Top FCS teams versus non-BCS FBS

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Simple question: What percentage of the non-BCS teams would an average top-5 (a team that is a true, legit top-5 but still average for a top-5) FCS team beat?

[Reign of Terrier]

I said 40-50 because I think they could do it half the time but conservatively I put us on the shorter stick

[ToTheLeft]

I said 30-40%. "Would beat" is different than "could beat". I think if it was "could beat" I would answer 70-80%. But I don't think FCS schools could habitually beat Non-BCS schools more often than not.

[Gil Dobie]

Top 5 FCS could win 9 out of 10

NDSU beat a Central Michigan team by over 30, and Central Michigan went on to lose to Purdue on a last second FG in a Bowl Game. NDSU also beat Ball St a couple years ago. Last year an average NDSU team lost to Wyoming in the final seconds.

Toughest games, IMO, would be against the very top NON-BCS FBS schools like Boise St or Utah.

[dgreco]

30%

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Top 5 FCS could win 9 out of 10
NDSU beat a Central Michigan team by over 30, and Central Michigan went on to lose to Purdue on a last second FG in a Bowl Game. NDSU also beat Ball St a couple years ago. Last year an average NDSU team lost to Wyoming in the final seconds.
.

My thinking exactly. It's also worth pointing out that that CMU team you guys clobbered won the MAC championships that same year. Other games that come to mind are UNH's win over Marshall, McNeese State's 38-17 win against a mid-level Sun Belt team in 2007, Portland State's win over New Mexico, and Nicholls State's win over Rice. And on top of that considering that only two of those FCS teams made the playoffs and both were eliminated in the first round. These also among BCS wins (UNH [2], App. State, UC Davis, Montana State, NDSU, and UNI) that seem to have piled up recently.

I also base my reasoning on the fact that elite FCS programs frequently take recruits from most of the non-BCS teams. Many of GSU's signees had offers from non-BCS FBS schools, and I know that our recruiting clas is not head-and-shoulders above the rest of the FCS.

[uofmman1122]

Went with 30%-40%, but I could see it being as high as 60%.

It's extremely hard to say, though. It's almost entirely speculation, since most lower level non-BCS conference teams don't want to play top FCS teams, and vice versa, since lower non-BCS teams can't offer big payouts.

At the same time, though, I still think they would win at least around half of the time. The extra scholarships and notoriety make enough difference, IMO.

[89Hen]

I think it may be helpful to see who this includes...

Southern Mississippi
East Carolina
Memphis
Central Florida
Marshall
Alabama-Birmingham
Houston
Tulsa
Southern Methodist
Rice
Tulane
Texas-El Paso
Notre Dame
Western Kentucky
Army
Navy
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Akron
Ohio
Buffalo
Kent State
Temple
Central Michigan
Toledo
Ball State
Western Michigan
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Brigham Young
San Diego State
Utah
Wyoming
Air Force
Colorado State
Texas Christian
New Mexico
Nevada-Las Vegas
Middle Tennessee State
Troy
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Florida International
Boise State
Fresno State
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
Hawaii
San Jose State
Utah State
Idaho
New Mexico State

[appmaj]

70%

[89Hen]

I"ll put them in three categories....

Extremely doubful (won't say anything stronger after App/Mich)
Southern Mississippi
East Carolina
Memphis
Central Florida
Tulsa
Notre Dame
Ball State
Brigham Young
Utah
Colorado State
Texas Christian
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii


Could be
Marshall
Alabama-Birmingham
Houston
Southern Methodist
Rice
Tulane
Texas-El Paso
Western Kentucky
Navy
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Akron
Ohio
Temple
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Toledo
Northern Illinois
San Diego State
Air Force
New Mexico
Nevada-Las Vegas
Middle Tennessee State
Troy
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
San Jose State
Utah State
New Mexico State

Should be
Army
Buffalo
Kent State
Eastern Michigan
Wyoming
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Florida International
Idaho

[89Hen]

70%
Seriously?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I think I left too much ambiguity in the quesiton.
xoopsx

[89Hen]

I think I left too much ambiguity in the quesiton.
xoopsx
You chose 80-90%. I'd like to see you go through the list of teams I posted and show the 80% you think I-AA top 5 would beat. xpeacex

[Gil Dobie]

I re-catgorized them. I would consider a loss to the should be's a bad loss. This is the top 5 of FCS, they should win those games, 9 out of 10 times.


I"ll put them in three categories....

Could Be (won't say anything stronger after App/Mich)
Southern Mississippi
East Carolina
Memphis
Central Florida
Tulsa
Notre Dame BCS School
Ball State - NDSU Win
Brigham Young - UNI Loss
Utah
Colorado State
Texas Christian
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii


Should be
Marshall
Alabama-Birmingham
Houston
Southern Methodist
Rice
Tulane
Texas-El Paso
Western Kentucky
Navy
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Akron
Ohio
Temple
Central Michigan NDSU win by 30+
Western Michigan
Toledo
Northern Illinois
San Diego State
Air Force
New Mexico
Nevada-Las Vegas
Middle Tennessee State
Troy
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
San Jose State
Utah State
New Mexico State
Army
Buffalo
Kent State
Eastern Michigan
Wyoming
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Florida International
Idaho

[ToTheLeft]

I"ll put them in three categories....

Extremely doubful (won't say anything stronger after App/Mich)
Southern Mississippi
East Carolina
Memphis
Central Florida
Tulsa
Notre Dame
Ball State
Brigham Young
Utah
Colorado State
Texas Christian
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii


Could be
Marshall
Alabama-Birmingham
Houston
Southern Methodist
Rice
Tulane
Texas-El Paso
Western Kentucky
Navy
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Akron
Ohio
Temple
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Toledo
Northern Illinois
San Diego State
Air Force
New Mexico
Nevada-Las Vegas
Middle Tennessee State
Troy
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
San Jose State
Utah State
New Mexico State

Should be
Army
Buffalo
Kent State
Eastern Michigan
Wyoming
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Florida International
Idaho

Well done, 89! I agree.

[89Hen]

I re-catgorized them. I would consider a loss to the should be's a bad loss. This is the top 5 of FCS, they should win those games, 9 out of 10 times.
I'll have what you're having and make mine a double. C'mon Gil, you can't be serious. xlolx

[appmaj]

Seriously?

Well maybe 60%

On your list
Extremely Doubtful represent 25%, Could Be 58%, Should Be 16%
Of 5 teams that would represent: approx 1, 2, 1

Give the FCS the should be 1 + 20%
And at least one of the Could be + 20%
If you give them a fair chance say 85% chance of winning the other could be + 15%
If you give them a little chance say 25% of winning the extremely doubtful +5%

for a total of 60% so I guess my homerism made me jump up a little.

[89Hen]

The top 5, yes...
So on the groupings I did, you have them beating all but two of the could be and should be list. You and Gil have awfullly high expectations. Guys...

Duke 31 - JMU 7
Virginia 16 - Richmond 0


LSU 41 - AppSt 13
LSU 40 - Troy 31
LSU 35 - Tulane 10

BYU 41 - UNI 17
BYU 31 - Utah State 14
BYU 21 - New Mexico 3
BYU 42 - UNLV 35

Northwestern 33 - SIU 7
Northwestern 16 - Ohio 8

[Gil Dobie]

I'll have what you're having and make mine a double. C'mon Gil, you can't be serious. xlolx

So then NDSU must have been much better than everyone was saying by beating an extremely doubtful, and a could be MAC Champion by over 30 points.

I think it's that I have more confidence in the top 5 of FCS.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

You chose 80-90%. I'd like to see you go through the list of teams I posted and show the 80% you think I-AA top 5 would beat. xpeacex

Depends on whether or not you are talking about this year's FCS top-5 versus this year's non-BCS teams. I noticed you mentioned Colorado State. Maybe if that program is where it is competing for the MWC championship every year I'd put it in the first category.

Long-shot
only the very best BCS teams...the non-BCS teams that have a chance to get a BCS bowl bid.

10-20 point FBS favorite
The top-tier teams from CUSA, the best teams from the Mountain West and WAC that do not fit into first category

Coin flip
Top-tier teams from the MAC and 2 or so Sun Belt teams, middle-of-the-pack teams from CUSA, MWC, and WAC

Slight FCS favorite
Mid-level Sun Belt teams, Mid-level MAC teams, bottom quarter of the CUSA

Solid FCS favorite
lower level teams from the Sun Belt, MAC, Army, Navy (when they aren't as well coached as they have been with PK)

On a given year, I'd put 4 in the first category, 10 in the second, 17 in the third, 16 in the fourth, and 8 in the last one (there's 55 non-BCS teams in all if you count Western Kentucky, if my count is right).

If you count the last three categories, that's 74.5%. So yeah, I think I overestimated my own count a bit.

[89Hen]

If you count the last three categories, that's 74.5%. So yeah, I think I overestimated my own count a bit.
And that's assuming ALL the "coin flips" and "slights" go our way. xpeacex

[89Hen]

So then NDSU must have been much better than everyone was saying by beating an extremely doubtful, and a could be MAC Champion by over 30 points.

I think it's that I have more confidence in the top 5 of FCS.
Ball State 2006 is a far cry from Ball State 2008. You said 9 of 10. Do you think NDSU beats BSU last year?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

And that's assuming ALL the "coin flips" and "slights" go our way. xpeacex

I agree with you there. And that's where the ambiguity is. I wanted people to count them. I should have been more clear.


So on the groupings I did, you have them beating all but two of the could be and should be list. You and Gil have awfullly high expectations. Guys...

Duke 31 - JMU 7
Virginia 16 - Richmond 0


LSU 41 - AppSt 13
LSU 40 - Troy 31
LSU 35 - Tulane 10

BYU 41 - UNI 17
BYU 31 - Utah State 14
BYU 21 - New Mexico 3
BYU 42 - UNLV 35

Northwestern 33 - SIU 7
Northwestern 16 - Ohio 8

There's always a way to make side-by-side game comparisons to argue either way.

ECU loses to UVA by 15
Richmond loses to UVA by 16

ECU loses to NC State by 14
W&M loses to NC State by 10

Arkansas beats Western Illinois by 4
Arkansas beats Tulsa by 7

Sacremento State loses to Colorado State by 3
Houston loses to Colorado State by 3

Wyoming beats Ohio by 1
Wyoming beats NDSU by 3

EWU loses to Texas Tech by 24
Nevada loses to Texas Tech by 26
SMU loses to Texas Tech by 36

EWU loses to Colorado by 7
Colorado State loses to Colorado by 21

Ball State beats Northeastern by 34
Hofstra beats Northeastern by 28

Maryland beats Delaware by 7
Maryland beats Eastern Michigan by 27

Auburn beats UTM by 17
Auburn beats Southern Miss by 14

Georgia beats Georgia Southern by 24
Georgia beats Central Michigan by 39

UNH beats Army by 18
Army beats Tulane by 31

[89Hen]

There's always a way to make side-by-side game comparisons to argue either way.
FWIW, I wasn't really using mine to show that those particular I-AA's would lose to the I-A's but more to show Gil that 9 out of 10 and a loss being a "disappointment" was VERY far fetched.

[Gil Dobie]

Ball State 2006 is a far cry from Ball State 2008. You said 9 of 10. Do you think NDSU beats BSU last year?

Last year NDSU was not a top 5 team, but NDSU of 2007 could have beat them.

[Gil Dobie]

FWIW, I wasn't really using mine to show that those particular I-AA's would lose to the I-A's but more to show Gil that 9 out of 10 and a loss being a "disappointment" was VERY far fetched.

A loss to a "Should Be" is a disappointment, a loss to a "Could be" is still a disappointment. NDSU did beat the MAC champion in 2007 by over 30 points

[89Hen]

Last year NDSU was not a top 5 team, but NDSU of 2007 could have beat them.
Could or would? xeyebrowx

[Gil Dobie]

Could or would? xeyebrowx

Well they beat the MAC Champion in 2007 by over 30 points xrulesx

[89Hen]

Well they beat the MAC Champion in 2007 by over 30 points xrulesx
You can't bring yourself to say it though, can you? xsmiley_wix

[Gil Dobie]

You can't bring yourself to say it though, can you? xsmiley_wix

I had them in the "Could be" Catagory :D

[turfdoc]

Just a quick fact.

There was a time from the mid 90s to 2003 or so that the Gateway (MVFC) had a winning record against the MAC, including a couple of games with InSU in there

[Ronbo]

I think it may be helpful to see who this includes...

Southern Mississippi
East Carolina
Memphis
Central Florida
Marshall
Alabama-Birmingham
Houston
Tulsa
Southern Methodist
Rice
Tulane
Texas-El Paso
Notre Dame
Western Kentucky
Army
Navy
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Akron
Ohio
Buffalo
Kent State
Temple
Central Michigan
Toledo
Ball State
Western Michigan
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Brigham Young
San Diego State
Utah
Wyoming
Air Force
Colorado State
Texas Christian
New Mexico
Nevada-Las Vegas
Middle Tennessee State
Troy
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Florida International
Boise State
Fresno State
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
Hawaii
San Jose State
Utah State
Idaho
New Mexico State

There is only 4-5 teams here that wouldn't go 12-2 in FCS. GET REAL! San Jose State beat #3 EWU and Idaho beat #5 Cal Poly the last couple years. What did FCS go last season 3-85 against FBS? If you took the last 5 years it might be 20-350, anyone want to look that up?

[Gil Dobie]

There is only 4-5 teams here that wouldn't go 12-2 in FCS. GET REAL! San Jose State beat #3 EWU and Idaho beat #5 Cal Poly the last couple years. What did FCS go last season 3-85 against FBS? If you took the last 5 years it might be 20-350, anyone want to look that up?

I wouldn't expect a MAC team to win the MVFC more than once or twice a decade.

[89Hen]

Just a quick fact.

There was a time from the mid 90s to 2003 or so that the Gateway (MVFC) had a winning record against the MAC, including a couple of games with InSU in there
I believe it. I recall YSU owning Kent State for a while. xthumbsupx

[JDC325]

A lot lower than folks think. It is hard to overcome the scholly difference. Almost all are getting equal or better talent. So if you have 22 more guys to run out there your just more likely to have way better depth and find sleeper players.