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JMU2K_DukeDawg
February 28th, 2007, 12:02 PM
Ok, piggybacking off of the list of games from the other thread, list you top 5 winnable games against the FBS matchups this coming year:

Here are my guesses in no particular order:

1. UC Davis at San Jose State
2. Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois
3. Maine at UConn
4. One of the North Dakota State games (not sure which one yet)
5. JMU at UNC - yes, a little homerism here, but you can't turn a program around by game #1 can you? (would be so great to take down Butch Davis in his inaugural game at Chapel Hill)

Below is a generally complete list of games:

Appalachian State at Michigan
UC Davis at San Jose State
Central Arkansas at Louisiana Tech
Delaware at Navy
Delaware State at Kent
Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky
Eastern Washinton at BYU
Eastern Washington at Hawaii
Elon at South Florida
Furman at Clemson
Gardner-Webb at Ohio
Georgia Southern at Colorado State
Grambling State at Pittsburgh
Idaho State at Oregon State
Illinois State at Missouri
Indiana State at Indiana
James Madison at North Carolina
Liberty at Toledo
Maine at Connecticut
UMass at Boston College
McNeese State at Louisiana-Lafayette
Missouri State at Kansas State
Montana State at Texas A&M
Murray State at Louisville
New Hampshire at Marshall
Norfolk State at Rutgers
North Dakota State at Minnesota
North Dakota State at Central Michigan
Northeastern at Northwestern
Northern Arizona at Arizona
Northern Iowa at Iowa State
Northwestern State at Mississippi
Portland State at San Diego State
Rhode Island at Army
Richmond at Vanderbilt
Sacramento State at Fresno State
Sacramento State at New Mexico
Sam Houston St at Oklahoma State
South Carolina State at Air Force
South Carolina State at South Carolina
Southeastern Louisiana at Kansas
Southeastern Louisiana at New Mexico State
Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane
Southeastern Missouri at Cincinnati
Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois
UT Chattanooga at Arkansas
UT Chattanooga at Memphis
Tennessee Martin at Southern Miss
Tennessee Tech at Auburn
Texas State at Baylor
The Citadel at Wisconsin
Villanova at Maryland
Weber State at Boise State
Western Carolina at Alabama
Western Carolina at Georgia
Western Illinois at Illinois
William and Mary at Virginia Tech
Wofford at North Carolina State
Youngstown State at Ohio State

YoUDeeMan
February 28th, 2007, 12:20 PM
Delaware at Navy is winnable.

1) We play Rhode Island earlier in the season so the option won't be completely foreign.

2) We have a bye week before the game - very important when prepping for Navy's option.

3) We have an offense that will be loaded so we can score on them.

4) We've won there before, so it is not "unthinkable" for the players or coaches.

* I'll feel more comfortable if we get the rumored LB this summer.

Edit: for the other four, I'll go with:

Wofford over NC State
UC Davis over San Jose St
NDSU over Central Michigan
UNH over Marshall

Tod
February 28th, 2007, 12:23 PM
So Hawaii is playing EWU and CSU? Wow.

AppGuy04
February 28th, 2007, 12:32 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan

Ronbo
February 28th, 2007, 12:36 PM
San Jose State gets dissed every year and has still NEVER been beaten by a lower division team.xlolx They beat #3 ranked EWU two years ago and #5 ranked Cal Poly last year. Says a little about the gap doesn't it?

spelunker64
February 28th, 2007, 12:48 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan


xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

PapaBear
February 28th, 2007, 12:49 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan

That would be freak ing awesome. Good luck, Apps!:nod:

As for Maine vs UConn ... there are WAAAYYY too many question marks in Orono to be predicting anything, this early. Maybe if we have a good Spring and open strong against Monmouth -- good, physical defense and explosive offense -- I'll feel confident heading into Storrs in Week #2. But as I sit here right now, I get schvitzy just thinking about that game.

UNHWILDCATS05
February 28th, 2007, 12:51 PM
I'm worried about this game. If the Cats could pull it out it would be three FBS W's in the last three attempts (Rutgers and Northwestern being the other two). Maybe a little too much to ask?? I dunno. Hopefully not.

OL FU
February 28th, 2007, 12:52 PM
UNH over Marshall

:hurray: I will be a Wildcat that day:nod:

CCU97
February 28th, 2007, 12:57 PM
New Hampshire at Marshall
North Dakota State at Central Michigan
Richmond at Vanderbilt
UC Davis at San Jose State
Liberty at Toledo

All of these are possible....not likely but possible....

slostang
February 28th, 2007, 12:58 PM
Cal Poly @ University of Idaho.

AppGuy04
February 28th, 2007, 01:03 PM
xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

In little kid from Angels in the Outfield voice: "It could happen":o

spelunker64
February 28th, 2007, 01:10 PM
In little kid from Angels in the Outfield voice: "It could happen":o

It could yes, and it's going to be 80 degrees here tomarrow as well. :smiley_wi

blukeys
February 28th, 2007, 01:29 PM
:hurray: I will be a Wildcat that day:nod:

Ol Fu always has 2 favorite teams. Furman and whoever is playing Marshall.

JoshUCA
February 28th, 2007, 01:38 PM
I think that UCA over Louisiana Tech isn't too far fetched, although we are going to miss A LOT of seniors we have some VERY talented guys coming back. With LA Tech bringing in a new coach, who knows how they will respond to his philosophy and such...so it is a possibility for a W for UCA

slycat
February 28th, 2007, 01:45 PM
Cal Poly @ University of Idaho.

i like that one.

i think texas st could beat baylor. last time we played them in 2004 we lost by a touchdown and without our starting qb. this year we have a great offense coming back and baylor just had a lot of their starters graduate.

Cobblestone
February 28th, 2007, 01:48 PM
I think we might have a shot at beating Army. For one thing Army will have a first time head coach and this will only be his second game. Because of weight control standards at military academies, the players tend not to be quite as big as their FBS brethren. These two factors could give us a shot at pulling off an upset.

OK, everybody laugh now but as Chris Berman says: "that's why they play the game."

DaveK
February 28th, 2007, 01:53 PM
Ok, piggybacking off of the list of games from the other thread, list you top 5 winnable games against the FBS matchups this coming year:

Here are my guesses in no particular order:

1. UC Davis at San Jose State
2. Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois
3. Maine at UConn
4. One of the North Dakota State games (not sure which one yet)
5. JMU at UNC - yes, a little homerism here, but you can't turn a program around by game #1 can you? (would be so great to take down Butch Davis in his inaugural game at Chapel Hill)

The one against Central Michigan, of course. They have a very good chance to win that one, but barring a major miracle they don't have a prayer of beating Minnesota. The best they can do is keep it close if the Gophers play as poorly as they did last year.

Ronbo
February 28th, 2007, 01:58 PM
Check the NDSU to play Central Michigan thread. CMU is loaded next year, they return almost all their talent from a 9-4 squad. It would ba a very good win for NDSU.

bcrawf
February 28th, 2007, 02:13 PM
Cal Poly over Idaho

UNI over Iowa State- We were a missed field goal away from doing it last year and Iowa State will be running new systems on both sides of the ball. I wish it was Week 1 instead of Week 2...

JMU2K_DukeDawg
February 28th, 2007, 02:36 PM
Check the NDSU to play Central Michigan thread. CMU is loaded next year, they return almost all their talent from a 9-4 squad. It would ba a very good win for NDSU.

Yep. Everybody hears Central Michigan and thinks "Who?" Their coach is seasoned guy who won a lot at the lower divisions and he is proving to be a winner in FCS as well. I honestly think Minnesota is more winnable.

I also was thinking that Delaware could win, but given their last two years, I'll believe it when i see it. No doubt about the offense. I just don't think the defense will yet be up to the task. I went to the Car something Bowl game in Charlotte against BC and they really should have won that game. If you can get a few bounces to fall your way like BC, anything's possible. In fact, pray for a nice hurricane-remnants kind of day - that should do the trick! :thumbsup:

URI - I agree as well. I got the Navy and Army teams mixed up in my head somehow in the other thread, thinking you'd both be sporting that crazy option offense. You guys should provide a great matchup that can help simulate what they'll face against Navy. Unfortunately, with their annual rivalry, they'll likely be more than ready for the option. Good luck! :smiley_wi

appfan2008
February 28th, 2007, 02:39 PM
app st. v. mich is winnable for app

Mr. C
February 28th, 2007, 02:58 PM
San Jose State gets dissed every year and has still NEVER been beaten by a lower division team.xlolx They beat #3 ranked EWU two years ago and #5 ranked Cal Poly last year. Says a little about the gap doesn't it?
San Jose State, as much as it pains me to say (as a Fresno State alum, there is NO team I hate more than San Jose State), is actually very much improved under Dick Toomey. Those despicable Spartans played in a bowl game last year.

I like the James Madison-North Carolina matchup, but don't like the fact that the Dukes will be breaking in a new QB. And with JMU's nickname, you know that UNC will be fired up.

BigApp
February 28th, 2007, 03:02 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan

I like the way you drink...I mean think! :thumbsup:

Mr. C
February 28th, 2007, 03:05 PM
Cal Poly @ University of Idaho.
Very good chance for the Mustangs to win. I also like New Hampshire against a sliding Marshall program.

Franks Tanks
February 28th, 2007, 03:08 PM
San Jose State has been much improved recently, but of course CAL-Davis can still beat them. The Rhody-Army game is very winnable for RHody, as anyone has a shot against ARMY, they stink. In 2002 a Holy Cross team that finished 2-7 and near teh bottom of the league beat Army in their opener.

Franks Tanks
February 28th, 2007, 03:08 PM
San Jose State has been much improved recently, but of course CAL-Davis can still beat them. The Rhody-Army game is very winnable for RHody, as anyone has a shot against ARMY, they stink. In 2002 a Holy Cross team that finished 2-7 and near teh bottom of the league beat Army in their opener.


That record was 4-7 ( I believe)

buckp
February 28th, 2007, 03:16 PM
Watch out for the McNeese vs USL....excuse me, I mean ULL (University of Louisiana at Lafayette). This is an old rivalry and with the Ragin' Cajuns coming off a 6-6 season and their head coach (R. Bustle) firing the offensive and defensive coordinators plus the wide receiver and cornerbacks coaches. McNeese is looking better all the time. :nod:

appfan2008
February 28th, 2007, 04:27 PM
I hate the tar heels so much i was pulling for the paladins against UNC last year and coming from an app fan i must really hate the tar heels... which means i really am going to be rooting for the dukes this year

and i really think they have a shot!

UNH_Alum_In_CT
February 28th, 2007, 04:29 PM
I'm worried about this game. If the Cats could pull it out it would be three FBS W's in the last three attempts (Rutgers and Northwestern being the other two). Maybe a little too much to ask?? I dunno. Hopefully not.

Every ounce of logic in my body says we can't possibly win three of these in a row, but thankfully my logic isn't out on the field playing. I didn't think we could win in Piscataway nor Evanston. So, what the heck do I know!! :p xlolx xlolx

And I better stop being pessimistic because that death calculator says I'll be pushing up daisies in less than a year if I'm pessimistic!! :rotateh: :rotateh:

HiHiYikas
February 28th, 2007, 04:38 PM
I'll be paying attention to...

App State v. Michigan - I'm actually thinking about heading up to Ann Arbor for this one. I hope the Mountaineers make a good game out of it.

Furman v. Clemson - with that much purple on the field, both teams ought to lose. But I gotta back the SoCon over the ACC.

UNH v. Marshall - Herd-hatred is a virtual must for SoCon fans. It's one of the few pieces of common ground shared by Mountaineers and Paladins.

JMU v. N. Carolina - I wouldn't mind seeing the Dukes take down the tar Heels.

JALMOND
February 28th, 2007, 04:44 PM
I like our chances against San Diego State. From what I've seen, they are not as good as New Mexico. I think Portland State could surprise the Aztecs.

Appstate29
February 28th, 2007, 04:46 PM
:homer: ASU vs. Michigan I don't care how much of a homer I am, we will be singing hail to the victors late into the night....

MplsBison
February 28th, 2007, 04:49 PM
San Jose is way better than in recent years with the new coach.

UNH_Alum_In_CT
February 28th, 2007, 04:57 PM
As for Maine vs UConn ... there are WAAAYYY too many question marks in Orono to be predicting anything, this early. Maybe if we have a good Spring and open strong against Monmouth -- good, physical defense and explosive offense -- I'll feel confident heading into Storrs in Week #2. But as I sit here right now, I get schvitzy just thinking about that game.

PapaBear, get those guys fired up! You wouldn't believe all the crap I had to listen to and read this past Fall after the Huskies blew out URI! The high and mighty, arrogant Husky media was just blabbering about how that game proved how much better they were than their A-10 days and how it justified their move to the Big East. :pumpuke:

How I wished the UConVicts had to play the Black Hole defense last year! And how I wished I could have ripped the media's blinders off so that they actually saw:


UMass losing by one in Annapolis to the Navy team that absolutely spanked UConn in East Hartford.
That Richmond went on the road to shut out the Duke team that IIRC lost by one to the Wake Forest team that also spanked the Huskies.
New Hampshire 34 Northwestern 14 in Evanston
That Maine didn't get blown out by the Chestnut Hill Beagles.


How I would have loved to have seen UConn play UMass, JMU, UNH, Delaware, Northeastern, Richmond or Maine last year. And I would have paid good money to watch the Minutemen take all their pent up frustration and hatred of the Huskies into the Rent!! Couldn't help but notice that Calhoun ducked you guys this year!! It would have been fun watching that defense blitzing the crap out of the Husky QBs!! :nod: :nod:

Tod
February 28th, 2007, 06:03 PM
Cal Poly @ University of Idaho.

I was just coming to this thread to see if anybody said that yet. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

NDSUFREAK
February 28th, 2007, 06:09 PM
The one against Central Michigan, of course. They have a very good chance to win that one, but barring a major miracle they don't have a prayer of beating Minnesota. The best they can do is keep it close if the Gophers play as poorly as they did last year.

That is was they (AND I :o :o :o : smh : : smh : :( :( ) said last year.

89Hen
February 28th, 2007, 06:09 PM
Not much love outside of the Hen camp for our game against Navy. Surprising given the fact that we're 6-6 against Navy in the last 22 years. :eyebrow:

NDSUFREAK
February 28th, 2007, 06:12 PM
app st. v. mich is winnable for app

YEAHH!!!!!..................no.:eyebrow: I would think that the 107,000 fans would be enough! It would have to take a very lot to beat a team that went to the rose bowl last year and have a lot of returning starters. :twocents:

citdog
February 28th, 2007, 06:19 PM
Not much love outside of the Hen camp for our game against Navy. Surprising given the fact that we're 6-6 against Navy in the last 22 years. :eyebrow:

It pisses alot of folks off that Navy plays Delaware rather than some of the other Military Schools. I guess beating them the last two times we played mwans we will never get another game with them.: smh :

Peems
February 28th, 2007, 07:10 PM
I too agree, Cal Poly v. Idaho. For God sake they almost lost to Idaho State last year. If cal poly is half as good as they were last year, they win.

Peems
February 28th, 2007, 07:11 PM
also you never know, maybe the bobcats will pull out another upset in college station(probably not though)

Mountaineer#96
February 28th, 2007, 09:23 PM
App fans lets not let our eyes get bigger than our stomachs.

This upcoming Michigan team is a lot better than the LSU team we played in 2005.

I will not say that we cannot win it, but it is a very looooooong shot. :)

if we do pull it out, wow I think that it would be on ESPN instant classic and likely have a hollywood producer or two calling up our front office.

No_Skill
February 28th, 2007, 10:06 PM
Although I think our best shot at beating Minnesota was this past season, it can be done this coming season.

I think we'll see an even better turn out of Bison Fans at the Humpty Dome this year.

jmufootball2
February 28th, 2007, 10:43 PM
App vs Michigan:

You will probably hang with them for the first half, then thats when things start crumblin'.

Madison vs UNC:

The tar heels are not going to be ready for landers' speed and quickness but as soon as they start stopping our running game we could be in trouble. This game is very interesting to me with Butch Davis' first game and the heels coming off that 'stellar' class. A win could really hault any momentum this program has gained this offseason.(If you can gain momentum in the offseason)

Pauly LB
February 28th, 2007, 10:54 PM
Cal Poly will beat Idaho on Sept 8th !!!

youwouldno
February 28th, 2007, 11:12 PM
Furman has a better shot at Clemson than App does at Michigan. Both are extremely unlikely propositions.

GeauxLions94
February 28th, 2007, 11:24 PM
Watch out for the McNeese vs USL....excuse me, I mean ULL (University of Louisiana at Lafayette). This is an old rivalry and with the Ragin' Cajuns coming off a 6-6 season and their head coach (R. Bustle) firing the offensive and defensive coordinators plus the wide receiver and cornerbacks coaches. McNeese is looking better all the time. :nod:

I like McNeese State over ULL and a possible one is Southeastern Louisiana over Tulane xcoffeex

TheValleyRaider
February 28th, 2007, 11:25 PM
Real Winnable Ones
Delaware at Navy
McNeese State at Louisiana-Lafayette
North Dakota State at Central Michigan
Northern Iowa at Iowa State
Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois (should've happened in '04)
Texas State at Baylor

They'll Make 'Em Sweat
Central Arkansas at Louisiana Tech
Furman at Clemson
James Madison at North Carolina
Maine at Connecticut
UMass at Boston College
New Hampshire at Marshall
Northeastern at Northwestern
Northern Arizona at Arizona
The Citadel at Wisconsin
Villanova at Maryland

Greatest FCS Wins Ever (If they could actually, you know, happen)Appalachian State at Michigan
Tennessee Tech at Auburn
Western Carolina at Alabama
Western Carolina at Georgia
Youngstown State at Ohio State

Lionsrking
February 28th, 2007, 11:38 PM
I like McNeese State over ULL and a possible one is Southeastern Louisiana over Tulane xcoffeex

Not saying we should be favored but I think we have more than a reasonable chance to beat Tulane in the Dome. We almost beat them two years ago and they won't be as talented as they were in '05. I also think we'll give New Mexico State a good game for a second year in a row.

Lionsrking
February 28th, 2007, 11:40 PM
Real Winnable Ones
Delaware at Navy
McNeese State at Louisiana-Lafayette
North Dakota State at Central Michigan
Northern Iowa at Iowa State
Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois (should've happened in '04)
Texas State at Baylor

They'll Make 'Em Sweat
Central Arkansas at Louisiana Tech
Furman at Clemson
James Madison at North Carolina
Maine at Connecticut
UMass at Boston College
New Hampshire at Marshall
Northeastern at Northwestern
Northern Arizona at Arizona
The Citadel at Wisconsin
Villanova at Maryland

Greatest FCS Wins Ever (If they could actually, you know, happen)Appalachian State at Michigan
Tennessee Tech at Auburn
Western Carolina at Alabama
Western Carolina at Georgia
Youngstown State at Ohio State

I would put Southeastern Louisiana at Tulane in your list of "real winnables." Moreso than Texas State at Baylor.

ASU Kep
February 28th, 2007, 11:49 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan

:hurray: :hurray: :hurray: :nod: :nod: :nod:

GoAgs72
March 1st, 2007, 12:06 AM
I think Cal Poly over Idaho might be easier than UC Davis over San Jose State. San Jose State was vastly improved in 2006 and UC Davis will start a new QB. However, due to the proximity to Davis and the abundant UC Davis alumni in the Bay Area, it might almost count as a home game much like Stanford in 2005.

Go Poly
March 1st, 2007, 12:19 AM
Cal Poly will beat Idaho on Sept 8th !!!


We can only hope! If Poly shows up with a stout defense and improved offense it can happen!

DaveK
March 1st, 2007, 02:05 AM
PapaBear, get those guys fired up! You wouldn't believe all the crap I had to listen to and read this past Fall after the Huskies blew out URI! The high and mighty, arrogant Husky media was just blabbering about how that game proved how much better they were than their A-10 days and how it justified their move to the Big East. :pumpuke:

How I wished the UConVicts had to play the Black Hole defense last year! And how I wished I could have ripped the media's blinders off so that they actually saw:


UMass losing by one in Annapolis to the Navy team that absolutely spanked UConn in East Hartford.
That Richmond went on the road to shut out the Duke team that IIRC lost by one to the Wake Forest team that also spanked the Huskies.
New Hampshire 34 Northwestern 14 in Evanston
That Maine didn't get blown out by the Chestnut Hill Beagles.


How I would have loved to have seen UConn play UMass, JMU, UNH, Delaware, Northeastern, Richmond or Maine last year. And I would have paid good money to watch the Minutemen take all their pent up frustration and hatred of the Huskies into the Rent!! Couldn't help but notice that Calhoun ducked you guys this year!! It would have been fun watching that defense blitzing the crap out of the Husky QBs!! :nod: :nod:

I'll be cheering for Maine. I like those D1-AA schools that have D1 hockey. Go Black Bears!!!

*****
March 1st, 2007, 02:32 AM
I'll be cheering for Maine. I like those D1-AA schools that have D1 hockey. Go Black Bears!!!Do you like schools that play in the FCS and hockey?

Go Lehigh TU owl
March 1st, 2007, 03:16 AM
I love how everyone thinks FCS schools have a good chance to beat some of the big boys every year before the season starts but as tradition shows almost none will win.

*****
March 1st, 2007, 03:24 AM
I love how everyone thinks FCS schools have a good chance to beat some of the big boys every year before the season starts but as tradition shows almost none will win.But some always do beat "the big boys" (you should probably limit that term to the top 25 FBS where FCS has been blanked).

Umass74
March 1st, 2007, 08:20 AM
PapaBear, get those guys fired up! You wouldn't believe all the crap I had to listen to and read this past Fall after the Huskies blew out URI! The high and mighty, arrogant Husky media was just blabbering about how that game proved how much better they were than their A-10 days and how it justified their move to the Big East.

How I wished the UConVicts had to play the Black Hole defense last year! And how I wished I could have ripped the media's blinders off so that they actually saw:

* UMass losing by one in Annapolis to the Navy team that absolutely spanked UConn in East Hartford.
* That Richmond went on the road to shut out the Duke team that IIRC lost by one to the Wake Forest team that also spanked the Huskies.
* New Hampshire 34 Northwestern 14 in Evanston
* That Maine didn't get blown out by the Chestnut Hill Beagles.


How I would have loved to have seen UConn play UMass, JMU, UNH, Delaware, Northeastern, Richmond or Maine last year. And I would have paid good money to watch the Minutemen take all their pent up frustration and hatred of the Huskies into the Rent!! Couldn't help but notice that Calhoun ducked you guys this year!! It would have been fun watching that defense blitzing the crap out of the Husky QBs!!

Funny how UConn could not find a slot to play us in BB when we were winning six A10 BB Championships in a row. After we went down hill, suddenly UConn found a game for us. Now after one year of Travis Ford (and us going 21-8 in 2006-2007 so far), Calhoun stated "UMass is not a rivalry", and we are off their schedule again.:rolleyes:

And check out UConn's football recruiting practices (PapaBear, get those guys fired up! You wouldn't believe all the crap I had to listen to and read this past Fall after the Huskies blew out URI! The high and mighty, arrogant Husky media was just blabbering about how that game proved how much better they were than their A-10 days and how it justified their move to the Big East.) !

GGASU
March 1st, 2007, 08:33 AM
App fans lets not let our eyes get bigger than our stomachs.

This upcoming Michigan team is a lot better than the LSU team we played in 2005.



Not sure I agree with that...Big Ten is always over rated where the SEC is usually under rated.
That is the main reason the Big Ten wants to keep the BCS formula.. if they went to a playoff they would never sniff the national championship.

If the ASU players can get past the name and helmets they have a chance in this game.

PaladinFan
March 1st, 2007, 09:42 AM
Come on now, be reasonable. You did "hang around" with LSU, but the Apps still didn't find the endzone. If ASU manages two touchdowns I'll be shocked.

One game I'm not totally sold won't be good is Furman and Clemson. Furman played them tough there in 2003 (with our worst team since 2000). The Tigers return Spiller and Davis (I think) but really no one else. It's also a big game for the Paladins as many of them played against the CU players in high school and have many connections there.

You also can't ever overlook Furman when they play the FBS. They are usually in the game until the final whistle. Winning over the country boys down the street would be nice.

JDC325
March 1st, 2007, 10:54 AM
app st. v. mich is winnable for app


xlolx

AggiePride
March 1st, 2007, 01:19 PM
I really hope some of you guys are right and UCD takes it to SJSU.

I think NDSU will pull one off, and I will be excited to see ASU take on Michigan.

CSUBUCDAD
March 1st, 2007, 02:40 PM
So Hawaii is playing EWU and CSU? Wow.
That is the buzz although the Hawaii sched is still not out officially.

DaveK
March 1st, 2007, 02:54 PM
Not sure I agree with that...Big Ten is always over rated where the SEC is usually under rated.
That is the main reason the Big Ten wants to keep the BCS formula.. if they went to a playoff they would never sniff the national championship.

If the ASU players can get past the name and helmets they have a chance in this game.

I see it the other way around, Big 10 underrated and SEC overrated. If they ever went to a playoff in D1 football I think the Big 10 would win at least two national championships for every one by the SEC. The SEC is a good conference, but not quite as good as people make it out to be IMHO.

DaveK
March 1st, 2007, 02:55 PM
Do you like schools that play in the FCS and hockey?

Don't you have me on "ignore"? :eyebrow:

GGASU
March 1st, 2007, 06:22 PM
I see it the other way around, Big 10 underrated and SEC overrated. If they ever went to a playoff in D1 football I think the Big 10 would win at least two national championships for every one by the SEC. The SEC is a good conference, but not quite as good as people make it out to be IMHO.

So I guess you weren't watching when Florida made Ohio State look like a high school team.

None of the Big Ten teams last year would have finished better than .500 in the SEC

Appstate29
March 1st, 2007, 06:35 PM
So I guess you weren't watching when Florida made Ohio State look like a high school team.

None of the Big Ten teams last year would have finished better than .500 in the SEC

I agree the SEC is far and away the best football conference. The big 10 has some great teams, I just think that if they went to a FBS went to a playoff it would be dominated by SEC teams.

crunifan
March 1st, 2007, 06:41 PM
Why does everyone always assume that one game is always a perfect representation of a team. For instance, the FBS National Championship, why does everyone always just assume that Florida was that good all season. And same with Ohio State. Maybe Ohio State played poorly. Maybe Florida had the best game of its season. Either way, if those two teams met again something completely different would happen.

My point is, saying the SEC is so much better than the Big 10 based on the fact that Florida beat Ohio State once is ridiculous. It's the same as saying New Hampshire could compete in the Big 10, because they beat Northwestern once.

JohnStOnge
March 1st, 2007, 07:00 PM
San Jose State gets dissed every year and has still NEVER been beaten by a lower division team.xlolx They beat #3 ranked EWU two years ago and #5 ranked Cal Poly last year. Says a little about the gap doesn't it?

You must be talking about where those teams were ranked when San Jose State beat them. But it's pretty clear that Cal Poly wasn't really a top 5 I-AA/FCS last year and EWU wasn't a top 3 I-AA two years ago. Last year, Cal Poly finished 1 game over 0.500 against other I-AAs (5 - 3). EWU finished 6 - 4 against other I-AAs in 2005. Again, one game over 0.500.

Yes, they were both very solid I-AA/FCS teams. But if they were ranked 5 and 3 when they played San Jose State they were overrated.

JohnStOnge
March 1st, 2007, 07:18 PM
I agree the SEC is far and away the best football conference. The big 10 has some great teams, I just think that if they went to a FBS went to a playoff it would be dominated by SEC teams.

The Big 10 and SEC are tied up in bowl games against each other since the BCS started in 1997. In 1999, the two teams that played in the SEC championship game both lost to Big 10 schools in bowl games.

I think sometimes an exaggerated impression is created by a big blowout in one game such as Ohio State/Florida this past season. The SEC has had that sort of thing happen to its champions in "national championship" matchups too (see Nebraska/Florida 1996 as well as Nebraska/Alabama way back in 1972).

Ohio State had a very bad game. But the other day, just for kicks, I looked up the numbers of players drafted from some schools. Ohio State had 39 players taken by the NFL in the past five drafts. Florida had 27. Another talent rich SEC school, LSU, had 25. Ohio State set a record for players taken in a 7 round draft, at 14, in 2004. The Buckeyes where in the BCS championship game this past season in spite of losing 9 players who were drafted in Spring, 2006...including 5 taken in the first round.

For the five year period, Ohio State has had 8 players drafted in the first round. Florida had 2 and LSU three. So the Buckeys had more drafted in the first round during that time frame than two of the top talent producers in the SEC combined.

Anybody that thinks Ohio State does not, year in and year out, have the talent and speed to match up with the best SEC schools is kidding themselves. You don't have 39 players drafted over five years without having talent. You don't have that happen if you've got slow teams. Like, I've heard this stuff about the Florida defensive ends being fast, and they were. But in 2004 both of Ohio State's 2003 defensive ends were drafted...one in the first round and one in the third. That wouldn't have happened if they weren't fast. One of their defensive tackles was also drafted that year.

Ohio State played Florida after the Buckeyes hadn't had a game for nearly two months and the Gators had almost as long a layoff. Playoffs wouldn't be like that. Continuity wouldn't be lost.

Finally, if there were playoffs, all the Big games wouldn't be played in climates favorable to southern teams. Teams like Florida and LSU would sometimes have to go play teams like Michigan and Ohio State on the road in December and/or January. It'd be a totally different situation.

I think playoffs will eventually come to the top subdivision. And when they do, I think people who think the SEC is head and shoulders above leagues like the Big 10 and Big 12 are going to be in for a serious reality check. I'm not saying the SEC won't hold its own; but it's not going to dominate.

BrevardMountaineer03
March 1st, 2007, 07:27 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan
Ditto:thumbsup:

BrevardMountaineer03
March 1st, 2007, 07:28 PM
5. JMU at UNC - yes, a little homerism here, but you can't turn a program around by game #1 can you? (would be so great to take down Butch Davis in his inaugural game at Chapel Hill)



I think this is a winnable game for JMU as well. I don't think it's homerism if you truly think it can happen. (The Butch factor will be the biggest.)

JohnStOnge
March 1st, 2007, 07:36 PM
Why does everyone always assume that one game is always a perfect representation of a team. For instance, the FBS National Championship, why does everyone always just assume that Florida was that good all season. And same with Ohio State. Maybe Ohio State played poorly. Maybe Florida had the best game of its season. Either way, if those two teams met again something completely different would happen.

My point is, saying the SEC is so much better than the Big 10 based on the fact that Florida beat Ohio State once is ridiculous. It's the same as saying New Hampshire could compete in the Big 10, because they beat Northwestern once.

I agree completely. Florida deserves the championship but any football team has variation in performance. Florida was lucky to be in that game. The Gators had to block two field goals against South Carolina to do it. For its part, Ohio State struggled with 2 - 10 Illinois.

I'm painfully aware of the fact that each game is different. I remember the two games between Western Kentucky and McNeese in 2002 very well. Same kind of thing happened between Montana and Sam Houston State in a subsequent year. I'm sure there are plenty of other examples.

Problem is, in football, you only get one shot in a playoff type game. It's not like NBA basketball where you can get blown out in game 1 and still win the series.

GlennGoBlue
March 1st, 2007, 07:37 PM
xlolx


That's great. I basically got a week off for saying the same thing, but with words and not smileys. Should I assume that JDC325 got a strike for this?

GlennGoBlue
March 1st, 2007, 07:39 PM
JDC's laughing smiley was in response to this:

Originally Posted by appfan2008
app st. v. mich is winnable for app

Tod
March 1st, 2007, 07:40 PM
The Big 10 and SEC are tied up in bowl games against each other since the BCS started in 1997. In 1999, the two teams that played in the SEC championship game both lost to Big 10 schools in bowl games.

I think sometimes an exaggerated impression is created by a big blowout in one game such as Ohio State/Florida this past season. The SEC has had that sort of thing happen to its champions in "national championship" matchups too (see Nebraska/Florida 1996 as well as Nebraska/Alabama way back in 1972).

Ohio State had a very bad game. But the other day, just for kicks, I looked up the numbers of players drafted from some schools. Ohio State had 39 players taken by the NFL in the past five drafts. Florida had 27. Another talent rich SEC school, LSU, had 25. Ohio State set a record for players taken in a 7 round draft, at 14, in 2004. The Buckeyes where in the BCS championship game this past season in spite of losing 9 players who were drafted in Spring, 2006...including 5 taken in the first round.

For the five year period, Ohio State has had 8 players drafted in the first round. Florida had 2 and LSU three. So the Buckeys had more drafted in the first round during that time frame than two of the top talent producers in the SEC combined.

Anybody that thinks Ohio State does not, year in and year out, have the talent and speed to match up with the best SEC schools is kidding themselves. You don't have 39 players drafted over five years without having talent. You don't have that happen if you've got slow teams. Like, I've heard this stuff about the Florida defensive ends being fast, and they were. But in 2004 both of Ohio State's 2003 defensive ends were drafted...one in the first round and one in the third. That wouldn't have happened if they weren't fast. One of their defensive tackles was also drafted that year.

Ohio State played Florida after the Buckeyes hadn't had a game for nearly two months and the Gators had almost as long a layoff. Playoffs wouldn't be like that. Continuity wouldn't be lost.

Finally, if there were playoffs, all the Big games wouldn't be played in climates favorable to southern teams. Teams like Florida and LSU would sometimes have to go play teams like Michigan and Ohio State on the road in December and/or January. It'd be a totally different situation.

I think playoffs will eventually come to the top subdivision. And when they do, I think people who think the SEC is head and shoulders above leagues like the Big 10 and Big 12 are going to be in for a serious reality check. I'm not saying the SEC won't hold its own; but it's not going to dominate.

Good stuff, John. I agree. I'd like to see the PAC-10 get back to that level as well (other than USC, of course).

JohnStOnge
March 1st, 2007, 07:47 PM
So I guess you weren't watching when Florida made Ohio State look like a high school team.

None of the Big Ten teams last year would have finished better than .500 in the SEC

The Big 10 won two of the three bowl games between the two leagues this past season.

Look, I like the SEC. But the SEC has not dominated the Big 10 in head to head competition. It dominated one game. It has not dominated the series in recent years.

Yes, it's champion dominated the Big 10 champ. But it's #2 team was beaten by the Big 10's #3. Not dominated, but beaten nevertheless.

GlennGoBlue
March 1st, 2007, 07:52 PM
The Big 10 won two of the three bowl games between the two leagues this past season.

Look, I like the SEC. But the SEC has not dominated the Big 10 in head to head competition. It dominated one game. It has not dominated the series in recent years.

Yes, it's champion dominated the Big 10 champ. But it's #2 team was beaten by the Big 10's #3. Not dominated, but beaten nevertheless.



THANK YOU.

JohnStOnge
March 1st, 2007, 08:00 PM
I haven't read all the posts but I don't think I'm being a homer when I say I think McNeese at Louisiana Lafayette might be the most probable FCS win next season. I don't want to get too excited but I think that if everybody stays healthy and eligible...and if all of the newcomers pan out... the Cowboys have a chance to be back to the general level they were usually at during 1991 - 2003. ULL is consistently one of the worst teams in I-A/FBS. The Cajuns lost their starting QB and the guy that's been backing him up, frankly, has been a horrible passer (runs well). They lost some other key people too. 2006 was supposed to be "their" year...they were picked to win the Sun Belt...but they finshed 5-7 and tied for 5th place at 3-4 in the worst I-A league.

Bottom line is I think there's a good chance McNeese will be notably better next year while ULL...which is always really bad as I-A/FCS teams go to begin with...will be weaker. And it's not a long road trip. About 60 miles down the road.

YoUDeeMan
March 1st, 2007, 08:55 PM
But the other day, just for kicks, I looked up the numbers of players drafted from some schools. Ohio State had 39 players taken by the NFL in the past five drafts. Florida had 27. Another talent rich SEC school, LSU, had 25. Ohio State set a record for players taken in a 7 round draft, at 14, in 2004.

JSO, I agree with a lot of your post (too long to quote it entirely), but having a large number of players being drafted doesn't equate to having a championship caliber team. See Hampton (no knock - I am happy that they have individuals who are successful at the next level). Having talented individuals doesn't mean they play well as a team and it certainly doesn't automatically result in a coach creating a game plan to bring out the best in those players.

As far as the thread goes, I have posted my guesses of the possible upsets, but I really hope that all of the FCS teams do well and have a chance to win! :hurray:

GlennGoBlue
March 1st, 2007, 09:12 PM
I haven't read all the posts but I don't think I'm being a homer when I say I think McNeese at Louisiana Lafayette might be the most probable FCS win next season. I don't want to get too excited but I think that if everybody stays healthy and eligible...and if all of the newcomers pan out... the Cowboys have a chance to be back to the general level they were usually at during 1991 - 2003. ULL is consistently one of the worst teams in I-A/FBS. The Cajuns lost their starting QB and the guy that's been backing him up, frankly, has been a horrible passer (runs well). They lost some other key people too. 2006 was supposed to be "their" year...they were picked to win the Sun Belt...but they finshed 5-7 and tied for 5th place at 3-4 in the worst I-A league.

Bottom line is I think there's a good chance McNeese will be notably better next year while ULL...which is always really bad as I-A/FCS teams go to begin with...will be weaker. And it's not a long road trip. About 60 miles down the road.


Super.

ucdtim17
March 1st, 2007, 09:17 PM
Good stuff, John. I agree. I'd like to see the PAC-10 get back to that level as well (other than USC, of course).


Pac-10's already in the top half of BCS conferences and improving. Good article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=maisel_ivan&id=2767809

CopperCat
March 1st, 2007, 11:42 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan

:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

DaveK
March 2nd, 2007, 02:48 AM
The Big 10 and SEC are tied up in bowl games against each other since the BCS started in 1997. In 1999, the two teams that played in the SEC championship game both lost to Big 10 schools in bowl games.

I think sometimes an exaggerated impression is created by a big blowout in one game such as Ohio State/Florida this past season. The SEC has had that sort of thing happen to its champions in "national championship" matchups too (see Nebraska/Florida 1996 as well as Nebraska/Alabama way back in 1972).

Ohio State had a very bad game. But the other day, just for kicks, I looked up the numbers of players drafted from some schools. Ohio State had 39 players taken by the NFL in the past five drafts. Florida had 27. Another talent rich SEC school, LSU, had 25. Ohio State set a record for players taken in a 7 round draft, at 14, in 2004. The Buckeyes where in the BCS championship game this past season in spite of losing 9 players who were drafted in Spring, 2006...including 5 taken in the first round.

For the five year period, Ohio State has had 8 players drafted in the first round. Florida had 2 and LSU three. So the Buckeys had more drafted in the first round during that time frame than two of the top talent producers in the SEC combined.

Anybody that thinks Ohio State does not, year in and year out, have the talent and speed to match up with the best SEC schools is kidding themselves. You don't have 39 players drafted over five years without having talent. You don't have that happen if you've got slow teams. Like, I've heard this stuff about the Florida defensive ends being fast, and they were. But in 2004 both of Ohio State's 2003 defensive ends were drafted...one in the first round and one in the third. That wouldn't have happened if they weren't fast. One of their defensive tackles was also drafted that year.

Ohio State played Florida after the Buckeyes hadn't had a game for nearly two months and the Gators had almost as long a layoff. Playoffs wouldn't be like that. Continuity wouldn't be lost.

Finally, if there were playoffs, all the Big games wouldn't be played in climates favorable to southern teams. Teams like Florida and LSU would sometimes have to go play teams like Michigan and Ohio State on the road in December and/or January. It'd be a totally different situation.

I think playoffs will eventually come to the top subdivision. And when they do, I think people who think the SEC is head and shoulders above leagues like the Big 10 and Big 12 are going to be in for a serious reality check. I'm not saying the SEC won't hold its own; but it's not going to dominate.


Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, a voice of reason. :thumbsup:

trusty
March 2nd, 2007, 12:52 PM
I think we might have a shot at beating Army. For one thing Army will have a first time head coach and this will only be his second game. Because of weight control standards at military academies, the players tend not to be quite as big as their FBS brethren. These two factors could give us a shot at pulling off an upset.

OK, everybody laugh now but as Chris Berman says: "that's why they play the game."

Army is also changing their O from the Option to a spread like O. You might have a shot! Good luck.

trusty
March 2nd, 2007, 01:10 PM
[QUOTE=JMU2K_DukeDawg]Ok, piggybacking off of the list of games from the other thread, list you top 5 winnable games against the FBS matchups this coming year:

Here are my guesses in no particular order:

1. UC Davis at San Jose State
2. Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois
3. Maine at UConn
4. One of the North Dakota State and Central Michigan
5. JMU at UNC - yes, a little homerism here, but you can't turn a program around by game #1 can you? (would be so great to take down Butch Davis in his inaugural game at Chapel Hill)

I think NDSU has the best shot. I hope GSU plays Colorado State strong. I think we have a shot at winning this one.

igo4uni
March 2nd, 2007, 08:43 PM
UNI will beat Iowa State.

Eyes of Old Main
March 2nd, 2007, 09:49 PM
Wofford over NC State


Thanks for the vote of confidence, but that will be a tall order. Wofford would have had a better shot against NC State if Amato was still there.

We'll see how it goes, but last years "near win" against South Carolina might mean this is Wofford's year, but its a definite longshot. Much longer than some of the other FCS/FBS games on tap.

AZBison
March 2nd, 2007, 09:58 PM
yay Pac 10...

Maybe my Sun Devils will finally play to the level they are capable of. Every year is so disappointing because we always have good talent that never plays as well as a team as their talent suggests. For years now we have been seen as one of the top teams in the Pac 10, I don't think that's true anymore and we have to have a good season to make sure we can still attract recruits.

Oh, and I think NDSU has a good chance of winning either game. But I'll put my money on UC Davis pulling off the upset.

DaveK
March 2nd, 2007, 10:51 PM
UNI will beat Iowa State.

I think they have a shot at winning that one. Didn't they lose that game by only one point last year?

JohnStOnge
March 3rd, 2007, 09:25 AM
Pac-10's already in the top half of BCS conferences and improving. Good article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/story?columnist=maisel_ivan&id=2767809

I think the traditional BCS conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC) are all very close and the Big East is looking better than expected since changing teams. I didn't mention the Pac 10 when using examples of SEC fans being in for a rude awakening if they think the SEC is going to be dominant in a real playoff system but the perception of the Pac 10 as identifiably weaker than the SEC year in and year out is, I think, another perception that just isn't supported by what's happened on the field.

Since the BCS started in 1997, the Pac 10 is 8-7 against the SEC. Sure, USC is 4 and 0. But UCLA is 2 - 1 with two wins by 3 and 11 over Alabama along with a 6 point loss to Tennessee. The games the SEC has won have generally been games you'd expect them to win. Two very good LSU teams beat a bad Arizona team in 2003 as well as a mediocre one in 2006. Another very good LSU team won a barnburner over Arizona State. Finally, yet another very good LSU team was very fortunate to get a home win over a medicore Oregon State team because Oregon State's kicker couldn't hit extra points. Cal lost at Tennessee and Washington State lost at Auburn. Meanwhile, USC has done things like go on the road and blast an Arkansas team that was pointing to the game all off season and went on to play in the SEC championship game. Oregon is 2 - 0 against SEC over the period after benefitting from playing two bad Mississippi State teams.

But the results do not even remotely suggest some kind of definite SEC superiority over the Pac 10. As far as power ratings...1998 - 2006 the SEC was rated higher than the Pac 10 five times and the Pac 10 was rated higher than the SEC four times according to Sagarin's system. As close as you can get with an odd number.

Like I said, I'm an SEC fan in that it's my favorite FBS league and I live in the Baton Rouge area. But I've followed this for years and during the entire time that I've been paying attention the idea of the SEC as being clearly, year in and year out, the toughest league just hasn't been supported by actual results when all of the results are considered. SEC fans have a habit of focusing on the high points...like Florida's domination of Ohio State this year...but remain blind to the low points...like the SEC runner up being pistol whipped on its home field during the same season or, as mentioned, both SEC championship game participants being beaten by Big 10 schools in Bowl games following the 1999 season or the most dominant SEC champ I can recall in my lifetime being humiliated even worse than Ohio State just was by Nebraska after the 1995 season (that Gator team outscored its SEC opponents by 396 to 136, never beat an SEC opponent by fewer than 11 points, and won the SEC championship game by 34 - 3) .

Never mind. By the start of the 1996 season fans on radio talk shows around here were talking about the SEC being the toughest conference.

JohnStOnge
March 3rd, 2007, 10:11 AM
Just gotta talk about one thing I used to hear all the time. It had to do with Nebraska during the Cornhusker heyday. Every time an SEC team was going to play Nebraska in a bowl game, I'd hear the same thing around here.

Now, bear in mind that we're talking about a time during which Tom Osborne had only lost one game to an SEC team (he finished 10-1-1 against the SEC with the one loss being to an 11-1 Bama team). And just before he took over DeVaney's Nebraska squad had pummeled Alabama 38 -6 in a "national championship" matchup between undefeated teams.

So the 1996 Nebraska/Florida "national championship" game is coming up. The Big 8 wasn't as good as the SEC. Nebraska hadn't see SEC type speed on defense. Nebraska wasn't going to be able to score with the high octane Florida offense.

Never mind that Nebraska actually averaged more points per game on offense than Florida had to that point. Never mind that the Big 8 had done fine historically in head to head games...in fact I think it finished with the edge over the SEC though I'd have to check on that. Never mind that, at that point, Osborne's record against the SEC was at 8-1-1.

So Nebraska squashes Florida like so many bugs in that game.

Two years later, Nebraska's preparing to play Tennessee in another Bowl game. Now Osborne's 9-1-1 against the SEC. The Gator squashing was only two years past. But...SAME STUFF. Nebraska hasn't seen a defense with Tennessee's speed. Tennesee's got a great run defense. Blah, blah, blah.

Nebraska 42, Tennessee 17.

ucdtim17
March 3rd, 2007, 12:56 PM
Can't wait for Cal-Tenn in Berkeley Sept. 1.

PaladinFan
March 4th, 2007, 11:00 AM
Friends,

It is not that the Big 10 teams can't beat the SEC schools. They can. Yes, Wisconsin can beat Arkansas. The difference comes if you played Vanderbilt and Illinois, Ole Miss and Indiana, Alabama and Purdue.

The cream of the crop is the cream of the crop. The SEC however is so much deeper than every other conference out there. Yeah, Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin can play with just about anyone. However, it is when you get into the #7,8,9 teams that the difference is made.

We saw Florida hammer OSU and Wisconsin edge Arkansas (who isn't the league's #2, btw). Every other game is speculation.

If you did manage to play #1 v. #1 (already done), 2 v. 2, 3 v. 3 etc, I think the SEC would win 8 of the 11 (considering you throw out Mississippi State as the SEC has one more team).

It was commented that Florida, at one point, played 5 ranked teams in a row. You don't get that in any other conference. You just don't.

JohnStOnge
March 4th, 2007, 03:51 PM
I know we're not really talking FCS anymore but I thought it'd be fair to mention a breakdown I did that'd be consistent with the idea that the SEC would do well in playoffs. Some of it was kind of surprising to me. I just looked at how each conference has done so far in BCS bowl games. I figure BCS bowl games...which usually take the top teams from BCS conferences...might give us some idea of how leagues might do in playoffs.

Here's how it came out:

SEC: 9 - 4
Pac 10 7 - 4
Big 10 8 - 6
Big East 5 - 4
Big 12 5 - 7
ACC 1 - 8

If I counted right, that is. The site I looked at is http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/results .

I think the Big East having a better winning percentage than the Big 12 was the biggest surprise for me. Also, I knew the ACC might not be the top league but I'd have thought it would've done better than 1 - 8.

Another thing: For some reason I've been thinking the BCS started in 1997...but it's 1998. That means that instead of being tied with the SEC in bowl games since the start of the BCS, the Big 10 has a 13 - 11 lead in the head to head bowl matchups. However, the SEC has a 2 - 1 edge in BCS Bowl matchups.

Another thing looking at bowls does is indicate that the Kentucky/Indiana series has been one between what has been the worst program in the Big 10 against a program that has not been the worst in the SEC (probably 2nd worst). Indiana hasn't been to a Bowl game since 1993, while no other Big 10 school has been to fewer than 2 during the BCS period. Kentucky went to three bowls 1998 - 2006 and had an overall record of 41- 64. Vanderbilt hasn't been to a bowl game since 1982 and had a 27 - 75 record during the period. So if you wanted to match weakest program vs. weakest program for the two leagues you'd have to be pitting Indiana against Vanderbilt rather than against Kentucky.

JohnStOnge
March 4th, 2007, 04:06 PM
If you did manage to play #1 v. #1 (already done), 2 v. 2, 3 v. 3 etc, I think the SEC would win 8 of the 11 (considering you throw out Mississippi State as the SEC has one more team).

What I do to handle imaginary series like that so as to handle unequal conference sizes is to look at a theoretical series where every team in one conference plays one game against every team in the other conference.

For 2006, using Sagarin ratings, the theoretical predicted record for the SEC vs. the Big 10 in such a series if all games were played on neutral fields would be 85 - 47. However, if you went back just one year to 2005...a year in which the SEC had a bad season in terms of non conference games...the predicted record for the SEC against the Big 10 in such a series would have been 46 - 86.

As an aside, if you did 1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2, and so on through 11 vs. 11 for the two leagues, Sagarin would've predicted the SEC going 10 - 1 vs. the Big 10 this past season and the Big 10 going 10 -1 vs. the SEC the previous season.

Anyway, you can't really do that. It's not "valid" to leave out the weakest team in the SEC because it's got one more team any more than it'd be "valid" to leave out the strongest team. I think the theoretcial "every team against every team" series is a better way to look at it.

DaveK
March 5th, 2007, 12:26 PM
Friends,

It is not that the Big 10 teams can't beat the SEC schools. They can. Yes, Wisconsin can beat Arkansas. The difference comes if you played Vanderbilt and Illinois, Ole Miss and Indiana, Alabama and Purdue.

The cream of the crop is the cream of the crop. The SEC however is so much deeper than every other conference out there. Yeah, Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin can play with just about anyone. However, it is when you get into the #7,8,9 teams that the difference is made.

We saw Florida hammer OSU and Wisconsin edge Arkansas (who isn't the league's #2, btw). Every other game is speculation.

If you did manage to play #1 v. #1 (already done), 2 v. 2, 3 v. 3 etc, I think the SEC would win 8 of the 11 (considering you throw out Mississippi State as the SEC has one more team).

It was commented that Florida, at one point, played 5 ranked teams in a row. You don't get that in any other conference. You just don't.

I disagree. I think if you played 1 vs. 1, 2 vs. 2, etc.... the Big 10 would take probably at least 6 if not 7 of 11. Although there are some good teams at the top, the bottom of the SEC is very weak. Vanderbilt? C'mon!!! They'd get massacred by half the teams in I-AA.

Appaholic
March 5th, 2007, 03:06 PM
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

We are playing Michigan....not Chadron State.....:doh:

Appaholic
March 5th, 2007, 03:16 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan.......I know it sounds delusional, but aren't all true fans delusional at times.....

We win because:

1- based upon the UM msg brd, we are a joke and are desecrating their field

2- there are going to be more app fans than expected and more empty seats than expected....UM fans revolt against scheduling "Div 1-AA" team......UM team start to think that fans don't care about them......

3- UM doesn't take this game seriously....don't realize our team speed is a problem.....

4- the UM fans that do show up to cheer are too drunk to offer support after trying to hang with the App St tailgaters.......

5- after improbable win in Big House, rowdy ASU fans rip down a goalpost, strap it to the newly-dubbed "Lloyd" car and drive it back to Boone to be be properly disposed of in duck pond.....mark it down!

:beerchug: xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x:beerchug:

BisonBacker
March 5th, 2007, 04:51 PM
UUUmmm Ok if you say so I guess :rolleyes:

SIUallDay
April 17th, 2007, 05:01 PM
SIU should beat Northern....they should have won the last time they played the Huskies

phillyAPP
April 17th, 2007, 05:40 PM
Keep ON ChUGGING APPAHOLIC !!!!!!!!!!

I hope we are respectable, and nobody gets hurt.

And Hell, if we WIN, GOD BLESS ASU.

Col Hogan
April 17th, 2007, 05:49 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan.......We win because:

1- based upon the UM msg brd, we are a joke and are desecrating their field

2- there are going to be more app fans than expected and more empty seats than expected....UM fans revolt against scheduling "Div 1-AA" team......UM team start to think that fans don't care about them......

3- UM doesn't take this game seriously....don't realize our team speed is a problem.....

4- the UM fans that do show up to cheer are too drunk to offer support after trying to hang with the App St tailgaters.......

5- after improbable win in Big House, rowdy ASU fans rip down a goalpost, strap it to the newly-dubbed "Lloyd" car and drive it back to Boone to be be properly disposed of in duck pond.....mark it down!

:beerchug: xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x:beerchug:

I'll be pulling for App State all the way....







But.....













I want some of the stuff you are smoking!xsmiley_wix

AZGrizFan
April 17th, 2007, 05:52 PM
I like this one:



3- UM doesn't take this game seriously....don't realize our team speed is a problem.....


:beerchug: xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x:beerchug:

Note to Appaholic: It may be a problem for FCS teams, but I somehow doubt you guys'll be faster than the Michigan squad. Just a hunch.....

Umass74
April 17th, 2007, 06:21 PM
We'll all be Mountaineer fans on that day.

It would fun to put a scare into Michigan fans. I went to the UMass-Kansas State game in 2003.

After the first quarter it was 7-0 UMass and it was the quietest 56,000 fans you ever heard...

Good luck.

AppGuy04
April 17th, 2007, 07:44 PM
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

apparently satire isn't in your vocabulary

Za-KEE-uS
April 17th, 2007, 07:45 PM
I think McNeese can take ULL
If UCA has the team they had last year, they could beat La Tech

T-Dog
April 17th, 2007, 07:46 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan.......I know it sounds delusional, but aren't all true fans delusional at times.....

We win because:

1- based upon the UM msg brd, we are a joke and are desecrating their field

2- there are going to be more app fans than expected and more empty seats than expected....UM fans revolt against scheduling "Div 1-AA" team......UM team start to think that fans don't care about them......

3- UM doesn't take this game seriously....don't realize our team speed is a problem.....

4- the UM fans that do show up to cheer are too drunk to offer support after trying to hang with the App St tailgaters.......

5- after improbable win in Big House, rowdy ASU fans rip down a goalpost, strap it to the newly-dubbed "Lloyd" car and drive it back to Boone to be be properly disposed of in duck pond.....mark it down!

:beerchug: xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x:beerchug:

You forget the part where UM fans tye Lloyd Carr to the goalpost before we leave town out of anger.

And then we all become honorary Buckeye's for life. xthumbsupx (and vice versa if YSU beats OSU)

But besides that, I call it a plan.

HIU 93
April 17th, 2007, 08:58 PM
If the wind blows right, I think SCSU could beat AFA.

GoGuins
April 18th, 2007, 06:44 AM
:homer: ASU vs. Michigan I don't care how much of a homer I am, we will be singing hail to the victors late into the night....


You'll be hearing it a lot during the game after the many Michigan TD's:)

phillyAPP
April 18th, 2007, 07:18 AM
We'll all be Mountaineer fans on that day.

It would fun to put a scare into Michigan fans. I went to the UMass-Kansas State game in 2003.

After the first quarter it was 7-0 UMass and it was the quietest 56,000 fans you ever heard...

Good luck.

I can remember 2002 APP at Auburn, Tubberville's first game. Silent 70,000 Auburn fans until less than a minute left in 4th quarter. Auburn scores but APP was winning almost the whole game. War Eagles want to fire Tubberville after his first game.

What a great sound, silent 1-A fans.

andy7171
April 18th, 2007, 08:35 AM
If Villanova gets ther heads on straight and plays Maryland like its the Super Bowl, I think they could give the Twerps a run for their money. Maryland is a team that ALWAYS takes easy games EXTREMELY lightly. They barely beat W&M last year and had to rely on special teams to hold off Florida International. With the exception of 2-3 players, Maryland is below average as far as speed is concerned.
New QB, lesser opponent, first game of the season. Villanova could do it.

RabidRabbit
April 18th, 2007, 09:26 AM
Best Chances of a FCS win over a FBS team

1) Cal Poly over Idaho
2) McNeese over ULL
3) NDSU over Minn (more so than the MAC leader - Cent Mich)
4) UNI over IA St
5) JMU over UNC
6) Maine over UConn
7) SCSU over AFA
8) UNH over Marshall
9) Portland St. over San Diego St.
10) SeLA over Tulane or NMSU

Great success to ALL the FCS teams playing higher schollie teams!

jstate83
April 18th, 2007, 09:32 AM
Heck....................If ALCORN do a better job of punching the ball into the endzone when they get inside the 10 yard line, they will beat UAB this year.xnodx

I could not believe how many times they drove the field on Lou-Laffeyette? only to fumble or screw up inside the red zone.xsmhx

appfan2008
April 18th, 2007, 09:45 AM
Best Chances of a FCS win over a FBS team

1) Cal Poly over Idaho
2) McNeese over ULL
3) NDSU over Minn (more so than the MAC leader - Cent Mich)
4) UNI over IA St
5) JMU over UNC
6) Maine over UConn
7) SCSU over AFA
8) UNH over Marshall
9) Portland St. over San Diego St.
10) SeLA over Tulane or NMSU

Great success to ALL the FCS teams playing higher schollie teams!
i would say the jmu over unc game should be higher but other than that nice list

andy7171
April 18th, 2007, 10:03 AM
Best Chances of a FCS win over a FBS team

1) Cal Poly over Idaho
2) McNeese over ULL
3) NDSU over Minn (more so than the MAC leader - Cent Mich)
4) UNI over IA St
5) JMU over UNC
6) Maine over UConn
7) SCSU over AFA
8) UNH over Marshall
9) Portland St. over San Diego St.
10) SeLA over Tulane or NMSU

Great success to ALL the FCS teams playing higher schollie teams!
Really? Not knowing anything much about ither team. I would think that the 10-9 game last year scared the crap out of Minnesota. They almost got caught with their pants down. Lightening rarely strikes twice. I don't see the Gophers taking the NDSU team lightly again.

Again, I don't know much about either teams stregths or weaknesses. Just going on psychological circumstances alone. While the NDSU team is playing the biggest competition and will be undoubtedly up for the game. Minnesota is going to be out to show they aren't the push over they almost were.

Col Hogan
April 18th, 2007, 10:14 AM
Really? Not knowing anything much about ither team. I would think that the 10-9 game last year scared the crap out of Minnesota. They almost got caught with their pants down. Lightening rarely strikes twice. I don't see the Gophers taking the NDSU team lightly again.

Again, I don't know much about either teams stregths or weaknesses. Just going on psychological circumstances alone. While the NDSU team is playing the biggest competition and will be undoubtedly up for the game. Minnesota is going to be out to show they aren't the push over they almost were.

Good points. I'd love to see all FCS teams beat FBS teams...but I think Andy hit this one square on the head...I'm betting the Gophers have this date marked on their schedule in BOLD letters...

RabidRabbit
April 18th, 2007, 10:29 AM
Really? Not knowing anything much about ither team. I would think that the 10-9 game last year scared the crap out of Minnesota. They almost got caught with their pants down. Lightening rarely strikes twice. I don't see the Gophers taking the NDSU team lightly again.

Again, I don't know much about either teams stregths or weaknesses. Just going on psychological circumstances alone. While the NDSU team is playing the biggest competition and will be undoubtedly up for the game. Minnesota is going to be out to show they aren't the push over they almost were.

Minn vs NDSU even though played at the HHH dome will be 40% or more a NDSU crowd. Yes, Minn will have this circled and bolded, but NDSU is bringing in a team as capable as last year. xtwocentsx

Likewise, Cent. Mich saw what NDSU did their conference mate Ball St., and will be ready for the Bison. xoopsx

BTW, while that list are likely candidates for wins, the sequence was not intensional. IE as likely that SeLA knocks off Tulane as McNeese off ULL as example.

andy7171
April 18th, 2007, 12:25 PM
Minn vs NDSU even though played at the HHH dome will be 40% or more a NDSU crowd. Yes, Minn will have this circled and bolded, but NDSU is bringing in a team as capable as last year. xtwocentsx

Likewise, Cent. Mich saw what NDSU did their conference mate Ball St., and will be ready for the Bison. xoopsx

BTW, while that list are likely candidates for wins, the sequence was not intensional. IE as likely that SeLA knocks off Tulane as McNeese off ULL as example.
Don't get me wrong. I'll be rooting for the Bison that weekend. I love FCS/FBS upsets. xthumbsupx

Go Bison
April 18th, 2007, 01:01 PM
Really? Not knowing anything much about ither team. I would think that the 10-9 game last year scared the crap out of Minnesota. They almost got caught with their pants down. Lightening rarely strikes twice. I don't see the Gophers taking the NDSU team lightly again.

Again, I don't know much about either teams stregths or weaknesses. Just going on psychological circumstances alone. While the NDSU team is playing the biggest competition and will be undoubtedly up for the game. Minnesota is going to be out to show they aren't the push over they almost were.

I guess Minnesota's offensive and defensive lines didn't show up last year for the game because NDSU dominated in the trenches. I think in some of the skill positions Minnesota has an advantage but NDSU has good OL and DL and a QB that is great. It will be a fun game again this year. Maybe NDSU will be even more motivated.

GeauxLions94
April 18th, 2007, 01:54 PM
I haven't read all the posts but I don't think I'm being a homer when I say I think McNeese at Louisiana Lafayette might be the most probable FCS win next season. I don't want to get too excited but I think that if everybody stays healthy and eligible...and if all of the newcomers pan out... the Cowboys have a chance to be back to the general level they were usually at during 1991 - 2003. ULL is consistently one of the worst teams in I-A/FBS. The Cajuns lost their starting QB and the guy that's been backing him up, frankly, has been a horrible passer (runs well). They lost some other key people too. 2006 was supposed to be "their" year...they were picked to win the Sun Belt...but they finshed 5-7 and tied for 5th place at 3-4 in the worst I-A league.

Bottom line is I think there's a good chance McNeese will be notably better next year while ULL...which is always really bad as I-A/FCS teams go to begin with...will be weaker. And it's not a long road trip. About 60 miles down the road.

xhomerx xhomerx xhomerx xhomerx xhomerx

I like the Cowboys' chances as well. xthumbsupx

Za-KEE-uS
April 18th, 2007, 04:45 PM
I'm no ASU fan, but please remember
No. 6 LSU 24, Appalachian State 0, it shouldn't be a HUGE blowout

Mountain Panther
April 18th, 2007, 04:47 PM
I gotta think we have a decent shot at Iowa State.

McNeese72
April 18th, 2007, 05:17 PM
xhomerx xhomerx xhomerx xhomerx xhomerx

I like the Cowboys' chances as well. xthumbsupx

Hey, there is a reason some of the Cajun fans have gotten the nickname: K-sips. ;)


Doc

Fresno St. Alum
April 18th, 2007, 05:27 PM
San Jose St. is much improved, I don't know how many players they lost from their bowl team last year. UC Davis should give them a good tight game.xthumbsupx

skinny_uncle
April 18th, 2007, 10:00 PM
SIU over Northern Illinois.
Book it!
xhomerx

appfan2008
April 18th, 2007, 10:21 PM
I'm no ASU fan, but please remember
No. 6 LSU 24, Appalachian State 0, it shouldn't be a HUGE blowout
what that score doesnt show is that we were down 14-0 going into the fourth and we had missed a short field goal already as well as dropped a sure touchdown pass on a different possesion... i know i know... its a big case of coulda woulda shoulda... but... i am just saying it was even closer than the score!

blackfordpu
April 18th, 2007, 10:24 PM
No mention of the SHSU@Ok. State game?

The Kats have a chance in this one.

Casey_Orourke
April 18th, 2007, 11:54 PM
PSU and SDSU will be interesting if only to see how JG's debut as Head Coach pans out.

Even though this might be wishful thinking, I hope Montana State beats up on Texas A&M mainly because here in Central Texas all we hear about is UT this and A&M that. I frankly get sick of hearing about it, especially when one of them are in the running for the "FICTIONAL NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP,"if you get my drift.

Appaholic
September 7th, 2007, 09:13 PM
Appalachian State at Michigan.......I know it sounds delusional, but aren't all true fans delusional at times.....

We win because:

1- based upon the UM msg brd, we are a joke and are desecrating their field

2- there are going to be more app fans than expected and more empty seats than expected....UM fans revolt against scheduling "Div 1-AA" team......UM team start to think that fans don't care about them......

3- UM doesn't take this game seriously....don't realize our team speed is a problem.....

4- the UM fans that do show up to cheer are too drunk to offer support after trying to hang with the App St tailgaters.......

5- after improbable win in Big House, rowdy ASU fans rip down a goalpost, strap it to the newly-dubbed "Lloyd" car and drive it back to Boone to be be properly disposed of in duck pond.....mark it down!

:beerchug: xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x xprost2x:beerchug:

Hate to say it, but.............xthumbsupx

skinny_uncle
September 8th, 2007, 07:19 AM
I gotta think we have a decent shot at Iowa State.
I agree.

skinny_uncle
September 8th, 2007, 02:08 PM
Rhode Island is hanging with Army. 7-7 with 6:20 left in the third Q

skinny_uncle
September 8th, 2007, 10:07 PM
SIU over Northern Illinois.
Book it!
xhomerx
:D

skinny_uncle
September 8th, 2007, 10:09 PM
I gotta think we have a decent shot at Iowa State.
:D

ChickenMan
September 8th, 2007, 10:12 PM
After seeing Navy and Delaware each twice this year.. I'd say UD has at least a 50/50 shot at another win in Annapolis.

igo4uni
September 9th, 2007, 12:48 AM
SIU over Northern Illinois.
Book it!
xhomerx

nice call.

skinny_uncle
September 9th, 2007, 10:18 AM
nice call.
TYVM!