Heading into Saturday (Bubble Watch)

[FUGameBreaker]

Updated to show 30 teams to keep our eyes on with a great shot at the FCS playoffs:

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
NAU
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh
Colgate

[BisonTru]

As long as NDSU doesn't forget to pay off the refs this week. Sounds about right.

[grizband]

I count 37, but that includes teams who have already clinched a conference bid, and eligible teams who are not likely to actually gain a bid.

[FUGameBreaker]

I am counting Illinois State in my 27 teams still in contention for a spot (not expecting them to win though)

- - - Updated - - -


I count 37, but that includes teams who have already clinched a conference bid, and eligible teams who are not likely to actually gain a bid.


Wooah! 37????

[Reign of Terrier]

Someone put up a list?

[katss07]

I’ve got 36 teams in contention for 24 spots. Nicholls is done.

[FUGameBreaker]

I could bump my number to 28 actually if WCU beats UNC, ill list my 28 teams in my next post

[katss07]

Western Carolina is an interesting case. But unless they beat UNC, no chance. I would think Duquense would get in over them. Duquense is the last team on my list. If things go crazy, they have an outside chance.

[FUGameBreaker]

28 teams:

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
UNA
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego

- - - Updated - - -


Western Carolina is an interesting case. But unless they beat UNC, no chance. I would think Duquense would get in over them. Duquense is the last team on my list. If things go crazy, they have an outside chance.


Duquense, no way!

[Reign of Terrier]

Cutting and pasting from Kalm's post in another thread (cut down for simplicity)

Playoff Locks:

Big Sky:
1. SUU,
2. Weber

Big South:
3. Winner of Kennesaw State v. Monmouth
CAA:
4. JMU,
5. SBU,
6.Elon

MVFC:
7. NDSU,
8. SDSU

NEC:
9. CCSU

OVC:
10. JSU

Patriot:
11. Lehigh

Pioneer:
12. San Diego

SoCon:
13. Wofford

SLC:
14. UCA,
15. SHSU

So 15 spots are spoken for.

Win and in:

Big Sky:
NAU
(@ SUU (8-2)

CAA:
UD
(@ Nova (4-6),

UNH
(@ Albany (3-7)

MVFC:
UNI
(@ ISUb (0-10),

WIU
(@ SIU (4-6)

SoCon:
Winner of Furman @ Samford (7-3)

If all these teams win that gets us to 21 spots taken, leaving 3 spots to be filled by:

Bubble:

Big Sky:
EWU (6-4)
(v. PSU (0-10)

Montana (7-3)
(@ MSU (4-6),

Sac State (6-4)
v Davis (5-5)

MVFC:
ISU (6-4))
(v. NDSU (9-1),

USD
(v. SDSU (8-2)

Socon:
Loser of Furman (7-3) @ Samford (7-3)

Big South:
Loser of Monmouth (9-1) @ Kennesaw (9-1)

SLC:
McNeese (8-2)
@Lamar 2-8

OVC:
Austin Peay (7-4)
(v. EIU (6-4).

[grizband]

Again, teams who technically can get in; no judgement on the likelihood of their entry into the playoffs.

Big Sky
*Weber State (8-2)
*Southern Utah (7-2)
*Northern Arizona (7-3)
*Montana (7-3)

Eastern Washington (6-4) must go 1-0
Sacramento State (6-4) must go 1-0

Big South
*Monmouth (9-1)
*Kennesaw State (9-1)

Colonial
*James Madison (10-0)
*Stony Brook (8-2)
*Elon (8-2)
*New Hampshire (7-3)
*Delaware (7-3)

MEAC
*Howard (7-3)

NC Central (7-2) must go 1-0#
Bethune-Cookman (6-4) must go 1-0

Missouri Valley
*North Dakota State (9-1)
*South Dakota State (8-2) must go 1-2
*South Dakota (7-3)
*Western Illinois (7-3)

Northern Iowa (6-4) must go 1-0
Illinois State (6-4) must go 1-0

Northeast
CCSU (7-3) must go 1-0#
Duquesne (7-3) must go 1-0#

Ohio Valley
*Jacksonville State (9-1)
*Austin Peay (7-4)
Eastern Illinois (6-4) must go 1-0

Patriot
Colgate (6-4) must go 1-0

Pioneer
*San Diego (8-2)#

Southern
*Wofford (9-1)
*Furman (7-3)
*Western Carolina (7-4) +
Samford (7-3) must go 1-0#

Southland
*Central Arkansas (9-1)
*Sam Houston State (9-1)
*McNeese (8-2)#

[katss07]

List of teams still in contention.

Locks
NDSU
SDSU
WIU
JMU
Elon
Stony Brook
Weber
SUU
Jacksonville St
Wofford
CCSU
San Diego
UCA
SHSU

Bubble
USD
ISUr
UNH
Deleware
NAU
Monmouth
Kennesaw
EWU
Sac St
Howard
Duquense
Colgate
Lehigh
Jacksonville U
Samford
Furman
WCU
McNeese
EIU
Montana
Austin Peay
UNI

Thats 14 locks, 22 bubble teams. Only 10 spots up for grabs come Saturday.

[Reign of Terrier]

Games of interest this week; bolded teams clinch a playoff birth with win. italicized teams are eliminated with a loss. Underlined teams are "wait and see" (i.e not sure if they get in or not with a win and not necessarily eliminated with a loss)

NAU @ SUU
UD @ Nova
UNI @ ISU-b
UNH @ Albany
WIU @ SIU
Furman @ Samford
EWU @ PSU
Montana @ MSU
Sac State @ Davis
ISU @ NDSU (ISU is weird, but they'll probably lose so it doesn't matter)
USD @ SDSU
Monmouth @ Kennesaw
McNeese @ Lamar
EIU @ Austin Peay


Basically South Dakota, McNeese, ISU-R and Austin Peay are at this weird spot where I have no idea where the committee puts them if they win this weekend

Furman, New Hampshire, Delaware, Montana, Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington are probably the strongest bubble teams and in all likelihood UD and UNH will be part of the field.

Loser of Monmouth and Kennesaw is a big big question mark.

[katss07]

I think McNeese is in a win and you’re in situation. Committee will not turn down a 9 win team.

Strongest bubble teams right now are, IMO
USD
UNH
Furman
Montana
Samford
UNI
Kennesaw if the lose

[Reign of Terrier]

I think McNeese is in a win and you’re in situation. Committee will not turn down a 9 win team.

Strongest bubble teams right now are, IMO
USD
UNH
Furman
Montana
Samford
UNI
Kennesaw if the lose

They've done it before. 2002 Wofford team went 9-3, 8-2 against FCS competition, beat 2 playoff teams (App State, Georgia Southern AT their place) and lost to Furman somewhat close at home and a 6-6 VMI team.

Our resume was better; in a 24 team field we'd probably make it. But it's definitely not a lock for McNeese.

[katss07]

They've done it before. 2002 Wofford team went 9-3, 8-2 against FCS competition, beat 2 playoff teams (App State, Georgia Southern AT their place) and lost to Furman somewhat close at home and a 6-6 VMI team.

Our resume was better; in a 24 team field we'd probably make it. But it's definitely not a lock for McNeese.

Definitely not a lock, but I think they will put them in. If the Cowboys take care of Lamar they should be in. 9-2 is a good enough record, and they are a top 20 team. McNeese maybe hasn’t shown it, as they lost two out of three of their biggest games. But they deserve a shot. Hope to see them in Huntsville in round two.

[grizband]

They've done it before. 2002 Wofford team went 9-3, 8-2 against FCS competition, beat 2 playoff teams (App State, Georgia Southern AT their place) and lost to Furman somewhat close at home and a 6-6 VMI team.

Our resume was better; in a 24 team field we'd probably make it. But it's definitely not a lock for McNeese.
Just look up the term "Woofed" on this site.

[FUGameBreaker]

Woops yes I forgot Lehigh

[FUGameBreaker]

So I really see 29 teams with an actual good chance (some need big wins this Saturday, and a few bubble loses):

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
UNA
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh

[FUBeAR]

So by my count with the Nicholls loss there are now 27 teams (24 spots) still in playoff contention (that's counting teams that have already clinched)? Is this correct? Thoughts?

Just asking for fun and since ESPN gives them a .03% chance of winning Saturday, what if Mercer beats Alabama?

They would be 6-5 / 4-4 in the SoCon with...
* a win over FBS #1;
* a close loss that wasn't decided until the final 4 minutes with FBS #6 (Auburn);
* wins over then-ranked CIT & WCU;
* a 1 point loss (after dominating most of the game) to a highly ranked & possible seed, SoCon AQ, Wofford;
* a late-game 1 score loss to another ranked & probable Playoff Team & probable SoCon Co-Champ, Furman;
* an ugly (20-3) (Offense was kidnapped by aliens) loss to possible Playoff Team, Samford;
* and an ugly OT loss to ETSU.

Any shot at getting in the field (assuming the premise...just go with it)?

REMEMBER NOW, they would have just accomplished the greatest upset in the history of College Football. They would be the talk of the nation. Could the committee NOT include them and face the (true) National Media?

JUST FOR FUN, NOW. NO WAGERING!!

[katss07]

Lehigh could still lose the PL. A Colgate win and Lehigh loss means the Raiders get the Patriot auto bid.

[FUGameBreaker]

These teams have no shot basically, to weak resume, won't be spots for them (other than Colgate if they win and Lehigh loses)

Sac St
Howard
Duquense
Colgate
Jacksonville U
EIU
Austin Peay

[FUGameBreaker]

Just asking for fun and since ESPN gives them a .03% chance of winning Saturday, what if Mercer beats Alabama?

They would be 6-5 / 4-4 in the SoCon with...
* a win over FBS #1;
* a close loss that wasn't decided until the final 4 minutes with FBS #6 (Auburn);
* wins over then-ranked CIT & WCU;
* a 1 point loss (after dominating most of the game) to a highly ranked & possible seed, SoCon AQ, Wofford;
* a late-game 1 score loss to another ranked & probable Playoff Team & probable SoCon Co-Champ, Furman;
* an ugly (20-3) (Offense was kidnapped by aliens) loss to possible Playoff Team, Samford;
* and an ugly OT loss to ETSU.

Any shot at getting in the field (assuming the premise...just go with it)?

REMEMBER NOW, they would have just accomplished the greatest upset in the history of College Football. They would be the talk of the nation. Could the committee NOT include them and face the (true) National Media?

JUST FOR FUN, NOW. NO WAGERING!!


Ill want them in over Furman if they can beat BAMA!! xnodx

[FUGameBreaker]

So my last list will include Colgate

So I have 30 teams to keep our eyes on this coming Saturday to make the 24 team field (some of you might disagree but I see the 24 coming from this group):

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
NAU
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh
Colgate

[FUBeAR]

Ill want them in over Furman if they can beat BAMA!! xnodx Nope - I'm good with kicking any of the other 13 At-Larges to the curb in that unlikely event, but not the 'Dins. The 'Dins BELONG in the Playoffs this year...moreso than Mercer does...EVEN IF Mercer beats Bama. If I had to choose taking FU out for Mercer, I think I'd lobby for Mercer to be in the CFP instead. :)

[dustinthorn93]

Just a quick question, but will the Selection Show be available for replay on the WatchESPN app?

I'll be at my sister-in-laws baby shower with my wife all day, so I'm going to miss it. I'm going to try avoiding seeing the bracket until I can watch it, but if it's not on the ESPN app, I don't think I'll have a way to watch it.

[katss07]

These teams have no shot basically, to weak resume, won't be spots for them (other than Colgate if they win and Lehigh loses)

Sac St
Howard
Duquense
Colgate
Jacksonville U
EIU
Austin Peay

Austin Peay
Sac St
Colgate

Colgate has no shot at an at large, but they can still make the playoffs. APSU, Sacramento are still very much alive, as are the other teams you listed. Just on the back end of the bubble. Although, Sac St has a reasonable argument the committee should consider. The Hornets are a good team.

[cx500d]

Just a quick question, but will the Selection Show be available for replay on the WatchESPN app?

I'll be at my sister-in-laws baby shower with my wife all day, so I'm going to miss it. I'm going to try avoiding seeing the bracket until I can watch it, but if it's not on the ESPN app, I don't think I'll have a way to watch it.


I don't think it was last replayed year.

[JSUSoutherner]

28 teams:

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
UNA
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego


D2 teams don't participate in the FCS playoffs.

[dustinthorn93]

I don't think it was last replayed year.

I didn't think so. Oh well, it's just a baby shower right? I'm sure I can sneak watch it.

[Bisonoline]

Just a quick question, but will the Selection Show be available for replay on the WatchESPN app?

I'll be at my sister-in-laws baby shower with my wife all day, so I'm going to miss it. I'm going to try avoiding seeing the bracket until I can watch it, but if it's not on the ESPN app, I don't think I'll have a way to watch it.

If you have direct tv you can record it.

[FUGameBreaker]

Austin Peay
Sac St
Colgate

Colgate has no shot at an at large, but they can still make the playoffs. APSU, Sacramento are still very much alive, as are the other teams you listed. Just on the back end of the bubble. Although, Sac St has a reasonable argument the committee should consider. The Hornets are a good team.



Austin Peay
Sac St
There won't be enough bubble teams to lose for those two teams to get in at 8-4 and 7-4, if Saturday gets insane (super insane) then maybe, but I don't see it, their resumes just are not quite strong enough

- - - Updated - - -


D2 teams don't participate in the FCS playoffs.


That is Northern Arizona University, so I meant to type NAU, my bad

[grizband]

So my last list will include Colgate

So I have 30 teams to keep our eyes on this coming Saturday to make the 24 team field (some of you might disagree but I see the 24 coming from this group):

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
NAU
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh
Colgate


D2 teams don't participate in the FCS playoffs.
I can't figure out why people abbreviate Northern Arizona as UNA.

[katss07]

I can't figure out why people abbreviate Northern Arizona as UNA.

Just confusion. Mix up where to put the University part of the school’s name. It’ll get bad next year with North Alabama joining the FCS.

[FUGameBreaker]

I can't figure out why people abbreviate Northern Arizona as UNA.


I was trying to type all the school abbreviations to fast and screwed it on that one lol

[grizband]

So my last list will include Colgate

So I have 30 teams to keep our eyes on this coming Saturday to make the 24 team field (some of you might disagree but I see the 24 coming from this group):

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
NAU
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh
Colgate


D2 teams don't participate in the FCS playoffs.


I can't figure out why people abbreviate Northern Arizona as UNA.


I was trying to type all the school abbreviations to fast and screwed it on that one lol
No worries; I know the first time I read someone abbreviate them as UNA I was confused why Northern Alabama joined the conversation.

[kalm]

Austin Peay
Sac St
There won't be enough bubble teams to lose for those two teams to get in at 8-4 and 7-4, if Saturday gets insane (super insane) then maybe, but I don't see it, their resumes just are not quite strong enough

- - - Updated - - -




That is Northern Arizona University, so I meant to type NAU, my bad

I don't think they get in either, but CSUS has a similar resume to Furman, Samford, and Montana. Equal win to Samford's over Wofford and much better than anything on UM's and Furmans. They also have a better SoS than all three.

A 7-4 Sac would deserve to get in get in over a 7-4 Samford or Furman.

[PaladinFan]

I don't think they get in either, but CSUS has a similar resume to Furman, Samford, and Montana. Equal win to Samford's over Wofford and much better than anything on UM's and Furmans. They also have a better SoS than all three.

A 7-4 Sac would deserve to get in get in over a 7-4 Samford or Furman.

Again, all this is subjective.

By the prior poster's standard, Sacramento State has one win over a team with a winning record (Southern Utah). They will probably finish fifth or sixth in the Big Sky.

At this stage of the season, we can make arguments for or against every team in the country sitting on the bubble. It's all a matter of perspective and through what lens do you want to view it.

To be contrarian, I would say that if Furman had played Incarnate Word (1-10) instead of Elon (8-2) or NC State, Furman would probably have 8 wins right now and it wouldn't even be a discussion.

[katss07]

I don't think they get in either, but CSUS has a similar resume to Furman, Samford, and Montana. Equal win to Samford's over Wofford and much better than anything on UM's and Furmans. They also have a better SoS than all three.

A 7-4 Sac would deserve to get in get in over a 7-4 Samford or Furman.

I agree with this here. Sac St is hot and has played like one of the best Big Sky teams recently. They should get in over the loser of this game. They could be in if things fall their way. Kinda hope they get in. They are the Nicholls of the BSC.

[Professor Chaos]

Again, all this is subjective.

By the prior poster's standard, Sacramento State has one win over a team with a winning record (Southern Utah). They will probably finish fifth or sixth in the Big Sky.

At this stage of the season, we can make arguments for or against every team in the country sitting on the bubble. It's all a matter of perspective and through what lens do you want to view it.

To be contrarian, I would say that if Furman had played Incarnate Word (1-10) instead of Elon (8-2) or NC State, Furman would probably have 8 wins right now and it wouldn't even be a discussion.
They'd actually be tied for 3rd in the Big Sky at 6-2. They did put together a pretty decent OOC schedule. FBS game and their Weber St game was actually an OOC game. I do agree though that Furman/Samford at 7-4 would be very close with Sac St at 7-4 so it would just be a matter of what criteria you value more when placing those teams in relation to each other. I don't think either gets in though unless there's 3 or more losses coming from the group of ISUr, NAU, UNH, Delaware, McNeese, and Montana.

[walliver]

Just asking for fun and since ESPN gives them a .03% chance of winning Saturday, what if Mercer beats Alabama?

They would be 6-5 / 4-4 in the SoCon with...
* a win over FBS #1;
* a close loss that wasn't decided until the final 4 minutes with FBS #6 (Auburn);
* wins over then-ranked CIT & WCU;
* a 1 point loss (after dominating most of the game) to a highly ranked & possible seed, SoCon AQ, Wofford;
* a late-game 1 score loss to another ranked & probable Playoff Team & probable SoCon Co-Champ, Furman;
* an ugly (20-3) (Offense was kidnapped by aliens) loss to possible Playoff Team, Samford;
* and an ugly OT loss to ETSU.

Any shot at getting in the field (assuming the premise...just go with it)?

REMEMBER NOW, they would have just accomplished the greatest upset in the history of College Football. They would be the talk of the nation. Could the committee NOT include them and face the (true) National Media?

JUST FOR FUN, NOW. NO WAGERING!!

The bid will be delivered by pigs flying in s lead zeppelin from the freezing depths of hell😀

The game will likely be closer than many expect as Nick Sabin plays these game to win, but not to showboat.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[kalm]

They'd actually be tied for 3rd in the Big Sky at 6-2. They did put together a pretty decent OOC schedule. FBS game and their Weber St game was actually an OOC game. I do agree though that Furman/Samford at 7-4 would be very close with Sac St at 7-4 so it would just be a matter of what criteria you value more when placing those teams in relation to each other. I don't think either gets in though unless there's 3 or more losses coming from the group of ISUr, NAU, UNH, Delaware, McNeese, and Montana.

Correct and PaladinFan, Sac's SoS is 22. Furman's is 36, and Samford's is 38. I think the resume's are very similar.

[JSUSoutherner]

Just asking for fun and since ESPN gives them a .03% chance of winning Saturday, what if Mercer beats Alabama?

They would be 6-5 / 4-4 in the SoCon with...
* a win over FBS #1;
* a close loss that wasn't decided until the final 4 minutes with FBS #6 (Auburn);
* wins over then-ranked CIT & WCU;
* a 1 point loss (after dominating most of the game) to a highly ranked & possible seed, SoCon AQ, Wofford;
* a late-game 1 score loss to another ranked & probable Playoff Team & probable SoCon Co-Champ, Furman;
* an ugly (20-3) (Offense was kidnapped by aliens) loss to possible Playoff Team, Samford;
* and an ugly OT loss to ETSU.

Any shot at getting in the field (assuming the premise...just go with it)?

REMEMBER NOW, they would have just accomplished the greatest upset in the history of College Football. They would be the talk of the nation. Could the committee NOT include them and face the (true) National Media?

JUST FOR FUN, NOW. NO WAGERING!!

If Mercer beats Bama we need to just cancel to playoffs and crown Mercer National Champion.

[FUGameBreaker]

Sagarin says Sac. St. 145 overall, that's pretty weak for a potential playoff team

Furman is at 104
Samford at 110

[FUGameBreaker]

Sacremento State also got beat really bad by Idaho, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona (also barely beat a bad North Dakota team)

Not things you want on your resume, so 7-4 Furman or 7-4 Samford trump Sac. St. for sure

[FUGameBreaker]

Also, and this is a biggie, the Big Sky and SoCon are virtually even leagues, at 7-4 Furman or Samford would enter the playoffs as the 3rd SoCon team

The Big Sky will already have Montana, Northern Arizona and EWU as bubble teams (to go along with Weber St. and Southern Utah as locks)

Sacramento State will not even get a look at 7-4 ahead of those other Big Sky teams, there is no way the Big Sky warrants more than 4 bids, and that's truth xsmiley_wix


The Big Sky with either get Southern Utah, Weber St., Montana and EWU

OR if Northern Arizona beats Southern Utah, they will take the place of EWU

Or is Montana loses, insert EWU back in the field

[FUGameBreaker]

The 24 bids to the playoffs will come from this 30 team pool, read it, wipe it, money is on the dresser:

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
NAU
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh
Colgate

[katss07]

I don’t see Sac St in this list

[KPSUL]

Just a quick question, but will the Selection Show be available for replay on the WatchESPN app?

I'll be at my sister-in-laws baby shower with my wife all day, so I'm going to miss it. I'm going to try avoiding seeing the bracket until I can watch it, but if it's not on the ESPN app, I don't think I'll have a way to watch it.

An all day baby-shower on a Sunday during football season? I wouldn't miss that selection show to TAKE a shower with my sister-in-law!

[McNeese75]

An all day baby-shower on a Sunday during football season? I wouldn't miss that selection show to TAKE a shower with my sister-in-law!

xeyebrowx might have to give that one some thought xlolx

[katss07]

Sacremento State also got beat really bad by Idaho, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona (also barely beat a bad North Dakota team)

Not things you want on your resume, so 7-4 Furman or 7-4 Samford trump Sac. St. for sure

EWU is good. Sure, it has been a down year on the red turf by Eagles fans standards, but they are still a potential playoff team. Idaho is an FBS school. They will be a top BSC team next season. NAU is also decent. Another bubble team. Every team plays a bad game. That was the UND game for the Hornets. Furman had that against a weak Murcer team.

Sac St deserves credit, as they have silently emerged as a playoff contender and are still in play for a top 3 finish in the BSC. The Strength of Schedule is not bad. Resumes are fairly equal. If Furman gets in at 7-4, you have to give Sacramento State at least some consideration.

[Schism55]

I don’t see Sac St in this list
Because they aren't making it...unless there is a bubble apocalypse tomorrow.

[FUGameBreaker]

Because they aren't making it...unless there is a bubble apocalypse tomorrow.


Exactly!

[katss07]

Because they aren't making it...unless there is a bubble apocalypse tomorrow.

Stranger things have happened. If Montana, Furman, NAU, USD, ISUr all lose, they have a decent case. Loser of Kennesaw Monmouth getting blow out would also help. That list was a list of teams who have a decent chance to get in. I would have included Sacramento State.

[wcugrad95]

Also, and this is a biggie, the Big Sky and SoCon are virtually even leagues, at 7-4 Furman or Samford would enter the playoffs as the 3rd SoCon team

Question about where WCU falls relative to Samford. I don't think Western has a chance without an upset of UNC, but if Samford loses WCU and Samford are tied for 3rd in the Socon and WCU would own the head-to-head win. If Samford and WCU are both 7-win teams, would either really be considered? And if they would, would Samford's win over Wofford and KSU along with a DII win trump Western's H2H win over the Bulldogs? I know 7-4 sounds better than 7-5, but the 12th data point is a 2nd FBS game for the Catamounts and Western doesn't have a loss as bad as Samford's to UTC. I'd think a 7-win Furman has a better chance than a 7-win Samford.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I’ve got 36 teams in contention for 24 spots. Nicholls is done.

Nicholls should have been out even if they won and been 8-3... they played 72d ranked SOS, and beat 4 very weak teams by average of 6 points .. 3 of the 4 at home. They had only one decent win against an marginally good McNeese St ... nothing else to brag about except playing Texas A&M within 10 points week 1. Since then, they've done nothing to impress .. yesterday's loss should not have mattered.

[katss07]

Nicholls should have been out even if they won and been 8-3... they played 72d ranked SOS, and beat 4 very weak teams by average of 6 points .. 3 of the 4 at home. They had only one decent win against an marginally good McNeese St ... nothing else to brag about except playing Texas A&M within 10 points week 1. Since then, they've done nothing to impress .. yesterday's loss should not have mattered.

I get where you are coming from, but I think that the committee would have still given them a chance, and a spot in the playoffs. If Nicholls shouldn’t have been in the conversation, why is McNeese in it now. The bottom line is, NSU can’t control their schedule, they can only win the games. They won most of em. If they would have been 9-2 they should/would have been in.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I get where you are coming from, but I think that the committee would have still given them a chance, and a spot in the playoffs. If Nicholls shouldn’t have been in the conversation, why is McNeese in it now. The bottom line is, NSU can’t control their schedule, they can only win the games. They won most of em. If they would have been 9-2 they should/would have been in.

My point is not only did they play a very weak SOS, but 4 of their wins were weak:

- beat 1-9 Houston Baptist by 6 at home
- beat 2-8 Abilene by 9 at home
- beat 3-7 NW LA by 4 at home
- beat 1-9 Incarnate Word by 7 on road

Those aret 4 bad wins .. got to blow at least 2 of those teams out. Then that combined with just one pretty good win (by 2 over McNeese St) and one good loss (TX A&M by 10). The idea that them beating 5-5 SELA to go 8-3 would get them playoff is just weak. Their 2 only good games were in weeks 1 & 2 .. they been very weak since.

So with just 1 pretty good win and 1 good loss, both 2 months ago ... not a playoff resume even at 8-3.

[Go...gate]

Updated to show 30 teams to keep our eyes on with a great shot at the FCS playoffs:

JMU
JSU
UCA
NDSU
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
South Dakota
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
Ill. State
KSU
NAU
UNI
Monmouth
Delaware
Montana
WCU
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh
Colgate

Us?

[FUGameBreaker]

Us?


If Lehigh loses and Colgate wins, YES!

[katss07]

Us?

Crazy huh?!?! Damn the Patriot is down this year...

[McNeese75]

My point is not only did they play a very weak SOS, but 4 of their wins were weak:

- beat 1-9 Houston Baptist by 6 at home
- beat 2-8 Abilene by 9 at home
- beat 3-7 NW LA by 4 at home
- beat 1-9 Incarnate Word by 7 on road

Those aret 4 bad wins .. got to blow at least 2 of those teams out. Then that combined with just one pretty good win (by 2 over McNeese St) and one good loss (TX A&M by 10). The idea that them beating 5-5 SELA to go 8-3 would get them playoff is just weak. Their 2 only good games were in weeks 1 & 2 .. they been very weak since.

So with just 1 pretty good win and 1 good loss, both 2 months ago ... not a playoff resume even at 8-3.

If Nicholls would have won last night they would be 9-2 not 8-3.

[Go...gate]

If Lehigh loses and Colgate wins, YES!

Yes, but that is the Automatic Bid. No way a 7-4 Colgate club, even an improving one, warrants an At-Large invitation this year.

[FUGameBreaker]

Yes, but that is the Automatic Bid. No way a 7-4 Colgate club, even an improving one, warrants an At-Large invitation this year.


Nobody ever said they did, the only reason they are on the list is because they still have a shot at the patriot autobid

[katss07]

My Current Bubble Watch, in no particular order.


1. USD- Currently on the inside of the bubble, but tough situation. SDSU is strong. Need a win or risk sweating out the selections.
2. ISUr- Simple. Its do or die this afternoon in Normal.
3. Delaware- UD has played well this year. Avoid a letdown against Nova and your probably in.
4. UNH- If they win, the committee will put them in. Good team, showed it against Elon.
5. Monmouth- Win and your in. Lose and wait. Likely to miss playoffs if they lose at KSU today.
6. Kennesaw- Same situation as Monmouth, but better chance at an at large bid should they lose.
7. NAU- Has slid down the Big Sky lately. A win against SUU would lock them in. They are close, but still on the bubble.
7. EWU- Must win against rival Portland St. Shouldn’t be an issue. Expect to see EWU in unless they have a massive letdown.
8. Sac St- Outside looking in. Don’t count them out yet. If things get wild today, they have a strong case.
9. Howard- 7-3 team from a weak conference. All they have going for them is the UNLV win. Maybe they have a shot, but I doubt they get in.
10. Duquense- Same situation as Sac St. If things get wild, they might have a case. Have to play well this week.
11. Austin Peay- Good story, but should they get in? Second place OVC team. They will have to wait until Sunday to know.
12. Colgate- Lafayette win against rival Lehigh puts the Raiders in. If the Mountain Hawks win, it won’t look good.
13. Lehigh- Win and off to the playoffs. Lose and you’re done.
15. Samford- Basically an elimination game against Furman.
16. Furman- I could see them getting in if they lose, but not likely. Win and you’re in for the Paladins.
17. WCU- Beat UNC and you have a case. Other than that, hope things go crazy.
18. McNeese- No real quality wins, but would have 9 wins with a victory. Would be tough for the committee to keep them out.
19. Eastern Illinois- Hope everyone on the bubble loses. Then bribe the committee chair. Very slim chance EIU gets in. If more than 3 or 4 bubble teams win, they are toast.
20. Montana- Win against the Bobcats and they are in the playoffs.

Thats 20 teams looking to get one of maybe 8 remaining spots. Sets up a fun Saturday!

[Redbird 4th & short]

If Nicholls would have won last night they would be 9-2 not 8-3.

shoot .. my bad. could have sworn I read it right. Still would have made same point, but would have toned it down a notch.

[Redbird 4th & short]

My Current Bubble Watch, in no particular order.


1. USD- Currently on the inside of the bubble, but tough situation. SDSU is strong. Need a win or risk sweating out the selections.
2. ISUr- Simple. Its do or die this afternoon in Normal.
3. Delaware- UD has played well this year. Avoid a letdown against Nova and your probably in.
4. UNH- If they win, the committee will put them in. Good team, showed it against Elon.
5. Monmouth- Win and your in. Lose and wait. Likely to miss playoffs if they lose at KSU today.
6. Kennesaw- Same situation as Monmouth, but better chance at an at large bid should they lose.
7. NAU- Has slid down the Big Sky lately. A win against SUU would lock them in. They are close, but still on the bubble.
7. EWU- Must win against rival Portland St. Shouldn’t be an issue. Expect to see EWU in unless they have a massive letdown.
8. Sac St- Outside looking in. Don’t count them out yet. If things get wild today, they have a strong case.
9. Howard- 7-3 team from a weak conference. All they have going for them is the UNLV win. Maybe they have a shot, but I doubt they get in.
10. Duquense- Same situation as Sac St. If things get wild, they might have a case. Have to play well this week.
11. Austin Peay- Good story, but should they get in? Second place OVC team. They will have to wait until Sunday to know.
12. Colgate- Lafayette win against rival Lehigh puts the Raiders in. If the Mountain Hawks win, it won’t look good.
13. Lehigh- Win and off to the playoffs. Lose and you’re done.
15. Samford- Basically an elimination game against Furman.
16. Furman- I could see them getting in if they lose, but not likely. Win and you’re in for the Paladins.
17. WCU- Beat UNC and you have a case. Other than that, hope things go crazy.
18. McNeese- No real quality wins, but would have 9 wins with a victory. Would be tough for the committee to keep them out.
19. Eastern Illinois- Hope everyone on the bubble loses. Then bribe the committee chair. Very slim chance EIU gets in. If more than 3 or 4 bubble teams win, they are toast.
20. Montana- Win against the Bobcats and they are in the playoffs.

Thats 20 teams looking to get one of maybe 8 remaining spots. Sets up a fun Saturday!

nice recap and well reasoned. .. going to copy this to my redbird forum ... and take full credit xthumbsupx

p.s. except I don't see Howard, Austin Peay, or EIU being in bubble discussion even if they win.

[mmiller_34]

Just asking for fun and since ESPN gives them a .03% chance of winning Saturday, what if Mercer beats Alabama?

They would be 6-5 / 4-4 in the SoCon with...
* a win over FBS #1;
* a close loss that wasn't decided until the final 4 minutes with FBS #6 (Auburn);
* wins over then-ranked CIT & WCU;
* a 1 point loss (after dominating most of the game) to a highly ranked & possible seed, SoCon AQ, Wofford;
* a late-game 1 score loss to another ranked & probable Playoff Team & probable SoCon Co-Champ, Furman;
* an ugly (20-3) (Offense was kidnapped by aliens) loss to possible Playoff Team, Samford;
* and an ugly OT loss to ETSU.

Any shot at getting in the field (assuming the premise...just go with it)?

REMEMBER NOW, they would have just accomplished the greatest upset in the history of College Football. They would be the talk of the nation. Could the committee NOT include them and face the (true) National Media?

JUST FOR FUN, NOW. NO WAGERING!!

If Mercer beats BAMA the FCS season is immediately terminated. Mercer will be awarded the FCS National Championship Trophy on ESPN on Sunday during the slot that was originally intended for the Playoff Selection Show.

[katss07]

nice recap and well reasoned. .. going to copy this to my redbird forum ... and take full credit xthumbsupx

p.s. except I don't see Howard, Austin Peay, or EIU being in bubble discussion even if they win.

Haha, thanks!

I included Peay, EIU, Howard becuase they have 7 wins, which in the past has been enough. EIU has 6 right now, but by the end of the day could have 7. I don’t see any of them getting in (maybe Peay, maybe) but thought I would include them.

[ElCid]

If Mercer beats BAMA the FCS season is immediately terminated. Mercer will be awarded the FCS National Championship Trophy on ESPN on Sunday during the slot that was originally intended for the Playoff Selection Show.

The same go if we beat Clemson?

[Professor Chaos]

The same go if we beat Clemson?
Kind of. But in addition to ending the season and declaring The Citadel as national champs the history books will all be rewritten declaring the south as the winner of the Civil War.

Now what would happen if both Mercer and The Citadel won today...

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/10/tim-and-eric-mind-blown.gif

[kalm]

They'd actually be tied for 3rd in the Big Sky at 6-2. They did put together a pretty decent OOC schedule. FBS game and their Weber St game was actually an OOC game. I do agree though that Furman/Samford at 7-4 would be very close with Sac St at 7-4 so it would just be a matter of what criteria you value more when placing those teams in relation to each other. I don't think either gets in though unless there's 3 or more losses coming from the group of ISUr, NAU, UNH, Delaware, McNeese, and Montana.


Sacremento State also got beat really bad by Idaho, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona (also barely beat a bad North Dakota team)

Not things you want on your resume, so 7-4 Furman or 7-4 Samford trump Sac. St. for sure

Sac beat UND on the road with a back up QB. That does not hurt them in any way. A 7-4 Furman would probably be ahead of them but not a 6-4 Samford. One more quality win but lower SoS.

I think McNeese's DII game also hurts their chances. A one game difference in the FCS win column could be overcome by several 7-4's with way better SoS.

[katss07]

Sac beat UND on the road with a back up QB. That does not hurt them in any way. A 7-4 Furman would probably be ahead of them but not a 6-4 Samford. One more quality win but lower SoS.

I think McNeese's DII game also hurts their chances. A one game difference in the FCS win column could be overcome by several 7-4's with way better SoS.

2 win differential if they win today. I think that changes things slightly. I would put in a 9-2 McNeese team in over a 7-4 Sac St, but I see the point.

[kalm]

2 win differential if they win today. I think that changes things slightly. I would put in a 9-2 McNeese team in over a 7-4 Sac St, but I see the point.

8-2 vs 7-3 when you take out the DII and FBS games.

[ElCid]

Kind of. But in addition to ending the season and declaring The Citadel as national champs the history books will all be rewritten declaring the south as the winner of the Civil War.

Now what would happen if both Mercer and The Citadel won today...

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/10/tim-and-eric-mind-blown.gif

Time and space as we know it would cease to exist. It would simply evaporate into nothingness. If we have a good drive and score, I will take that as a positive sign. It will be a good experience for the youngsters. The Jr's and Sr's already have an SEC scalp.

[FUGameBreaker]

Sac beat UND on the road with a back up QB. That does not hurt them in any way. A 7-4 Furman would probably be ahead of them but not a 6-4 Samford. One more quality win but lower SoS.

I think McNeese's DII game also hurts their chances. A one game difference in the FCS win column could be overcome by several 7-4's with way better SoS.


Sac. St. got killed by 3 of the 5 decent teams they played (that's assuming Idaho would be decent in FCS lol), plus to many Big Sky teams ahead of them, they have no shot I am telling you guys xnodx
And strength of schedule for Furman, Samford and Sac. St. are basically exactly the same, check sagarin

[kalm]

Sac. St. got killed by 3 of the 5 decent teams they played (that's assuming Idaho would be decent in FCS lol), plus to many Big Sky teams ahead of them, they have no shot I am telling you guys xnodx
And strength of schedule for Furman, Samford and Sac. St. are basically exactly the same, check sagarin

Check Massey or look at the actual schedules. The problem is the SoCon doesn't have as many quality OOC wins so it''s best wins are against each other.

Sac's resume is very comparable to Furman and Samford, but yes they need quite a bit of help.

[JSUSoutherner]

If Mercer beats BAMA the FCS season is immediately terminated. Mercer will be awarded the FCS National Championship Trophy on ESPN on Sunday during the slot that was originally intended for the Playoff Selection Show.

I feel like I've seen this comment somewhere before... hmm... xwhistlex


The same go if we beat Clemson?

You won't. :D

[ElCid]

I feel like I've seen this comment somewhere before... hmm... xwhistlex



You won't. :D

You could have at least given a spoiler alert first. Now my day is ruined.

[ElCid]

I am just wondering who will post the first bogus "spoiler alert" post of the day.

Any takers?

[JSUSoutherner]

You could have at least given a spoiler alert first. Now my day is ruined.
Sorry.

Only reason I didn't just write off Mercer is because it's so improbable it's probably just come full circle and Mercer is actually favored.

If you ignore logic and basic reasoning it makes perfect sense. xlolx

[TheKingpin28]

You could have at least given a spoiler alert first. Now my day is ruined.

I thought it was ruined when Furman beat The Citadel? xdrunkyx

Sorry, I just had to. It was too hard not to.

[TheKingpin28]

I am just wondering who will post the first bogus "spoiler alert" post of the day.

Any takers?

I'll go with a Novembrist

[ElCid]

I thought it was ruined when Furman beat The Citadel? xdrunkyx

Sorry, I just had to. It was too hard not to.

Actually I think the boys folded up after the WCU game. In particular, the TD that was called a fumble at the goal line on video review. They seemed to just exhale at that point. Furman is good, but we were done and they let it get away from them more than their ability should have allowed. That it was Furman, makes them suck a little bit more.

[FUGameBreaker]

Check Massey or look at the actual schedules. The problem is the SoCon doesn't have as many quality OOC wins so it''s best wins are against each other.

Sac's resume is very comparable to Furman and Samford, but yes they need quite a bit of help.



Ufff I think I have just about every bubble teams full season schedule memorized at this point, or close at least lol

[TheKingpin28]

Actually I think the boys folded up after the WCU game. In particular, the TD that was called a fumble at the goal line on video review. They seemed to just exhale at that point. Furman is good, but we were done and they let it get away from them more than their ability should have allowed. That it was Furman, makes them suck a little bit more.

I went for the low blow and you didn't take the bait. It is weird to not see The Citadel in the playoff chase but hopefully next year they will be back.

[katss07]

Duquense, one of the teams on my bubble watch, needs a win and some style points to have a chance. Right now they lead Bryant 7-6 in the 1st quarter.

[TheKingpin28]

Duquense, one of the teams on my bubble watch, needs a win and some style points to have a chance. Right now they lead Bryant 7-6 in the 1st quarter.

You can't be serious about this. If so, an explanation is needed.

[aceinthehole]

Duquense, one of the teams on my bubble watch, needs a win and some style points to have a chance. Right now they lead Bryant 7-6 in the 1st quarter.

I would love to see a NEC team on the bubble, but that isn't happening this year.

Duquesne just doesn't have any quality wins to be considered. They only have 7 D-I wins right now, the best one being Saint Francis. The loss at Liberty isn't a "bad" loss, but they needed that as another quality win to even be considered.

I think if they didn't schedule a D-II team and 2 Pioneer teams, and instead had a win over an Ivy (say Penn) or a Patriot (say Bucknell), that would have looked much better on their resume.

They are certainly a very good team, just too bad they played a very weak schedule. :(

[katss07]

You can't be serious about this. If so, an explanation is needed.

I don’t know if you saw my previous list, but if things were to get wild, Duquense is a potential 8 win team. The bubble is too strong this year for an 8 win team from the NEC to get in, but I listed them as a team that has a shot. The Dukes are a good team. I made a list of 21 teams that I’m updating on here, and I will admit that Duquense making it is a very out there idea. But I had to include them. If a few bubble teams lock up their spots, I will eliminate them.

[aceinthehole]

I don’t know if you saw my previous list, but if things were to get wild, Duquense is a potential 8 win team. The bubble is too strong this year for an 8 win team from the NEC to get in, but I listed them as a team that has a shot. The Dukes are a good team. I made a list of 21 teams that I’m updating on here, and I will admit that Duquense making it is a very out there idea. But I had to include them. If a few bubble teams lock up their spots, I will eliminate them.

Duquesne is absolutely a good team - but they haven't proved they are playoff worthy with their schedule. Very disappointed they didn't challenge themselves like Saint Francis did this season.

Dukes
@ South Dakota State (MVFC) - Very good reach game
@ Valpo (Pioneer) - Historically bad non-scholly team; equiv of a D-III game
@ Dayton (Pioneer) - Decent road game vs. regular AQ contender
vs. West Virginia Wesleyan (D-II) - Can't add a D-II with 2 Pioneer game
@ Liberty (Big South) - Quality road game vs. transitioning FBS team

Only 2 of the 5 games (SDSU and Liberty) were resume builders and they didn't win either.

Frankies
vs. Lock Haven (D-II) - Standard home game vs regional PSAC team
vs. Towson (CAA) - Rare home game vs CAA opponent
@ Liberty (Big South) - Quality road game vs. transitioning FBS team
@ Presbyterian (Big South) - Road game vs. full scholly team
@ Eastern Kentucky (OVC) - Road game vs. full scholly team

Great results - crushed D-II opponent, 2-point loss to CAA team, win at Liberty. Disappointing loss to Presby; EKU results to come

[katss07]

Games that could impact the bubble.
Lehigh 14-7 Lafayette 1Q
Bryant 16-14 Duquense Half
Hampton 7-0 Howard 1Q
Scoreless in ISUr-NDSU

[grizband]

Games that could impact the bubble.
Lehigh 14-7 Lafayette 1Q
Bryant 16-14 Duquense Half
Hampton 7-0 Howard 1Q
Scoreless in ISUr-NDSUDoes the Patriot really have a chance at an at large?

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[NDSUtk]

Does the Patriot really have a chance at an at large?

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

No way in hell.

[katss07]

Does the Patriot really have a chance at an at large?

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

No, but I included the Lehigh game because it has serious playoff implications.

[Reign of Terrier]

ISU-r tied at 0 with NDSU in a snow storm.


Would be crazy if they win this one. It would throw the playoff picture out of whack.

Also Delaware, New Hampshire and Stony Brook are losing.

Chaos.

[Reign of Terrier]

If the scores of current game stands and Furman wins it's not crazy to say they'd be competing for a seed I think...hard to say.

[katss07]

If the scores of current game stands and Furman wins it's not crazy to say they'd be competing for a seed I think...hard to say.

Hell no.

Statement opening drive there by the Monmouth offense.

[TheKingpin28]

If the scores of current game stands and Furman wins it's not crazy to say they'd be competing for a seed I think...hard to say.

If Furman is even competing for a seed, that means SDSU, SUU, SHSU, SBU, WIU, Delaware, UNI, and Samford all lost and in that case, we have some serious issues and need to go back to a 16 team field.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think we've already had the discussion about the difficulty of 3 teams having a seed given the rules revolving around rematches between conferences and seeds.

Delaware is down 14, Stony Brook is down 12. They can beat Samford. SUU hasn't played yet. SHSU is already a seed, as is SDSU.

so it would come down to the aforementioned politics revolving around UNI, WIU and Furman

It's not crazy. Unlikely maybe, but not crazy.

[katss07]

Any chance that Duquense, Howard or ISUr had a basically gone.

Updated Bubble
USD
Delaware
UNH
Monmouth
Kennesaw
NAU
EWU
Sac St
Austin Peay
Samford
Furman
WCU
McNeese
Eastern Illinois
Montana

[BisonFan02]

There is going to be a PILE of incredibly weak 7-4 teams.....

[TheKingpin28]

There is going to be a PILE of incredibly weak 7-4 teams.....

They say it does not, but whoever draws the best crowds, I feel like will get into the playoffs.

[katss07]

The more bubble teams that fall, the better the chances of Sac St, Austin Peay, WCU get.

[kdinva]

With Delaware and UNH both losing, McNeese is solidly in with a win......

[katss07]

Yep. I expect the Cowboys to get in. Need to take care of business against Lamar though. Cardinals are down this year.

[gofurman]

They'd actually be tied for 3rd in the Big Sky at 6-2. They did put together a pretty decent OOC schedule. FBS game and their Weber St game was actually an OOC game. I do agree though that Furman/Samford at 7-4 would be very close with Sac St at 7-4 so it would just be a matter of what criteria you value more when placing those teams in relation to each other. I don't think either gets in though unless there's 3 or more losses coming from the group of ISUr, NAU, UNH, Delaware, McNeese, and Montana.\

So since UD, UNH and ISU all lost would you agree fu is in now? just askin' based on your statement

[katss07]

My Current Bubble Teams

Bubble
1. USD- If they take care of SDSU, they should be a lock.
2. NAU- Currently getting blown out by SUU, the Lumberjacks are pushing their luck. Their fate may be in the hands of the committee. The loss against Montana hurts.
3. EWU- Yet to start. Win and they are a lock.
4. Sac St- Hornets are currently all over UCDavis. If things hold they could be in, especially with how crazy today has been.
5. Samford- Close game against Furman. Win and they are probably in. Lose and you are done.
6. Furman- Lose and the committee gets to choose. Win and in.
7. McNeese- Win against Lamar and you are in. Can’t have a let down. With the bubble losing so much power, they could be a lock with a win.
8. Montana- The Grizzlies need a little help, but money and ticket sales help. The bubble has lost some steam, so they have a decent case.

Doubtful
1. Delaware- Hens lost. Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong. Slim chance they get in.
2. UNH- Could still get in, but loss to Holy Cross looks bad. Also, bad loss to UAlbany. Tough team to put in.
3. Monmouth- Maybe the committee cuts them some slack, but I cannot see them getting in.
4. Austin Peay- With the bubble weakening, maybe EIU vs APSU has become a playoff game? Who knows, the winner would be second in the OVC.
5. EIU- 6-4 right now. Highly doubtful, but other teams are losing. Their hopes are on life support.

The bubble has lost some serious luster. As we go on tonight, I could see a few 7-4 teams making a strong case.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Furman loses.

So many 7-3 teams lost today!

[FargoBison]

My thoughts....

Seeds...
1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. JSU
4. UCA
5. SHSU
6. SDSU
7. Wofford
8. SUU(If they win)


Autobid(10):
Big Sky: SUU(crushing NAU at the moment)
Big South: Kennesaw State
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA



At-Large Locks(7)
Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: Elon, Stony Brook
MVFC: WIU, SDSU
SLC: SHSU
SoCon: Samford


In with a win(3)
Northern Iowa
McNeese State
NAU(currently getting crushed)


Bubbling(10)
Austin Peay 7-4/EIU 6-4
Furman 7-4
South Dakota 7-4
Delaware 7-4
UNH 7-4
EWU 6-4
Sac State 6-4
Monmouth 9-2
Nicholls State 8-3
Montana 7-4


13 teams fighting for 7 spots.

[ST_Lawson]

Damn you NAU, why did you have to do so badly against SUU. Might have had a shot at a seed. Now we'll be like the 9th ranked team going on the road to play essentially #23 or something.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[katss07]

My thoughts....

Seeds...
1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. JSU
4. UCA
5. SHSU
6. SDSU
7. Wofford
8. SUU(If they win)


Autobid(10):
Big Sky: SUU(crushing NAU at the moment)
Big South: Kennesaw State
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA



At-Large Locks(7)
Big Sky: Weber State
CAA: Elon, Stony Brook
MVFC: WIU, SDSU
SLC: SHSU
SoCon: Samford


In with a win(3)
Northern Iowa
McNeese State
NAU(currently getting crushed)


Bubbling(10)
Austin Peay 7-4/EIU 6-4
Furman 7-4
South Dakota 7-4
Delaware 7-4
UNH 7-4
EWU 6-4
Sac State 6-4
Monmouth 9-2
Nicholls State 8-3
Montana 7-4


13 teams fighting for 7 spots.

Couple of things.

First, SHSU should be 6 and 5 should be SDSU. That avoids a QF rematch. Secondly Samford isn’t a lock. They should be in, but I would not call them a lock yet. Third, Nicholls is out of the conversation I think. Thursdays loss killed them.

[FargoBison]

Couple of things.

First, SHSU should be 6 and 5 should be SDSU. That avoids a QF rematch. Secondly Samford isn’t a lock. They should be in, but I would not call them a lock yet. Third, Nicholls is out of the conversation I think. Thursdays loss killed them.

I guess QF rematches can happen now based on a new interview Haley had with the chairman of the committee. One of our administrators also confirmed that is correct.

The SoCon is getting a second team in and Samford is in with wins over Wofford and Furman..plus a good Kennesaw team. Furman I am not so sure about.

Nicholls is kind of hanging around for now but they are clinging to the bubble. I'll probably toss out NAU.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Just draw teams out of the hat. Overall, the majority of the field is nothing more than prop fodder for the 3-5 teams that have a legit chance at title. How I pine for a 1-16 seeded championship. Eliminate the fluff and get this thing over 4 rounds...

[93henfan]

Just draw teams out of the hat. Overall, the majority of the field is nothing more than prop fodder for the 3-5 teams that have a legit chance at title. How I pine for a 1-16 seeded championship. Eliminate the fluff and get this thin over 4 rounds...

Amen, and take the autobid away from bad conferences like the Patriot, AMIRITE?

[FargoBison]

It really comes down to these 9 teams....5 will get in

Austin Peay 7-4/EIU 6-4
Furman 7-4
South Dakota 7-4
Delaware 7-4
UNH 7-4
EWU 6-4
Sac State 6-4
Monmouth 9-2
Montana 7-4

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Amen, and take the autobid away from bad conferences like the Patriot, AMIRITE?

Amazingly the last FCS program that beat JMU, in the playoffs none-the-less, resides in the Patriot League. It's a conference with a serious personality disorder....

[katss07]

I guess QF rematches can happen now based on a new interview Haley had with the chairman of the committee. One of our administrators also confirmed that is correct.

The SoCon is getting a second team in and Samford is in with wins over Wofford and Furman..plus a good Kennesaw team. Furman I am not so sure about.

Nicholls is kind of hanging around for now but they are clinging to the bubble. I'll probably toss out NAU.

I would eliminate Nicholls before NAU. NAU is hanging onto the bubble, but probably won’t get in. Your right about the SoCon, Samford should be in.

[Reign of Terrier]

It really comes down to these 9 teams....5 will get in

Austin Peay 7-4/EIU 6-4
Furman 7-4
South Dakota 7-4
Delaware 7-4
UNH 7-4
EWU 6-4
Sac State 6-4
Monmouth 9-2
Montana 7-4

Can someone draw a compare and contrast for these teams?

[katss07]

It really comes down to these 9 teams....5 will get in

Austin Peay 7-4/EIU 6-4
Furman 7-4
South Dakota 7-4
Delaware 7-4
UNH 7-4
EWU 6-4
Sac State 6-4
Monmouth 9-2
Montana 7-4

I tend to agree. It comes down to these 10 teams. The more I think about it, EIU/APSU is a playoff game.

All of these 10 teams are deserving of consideration. Any talk about another team is just fluff. Committee has a tough job ahead. Picking 5 of these 10 teams (9 after Austin Peay-Eastern ends) is going to be tough.

[93henfan]

I tend to agree. It comes down to these 10 teams. The more I think about it, EIU/APSU is a playoff game.

All of these 10 teams are deserving of consideration. Any talk about another team is just fluff. Committee has a tough job ahead. Picking 5 of these 10 teams (9 after Austin Peay-Eastern ends) is going to be tough.

I hope they choose by average home attendance!

[FargoBison]

I think EWU(beat both of the other big sky bubble teams) is in with a win and things look alright for USD....things get murky after that.

USD:
Quality wins: WIU and Bowling Green(FBS)
losses: ISUR, SDSU, UNI, NDSU

Furman:
Quality wins: WCU?
Losses: Elon, Wofford, NC State, Samford

Delaware:
Quality wins: Stony Brook
Losses: VA Tech, JMU, Towson, Nova

UNH:
Wins: Elon, GSU(FBS)
Losses: Holy Cross, JMU, Stony Brook, Albany

EWU:
Quality Wins: Montana, Sac State
Losses: SUU, NDSU, Texas Tech, Weber State

Montana:
Quality Wins: NAU?
Losses: EWU, Montana State, Weber State, Washington

Sac State:
Quality wins: SUU
Losses: Idaho, Weber State, EWU, NAU

Monmouth:
Quality wins:
Losses: Kennesaw State, Albany

EIU:
Quality wins:
Losses: NIU, ISUR, JSU, UT Martin

APSU
Quality wins:
Losses: Cincy, Miami(Oh), UCF, JSU

Edit: I'll toss in Nicholls and NAU...

Nicholls:
Quality wins: McNeese
Losses: Texas A&M, SLU, SHSU

NAU
Quality wins: Sac State
Losses: Montana, WIU, Arizona, SUU

[93henfan]

FargoBison, great analysis. Awesome work. Really appreciate it!

[gofurman]

It really comes down to these 9 teams....5 will get in

Austin Peay 7-4/EIU 6-4
Furman 7-4
South Dakota 7-4
Delaware 7-4
UNH 7-4
EWU 6-4
Sac State 6-4
Monmouth 9-2
Montana 7-4

Today is NOT everything.. that being said look at the difference in how teams performed:

UNH lost to a 4-7 Albany team. - UNH NEVER SCORED.. shut out 15-0. That ain't good. Not even a FG? ... UD lost.. 28-7 to a losing record (5-6) Villanova. ... ISU lost t NDSU - no shame at all there but ISU is now 6-5. .... Montana lost by only 8 pts but to a losing record (5-6) Montana State. Nicholls lost.. Most agree they are done. Monmouth lost but it was by 30 vs KSU.. maybe the margin keeps em out ? Two from Big South? Western Car lost to UNC but too many losses now. These are all bubble teams
NAU is getting ABSOLUTELY THUMPED 48-13 in 4th (granted by SUU who is good ) but still

USD lost by only 3 to SDSU - 'strong showing in a loss.
fu lost by only 6 to 8-3 Samford AT Samford- 'strong showing in a loss..
I would the bloodbath in the bubble helps Furman and I objectively think those are the best two losses among the group. Some teams got killed - hello NAU ! ... and MANY lost to sub .500 teams - UNH, UD, Montana etc.

Those are the only of the bubble teams that kept it close and respectabl'

would you agree?

[93henfan]

Today is NOT everything.. that being said look at the difference in how teams performed:

UNH lost to a 4-7 Albany team. - UNH NEVER SCORED.. shut out 15-0. That ain't good. Not even a FG? ... UD lost.. 28-7 to a losing record (5-6) Villanova. ... ISU lost t NDSU - no shame at all there but ISU is now 6-5. .... Montana lost by only 8 pts but to a losing record (5-6) Montana State. Nicholls lost.. Most agree they are done. Monmouth lost but it was by 30 vs KSU.. maybe the margin keeps em out ? Two from Big South? Western Car lost to UNC but too many losses now. These are all bubble teams
NAU is getting ABSOLUTELY THUMPED 48-13 in 4th (granted by SUU who is good ) but still

USD lost by only 3 to SDSU - 'strong showing in a loss.
fu lost by only 6 to 8-3 Samford AT Samford- 'strong showing in a loss..
I would the bloodbath in the bubble helps Furman and I objectively think those are the best two losses among the group. Some teams got killed - hello NAU ! ... and MANY lost to sub .500 teams - UNH, UD, Montana etc.

Those are the only of the bubble teams that kept it close and respectabl'

would you agree?

What are the average home attendances? xsmiley_wix

NCAA likes cash, AMIRITE? Nudge, nudge. Know what I mean?

[FargoBison]

I added Nicholls and NAU as well just for comparison sake.

[gofurman]

I think EWU(beat both of the other big sky bubble teams) is in with a win and things look alright for USD....things get murky after that.

USD:
Quality wins: WIU and Bowling Green(FBS)
losses: ISUR, SDSU, UNI, NDSU

Furman:
Quality wins: WCU?
Losses: Elon, Wofford, NC State, Samford

Delaware:
Quality wins: Stony Brook
Losses: VA Tech, JMU, Towson, Nova

UNH:
Wins: Elon, GSU(FBS)
Losses: Holy Cross, JMU, Stony Brook, Albany

EWU:
Quality Wins: Montana, Sac State
Losses: SUU, NDSU, Texas Tech, Weber State

Montana:
Quality Wins: NAU?
Losses: EWU, Montana State, Weber State, Washington

Sac State:
Quality wins: SUU
Losses: Idaho, Weber State, EWU, NAU

Monmouth:
Quality wins:
Losses: Kennesaw State, Albany

EIU:
Quality wins:
Losses: NIU, ISUR, JSU, UT Martin

APSU
Quality wins:
Losses: Cincy, Miami(Oh), UCF, JSU

Edit: I'll toss in Nicholls and NAU...

Nicholls:
Quality wins: McNeese
Losses: Texas A&M, SLU, SHSU

NAU
Quality wins: Sac State
Losses: Montana, WIU, Arizona, SUU

Western Carolina (on the road) is a quality win for Furman. Top 25 most of the year (AGS poll too) and Western beat Samford.. only SoCon team to do that.



Also, Georgia Southern is not a quality win for UNH. GSU literally can't win one game lol

[Schism55]

Today is NOT everything.. that being said look at the difference in how teams performed:

UNH lost to a 4-7 Albany team. - UNH NEVER SCORED.. shut out 15-0. That ain't good. Not even a FG? ... UD lost.. 28-7 to a losing record (5-6) Villanova. ... ISU lost t NDSU - no shame at all there but ISU is now 6-5. .... Montana lost by only 8 pts but to a losing record (5-6) Montana State. Nicholls lost.. Most agree they are done. Monmouth lost but it was by 30 vs KSU.. maybe the margin keeps em out ? Two from Big South? Western Car lost to UNC but too many losses now. These are all bubble teams
NAU is getting ABSOLUTELY THUMPED 48-13 in 4th (granted by SUU who is good ) but still

USD lost by only 3 to SDSU - 'strong showing in a loss.
fu lost by only 6 to 8-3 Samford AT Samford- 'strong showing in a loss..
I would the bloodbath in the bubble helps Furman and I objectively think those are the best two losses among the group. Some teams got killed - hello NAU ! ... and MANY lost to sub .500 teams - UNH, UD, Montana etc.

Those are the only of the bubble teams that kept it close and respectabl'

would you agree?
Furman has ZERO good wins. It is not getting in.

[woffordgrad94]

Just an opinion...no team with 5 losses should ever be put in the playoffs under amy circumstances. I don’t care who they lost to. I’m sure some will disagree with this but it’s my opinion.

[gofurman]

Furman has ZERO good wins. It is not getting in.

Furman may not get in - who knows (heck, the committee chair went to both of our RIVAL schools.. hmm , Citadel is our oldest rival and where he got his degree, and now he is AD at Wofford a new rival)... but Western Carolina AT Western (to 25 ranked in AGS much of year) IS a good win. That is a FACT

That's a quality win ON THE ROAD at their homecoming ! At a top 25 team. Even now they are getting votes.. Anyone who watched them knows they are good. They will finish 7-5 w an odd schedule I admit.. ending w UNC etc. But that's a GOOD win. We ran all over them. Western beat Samford etc etc. Those that watch SoCon football know that's a good win.

[FargoBison]

Committee chair just said via twitter they have 8 at large spots locked up...so six are up in the air.

Sent from my SM-G955U1 using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

Here's an even more nuanced aggregation of the field; using the information Fargobison provided, I differentiated the losses based upon quality. A "meh" loss is basically a loss to a mid-tier team which is not necessarily terrible but not necessarily bad either. I'll provide my opinion on who deserves what in another post as this one is long enough IMO

USD:
Quality wins: WIU and Bowling Green(FBS)
Quality losses: SDSU, UNI, NDSU
Meh: ISUR
Bad losses: none

Furman:
Quality wins: WCU?
Quality Losses: Elon, Wofford, NC State, Samford
meh/bad losses: none

Delaware:
Quality wins: Stony Brook
Quality Losses: VA Tech, JMU,
Meh losses: Nova
Bad losses: Towson

UNH:
Wins: Elon, GSU(FBS)
Bad Losses: Holy Cross, Albany
Quality loses: JMU, Stony Brook

EWU:
Quality Wins: Montana, Sac State
Quality Losses: SUU, NDSU, Texas Tech, Weber State
Meh/bad losses: none

Montana:
Quality Wins: NAU?
Quality Losses: EWU, Weber State, Washington
Meh losses/Bad losses: montana state

Sac State:
Quality wins: SUU
Quality Losses: Idaho, Weber State, EWU, NAU
Meh/bad losses: none

Monmouth:
Quality wins:
Quality Losses: Kennesaw State,
Bad losses: Albany

EIU:
Quality wins:
Quality Losses: NIU, JSU,
Meh losses: ISUR, UT Martin

APSU
Quality wins:
Quality Losses: Cincy, Miami(Oh), UCF, JSU
bad losses: none

Nicholls:
Quality wins: McNeese
Losses: Texas A&M,
bad losses: SLU, SHSU (because of the margin)

NAU
Quality wins: Sac State
quality Losses: Montana, WIU, Arizona,
bad losses:SUU (because of the margin)

[dungeonjoe]

Western Carolina (on the road) is a quality win for Furman. Top 25 most of the year (AGS poll too) and Western beat Samford.. only SoCon team to do that.



Also, Georgia Southern is not a quality win for UNH. GSU literally can't win one game lol
Chatty and Western beat Samford

[iBOsbu]

FCS committee chair Richard Johnson just said that 18 teams already selected including AQ and 6 left. Now they will select those last 6 from a pool of already chosen 10 teams.

[FUGameBreaker]

Furman has ZERO good wins. It is not getting in.



Hahaha, yeah sure bud

[Reign of Terrier]

South Dakota, Furman, Eastern Washington (as of right now), Sacramento State, and Austin Peay all have no bad losses.

Having said that, Furman and AP don't really have any quality wins

[gofurman]

Fargo, if you don't mind - I might take your great analysis one level more: BAD LOSSES. (So not getting into 'quality losses' but either a loss to a .500 team or someone got blown out by 21 or more (like NAU today)

Please help me - I only know some and am NOT going to count losses at FBS in that scale as the committee said they don't

USD:
Quality wins: WIU and Bowling Green(FBS)
losses: ISUR, SDSU, UNI, NDSU

Furman:
Quality wins: WCU?
Losses: Elon, Wofford, NC State, Samford

Delaware:
Quality wins: Stony Brook
Losses: VA Tech, JMU, Towson, o
Bad losses: lost to a 5-6 Nova team by score of 7-28

UNH:
Wins: Elon, GSU(FBS)
Losses: Holy Cross, JMU, Stony Brook,
Bad Losses" Lost to a 4-7 Albany team 15-0. Shut out

EWU:
Quality Wins: Montana, Sac State
Losses: SUU, NDSU, Texas Tech, Weber State

Montana:
Quality Wins: NAU?
Losses: EWU, Weber State, Washington
Bad Losses" - lost to a 5-6 Montana State team

Sac State:
Quality wins: SUU
Losses: Idaho, Weber State, EWU, NAU

Monmouth:
Quality wins:
Losses: Kennesaw State, Albany

EIU:
Quality wins:
Losses: NIU, ISUR, JSU, UT Martin

APSU
Quality wins:
Losses: Cincy, Miami(Oh), UCF, JSU

Edit: I'll toss in Nicholls and NAU...

Nicholls:
Quality wins: McNeese
Losses: Texas A&M, SLU, SHSU

NAU
Quality wins: Sac State
Losses: Montana, WIU, Arizona,
Bad Losses" - lost to Southern Utah 48-20. Great SU team, just a total blowout

[Schism55]

Hahaha, yeah sure bud
Furmans wins are:
Colgate
ETSU
Chatt
VMI
Mercer
WCU
Citadel
NONE of those teams even sniffed the playoffs.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'd argue Western sniffed the playoffs but ultimately blew it last week

[youwouldno]

Furmans wins are:
Colgate
ETSU
Chatt
VMI
Mercer
WCU
Citadel
NONE of those teams even sniffed the playoffs.

Colgate narrowly missed the playoffs due to 3 point loss to Lehigh and the latter winning some other close games.

WCU was a lock if they hadn't lost by 2 to Mercer or in OT to Wofford.

Both with 7 D-I wins. Neither great, but factually both "sniffed" the playoffs.

[gofurman]

Furmans wins are:
Colgate
ETSU
Chatt
VMI
Mercer
WCU
Citadel
NONE of those teams even sniffed the playoffs.

Actually, Colgate was in if Lafayette beat Lehigh (a seven point win... that's a sniff. I don't think Colgate is good at all. Just saying the definition of sniff is odd. And Western was one win from playoffs / so that's one bounce of the ball and they coulda been in - pretty much everyone here agreed on that. I'd say that's "sniffing" the playoffs. To not "sniff" playoffs means not even close.

No need to be such an a*s man. FU loved our time in Fargo a few years ago. People said their snot froze ! Most of your fans were so gracious! No need to be such a pain man

[gofurman]

I'd argue Western sniffed the playoffs but ultimately blew it last week

EXACTLY MY POINT. to say western or Colgate didn't SNIFF the playoffs is an odd definition of "SNIFF". Colgate is in too (and Colgate is not a good team but the point here was playoffs) - if Lafayette beats Lehigh.. a v close 38-31 game.

[rocket]

Division one wins Streak record vs top 25 records vs teams with winning records place in conference FBS wins

Austin Peay 8-4 8 W6 (8/9) 0-1 2-1 2nd 0
Furman 7-4 7 L1 7/8 0-3 1-3 3rd 0
South Dakota 7-4 7 L3 (L3/4) 1-3 2-4 4th 1
Delaware 7-4 7 L1 (2/2) 1-1 2-1 4th 0
UNH 7-4 7 L1 (2/2) 2-1 2-2 5th 1
EWU 7-4 7 W2 (2/2) 1-3 2-3 T 3RD 0 (H2h w VS Montana/SAC )
Sac State 7-4 7 W3 (5/6) 1-3 2-3 t 3RD 0 H2H w nau L vs EWU
Monmouth 9-2 9 L1 (9/10) 0-1 2-1 2nd 0
Montana 7-4 7 L1 (2/2) 0-2 1-2 t 3rd 0 (L vs EWU)
Nicholls 8-3 8 L1 (7/8) 1-1 2-2 (PV and M .500) 4th 0
NAU 7 L1 (2/2) 0-3 2-3 t-3rd 0 (L vs Montana W vs Sac)


Assuming wins for APSU/ SWU/ Sac state. I dont think EIU gets in. Nicholls is for sure in the running. Also should be noted that NAU, and Monmouth both got destroyed and that Montana is on like they're fouth QB but has truckloads of money.

[jmuwishyouhadadukedog]

Here is what I think the committee will do with seeds, not necessarily what I think they SHOULD do.

1. JMU (11-0) CAA
2. Jax State (10-1) OVC
3. NDSU (10-1) MVFC
4. Central Arkansas (10-1) Southland
5. Sam Houston (10-1) Southland
6. SDSU (9-2) MVFC
7. Wofford (9-2) Southern
8. Southern Utah (9-2) Big Sky

Personally, I'd swap Jax State and NDSU with each other and SHSU and SDSU with each other but I put what I think the committee will do. The only real big surprise I could see is swapping Southern Utah with Stony Brook though I don't think it will happen.

Remaining playoff field:

Autobids:

CCSU (8-3) NEC
Kennesaw State (10-1) Big South
Lehigh (5-6) Patriot
San Diego (9-2) Pioneer

At larges:

Stony Brook (9-2)- CAA
Weber State (9-2)- Big Sky
Western Illinois (8-3) MVFC
Samford (8-3)- Southern
Northern Iowa (7-4) MVFC
South Dakota (7-4) MVFC
McNeese State assuming (9-3) Southland
Austin Peay assuming (8-4) OVC
Nicholls (8-3) (Southland)
Eastern Washington assuming they will be 7-4 Big Sky
New Hampshire (7-4) CAA
Monmouth (9-2) Big South( I don't agree they are one of the top 24 teams in the country, but if the past is any indication, the committee will have a hard time saying no to a 9-2 vs 7-4 teams)

Next 5 out:

Delaware 7-4 CAA
NAU (7-4) Big Sky
Montana (7-4) Big Sky
Furman (7-4) Southern
Sacramento State (7-4) Big Sky

I've probably forgotten someone but hey, I'm am amateur.
In my hypothetical scenario:

MVFC-5
CAA-4
Big Sky-3
Southland-3
Southern-2
Big South-2
OVC-2
Patriot-1
Pioneer-1
NEC-1

[Professor Chaos]

Here is what I think the committee will do with seeds, not necessarily what I think they SHOULD do.

1. JMU (11-0) CAA
2. Jax State (10-1) OVC
3. NDSU (10-1) MVFC
4. Central Arkansas (10-1) Southland
5. Sam Houston (10-1) Southland
6. SDSU (9-2) MVFC
7. Wofford (9-2) Southern
8. Southern Utah (9-2) Big Sky

Personally, I'd swap Jax State and NDSU with each other and SHSU and SDSU with each other but I put what I think the committee will do. The only real big surprise I could see is swapping Southern Utah with Stony Brook though I don't think it will happen.

Remaining playoff field:

Autobids:

CCSU (8-3) NEC
Kennesaw State (10-1) Big South
Lehigh (5-6) Patriot
San Diego (9-2) Pioneer

At larges:

Stony Brook (9-2)- CAA
Western Illinois (8-3) MVFC
Samford (8-3)- Southern
Northern Iowa (7-4) MVFC
South Dakota (7-4) MVFC
McNeese State assuming (9-3) Southland
Austin Peay assuming (8-4) OVC
Nicholls (8-3) (Southland)
Eastern Washington assuming they will be 7-4 Big Sky
New Hampshire (7-4) CAA
Sacramento State (7-4) Big Sky
Furman (7-4) Southern
Monmouth (9-2) Big South( I don't agree they are one of the top 24 teams in the country, but if the past is any indication, the committee will have a hard time saying no to a 9-2 vs 7-4 teams)

Next 3 out:

Delaware 7-4 CAA
NAU (7-4) Big Sky
Montana (7-4) Big Sky

I've probably forgotten someone but hey, I'm am amateur.
In my hypothetical scenario:

MVFC-5
CAA-4
Big Sky-3
Southern-3
Southland-3
Big South-2
OVC-2
Patriot-1
Pioneer-1
NEC-1
This seems like a pretty good appraisal to me. However, I think NAU makes it in over Sac St. Head-to-head win for NAU and identical 7-4 (6-2) records in the Big Sky.

I also think Delaware and Monmouth are very close... not sure you can be right/wrong either way but I'd probably put Delaware in before Monmouth.

EDIT: I think you only have 13 at larges also so there should be one more.

[rocket]

If I were to put 5 of the 11 in and 6 out I'd go in order.

In
- UNH- FBS win/ 2 top 25 wins.
- EWU Tough OOC h2h with both Montana and SAC
- APSU- Just on the win streak
- Nicholls 8 d1 wins, and comparable wins vs teams with winning records with the rest of the field. . Being 4th in the SLC might hurt.
- Montana Griz got that coin and the NCAA loves them some money.

OUT
Sac State Can see them getting in if Montanas money doesnt get in the way.
Delaware - avoided or lost to basically every good CAA team.
Furman- if your case is close losses against good teams, you don't have much case at all. Monmouth- Cant get mega destroyed in the last game of the season
NAU- can't get mega destroyed to end the season
USD- Cant lose four in a row to end the season.

[93henfan]

...but I'd probably put Delaware in before Monmouth.

https://i.imgur.com/Fh8eXnl.gif

[jmuwishyouhadadukedog]

This seems like a pretty good appraisal to me. However, I think NAU makes it in over Sac St. Head-to-head win for NAU and identical 7-4 (6-2) records in the Big Sky.

I also think Delaware and Monmouth are very close... not sure you can be right/wrong either way but I'd probably put Delaware in before Monmouth.

EDIT: I think you only have 13 at larges also so there should be one more.

Just noticed that, fixed it by dropping Furman to next 4 out.

Woops. I was right, I also forgot about Weber St. Perhaps on account of them beating us in basketball today.

[FargoBison]

To seed JSU over NDSU you pretty much need to entirely ignore SOS and quality wins....

NDSU
Quality Loss: @SDSU
Quality Wins: USD, WIU, UNI, @EWU

JSU
Quality Loss: @GT
Quality Win: @APSU

JSU should actually be #4 and UCA #3

UCA:
Quality Loss: K-State
Quality Win: SHSU, McNeese

[aceinthehole]

Here is my FCS "Selection Sunday" projections:

Automatic Qualifiers (alphabetical)

1. Central Arkansas (Southland)
2. Central Connecticut State (NEC)
3. Jacksonville State (OVC)
4. James Madison (CAA)
5. Kennesaw State (Big South)
6. Lehigh (Patriot)
7. North Dakota State (MVFC)
8. San Diego (Pioneer)
9. Wofford (SoCon)
10. Southern Utah (Big Sky)

At-Large (by conference)

1. Weber State (9-2; 7-1 Big Sky)
2. Northern Arizona (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
3. Eastern Washington (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
4. Stony Brook (9-2; 7-1 CAA)
5. Elon (8-3; 6-2 CAA)
6. New Hampshire (7-4; 5-3 CAA)
7. Delaware (7-4; 5-3 CAA)
8. South Dakota State (9-2; 6-2 MVFC)
9. Western Illinois (8-3; 5-3 MVFC)
10. Northern Iowa (7-4; 6-2 MVFC)
11. Samford (8-3; 6-2 SoCon)
12. Furman (7-4; 6-2 SoCon)
13. Sam Houston State (10-1; 8-1 Southland)
14. McNesese State (9-2; 7-2 Southland)

Last 4 in: McNeese, Delaware, EWU, and UNH

Bubble Burst (alphabetical)

· Monmouth (9-2; 4-1 Big South)
· Montana (7-4; 5-3 Big Sky)
· Nicholls State (8-3; 7-2 Southland)
· Sacramento State (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
· South Dakota (7-4; 4-4 MVFC)
· Western Carolina (7-5; 5-3 SoCon)

[jmuwishyouhadadukedog]

https://i.imgur.com/Fh8eXnl.gif

I think Delaware is better than Monmouth and honestly of the teams we played this year, with perhaps the exception of Richmond, I felt the least at ease during the Delaware game. I just know the committee has lusted over 9-2 teams in the past.

[Reign of Terrier]

Here is my FCS "Selection Sunday" projections:

Automatic Qualifiers (alphabetical)

1. Central Arkansas (Southland)
2. Central Connecticut State (NEC)
3. Jacksonville State (OVC)
4. James Madison (CAA)
5. Kennesaw State (Big South)
6. Lehigh (Patriot)
7. North Dakota State (MVFC)
8. San Diego (Pioneer)
9. Wofford (SoCon)
10. Southern Utah (Big Sky)

At-Large (by conference)

1. Weber State (9-2; 7-1 Big Sky)
2. Northern Arizona (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
3. Eastern Washington (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
4. Stony Brook (9-2; 7-1 CAA)
5. Elon (8-3; 6-2 CAA)
6. New Hampshire (8-3; 5-3 CAA)
7. South Dakota State (9-2; 6-2 MVFC)
8. Western Illinois (8-3; 5-3 MVFC)
9. Northern Iowa (7-4; 6-2 MVFC)
10. Samford (8-3; 6-2 SoCon)
11. Furman (7-4; 6-2 SoCon)
12. Sam Houston State (10-1; 8-1 Southland)

Last 4 in: EWU, UNH, Furman, and NAU

First 4 Out (alphabetical)

· Delaware (7-4; 5-3 CAA)
· McNesese State (8-3; 7-2 Southland)
· Nicholls State (8-3; 7-2 Southland)
· South Dakota (7-4; 4-4 MVFC)

Next 4 Out (alphabetical)

· Monmouth (9-2; 4-1 Big South)
· Montana (7-4; 5-3 Big Sky)
· Sacramento State (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
· Western Carolina (7-5; 5-3 SoCon)

I think you're missing 2 teams.

24 teams in the field, not 22

[Professor Chaos]

Here's what I got.

Autos (10):
JMU
NDSU
JSU
UCA
Wofford
SUU
Kennesaw St
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh


At large locks (8):
SDSU
SHSU
SBU
Weber St
WIU
Elon
UNI
Samford


That leaves 6 spots for these 13 bubble teams (by my count):
McNeese (as long as they beat Lamar)
USD
Furman
EWU
NAU
Delaware
UNH
Monmouth
Montana
Sac St
WCU
Nicholls
Austin Peay


I'd say the last 6 are:
McNeese
USD
Furman
EWU
NAU
UNH

[youwouldno]

UNH has only 1 quality win, unless I'm missing something or you include winless GSU, which I'd be shocked if the committee was really impressed with.

[ElCid]

Here's what I got.

Autos (10):
JMU
NDSU
JSU
UCA
Wofford
SUU
Kennesaw St
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh


At large locks (8):
SDSU
SHSU
SBU
Weber St
WIU
Elon
UNI
Samford


That leaves 6 spots for these 13 bubble teams (by my count):
McNeese (as long as they beat Lamar)
USD
Furman
EWU
NAU
Delaware
UNH
Monmouth
Montana
Sac St
WCU
Nicholls
Austin Peay


I'd say the last 6 are:
McNeese
USD
Furman
EWU
NAU
UNH


I think that is pretty close except I think no NH or NAU, but Montana instead. Ah, its a crap shoot at this point. Heck of a day.

[jmuwishyouhadadukedog]

UNH has only 1 quality win, unless I'm missing something or you include winless GSU, which I'd be shocked if the committee was really impressed with.

While I don't disagree, UNH has historically been given the benefit of the doubt. In 2016, 2015, 2013 they got in at 7-4.

[FUGameBreaker]

Furmans wins are:
Colgate
ETSU
Chatt
VMI
Mercer
WCU
Citadel
NONE of those teams even sniffed the playoffs.


My point being sure bud on Furman making the playoffs, they will be in my friend

[aceinthehole]

I think you're missing 2 teams.

24 teams in the field, not 22

Oops! I'll have to look at that again :(

[ElCid]

While I don't disagree, UNH has historically been given the benefit of the doubt. In 2016, 2015, 2013 they got in at 7-4.

Yeah, but they didn't have as many 7-4 brothers to deal with. It's a regular gaggle this year.

[youwouldno]

While I don't disagree, UNH has historically been given the benefit of the doubt. In 2016, 2015, 2013 they got in at 7-4.

Since expansion, almost all 7-4 (with the 7 being D-I) teams from good conferences have gotten in. This year, there is a glut of 7-4 teams from the Big Sky and Colonial, which make it trickier. A lot of those teams got pasted today and have 1 "quality" win . . . some have bad losses, some don't.

Given all that, a 7-4 team with 2 really good wins would be in a great position . . . but only EWU and S Dakota fit that description, and the latter ended the season losing 4 out of 5.

[JacksFan40]

Scratch that, Georgia Southern beat South Alabama 52-0
Edit:This was intended for whoever said GSU is winless

[FargoBison]

I almost think EWU Is approaching lock status. No bad losses and they are in over both Montana and Sac State due to head to head wins.

[youwouldno]

I almost think EWU Is approaching lock status. No bad losses and they are in over both Montana and Sac State due to head to head wins.

I think EWU is a lock.

[Mike296]

APSU should be in after tonight as long as they don’t choke the last two minutes against EIU


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dungeonjoe]

Everybody is a lock and should be in the playoffs the night before. It's tomorrow at 11am eastern when the door is locked that the wronged sit in the darkness, wailing and gnashing teeth.

[ElCid]

APSU should be in after tonight as long as they don’t choke the last two minutes against EIU


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am not sure even at 8-4. SOS is pretty weak. It doesn't look bad with 3 FBS games, but the FCS SOS was nothing.

[FUGameBreaker]

8-4 Austin Peay's best win was against a 6-5 OVC team, they will not make the playoffs

[Mike296]

I am not sure even at 8-4. SOS is pretty weak. It doesn't look bad with 3 FBS games, but the FCS SOS was nothing.

I see your point. What a turnaround it would be to go from Winless to possibly being in the playoffs. We played a good half against JSU as well. Should we get in I’ll be happy. If we don’t then I won’t be mad knowing that we’re on the upswing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FUGameBreaker]

I see your point. What a turnaround it would be to go from Winless to possibly being in the playoffs. We played a good half against JSU as well. Should we get in I’ll be happy. If we don’t then I won’t be mad knowing that we’re on the upswing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



True, they are on a big upswing!

[BisonTru]

I almost think EWU Is approaching lock status. No bad losses and they are in over both Montana and Sac State due to head to head wins.

Yep, I agree.

IMO, Locks:

Weber State
Eastern Washington
Elon
Stony Brook
South Dakota St
Western Illinois
South Dakota
Northern Iowa
Furman
Samford
Sam Houston St

Bubble (in no order, pick 3):
Monmouth
McNeese St
Austin Peay
Montana
Delaware
New Hampshire
Northern Arizona

[ElCid]

I see your point. What a turnaround it would be to go from Winless to possibly being in the playoffs. We played a good half against JSU as well. Should we get in I’ll be happy. If we don’t then I won’t be mad knowing that we’re on the upswing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Absolutely. I have been watching their turn around. Always nice. Now just beat JSU next time. xthumbsupx If you had beaten one of the FBS (Miami or Cinncy) I would have been all in. You almost did.

[BisonTru]

Resume acceptable teams. 26 teams, 14 bids.

*Assuming McNeese wins, if they lose drop them to the 7 win column.



Green = Autos







11 D1 Wins
SOS


James Madison
32






10 D1 Wins



North Dakota St
12


Jacksonville St
40


Central Arkansas
50


Sam Houston St
68










9 D1 Wins



South Dakota St
2


Southern Utah
9


Stony Brook
31


Wofford
44


Kennesaw St
80


Monmouth
82






8 D1 Wins



Western Illinois
3


Weber St
18


Elon
19


Austin Peay
42


Nicholls St
71


McNeese St
85


San Diego
104






7 D1 Wins



Northern Iowa
1


South Dakota
4


Eastern Washington
7


Northern Arizona
10


Delaware
20


Sacramento St
23


Montana
27


Furman
36


Samford
37


New Hampshire
39


Western Carolina
47


Colgate
55


Central Conn
72


Duquesne
91






6 D1 Wins



Youngstown St
5


Illinois St
8


Richmond
22


Eastern Ill
45


SELA
61

[rocket]

8-4 Austin Peay's best win was against a 6-5 OVC team, they will not make the playoffs

Furmans best win is a 7-5 WCU team...

[dustinthorn93]

Here's my best guess as to what we'll see tomorrow.

Seeds:
1) James Madison
2) North Dakota State
3) Central Arkansas
4) Jacksonville State
5) South Dakota State
6) Wofford
7) Southern Utah
8) Sam Houston State

CCSU/Monmouth winner @ 1) JMU
Lehigh/Stony Brook winner @ 8) SHSU
EWU/South Dakota winner @ 5) SDSU
WIU/Samford winner @ 4) JSU

UNI/Montana winner @ 2) NDSU
San Diego/WSU winner @ 7) SUU
KSU/Elon winner @ 6) Wofford
Furman/McNeese @ 3) UCA

First Four Out: Sac St, Nicholls, APSU, UNH
Last Four In: Montana, Furman, Monmouth, EWU

I wouldn't mind this bracket.

[Mike296]

Absolutely. I have been watching their turn around. Always nice. Now just beat JSU next time. xthumbsupx If you had beaten one of the FBS (Miami or Cinncy) I would have been all in. You almost did.

I was in the stands for the JSU game and that rough 1st quarter basically ended any hopes of winning that game. If you haven’t been to a game at APSU you really are missing out. There’s something special about a game in Clarksville.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FUGameBreaker]

Furmans best win is a 7-5 WCU team...


Yes a 7-5 SoCon team and also a 7-4 Patriot team, that's much better than a 6-5 OVC team

[JaxSinfonian]

Now just beat JSU next time.

Nah. Just beat everybody else and win some games out of conference against FCS teams with scholarships.

[Reign of Terrier]

Resume acceptable teams. 26 teams, 14 bids.

*Assuming McNeese wins, if they lose drop them to the 7 win column.



Green = Autos







11 D1 Wins
SOS


James Madison
32






10 D1 Wins



North Dakota St
12


Jacksonville St
40


Central Arkansas
50


Sam Houston St
68


Kennesaw St
80






9 D1 Wins



South Dakota St
2


Southern Utah
9


Monmouth
82






8 D1 Wins



Western Illinois
3


Weber St
18


Elon
19


Stony Brook
31


Austin Peay
42


Nicholls St
71


McNeese St
85


San Diego
104






7 D1 Wins



Northern Iowa
1


South Dakota
4


Eastern Washington
7


Northern Arizona
10


Delaware
20


Sacramento St
23


Montana
27


Furman
36


Samford
37


New Hampshire
39


Western Carolina
47


Colgate
55


Central Conn
72


Duquesne
91






6 D1 Wins



Youngstown St
5


Illinois St
8


Richmond
22


Eastern Ill
45


SELA
61




Wofford seems to be omitted from your list. We have 9 D1 wins and the autobid

[katss07]

Here's my best guess as to what we'll see tomorrow.

Seeds:
1) James Madison
2) North Dakota State
3) Central Arkansas
4) Jacksonville State
5) South Dakota State
6) Wofford
7) Southern Utah
8) Sam Houston State

CCSU/Monmouth winner @ 1) JMU
Lehigh/Stony Brook winner @ 8) SHSU
EWU/South Dakota winner @ 5) SDSU
WIU/Samford winner @ 4) JSU

UNI/Montana winner @ 2) NDSU
San Diego/WSU winner @ 7) SUU
KSU/Elon winner @ 6) Wofford
Furman/McNeese @ 3) UCA

First Four Out: Sac St, Nicholls, APSU, UNH
Last Four In: Montana, Furman, Monmouth, EWU

I wouldn't mind this bracket.

No way in hell that SHSU falls behind Wofford and SUU. I got respect for both of those teams, but no way.

[BisonTru]

Wofford seems to be omitted from your list. We have 9 D1 wins and the autobid

Sorry, good catch. Fixed.

[Reign of Terrier]

Also Kennesaw only has 9 D1 wins as well. One of their wins was against D2 North Greenville

[iBOsbu]

Resume acceptable teams. 26 teams, 14 bids.

*Assuming McNeese wins, if they lose drop them to the 7 win column.



Green = Autos







11 D1 Wins
SOS


James Madison
32






10 D1 Wins



North Dakota St
12


Jacksonville St
40


Central Arkansas
50


Sam Houston St
68


Kennesaw St
80






9 D1 Wins



South Dakota St
2


Southern Utah
9


Wofford
44


Monmouth
82






8 D1 Wins



Western Illinois
3


Weber St
18


Elon
19


Stony Brook
31


Austin Peay
42


Nicholls St
71


McNeese St
85


San Diego
104






7 D1 Wins



Northern Iowa
1


South Dakota
4


Eastern Washington
7


Northern Arizona
10


Delaware
20


Sacramento St
23


Montana
27


Furman
36


Samford
37


New Hampshire
39


Western Carolina
47


Colgate
55


Central Conn
72


Duquesne
91






6 D1 Wins



Youngstown St
5


Illinois St
8


Richmond
22


Eastern Ill
45


SELA
61




Stony Brook has 9 D1 wins.

[Utgrizfan]

Ill be surprised (pleasantly) if Montana gets in

[dustinthorn93]

No way in hell that SHSU falls behind Wofford and SUU. I got respect for both of those teams, but no way.

The only reason I have SHSU behind those two is if they are really going by the "No same conference Quarterfinals" rule. Otherwise I would have them at 6.

[BisonTru]

Also Kennesaw only has 9 D1 wins as well. One of their wins was against D2 North Greenville


Stony Brook has 9 D1 wins.

For some odd reason I still was think Stony Brook lost. Anyway both of these are correct and fixed.

[BisonFan02]

Ill be surprised (pleasantly) if Montana gets in

Hope for home attendance tiebreaker.

[katss07]

The only reason I have SHSU behind those two is if they are really going by the "No same conference Quarterfinals" rule. Otherwise I would have them at 6.

That rule isn’t a thing. Haley recently interviewed the chair. It was fake news apparently. As long as all teams from the same conference don’t get on same side of the bracket and no second round rematches, the committee can really do whatever.

[dustinthorn93]

That rule isn’t a thing. Haley recently interviewed the chair. It was fake news apparently. As long as all teams from the same conference don’t get on same side of the bracket and no second round rematches, the committee can really do whatever.

Gotcha! Hadn't seen that interview! Yeah then I think SHSU would be the 6 seed.

[Reign of Terrier]

Eyeballing the conference standings around the country, there's only about 29-31 (pending if you count Montana and Western Carolina) teams who have a legitimate case for the playoffs.

It'll be a tight squeeze.

[aceinthehole]

Basically, these 11 teams are fighting for 5 remaining at-large spots, correct?

Bubble (alphabetical)

Delaware (7-4; 5-3 CAA)
Eastern Washington (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
Furman (7-4; 6-2 SoCon)
Monmouth (9-2; 4-1 Big South)
Montana (7-4; 5-3 Big Sky)
New Hampshire (7-4; 5-3 CAA)
Nicholls State (8-3; 7-2 Southland)
Northern Arizona (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
Sacramento State (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
South Dakota (7-4; 4-4 MVFC)
Western Carolina (7-5; 5-3 SoCon)



So who's in and who's out?

[Reign of Terrier]

I'd say Western Carolina and Montana don't have a case. so 5 of those 9.

[FargoBison]

Austin Peay is the most bizarre bubble team ever, no clue what to even do with them.

[FUGameBreaker]

Nicholls State has no chance at getting in at 8-3, the committee will not take 4 Southland teams

[youwouldno]

Austin Peay is the most bizarre bubble team ever, no clue what to even do with them.

Their FCS schedule was very weak and they barely beat several bad opponents. I just don't see how they could possibly pass the smell test . . .

[gofurman]

Basically, these 11 teams are fighting for 5 remaining at-large spots, correct?

Bubble (alphabetical)

Delaware (7-4; 5-3 CAA)
Eastern Washington (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
Furman (7-4; 6-2 SoCon)
Monmouth (9-2; 4-1 Big South)
Montana (7-4; 5-3 Big Sky)
New Hampshire (7-4; 5-3 CAA)
Nicholls State (8-3; 7-2 Southland)
Northern Arizona (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
Sacramento State (7-4; 6-2 Big Sky)
South Dakota (7-4; 4-4 MVFC)
Western Carolina (7-5; 5-3 SoCon)



So who's in and who's out?

good list.

I would take Nicholls off the list and Western Carolina.. I think most here agree with that.

[FargoBison]

Right now I am sitting with these teams....Furman, Montana, UNH, UD, NAU, Monmouth, Sac State and Austin Peay fighting for three spots.

I have EWU, WSU, Elon, SBU, WIU, USD, UNI, SDSU, Samford, SHSU and McNeese all in.

[Reign of Terrier]

Nicholls is definitely on the bubble. They have a good win (McNeese)

[Reign of Terrier]

I struggle with South Dakota, but I think their SOS will ultimately be what saves them

[Cocky]

South Dakota would be a tough sale. Having loss 4 of their last 5.

[FUGameBreaker]

Also no way the Big Sky gets 5 teams in, so Montana, EWU, NAU, Sac. St.

2 of those teams will be left out

[ElCid]

South Dakota would be a tough sale. Having loss 4 of their last 5.

People forget about this aspect.

[FargoBison]

Their FCS schedule was very weak and they barely beat several bad opponents. I just don't see how they could possibly pass the smell test . . .

They don't really pass mine but that has more to do with them beating nobody of note.

[Reign of Terrier]

Also no way the Big Sky gets 5 teams in, so Montana, EWU, NAU, Sac. St.

2 of those teams will be left out

You underestimate how weak the Socon SOS was this year. I don't think the Big Sky gets five, but I don't think four is crazy (before Socon gets 3) because of SOS.

When I say I don't think a conference will get x amount, I'm talking about 5 or 6 while other quality conferences only have 3.

I think people are collectively underestimating Nicholls, McNeese and Austin Peay

[youwouldno]

Nicholls is definitely on the bubble. They have a good win (McNeese)

Though McNeese itself has zero quality wins.

[FargoBison]

South Dakota would be a tough sale. Having loss 4 of their last 5.

Not sure they should be punished too harshly, they closed with @UNI, @NDSU and SDSU. Probably the most brutal stretch of games anyone in the FCS will see and it wasn't like they were getting crushed...a few bounces of the football and they could have won one or two of those games.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm thinking USD is safe but the team I see on the right side of the bubble in most predictions (including mine) that I think may be in trouble is UNH. They have two ugly losses to Albany and Holy Cross that counterbalance their two good wins in Georgia Southern (which may be generous to call it a good win) and Elon. They may have the 2 worst losses of any team on the bubble.

[BisonTru]

I struggle with South Dakota, but I think their SOS will ultimately be what saves them

Why?

The only 7 win team in the country that has a better argument is Northern Iowa. If any other 7 win team gets in and South Dakota is left at home, that might be one of the biggest snubs I've seen.

[Reign of Terrier]

Though McNeese itself has zero quality wins.

Yeah, but they have (or will likely have) 9 wins, so I think they're win and in.

[youwouldno]

Yeah, but they have (or will likely have) 9 wins, so I think they're win and in.

I agree they are in, it's just kind of a weird bootstrapping situation where the Southland gets a bunch of bids because they all beat D-II or D-III caliber opposition in their conference and then sometimes each other.

[Reign of Terrier]

Why?

The only 7 win team in the country that has a better argument is Northern Iowa. If any other 7 win team gets in and South Dakota is left at home, that might be one of the biggest snubs I've seen.

I think the margin of losses in a couple of those games are a head scratcher, especially the one to Illinois State.

Again, I think they are probably in because of their SOS (even if one thinks people overweigh computers, like myself, they clearly played one of the toughest schedules in the country) but I think there's underrated case against them.

[FUGameBreaker]

You underestimate how weak the Socon SOS was this year. I don't think the Big Sky gets five, but I don't think four is crazy (before Socon gets 3) because of SOS.

When I say I don't think a conference will get x amount, I'm talking about 5 or 6 while other quality conferences only have 3.

I think people are collectively underestimating Nicholls, McNeese and Austin Peay



I don't underestimate anything I am fully aware of how everything went this season in FCS football, Big Sky will get 4 which is what I said

[BisonTru]

BTW, a little flashback from a couple years ago. North Dakota was playing the late game, won, was on the bubble and left home. Then the conspiracy theories came out the committee eliminated them cuz they didn't want to stay up.

McNeese is the late game. McNeese is on the bubble. Just sayin.....

[ElCid]

Though McNeese itself has zero quality wins.

And yet SHSU has only Nicholls, and a barely not stinky Richmond and they are in talk for a seed. The rest of their Ws are the same as McNeeses. Hmm.

[PaladinFan]

Not sure they should be punished too harshly, they closed with @UNI, @NDSU and SDSU. Probably the most brutal stretch of games anyone in the FCS will see and it wasn't like they were getting crushed...a few bounces of the football and they could have won one or two of those games.

Yeah, but then don't you just turn the FCS playoffs into the playoffs for the MVFC title?

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't underestimate anything I am fully aware of how everything went this season in FCS football, Big Sky will get 4 which is what I said

sure thing buddy; your conclusion may be correct, but your methodology is <fart noise>

[FUGameBreaker]

Southland will get 3, Nicholls is odd man out

[kalm]

No way in hell that SHSU falls behind Wofford and SUU. I got respect for both of those teams, but no way.

They should both be behind SUU if you value things like quality wins and SOS.

[ElCid]

They should both be behind SUU if you value things like quality wins and SOS.

Easily. Hence why I have SHSU as #8.

[FUGameBreaker]

sure thing buddy; your conclusion may be correct, but your methodology is <fart noise>



We are saying the same thing, 4 Big Sky teams, don't get it twisted for no reason brotha

[Reign of Terrier]

Honestly, I'm just glad Wofford's likely getting a seed

[FargoBison]

Yeah, but then don't you just turn the FCS playoffs into the playoffs for the MVFC title?

If those are the best teams, then that should be how it is. Really USD is saved more because a bunch of other teams took losses today, if some had taken care of business it might be a different discussion.

[youwouldno]

My thoughts on the at-large field as a whole, mostly based on what I think the committee will do, but unavoidably with some personal bias:

At-Large, Candidates (14)
(1) SDSU
(2) SHSU
(3) Western Illinois
(4) Stony Brook
(5) Samford
(6) Weber St
(7) UNI
(8) Elon
(9) Eastern Washington
(10) McNeese St
(11) South Dakota
(12) Sacramento St
(13) Furman
(14) Austin Peay

At-Large, First 4 Out
Nicholls St
Monmouth
Northern Arizona
Delaware

[FUGameBreaker]

Ive got this field:


JMU
JSU
NDSU
UCA
SHSU
SDSU
Wofford
Western Ill.
Stony Brook
Elon
Weber State
Southern Utah
UNH
Samford
Eastern Wash.
Mcneese
Furman
KSU
UNI
Montana
CCSU
San Diego
Lehigh

The final spot will come down to Monmouth, Delaware, South Dakota

[FUGameBreaker]

So basically the final spot will either be a 5th team for MVFC (South Dakota) or a 5th team from the CAA (Delaware)

Or a 9-2 team as the 2nd squad from the Big South (Monmouth)

[FUGameBreaker]

Making case for Furman again:

7-4 tied for 2nd place in SoCon
Won 7 of last 8 games (all FCS wins)
Beat 7-5 WCU (on the road)
Beat 7-4 Colgate (on the road)
Won 6 games by 21 points or more
Lost to Elon, Wofford, Samford (all playoff teams) by total of 10 points, with 2 of those games on the road
Lost @ NC State (ACC)

[rocket]

Making case for Furman again:

7-4 tied for 2nd place in SoCon
Won 7 of last 8 games
Beat 7-5 WCU (on the road)
Beat 7-4 Colgate (on the road)
Won 6 games by 21 points or more
Lost to Elon, Wofford, Samford (all playoff teams) by total of 10 points, with 2 of those games on the road
Lost @ NC State (ACC)


So two wins against a team whose conference got won by a 5-6 team and a 35-40ish ranked WCU team. Your main argument is close losses to teams that havent beaten many teams by wide margins (I think even Wofford fans will agree with this). Furman has one of the weakest arguments on the bubble.

[Reign of Terrier]

So two wins against a team whose conference got won by a 5-6 team and a 35-40ish ranked WCU team. Your main argument is close losses to teams that havent beaten many teams by wide margins (I think even Wofford fans will agree with this). Furman has one of the weakest arguments on the bubble.

You're getting to 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon if you're deconstructing Wofford's margin of victory to invalidate Furman's resume.

A loss to Wofford isn't bad. Wofford won 9 games this year, all Division one; won the socon, which is still a tough (not to mention diverse) conference.

Elon is a playoff team
Samford is a playoff team

Furman's resume hinges on the fact that it doesn't have any bad losses and has some strong showings against every team they played. There are lots of teams with worse resumes. I'd argue Delaware and New Hampshire, just on the top of my head.

[FUGameBreaker]

So two wins against a team whose conference got won by a 5-6 team and a 35-40ish ranked WCU team. Your main argument is close losses to teams that havent beaten many teams by wide margins (I think even Wofford fans will agree with this). Furman has one of the weakest arguments on the bubble.



Lol, actually we are one of the strongest 7-4 teams (and our resume shows it) and will be in the playoffs tomorrow

[youwouldno]

So two wins against a team whose conference got won by a 5-6 team and a 35-40ish ranked WCU team. Your main argument is close losses to teams that havent beaten many teams by wide margins (I think even Wofford fans will agree with this). Furman has one of the weakest arguments on the bubble.

Depends on how you define "the bubble." Furman's resume is fine compared to other teams in contention for the last couple spots.

[katss07]

My Field

1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. Jax St
4. UCA
5. SDSU
6. SHSU
7. SUU
8. Wofford

Auto Bids
CCStU
Lehigh
KSU
San Diego

At Large Bids
Weber
Samford
SHSU
SDSU
USD
UNI
Montana
EWU
McNeese
Austin Peay
Elon
Stony Brook
UNH
Sac St

Last 4 In
Montana
UNH
Austin Peay
Sac St

First 6 Out
Delaware
NAU
Furman
Monmouth
Nicholls
ISUr

[rocket]

Depends on how you define "the bubble." Furman's resume is fine compared to other teams in contention for the last couple spots.

Maybe, if I'm underrating victory margin etc it might be. I just don't see a quality victory in there. If we're looking at it in an NCAA basketball tournament way (obviously its a bit different). I think Furman is the team that probably wins the NIT.

[Mike296]

I’m still surprised at all the love we’re getting from these bracket predictions. Sure we finished 8-4 but our schedule was very weak. If we do get in I’ll be pleasantly surprised to say the least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FUGameBreaker]

[QUOTE=rocket;2570766]Maybe, if I'm underrating victory margin etc it might be. I just don't see a quality victory in there. If we're looking at it in an NCAA basketball tournament way (obviously its a bit different). I think Furman is the team that probably wins the NIT.[/QUOTE

Rocket, who is your team?

[youwouldno]

Maybe, if I'm underrating victory margin etc it might be. I just don't see a quality victory in there. If we're looking at it in an NCAA basketball tournament way (obviously its a bit different). I think Furman is the team that probably wins the NIT.

As opposed to Austin Peay, Monmouth, etc. with all their quality wins? The teams with good wins aren't fighting for the last couple spots.

[rocket]

Question for Montana fans (if you're not all out rioting). If you get in and win a first round game does Stitt get a pass for today? Y'all seem pretty pissed.

[FUGameBreaker]

My Field

1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. Jax St
4. UCA
5. SDSU
6. SHSU
7. SUU
8. Wofford

Auto Bids
CCStU
Lehigh
KSU
San Diego

At Large Bids
Weber
Samford
SHSU
SDSU
USD
UNI
Montana
EWU
McNeese
Austin Peay
Elon
Stony Brook
UNH
Sac St

Last 4 In
Montana
UNH
Austin Peay
Sac St

First 6 Out
Delaware
NAU
Furman
Monmouth
Nicholls
ISUr



The Big Sky won't get 5 teams in and SoCon only 2, just not how it works, honestly

[rocket]

As opposed to Austin Peay, Monmouth, etc. with all their quality wins? The teams with good wins aren't fighting for the last couple spots.

I do see your point there tbh. At that point does having 7 wins screw you guys out of a bid though? I do know that APSU has the extra game so that might diminish the 8 wins a bit.

[FUGameBreaker]

I do see your point there tbh. At that point does having 7 wins screw you guys out of a bid though? I do know that APSU has the extra game so that might diminish the 8 wins a bit.


Is your team APSU?

[FUGameBreaker]

I do see your point there tbh. At that point does having 7 wins screw you guys out of a bid though? I do know that APSU has the extra game so that might diminish the 8 wins a bit.



Do you realize that almost every bubble team has 7 wins? And do you really want to come and attack Furman for their wins, but boost about APSU 8 wins? lol

So what if they have 8 wins, they beat 6-5 OVC team and other worse teams, you have no argument at all

[FUGameBreaker]

So like I said, of all the bubble teams vying for the final 6 spots or so, Furman has one of the best resumes:

7-4 tied for 2nd place in SoCon
Won 7 of last 8 games (all FCS wins)
Beat 7-5 WCU (on the road)
Beat 7-4 Colgate (on the road)
Won 6 games by 21 points or more
Lost to Elon, Wofford, Samford (all playoff teams) by total of 10 points, with 2 of those games on the road
Lost @ NC State (ACC)

[rocket]

Is your team APSU?

Jacksonville U. Have no dog in this fight, just think your way off in believing that Furman is a lock. There's about 7 teams that could get in. I don't think Furman has any sort of a resume that would make me super confident as a Paladin fan (awesome campus BTW).

[kalm]

I’m still surprised at all the love we’re getting from these bracket predictions. Sure we finished 8-4 but our schedule was very weak. If we do get in I’ll be pleasantly surprised to say the least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Humble and rational post right here. Niceley done!

[FUGameBreaker]

Jacksonville U. Have no dog in this fight, just think your way off in believing that Furman is a lock. There's about 7 teams that could get in. I don't think Furman has any sort of a resume that would make me super confident as a Paladin fan (awesome campus BTW).


But you have said nothing of what other teams resume's stand out more as being better and why "specifically"

Your just hating on Furman resume, and that's all?!? Its a two way street

[youwouldno]

I do see your point there tbh. At that point does having 7 wins screw you guys out of a bid though? I do know that APSU has the extra game so that might diminish the 8 wins a bit.

The problem is this - if all that matters is wins, then what happens to the teams we are assuming are in based on SoS? I mean, South Dakota has lost 4 of the last 5 . . . that would be disqualifying unless you give them a pass for the quality of opponents.

It's just hard to come up with an approach where you are consistent across the board and leave Furman out. The only way to really do it is care about SoS for some teams and count wins for others.

[uofmman1122]

Yeesh, how are you guys putting us in the field?

Montana does not belong this year.

[FUGameBreaker]

Anyways I am out will tune in tomorrow for the selection show, I could be wrong, but I feel pretty good the Paladins will be dancing, have a good night everybody!

[rocket]

Do you realize that almost every bubble team has 7 wins? And do you really want to come and attack Furman for their wins, but boost about APSU 8 wins? lol

So what if they have 8 wins, they beat 6-5 OVC team and other worse teams, you have no argument at all

The committee values number of division one wins as one of their criteria. Therefore, if things are equal they will probably take the team with more wins. Furman Doesn't have the number of top 25, or a mega killer FBS win that would put them over the edge of the other 7 win or 8 win teams (ala EWU). So the one less win may come back to bite them in the end.

[rocket]

The problem is this - if all that matters is wins, then what happens to the teams we are assuming are in based on SoS? I mean, South Dakota has lost 4 of the last 5 . . . that would be disqualifying unless you give them a pass for the quality of opponents.

It's just hard to come up with an approach where you are consistent across the board and leave Furman out. The only way to really do it is care about SoS for some teams and count wins for others.

I wouldnt put USD in if I was selecting the bracket either though tbh. I just think it ends up coming down to that number with the bubble as close as it is.

[FUGameBreaker]

The committee values number of division one wins as one of their criteria. Therefore, if things are equal they will probably take the team with more wins. Furman Doesn't have the number of top 25, or a mega killer FBS win that would put them over the edge of the other 7 win or 8 win teams (ala EWU). So the one less win may come back to bite them in the end.



Its all good man, lets see what the committee has to say in the morning, cheers xbeerchugx

[youwouldno]

I wouldnt put USD in if I was selecting the bracket either though tbh. I just think it ends up coming down to that number with the bubble as close as it is.

Well most of the real 'bubble' has 7 wins. So that theory would benefit a couple of teams but still leave plenty of question marks.