Fact or Fiction: The SoCon and CAA could take 7 of the playoff AL bids

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

This seems to be the big discussion in all of the playoff talk threads so far. It is entirely possible that both conferences will have 7 total 8+ win teams in addition to the two teams that take the autobids in their respective conferences.

And also, if there are more than a few 8-3 teams left out, does that increase the chances of having a playoff expansion for next year?

[Dane96]

YUP, YUP, YUP.

As our people at Albany stated early on to me "Watch when the good teams of the CAA miss the playoffs....sell them on that."

As some of these conferences get stronger...they will want more AL's.

[blur2005]

They clearly can't take all eight of them because of Southern Illinois, unless you seriously believe that the Salukis are about to lose three in a row.

[Peems]

Well the Gateway will definitely have one. The Big Sky could get EWU, Southland could get Nicholls St.. There could be quite a few up for grabs...

[McNeese_beat]

This seems to be the big discussion in all of the playoff talk threads so far. It is entirely possible that both conferences will have 7 total 8+ win teams in addition to the two teams that take the autobids in their respective conferences.

And also, if there are more than a few 8-3 teams left out, does that increase the chances of having a playoff expansion for next year?

Absolutely. It's not only a possibility, it's likely. The SLC, OVC, the Patriot and, probably, the Big Sky and MEAC are one-bid leagues. The Gateway is probably a two-bid league. The Great West and Big South don't appear to have playoff teams. That means, potentially, after SIU gets its at-large bid, there will be nothing left to choose from BUT Colonial and Southern conference teams.

It would be interesting if the MEAC has two 9-2 teams. If anybody in the Big Sky second-tier teams gets to 8-3, they'll be in.

Here's a question: What if EWU goes 8-3 with a win at Northern Arizona AND Montana State beats Montana to go 8-3...

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

They clearly can't take all eight of them because of Southern Illinois, unless you seriously believe that the Salukis are about to lose three in a row.

Only if SIU loses two or three of the next 3 games, which I don't think they will. They do have three tough games ahead, though.

[GaSouthern]

Socon looks like it will get 4 teams this year, if GSU gets beat this weekend then probably 3 teams. (including auto-bids)

[BlueHen86]

I think 6 at the most. There are some head to head matches in the CAA last few weeks, that may eliminate some teams (Delaware has JMU, Richmond, and at Villanova none of which will be easy). I wouldn't be surprized if the number ended up at 5.

[TexasTerror]

Well the Gateway will definitely have one. The Big Sky could get EWU, Southland could get Nicholls St.. There could be quite a few up for grabs...

Nicholls St can already not reach the seven Div I wins. The rest of the conference is eliminated outside of McNeese...

[Peems]

Absolutely. It's not only a possibility, it's likely. The SLC, OVC, the Patriot and, probably, the Big Sky and MEAC are one-bid leagues. The Gateway is probably a two-bid league. The Great West and Big South don't appear to have playoff teams. That means, potentially, after SIU gets its at-large bid, there will be nothing left to choose from BUT Colonial and Southern conference teams.

It would be interesting if the MEAC has two 9-2 teams. If anybody in the Big Sky second-tier teams gets to 8-3, they'll be in.

Here's a question: What if EWU goes 8-3 with a win at Northern Arizona AND Montana State beats Montana to go 8-3...

I assume you predict the Griz will win the other games besides the MSU game for your scenario...Therefore UM would get the autobid and in my estimation EWU would get in over MSU for the following reasons. They beat them head to head, and don't have a "bad" loss.

[OL FU]

Four teams from each conference is possible. But I think even that is unlikely. Four from the CAA and Three from the SoCon. The Committee will probably do their best to limit it to that.

The Gate way gets two. UNI and SIU. OVC gets two EKU and EIU unless someone else sneaks in like JSU but I doubt it but even then the OVC does not get more than two . Big Sky gets two if EWU continues to win. This weekends loss may have doomed MSU. I suppose a win over UM would offset it but losing to a team that has not won this year is going to be tough to over come.

The Southland was looking like two but Nicholls loss hurts. Is Central Arkansas eligible?

The PL, One
The MEAC, One

[TexasTerror]

The Southland was looking like two but Nicholls loss hurts. Is Central Arkansas eligible?

Nicholls loss takes away chance of two...

UCA is not eligible. They have a few more years. This is only their second year...they could end up winning SLC title which will be played for in Lake Charles, La if UCA and McN keep taking care of business...

[blur2005]

As someone just pointed out in the playoff prognostication thread, Cal Poly could upset North Dakota State and be a very viable at-large option, though this scenario is unlikely.

[Syntax Error]

As someone just pointed out in the playoff prognostication thread, Cal Poly could upset North Dakota State and be a very viable at-large option, though this scenario is unlikely.Dunno, CP beat NDSU last time in SLO.

This is the best time of year besides the opening weeks. Spoilers and boilers!

[Cincy App]

I really only expect these two conferences to get 5 of the at-large bids - 3 for the CAA and 2 for the SoCon. These 2 conferences could easily have 7 of the 8 most deserving at-large teams but historically the Playoff Selection Committee likes to spread the wealth.

If EWU or EIU win out, they will likely make the field. Delaware St would likely make the field even if they finish in 2nd place in the MEAC at 9-2. Holy Cross would have a respectable chance at 8-3 (although I expect them to beat Fordham). Southern Illinois is just about a lock unless they fall apart down the stretch. WIU is still alive if they can win out.

It's hard to project with 3 weeks to play. It will be interesting how some of the non-CAA or SoCon at-large candidates get considered. But don't count them out yet.

[MSUfan2010]

I really only expect these two conferences to get 5 of the at-large bids - 3 for the CAA and 2 for the SoCon. These 2 conferences could easily have 7 of the 8 most deserving at-large teams but historically the Playoff Selection Committee likes to spread the wealth.

If EWU or EIU win out, they will likely make the field. Delaware St would likely make the field even if they finish in 2nd place in the MEAC at 9-2. Holy Cross would have a respectable chance at 8-3 (although I expect them to beat Fordham). Southern Illinois is just about a lock unless they fall apart down the stretch. WIU is still alive if they can win out.

It's hard to project with 3 weeks to play. It will be interesting how some of the non-CAA or SoCon at-large candidates get considered. But don't count them out yet.

That was going to be my question. Does a 8-3 WIU team get in with wins over SIU and YSU?

[MSUfan2010]

I voted 5 but after some research and some predicting, I think it will be 3 total from the SoCon(Wofford,Elon and App St) and 3 from the CAA (UMass,UNH,UD).

I had JMU,Hofstra,and Richmond all finishing at 8-3 but I think there will be other teams that finish better (Del St) and then other 8-3 teams that will be taken before a 4th is taken from these conferences.

[BearsCountry]

That was going to be my question. Does a 8-3 WIU team get in with wins over SIU and YSU?

You would think since the two FCS loses would be to UNI and North Dakota State.

[appstate38]

Unfortunately I think it will go 4-2 CAA to SoCon. If we get lucky it could be 3-3 but we will have to wait to see how the remaining few weeks play out... Some of those contenders will play themselves out of contention by then.

[UDBlueLotFan]

The CAA gets 4 in no matter how you slice it and dice itxthumbsupx
UMass
UNH
UD*
Richmond*
JMU*

*2 of the 3 will get in. Time will tellxcoffeex xwhistlex

[HiddenGriz]

Fiction....

[GrizRchattybound]

The CAA gets 4 in no matter how you slice it and dice itxthumbsupx
UMass
UNH
UD*
Richmond*
JMU*

*2 of the 3 will get in. Time will tellxcoffeex xwhistlex

xnodx

A shame that one or two of these won't make it, but probably the truth.

[GrizDen]

The CAA gets 4 in no matter how you slice it and dice itxthumbsupx
UMass
UNH
UD*
Richmond*
JMU*

*2 of the 3 will get in. Time will tellxcoffeex xwhistlex

Agreed...the CAA is in full effect this year. I'd love the commissioners of the Big Sky and CAA to get together and sign a 4 year deal where there are 4 games each year between schools from the respective confernences. Obviously it would be an equal split of home games.

They could either set it up where 4 teams from each conference play two home-and-home series. Or 8 teams play one home-and-home series during the four year period.

**Yes, the Griz would be required to play the AWAY game(s) first so as not to have the option of buying out of the contractxthumbsupx

[blur2005]

Let's be serious, the CAA will have at least four teams. I think they'll manage to get five, mainly because no one from the OVC or Big Sky besides the auto-bid winners will get to 8 wins (my take on the situation).

[Mr. Tiger]

CAA will get 4 and SoCon will get 2. Georgia Southern has to win against Wofford and Furman to sneak in, I say they get tripped up.

[McNeese_beat]

I assume you predict the Griz will win the other games besides the MSU game for your scenario...Therefore UM would get the autobid and in my estimation EWU would get in over MSU for the following reasons. They beat them head to head, and don't have a "bad" loss.

How would Montana State's stack up against, say, the 4th team out of the Colonial or the 4th out of the Southern?

I'm saying an 8-3 Montana State with a win over Montana would have a fair resume.

[CamelCityAppFan]

It is possible for the SoCon to have 3 teams finish with a 9-2 record (ASU, Wofford, Elon), and I don't see keeping a 9-2 out.

You could also have an 8-3 Georgia Southern in that mix, but GSU would probably need help from another conference to get in.