2018 MVFC Pick 'em: Week 11

[Professor Chaos]

5 home underdogs this week. Based on the spreads there's only one game that'll have much variation in the straight up picks but I get the feeling that two of them will see a pretty good split:



Away Team
Home Team
Favorite
Day
Time (CT)
TV


Northern Iowa
Youngstown State
UNI by 15
Sat 11/10
11AM
ESPN+


Illinois State
Indiana State
ISUr by 13
Sat 11/10
12PM
ESPN3


Western Illinois
South Dakota
WIU by 3.5
Sat 11/10
1PM
ESPN+


South Dakota State
Southern Illinois
SDSU by 19
Sat 11/10
1PM
ESPN+


North Dakota State
Missouri State
NDSU by 30.5
Sat 11/10
2PM
ESPN+




Here's the copy/paste list:

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State


As usual feel free to pick straight up, against the spread, or both. Here's the standings from after last week in case you missed them: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?216622-2018-MVFC-Pick-em-Week-10&p=2703171&viewfull=1#post2703171


And here's everyone's record against the spread so far this year:



Team
W
L
Win %


ISUb
8
1
88.9%


SDSU
6
2
75.0%


NDSU
6
3
66.7%


ISUr
5
4
55.6%


UNI
5
4
55.6%


SIU
4
5
44.4%


MSU
3
6
33.3%


WIU
3
6
33.3%


YSU
3
6
33.3%


USD
2
7
22.2%

[Sycamore62]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

Straight up Spread

[TheKingpin28]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

Bold wins
Red covers spread

[Gil Dobie]

Northern Iowa @ Youngstown State
Illinois State @ Indiana State
Western Illinois @ South Dakota
South Dakota State @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State @ Missouri State

[cx500d]

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Western Illinois
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

[bonarae]

UNI
Illinois State
WIU
SDSU
NDSU

[dustinthorn93]

Northern Iowa
Indiana State
South Dakota
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

[ST_Lawson]

Straight
Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

Spread
Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[footballer23]

Northern Iowa (-15) to win, Youngstown State to cover
Illinois State (-13) to win and cover
Western Illinois (-3.5) to win and cover
South Dakota State (-19) to win and cover
North Dakota State (-30.5) to win and cover

[POD Knows]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[Bison56]

Northern Iowa
Indiana State
Western Illinois
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

[Bisonator]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[Paladin1aa]

UNI
Ill. St.
WIU
SDSU
NDSU

[CappinHard]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

There's no way all away teams win, is there? Has that ever happened in the MVFC? Kudos to whoever can pull out that stat. (changed a couple picks to home teams to try to catch up)

[mango433]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[Preferred Walk-On]

Bold (win outright); Underlined (beat spread):

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[JacksFan40]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[Professor Chaos]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State - YSU's defense has what it takes to make this a ballgame... unless the version of their defense that apparently showed up against ISUb makes another appearance.

Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State - I was tempted to pick the Trees in this one outright but I think the Redbirds rushing attack makes the difference.

Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota - I expect McGuire and McShane to have big days in this one.

South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois - SDSU's offense is firing again after their hiccup against UNI.

North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State - The Bears are in a tailspin and I think the Bison will let the hammer down after a lackluster effort last week.

[Evolution Prime]

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
South Dakota
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

[REALBird]

Northern Iowa (does not cover - 35 degrees, rain the day before! The refs want to keep the clock moving. Ground games all day)

Indiana State. (ISUr plays terrible in Terre Haute, we cant stop anyone and our OFF is one dimensional. Trees have shown they can put up points putting up 51 twice this year.)

WIU (covers - I’d be happy to play indoors this time of year)

SDSU (covers - yeah. Zero faith in SIU but who knows)

NDSU (doesn’t cover - because they decide to call off the dogs. The sooner it’s over, put in the subs and run the ball)

[DA BEAR]

Straight up
UNI
Illinois State
USD
SDSU
NDSU

[Noryan34]

Bold = straight Underline = spread

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[skinny_uncle]

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[mvfcfan]

Straight Up:

UNI
Indiana State
South Dakota
SDSU
Missouri State

[Professor Chaos]

Not exactly sure why but WIU has moved from a 3.5 point favorite to a pick 'em against South Dakota. I would've expected that line to move in the opposite direction given USD's recent trending and the fact that they're 2-7 against the spread this year. Seems like some pretty easy money could be put on WIU there.

[ST_Lawson]

Not exactly sure why but WIU has moved from a 3.5 point favorite to a pick 'em against South Dakota. I would've expected that line to move in the opposite direction given USD's recent trending and the fact that they're 2-7 against the spread this year. Seems like some pretty easy money could be put on WIU there.

Probably just a function of more USD fans out there and WIU being frequently (at least from my perspective) underestimated. They put us as 3.5 point favorites, so you get USD fans putting money on the "upset" which moves the odds back down to around "even". That is how that works, right? I'm not a gambling expert, but I think that's how that would work.

[Professor Chaos]

Probably just a function of more USD fans out there and WIU being frequently (at least from my perspective) underestimated. They put us as 3.5 point favorites, so you get USD fans putting money on the "upset" which moves the odds back down to around "even". That is how that works, right? I'm not a gambling expert, but I think that's how that would work.
Yeah, that's how the lines move. I doubt 5dimes does it for these "small potatoes" games but in Vegas they sometimes stop moving the line for a game or move it more slowly for a game where most of the money is coming in on one side because they think bettors are just wrong.

But in general if sports books had their way they'd have 50% of the money come in on each side for every game because with the rake they're guaranteed to win.

[FCSbuff319]

Youngstown State
Indiana State
South Dakota
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

[BisonTru]

Straight:

Northern Iowa @ Youngstown State
Illinois State @ Indiana State
Western Illinois @ South Dakota
South Dakota State @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State @ Missouri State

Spread:

Northern Iowa (-15) @ Youngstown State
Illinois State (-13) @ Indiana State
Western Illinois (-3.5) @ South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19) @ Southern Illinois
North Dakota State (-30.5) @ Missouri State

[SUPharmacist]

Straight up
UNI
ISUb
WIU
SDSU
NDSU

Spread
YSU
ISUb
WIU
SIU
MSU

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Straight up:

UNI
ISUb
WIU
SDSU
NDSU

[caribbeanhen]

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Western Illinois
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

[Schism55]

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Western Illinois
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

[UpstateBison]

Straight up
UNI
ISUb
WIU
SDSU
NDSU

Spread
UNI
ISUb
WIU
SDSU
NDSU

[Derby City Duke]

Straight Up:

Northern Iowa
Illinois State
South Dakota
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

Against the Spread:

Youngstown State (+15)
Indiana State (+13)
South Dakota
South Dakota State (-19)
North Dakota State (-30.5)

[TheKingpin28]

SDSU and SIU is a push for the spread due to the missed chip shot. Damn you SDSU!

[Professor Chaos]

SDSU and SIU is a push for the spread due to the missed chip shot. Damn you SDSU!
Yep, I hate ties and since everyone would get one I'll just treat that game like it didn't happen in the overall standings for the spread picks (I'll include it in the team records against the spread though).

[TheKingpin28]

Yep, I hate ties and since everyone would get one I'll just treat that game like it didn't happen in the overall standings (I'll include it in the team records against the spread though).

Wouldn't be the first time SDSU **** the bed when it counted. xlolx

In all seriousness though, it sucks since if it comes down to one game, we can look at this and wonder, what if.

[Professor Chaos]

So oddly enough this week the spread picks (38-26 - 59.4%) were more accurate than the straight up picks (84-70 - 54.5%). I guess that's what happens when 3 underdogs win. Someone mentioned it earlier in the thread but we really should've known when all 5 home teams were underdogs that there was going to be an upset or two. In any case, we did have one crazy picker (FCSbuff319 a.k.a. Randy Bobandy) who, despite the upsets, nailed the straight up picks this week to kudos to you sir. Like I mentioned earlier I basically didn't count the SDSU/SIU game in the spread picks since it was a push. We had 2 pickers go 4 for 4 in the spread picks (Derby City Duke and CappinHard). Derby City Duke, despite giving us all a break by not picking last week, is back into a tie for the lead in the spread picks. We've got a 4 way tie at the top heading into the final week of the regular season so eternal bragging rights are on the line next week (although I'll keep this going into the playoffs also).

Here's the full standings for the straight up picks:



R
Username
Right
Wrong
Right %
W1-8
W9
W10
W11


1
mango433
49
15
76.6%
40
2
5
2


2
Bisonator
48
16
75.0%
39
2
5
2


2
ST_Lawson
48
16
75.0%
38
3
5
2


4
BisonTru
47
17
73.4%
39
1
3
4


4
CappinHard
47
17
73.4%
36
3
4
4


4
Noryan34
47
17
73.4%
37
2
5
3


4
Preferred Walk-On
47
17
73.4%
37
2
5
3


4
Professor Chaos
47
17
73.4%
40
1
4
2


9
Bison Fan in NW MN
46
18
71.9%
37
1
5
3


9
Bison56
46
18
71.9%
37
2
4
3


9
DA BEAR
46
18
71.9%
37
2
4
3


9
Paladin1aa
46
18
71.9%
37
2
5
2


9
SUPharmacist
46
18
71.9%
36
3
4
3


14
Evolution Prime
45
19
70.3%
35
3
4
3


14
FCSbuff319
45
19
70.3%
36
1
3
5


14
footballer23
45
19
70.3%
38
1
4
2


14
Gil Dobie
45
19
70.3%
36
2
5
2


14
mvfcfan
45
19
70.3%
37
1
4
3


14
REALBird
45
19
70.3%
36
1
5
3


14
TheKingpin28
45
19
70.3%
35
3
5
2


21
bonarae
44
20
68.8%
37
2
3
2


21
caribbeanhen
44
20
68.8%
36
1
5
2


21
cx500d
44
20
68.8%
37
1
4
2


21
Derby City Duke
44
15
74.6%
40
1
0
3


21
POD Knows
44
20
68.8%
35
2
5
2


21
Sycamore62
44
20
68.8%
33
3
5
3


27
dustinthorn93
41
23
64.1%
32
1
4
4


27
Schism55
41
23
64.1%
34
1
4
2


29
skinny_uncle
39
24
61.9%
31
2
3
3


29
UpstateBison
39
22
63.9%
32
1
3
3


31
Redbird 4th & short
38
21
64.4%
33
1
4
0


32
The Yo Show
37
17
68.5%
36
1
0
0


33
JacksFan40
34
21
61.8%
26
2
4
2


34
dewey
30
14
68.2%
30
0
0
0


35
maninthehighcastle
25
14
64.1%
23
2
0
0


36
ysubigred
24
10
70.6%
24
0
0
0


37
JSUSoutherner
23
8
74.2%
23
0
0
0


38
Twentysix
22
8
73.3%
22
0
0
0




Here's the full standings in the spread picks:



R
Username
Right
Wrong
Right%
W1-8
W9
W10
W11


1
Derby City Duke
36
22
62.1%
31
1
0
4


1
mango433
36
27
57.1%
30
1
3
2


1
Professor Chaos
36
27
57.1%
28
2
3
3


1
REALBird
36
27
57.1%
28
2
4
2


5
Preferred Walk-On
35
28
55.6%
27
2
4
2


6
CappinHard
34
29
54.0%
25
3
2
4


6
TheKingpin28
34
29
54.0%
28
2
2
2


8
ST_Lawson
33
30
52.4%
28
3
1
1


8
Sycamore62
33
30
52.4%
27
2
2
2


10
Bisonator
32
31
50.8%
25
2
3
2


10
Noryan34
32
31
50.8%
23
3
3
3


12
POD Knows
30
33
47.6%
23
1
4
2


13
BisonTru
29
34
46.0%
23
1
2
3


14
Redbird 4th & short
28
31
47.5%
26
0
2
0


14
SUPharmacist
28
35
44.4%
22
3
1
2


16
footballer23
27
36
42.9%
22
1
2
2


17
The Yo Show
26
28
48.1%
24
2
0
0


18
UpstateBison
25
35
41.7%
19
2
2
2


19
dewey
19
25
43.2%
19
0
0
0


20
Drblankstare
17
12
58.6%
17
0
0
0


21
Twentysix
15
15
50.0%
15
0
0
0




I'll have the week 12 picks up Monday afternoon/early evening. Let me know if you see any mistakes.

[FCSbuff319]

Youngstown State
Indiana State
South Dakota
South Dakota State
North Dakota State

A little late, but still time to dust off my shoulders for this one! ;)