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View Full Version : Big Sky Preview Week 8



catbob
October 19th, 2005, 02:47 PM
Yet again I was off by one game last week. After watching the Griz handle ISU, I thought they could give EWU fits at home. Meyer was simply unstoppable, with the help of Kimble and Cole.

My percentage so far is 78.95%, 15 for 19. I haven't missed more than one game per week, but I haven't aced any either.

This week has one team playing outside the Sky, and 3 other conference games. MSU has the only bye of the week.

Northern Arizona @ #24 Portland State
- Week after week I keep telling everyone that Murietta is going to have his breakout game. Well I'm not going to say it this week. It is looking more and more like his freshman year was a fluke. He is less than 50% on the year, average only 187.67 YPG, with 9 TDs and 8 INTs. About the best thing NAU has going for itself offensively is their kicker, who is 18/18 on XPs and 8/8 for FGs. NAU is giving up 165.8 rushing YPG, and that number is going to be increased after they face the brutal rushing attack of PSU. The Viks could very well have the best line in the Big Sky. They all average over 300 pounds and they get a great push off the ball. Rubin doesn't usually get hit until he has already gone 3 yards, and is very hard to bring down one on one. PSU put up it's best offensive performance of the season last week vs MSU. While MSU has the worst run defense in the Sky, it was ultimately the passing of Sawyer Smith that won that game. He was 17/25 for 252 yards and 2 TDs against a pretty good pass defense. Everyone was worried about PSU if they could find even just an average passing game. If Smith can keep up his efficient passing game, PSU has a good shot of making the playoffs, with the bulk of the hard games out of the way (EWU, MSU). NAU has been outscored in its 3 conference matchups by a total of 111-58. Their only wins have been against DII Adams State, and GWFC cellar dwellar Southern Utah. With PSU's win vs MSU last week, there might be a few more fans at PGE park than normal. I'll give NAU the benefit of the doubt by saying they can't play worse defensively than MSU did, but there is no way they can put up as much as will be needed to beat PSU.
What to watch : Smith (QB for PSU) had a solid day, his first solid day of the season. If PSU can add a passing threat to their already stellar running game, this team could be scary good.
- 20-34

Idaho State @ Sacramento State
- Idaho State got a much needed bye after consecutive losses to the Montana schools. After beating EWU at home, the Bengals were riding high, and even climbed into the polls. But upon further review, they may have been overrated as a team. The victory against EWU, they had only one of their 6 scoring drives go for more than 40 yards. ISU's special teams and the sloppy play of EWU's offense were the main reason the Bengals won this game. After two straight losses, and a bye week, ISU resumes conference play at perennial bottom feeder, Sac State. The Hornets only wins were against NAU (who would've though NAU would be worse than Sac?), and NAIA Azusa Pacific. In their four losses, Mole was held in check and Sac could only muster up a game-high of 14 points. That would be okay if you had a defense that could stop teams from scoring, but Sac gives up over 30 per game. And last week vs an average Weber defense, they only gained 258 total yards. But they gave up a lot of rushing yards to a good rushing Weber team, and ISU is exactly that. Barnett and Cornist are just shy of 500 yards each for the Bengals on the season. If Sac can get out and contain the run, ISU will have to rely on their QB to win the game. Hagler has thrown just 4 TDs to 10 INTs. He will not beat you on his own. However, I do not think ISU will have to rely on Hagler, or even Sniewski, whomever gets the start. ISU may have been overrated, but I don't see them dropping 3 straight, especially to the Hornets.
What to watch : The two-headed duo of Cornist and Barnett is about all the Bengals have going offensively. Fortunately for them, that is all they will need.
- 28-17

Weber State @ #5 Eastern Washington
- Weber has turned a few heads this season. Even though they fell short at UM and at home vs MSU, they looked like a pretty solid squad all around. They beat NAU on the road (that didn't turn out to be anything special), and beat Sac at home. They are 2-0 in games they should've won, and 0-2 in games they weren't supposed to win. They are soon going to be 0-3. The Eagles are playing like everyone thought they would be, and perhaps even better. Ryan Cole has added new depth to the Eagle offense, giving them a solid running game week after week. Last week he ran for 99 yards against a tough UM defense. But the story of that game was no surprise - Meyer to Kimble. Meyer to Kimble. Meyer to McIntrye. Wait, who is that? He only caught 6 balls for 134 yards and 3 TDs. He gives Meyer another threat to throw to, and teams can no longer just focus on Kimble. So what can Weber do to stop Meyer and Co.? Play a perfect defensive game. If they stop the run, EWU can pass all day. If they someone stop the pass, EWU can beat you on the ground. If they can force Meyer into making bad decisions, they might have have a chance to keep the score within their range. To do this, Fosmark is going to have to come up big. He is a threat in every game, although he has only registered 4 sacks thus far. EWU's defense is suspect, even after a solid performance last week vs UM. I just think there are only maybe 5 defenses in the country that could hold EWU to under 25. Unfortunately for Weber, they aren't one of them, especially on the road.
What to watch : The entire EWU offense. They are fun to watch, averaging 511 yards per game and 36.7 points per.
- 22-38

#2 Cal Poly @ #10 Montana
- Oh boy. This game is going to be fun to watch! Luckily my Cats are off so I'll be watching this game with much anticipation. The Griz haven't faced a defense like this all year. Oregon's defense might not even be as good. Cal Poly sits at just #12 in total defense on the year, but there is one key stat you have to look at. They have had 419 plays, more than anyone in the top 20. They are on the field more than they should have to be. Their flex defense confuses most opponents, except possibly very veteran units. They face no such offense this weekend, as they travel to UM to take on Redshirt Freshman Cole Berquist and the Montana Grizzlies. Berquist had a solid day against EWU last week, but most of his stats were accumulated late in the 3rd and into the 4th as the Griz tried to play catchup.
He was 25/40 for 246 yards and 1 TD. Not a bad showing by any means, and certainly the best showing by a Griz QB this season. One telling stat though - the Griz only had 88 yards of TOTAL offense in the first half! It goes to show how good the Griz defense is, keeping them in the game as long as they did. Fortunately for the Griz, Cal Poly isn't near as explosive as the #2 offense in the nation, the EWU Eagles, are. Bad sentence structure I know. But the Mustangs have a formidable running game with James Noble, amassing 575 yards in just 5 games. Fortunately for the Griz, I think the Griz defense is well-equipped to handle the option attack of Cal Poly. They are swarming and quick to the ball. They won't be able to shut them down, but they will be able to contain them and keep UM in the game. Garnett (CP QB) has not had to throw the ball more than 23 times in a game all season, and has only thrown 2 INTs (both to SDSU). The Mustangs rely on the running game to setup the pass, which is why Garnett hasn't thrown all that much. Garnett is also a good runner, rushing for 7 TDs while throwing 5. While I don't think the Poly offense will overwhelm the Griz defense, I believe their defense will overwhelm the Griz offense. Poly gives up just 103 yards per game on the ground, and the Griz main offensive weapon is Lex Hilliard. If Hilliard gets his 100, it will be on at least 30 carries. If the Griz offense can stay on the field long enough to wear down the Mustange defense, I like the Griz in a thriller at home. If the Griz offense is shut down, I like Cal Poly by a slighty bigger margin. I know it sounds crazy to think the Griz will drop 2 straight at home (has that ever happened at WA-Griz?), but in all fairness I picked them to win last week. I just don't see them overcoming this Mustang defense, even at home.
What to watch : Chris Gocong has 11.5 sacks on the season. Look for him to put pressure on Berquist all day.
- 17-13

Possible upset of the week: NAU over PSU
Best matchup: CP @ UM
Worst matchup: Weber @ EWU

grizbeer
October 19th, 2005, 03:18 PM
I know it sounds crazy to think the Griz will drop 2 straight at home (has that ever happened at WA-Griz?), but in all fairness I picked them to win last week. I just don't see them overcoming this Mustang defense, even at home.
What to watch : Chris Gocong has 11.5 sacks on the season. Look for him to put pressure on Berquist all day.
- 17-13

Possible upset of the week: NAU over PSU
Best matchup: CP @ UM
Worst matchup: Weber @ EWU
Montana lost 2 home games in a row in 1999 - to Idaho, then 2 weeks later to Youngstown State in a 1st round playoff game.

My pick for an upset is Weber over EWU - sounds crazy, but I like the match-ups, I think EWU might be a little over-confident after last weeks win, and I think McBride will have Weber believing they can win.

Thanks for the weekly analysis, it's fun to read.

MR. CHICKEN
October 19th, 2005, 08:00 PM
CAT BOOB....WHOOPS AH MEAN BOB........GREAT INSIGHT TA DUH BIG FLUFFY...WEEK 8.....CATS LIKE YA'LL MAKE DIS...."ANY GIVEN"....WHORFF WHILE PARTICIPATION!......:nod:....BRAWK!

JALMOND
October 20th, 2005, 03:00 AM
Oh Mighty Catbob, you go against your own team and come out smelling like a rose (or I think that smells like a rose). Here are my picks...

NAU@PSU---Big win for the Vikings last weekend against Montana State and Lulay. NAU was off so they had time to work on righting the ship, if possible. Vikings due for a letdown for this game is scheduled between the two Montana schools. I hope it is not too big a letdown...PSU 24, NAU 20.

ISU@Sac St---ISU had a bye week so they had two weeks to prepare. Did they prepare for the Hornets who seem tough at home recently?...Upset Sac St 28, ISU 20.

Weber@EWU---How good is Weber? Can they beat EWU in Cheney? I say no on both counts---EWU 38, Weber 10.

Cal Poly@Montana---The big game this week in I-AA. Will the Griz drop two in a row at Wash-Griz? Can the Mustangs beat the Griz in Missoula? How good are the Mustangs? The game will live up to the hype and the Mustangs will have their chances but in the end...Griz 24, Cal Poly 23.

grizbeer
October 22nd, 2005, 10:02 PM
Montana lost 2 home games in a row in 1999 - to Idaho, then 2 weeks later to Youngstown State in a 1st round playoff game.

My pick for an upset is Weber over EWU - sounds crazy, but I like the match-ups, I think EWU might be a little over-confident after last weeks win, and I think McBride will have Weber believing they can win.

Thanks for the weekly analysis, it's fun to read.
I don't want to say I told you so about Weber/EWU --- wait, yes I do. Just Kidding, I still think 2 losses in conference play wins the BSC. Unfortunately that means it will difficult to get more than 2 teams in, if that.