Bracketology Week 11

[FargoBison]

Lots of playoff talk going on...time for some bracketology...

The Bracket:
Lehigh at Delaware vs 1. JMU
San Diego at Weber State vs 8. SUU

South Dakota at Montana vs 5. SDSU
WIU at Stony Brook vs 4. UCA

Elon at McNeese State vs 3. JSU
Nicholls at Northern Iowa vs 6. SHSU

Kennesaw State at Furman vs 7. Wofford
CCSU at UNH vs 2. NDSU


Autobid(10):
Big Sky: SUU
Big South: Kennesaw State
CAA: JMU
MVFC: NDSU
NEC: CCSU
OVC: JSU
Patriot: Lehigh
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: Wofford
SLC: UCA


At-Large(14)
Big Sky: Weber State, Montana
CAA: Elon, Delaware, Stony Brook, UNH
MVFC: WIU, SDSU, UNI, USD
SoCon: Furman
SLC: SHSU, Nicholls State, McNeese State


Bubble: Samford, NAU, EWU, WCU, Ill State, Monmouth, Sac State, Austin Peay, Eastern Illinois


Teams in bold have clinched an autobid
-

[FargoBison]

Some other brackets...

Hero sports bracket...
(https://herosports.com/fcs/football-fcs-bracket-seeds-1st-round-games-november-11-2017-ajaj)
1. James Madison vs. Lehigh/Stony Brook
8. Western Illinois vs. CCSU/UNH


4. Jacksonville State vs. Samford/SHSU
5. South Dakota State vs. USD/Montana


3. Central Arkansas vs. Elon/Furman
6. Wofford vs. Kennesaw/Delaware


7. Southern Utah vs. San Diego/Weber St.
2. North Dakota State vs. NAU/UNI


NoBowls Bracket...


http://www.nobowls.com/images/week11.png

[katss07]

I have lost all trust in Hero Sports with this bracket. SHSU no seed, SUU a 7, Samford and Furman in? Wtf...

I like FargoBison’s bracket. We would get UNI, Nicholls in round 2, which would set up an interesting scenario. The SLC could gain some serious respect. I don’t want to knock out a fellow Southland member, but we may have to. We killed Nicholls early season. I think the Kats are more likely to go to JSU in the quarterfinals than to go to UCA. Want to avoid qf rematches right? I like seeing McNeese in there! Also, good to have you back Montana.

Nobowls is the site that does the “if the season ended today” thing right? Plus how is Wofford a 5 and SHSU a 7? Flip those two and you are good.

[JSUSoutherner]

A South Dakota State/ JSU matchup?

That'd be a good game.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think for political/economic reasons you're more likely to see (assuming the right teams win and based upon committee rankings this week:

JMU v. Stony Brook as the 1/8
JSU v. Wofford as the 2/7 (Wofford will likely lose to SC this weekend but I don't think they'll drop; last year Citadel got whalloped against UNC and they didn't)
UCA v. SHSU as the 3/6
NDSU v. SDSU as the 4/5

[katss07]

I think for political/economic reasons you're more likely to see (assuming the right teams win and based upon committee rankings this week:

JMU v. Stony Brook as the 1/8
JSU v. Wofford as the 2/7 (Wofford will likely lose to SC this weekend but I don't think they'll drop; last year Citadel got whalloped against UNC and they didn't)
UCA v. SHSU as the 3/6
NDSU v. SDSU as the 4/5
The Bison should (and probably will) move back up at least a spot.

[FargoBison]

I have lost all trust in Hero Sports with this bracket. SHSU no seed, SUU a 7, Samford and Furman in? Wtf...

I like FargoBison’s bracket. We would get UNI, Nicholls in round 2, which would set up an interesting scenario. The SLC could gain some serious respect. I don’t want to knock out a fellow Southland member, but we may have to. We killed Nicholls early season. I think the Kats are more likely to go to JSU in the quarterfinals than to go to UCA. Want to avoid qf rematches right? I like seeing McNeese in there! Also, good to have you back Montana.

Nobowls is the site that does the “if the season ended today” thing right? Plus how is Wofford a 5 and SHSU a 7? Flip those two and you are good.

Yes, Nobowls is if the season ended today but he did make two predictions Furman over Samford and NDSU over Illinois State for his bracket.

[Reign of Terrier]

The Bison should (and probably will) move back up at least a spot.

It's possible, if not likely. I imagine one political goal may be to have NDSU v JMU for the title game

[Grizalltheway]

I think Montana vs both South Dakota schools would be great matchups.

[FargoBison]

Upon further review I need to make a few changes....I guess the committee is working with a new seeding guideline this year...So I'm swapping SDSU and SHSU....



"If two teams from the same conference are seeded, the selection committee is charged with placing them on opposite sides of the bracket, even if it means changing seed lines. The new rankings reflected that policy, although it could have been coincidence for the three conferences that had two teams among the top eight - CAA Football, Missouri Valley and Southland."



http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20171109220959700985304

[Professor Chaos]

Upon further review I need to make a few changes....I guess the committee is working with a new seeding guideline this year...So I'm swapping SDSU and SHSU.
A very welcome change IMO. Would've been nice to have that last year since it likely would've meant SDSU got bumped up to #7 and UND bumped down to #8 so as to avoid being on the same side of the bracket as their respective higher seeded conference co-champs.

Now if only they'd get rid of setting up potential 2nd round rematches.... baby steps I guess....

[JSUSoutherner]

Upon further review I need to make a few changes....I guess the committee is working with a new seeding guideline this year...So I'm swapping SDSU and SHSU.
So the seeds are:

1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. JSU
4. UCA
5. SDSU
6. Wofford
7. SHSU
8. SUU

Pretty much guaranteed unless someone blows chunks this week. 8 could change maybe.

[WCU-Cats!]

There is no way McNeese is getting in the playoffs as a 4th Southland team, that schedule is pretty much a joke

[FargoBison]

Would be interesting if SUU loses and Stony Brook slips into the seed discussion, they would have to be a seven seed.

[Reign of Terrier]

If Western Carolina wants to troll the committee they could beat UNC this week

[BisonTru]

My take:




Lehigh
1
James Madison








Delaware
































San Diego
8
Southern Utah








Weber St
































Western Illinois
4
Jacksonville St








Furman
































McNeese St
5
Sam Houston St








Northern Iowa
































Monmouth
3
Central Arkansas









Stony Brook
































South Dakota
6
South Dakota St








Eastern Washington
































Elon
7
Wofford








Kennesaw St
































Central Connecticut
2
North Dakota St








New Hampshire



































Autos
At larges





First four out
Illinois State

Big Sky
Southern Utah
Weber St
Eastern Wash





Northern Arizon

Big South
Kennesaw St
Monmouth






Montana

CAA
James Madison
Delaware
Stony Brook
Elon
New Hampshire



Nicholls St

MVFC
North Dakota St
South Dakota St
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Northern Iowa





NEC
Central Connecticut







Next four out
Western Carolina

OVC
Jacksonville St







Samford

Patroit
Lehigh







Richmond

Pioneer
San Diego







Sacramento State

Southern
Wofford
Furman








Southland
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston St
McNeese

[WCU-Cats!]

If Western Carolina wants to troll the committee they could beat UNC this week


Doubt we will, we tend to not show up in important games which is a problem

Nevertheless the Southland is NOT getting 4 teams, 9-2 McNeese will be left at home

[WCU-Cats!]

How can you leave out Nicholls St but include McNeese? No way, McNeese is for sure the odd man out in the Southland

[Grizalltheway]

My take:




Lehigh
1
James Madison








Delaware
































San Diego
8
Southern Utah








Weber St
































Western Illinois
4
Jacksonville St








Kennesaw St
































McNeese St
5
Sam Houston St








Northern Iowa
































Monmouth
3
Central Arkansas








Stony Brook
































South Dakota
6
South Dakota St








Eastern Washington
































Furman
7
Wofford








Elon
































Central Connecticut
2
North Dakota St








New Hampshire



































Autos
At larges





First four out
Illinois State

Big Sky
Southern Utah
Weber St
Eastern Wash





Northern Arizon

Big South
Kennesaw St
Monmouth






Montana

CAA
James Madison
Delaware
Stony Brook
Elon
New Hampshire



Nicholls St

MVFC
North Dakota St
South Dakota St
South Dakota
Western Illinois
Northern Iowa





NEC
Central Connecticut






Next four out
Western Carolina

OVC
Jacksonville St







Samford

Patroit
Lehigh







Richmond

Pioneer
San Diego







Sacramento State

Southern
Wofford
Furman








Southland
Central Arkansas
Sam Houston St
McNeese





So are you predicting that we lose to the cats or that an 8-3 team from a big 4 conference will be left out for the first time...ever?

[WCU-Cats!]

And some of you have Elon vs Furman in the first round, don't they try to avoid regular season rematches in the first round? Has that happened recently?

[TheKingpin28]

If I am reading this correctly, then this completely prevents WIU from getting the 8 seed, regardless of how the rankings break out as long as SDSU and NDSU both win.

[JSUSoutherner]

Here's my guess.


Lehigh/ Stony Brook > #1 JMU
San Diego/ Montana > #8 SUU

Furman/ WIU > #4 UCA
CCSU/ UNH >#5 SDSU


UNI/ Delaware > #2 NDSU
Kennesaw/ Austin Peay > #7 SHSU

Nicholls State / Samford > #3 JSU
Elon/ USD > #6 Wofford

[FargoBison]

There is no way McNeese is getting in the playoffs as a 4th Southland team, that schedule is pretty much a joke

Well they were my last team in, so I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them out. It is going to be interesting to see what they do with the a team with their record, historically they would be in spite of the schedule.

[BisonTru]

And some of you have Elon vs Furman in the first round, don't they try to avoid regular season rematches in the first round? Has that happened recently?

Good point. I'm going to adjust mine. Forgot they played.

[BisonTru]

So are you predicting that we lose to the cats or that an 8-3 team from a big 4 conference will be left out for the first time...ever?

Massey has you guys as a slight underdog. New Hampshire was another 8 win team from a top conference I struggled with including, but they at least have the FBS win. The bubble could get awfully full this year. Everyone should be rooting for some upsets around the country if you're in the bubble.

[katss07]

So the seeds are:

1. JMU
2. NDSU
3. JSU
4. UCA
5. SDSU
6. Wofford
7. SHSU
8. SUU

Pretty much guaranteed unless someone blows chunks this week. 8 could change maybe.

No, what he meant by “swapping SDSU and SHSU” was moving SHSU down a spot based on the no rematch thing, plus allows for a bus trip.

[melloware13]

Here's my guess.


Lehigh/ Stony Brook > #1 JMU
San Diego/ Montana > #8 SUU

Furman/ WIU > #4 UCA
USD/ UNH >#5 SDSU


UNI/ Delaware > #2 NDSU
Kennesaw/ Austin Peay > #7 SHSU

Nicholls State / Samford > #3 JSU
Elon/ CCSU > #6 Wofford

As long as UNH wins, CCSU is going there.

[JSUSoutherner]

As long as UNH wins, CCSU is going there.

Adjusted. I swapped CCSU and USD. Kept the second round game at SDSU from being a rematch as well.

[Reign of Terrier]

Here's my guess.


Lehigh/ Stony Brook > #1 JMU
San Diego/ Montana > #8 SUU

Furman/ WIU > #4 UCA
CCSU/ UNH >#5 SDSU


UNI/ Delaware > #2 NDSU
Kennesaw/ Austin Peay > #7 SHSU

Nicholls State / Samford > #3 JSU
Elon/ USD > #6 Wofford

The only problem I have with this hypothetical bracket is that there are too many plane trips.

I think there's a good chance Kennesaw and Furman are a first round game.

What's the specific rule about rematches? Or are there like 3? I think there's a strong chance of Wofford and Furman rematching in the second round as the two schools are <50 miles away unless there's a specific prohibition.

[JSUSoutherner]

The only problem I have with this hypothetical bracket is that there are too many plane trips.

I think there's a good chance Kennesaw and Furman are a first round game.

What's the specific rule about rematches? Or are there like 3? I think there's a strong chance of Wofford and Furman rematching in the second round as the two schools are <50 miles away unless there's a specific prohibition.

I made the bracket to limit first and second round rematches then placed teams as close together as I could after that.

[Reign of Terrier]

I made the bracket to limit first and second round rematches then placed teams as close together as I could after that.

I prefer your bracket (Furman is ****ing scary)...but I would be very surprised if Furman and kennesaw got in and they weren't playing each other and then Furman.

[melloware13]

My guess, assuming mostly chalk with Southern Utah, Furman, and Kennesaw winning.

Monmouth @ Stony Brook -> 1. James Madison
San Diego @ Montana -> 8. Southern Utah

Nicholls @ Kennesaw State -> 4. Central Arkansas
Weber State @ Northern Iowa -> 5. South Dakota State

Central Connecticut @ New Hampshire -> 2. North Dakota State
Elon @ Furman -> 7. Wofford

Lehigh @ Delaware -> 3. Jacksonville State
Western Illinois @ McNeese -> 6. Sam Houston State

Last 4 in: Elon, Northern Iowa, McNeese, Monmouth
First 4 out: South Dakota, Eastern Washington, Samford, Illinois State

[Reign of Terrier]

My guess, assuming mostly chalk with Southern Utah, Furman, and Kennesaw winning.

Monmouth @ Stony Brook -> 1. James Madison
San Diego @ Montana -> 8. Southern Utah

Kennesaw State @ Nicholls -> 4. Central Arkansas
Weber State @ Northern Iowa -> 5. South Dakota State

Central Connecticut @ New Hampshire -> 2. North Dakota State
Elon @ Furman -> 7. Wofford

Lehigh @ Delaware -> 3. Jacksonville State
Western Illinois @ McNeese -> 6. Sam Houston State

Last 4 in: Elon, Northern Iowa, McNeese, Monmouth
First 4 out: South Dakota, Eastern Washington, Samford, Illinois State

to repeat (looks like we're going to make this part of bracket bingo or a drinking game): furman and Elon played in the regular season so a rematch in the first round is likely out of the question.

[thebootfitter]

And some of you have Elon vs Furman in the first round, don't they try to avoid regular season rematches in the first round? Has that happened recently?I'm pretty certain the "no rematch in first round" rule only applies to conference mates. If you play a team out of conference, you may still get matched up in the first round. I'm sure someone has the link to the rules, but I'll be surprised if we find otherwise. Perhaps they still apply a slight preference for no OOC rematches too, but I would guess the bus trips rule trumps OOC rematches.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[thebootfitter]

to repeat (looks like we're going to make this part of bracket bingo or a drinking game): furman and Elon played in the regular season so a rematch in the first round is likely out of the question.And again... That's CAA and SoCon. So the rule doesn't apply here.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[melloware13]

I'm pretty certain the "no rematch in first round" rule only applies to conference mates. If you play a team out of conference, you may still get matched up in the first round. I'm sure someone has the link to the rules, but I'll be surprised if we find otherwise. Perhaps they still apply a slight preference for no OOC rematches too, but I would guess the bus trips rule trumps OOC rematches.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Unless it changed this year, San Diego and Cal Poly played twice last year.

[McNeese72]

How can you leave out Nicholls St but include McNeese? No way, McNeese is for sure the odd man out in the Southland

Don't be surprised if Nicholls loses to Southeastern La. Thursday night. SLU had a bye this week to prepare for that Thursday night game. Nicholls has a very short time to prepare. And the game is in Hammond.

McNeese would have never lost to Nicholls if it wouldn't have been a Thursday night game and the first game of the season. We beat them every which way that game but the final score. Served the game up to them on a silver platter.

Doc

[JSUSoutherner]

Furman is ****ing scary
But are they as dangerous as Abilene Christian?

[BisonTru]

I'm pretty certain the "no rematch in first round" rule only applies to conference mates. If you play a team out of conference, you may still get matched up in the first round. I'm sure someone has the link to the rules, but I'll be surprised if we find otherwise. Perhaps they still apply a slight preference for no OOC rematches too, but I would guess the bus trips rule trumps OOC rematches.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Here it is.

"Regular season non-conference match-ups in the first round of the championship should be avoided, provided it doesnot create an additional flight(s)."

In my bracket I sent Furman to Jacksonville St and then KSU and Elon would be routed through Wofford.

[BisonTru]

Unless it changed this year, San Diego and Cal Poly played twice last year.

There was no way to split that matchup up without creating a flight. See the rule I just posted.

[BisonTru]

But are they as dangerous as Abilene Christian?

No. The Wildcats beat Florida State.... ..... in 1956. So...

[JSUSoutherner]

Here it is.

"Regular season non-conference match-ups in the first round of the championship should be avoided, provided it doesnot create an additional flight(s)."

In my bracket I sent Furman to Jacksonville St and then KSU and Elon would be routed through Wofford.

What is the mileage before a bus trip becomes a flight?

[BisonTru]

What is the mileage before a bus trip becomes a flight?

400

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I can't see anyway Lehigh doesn't end up at Delaware if the both win this weekend. The committee has been trying to hook them up for 40 years....

[JSUSoutherner]

400
So given the at large pool we should be able to predict a couple different scenarios here.

Meh, I'll do it tomorrow.

[ming01]

Monmouth at Delaware vs 1 JMU
San Diego at Weber St vs 8 SUU
WIU at Elon vs 5 Wofford
Lehigh at USD vs 4 UCA

Nicholls at Samford vs 3 JSU
McNeese at UNI vs 6 SHSU
CCSU at UNH vs 7 Stony Brook
EWU at SDSU vs 2 NDSU

I have USD beating SDSU, which is why I don't have SDSU seeded.

[katss07]

But are they as dangerous as Abilene Christian?

Be careful. You don’t want the committee to hear anything...


Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

[Reign of Terrier]

But are they as dangerous as Abilene Christian?

Not as scary as Chattanooga at their peak

[ming01]

And some of you have Elon vs Furman in the first round, don't they try to avoid regular season rematches in the first round? Has that happened recently?

Poly vs San Diego last year

[BisonTru]

So given the at large pool we should be able to predict a couple different scenarios here.

Meh, I'll do it tomorrow.

For JSU, Furman and/or Kennesaw St are likely pairings. Also Samford if they are in.

[Reign of Terrier]

For JSU, Furman and/or Kennesaw St are likely pairings. Also Samford if they are in.

I would go with the shorthand that Kennesaw would play the second place socon team in the field of 24 and if that team is Samford, they'd go to JSU. If that team is Furman, they probably go to Wofford.

[melloware13]

Poly vs San Diego last year
UNH and Colgate in 2015, but anyone other than Colgate would have made a flight for UNH.

[JSUSoutherner]

I would go with the shorthand that Kennesaw would play the second place socon team in the field of 24 and if that team is Samford, they'd go to JSU. If that team is Furman, they probably go to Wofford.
Yeah if the bottom line is the most important thing in determining matchups then it's hard to think KSU and Samford will go anywhere but JSU and Furman will go to Wofford.

[katss07]

Not as scary as Chattanooga at their peak

I think I might start a thread called “2018 ACU: Championship Caliber

[JSUSoutherner]

I think I might start a thread called “2018 ACU: Championship Caliber
You're not old enough to make that joke.

[katss07]

You're not old enough to make that joke.

I’ve been around longer than you think.

[Bison56]

You guys better stop trashing ACU.

[kalm]

So are you predicting that we lose to the cats or that an 8-3 team from a big 4 conference will be left out for the first time...ever?

Since the expanded field? Yes.
But he has both Big South's and McNeese in there so I think you slide in ahead of one of those.

[WileECoyote06]

If Stony Brook plays in the first round, Central Connecticut State is only 71 miles away. Those two will be paired together.

[JSUSoutherner]

I’ve been around longer than you think.
Far enough.

[Gangtackle11]

If Stony Brook plays in the first round, Central Connecticut State is only 71 miles away. Those two will be paired together.

Not if UNH is playing in Round 1. CCSU is 170 miles away. Lehigh is 360 Miles to Durham.

I say better chance that CCSU plays @ UNH
& Lehigh (if they win) plays at Stony Brook or Delaware.

[Daytripper]

Don't be surprised if Nicholls loses to Southeastern La. Thursday night. SLU had a bye this week to prepare for that Thursday night game. Nicholls has a very short time to prepare. And the game is in Hammond.

McNeese would have never lost to Nicholls if it wouldn't have been a Thursday night game and the first game of the season. We beat them every which way that game but the final score. Served the game up to them on a silver platter.

Doc

Agree on both points.

[70MilesFromCanada]

Did PODKNOWS issue his infamous #bookit on NDSU getting the #2 seed? It's pretty widespread in this thread based on various conspiracies, politics, etc. that they will move up. For me, it seems like a big move this late in the season unless the higher ranked teams lose.

[CockyGeek]

I would really love to see Furman again. I will hold a grudge against that extra second until the day I die.

[katss07]

Did PODKNOWS issue his infamous #bookit on NDSU getting the #2 seed? It's pretty widespread in this thread based on various conspiracies, politics, etc. that they will move up. For me, it seems like a big move this late in the season unless the higher ranked teams lose.
The committee will give NDSU the benefit of the doubt. They will move up to 2.

[WileECoyote06]

Not if UNH is playing in Round 1. CCSU is 170 miles away. Lehigh is 360 Miles to Durham.

I say better chance that CCSU plays @ UNH
& Lehigh (if they win) plays at Stony Brook or Delaware.

It may work that way, but there has been a precedent to match the schools that are closest together. In 2010, many thought SCSU would be matched against Coastal Carolina. They were instead sent to Ga. Southern.

But when you looked at the difference in mileage:

Orangeburg to Statesboro: 98 miles.
Orangeburg to Conway: 127 miles.


Stony Brook to Central Connecticut State: 71. 1 miles
Central Connecticut State to UNH (Durham): 168.5 miles
Stony Brook U to Monmouth U: 112 miles
Delaware to Monmouth U: 118 miles
Lehigh to Delaware: 88.2 miles
Monmouth to Lehigh: 95.2 miles

So if all six advance to play in the opening round:

Lehigh @ U of Delaware
Central Connecticut State @ Stony Brook

Monmouth and UNH are the odd ones out. They'll probably be matched with each other since that also falls within a bus trip (324 miles).

IMO

[jacksfan29]

Massey has you guys as a slight underdog. New Hampshire was another 8 win team from a top conference I struggled with including, but they at least have the FBS win. The bubble could get awfully full this year. Everyone should be rooting for some upsets around the country if you're in the bubble.

Your scenario also has SDSU beating USD. Going 1-4 to finish the season with no playoff history, I think USD stays home if they lose Saturday and if Montana wins, they are in.

[thebootfitter]

Did PODKNOWS issue his infamous #bookit on NDSU getting the #2 seed? It's pretty widespread in this thread based on various conspiracies, politics, etc. that they will move up. For me, it seems like a big move this late in the season unless the higher ranked teams lose.You don't remember how much teams moved around last year from one committee ranking to the next? I know the committee tries hard to follow their own rules and do justice to the process, but I wouldn't be surprised by anything they do.

If they look at the season as a whole and not just slot vote, I don't think there's any way a fair committee would drop the Bison past #2 -- assuming they beat ISUr. But again... I won't be surprised by anything the committee does.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

[Gangtackle11]

It may work that way, but there has been a precedent to match the schools that are closest together. In 2010, many thought SCSU would be matched against Coastal Carolina. They were instead sent to Ga. Southern.

But when you looked at the difference in mileage:

Orangeburg to Statesboro: 98 miles.
Orangeburg to Conway: 127 miles.


Stony Brook to Central Connecticut State: 71. 1 miles
Central Connecticut State to UNH (Durham): 168.5 miles
Stony Brook U to Monmouth U: 112 miles
Delaware to Monmouth U: 118 miles
Lehigh to Delaware: 88.2 miles
Monmouth to Lehigh: 95.2 miles

So if all six advance to play in the opening round:

Lehigh @ U of Delaware
Central Connecticut State @ Stony Brook

Monmouth and UNH are the odd ones out. They'll probably be matched with each other since that also falls within a bus trip (324 miles).

IMO

The missing component is that the 1st round is a pay to host system. UNH or Delaware will not lose a home bid contest to any of those teams.

The other is Lehigh doesn’t have lights so they won’t host a game.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

The missing component is that the 1st round is a pay to host system. UNH nor Delaware will lose a home bid contest.

The other is Lehigh doesn’t have lights so they won’t host a game.

Where are we on this? Is there any concrete info on game times this year? I could totally see Lehigh submitting a generous bid after last year's outcry. But it does come down to lights. The facility is obviously there. A game against SBU at Goodman would fair reasonably well by 1st round standards imo, 5-7k.

[aceinthehole]

It may work that way, but there has been a precedent to match the schools that are closest together. In 2010, many thought SCSU would be matched against Coastal Carolina. They were instead sent to Ga. Southern.

But when you looked at the difference in mileage:

Orangeburg to Statesboro: 98 miles.
Orangeburg to Conway: 127 miles.


Stony Brook to Central Connecticut State: 71. 1 miles
Central Connecticut State to UNH (Durham): 168.5 miles
Stony Brook U to Monmouth U: 112 miles
Delaware to Monmouth U: 118 miles
Lehigh to Delaware: 88.2 miles
Monmouth to Lehigh: 95.2 miles

So if all six advance to play in the opening round:

Lehigh @ U of Delaware
Central Connecticut State @ Stony Brook

Monmouth and UNH are the odd ones out. They'll probably be matched with each other since that also falls within a bus trip (324 miles).

IMO

Yes, but UNH has hosted the PL the last 5 times they have hosted a First Round game. I think they might welcome the opportunity to mix things up for Wildcat fans.

The bus ride for CCSU to New Hampshire is one of the easiest to make for an opponent. I also think they will keep a “New England” regional matchup.

Monmouth (if they are in) is an equally short ride from the Jersey Shore to Long Island. Again, I think the NJ-NY matchup makes more sense.

Finally, Lehigh has a history with Delaware and this is a no-brainer for the committee.

If Kennesaw State wins the Big South and Monmouth is left home, that could change the math. But again do they send Lehigh to UNH in another first round game or do they send Mountain Hawks to SBU and have Central Conn. bus up to UNH.

[aceinthehole]

New Hampshire - FCS Playoff Matchups

2016 – Lehigh at UNH
2015 – Colgate at UNH
2014 – Sacred Heart/Fordham at UNH (Second Round)
2013 – Lafayette at UNH
...
2005 - Colgate at UNH

UNH has hosted a Patriot League team the last 5 times they have had a home game.

[van]

CCU - UNH will be the match if UNH gets in, which with their history I fully expect

would be a shame if Monmouth does not get in, but if not then Stony Brook - Lehigh seems plausible with Delaware getting Big south or socon opponent

[van]

New Hampshire - FCS Playoff Matchups

2016 – Lehigh at UNH
2015 – Colgate at UNH
2014 – Sacred Heart/Fordham at UNH (Second Round)
2013 – Lafayette at UNH
...
2005 - Colgate at UNH

UNH has hosted a Patriot League team the last 5 times they have had a home game.

missing a key data point, was there a NE team in the first round any of those years?

[aceinthehole]

missing a key data point, was there a NE team in the first round any of those years?

Good point. UNH is tucked up in the Northeast corner and has had very few options to host anyone other than Patriot League teams. That is why I think they send CCSU up to Durham instead of to Stony Brook, even though SBU is closer.

2016 - Saint Francis at Villanova
2015 - Fordham at Chattanooga / Duquesne at William & Mary
2014 - Sacred Heart at Fordham
2013 - Sacred Heart at Fordham
2005 - Lafayette at Appalachian State

[katss07]

Must be good to be a UNH fan. First round means you almost always get the NEC, Big South or PL champ. That typically means a win.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

If Stony Brook plays in the first round, Central Connecticut State is only 71 miles away. Those two will be paired together.

That's got to be the as the crow flies mileage. Or in other words, taking the ferry across Long Island Sound which is VERY expensive (will the NCAA pick up that tab). If the game ends late enough in the evening, then taking the ferry isn't even possible. Still, even driving to the Throgs Neck Bridge between the Bronx and Queens and out the Long Island Expressway is a little shorter distance than New Britain to Durham. If it wasn't for the Metro NYC traffic, the driving distance is almost a wash. And the tolls are less on the trip to NH. :D

[Mattymc727]

Must be good to be a UNH fan. First round means you almost always get the NEC, Big South or PL champ. That typically means a win.

King in the North!

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Must be good to be a UNH fan. First round means you almost always get the NEC, Big South or PL champ. That typically means a win.

After being sent to Georgia Southern, Hampton, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, McNeese State, Bethune-Cookman, Wofford and Montana State for opening games over the years, we're happy to have some home games. Grateful we now have a facility with lights and modern electrical infrastructure that won't cause us to be forced on the road any longer. Grateful we in FCS have a 24 team tournament and not the four team version in FBS nor the fully regionalized version in D-II and D-III. It's just a first round game, don't think a team has won four games to get to the championship game yet.

Don't forget that Lehigh was the favorite last season and that Colgate won their playoff game in Durham. And no Big South team other than Monmouth is a bus ride to Durham, their champ is usually going to a SoCon, OVC, SLC or southern CAA team in the first round.

By the way, we'd be quite happy to welcome some of our southern friends up to Durham to enjoy our wonderful end of November weather. Be careful what you wish for! ;)xpeacex

[RabidRabbit]

. Grateful we in FCS have a 24 team tournament and not the four team version in FBS nor the fully regionalized version in D-II and D-III. It's just a first round game, don't think a team has won four games to get to the championship game yet.

IIRC, YSU was first school since 24's started to be a non-seed to championship game.

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[deez_na]

The committee will give NDSU the benefit of the doubt. They will move up to 2.
If they win this weekend, they should move up to #2.

[Catbooster]

They should already be #2

[JSUSoutherner]

Here's what I got:

Lehigh @ Delaware vs. #1 James Madison
San Diego @ Weber State vs. #8 Southern Utah

Nicholls @ South Dakota vs. #5 South Dakota State
New Hampshire @ WIU vs. #4 Central Arkansas

UNI @ Montana vs. #2 North Dakota State
CCSU @ Stony Brook vs. #7 Sam Houston State

Elon @ Furman vs. #6 Wofford
Samford @ Kennesaw State vs. #3 Jax State

[BisonTru]

Your scenario also has SDSU beating USD. Going 1-4 to finish the season with no playoff history, I think USD stays home if they lose Saturday and if Montana wins, they are in.

Go post one team I don't have in my bracket that should be in over USD. And this isn't just for you. Any of the many people that feel USD is out with a loss can do the same.


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[BisonTru]

Here's what I got:

Lehigh @ Delaware vs. #1 James Madison
San Diego @ Weber State vs. #8 Southern Utah

Nicholls @ South Dakota vs. #5 South Dakota State
New Hampshire @ WIU vs. #4 Central Arkansas

UNI @ Montana vs. #2 North Dakota State
CCSU @ Stony Brook vs. #7 Sam Houston State

Elon @ Furman vs. #6 Wofford
Samford @ Kennesaw State vs. #3 Jax State

Looks good.

Edit: I'd prolly split up NSU and USD and send Nichols thru SHSU.


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[katss07]

Here's what I got:

Lehigh @ Delaware vs. #1 James Madison
San Diego @ Weber State vs. #8 Southern Utah

Nicholls @ South Dakota vs. #5 South Dakota State
New Hampshire @ WIU vs. #4 Central Arkansas

UNI @ Montana vs. #2 North Dakota State
CCSU @ Stony Brook vs. #7 Sam Houston State

Elon @ Furman vs. #6 Wofford
Samford @ Kennesaw State vs. #3 Jax State
This is an okay bracket, but no way the committee drops SHSU below Wofford. The Kats are already above them in the most recent ranking and the committee will keep them there unless you are telling me Wofford will win this weekend. Also, I would send Nicholls to SHSU round two, avoids an extra plane trip. Interesting to see you have the UNH vs UNI winner going to UCA. Would set up an interesting CAA/MVFC vs Southland game.

[JSUSoutherner]

This is an okay bracket, but no way the committee drops SHSU below Wofford. The Kats are already above them in the most recent ranking and the committee will keep them there unless you are telling me Wofford will win this weekend. Also, I would send Nicholls to SHSU round two, avoids an extra plane trip. Interesting to see you have the UNH vs UNI winner going to UCA. Would set up an interesting CAA/MVFC vs Southland game.
They will and here's why:

The new rule saying you can't have two conference seeds on the same side of the bracket.

SHSU will NOT jump SDSU. And NDSU will NOT jump JMU. Therefore NDSU gets a 2 or 3 seed (likely a 2) and forces SDSU into the 5 seed. SHSU won't fall to the 8 seed so UCA gets forced into the 4 seed.

That means JSU will be three.

Everyone in the Wofford/JSU section of the bracket except Elon is a bus trip away from JSU. They will value that moreso than SHSU's resume. That means they will seed Wofford to pair with JSU in the quarters to save themselves a few plane tickets.

6 and 7 are basically the same seed. They will take the cheapest route here.

[ST_Lawson]

Here's what I got:

Lehigh @ Delaware vs. #1 James Madison
San Diego @ Weber State vs. #8 Southern Utah

Nicholls @ South Dakota vs. #5 South Dakota State
New Hampshire @ WIU vs. #4 Central Arkansas

UNI @ Montana vs. #2 North Dakota State
CCSU @ Stony Brook vs. #7 Sam Houston State

Elon @ Furman vs. #6 Wofford
Samford @ Kennesaw State vs. #3 Jax State

I see one glaring error there....
UNH @ WIU should be WIU @ UNH

Pretty sure we wouldn't be outbidding UNH.

[JSUSoutherner]

I see one glaring error there....
UNH @ WIU should be WIU @ UNH

Pretty sure we wouldn't be outbidding UNH.

TBD. Still a plane trip either way. There's NO ONE around UCA.

[TheKingpin28]

They will and here's why:

The new rule saying you can't have two conference seeds on the same side of the bracket.

SHSU will NOT jump SDSU. And NDSU will NOT jump JMU. Therefore NDSU gets a 2 or 3 seed (likely a 2) and forces SDSU into the 5 seed. SHSU won't fall to the 8 seed so UCA gets forced into the 4 seed.

That means JSU will be three.

Everyone in the Wofford/JSU section of the bracket except Elon is a bus trip away from JSU. They will value that moreso than SHSU's resume. That means they will seed Wofford to pair with JSU in the quarters to save themselves a few plane tickets.

6 and 7 are basically the same seed. They will take the cheapest route here.

JMU
NDSU
JSU
UCA
SDSU
Wofford/SHSU
Wofford/SHSU
SUU

Count me in for this bracket! I would love to have SDSU and UCA on the other side with JMU and Wofford, SHSU and JSU on the NDSU side.

[BisonTru]

I see one glaring error there....
UNH @ WIU should be WIU @ UNH

Pretty sure we wouldn't be outbidding UNH.

No offense, but are you guys going to put in a bid at all this year. xembarrassedx:D

[Professor Chaos]

No offense, but are you guys going to put in a bid at all this year. xembarrassedx:D
With the way they've played on the road vs at home they probably shouldn't.

[DCWIU11]

With the way they've played on the road vs at home they probably shouldn't.

Totally agree, lets play on the road!

[ST_Lawson]

No offense, but are you guys going to put in a bid at all this year. xembarrassedx:D

Why would we? Only away game we've lost was at the Fargodome. ;)

Although I will admit, I would like to see a home playoff game again after 14 years of none.
The last home playoff game we played was against Western Kentucky...the year they won the championship...it was the "sledgehammer game" and the reason that all MVFC teams do a full-team handshake before each game.

[katss07]

They will and here's why:

The new rule saying you can't have two conference seeds on the same side of the bracket.

SHSU will NOT jump SDSU. And NDSU will NOT jump JMU. Therefore NDSU gets a 2 or 3 seed (likely a 2) and forces SDSU into the 5 seed. SHSU won't fall to the 8 seed so UCA gets forced into the 4 seed.

That means JSU will be three.

Everyone in the Wofford/JSU section of the bracket except Elon is a bus trip away from JSU. They will value that moreso than SHSU's resume. That means they will seed Wofford to pair with JSU in the quarters to save themselves a few plane tickets.

6 and 7 are basically the same seed. They will take the cheapest route here.

If SHSU is 6 and UCA is 4, they are not on the same side of the bracket. Why would they drop them all the way to 7? I know we think that the committee is cheap with their trips and bus rides (they are through round two) but in the quarterfinals they will try and create the best matchups. SHSU to Jacksonville and Wofford or SUU to Fargo.

[Gil Dobie]

Go post one team I don't have in my bracket that should be in over USD. And this isn't just for you. Any of the many people that feel USD is out with a loss can do the same.


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USD didn't look like a playoff team against NDSU, they look a lot like Missouri St with a better QB. Missouri St isn't as bad as their record, but USD isn't as good as their's, IMO. Any of your first 4 out, ISUR if them beat NDSU. The committee in the past has also put 2 OVC teams in, deserving or not.

[JSUSoutherner]

If SHSU is 6 and UCA is 4, they are not on the same side of the bracket. Why would they drop them all the way to 7? I know we think that the committee is cheap with their trips and bus rides (they are through round two) but in the quarterfinals they will try and create the best matchups. SHSU to Jacksonville and Wofford or SUU to Fargo.
Like I said, if they have the option to create another bus trip they will. Wofford is a bus trip.

[jmufan999]

The new rule saying you can't have two conference seeds on the same side of the bracket.

is this rule new for this year? because they did it last year with NDSU and SDSU being on the same side of the bracket. it would also mean that all of those predictions about 3 MVFC seeds from a few weeks ago were impossible. can't have 3 seeds and not have at least two on the same side of the bracket.

[JSUSoutherner]

is this rule new for this year? because they did it last year with NDSU and SDSU being on the same side of the bracket. it would also mean that all of those predictions about 3 MVFC seeds from a few weeks ago were impossible. can't have 3 seeds and not have at least two on the same side of the bracket.

I believe so.

I don't think the MVFC deserves three seeds anyway.

[Professor Chaos]

is this rule new for this year? because they did it last year with NDSU and SDSU being on the same side of the bracket. it would also mean that all of those predictions about 3 MVFC seeds from a few weeks ago were impossible. can't have 3 seeds and not have at least two on the same side of the bracket.
Yeah, I'm wondering about the whole 3 seeds from the same conference as well. To me that would be an incredibly dumb side effect of this rule. If a 3rd team from one conference has earned the right to a 1st round bye over their competition they should get it. I would hope the rule is applied in that if a conference has multiple seeded teams they can't be all on the same side of the bracket so if they do get 3 that means that one side has to have 2 since the other would only have 1.

Honestly, I'm sure this rule came about after the 2015 bracket was built when ISUr was seeded #2 and NDSU was seeded #3. The reason why all the MVFC schools got dumped on one side of the bracket was mainly because both MVFC seeds were on one side of the bracket so in order to maximize bus trips they had to pod MVFC teams together since there are very few OOC schools within bussing distance of MVFC schools, especially the western MVFC schools.


I believe so.

I don't think the MVFC deserves three seeds anyway.
So if NAU beats SUU who deserves that 8 seed over WIU?

[Professor Chaos]

USD didn't look like a playoff team against NDSU, they look a lot like Missouri St with a better QB. Missouri St isn't as bad as their record, but USD isn't as good as their's, IMO. Any of your first 4 out, ISUR if them beat NDSU. The committee in the past has also put 2 OVC teams in, deserving or not.
I think it's a little shortsighted to look at one game and say "Team X doesn't look like a playoff team" unless you've seen multiple games from that team and all the other teams competing for playoff at-large berths (and I'm not sure anyone has time for that). NDSU didn't look like a top 2 seed against SDSU either but if they win Saturday they damn well have earned it. The entire season should be considered when determining what teams are worthy of an at-large bid. I've never liked how late season losses are weighted more heavily by the playoff selection committee than early season losses. There just isn't enough games in a football season to segment it that much since you can have drastic swings in SOS. However, I recognize that it's a reality based on past decisions made by the selection committee... I hope it changes but doubt it will.

[JSUSoutherner]

Yeah, I'm wondering about the whole 3 seeds from the same conference as well. To me that would be an incredibly dumb side effect of this rule. If a 3rd team from one conference has earned the right to a 1st round bye over their competition they should get it. I would hope the rule is applied in that if a conference has multiple seeded teams they can't be all on the same side of the bracket so if they do get 3 that means that one side has to have 2 since the other would only have 1.

Honestly, I'm sure this rule came about after the 2015 bracket was built when ISUr was seeded #2 and NDSU was seeded #3. The reason why all the MVFC schools got dumped on one side of the bracket was mainly because both MVFC seeds were on one side of the bracket so in order to maximize bus trips they had to pod MVFC teams together since there are very few OOC schools within bussing distance of MVFC schools, especially the western MVFC schools.


So if NAU beats SUU who deserves that 8 seed over WIU?

Valid. But that's a big if, IMO.

I would also note that WIU's W is not guaranteed either. The Leathernecks have been riding the struggle bus at home and they've had their hands full with SIU each time they've played over the past couple years.

[katss07]

I think the committee might give Stony Brook a seed if WIU, SUU lose.

[JSUSoutherner]

I think the committee might give Stony Brook a seed if WIU, SUU lose.
CAA won't get it unless JMU loses.

With JMU @ 1, a second CAA would have to be a 6 or 7 seed. And those spots are already occupied.

Thereoretically they could stick Wofford at 8 and have SHSU and a CAA as 6 and 7 but I'm willing to bet the farm that's not going to be the case.

[Professor Chaos]

Valid. But that's a big if, IMO.

I would also note that WIU's W is not guaranteed either. The Leathernecks have been riding the struggle bus at home and they've had their hands full with SIU each time they've played over the past couple years.
SIU is kind of in shambles without their starting QB since the USD game. I agree that if WIU even struggles with them I'd probably have to re-evaluate it but if SUU does lose it probably comes down to SBU, Weber St, and WIU (as long as they all win). I'd argue WIU is most deserving but I think all 3 would have arguments.

[kalm]

SIU is kind of in shambles without their starting QB since the USD game. I agree that if WIU even struggles with them I'd probably have to re-evaluate it but if SUU does lose it probably comes down to SBU, Weber St, and WIU (as long as they all win). I'd argue WIU is most deserving but I think all 3 would have arguments.

Weber is playing really well and would have just a close loss to Cal, a loss to ranked SUU, with wins over Montana, EWU, and SAC.

[JSUSoutherner]

I think in the event of a WIU and SUU loss this week we are most likely to see Weber move into the 8 seed.

[ST_Lawson]

My assumption for us getting a seed is:

WIU needs to win...ideally bigly
Stony Brook needs to lose to Maine
Southern Utah needs to lose to Northern Arizona
Ideally, Wofford gets absolutely steamrolled by South Carolina (like...no way you could consider it even "competitive")

That stuff happens, I think we get #8. If only a couple of those happen...idk.

[Professor Chaos]

Weber is playing really well and would have just a close loss to Cal, a loss to ranked SUU, with wins over Montana, EWU, and SAC.
Yeah, that's kind of dependent on how that Montana/Montana St game goes IMO. Having a win over playoff bound 8-3 Montana would look a lot better than having a win over playoff bubble 7-4 Montana and EWU I think.

Also, do you know how the autobid works if NAU beats SUU so they tie with Weber St for the Big Sky title at 7-1? Both teams would've beat the team that the other lost to (Weber beat Montana and lost to SUU - NAU would've beat SUU and lost to Montana) so record against common opponents would be the same. I guess it would come down to who finishes higher between Montana and SUU? If SUU finishes higher NAU is the auto and if Montana finishes higher Weber is the auto.

EDIT: Taking that Big Sky auto discussion further Montana and SUU have a common opponent in EWU that SUU beat and Montana lost to so it seems to me that Montana can't finish ahead of SUU and therefore Weber can't get the Big Sky auto since they'd have a head-to-head loss against SUU and lose the tie breaker with NAU which is the two teams they could potentially tie with. My whole point behind this is if WIU beat the Big Sky auto in NAU does that give them a leg up on Weber St who lost the tie breaker to NAU for the Big Sky auto?

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't think that Wofford losing to South Carolina will impact seeding. Last year the Citadel lost 41-7 to North Carolina and maintained their #6 position


Also Wofford AD Richard Johnson is the chair of the selection committee:D

[JSUSoutherner]

My assumption for us getting a seed is:

WIU needs to win...ideally bigly
Stony Brook needs to lose to Maine
Southern Utah needs to lose to Northern Arizona
Ideally, Wofford gets absolutely steamrolled by South Carolina (like...no way you could consider it even "competitive")

That stuff happens, I think we get #8. If only a couple of those happen...idk.
I think all you need is for SUU, Weber, and SB to lose. Wofford will get a seed whether USC hands them their own ass or not.

[ST_Lawson]

I don't think that Wofford losing to South Carolina will impact seeding. Last year the Citadel lost 41-7 to North Carolina and maintained their #6 position


Also Wofford AD Richard Johnson is the chair of the selection committee:D

Yea, I'm not counting on that one being much of a factor likely. Just kinda looking at the teams ahead of us and the ones that have a chance at losing their final game.

[TheKingpin28]

I don't think that Wofford losing to South Carolina will impact seeding. Last year the Citadel lost 41-7 to North Carolina and maintained their #6 position


Also Wofford AD Richard Johnson is the chair of the selection committee:D

Exactly, so he cannot be in the room or talk about Wofford at all during the selection process.

[Reign of Terrier]

Exactly, so he cannot be in the room or talk about Wofford at all during the selection process.

https://www.google.com/search?ei=6g8LWsrmLcnamAGkkKvIDg&q=joke+definition&oq=joke+definition&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0i131k1j0l3j0i22i10i30k1j0i22i30k1l5.2321.35 95.0.3885.11.9.0.0.0.0.428.658.1j1j4-1.3.0....0...1.1.64.psy-ab..8.3.658...0i67k1j0i20i264k1.0.5n3t3LHDazU

[SU FAN]

Hope he is good for other SoCon schools however

[JSUSoutherner]

Hope he is good for other SoCon schools however
Even if he isn't it's hard for me to think Greg Seitz wouldn't push to get Samford a bid.

[jmufan999]

Yeah, I'm wondering about the whole 3 seeds from the same conference as well. To me that would be an incredibly dumb side effect of this rule. If a 3rd team from one conference has earned the right to a 1st round bye over their competition they should get it. I would hope the rule is applied in that if a conference has multiple seeded teams they can't be all on the same side of the bracket so if they do get 3 that means that one side has to have 2 since the other would only have 1.

yeah this makes sense. I doubt (hope??) that they wouldn't keep a 3rd conference team out for that reason alone. i'm thinking they just weren't anticipating it being an issue, and it usually won't be an issue anyway.

[katss07]

CAA won't get it unless JMU loses.

With JMU @ 1, a second CAA would have to be a 6 or 7 seed. And those spots are already occupied.

Thereoretically they could stick Wofford at 8 and have SHSU and a CAA as 6 and 7 but I'm willing to bet the farm that's not going to be the case.

This would make sense. If they end up dropping Wofford to 8, I could see things falling that way. If Elon were to beat JMU, would Elon move back into the rankings at 7, 6 or even 5?

[jacksfan29]

USD didn't look like a playoff team against NDSU, they look a lot like Missouri St with a better QB. Missouri St isn't as bad as their record, but USD isn't as good as their's, IMO. Any of your first 4 out, ISUR if them beat NDSU. The committee in the past has also put 2 OVC teams in, deserving or not.

If USD loses Saturday they need to hope Montana, NAU and Nicholl's State all lose and that the committee does not take both Samford and Furman.

One win in your final 5 games, no matter how difficult your schedule is will not get it done. MVFC fans all think the difficulty of our league trumps all, it doesn't. The committee cares about how you finish. There are too many 7-4, 8-3 and even 9-2 teams out there this year for USD to have that type of end to the season and still expect an invite based on conference affiliation and a single win over WIU. I'm pretty sure that USD are in a must win situation Saturday. Close won't cut it, they need to beat SDSU.

As for ISUr, if they beat the Bison on Saturday, they are a lock, they lose they are out.

[Professor Chaos]

If USD loses Saturday they need to hope Montana, NAU and Nicholl's State all lose and that the committee does not take both Samford and Furman.

One win in your final 5 games, no matter how difficult your schedule is will not get it done. MVFC fans all think the difficulty of our league trumps all, it doesn't. The committee cares about how you finish. There are too many 7-4, 8-3 and even 9-2 teams out there this year for USD to have that type of end to the season and still expect an invite based on conference affiliation and a single win over WIU. I'm pretty sure that USD are in a must win situation Saturday. Close won't cut it, they need to beat SDSU.

As for ISUr, if they beat the Bison on Saturday, they are a lock, they lose they are out.
I don't think USD is in a must-win scenario. I do think they need to avoid another blowout but if they lose fairly closely they would need some help but not a ton to stay in the field IMO. They also can get help from the CAA bubble teams like Delaware and UNH who have road games at Nova and Albany, respectively. As far as Furman/Samford I think it would be better for them if Samford loses. They should stack up favorably with a 7-4 (with a D2 win) Samford.

[jmufan999]

They also can get help from the CAA bubble teams like Delaware and UNH who have road games at Nova and Albany, respectively.

you can cross those two off, UD and UNH are not losing. Nova has completely packed it in, even on defense. Albany's just not good.

[Gangtackle11]

you can cross those two off, UD and UNH are not losing. Nova has completely packed it in, even on defense. Albany's just not good.

Probably, but stranger things have happened in our rivalry game.

[SactoHornetFan]

If USD loses Saturday they need to hope Montana, NAU and Nicholl's State all lose and that the committee does not take both Samford and Furman.

One win in your final 5 games, no matter how difficult your schedule is will not get it done. MVFC fans all think the difficulty of our league trumps all, it doesn't. The committee cares about how you finish. There are too many 7-4, 8-3 and even 9-2 teams out there this year for USD to have that type of end to the season and still expect an invite based on conference affiliation and a single win over WIU. I'm pretty sure that USD are in a must win situation Saturday. Close won't cut it, they need to beat SDSU.

As for ISUr, if they beat the Bison on Saturday, they are a lock, they lose they are out.

See this is why I think if Sac State beats UCD, they will have won 5 out of their last 6 and finish 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win over SUU. I don't care how the schedule laid out, that's dang impressive for a team that went 2-9 the past two years. If USD loses, I could see the scenario where SAC could look more favorable than USD. Plus the Yotes would be 4-4 in league play, not exactly what the committee wants to see in playoff teams.

[PaladinFan]

I don't think USD is in a must-win scenario. I do think they need to avoid another blowout but if they lose fairly closely they would need some help but not a ton to stay in the field IMO. They also can get help from the CAA bubble teams like Delaware and UNH who have road games at Nova and Albany, respectively. As far as Furman/Samford I think it would be better for them if Samford loses. They should stack up favorably with a 7-4 (with a D2 win) Samford.

My general feeling is the winner of the Furman/Samford game is a lock.

If a loser, Furman's chances of making the field as a 7-4 team are better than Samford's.

[kalm]

See this is why I think if Sac State beats UCD, they will have won 5 out of their last 6 and finish 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win over SUU. I don't care how the schedule laid out, that's dang impressive for a team that went 2-9 the past two years. If USD loses, I could see the scenario where SAC could look more favorable than USD. Plus the Yotes would be 4-4 in league play, not exactly what the committee wants to see in playoff teams.

The problem for SAC is they'd potentially be tied with two other 7-4 BSC teams they lost to in EWU and NAU. If Montana wins, that's 5 BSC teams ahead of them with either W/L and or head to head. Hard to imagine the BSC gets more than 4, let alone 5 or 6.

Sac needs 2 of those 3 to lose plus help elsewhere.

[katss07]

See this is why I think if Sac State beats UCD, they will have won 5 out of their last 6 and finish 6-2 in the Big Sky with a win over SUU. I don't care how the schedule laid out, that's dang impressive for a team that went 2-9 the past two years. If USD loses, I could see the scenario where SAC could look more favorable than USD. Plus the Yotes would be 4-4 in league play, not exactly what the committee wants to see in playoff teams.
I agree with this here. Sacramento State belongs in the field if they beat UC Davis. If EWU had the resume and wins that Sac St has this year, no one would think twice about putting them in the playoffs! Not only have the Hornets beat (KILLED) the best BSC team but they are a hot team. They were good in conference play. I think Sac St should be in the playoffs this weekend if
1. USD loses
2. The loser of KS-M gets blown out
3. Illinois St loses
4. Delaware, UNH or Montana lose

If all of these happen they should be in.

[The Pud]

Lots of playoff talk going on...time for some bracketology...<br>
<br>
<strong><u>The Bracket:</u></strong> <br>
Lehigh at Delaware vs 1. JMU<br>
San Diego at Weber State vs 8. SUU<br>
<br>
South Dakota at Montana vs 5. SDSU<br>
WIU at Stony Brook vs 4. UCA<br>
<br>
Elon at McNeese State vs 3. JSU <br>
Nicholls at Northern Iowa vs 6. SHSU<br>
<br>
Kennesaw State at Furman vs 7. Wofford<br>
CCSU at UNH vs 2. NDSU<br>
<br>
<br>
<strong><u>Autobid(10): </u></strong><br>
Big Sky: SUU<br>
Big South: Kennesaw State <br>
CAA: JMU<br>
MVFC: NDSU<br>
<strong>NEC: CCSU<br>
OVC: JSU</strong><br>
Patriot: Lehigh<br>
<strong>Pioneer: San Diego<br>
SoCon: Wofford</strong><br>
SLC: UCA<br>
<br>
<br>
<u><strong>At-Large(14)</strong></u><br>
Big Sky: Weber State, Montana<br>
CAA: Elon, Delaware, Stony Brook, UNH<br>
MVFC: WIU, SDSU, UNI, USD<br>
SoCon: Furman<br>
SLC: SHSU, Nicholls State, McNeese State<br>
<br>
<br>
<strong>Bubble:</strong> Samford, NAU, EWU, WCU, Ill State, Monmouth, Sac State, Austin Peay, Eastern Illinois <br>
<br>
<br>
<strong><em>Teams in bold have clinched an autobid</em></strong><br>
<font color="silver"><font size="1">-</font></font><br>

<br>JMU is the favourite to win it all in my opinion based on the solid year they have had.&nbsp;&nbsp; I think NDSU is a solid pick for #2 based on their strong SOS.<br><br>It is cool to see the Southland Conference finally getting some respect with potential of placing 4 teams in the playoffs; however, I know this probably won't happen.&nbsp; Maybe next year?<br>

[BisonTru]

If a 7-4 USD team gets snubbed for 7-4 Sac State the committee should all resign and take positions bagging groceries.

[katss07]

<br>

<br>JMU is the favourite to win it all in my opinion based on the solid year they have had.&nbsp;&nbsp; I think NDSU is a solid pick for #2 based on their strong SOS.<br><br>It is cool to see the Southland Conference finally getting some respect with potential of placing 4 teams in the playoffs; however, I know this probably won't happen.&nbsp; Maybe next year?<br>

4 teams in the playoffs is realistic! I don’t think the committee will put in McNeese if Nicholls wins Thursday Night against SELA, but it could happen. If Nicholls loses, I could see McNeese St getting their spot, but I think Nicholls will win and get in. With two Southland teams seeded though, Nicholls will have to go to UCA or SHSU round 2. UCA has been great and SHSU killed them at home in week 4.

Do I think the committee should give McNeese a spot? Yes! Will they? Meh, probably not...

[BisonTru]

https://i1.wp.com/thefcswedge.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/AGS-Bracket.png

Read more: http://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/2017-1114-week-11-ags-fcs-bracket/

[katss07]

I would love for this to happen! This bracket is an ideal scenario, many potential great games. My only issue is how far out Nicholls is. I’m okay with people not thinking they are a playoff team. They sure as hell didn’t look like it for more than a few minutes that Saturday Night against SHSU. But they are a better team the McNeese, a team they beat. I think they should be in the field. I guess maybe this bracket is banking on them losing the SELA.

Also, I think the committee would avoid a rematch between NAU and SUU in round 2. They will have just played each other. Switch that and the Montana vs South Dakota game.

[BisonTru]

I would love for this to happen! This bracket is an ideal scenario, many potential great games. My only issue is how far out Nicholls is. I’m okay with people not thinking they are a playoff team. They sure as hell didn’t look like it for more than a few minutes that Saturday Night against SHSU. But they are a better team the McNeese, a team they beat. I think they should be in the field. I guess maybe this bracket is banking on them losing the SELA.

Also, I think the committee would avoid a rematch between NAU and SUU in round 2. They will have just played each other. Switch that and the Montana vs South Dakota game.

The bracket is based of the AGS poll. McNeese has been higher in the poll for a while now.

On your second line, no, USD to SDSU is a bus trip and so is NAU to SUU. They will maximize bus trips within the guidelines.

[JSUSoutherner]

I would love for this to happen!.

Me too. It be funnier than hell to watch UNI tear you guys a new one. :D

JSU sitting over there in the corner of death. WIU, SDSU, and USD. Woof.

NDSU fans sure as hell cant use the "You guys got the easy side of the bracket!" argument with that one.

[katss07]

Me too. It be funnier than hell to watch UNI tear you guys a new one. :D

JSU sitting over there in the corner of death. WIU, SDSU, and USD. Woof.

Im confident my Bearkats could beat UNI...although go Weber State!

You guys would have a tough time with that bracket. MVFC heavy.

[JSUSoutherner]

Im confident my Bearkats could beat UNI...although go Weber State!

You guys would have a tough time with that bracket. MVFC heavy.
I'd take that bet.

And yeah. That pathway to Frisco for us would be brutal. WIU, SDSU, and JMU? Pass.

#WeWantCCSU xlolx

[McNeese75]

I would love for this to happen! This bracket is an ideal scenario, many potential great games. My only issue is how far out Nicholls is. I’m okay with people not thinking they are a playoff team. They sure as hell didn’t look like it for more than a few minutes that Saturday Night against SHSU. But they are a better team the McNeese, a team they beat. I think they should be in the field. I guess maybe this bracket is banking on them losing the SELA.



Also, I think the committee would avoid a rematch between NAU and SUU in round 2. They will have just played each other. Switch that and the Montana vs South Dakota game.

I disagree, Nicholls is NOT better than McNeese. But if they win thursday night then I agree they certainly deserve the 3 spot if there is one to be had.

[kalm]

If a 7-4 USD team gets snubbed for 7-4 Sac State the committee should all resign and take positions bagging groceries.

Agreed. Wins against WIU and BG > wins over SUU and Davis. Sac needed one more quality win to get past USD.

Sac needs EWU, UM, NAU, Nichols, and perhaps a UD or UNH to lose.

I do think they have an argument against Nichols, McNeese, and the Big South runner up. Not saying that would happen though.

[katss07]

I disagree, Nicholls is NOT better than McNeese. But if they win thursday night then I agree they certainly deserve the 3 spot if there is one to be had.

McNeese might be improved, but they blew a chance to show they were really the better team in the season opener. Obviously things have changed but if the records are both 9-2, the committee will look right at the h2h. McNeese won that game in every aspect except the score, but a loss is a loss.

And I still think Nicholls St is better.

[ST_Lawson]

#WeWantCCSU xlolx

Pretty sure everybody wants CCSU.

[PantherRob82]

McNeese might be improved, but they blew a chance to show they were really the better team in the season opener. Obviously things have changed but if the records are both 9-2, the committee will look right at the h2h. McNeese won that game in every aspect except the score, but a loss is a loss.

And I still think Nicholls St is better.

Im not sure a one point game in Week 1 will be the deciding factoe

[katss07]

Im not sure a one point game in Week 1 will be the deciding factoe

Two comparable teams with the same record. Same conference. Each team has a loss to a top conference team on the road. One beat the other in the head to head. Are you taking the loser?

[dwtime]

It may work that way, but there has been a precedent to match the schools that are closest together. In 2010, many thought SCSU would be matched against Coastal Carolina. They were instead sent to Ga. Southern.

But when you looked at the difference in mileage:

Orangeburg to Statesboro: 98 miles.
Orangeburg to Conway: 127 miles.


Stony Brook to Central Connecticut State: 71. 1 miles
Central Connecticut State to UNH (Durham): 168.5 miles
Stony Brook U to Monmouth U: 112 miles
Delaware to Monmouth U: 118 miles
Lehigh to Delaware: 88.2 miles
Monmouth to Lehigh: 95.2 miles

So if all six advance to play in the opening round:

Lehigh @ U of Delaware
Central Connecticut State @ Stony Brook

Monmouth and UNH are the odd ones out. They'll probably be matched with each other since that also falls within a bus trip (324 miles).

IMO

Can't use miles when traveling in New England, that 71 miles to Stony Brook includes a slow boat ride across Long Island Sound. Basically takes 2 1/2 hours to get to Stony Brook or UNH so its a push.

[thebootfitter]

Can't use miles when traveling in New England, that 71 miles to Stony Brook includes a slow boat ride across Long Island Sound. Basically takes 2 1/2 hours to get to Stony Brook or UNH so its a push.Pretty sure the guidelines don't consider that. Maybe the committee would, but it is still under 400 miles.

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[kalm]

Two comparable teams with the same record. Same conference. Each team has a loss to a top conference team on the road. One beat the other in the head to head. Are you taking the loser?

The best win between them was that first game. If Nichols beats SELA Thursday the only other win against a team with a winning record is Alcorn. And they have SOS's in the 70 range of FCS. That's why even Kennesaw is ahead of them in Massey.

[ST_Lawson]

Can't use miles when traveling in New England, that 71 miles to Stony Brook includes a slow boat ride across Long Island Sound. Basically takes 2 1/2 hours to get to Stony Brook or UNH so its a push.

Ok....2 1/2 hours is still well within range. That's a bus drive...hell, teams coming to Macomb fly into an airport only slightly closer than that and drive to Macomb the morning of the game.

[katss07]

The best win between them was that first game. If Nichols beats SELA Thursday the only other win against a team with a winning record is Alcorn. And they have SOS's in the 70 range of FCS. That's why even Kennesaw is ahead of them in Massey.

I couldn’t care less about Massey. Nicholls can’t help their schedule but they can win the games on it. Could they beat Kennesaw? I don’t know, maybe. We could get that answer on Thanksgiving weekend. I think Nicholls would KILL Kennesaw, but I couldn’t tell you for sure.

Nicholls has a win against McNeese, a AGS Top 25 team and a “good loss” against Texas A&M. Southeastern is no push over, so that would be a quality victory. Nicholls IMO is better than McNeese, but one of them will make the playoffs. If Nicholls loses, it should be the Cowboys. If they win, I expect Nicholls to make it.

[McNeese72]

But they are a better team the McNeese, a team they beat. .

Most McNeese fans don't think they are now even though we lost to them. We beat them every which way but on the scoreboard that first game. We had some breakdowns in the redzone and had some young DB's starting their first gams bust a couple of coverages. We handed the game to them on a silver platter. If it wasn't the first game of the season on a fricking Thursday night, McNeese wins. McNeese's defense is way better now than that first game of the season. I am not a fan of playing a conference game the first game of the season. I blame Arkansas (who we were supposed to play), Nicholls for being hard nosed about it being a Thursday night game, and our AD for agreeing to it.

Doc

[kalm]

I couldn’t care less about Massey. Nicholls can’t help their schedule but they can win the games on it. Could they beat Kennesaw? I don’t know, maybe. We could get that answer on Thanksgiving weekend. I think Nicholls would KILL Kennesaw, but I couldn’t tell you for sure.

Nicholls has a win against McNeese, a AGS Top 25 team and a “good loss” against Texas A&M. Southeastern is no push over, so that would be a quality victory. Nicholls IMO is better than McNeese, but one of them will make the playoffs. If Nicholls loses, it should be the Cowboys. If they win, I expect Nicholls to make it.

You don't have to care about Massey but the fact that between these two teams there will probably be two wins against winning teams in an an almost exclusive FCS schedule of 22 games should give you some pause.

[melloware13]

Pretty sure everybody wants CCSU.
I'll take a 5-6 Lehigh any day

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I'll take a 5-6 Lehigh any day

I actually think a Lehigh-UD game would be competitive. Lehigh's offense is legit so it would be a great battle against the tough UD defense. Lehigh's defense is atrocious but the UD "O" is marginal at best. Lehigh was once upon a time a preseason Top 25 team so there is this underlying potential that exists. Bottom line, both squads still have to survive rivals this week...

[UpstateBison]

When was the last time a 7-4 team made it to the championship game?

[aceinthehole]

Pretty sure everybody wants CCSU.

Hey, Lehigh will have a losing record and I would think San Diego would also be ranked/projected below CCSU.

:)

[McNeese72]

You don't have to care about Massey but the fact that between these two teams there will probably be two wins against winning teams in an an almost exclusive FCS schedule of 22 games should give you some pause.

It's hard to control that when the conference forces us to play 9 games in conference. Also, we were supposed to play Arkansas not Florida Tech this season but that got screwed up and we had to scramble to find a game with Florida Tech.

Doc

[Roll 'gate]

I actually think a Lehigh-UD game would be competitive. Lehigh's offense is legit so it would be a great battle against the tough UD defense. Lehigh's defense is atrocious but the UD "O" is marginal at best. Lehigh was once upon a time a preseason Top 25 team so there is this underlying potential that exists. Bottom line, both squads still have to survive rivals this week...

Once upon a time Cal Poly (as the Raiders found out) along with a bunch of other teams were preseason top 25 teams. The preseason top 25 is as worthless as a poopy flavored lolly pop once you get outside of the top 10. There's a reason why lehigh went 0-5 ooc ... UD is better than most all those teams as well.

[aceinthehole]

I actually think a Lehigh-UD game would be competitive. Lehigh's offense is legit so it would be a great battle against the tough UD defense. Lehigh's defense is atrocious but the UD "O" is marginal at best. Lehigh was once upon a time a preseason Top 25 team so there is this underlying potential that exists. Bottom line, both squads still have to survive rivals this week...

Why? And why wasn't Saint Francis or Duquesne afforded the same projection?

Lehigh is atrocious on defense. Wagner put up a season high 37 points in regulation against the Hawks and D-II Assumption. Though 10 games played, Lehigh would be 21+ underdog to Delaware. You gave up 65 points to Penn and 35 points to Georgetown. Other than being a fan, what reason do you have for being that optimistic about playing the Hens in the playoffs?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Once upon a time Cal Poly (as the Raiders found out) along with a bunch of other teams were preseason top 25 teams. The preseason top 25 is as worthless as a poopy flavored lolly pop once you get outside of the top 10. There's a reason why lehigh went 0-5 ooc ... UD is better than most all those teams as well.

My point was that Lehigh's offense makes them a possible headache in the playoffs. Plus, most of Lehigh's players have the experience of last year's debacle against UNH. At the end of the day a moral victory is the best Lehigh can hope for. I don't believe a sub .500 team should be eligible for the playoffs but it is what it is. I'll be shocked if Lehigh suffers the worst 1st round loss. Last year's nightmare won't replicate itself imo. Playing the odds on that one...

[katss07]

Most McNeese fans don't think they are now even though we lost to them. We beat them every which way but on the scoreboard that first game. We had turnovers in the redzone and had some young DB's starting their first gams bust a couple of coverages. We handed the game to them on a silver platter. If it wasn't the first game of the season on a fricking Thursday night, McNeese wins. McNeese's defense is way better now than that first game of the season. I am not a fan of playing a conference game the first game of the season. I blame Arkansas (who we were supposed to play), Nicholls for being hard nosed about it being a Thursday night game, and our AD for agreeing to it.

Doc

Doc

I definitely agree that McNeese was the better team that night. But Nicholls did what was necessary to win. Sure, McNeese might be the better team now. But the SOS really holds them back. The SELA win really helped, because if it wasn’t I don’t know if you would be in the conversation. McNeese lost their two most important game, UCA and Nicholls.

[melloware13]

When was the last time a 7-4 team made it to the championship game?
As far as I can tell, Marshall in 1987.

[kalm]

It's hard to control that when the conference forces us to play 9 games in conference. Also, we were supposed to play Arkansas not Florida Tech this season but that got screwed up and we had to scramble to find a game with Florida Tech.

Doc

Fully acknowledged but none of that should have any bearing on selections.

[ngineer]

Why? And why wasn't Saint Francis or Duquesne afforded the same projection?

Lehigh is atrocious on defense. Wagner put up a season high 37 points in regulation against the Hawks and D-II Assumption. Though 10 games played, Lehigh would be 21+ underdog to Delaware. You gave up 65 points to Penn and 35 points to Georgetown. Other than being a fan, what reason do you have for being that optimistic about playing the Hens in the playoffs?

First some scores are misleading. While the Penn game was a pinball game disaster, a lot of the Georgetown points were late. The defense has gone through a lot of injuries and a number of players are getting experience, so what we are seeing in November is a more experienced unit that has taken longer than anyone would have liked to get into their schemes. A number of true freshman playing. While there is no question we have been overall bad on defense, I have seen the unit playing much better over the past three weeks. With Lehigh's offense, they are always a threat for putting some decent points on the board. With some turnovers, I can see Lehigh giving a team like Delaware, who has a very good defense, but a mediocre offense, a very competitive game. Delaware would certainly be favored, but I would give Lehigh a 33% chance of getting a win. Definitely prefer a trip to New Ark than Dover, NH or Stony Brook, LI. One additional element is Lehigh's punter/pk, Ed Mish. He can really help flip field position with his punts.

[McNeese75]

Fully acknowledged but none of that should have any bearing on selections.

It wont but then again a lot of the predictions on this board will have no bearing on the selection process either (although those that make them seem to think they are cast in stone xlolx)

[Professor Chaos]

I thought this interview STATS did with the selection committee chair was an interesting read: http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20171116103252929290604&ref=rec&tm=&src=FCS&sf173396251=1

Of particular note I think Austin Peay might be in a tough spot when it comes to at large consideration based on this comment by the committee chair:


STATS: Is a loss to an FBS opponent ever considered a negative?

RJ: Again, each committee member has to value that. I think a single loss, all of us at the FCS level typically play one FBS opponent, and I think for the most part we have not paid any attention to a single loss to an FBS team. We certainly paid attention to a win over an FBS team and to a close game against an FBS team. Just as a general rule, it hasn't negatively impacted anybody in the past by losing to an FBS opponent. Where it would get into negatively impacting someone is if you played three of those games or four because now you have four losses and you make the argument that you got beat by all FBS teams, but you also then didn't have the opportunity to play FCS teams and beat them. That's where it would hurt you, if you played multiple FBS opponents as opposed to just the one.
That really only applies to one team anywhere near the bubble this year and that's APSU.

[PantherRob82]

Two comparable teams with the same record. Same conference. Each team has a loss to a top conference team on the road. One beat the other in the head to head. Are you taking the loser?

I think McNeese is a better team today than Nicholls

[Professor Chaos]

Here's an interesting hypothetical... what happens if Elon stuns us all and beats JMU?

Does JMU drop the #1 seed? They'd still have an argument for it but so would NDSU, UCA, and JSU probably.
Who drops from the seeds? JMU isn't dropping out and Elon would certainly be seeded as the CAA auto in that scenario. So does Wofford or SUU drop out?

[JSUSoutherner]

Here's an interesting hypothetical... what happens if Elon stuns us all and beats JMU?

Does JMU drop the #1 seed? They'd still have an argument for it but so would NDSU, UCA, and JSU probably.
Who drops from the seeds? JMU isn't dropping out and Elon would certainly be seeded as the CAA auto in that scenario. So does Wofford or SUU drop out?

The only scenario that gives JSU or UCA the #1 seed is if the Dukes and the Bison both lose.

[Professor Chaos]

The only scenario that gives JSU or UCA the #1 seed is if the Dukes and the Bison both lose.
Probably. Personally, I'd drop JMU to #3 in that scenario below both NDSU and UCA (assuming both win). Elon would probably fit in at #7 bumping Wofford out of the seeds (as long as they lose to South Carolina) with SUU at #8 (as long as they beat NAU).

[JSUSoutherner]

Probably. Personally, I'd drop JMU to #3 in that scenario below both NDSU and UCA (assuming both win). Elon would probably fit in at #7 bumping Wofford out of the seeds (as long as they lose to South Carolina) with SUU at #8 (as long as they beat NAU).
If the Bison lose they don't deserve a top 4 seed.

If JMU loses, depending on how badly, a case can be made that they keep a #1 ranking. Unless UCA or JSU just skulldrags whoever their playing.

JMU would be a 10-1 team like UCA and JSU. UCA might hop to 1 but JSU won't hop JMU and shouldn't unless JMU just gets blown TF out.

Even with a loss to Elon JMU has a very good overall resume.


Lots of hypotheticals and moving parts.

[katss07]

I think McNeese is a better team today than Nicholls
The more I think about it, the more I question if Nicholls is still the better team. If Nicholls loses tonight, then I think McNeese has a good shot to make it. I’m sure they would be sent to SHSU though, the two didn’t play in the regular season and McNeese is close to Huntsville.

[Professor Chaos]

If the Bison lose they don't deserve a top 4 seed.

If JMU loses, depending on how badly, a case can be made that they keep a #1 ranking. Unless UCA or JSU just skulldrags whoever their playing.

JMU would be a 10-1 team like UCA and JSU. UCA might hop to 1 but JSU won't hop JMU and shouldn't unless JMU just gets blown TF out.

Even with a loss to Elon JMU has a very good overall resume.


Lots of hypotheticals and moving parts.
Yeah, with a loss the Bison are still seeded but drop to #6 (behind JMU, UCA, JSU, SHSU, and SDSU) and maybe further. So I'd go with this for best case/worst case scenarios for all of the seed contenders.

JMU: Best case - beat Elon and they're the clear #1. Worst case - lose to Elon and fall potentially to #4 behind NDSU, UCA, and JSU.
NDSU: Best case - beat ISUr and lock up a top 2 seed. Worst case - lose to ISUr and drop to #6 or potentially lower if Wofford beats South Carolina.
UCA: Best case - JMU and/or NDSU lose and they move into the top 2 seeds (but maybe not before JSU does?). Worst case - well they're not losing so worst case is probably that JMU and NDSU both win and they get stuck at #4 behind JSU.
JSU: Best case - JMU and/or NDSU lose and they move into the top 2 seeds (but maybe not before UCA does?). Worst case - they're not losing either so it's the same as UCA except they could be #4 behind UCA as well depending on how the committee looks at it
SHSU: Best case - NDSU loses and they move up to #4. Worst case - they're not losing either but if NDSU wins and SDSU wins they could drop to #6 depending on how the committee thinks they stack up with SDSU.
SDSU: Best case - NDSU loses and the committee moves them up to #4 in front of SHSU. Worst case - they lose to USD because there's pretty much no way they get seeded in that scenario.
Wofford: Best case - They beat South Carolina and SDSU and NDSU both lose meaning they could even move in front of SHSU for #4. Worst case - they lose to South Carolina and Elon beats JMU potentially knocking them out of the seeds.
SUU: Best case - They beat NAU, Wofford loses to South Carolina, and SDSU loses to USD moving them potentially up to #6. Worst case - they lose to NAU or Elon beats JMU potentially knocking them out of the seeds.
Stony Brook/Weber/WIU: Best case - they're the only one of the 3 to win and SUU loses to NAU popping them up to #8. Worst case - That doesn't happen and they play Thanksgiving weekend.

[ElonFirefighter]

Here's an interesting hypothetical... what happens if Elon stuns us all and beats JMU?

Does JMU drop the #1 seed? They'd still have an argument for it but so would NDSU, UCA, and JSU probably.
Who drops from the seeds? JMU isn't dropping out and Elon would certainly be seeded as the CAA auto in that scenario. So does Wofford or SUU drop out?The only way Elon is auto is if SB looses. If Elon wins and the conference ends in a three way JMU gets the Auto

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