CAA Forecast - Rhode Island

[jstclmet]

The Pluses:
1. New HC, but he was Ass't HC & DC in 2008.
2. 19 Starters Returning (8 Off, 9 Def, 2 St)
3. In addition to the above 19, RS Sr. Joe Casey returns to help bolster the running game and Ferrer who played in 12 games will also help in this regard.
4. QB xfer from RU, Etienne
5. OL comes back 3/5's full (RT Gross 280, RG Valley 305, LG Daniel 295), good size.
6. All 4 starting DL return. URI should be strong in the trenches.

The Negatives:

1. Only scored 18 ppg and gave up 32 ppg in 08 with those same starters.
2. Last year's OL was only able to muster 68.3 ypg rushing, and the def gave up 181.6 ypg rushing.
3. Last year's offense was built around the pass (probably Casey's injury had something to do with that), and had 238.4 PYPG, and the def gave up 216.5 PYPG.
4. This year's team will have to break in a QB to repeat what they did last year in the passing game.

The Questions:
1. Will Trainer continue in the "Pass first" mode, or will there be an attempt to mix pass & run in this year's offense.
2. QB?? RU Xfer Etienne or Stefkovich who played in 5 games last year.
3. While the cupboard is not bare with 19 returning starters, these are still the previous coach's recruits. Trainer has vowed to depend on the Seniors. How long before he transistions in younger players???

The Schedule:

9/5 vs Fordham. As much as I want to root for URI in this one (CAA Bias), I have to concede that FU appears stronger. Maybe, if this game was later in the year URI could have come away with the "W". But, as URI has to figure out it's offensive identity, it's in this writer's humble opinion, that URI will stumble out of the gates. FU will win this one on the road in a score eerily similar to last year's mark 16 - 7.

9/12 Bye

9/19 @ UMass. While UMass may not be as strong as past UMass teams, they're still strong enough to beat on a lesser talented URI team at home. URI loses big on the road 35 - 7.

9/26 @ UConn. Out of the frying pan into the fire. UConn runs up the score in a lopsided affair 45 - 0.

10/3 @ Brown. What doesn't kill you can only make you stronger. After the last two battles, URI runs and passes enough to win their first game of the year on the road 27 - 14.

10/10 vs Towson. URI's strength and experience up front enables the Rams to come away with a 17 - 14 win over TU.

10/17 vs Hofstra. Looking to build on the previous two "W's", and revenge a dissapointing loss from a season ago, URI wins in the closing seconds over HU 24 - 21.

10/24 @ Villanova. Nova's speed and strenght up front is too much for URI to bare, and URI falls 31 - 7.

10/31 vs William & Mary. URI faces another ranked team from the CAA South and endures the same fate as the Tribe does not let up in downing the Rams 33 - 10.

11/7 @ New Hampshire. For the third week in a row, the Rams face a ranked team, and UNH tests the Rams secondary early and often en route to a 44 - 21 win.

11/14 @ Maine. Facing a Maine team that's hungry for the playoffs, Maine scores 27 pts by halftime, then coasts to a 27 - 10 victory. Maine's 2nd team Def allows URI to score in the 4th qtr.

11/21 vs Northeastern. Playing for Pride, the Rams win the season finale in front of the home crowd 21 - 17.

CAA 3 - 5, Overall 4 - 7

[dgreco]

below .500 again.

[89Hen]

Too bad they don't play JMU... surely you'd pick URI to win that game. xsmiley_wix

BTW, who's the dummy that picked .500 with an 11 game schedule?

[jmufan999]

i've liked most of your predictions.... seems ok. i actually think 4-7 would be a decent season for them, especially with a new coach. i'll say 3-8..... 2-6 in the CAA. no slam against them of course, it's a tough conference and it takes time to build a program.

you know what else? here's another reason i like how you're doing these threads: you don't just throw out a score that sounds good just to be nice... you give a REALISTIC score. a lot of other people would say "URI loses a nailbiter to UConn".... no. they will be crushed horribly (like most FCS teams will be by FBS teams). and there's no shame in that. anyway, i appreciate the realism.

[Brad82]

Problem is schedule.
Who are RAMS going to beat?? Fordham-RI laid egg last year. UCONN-no way (barring miracle).
MASS and Brown=arch rivals. Real tough first month.
My prediction-first four games will make or break Rams. Need to go at least 2-2 to have shot at 6 win season. If Rhody goes 1-3 or 0-4 watch out.

[Tribe4SF]

Too bad they don't play JMU... surely you'd pick URI to win that game. xsmiley_wix

BTW, who's the dummy that picked .500 with an 11 game schedule?

The dummy who can read! Question was "excluding the FBS game...", which leaves 10 games.

Who da dummy now!:D

[89Hen]

The dummy who can read! Question was "excluding the FBS game...", which leaves 10 games.

Who da dummy now!:D
ME! :)

[Fordham]

Gonna be a great first game of the season. With Casey back and the rest of the guys they have returning, it should be an interesting opening round match-up for both of us.

[URMite]

Gonna be a great first game of the season. With Casey back and the rest of the guys they have returning, it should be an interesting opening round match-up for both of us.

I was wondering who Joe Cassidy was...:D

[bkrownd]

MASS and Brown=arch rivals.

"Arch rivals"? Nobody told US about that.... xeyebrowx

[unhfan1]

Has Cassidy recovered from the hit by Ware in the UNH game? The former head coach for URI
was fired up!

[Hoyadestroya85]

URI will be terrible again.. Villanova was sacking their qb last year by rushing 3 guys

[crusader11]

Wonder if URI's spread offense that they instilled last year will stick, or if the new coach will come in with his ideas. Methinks the spread goes to the grave.

[Cobblestone]

As much as I wanted to vote for above .500 I had to be realistic and go with < .500. I think what jstclmet posted was pretty accurate. We seem to be the masters of 4-7 seasons. We're always good for an upset and we can usually beat Brown and Northeastern. Once again it'll be another season in which I wish we'd leave the CAA.

But like Chris Berman says, that's why they play the game. Rizzi brought in some good recruits, we have some talent, Trainer appears to be running a disciplined program so who knows, we might shock some people... Me included.

[scotte303]

Above .500

[jpincince]

1. After watching the spring, I don't think there's any question - Etienne is the QB. And as well as Derek Cassidy did last year, given he had just one season in the system, Etienne should be better; he is more physically talented, he is smart, and the receiving corps should be quite good.

2. But they may have trouble giving Etienne enough time to throw the ball. I hope he throws well on the move, and I hope he can stay healthy.

3. They will stay with the spread, and they will try to run the ball and be balanced, but may have a tough time of it. I think they really need Casey to be his old self. I'm assuming he's fine, but I don't think we'll really know until the games start.

4. I think they've got a shot to sweep their home games; but I think 4-1 at home is a real possibility. Which means if they get one win out of a brutal road schedule (i.e. Brown), they could finish 5-6.

5. But I'll be holding out hope for 6-5 (or better!).

[Cobblestone]

1. After watching the spring, I don't think there's any question - Etienne is the QB. And as well as Derek Cassidy did last year, given he had just one season in the system, Etienne should be better; he is more physically talented, he is smart, and the receiving corps should be quite good.

2. But they may have trouble giving Etienne enough time to throw the ball. I hope he throws well on the move, and I hope he can stay healthy.

3. They will stay with the spread, and they will try to run the ball and be balanced, but may have a tough time of it. I think they really need Casey to be his old self. I'm assuming he's fine, but I don't think we'll really know until the games start.

4. I think they've got a shot to sweep their home games; but I think 4-1 at home is a real possibility. Which means if they get one win out of a brutal road schedule (i.e. Brown), they could finish 5-6.

5. But I'll be holding out hope for 6-5 (or better!).

I'm really not that worried about the offense. No question that Etienne is a good athlete and has no problem tucking the ball in and getting yardage. From what I saw in spring practice he throws pretty well on the move. If our O-line can protect him then he could very well win some games for us since we have some good WR's this season. If we bang Casey up the middle and run Lawrence to the outside then our attack will be balanced enough to keep opposing defenses honest.


Defense has been a problem over the years. Except for Glenn, I'm not too confident in our secondary. We need to really step it up on pass rushing. We're usually not that big up front on D so I'm hoping to see some creative blitzes from our DC.

I do like your optimism though.

GO RHODY!

[jstclmet]

Defense has been a problem over the years. Except for Glenn, I'm not too confident in our secondary. We need to really step it up on pass rushing. We're usually not that big up front on D so I'm hoping to see some creative blitzes from our DC.

I do like your optimism though.

GO RHODY!

One of the things I forgot to list under negatives, was that your DE's are on the smallish side (RDE - Adesanya 220, & LDE - Rae 230). If you guys can find another big body to put on the DL, you might be better off running a 3 - 4 or 3 - 3 5. Your 4 - 3 might get exposed off tackle.

Good luck

[Bos8]

I actually don't expect DE to be a problem at all. Steven Weedon, a one time WVU 3 star commit who was forced to go to JC then URI because of grades will be starting. He was impressive last year, until an injury cut his season short. In the first two games he had 15 tackles, and a sack. He has good size at 6'2'' 245 and is very fast. He is a converted linebacker, who can still back off into coverage. Adesanya had a very good spring game and seems to be much improved.
I think we may be able to get some pressure on the QB but coverage will be a problem. Other then Glenn our secondary is thin.

[Go...gate]

I went with .500. I think they have enough for five wins, though their opener will be difficult, with Fordham returning a number of veterans.

[scotte303]

With what I saw last year and what I saw in this spring game I feel they are a better team than last year. They have alot of talent on that team. Only time will tell, however we should be 4-2 going into nova and then we can beat W&M at home along with NE. Which brings us 6-5 Go Rhody!

[Dawg2Rhody]

I think that like Glenn was successfully converted to DB last season we will see Trainer convert another of the recruited athletes to DB and it will work out well.

[Tribe4SF]

With what I saw last year and what I saw in this spring game I feel they are a better team than last year. They have alot of talent on that team. Only time will tell, however we should be 4-2 going into nova and then we can beat W&M at home along with NE. Which brings us 6-5 Go Rhody!

You sound pretty confident about handling the Tribe. URI is 2-10 against W&M, with the only upset coming in 2005. If you can beat us, you may win more than 6.

[scotte303]

I think we competed with them well last year so you never know adding the "home field advantage".There is a ton of talent on the team, but the defense will have to step up and I feel they will. Not to squirm out of my statement however it was more of an "if" as opposed to a "then". Anyhow, you have to "BELIEVE". (That should draw a few fun comments)
:)

[Ram Ball]

I think that like Glenn was successfully converted to DB last season we will see Trainer convert another of the recruited athletes to DB and it will work out well

Does this happen as much at other schools as it does at URI? Anyone recruited as a running back in the 90's was likely to spend a year or 2 in the defensive secondary. If my memory serves me correctly, RB Shyron Sanford rushed for around 2,000 yards during his first 3 years, but that didn't prevent him from being converted to a cornerback as a senior. I'm not trying to take anything away from the many kids who ended up being starters on opposite sides of the ball in consecutive years. All I'm saying is, if you're a productive running back one year and become a linebacker or cornerback the next one, it's hard not to think that talent deficiencies at the defensive positions aren't indirectly responsible for the conversion.

Basketball's equivalent is trying to convert a shooting guard into a point.....another Rhody tradition.

[GeeWiz]

We're always good for an upset and we can usually beat Brown and Northeastern.


Usually? xeyebrowx

[VT Wildcat Fan53]

9/5 vs Fordham. URI 17, Fordham 10. Great start at home vs PL contender Rams.

9/12 Bye

9/19 @ UMass. UMass 28, URI 17. Tough road game at McGuirk.

9/26 @ UConn. UConn 55, URI 14. Tougher road game in Hartford.

10/3 @ Brown. URI 41, Brown 14. Huge win as Spread Offense clicks just up the road from home.

10/10 vs Towson. URI 31, Towson 10. URI goes 2-0 in October while Towson sinks fast.

10/17 vs Hofstra. URI 24, Hofstra 17. Rams love October, going 3-0 while another opponent starts an inexorable fade into the mid-season sunset.

10/24 @ Villanova. 'Nova 48, URI 10. Ooops, Main liners drop Rams to 4-3 overall.

10/31 vs William & Mary. URI 27, W&M 24, OT. Hope springs eternal as URI pulls upset of the CAA Year, dumping a contender in 3rd OT after an uncharacteristic defensive struggle! Rams rise to high water mark of 5-3.

11/7 @ New Hampshire. UNH 55, URI 48. What happened to Rams' newly discovered defense? In a game reminiscent of recent matches with the Wildcats, Rams rally late, but fall short in a shootout in Durham.

11/14 @ UMaine. UMaine 14, URI 7, OT. Snow and sleet in Orono shut down both teams. Black Bears' Turcotte scores twice -the 2nd in 1st OT -- to down Rams. URI falls to 5-5 with home finale coming up.

11/21 vs Northeastern. URI 38, NU 35. Celebration in Rhody as the Rams score with 10 seconds on the clock in Regulation to take down Hager's Huskies and finish with heads above water at 6-5 for the year! xpeacex

[Ivytalk]

Same old, same old!:p

[Sam Adams]

Casey's injury will be tough to overcome for the Rams.

[turbodean]

VT Wildcat - re: your Game 1 prediction, The fewset points Fordham scored in a game last year was 12 and that was in a victory (12 - 10) over Yale. I thik anyone that watched that game would tell you Fordham should have put up another 14-21 points, but offensive turnovers in the red zone precluded that.

It is quite widely believed that the Fordham offense under performed last year and led by Skelton and Martin will be more formidable this year. If URI is going to beat us, I think they're going to have to score more than 17 points.


9/5 vs Fordham. URI 17, Fordham 10. Great start at home vs PL contender Rams.

And that is going to be a whole lot tougher for them now after apparently losing Casey. Here's an article about his injury.

http://www.projo.com/sports/mikeszostak/sp_uri_casey_22_08-21-09_D7FFL9C_v3.1a9eef0.html

I really hate to read about stuff like this and wish him the best. However any team losing their #1 RB and starting a new QB (even a talented one) is going to have issues.

[Cobblestone]

VT Wildcat - re: your Game 1 prediction, The fewset points Fordham scored in a game last year was 12 and that was in a victory (12 - 10) over Yale. I thik anyone that watched that game would tell you Fordham should have put up another 14-21 points, but offensive turnovers in the red zone precluded that.

It is quite widely believed that the Fordham offense under performed last year and led by Skelton and Martin will be more formidable this year. If URI is going to beat us, I think they're going to have to score more than 17 points.



And that is going to be a whole lot tougher for them now after apparently losing Casey. Here's an article about his injury.

http://www.projo.com/sports/mikeszostak/sp_uri_casey_22_08-21-09_D7FFL9C_v3.1a9eef0.html

I really hate to read about stuff like this and wish him the best. However any team losing their #1 RB and starting a new QB (even a talented one) is going to have issues.

The loss of Casey hurts big time. It certainly will take away some of our balance on offense. However, from what I saw in spring practice we've still got some talent back there. I also like our WR corps and Etiene (spelling?) can pass and run very well. If he can get the time from the OL then I think we'll be alright on offense even without Casey. We also have an OC who calls a good game.

My concern (again) is defense. We've got a few bright spots but I'll still be holding my breath on 3rd and long plays....