Socon Week 11 pick em and power rankings

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I was 2-2 today. It appears rumors of Kyrie Adams being done for the season were greatly exaggerated. Here's where I have it after today.

1) Wofford (IN*) - Survived another spirited effort
2) Western Carolina (IN) - Clawed their way into a playoff bid
3) Furman (1 of 2) - Rested up for their final two games
4) Samford (1 of 2) - Kept their playoff hopes alive one more week
5) Mercer (OUT) - Was denied the chance to play spoiler
6) The Citadel (OUT) - Played "Taps" regarding their playoff bid after their loss
7) ETSU (OUT) - Bucs picked up their first win in awhile
8) Chattanooga (OUT) - Showed more pride in the last two weeks than their bigger brothers from Knoxville did all season
9) VMI (OUT) - Became the fourth conference team to lose to ETSU since the Bucs' return

* Unless some sense, semblance, miracle or the grace of God VMI shocks the conference world next week, Wofford has the autobid

Predictions
Wofford @ VMI - Terriers officially stick a fork in the race for the autobid
The Citadel @ Furman (Game of the Week) - Paladins keep their title hopes alive
Mercer @ Western Carolina - Catamounts put away the Bears
ETSU @ Samford (Upset Special of the Week) - Bucs steal one on the road

Path to the Southern Conference Championship
Wofford - wins the autobid with win @ VMI (no pressure here) and sole possession of conference title with Furman loss @ The Citadel
Furman - are VMI fans this week as they need to win out and VMI to beat Wofford to win autobid, can still claim share of conference title simply by winning out
Western Carolina/Samford - can claim share of conference title by winning out and VMI beating Wofford

In event of four way tie, Wofford would be 2-1, Furman would be 1-2 (assuming Samford loss), Western Carolina would be 1-2, Samford would be 2-1, the autobid goes to Samford by virtue beating Wofford.

[youwouldno]

This ranking makes no sense to me. If WCU loses to Mercer, which could easily happen, they are a bubble team at best, if not straight-up eliminated.

[PaladinFan]

This ranking makes no sense to me. If WCU loses to Mercer, which could easily happen, they are a bubble team at best, if not straight-up eliminated.

Agreed. First, I have no idea how someone ranks WCU over Furman. Second, WCU has 7 wins with Mercer and UNC left to play. Both those games are potential losses. I don't see WCU in the postseason at 7-5 as the 4th SoCon team.

[FurmanWins!!]

I was 2-2 today. It appears rumors of Kyrie Adams being done for the season were greatly exaggerated. Here's where I have it after today.

1) Wofford (IN*) - Survived another spirited effort
2) Western Carolina (IN) - Clawed their way into a playoff bid
3) Furman (1 of 2) - Rested up for their final two games
4) Samford (1 of 2) - Kept their playoff hopes alive one more week
5) Mercer (OUT) - Was denied the chance to play spoiler
6) The Citadel (OUT) - Played "Taps" regarding their playoff bid after their loss
7) ETSU (OUT) - Bucs picked up their first win in awhile
8) Chattanooga (OUT) - Showed more pride in the last two weeks than their bigger brothers from Knoxville did all season
9) VMI (OUT) - Became the fourth conference team to lose to ETSU since the Bucs' return

* Unless some sense, semblance, miracle or the grace of God VMI shocks the conference world next week, Wofford has the autobid

Predictions
Wofford @ VMI - Terriers officially stick a fork in the race for the autobid
The Citadel @ Furman (Game of the Week) - Paladins keep their title hopes alive
Mercer @ Western Carolina - Catamounts put away the Bears
ETSU @ Samford (Upset Special of the Week) - Bucs steal one on the road

Path to the Southern Conference Championship
Wofford - wins the autobid with win @ VMI (no pressure here) and sole possession of conference title with Furman loss @ The Citadel
Furman - are VMI fans this week as they need to win out and VMI to beat Wofford to win autobid, can still claim share of conference title simply by winning out
Western Carolina/Samford - can claim share of conference title by winning out and VMI beating Wofford

In event of four way tie, Wofford would be 2-1, Furman would be 1-2 (assuming Samford loss), Western Carolina would be 1-2, Samford would be 2-1, the autobid goes to Samford by virtue beating Wofford.



Flip WCU and Furman bud, we just whipped those boys up in the Whee last week xthumbsupx

[ElCid]

This ranking makes no sense to me. If WCU loses to Mercer, which could easily happen, they are a bubble team at best, if not straight-up eliminated.

I am missing your point. If you are speaking about his power rankings What does possibly losing to a team next week have to do with this weeks power/momentum ranking? People have different interpretations for the method in ranking but a simple "standings" is usually not one of them. You can look at the SOCON site for that. I am not so sure WCU loses next week in any event. And an 8-4 WCU is definitely in.

[FurmanWins!!]

I am missing your point. If you are speaking about his power rankings What does possibly losing to a team next week have to do with this weeks power/momentum ranking? People have different interpretations for the method in ranking but a simple "standings" is usually not one of them. You can look at the SOCON site for that. I am not so sure WCU loses next week in any event. And an 8-4 WCU is definitely in.

WCU - FU was decided on the field last week, unless FU loses again they stay ahead of WCU and Samford

8-4 yes WCU is in, but lose to mercer and unc and they are out

[ElCid]

Agreed. First, I have no idea how someone ranks WCU over Furman. Second, WCU has 7 wins with Mercer and UNC left to play. Both those games are potential losses. I don't see WCU in the postseason at 7-5 as the 4th SoCon team.


See above. Not sure I would do it the way he did, but this is a power ranking. People all have their own method for doing that. Momentum and other factors could be used, like having Adams back. H2H or a simple conference standing is not usually mandatory. Although it might be the same. However, the recentness of their game with you should probably matter more. But oh my, aren't you Furple fan boys touchy today for not even playing.

[ElCid]

WCU - FU was decided on the field last week, unless FU loses again they stay ahead of WCU and Samford

8-4 yes WCU is in, but lose to mercer and unc and they are out

Given. But that has nothing to do with this weeks poll.

[FurmanWins!!]

Given. But that has nothing to do with this weeks poll.


When you're ranking the SoCon, can't put WCU ahead of FU when we have better conference record and whipped them last week up at their place

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford is bad this year.

[ElCid]

Wofford is bad this year.

#1 bad.

[youwouldno]

Furman has 1 conference loss and WCU has 2. Furman dominated head-to-head. It's a simple fact that Furman is ahead of WCU. People can use whatever bogus "method" they want, they could rank VMI #1 based on Stonewall Jackson's performance at Second Manassas, but it would be equally without legitimacy.

[FurmanWins!!]

Wofford is bad this year.


Now you're just trying to hustle some folks, you will be 9-2 and top 8 seed, don't worry until round 2 of playoffs xthumbsupx

[ElCid]

When you're ranking the SoCon, can't put WCU ahead of FU when we have better conference record and whipped them last week up at their place

Conf record and power poll/ranking have nothing to do with each other champ. They might but not necessarily. But again, I don't disagree with Furman in #2. I might even put Furman at #1 myself regardless of H2H with Wofford. I haven't done my picks in a while now due to some family distractions, but I just may this week.

[ElCid]

We have had this discussion before as to the power poll/ranking. If you fair weather Furman folks had been here all along, you would have remembered.:D

[FurmanWins!!]

Conf record and power poll/ranking have nothing to do with each other champ. They might but not necessarily. But again, I don't disagree with Furman in #2. I might even put Furman at #1 myself regardless of H2H with Wofford. I haven't done my picks in a while now due to some family distractions, but I just may this week.



Someone could rank VMI #1 in their power poll if they want, does not mean that it would not be dumb, similar as putting WCU ahead of FU.

My point, its idiotic to have WCU ahead of FU in a power poll currently, simple.

[FurmanWins!!]

We have had this discussion before as to the power poll/ranking. If you fair weather Furman folks had been here all along, you would have remembered.:D



Fair weather as in stop making a power poll because CIT loses 3 and now 4 conference games, convenient xthumbsupx

[FurmanWins!!]

ELCID, whats you're prediction for FU vs CIT this week bro?

[ElCid]

Fair weather as in stop making a power poll because CIT loses 3 and now 4 conference games, convenient xthumbsupx

...I only wish that were the reason.

[gofurman]

Conf record and power poll/ranking have nothing to do with each other champ. They might but not necessarily. But again, I don't disagree with Furman in #2. I might even put Furman at #1 myself regardless of H2H with Wofford. I haven't done my picks in a while now due to some family distractions, but I just may this week.

now this shows Objectivity !! FU agreeing with Citadel here.

Power rankings and standings are different. Just like someone might power rank Furman above Wofford based on how both are playing.. but Woff is (Factually) at 6-1 and FU is 5-1. Same way - for whatever reason - someone might power rank WCU above FU despite FU winning head2h and having a better conf record

Coorelation but clear difference in conf standings and a power ranking. Put it this way, if Bama were in the Socon and somehow had a loss to Woff so Woff was undefeated and Bama 6-1, I am still putting Bama at the top of power rankings

[Reign of Terrier]

Fair weather as in stop making a power poll because CIT loses 3 and now 4 conference games, convenient xthumbsupx

How about you not make bold assertions about people's lives that you have no idea about?

God and y'all thought I was insufferable?

[dungeonjoe]

insufferable is as insufferable does.:)

[ElCid]

ELCID, whats you're prediction for FU vs CIT this week bro?

I will do some ciphering if I have time. If you read any of the early season wedge articles you know I am pretty fair and accurate when I have time to analyze.

[FurmanWins!!]

How about you not make bold assertions about people's lives that you have no idea about?

God and y'all thought I was insufferable?


Please, lighten up francis

[PaladinFan]

I am missing your point. If you are speaking about his power rankings What does possibly losing to a team next week have to do with this weeks power/momentum ranking? People have different interpretations for the method in ranking but a simple "standings" is usually not one of them. You can look at the SOCON site for that. I am not so sure WCU loses next week in any event. And an 8-4 WCU is definitely in.

Not completely sure of that. Let me explain:

Assume Furman, WCU, Samford and Wofford all win next week. We will be left with this:

Wofford 9-1 (7-1)
Furman 7-3 (6-1)
WCU 8-3 (6-2)
Samford 7-3 (5-2)

Now, all eyes turn to Furman/Samford. If Furman wins, Samford is likely out of the playoff picture at 7-4. I expect Wofford, Furman, and WCU would all be in.

If Samford wins, you would have Furman, Samford, and WCU all tied at 6-2. My guess is Samford finishes 2nd by virtue of beating Wofford. Furman finishes 3rd by virtue of beating WCU. WCU finishes fourth (though with 8 wins).

So, I think WCU is likely in with 8 wins. However, I think there is a scenario where WCU could end up with 8 wins and finish 4th in the SoCon. While they may have more wins than Furman in that case, I do not think the committee would select WCU over Furman (a team with an identical conference record who beat them head to head).

Long story short, I think the team sitting in third place in the SoCon is a lot more comfortable than the one sitting in fourth.

[bonarae]

Wofford
Furman
WCU
Samford

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/926808347105300482

[LarryBoy]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/926808347105300482

I appreciate the enthusiasm, but you really don’t need to post every picture that the Furman Football twitter account posts. Really.

[FurmanWins!!]

I appreciate the enthusiasm, but you really don’t need to post every picture that the Furman Football twitter account posts. Really.


Thanks for the advice, but ill continue to post whatever I want, not what you think I should, really xthumbsupx

[Smitty]

I appreciate the enthusiasm, but you really don’t need to post every picture that the Furman Football twitter account posts. Really.

xthumbsupx

[FurmanWins!!]

xthumbsupx


xthumbsupx

[Smitty]

Not completely sure of that. Let me explain:

Assume Furman, WCU, Samford and Wofford all win next week. We will be left with this:

Wofford 9-1 (7-1)
Furman 7-3 (6-1)
WCU 8-3 (6-2)
Samford 7-3 (5-2)

Now, all eyes turn to Furman/Samford. If Furman wins, Samford is likely out of the playoff picture at 7-4. I expect Wofford, Furman, and WCU would all be in.

If Samford wins, you would have Furman, Samford, and WCU all tied at 6-2. My guess is Samford finishes 2nd by virtue of beating Wofford. Furman finishes 3rd by virtue of beating WCU. WCU finishes fourth (though with 8 wins).

So, I think WCU is likely in with 8 wins. However, I think there is a scenario where WCU could end up with 8 wins and finish 4th in the SoCon. While they may have more wins than Furman in that case, I do not think the committee would select WCU over Furman (a team with an identical conference record who beat them head to head).

Long story short, I think the team sitting in third place in the SoCon is a lot more comfortable than the one sitting in fourth.

If WCU is in 4th and manages to play UNC competitively, maybe they will get a nod for a playoff bid. Unfortunately it would have to be a win or an OT loss in order for that to happen

[PaladinFan]

If WCU is in 4th and manages to play UNC competitively, maybe they will get a nod for a playoff bid. Unfortunately it would have to be a win or an OT loss in order for that to happen

Just my guess, but if I were a WCU fan, I would handle business against Mercer and then hope Furman eliminates Samford next week.

[ElCid]

If WCU is in 4th and manages to play UNC competitively, maybe they will get a nod for a playoff bid. Unfortunately it would have to be a win or an OT loss in order for that to happen


Just my guess, but if I were a WCU fan, I would handle business against Mercer and then hope Furman eliminates Samford next week.


I would not worry just yet. Some folks in other Conferences are crapping the bed today.

[Smitty]

I would not worry just yet. Some folks in other Conferences are crapping the bed today.

I'm not really worried, just coming up with scenarios... Hopefully we will be going back down to 1 FBS game a year which would allow us to get another quality game.

[Reign of Terrier]

Please, lighten up francis

Furman sucks

[Reign of Terrier]

Yep. If/when Furman loses they're getting the "Furman's back baby!" comment. I don't care who does it.

sorry to the reasonable Furman fans

[PaladinFan]

Furman sucks

Don't hold bandwagon fans against us. Seems like every team has folks that show up when the team is good and then disappear when they aren't.

[FurmanWins!!]

I have not made any predictions for the remainder of the season
Furman's still back, no matter what happens the rest of this season xthumbsupx

- - - Updated - - -

For the record:
I see us getting by the Citadel, beyond that anything can happen this year

[PaladinFan]

Yep. If/when Furman loses they're getting the "Furman's back baby!" comment. I don't care who does it.

sorry to the reasonable Furman fans

To be fair, Furman could lose the next two games and it not negate the fact that they've had a marvelous turnaround this season and a bright future.

[FurmanWins!!]

Don't hold bandwagon fans against us. Seems like every team has folks that show up when the team is good and then disappear when they aren't.


Dude are you being serious? Just because you like to type a book with each post you make on message boards makes you no better fan than I, thanks

[ElCid]

To be fair, Furman could lose the next two games and it not negate the fact that they've had a marvelous turnaround this season and a bright future.


You are entering a "no sandbagging zone."

[Reign of Terrier]

But as for playoff stuff goes, the way I see it, as strong as the CAA and MVFC is (just glancing, it's possible, it's possible those two conferences by themselves get 10 or even 11), I don't think a 4 loss Samford gets in over any of the 7-4 teams in either conference (CAA could have *5* at 8-3 or better).

I think a 7-4 Furman gets in by virtue of SOS (7 D1 wins, closes losses to top 10 teams, etc). I'd be surprised if a 7-5 Western gets left out. If they win this week they are a lock in my opinion.

So, long story short, if Furman wins this week they pretty much clinch it IMO, regardless of the outcome of the Samford game, whereas Samford needs to win out.

[Reign of Terrier]

Don't hold bandwagon fans against us. Seems like every team has folks that show up when the team is good and then disappear when they aren't.

I mean, I'll admit I'm that guy (I don't think it's bad to not go on a website because you have no reason), but at least when I'm here I try to ground my enthusiasm in fact (and when it's not there, I drop it, hence "we aren't good this year" I say without qualification) and give as much reasonable doubt as possible.

I just think it's unnecessary to kick other teams when they're down. Me and FUBear give each other **** and I think he's a homer, but the thought of rubbing it in after a loss when we're not even playing has not crossed my mind.

[FurmanWins!!]

I mean, I'll admit I'm that guy (I don't think it's bad to not go on a website because you have no reason), but at least when I'm here I try to ground my enthusiasm in fact (and when it's not there, I drop it, hence "we aren't good this year" I say without qualification) and give as much reasonable doubt as possible.

I just think it's unnecessary to kick other teams when they're down. Me and FUBear give each other **** and I think he's a homer, but the thought of rubbing it in after a loss when we're not even playing has not crossed my mind.


And by that you mean what exactly? And please don't say anything about good ole ELCID, he started coming at me long before I even gave a thought about Citadel this year

[ElCid]

And by that you mean what exactly? And please don't say anything about good ole ELCID, he started coming at me long before I even gave a thought about Citadel this year

Really? Touchy touchy.

[FurmanWins!!]

Man I just realized how dumb all this is, I could just be enjoying some college football instead I am on here wasting time typing pointless crap with nothing but pointless back and forth's that go absolutely nowhere, time to just be a good ole fan again xpeacex

[ElCid]

Man I just realized how dumb all this is, I could just be enjoying some college football instead I am on here wasting time typing pointless crap with nothing but pointless back and forth's that go absolutely nowhere, time to just be a good ole fan again xpeacex


Yeah, let's get back to normal damn it!

Furman sucks.xthumbsupx

[Reign of Terrier]

As for the YT algorithmic quasi-statistical bull**** picks of the week, it has:
Wofford 28
VMI 16

Furman 27
Citadel 21

Western Carolina 24
Mercer 23

Samford 26
ETSU 19.

Some qualifications: the Wofford prediction makes me sigh because, yes, I'm confident in saying that VMI is not as good as they were last year, that it is unlikely that they can score 16 points because they've only been in scoring position, like twice per game, no matter who they play. But, at the same time, we're just bad this year. And last year, going into the fourth quarter we were only up 3-0 against VMI. Further, no matter who we play this year, our defense gives up 21-24ish points. They find a way. So my first inclination is to say "VMI won't score that much" but at the same time, Wofford's trends indicate otherwise. We just can't put teams away in the fourth quarter. Take all the clutch plays we've made this year and put them a possession earlier, and we wouldn't call us clutch, you'd say we're a top 5 team. So in some ways, we're the opposite of clutch.

So I'm just going to go with that prediction as it's been on the mark the last two weeks (overestimating the margin for Chatt but pretty much nailing it for ETSU).

As for the Furman-Citadel game, I don't think there's enough time in the game for an over/under of 48. I also don't think the Western Carolina game is a good barometer to how the Citadel's run defense will play Furman. Furman probably has a better passing game and unlike Western, likes to overpower teams not exploit angles (though they do plenty of that too). I also don't think the Citadel is efficient enough to score 20 points, even if there are question marks on Furman's defense if you squint). So I'm going to adjust that down and predict Furman winning 24-14. If both teams are running their offenses effectively, the clock will prohibit a high scoring game.

As for Western vs Mercer...Western is just a different beast with Adams at the helm. Though Mercer has a great defense, they have some serious question marks on offense. Western has defensive question marks, but I think their ability to get off the field (which, they quietly maintained that average against Furman) will set them apart. So I'm going to say Western 31 Mercer 21.

ETSU, Samford I think will play out similar to the Wofford/Mercer games ETSU played. This is a road game for ETSU, so it's possible, if not likely that they won't play *as well* as they did against citadel/Mercer/Wofford. Having said that, ETSU is very weak in the trenches. This could be one of those games in which Hatcher actually looks like he has a run game and as a result calls a more conservative game. Samford fans may hate their lack of run game, but in games they're favored I feel there's an inverse relationship between points and the amount of times they run the ball. Still, ETSU's weakness in the trenches and Samford's ability to get sacks will set this game apart. I'm going to say 31-17 Samford, but I would put an asterisk next to this one in that it has the potential to be interesting either which way.

[PaladinFan]

And by that you mean what exactly? And please don't say anything about good ole ELCID, he started coming at me long before I even gave a thought about Citadel this year

If Citadel fans get under your skin, this isn't the place for you.

[wcugrad95]

Not completely sure of that. Let me explain:

Assume Furman, WCU, Samford and Wofford all win next week. We will be left with this:

Wofford 9-1 (7-1)
Furman 7-3 (6-1)
WCU 8-3 (6-2)
Samford 7-3 (5-2)

Now, all eyes turn to Furman/Samford. If Furman wins, Samford is likely out of the playoff picture at 7-4. I expect Wofford, Furman, and WCU would all be in.

If Samford wins, you would have Furman, Samford, and WCU all tied at 6-2. My guess is Samford finishes 2nd by virtue of beating Wofford. Furman finishes 3rd by virtue of beating WCU. WCU finishes fourth (though with 8 wins).

So, I think WCU is likely in with 8 wins. However, I think there is a scenario where WCU could end up with 8 wins and finish 4th in the SoCon. While they may have more wins than Furman in that case, I do not think the committee would select WCU over Furman (a team with an identical conference record who beat them head to head).

Long story short, I think the team sitting in third place in the SoCon is a lot more comfortable than the one sitting in fourth.

The SoCon only figures out an AQ for playoff inclusion. If 3 teams finish tied for 2nd at 6-2, all three are considered second place.

[Reign of Terrier]

The SoCon only figures out an AQ for playoff inclusion. If 3 teams finish tied for 2nd at 6-2, all three are considered second place.

This is very relevant...I think if you look at history, at least one team tied for second gets left out when there's a 3 way tie. On the top of my head, it happened to Chattanooga a few years ago and infamously to wofford in 2002

[dungeonjoe]

If Citadel fans get under your skin, this isn't the place for you.
That's THE Citadel fans, if you please:)

[PaladinFan]

The SoCon only figures out an AQ for playoff inclusion. If 3 teams finish tied for 2nd at 6-2, all three are considered second place.

Correct. The tiebreaker is just for AQ purposes.

I mean, someone finishes in each spot, so I assume that there's some way of figuring out who finishes where. Granted, I don't see why the SoCon would revert to a different tie breaker system.

[PaladinNation]

This is one Furman fan… who will stay humble. We could lose the next two games I hope not but it could very well happen.

From my POV many of you mostly Wofford and Western fans have been very complimentary of the Dins turn-around. xthumbsupx

I'm just excited we have a chance for a SoCon co-championship and a playoff spot.

[SCPALADIN]

1) Wofford
2) Furman
3) Western Carolina
4) Samford
5) Mercer
6) The Citadel
7) ETSU
8) Chattanooga
9) VMI

Wofford @ VMI
The Citadel @ Furman
Mercer @ Western Carolina
ETSU @ Samford

[kdinva]

T1) Wofford
t1) Furman
3) WCU
4) Samford
5) Mercer
6) The Citadel
t7) ETSU
t7) UTC
9) VMI



Wofford 27; VMI 7
Furman 31; The Citadel 20
Samford 34; ETSU 17
WCU 34; Mercer 20

[ElCid]

Power Poll/Ranking*

1) Furman - hottest team out there, look what they did to bye
2) Wofford - winning, but sloppy enough lately to be dethroned
3) Western Carolina - clicking well
4) Samford - they should be 7-1 right now, but may be a on push to the finish; good, but very inconsistant
5) Chattanooga - they got something going finally, a lot of teams should be glad they played them earlier
6) Mercer - sinking fast
7) The Citadel - sloppy play has hurt them all year, and it continues
8) ETSU - exceeding expectations
9) VMI - what can anyone say
*note for those who simply think this is the conference records or who won some H2H, maybe weeks ago. It isn't. It is who is trending hot and how good I think the teams are playing overall right now. Obviously it mostly matches the records, but not necessarily. If you want a conference standing go look at one on the SOCON site. And besides, I can make it anything I want. But so can you.

Best guess for playoffs:
Wofford gets auto
Furman finishes 8-3 - in
WCU finishes 8-4 - in
Samford finishes 7-4 - out pending rest of field

Predictions:
Wofford @ VMI - easy win to seal auto - 31-0
The Citadel @ Furman - grudge match could always make it closer than expected but Dogs will be winding down emotionally after loss; Dogs D giving up occasional big plays all year and that fits Furman to a tee; Paladins don't stop Dogs running, but stay a step ahead - 34-24
Mercer @ WCU - Western can move the ball, but so can Mercer, usually; could end up being a track meet, but if it is, edge to the Cats, they can taste the playoffs - 38-31
ETSU @ Samford - Samford will remember last year and be seriously up for this game - 38-17

[wcugrad95]

Seems like a lot of people are sleeping on Samford. Their loss against UTC all of the sudden seems almost understandable given the Mocs recent play, and on both sides of that loss they have road wins at Wofford and at Mercer - and were especially impressive today. Given Kennesaw just went to 8-1, the Bulldogs have by far the best OOC win by anybody in the conference. Still 2 games to go, but if they "only" get to 7 wins I would think they will get a long, hard look by the committee. If they get to 8 wins, no way they aren't in. If they hadn't lost to UTC they would be pushing for a seed.

Kind of related - the Big South are closing in on 2 teams getting bids (Kennesaw and Monmouth are going to have 9 or 10 wins each). If that happens, one of the SoCon teams will probably be left at home (even though I think any of our top 5 or 6 would win 9+ games with some of the Big South schedules).

[PaladinFan]

Seems like a lot of people are sleeping on Samford. Their loss against UTC all of the sudden seems almost understandable given the Mocs recent play, and on both sides of that loss they have road wins at Wofford and at Mercer - and were especially impressive today. Given Kennesaw just went to 8-1, the Bulldogs have by far the best OOC win by anybody in the conference. Still 2 games to go, but if they "only" get to 7 wins I would think they will get a long, hard look by the committee. If they get to 8 wins, no way they aren't in. If they hadn't lost to UTC they would be pushing for a seed.

Kind of related - the Big South are closing in on 2 teams getting bids (Kennesaw and Monmouth are going to have 9 or 10 wins each). If that happens, one of the SoCon teams will probably be left at home (even though I think any of our top 5 or 6 would win 9+ games with some of the Big South schedules).

Would be interested to know impressions from that game. Samford is an enigma, but I'm surprised Mercer looked so poor on offense coming out of a bye week.

[Reign of Terrier]

I have a method on my spreadsheet that I use for my stats that kind of demonstrates Chattanooga has been really hot in the last three week, relative to their baseline, but I don't think anyone wants to hear that from me right now.

The Samford loss to Chattanooga looks better now, but I'm still really interested in the Furman-Samford game just because of the stakes and because of what each brings to the table. Samford is probably the worst matchup for Furman (most efficient defense in the conference and has played a better schedule than Western; not to mention Furman this week was last in pass defense and Samford is Samford).

I wouldn't be surprised if the Citadel-Furman game is close, but I would be if Citadel wins. Having said that, nothing will surprise me with the Samford game. I think it'll be a good one.

[Reign of Terrier]

Would be interested to know impressions from that game. Samford is an enigma, but I'm surprised Mercer looked so poor on offense coming out of a bye week.

By my count, Mercer had an average game on defense in terms of their own efficiency and that translated to holding Samford below their efficiency for the year by about 9% (or ~a scoring possession less than average). They had their worst offensive performance of the year (26% less efficient than normal, making Samford's defense look 17% more efficient than normal). Samford is already among the best in the Socon in terms of getting teams off the field on defense (opposing teams scoring about 25.2% for the year), but Mercer did even worse than that, playing poorly by both their own standards and by Samford's.

In Southern Conference games, Samford is the best in the conference in terms of getting teams of the field (opposing teams scoring about 21% of the time which is phenomenal when you look at their schedule). Samford is an enigma, but I think we can conclude a couple things:

1) They get off the field, somehow, some way, whether that be by luck or skill. It's who they are, so you have to bank on it.
2) Their offense has turnover problems like CRAZY. as a Wofford fan I'm offended that they only turned it over once against us when in the last two weeks they've turned it over like 10 times, maybe more. They cut down on the turnovers, they win games and they aren't close.
3) Some how, they know how to run-first option-style teams; they are 3-0 this season against them (Kennesaw, Wofford, Citadel); Hatcher does well against the option for some reason.

So I'm interested in the matchup between Samford and Furman in a couple weeks just because Furman is the inversion in many ways. Furman's offense is the most efficient in the league, and though their defense may not be as efficient as Samford's they're still good. Not to mention Furman loves to run the ball the old fashioned way; Samford likes to throw it all over the yard

[PaladinFan]

I have a method on my spreadsheet that I use for my stats that kind of demonstrates Chattanooga has been really hot in the last three week, relative to their baseline, but I don't think anyone wants to hear that from me right now.

The Samford loss to Chattanooga looks better now, but I'm still really interested in the Furman-Samford game just because of the stakes and because of what each brings to the table. Samford is probably the worst matchup for Furman (most efficient defense in the conference and has played a better schedule than Western; not to mention Furman this week was last in pass defense and Samford is Samford).

I wouldn't be surprised if the Citadel-Furman game is close, but I would be if Citadel wins. Having said that, nothing will surprise me with the Samford game. I think it'll be a good one.

Furman's pass defense is not, in my opinion, as bad as the numbers suggest. A couple of observations:

1. Furman's defense is playing much better now than it was earlier in the season.

2. Furman's top priority on defense is to stop the run. They do that just about as well as anyone.

3. We have a lot of inexperience at CB. We play a lot of freshmen, and the "veteran" guys we have out there are still young. One just moved from WR to CB this spring.

4. Furman has played with a lead a bunch, so you may expect teams are having to throw the ball more than they would otherwise.

5. Furman will also completely surrender coverage underneath on long downs and distances. It is perfectly common to see a 3rd and long with Furman playing 7 defenders at or behind the first down marker. They will literally give an offense whatever play they want to run underneath and come up to make the tackle.

6. The Paladins surrender a good deal of pass yardage, but not necessarily scores. Furman leads the SoCon in sacks. They have 8 interceptions against 13 touchdowns. Those are similar numbers to Western Carolina (10 picks and 11 TDs), who has statistically the league's best pass defense.

As far as Samford is concerned, I think they do Furman a favor by being one dimensional. I think that game will be decided by which team forces their style of play on the other. Furman is going to figure out how to defend Samford's quick passing game, while Samford will have to deal with Furman's pounding rush attack.

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman's pass defense is not, in my opinion, as bad as the numbers suggest. A couple of observations:

1. Furman's defense is playing much better now than it was earlier in the season.

2. Furman's top priority on defense is to stop the run. They do that just about as well as anyone.

3. We have a lot of inexperience at CB. We play a lot of freshmen, and the "veteran" guys we have out there are still young. One just moved from WR to CB this spring.

4. Furman has played with a lead a bunch, so you may expect teams are having to throw the ball more than they would otherwise.

5. Furman will also completely surrender coverage underneath on long downs and distances. It is perfectly common to see a 3rd and long with Furman playing 7 defenders at or behind the first down marker. They will literally give an offense whatever play they want to run underneath and come up to make the tackle.

6. The Paladins surrender a good deal of pass yardage, but not necessarily scores. Furman leads the SoCon in sacks. They have 8 interceptions against 13 touchdowns. Those are similar numbers to Western Carolina (10 picks and 11 TDs), who has statistically the league's best pass defense.

As far as Samford is concerned, I think they do Furman a favor by being one dimensional. I think that game will be decided by which team forces their style of play on the other. Furman is going to figure out how to defend Samford's quick passing game, while Samford will have to deal with Furman's pounding rush attack.

I'm inclined to agree in principle but Devlin Hodges can beat anyone by himself and I won't be ready to make a judgment until then.

My impression is that if the Dins can hold Hodges to below 60% completions and 300 yards, they'd have nothing to worry about in the playoffs. If they have a performance like they did against ETSU (garbage time or not), Hodges could burn them

[FUBeAR]

Furman sucks
Trademark Infringement

[tenNesseeCat]

Power:
Wofford
Furman
WCU
Samford
Mercer
The Citadel
ETSU
UTC
VMI


Picks:
Wofford @ VMI
The Citadel @ Furman
Mercer @ WCU
ETSU @ Samford

[longtimemocfan]

Furman's pass defense is not, in my opinion, as bad as the numbers suggest. A couple of observations:

1. Furman's defense is playing much better now than it was earlier in the season.

2. Furman's top priority on defense is to stop the run. They do that just about as well as anyone.

3. We have a lot of inexperience at CB. We play a lot of freshmen, and the "veteran" guys we have out there are still young. One just moved from WR to CB this spring.

4. Furman has played with a lead a bunch, so you may expect teams are having to throw the ball more than they would otherwise.

5. Furman will also completely surrender coverage underneath on long downs and distances. It is perfectly common to see a 3rd and long with Furman playing 7 defenders at or behind the first down marker. They will literally give an offense whatever play they want to run underneath and come up to make the tackle.

6. The Paladins surrender a good deal of pass yardage, but not necessarily scores. Furman leads the SoCon in sacks. They have 8 interceptions against 13 touchdowns. Those are similar numbers to Western Carolina (10 picks and 11 TDs), who has statistically the league's best pass defense.

As far as Samford is concerned, I think they do Furman a favor by being one dimensional. I think that game will be decided by which team forces their style of play on the other. Furman is going to figure out how to defend Samford's quick passing game, while Samford will have to deal with Furman's pounding rush attack.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before we played Furman. We had like a 3rd and 20 and it like a defense you’d see on a hail mary prevent.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before we played Furman. We had like a 3rd and 20 and it like a defense you’d see on a hail mary prevent.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Furman seems pretty committed to doing it, but isn't something you see every day. I really started to see that call after the Elon game, which was a game where Furman just struggled to get off the field on third downs. The Phoenix converted a bunch of 3rd downs by hitting a receiver immediately at the sticks.

What I've noticed, though, is that it can confuse offenses. QBs and WRs are trying to make reads, and Furman's defenders are not where they expect them to be.

[PaladinFan]

This is very relevant...I think if you look at history, at least one team tied for second gets left out when there's a 3 way tie. On the top of my head, it happened to Chattanooga a few years ago and infamously to wofford in 2002

Circling back. The well-circulated tie breaker rules in the SoCon are just for the automatic bid (or at least that's what they say).

I've looked back over the standings for the last several years trying to figure out how each team slots into their specific spot in the standings. For instance, right now the Citadel is listed ahead of Mercer, even though both teams have the same 3-4 conference record and Mercer beat the Citadel head to head. Makes me think head to head matchups aren't the deciding factor for tied teams, but overall win percentage is (the spot where the Citadel has the advantage over Mercer).

As far as the playoffs are concerned, I think the SoCon gets their autobid - right now, likely Wofford. After that, the committee simply will go to the resumes.

Furman and Samford both have a quality OOC win over a likely playoff opponent (KSU, Colgate), while WCU does not. Both Samford and Furman played tougher FBS teams (NC State and UGA). Furman's OOC opponents are superior to both Samford's and WCU's (no D2, no Davidson, no Gardner Webb).

Easiest scenario for Furman is to handle their business against the Citadel and Samford. By just winning one, though, they will likely open a scenario where they go to the judges, and there's a good chance someone is gonna get screwed.

[FUBeAR]

For instance, right now the Citadel is listed ahead of Mercer, even though both teams have the same 3-4 conference record and Mercer beat the Citadel head to head. Makes me think head to head matchups aren't the deciding factor for tied teams, but overall win percentage is (the spot where the Citadel has the advantage over Mercer).

I could be wrong but my sense is that, in the SoCon’s presentation of Conference standings, Teams tied in Conference records are listed alphabetically...EXCEPT, the SoCon allows CIT to have THEir Cake & eat it too. They give THEm THEir “THE,” but use “C” for THEir alphabetized position.

Did they have Furman listed before Wofford until Sat.?

[wcugrad95]

Furman and Samford both have a quality OOC win over a likely playoff opponent (KSU, Colgate)

Colgate should get to 7-4 and get the AQ from the Patriot. But if they are a playoff team, I don't see how a 7-win SoCon team wouldn't be worthy??? I know there are only so many spots, but give Furman, Samford, WCU (maybe Citadel and even Mercer) that schedule and you don't think all of those teams would be able to "find" 7 and probably more wins? Or that any of them wouldn't be the Patriot champ? It would appear most voters also don't pay a ton of attention on FBS unless you happen to win a game.

That is what makes this so hard if any of the teams only get to 7 wins - there are 10 AQs and only 14 other bids. Anybody who is 6-2 in the conference and/or gets to 8 wins would seem like a no-brainer if we really are at least the 3rd best conference in the country. But that would mean 3 out of 14 at-large bids. Given that, I agree that there is a strong likelihood that somebody gets screwed - probably several somebodies across the top 3 or 4 conferences.

Kind of razor thin lines. I think if Western wins this weekend to get to 8 wins, we are in. If we lose we would have to beat UNC or we are out.

[wcugrad95]

I could be wrong but my sense is that, in the SoCon’s presentation of Conference standings, Teams tied in Conference records are listed alphabetically...EXCEPT, the SoCon allows CIT to have THEir Cake & eat it too. They give THEm THEir “THE,” but use “C” for THEir alphabetized position.

Did they have Furman listed before Wofford until Sat.?

I tried to go back and look at the previous standings on the SoCon site, but it isn't something readily available. I did look at last season's final standings, and they had Wofford ahead of Chattanooga both with 6-2 conference records. The site lists UTC as "Chatanooga" but if they really use "UTC" that would make your alphabetized ranking correct. They had VMI ahead of WCU even though we had the same conference record and won head-to-head. So another "alphabetized" listing.

[ElCid]

I tried to go back and look at the previous standings on the SoCon site, but it isn't something readily available. I did look at last season's final standings, and they had Wofford ahead of Chattanooga both with 6-2 conference records. The site lists UTC as "Chatanooga" but if they really use "UTC" that would make your alphabetized ranking correct. They had VMI ahead of WCU even though we had the same conference record and won head-to-head. So another "alphabetized" listing.

I have been looking at it for eons, it absolutely is listed in alphabetical order, everything else being equal.

[SCPALADIN]

I have been looking at it for eons, it absolutely is listed in alphabetical order, everything else being equal.

Same here. From what I can tell it's always simply been alphabetical.

[FUBeAR]

I have been looking at it for eons, it absolutely is listed in alphabetical order, everything else being equal.

...except for THE anomaly.

I think it’s time THE SoCon forces CIT to choose. EiTHEr drop THE “THE” or accept the alphabetical disadvantage it carries!

[Reign of Terrier]

I could be wrong but my sense is that, in the SoCon’s presentation of Conference standings, Teams tied in Conference records are listed alphabetically...EXCEPT, the SoCon allows CIT to have THEir Cake & eat it too. They give THEm THEir “THE,” but use “C” for THEir alphabetized position.

Did they have Furman listed before Wofford until Sat.?

I don't think so, but I haven't looked at the conference standings. I think because Wofford beat Furman they are ahead.

Then again the most likely scenario out of all of this is that the socon is inconsistent

[wcugrad95]

I don't think so, but I haven't looked at the conference standings. I think because Wofford beat Furman they are ahead.

Then again the most likely scenario out of all of this is that the socon is inconsistent

The point was on the conference site, if both teams win out Furman will be listed above Wofford. Wofford would be the AQ, but both would be considered co-champs and the actual listing would be alphabetized. Right now Wofford is listed first because they have a higher in-conference winning percentage/more conference wins. If both end up at 7-1 that page is going to have Furman then Wofford - both with a "first" beside their names. Same for 3rd place - if WCU and Samford win-out it is going to be Samford then WCU (another example of the winner of the head-to-head not making a difference). Outside of the AQ designation, the conference just treats all teams with the same conference record as tied for whatever spot they are in. They don't try to figure out that team A should be ranked above team B - they just list them in alphabetical order.

[tenNesseeCat]

I think WC, WCU, FU, and SU all win in week 11. If that happens, then I think WC (9-2) and WCU (8-4) are in. That leaves FU and SU to battle it out for the last spot. The one that falls in that game goes to 7-4, which I think isn't good enough to get a bid. Yea, a 7-4 FU team should go, but I just don't see where they would fit, barring a melt down by one of the bubble CAA, MVFC teams. If SU goes down, then no question, they aren't in.

[wcugrad95]

Again, I think any team at 5-3 is probably left out barring a significant FBS win. Of all the teams we are talking about, I would actually think Samford would be the only 7-win team that would have any kind of argument because they will have the best OOC win over Kennesaw. The way the whole landscape is playing out, the SoCon seems destined to at best have 3 teams and possibly only have 2. Wofford is really already in. Barring another meltdown, the winner of FU/Samford is in and the loser is probably out. Western wins this weekend and we should be in, lose and we are out.

In the end, that all says basically the same thing as tenNesseeCat, but just recognizes Samford having the best OOC win and paints the grim picture that we could really end up with only 2. Also, WCU would be 8-3 with 1 "winnable" game left :)

[Reign of Terrier]

I think it's safe to say that if Western beats Mercer (where is that game played?) they're in.

Given the history of leaving teams out of the field who are tied for second/first with the Socon, I think it's also safe to say that the Furman/Samford game is an elimination game.

And I know Furman has a strong resume, but the difference would be that Samford beat the teams they played OOC. Let's compare a hypothetical resume in the event that Furman loses to Samford. Omitting FBS games:

Furman would have quality wins against:
>Colgate (autobid for the Patriot)
> Western Carolina (hypothetically 8-4 and in)
They would have quality losses against Elon, Samford and Wofford
Samford would have quality wins against
>Kennesaw
>Wofford
>Furman (even if Furman doesn't get in the playoffs that would be quality)
They would have a quality loss against Western and a bad loss against chattanooga.

So, in that situation, I think the committee would give the nudge to Samford, especially if Kennesaw wins the Big South. Samford may have one worse loss than the Paladins, but they have more quality wins.

Of course, Furman could go 7-4 and probably still get in the playoffs, I just wouldn't want to risk that.

In the event that Furman gets left out of the playoffs, they're my preseason pick to win the Socon next year.

[PaladinFan]

...except for THE anomaly.

I think it’s time THE SoCon forces CIT to choose. EiTHEr drop THE “THE” or accept the alphabetical disadvantage it carries!

I thought the same thing, but 2013 suggests otherwise. http://www.soconsports.com/standings/Standings.dbml?SPID=1781&DB_OEM_ID=4000&DEF_FY=2013

Furman listed behind Samford. Furman, Samford, and UTC all finished tied. "F" certainly comes before "S" in the alphabet.

I'm inclined to think it is more than just random or alphabetical.

[PaladinFan]

Colgate should get to 7-4 and get the AQ from the Patriot. But if they are a playoff team, I don't see how a 7-win SoCon team wouldn't be worthy??? I know there are only so many spots, but give Furman, Samford, WCU (maybe Citadel and even Mercer) that schedule and you don't think all of those teams would be able to "find" 7 and probably more wins? Or that any of them wouldn't be the Patriot champ? It would appear most voters also don't pay a ton of attention on FBS unless you happen to win a game.

That is what makes this so hard if any of the teams only get to 7 wins - there are 10 AQs and only 14 other bids. Anybody who is 6-2 in the conference and/or gets to 8 wins would seem like a no-brainer if we really are at least the 3rd best conference in the country. But that would mean 3 out of 14 at-large bids. Given that, I agree that there is a strong likelihood that somebody gets screwed - probably several somebodies across the top 3 or 4 conferences.

Kind of razor thin lines. I think if Western wins this weekend to get to 8 wins, we are in. If we lose we would have to beat UNC or we are out.

Realistically, I think the conference gets their autobid, and then the resumes of the remaining teams are compared not only with one another, but also with other "bubble" teams.

This is a big weekend for the SoCon. The four teams in line for a playoff spot are playing four teams that aren't. It would be good for the SoCon and the conference's national profile if all four favorites won.

[wcugrad95]

I thought the same thing, but 2013 suggests otherwise. http://www.soconsports.com/standings/Standings.dbml?SPID=1781&DB_OEM_ID=4000&DEF_FY=2013

Furman listed behind Samford. Furman, Samford, and UTC all finished tied. "F" certainly comes before "S" in the alphabet.

I'm inclined to think it is more than just random or alphabetical.

I think end-of-season maybe they use overall winning percentage? That would make sense with the link you provided, and would only come into effect when 1 team has more games than another. But looks like we can find examples all different ways. From what I can tell with the SoCon site, they put a pretty vanilla rule on things like this (or their stats) and don't try to dig too deep, so I would bet it is something like conference winning percentage, overall winning percentage, then alphabetical - I can't see them digging/analyzing too deeply past that.

[Reign of Terrier]

Based upon this: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?198146-2017-FCS-Playoff-At-Large-Eligibility-(Version-2)&p=2561471#post2561471

If you're a 7 win Socon school (loser of Samford/Furman and Western if they get beat next week), here are some games of interest in the next few weeks:

For the Big Sky:
You'd prefer Montana State to beat Montana in a couple weeks and Southern Utah to beat Northern Arizona

Big South: you want Monmouth to win the conference and Kennesaw to stumble next week against Chuck South
(I personally think they'll both get in even though that qualifies as a hot take on here)

CAA: You want Elon to beat New Hampshire and Delaware

MEAC: you want NC A&T to beat NCCU

MVFC: you want Illinois State and Western Illinois to stumble to 7-4 or worse (no idea how likely that is)

OVC: You want Austin Peay to lose to Eastern Illinois, or the opposite if Austin Peay lays an egg next week

Patriot: You want Colgate to win the Patriot, so you're a Colgate fan and Lafayette fan. Alternatively, I think the Patriot is a one-bid team and if Colgate loses at any point that's a null point

Southland: you want McNeese and Nichols to both lose one.

I couldn't tell you how unlikely/likely these scenarios. I think the Socon gets 4 in if some of the above happens and the 7-4 team is Furman (especially if they lose by a score to Samford). I think a 7-4 Furman has a stronger resume team than a 7-4 Samford team, by virtue of Samford's (technically bad) loss to Chatt. Furman's quality losses are better than Samford's but, if we're assuming a comparison of 7 win teams here, Samford has more quality wins (Wofford, Kennesaw) while Furman's would have Samford and Western (as I'm typing this I'm realizing how close it is, so maybe I'm wrong).

Basically, I think a Furman team with 7 D1 wins and 3 quality losses and a win against a top 15 team looks better for the playoff committee than a 6 D1 Samford team with 1 bad loss and 2 quality losses and only one win against a top 10/15 team). In essence, less D1 wins and a bad loss sets Samford apart as worse.

[Mocs123]

I wish we were in the mix but I am pulling for 4 SoCon teams to get in (and most of all make some noise in) the playoffs. What is good for the conference is ultimately better for all of us.

[walliver]

Power rankings:
1) Furman - did not play
1.1) Wofford - at this rate, we could lose to VMI, or find ourselves in a one-score game in Frisco
...
3) Samford - beat a good Mercer team
4) WCU - beat a gutsy Citadel team - 3 and 4 are a toss-up
...
5) Mercer - not quite ready to break through
6-8 are a toss-up
6) the Citadel - fumbling the football is a bad thing
7) Chattanooga - tough start to the year, but Arth is a better coach than earlier thought.
8) ETSU
9) VMI - 0-10 gets you here

This week:
Wofford at VMI - every week I think the Terriers will put somebody away. Instead, and 0-10 team takes us down to the wire, but Ayers and company pull out a 17-14 win.
The Citadel at The Furman - Other than the first quarter at Sammy, the bullpups have been in every game. If they don't fumble, they could beat the Pukes, but key fumbles have become part of their team DNA and horsey people win 35-20
Mercer at WCU - Mercer will slow down the Cants offense, but I doubt they can score enough points to win and Cants keep playoff hopes alive 21-13
ETSU at Samford - I doubt Sammy has forgotten last year and comes prepared. The Mountain Pirates put a scare in the Bama pups, but Sammy pulls out a 35-31 win

Playoff predictions:
Wofford slips by VMI and gets the autobid. After playing South Carolina to a one score game, gets the #8 seed - playing FU-KSU winner.
I favor FU in both remaining games and they get an at-large spot, probably against Kennesaw State.
WCU will probably beat Mercer and play against a CAA at-large.
Sammy is likely in by winning out, but I don't foresee them beating Furman.
If 3 (or 4) teams end up at 6-2, somebody is likely to get left out.

The SoCon likely gets three, but it all depends on what happens in the lesser parts of the country.:)

[Reign of Terrier]

Power rankings:
1) Furman - did not play
1.1) Wofford - at this rate, we could lose to VMI, or find ourselves in a one-score game in Frisco
...
3) Samford - beat a good Mercer team
4) WCU - beat a gutsy Citadel team - 3 and 4 are a toss-up
...
5) Mercer - not quite ready to break through
6-8 are a toss-up
6) the Citadel - fumbling the football is a bad thing
7) Chattanooga - tough start to the year, but Arth is a better coach than earlier thought.
9) VMI - 0-10 gets you here

This week:
Wofford at VMI - every week I think the Terriers will put somebody away. Instead, and 0-10 team takes us down to the wire, but Ayers and company pull out a 17-14 win.
The Citadel at The Furman - Other than the first quarter at Sammy, the bullpups have been in every game. If they don't fumble, they could beat the Pukes, but key fumbles have become part of their team DNA and horsey people win 35-20
Mercer at WCU - Mercer will slow down the Cants offense, but I doubt they can score enough points to win and Cants keep playoff hopes alive 21-13
ETSU at Samford - I doubt Sammy has forgotten last year and comes prepared. The Mountain Pirates put a scare in the Bama pups, but Sammy pulls out a 35-31 win

Playoff predictions:
Wofford slips by VMI and gets the autobid. After playing South Carolina to a one score game, gets the #8 seed - playing FU-KSU winner.
I favor FU in both remaining games and they get an at-large spot, probably against Kennesaw State.
WCU will probably beat Mercer and play against a CAA at-large.
Sammy is likely in by winning out, but I don't foresee them beating Furman.
If 3 (or 4) teams end up at 6-2, somebody is likely to get left out.

The SoCon likely gets three, but it all depends on what happens in the lesser parts of the country.:)
ETSU is absent from your rankings FWIW

[walliver]

ETSU is absent from your rankings FWIW

8) ETSU - I will edit my post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[FUBeAR]

I thought the same thing, but 2013 suggests otherwise. http://www.soconsports.com/standings/Standings.dbml?SPID=1781&DB_OEM_ID=4000&DEF_FY=2013

Furman listed behind Samford. Furman, Samford, and UTC all finished tied. "F" certainly comes before "S" in the alphabet.

I'm inclined to think it is more than just random or alphabetical.

This link shows multiple examples of your supposition that the SoCon uses overall winning % as THE tiebreaker for Standings listing purposes (the Samford ahead of Furman listing you noted, but also Wofford listed ahead of Citadel, The or The Citadel (either way) and GaSou listed ahead of Appy)...and in the case of a tie in that secondary metric, it would appear they may go to alphabetization (Elon listed ahead of WCU).

We'll keep an eye on it...to see how they 'treat' CIT....alphabetically speaking.

[ElCid]

Ok. We can put this topic to bed for good. Here are the standings for preseason right off the Week 1 SOCON notes.

The oddball ones are The Citadel, and Chatty. They use C for The Citadel and T for Tenn Chattanooga.

Now that we have solved one of the great mysteries of the ages, we can get back to football instead of administrivia. xlolx



http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26420&stc=1

[gofurman]

To be fair, Furman could lose the next two games and it not negate the fact that they've had a marvelous turnaround this season and a bright future.

This. FU won 3 game last year. New coaches. 3-4. Already at 6 wins. It's already a turnaround when you increase your win total by 3. Anyone with a reasonable eye test realizes FU is on the rise. Even if we don't win another this year I would expect us to be in playoff talk next year much sooner etc. just watching the team they are different. And biggest weakness is pass D. Another year w every D guy returning under Staggs will improve that. Every D player returns !

[Mocs123]

Furman looked better this year than they have in nearly a decade. The Palidans haven’t had an offense since Felton? #40 and Ingle Martin.

[wcugrad95]

This. FU won 3 game last year. New coaches. 3-4. Already at 6 wins. It's already a turnaround when you increase your win total by 3. Anyone with a reasonable eye test realizes FU is on the rise. Even if we don't win another this year I would expect us to be in playoff talk next year much sooner etc. just watching the team they are different. And biggest weakness is pass D. Another year w every D guy returning under Staggs will improve that. Every D player returns !

The SoCon has been heading towards parity the last few years. Furman and WCU had major turnarounds from last season, Mercer has the talent to beat anybody in the league, you can't expect Chatt to stay down (as evident with their recent play), Wofford is always solid, Samford will still have Hodges, Citadel is playing lots of young guys this year that will benefit them going forward, and ETSU is a few pieces away from jumping into the fray. Sorry VMI - I still think you have to figure out more than the rest of the teams.

I expect the league to continue to be better from top-to-bottom for the foreseeable future, and will not be surprised to see us back here next year in week 11 talking about the possibility of four teams in the rankings and looking for playoff births (it could just be any combination of those top 6 or 7 teams).

[SCPALADIN]

I'd argue that the last time we had a decent offense was 2011 with Chris Forcier at QB and Jerodis Williams at RB. We knocked off #5 Wofford and #3 App State only to lay a giant egg against an awful Elon team in our last FCS game, and ruin our playoff hopes. We averaged 29 points per game and led the country in passing efficiency. It was straight downhill from there.

[Catamount87]

Here's my thoughts after being out last week.

Rankings
1. Wofford - Living the charmed life right now. 2OT game now, their fairy dust supply has to be running low now.
2. Furman - Got to rest at a critical time of the season
3. WCU - Turned in 2/3s of a great effort, stumbled on special teams, big time
4. Samford - just plain owned Mercer
5. Mercer - fading down the stretch
6. The Citadel - Turnovers once again bit the coastal dogs
7. ETSU - Took advantage of the Roos lack of offense
8. Chattanooga - Proved once again that the SoCon has serious parity
9. VMI - If only they had an offense to go with a decent defense


Predictions
Wofford @ VMI - Terriers claim the SoCon autobid
Citadel @ Furman (Game of the Week) - Furman earns a hard fought win
Mercer @ WCU - Cats make a case for an at-large bid
ETSU @ Samford - Bucs keep it closer than the Dogs like

[PaladinFan]

I'd argue that the last time we had a decent offense was 2011 with Chris Forcier at QB and Jerodis Williams at RB. We knocked off #5 Wofford and #3 App State only to lay a giant egg against an awful Elon team in our last FCS game, and ruin our playoff hopes. We averaged 29 points per game and led the country in passing efficiency. It was straight downhill from there.

The 2011 team was sort of the one outlier over the past 10 or so seasons. That was Bruce Fowler's first year, and Furman went back to a north/south run game and high efficiency passing. I'm not completely sure why we went away from that, as the Paladins became one of the SoCon's worst offenses for the 5 seasons after that.

[PaladinFan]

Furman looked better this year than they have in nearly a decade. The Palidans haven’t had an offense since Felton? #40 and Ingle Martin.

Yes and no. As SCPaladin mentioned, we had a decent offense in 2011, but other than that, it's been barren.

The 2011 team, though, was not necessarily built like this 2017 group. Kealand Dirks, Furman's big fullback, is the first Jerome Felton-type of player I've seen in a long time. Felton was probably a little bigger than Dirks, but similar frames and running styles.

It does seem that Dirks has completely bought into Coach Hendrix and what he's doing on offense. I think under Fowler, Dirks was essentially a short yardage back that the coaching staff didn't trust with a bigger work load. Under Hendrix and Drew Cronic, though, he's flourishing. Makes Furman a difficult offense to stop as a pounding running game really doesn't take a day off.

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman is always solid. They won 3 games last year, but only lost 5 by a score (or something like that). There's a lot more parity in the Socon nowadays. It used to be that there were 2-3 teams that just sucked really bad (interchangeably between Western, Chattanooga, Elon, depending on the year) but now it's only one; there's always that team that one team lurking at 4-7 or 5-6 that can beat anyone on any given saturday and on occasion go on a run (Furman's basically been here for the last decade, Wofford was from 2013-2015; Mercer and ETSU are here, the Citadel are as well).

The difference between the Socon now and the Socon 10 years ago is that 10 years ago there were three teams on the top, three teams clearly on the bottom and three teams squarely in the middle (I remember people doing power rankings like a tier system). Even in their down years (with a couple of exceptions), Georgia Southern, Wofford, App State, Furman were never (more than 1-2) lower than that middle tier (Samford has always been in the middle tier, but invertedly has 1-2 years where they break the top).

Now, instead of having 3 tiers, it's more like we have 2-4-team-tiers + VMI. chattanooga at the early part of the season looked like they were going to reaffirm the three tiers, but they've gone through a change of direction in the last month. So I understand Furman's frustration, but I think they also need to understand how much of a razor's edge the Socon is, especially since App State and GSU left. They weren't incredibly terrible in any of their years (even that 3-8 team wasn't bad) and now that they're improved I don't think they'll be head and shoulders above either.

The TL;DR to the above is that the media Socon team is a lot better than they were 5-10 years ago.

[Reign of Terrier]

The 2011 team was sort of the one outlier over the past 10 or so seasons. That was Bruce Fowler's first year, and Furman went back to a north/south run game and high efficiency passing. I'm not completely sure why we went away from that, as the Paladins became one of the SoCon's worst offenses for the 5 seasons after that.

That's the best kind of offense; I wish Wofford ran it, and I think Furman's going to have sustained success going forward because it's such a low risk, high reward style (look at Alabama and Georgia right now; the latter had success over night switching to this scheme). It was painful to watch against a pretty decent Wofford team.

[PaladinFan]

That's the best kind of offense; I wish Wofford ran it, and I think Furman's going to have sustained success going forward because it's such a low risk, high reward style (look at Alabama and Georgia right now; the latter had success over night switching to this scheme). It was painful to watch against a pretty decent Wofford team.

I remember the fourth quarter of the Furman/Wofford game that year. Furman was basically running toss sweep and power at Wofford's defensive front. The Terriers kept their safeties back, ostensibly defending against Furman's TE Colin Anderson, who (much like Andy Schumpert on this year's team) was a touchdown threat down the seam. One big touchdown play would have sealed it, and Wofford knew it.

Watching Furman methodically pick up rushing yardage and knowing the Terriers couldn't add more men in support was the last time I got really jazzed about a Furman offense. (1) run the ball, and (2) throw it enough where teams have to respect that you can, will, and score doing it.

[SCPALADIN]

Yes and no. As SCPaladin mentioned, we had a decent offense in 2011, but other than that, it's been barren.

The 2011 team, though, was not necessarily built like this 2017 group. Kealand Dirks, Furman's big fullback, is the first Jerome Felton-type of player I've seen in a long time. Felton was probably a little bigger than Dirks, but similar frames and running styles.

It does seem that Dirks has completely bought into Coach Hendrix and what he's doing on offense. I think under Fowler, Dirks was essentially a short yardage back that the coaching staff didn't trust with a bigger work load. Under Hendrix and Drew Cronic, though, he's flourishing. Makes Furman a difficult offense to stop as a pounding running game really doesn't take a day off.

Dirks is almost exactly the same size that Jerome was his Senior year and at the NFL combine.
Felton - 6'0" 247
Dirks - 6'0" 244

...that said, I don't think Dirks is really 6'0" ;)

[PaladinFan]

Dirks is almost exactly the same size that Jerome was his Senior year and at the NFL combine.
Felton - 6'0" 247
Dirks - 6'0" 244

...that said, I don't think Dirks is really 6'0" ;)

I agree. Still my favorite Felton video, and really shows just how big that dude really was: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zqi9JKzKWzs

Dirks, regardless of what his measurements may be, is a little smaller and faster than Felton was.

[Mocs123]

When FU played us this year, I kept thinking "Is that Dirks guy a Sr? Where was Fowler hiding him?" I remember we pretty much stuffed any running game you guys had the past few years, but he sure hammered us this year. That was as "soft" of a Chattanooga team I had seen since 2008.

[SCPALADIN]

When FU played us this year, I kept thinking "Is that Dirks guy a Sr? Where was Fowler hiding him?" I remember we pretty much stuffed any running game you guys had the past few years, but he sure hammered us this year. That was as "soft" of a Chattanooga team I had seen since 2008.

We went through the same thing with Chris Forcier. He transferred in from UCLA and Lamb & staff barely played him claiming he didn't know the playbook xeyebrowx.
Our new coaching staff has definitely used the players they inherited to their maximum potential (see Dirks, Schumpert, Wilcox)

[PaladinFan]

When FU played us this year, I kept thinking "Is that Dirks guy a Sr? Where was Fowler hiding him?" I remember we pretty much stuffed any running game you guys had the past few years, but he sure hammered us this year. That was as "soft" of a Chattanooga team I had seen since 2008.

It's one of the great enigmas of Furman football. He predominately was a short yardage back under Bruce Fowler, and would occasionally show up with more pronounced roles (he ran for 170+ last year against Western Carolina).

There were some suggestions of motivation, blocking, or attitude as reasons he wasn't a feature back in Fowler's offense. Hard to know. Coach Hendrix has noted several times that Dirks is fully invested now and is buying into the offense. Whatever happened under Fowler, that seems to be behind him.

He's a junior, so you should see him again next year. Furman, oddly enough, had accumulated a stable of big running backs under Fowler's administration. Wilcox is graduating this year, but Dirks and Gibson will return. There is also the 6'0 225 Deon Sanders who has spent much of the last year rehabbing from a knee injury that kept him out all of last season. Sanders may be the most talented of the bunch, but hasn't been full speed.

[PaladinFan]

Something WCU's announcers (via Coach Spear) picked up on was that Furman's offense has run out of 50+ different formations this year.

Watching the games, Furman is only running a handful of plays. They are running those plays out of literally dozens of different looks. At half time, you see the offense make slight adjustments based on how a defense is reacting to those different formations. Those adjustments open up the offense.

I really think the way to beat Furman's offense is to anticipate the adjustments and try to proactively react. Furman makes that difficult because you still have to guard against the simple fullback run.

[Reign of Terrier]

Something WCU's announcers (via Coach Spear) picked up on was that Furman's offense has run out of 50+ different formations this year.

Watching the games, Furman is only running a handful of plays. They are running those plays out of literally dozens of different looks. At half time, you see the offense make slight adjustment to how a defense is reacting to those formations, and that helps open things up even more.

In more ways than one, Furman reminds me of Wofford's offense in 2007/2008. We ran the option out of 27 different formations (at least) those years.

I'd prefer Ayers and OC Wade Lang bring that back

[PaladinFan]

In more ways than one, Furman reminds me of Wofford's offense in 2007/2008. We ran the option out of 27 different formations (at least) those years.

I'd prefer Ayers and OC Wade Lang bring that back

What's unique about Furman is that they are not running simply a lot of different looks, but doing so with a bunch of different personnel packages. The key, I think, is having a number of guys that are essentially utility players.

So, while Furman isn't doing anything fancy, they can take the same personnel, run the hurry up, and give a defense a completely different look. The players are sort of "positionless." Just because a guy has a position by his name on the roster doesn't mean that is how Furman uses him.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm personally hoping Furman is the 2007 Georgia Southern team more than the 2007 Wofford team

[PaladinFan]

I'm personally hoping Furman is the 2007 Georgia Southern team more than the 2007 Wofford team

Even Georgia Southern fans are longing for those 7-4 seasons.

[NorthChuckSouth]

Wofford @ VMI - 28-7
Citadel @ Furman - xcoffeex
Mercer @ Western - 35-14
ETSU @ Samford - 21-17

[Reign of Terrier]

This thread has not seen light in ~22 hours and needs a bump

[PaladinFan]

This thread has not seen light in ~22 hours and needs a bump

By this point in the season, half the teams are thinking about basketball and Furman hasn't played in two weeks. I'm out of stuff to talk about.

[furpal87]

Quick question to anybody out there...didn't one year a horrid VMI team beat either WCU or App in the last game to keep them from winning a conference championship and maybe even keep them out of playoffs?

[Reign of Terrier]

Quick question to anybody out there...didn't one year a horrid VMI team beat either WCU or App in the last game to keep them from winning a conference championship and maybe even keep them out of playoffs?



The team you're looking for is Wofford 2002.

All of the Wofford players know about it and in the two youtube videos Wofford athletics have released since the Chatt game, it has been mentioned in each (once by Coach Ayers, another by a player).

That VMI team was 6-6, that Wofford team was 9-3 (8-2 against FCS competition).

Given all this, I don't think history repeats.

[PaladinFan]

Quick question to anybody out there...didn't one year a horrid VMI team beat either WCU or App in the last game to keep them from winning a conference championship and maybe even keep them out of playoffs?



Good question. They beat top 15 Wofford in the infamous 2002 season and likely kept the Terriers out of the postseason (though that was a better VMI team).

[PaladinFan]

The team you're looking for is Wofford 2002.

All of the Wofford players know about it and in the two youtube videos Wofford athletics have released since the Chatt game, it has been mentioned in each (once by Coach Ayers, another by a player).

That VMI team was 6-6, that Wofford team was 9-3 (8-2 against FCS competition).

Given all this, I don't think history repeats.

I don't see Wofford losing to VMI, though the Terriers penchant for playing at level pegging with everyone is at least a little cause for concern.

VMI is still getting blown out, but they are not losing as badly now as they were earlier in the season. I don't think they'll score on Wofford enough to win, but you never know what might happen with a few lucky breaks.

[SU DOG]

By this point in the season, half the teams are thinking about basketball and Furman hasn't played in two weeks. I'm out of stuff to talk about.

PaladinFan, you have NEVER been out of stuff to talk about. xlolx

[PaladinFan]

PaladinFan, you have NEVER been out of stuff to talk about. xlolx

I'll get to you next week.

[kdinva]

Quick question to anybody out there...didn't one year a horrid VMI team beat either WCU or App in the last game to keep them from winning a conference championship?



1994: An 0-10 VMI team went into Boone, beat a 8-2 App. State team, Marshall won the SoCon auto-bid w/7-1 record (ASU finished 6-2)....Tommy Haskins had one of his 230 yard games that day.....

[PaladinFan]

1994: An 0-10 VMI team went into Boone, beat a 8-2 App. State team, Marshall won the SoCon auto-bid w/7-1 record (ASU finished 6-2)....Tommy Haskins had one of his 230 yard games that day.....

May the spirit of the '94 team guide you Saturday.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't see Wofford losing to VMI, though the Terriers penchant for playing at level pegging with everyone is at least a little cause for concern.

VMI is still getting blown out, but they are not losing as badly now as they were earlier in the season. I don't think they'll score on Wofford enough to win, but you never know what might happen with a few lucky breaks.
I'd like to think of it as a "score 20 and they are mathematically eliminated" sort of deal. The same was true with Chatt (we just failed to do it). Chatt is a better offense than VMI.

Last year Wofford went up and down the field, gambled on fourth down and lost a couple time, turned the ball over and was up 3-0 through 3 quarters. We won 17-0 but I don't see us going for it on fourth down inside the 20 this week given how poor VMI's offense is (of course I've been wrong before).


1994: An 0-10 VMI team went into Boone, beat a 8-2 App. State team, Marshall won the SoCon auto-bid w/7-1 record (ASU finished 6-2)....Tommy Haskins had one of his 230 yard games that day.....

Oh my God.

[SCPALADIN]

1994: An 0-10 VMI team went into Boone, beat a 8-2 App. State team, Marshall won the SoCon auto-bid w/7-1 record (ASU finished 6-2)....Tommy Haskins had one of his 230 yard games that day.....

I remember that...was my Freshman year. IIRC Appy lost to Boise State in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

[PaladinFan]

I'd like to think of it as a "score 20 and they are mathematically eliminated" sort of deal. The same was true with Chatt (we just failed to do it). Chatt is a better offense than VMI.

Last year Wofford went up and down the field, gambled on fourth down and lost a couple time, turned the ball over and was up 3-0 through 3 quarters. We won 17-0 but I don't see us going for it on fourth down inside the 20 this week given how poor VMI's offense is (of course I've been wrong before).



Oh my God.

Yeah, I don't think VMI is going to score enough. Sometimes in games like this you have to avoid the non-offensive touchdowns and untimely turnovers deep in your zone.

VMI's defense isn't terrible. Their offense is.

[FUwolfpacker]

PaladinFan, you have NEVER been out of stuff to talk about. xlolx


Excellent observation. This is usually how our phone conversations go at least. Paladinfan calls, paladinfan talks a lot, FUwolfpacker gets to say "goodbye"....maybe.

[PaladinFan]

Excellent observation. This is usually how our phone conversations go at least. Paladinfan calls, paladinfan talks a lot, FUwolfpacker gets to say "goodbye"....maybe.

If I didn't call you, nobody would.

[FUwolfpacker]

If I didn't call you, nobody would.

Fair point.

[wcugrad95]

Quick question to anybody out there...didn't one year a horrid VMI team beat either WCU or App in the last game to keep them from winning a conference championship and maybe even keep them out of playoffs?


WCU had 3 seasons in a row where a game in the last week or 2 cost them playoff spots, but none were to VMI in a similar situation to this.
1992: lost to App 14-12 to finish 5-2 and 2nd in Socon and no bid
1993: lost to both App and then Marshall by identical 20-16 scores to end the season and finish 5-3 and no bid
1994: lost to App 12-7 and then ETSU 34-31 to finish 5-3 and no bid

That was the last time we had much sustained success (an occasional 6-5 or 7-4 season, but not consecutively). That was 18 points away from 5 more wins and 3 consecutive playoff bids. Nothing to do with VMI pulling a big upset, but just got me thinking (and is also when I was at WCU). So lots of stuff ***can happen*** at the end of the season - good and bad.

[gofurman]

But as for playoff stuff goes, the way I see it, as strong as the CAA and MVFC is (just glancing, it's possible, it's possible those two conferences by themselves get 10 or even 11), I don't think a 4 loss Samford gets in over any of the 7-4 teams in either conference (CAA could have *5* at 8-3 or better).

I think a 7-4 Furman gets in by virtue of SOS (7 D1 wins, closes losses to top 10 teams, etc). I'd be surprised if a 7-5 Western gets left out. If they win this week they are a lock in my opinion.

So, long story short, if Furman wins this week they pretty much clinch it IMO, regardless of the outcome of the Samford game, whereas Samford needs to win out.

I SO hope you are right youngterrier !

And no need to kill us reasonable fans (PaladinFan, Wolfpacker, me(?) ) bc some are less reasonable... we all have em. And I agree w most on here that FU looks good going forward even if we lost the last two. You can see the difference already. I would HUMBLY (if possible) say we are a year ahead of what I expected.. Let Hendrix get his guys and Staggs get his guys and let Hendrix keeping working with the OL !

But let's focus on the dogs for now

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't think a 4 loss Furman team gets in anymore FWIW

[gofurman]

I don't think a 4 loss Furman team gets in anymore FWIW

not that you and I decide but you think a 4 loss WCU or Samford team gets in?

I mean, I have to think the SoCon gets 2/3 teams in. So they have to take Woff and one or two more. bc if a four loss FU team doesn't get in... what if we lose to Citadel and beat Samford? Then by that logic Samford is out ... Furman is out (4 losses despite beating Western and Colgate and Samford etc) and Western is out if they lost to Mercer. Perhaps a little circular but if you state a '4 loss FU team is out as an absolute' then it's possible the SoCon only sends one team and I just think the committee has to take at least one other SoCon team.. Every bracket I see has the SoCon with two or three teams..

So you see where the 4 loss FUrman theory COULD fail if FU beats Samford and Mercer beats WCU... Don't you think the SoCon is a two or three bid league?

[wcugrad95]

Most brackets I see have 4 SoCon teams in, but those all seem to be "right now" kind of brackets. WCU will most likely end up with 4 losses because we also have an FBS game (UNC) after we play Mercer this weekend. No way we get in if we lose to Mercer. We will be 8-2 against FCS competition with our only losses in OT against a top-10 Wofford (#5 when we played them) and Furman (who got ranked after beating us). That being said, I don't think any 7-win Socon teams get in - Furman would have probably the best argument, but there are so many bubble teams this year that wins are going to factor heavily into both the committee's "eyeball" thoughts and the SRS scores.

And I'll ask this in another thread for broader coverage, but does anybody really know what all goes into the SRS system? I have seen (and even posted) what has been provided that helps determine your WL rating, and I understand the SOS part is really the individual SRS rating of the teams you played. But I see mention of margin of victory is included (but it capped at 21 points and it isn't explained how it is factored in), and I don't see any reference to what kind of WL rating or SRS score you would use for an FBS opponent (I see there is less taken off for a loss and more given for a win for your own WL, but nothing about what to plug in for the FBS opponent's SRS when trying to calculate your overall score).

If I had those, I could go ahead and at least roughly project WCU's SRS and then try and compare it to previous year's posted SRS ratings/rankings.

[UNHWildcat18]

Wofford, Furman, WCU get in IMO.

Samford will finish 7-4
WCU will finish 8-4 with one more FCS win and the head to head. Samford left at home for thanksgiving

[PaladinFan]

Most brackets I see have 4 SoCon teams in, but those all seem to be "right now" kind of brackets. WCU will most likely end up with 4 losses because we also have an FBS game (UNC) after we play Mercer this weekend. No way we get in if we lose to Mercer. We will be 8-2 against FCS competition with our only losses in OT against a top-10 Wofford (#5 when we played them) and Furman (who got ranked after beating us). That being said, I don't think any 7-win Socon teams get in - Furman would have probably the best argument, but there are so many bubble teams this year that wins are going to factor heavily into both the committee's "eyeball" thoughts and the SRS scores.

And I'll ask this in another thread for broader coverage, but does anybody really know what all goes into the SRS system? I have seen (and even posted) what has been provided that helps determine your WL rating, and I understand the SOS part is really the individual SRS rating of the teams you played. But I see mention of margin of victory is included (but it capped at 21 points and it isn't explained how it is factored in), and I don't see any reference to what kind of WL rating or SRS score you would use for an FBS opponent (I see there is less taken off for a loss and more given for a win for your own WL, but nothing about what to plug in for the FBS opponent's SRS when trying to calculate your overall score).

If I had those, I could go ahead and at least roughly project WCU's SRS and then try and compare it to previous year's posted SRS ratings/rankings.

That’s what’s a little unique about the bracket projections - most that I see have both Furman and Samford in the field.

Of course, both Furman and Samford cannot finish 8-3. So, it begs the question of whether they are looking at the field as it exists right now, or where they assume it may be.

I am a bit encouraged after last year. Samford went 7-4 and suffered a truly ugly loss late in the season. Did not seem to matter.

[sudog03]

Did not seem to matter.

I think what mattered is last season we had the best FCS non-conference win (UCA) by far in the SoCon. We will have the same thing going for us this season in the Kennesaw St. win.

[PaladinFan]

I think what mattered is last season we had the best FCS non-conference win (UCA) by far in the SoCon. We will have the same thing going for us this season in the Kennesaw St. win.

Maybe. Generally speaking, losing to one of the worst teams in the SoCon to drop to 7-4 and looking for a playoff bid as a fourth SoCon team was, to that point, unheard of.

My only point is that if you assume Furman finishes 7-4, their resume (on paper) is better than the 7-4 Samford team that made the field last year, and without the embarrassing late season loss. No matter what happens the next two weeks, Furman isn't going to lose to an objectively bad team.

Besides, I think the jury's out on whether KSU is "good" or an inflated product of a weak schedule. They've had some pretty close wins over some pretty crappy teams.

[Terrier19]

I think that the Samford / Furman winner gets themselves into the dance.........barring any surprises this weekend....the other will be sweating bullets on Announcement day.......

Samford looks to have rebounded nicely from the loss to Chatt....That game with Furman will be special........Lots of implications ride on that one...feels good to get to sit back and watch that one from the outside....

[Reign of Terrier]

That’s what’s a little unique about the bracket projections - most that I see have both Furman and Samford in the field.

Of course, both Furman and Samford cannot finish 8-3. So, it begs the question of whether they are looking at the field as it exists right now, or where they assume it may be.

I am a bit encouraged after last year. Samford went 7-4 and suffered a truly ugly loss late in the season. Did not seem to matter.

The difference between this year and last year is the mass of teams that have 8 wins (or potentially will have 8 wins) is higher this year. Last year there were 17, and some of them (Kennesaw) weren't eligible. The ceiling on 8 win teams this year is over 20, with the number possibly being matched this week.

It was kind of a surprise that Samford got in at 7-4 last year, and I think it would be a bigger surprise this year if it happened. I'd say it's almost as surprising if a 7-4 Furman team gets in.

[wcugrad95]

Trying to compare a possible 7-4 Furman team this year versus last season's Samford team would only be really comparable if Furman would have won the Elon game (similar to Samford's UCA win) but then stubbed their toe in the SoCon. Another Furman poster asked about them losing this weekend to Citadel but then beating Samford. That would be very interesting, but in reality it ***could*** lead to neither one getting in. I also don't think any of these are great comparisons because this year there are a lot more teams with compelling stories that are going to be hovering around that bubble line than there were last year.

If it plays out and this game is for the winner to get to 8 wins, the loser will have:
Samford - 6 DI wins, what will be viewed as an ugly loss to UTC, and a 1-2 record against the top SoCon teams. The highlights would be wins over a top-10 team (Wofford) and KSU (may not get in if they don't win Big South and nowhere close to as good a win as UCA was in 2016).
Furman - will have a 1-2 record against the top SoCon teams, and no bad losses. The highlights would be playing some good teams close but losing, and beating WCU who even with 8 wins is a bubble team and Colgate (who might sneak in with a 7-4 record as Patriot champs, but that league could be represented by a champion with a losing record in Lafayette or Lehigh). If Colgate is not the Patriot champ, the FU win there flips from "good" to "ok" at best.

No way the winner isn't in. It is coming down to being too close to call for the loser AND Western (if we don't get 8 no way we get in with 7) until we know the entire body of work for not only these teams, but also for the teams we have all played. Crazy 2 weeks ahead.

[PaladinFan]

Trying to compare a possible 7-4 Furman team this year versus last season's Samford team would only be really comparable if Furman would have won the Elon game (similar to Samford's UCA win) but then stubbed their toe in the SoCon. Another Furman poster asked about them losing this weekend to Citadel but then beating Samford. That would be very interesting, but in reality it ***could*** lead to neither one getting in. I also don't think any of these are great comparisons because this year there are a lot more teams with compelling stories that are going to be hovering around that bubble line than there were last year.

If it plays out and this game is for the winner to get to 8 wins, the loser will have:
Samford - 6 DI wins, what will be viewed as an ugly loss to UTC, and a 1-2 record against the top SoCon teams. The highlights would be wins over a top-10 team (Wofford) and KSU (may not get in if they don't win Big South and nowhere close to as good a win as UCA was in 2016).
Furman - will have a 1-2 record against the top SoCon teams, and no bad losses. The highlights would be playing some good teams close but losing, and beating WCU who even with 8 wins is a bubble team and Colgate (who might sneak in with a 7-4 record as Patriot champs, but that league could be represented by a champion with a losing record in Lafayette or Lehigh). If Colgate is not the Patriot champ, the FU win there flips from "good" to "ok" at best.

No way the winner isn't in. It is coming down to being too close to call for the loser AND Western (if we don't get 8 no way we get in with 7) until we know the entire body of work for not only these teams, but also for the teams we have all played. Crazy 2 weeks ahead.

I'll be the first to tell you that I was stunned to see Samford in the field last year. I imagine everyone was. Maybe there were fewer worthy teams last season (a 6-5 team even made it).

It's not a 1:1 comparison, but if you assume Furman ends up 7-4, I still think they have comparable if not more impressive resume than last year's Samford team. No, Furman doesn't have the win over a top OOC opponent, though I might argue a 3 point loss to a top 10 team isn't that far removed from Samford's one score win over a top 15 team.

Of course, the glaring difference is the ETSU loss last year. Furman isn't going to have a "bad" conference loss to explain. The Paladins also did something last year's Samford team did not, and that is beat a ranked SoCon opponent on the road. Furman has the opportunity to do that twice this year.

[tenNesseeCat]

IF WCU beats Mercer this weekend, and gets a close loss to UNC (something like 31-24). Does that help them at all. I know a W would lock us (oh how sweet it would be to beat another wussy blue team), but would a close loss to a P5 team help our case?

Personally, I'm rooting for FU and ETSU this weekend, and next weekend. That would completely remove Samford and give the SoCon a clear 3 in.

[SU DOG]

Some hoping, referencing back, and looking ahead is to be expected at this time of the year. We all need to remember, however, that unless both FU and SU get wins THIS week, that last game might not be very relevant. The Citadel is not inept and can bite you. ETSU has won some games and showed against Wofford that they are tough and cannot be overlooked, unfortunately we have key injuries, and yeah there is that last year thing. A huge game might be on the horizon, but let's not forget there are BIG games this weekend.

[PaladinFan]

Some hoping, referencing back, and looking ahead is to be expected at this time of the year. We all need to remember, however, that unless both FU and SU get wins THIS week, that last game might not be very relevant. The Citadel is not inept and can bite you. ETSU has won some games and showed against Wofford that they are tough and cannot be overlooked, unfortunately we have key injuries, and yeah there is that last year thing. A huge game might be on the horizon, but let's not forget there are BIG games this weekend.

I think the last game will be relevant to Furman either way.

If Samford loses to ETSU, they are done. Even if they beat Furman, 7-4 with 6 D1 wins probably isn't going to carry the day.

Regardless of what happens against the Citadel, I still think Furman has everything to play for in the final weekend. If Furman can get to 7-4 with two road wins over ranked opponents in their last three games, no "bad" losses, and sitting as the SoCon's #3 team (with Samford eliminated), I still think they are in.

Granted, a lot of that has to do with what happens nationally. I'll be following a lot of those Big Sky, CAA, MVFC games this weekend too.

[Reign of Terrier]

IF WCU beats Mercer this weekend, and gets a close loss to UNC (something like 31-24). Does that help them at all. I know a W would lock us (oh how sweet it would be to beat another wussy blue team), but would a close loss to a P5 team help our case?

Personally, I'm rooting for FU and ETSU this weekend, and next weekend. That would completely remove Samford and give the SoCon a clear 3 in.

The best case scenario for Western's playoff chances are a win next week, a respectable showing against UNC and Samford in the playoffs. No way Western gets left out at 8-4/9-3 with Samford at 8-3

[PaladinFan]

Back on this week's games.

Dan Scott, Furman's play by play man, has indicated the Citadel is bringing 10 bus loads of Cadets to Greenville. With Furman surging, this the last home game of the year, and an in-state rival, you may be looking at one of the bigger crowds we've seen at Paladin Stadium in quite some time.

[Reign of Terrier]

Back on this week's games.

Dan Scott, Furman's play by play man, has indicated the Citadel is bringing 10 bus loads of Cadets to Greenville. With Furman surging, this the last home game of the year, and an in-state rival, you may be looking at one of the bigger crowds we've seen at Paladin Stadium in quite some time.

I think they do this for one away game a year. Last year it was against Wofford. It was homecoming. We lost, but it was hype

[PaladinFan]

I think they do this for one away game a year. Last year it was against Wofford. It was homecoming. We lost, but it was hype

If I were a SoCon official (I am not), I think I would try to encourage the rivalries between Furman, Wofford, and the Citadel. Those three teams share a long history, particularly Furman and the Citadel.

Ideally, you'd want the conference to keep them as a home and away series each season, like Furman used to have with App and GSU with the old "big three." You would also want to try and line those games up for late in the season. They managed to do that this year with the Citadel, but failed to do it with Furman/Wofford.

[walliver]

If I were a SoCon official (I am not), I think I would try to encourage the rivalries between Furman, Wofford, and the Citadel. Those three teams share a long history, particularly Furman and the Citadel.

Ideally, you'd want the conference to keep them as a home and away series each season, like Furman used to have with App and GSU with the old "big three." You would also want to try and line those games up for late in the season. They managed to do that this year with the Citadel, but failed to do it with Furman/Wofford.

The SoCon did some of that when GSU, ASU, and that other team left. Prior to that, Wofford had two "premium" games each year: ASU and GSU in odd-numbered years and the Citadel and FU in even numbered years. The change lead to unpopular schedules for 2013 and 2014 where we played AT Furman, WCU, and Chatty for two years in a row, but did lead to the FU and Cit games being staggered.

Unfortunately, at the same time, the SoCon went to rotating schedules. The older format lead to many teams playing GSU, Wofford, and ASU in consecutive weeks. That has lead to the situation where the Citadel started last year with two conference games, and Wofford starting this year with 2 conference games - it worked out well for both, but it is not what either wanted. Wofford starts next season by hosting the Citadel.

[PaladinFan]

The SoCon did some of that when GSU, ASU, and that other team left. Prior to that, Wofford had two "premium" games each year: ASU and GSU in odd-numbered years and the Citadel and FU in even numbered years. The change lead to unpopular schedules for 2013 and 2014 where we played AT Furman, WCU, and Chatty for two years in a row, but did lead to the FU and Cit games being staggered.

Unfortunately, at the same time, the SoCon went to rotating schedules. The older format lead to many teams playing GSU, Wofford, and ASU in consecutive weeks. That has lead to the situation where the Citadel started last year with two conference games, and Wofford starting this year with 2 conference games - it worked out well for both, but it is not what either wanted. Wofford starts next season by hosting the Citadel.

Imarino has said they are going to schedule the SoCon slate around the non-conference opponents. We aren't very well going to ask South Carolina to move their game with Wofford so they can play Furman later in the season.

I get why they do that. I don't like it, but I get it. I don't mind a conference game early in the season, I just don't like them in week 1.

[gofurman]

Imarino has said they are going to schedule the SoCon slate around the non-conference opponents. We aren't very well going to ask South Carolina to move their game with Wofford so they can play Furman later in the season.

I get why they do that. I don't like it, but I get it. I don't mind a conference game early in the season, I just don't like them in week 1.

I am not a conspiracy guy. Who knew western or Furman would join the top tier this year ?? No one ... supposed to be Citadel at2 and Wofford clear 1

but I did notice Furman played every top,team on the road as it turned out - Woff Western and Samford ALL on road

wofford got them all at home - Fu, Samford and Western all came to Sparkle City

again, it's not a whine. It was supposed to be Citadel and Woff and. wofford went to Citadel. Furman gets citadel at home. Just the way it works. And to that point it means Wofford will travel to all the tough ones next year and Furman get them all at home

That's actually v tough on both Woff and FU as it means every other year its all one or the other. But the teams will change as they did this year and it will sort itself out

One Q - aren't we back to alternating home away for Socon every year ? - There was a year it didn't do that??

[gofurman]

I think the last game will be relevant to Furman either way.

If Samford loses to ETSU, they are done. Even if they beat Furman, 7-4 with 6 D1 wins probably isn't going to carry the day.

Regardless of what happens against the Citadel, I still think Furman has everything to play for in the final weekend. If Furman can get to 7-4 with two road wins over ranked opponents in their last three games, no "bad" losses, and sitting as the SoCon's #3 team (with Samford eliminated), I still think they are in.

Granted, a lot of that has to do with what happens nationally. I'll be following a lot of those Big Sky, CAA, MVFC games this weekend too.

agree - it is POSSIBLE that Furman could get in at 7-4 w a loss to Citadel and a win at Samford. That would be a slightly 'worse' loss but not a bad loss (VMI ETSU maybe UTC) but a much better win at on the road over a top 20 Samford. Then FU would have 7-4 ; losses to top ten Woff by 1 pt, top ten Elon by 3 on last second FG, loss to top 25 FBS NC State.. and Citadel.. but strong wins over WCU at WCU by 21.. Colgate at Colgate (decent but by 30 points !).. and Samford.. again on the road. That would be two top 20 wins on the road which the committee says they give extra points for. And Colgate on the road too. All strong wins on the road.

just agreeing FU could lose to CIt and beat Sam and possibly get a bid. The quick summary would be in 4 games vs top 25 opponents they lost to the top ten by 1 and by 3.. and beat the top 25 by 21 and ?? The kicker would be the Citadel loss but that's a lot of SOS and strong play. If they beat Samford it COULD happen

[SCPALADIN]

Back on this week's games.

Dan Scott, Furman's play by play man, has indicated the Citadel is bringing 10 bus loads of Cadets to Greenville. With Furman surging, this the last home game of the year, and an in-state rival, you may be looking at one of the bigger crowds we've seen at Paladin Stadium in quite some time.

They brought the knobs to the 2015 game in Greenville too.

[ElCid]

One Q - aren't we back to alternating home away for Socon every year ? - There was a year it didn't do that??

With the departure of App St and Ga So, many of the alternate H and A had to be reshuffled. Otherwise some teams would have had a 2 home and 5 away conf season when we were at 8 teams. Mercer was added the year they left. It was something like that. I know we got Furman twice in a role in Chucktown (13/14), and we had to go to WCU twice in a row (13/14). I think we had Samford twice in a row as well. I know there were others but can't think of them all. Again it was all due to the reshuffle of teams in 2014. When ETSU showed up there may have been a reshuffle of one or two, but not sure.

[ElCid]

Back on this week's games.

Dan Scott, Furman's play by play man, has indicated the Citadel is bringing 10 bus loads of Cadets to Greenville. With Furman surging, this the last home game of the year, and an in-state rival, you may be looking at one of the bigger crowds we've seen at Paladin Stadium in quite some time.

Oh my, that's a lot of cadets to descend on Greenville. Probably mostly knobs and the band.

[SCPALADIN]

Oh my, that's a lot of cadets to descend on Greenville. Probably mostly knobs and the band.

I don't remember the band coming up in '15. Pretty sure it was just the knobs and whoever else wanted to go and they had space for.

[PaladinFan]

Good write up: http://www.postandcourier.com/sports/for-citadel-rival-furman-a-quick-turnaround-under-new-coach/article_8ff98282-c577-11e7-b55e-cba5fa490d2d.html

[Reign of Terrier]

Hartsell is one of the good socon writers. Right up there with Todd Shanesy

[PaladinFan]

Hartsell is one of the good socon writers. Right up there with Todd Shanesy

He does a good job of drawing out the differences in what Furman offensively. Furman throws it a lot more than other "option" teams like Wofford/Citadel. They run the QB a lot less.

While the offense feels "new," this is really just going back to what we used to do: heavy dose of the running game, high efficiency passing attack. It was a formula that worked for a long time.

[FUBeAR]

Hartsell is one of the good socon writers. Right up there with Todd Shanesy

Factual error in there though. Coach Hendrix was never a Furman Assistant under Coach Dick Sheridan. He was an NC State OL Graduate Assistant under Coach Sheridan & OL Coach Robbie Caldwell for 2 years and then was hired by Coach Jimmy Satterfield to be the OL Coach at Furman.

Mr. Hartsell hangs around with bellhops all the time though, so we can't really expect him to have more than a casual relationship with the truth, can we? :)

[longtimemocfan]

Wofford @ VMI - Pretty self explanatory. Wofford-31 VMI-7

The Citadel @ Furman - The Citadel can play defense and run the ball, but just hasn’t showed up lately. Furman playing for a playoff birth and playing at home. Furman-28 The Citadel-21.

Mercer @ Western Carolina - Big game for Western. Can they avoid wetting the bed this go around ? I’d be worried a lot more if I was a WCU fan if this game was in Macon. Western wins at home - WCU-24 Mercer-17.

ETSU @ Samford - I think Samford will remember last year and come out firing on all cylinders - Samford-35 ETSU- 17.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

I don't remember the band coming up in '15. Pretty sure it was just the knobs and whoever else wanted to go and they had space for.

I mentioned it before. This game actually has a good memory for me. Not the game itself, but the trip up to Greenville. Went up there in 1982 and afterward, they asked if anyone wanted to go over to Sparklecity to a dinner at Converse. I said sure, why not.
Met my wife that night. Wow, its been 35 years. Holy crap. Oh, we lost the game that day though.

[FUBeAR]

I mentioned it before. This game actually has a good memory for me. Not the game itself, but the trip up to Greenville. Went up there in 1982 and afterward, they asked if anyone wanted to go over to Sparklecity to a dinner at Converse. I said sure, why not.
Met my wife that night. Wow, its been 35 years. Holy crap. Oh, we lost the game that day though.

Yep...bullpuppies didn't pee a drop that day...


62
November 20, 1982
Greenville, SC
Furman
27–0

[gofurman]

Yep...bullpuppies didn't pee a drop that day...


62
November 20, 1982
Greenville, SC
Furman
27–0






Ok, I keep hearing there are a lot of Samford injuries. McKnight etc. who exactly is hurt? Are they out for year or maybe back this week or next ? What of McKnight?

[SU DOG]

Missing the Mercer game were starters: Andrew Johnson-RT, Reid Hulgan-LG, Kelvin McKnight-WR, Sam Pettway-FS, Omari Williams-CB, Dionne Pierre-LB. I think that is all, and I believe(I know nothing for sure) most all of these should be available for Furman if not for ETSU. Obviously McKnight is the one that we desperately need for our offense. I will say, however, that some young kids really stepped up last week and played well. We probably have more quality depth than in previous years.

[Reign of Terrier]

My take is that it doesn't really matter if McKnight plays or not. The air raid is more of a system than even the triple option. To clarify, your stat guys may or may not rack it up in the triple option, but they definitely will in the air raid. So look for a wide out to step up for the Bulldogs in the next couple weeks if one hasn't done so already

[Terrier19]

McKnight is special......Anytime he isn't on the field its a big deal IMO. He and Shelling / Snelling (sorry can't remember which way it is spelled) are dynamic and a force when both on the field. Yes they have a system, but as in every system, PLAYERS MAKE PLAYS IMO. Hopefully, McKnight and the other injured players can return to the field for the Bulldogs.

[SU DOG]

McKnight is special......Anytime he isn't on the field its a big deal IMO. He and Shelling / Snelling (sorry can't remember which way it is spelled) are dynamic and a force when both on the field. Yes they have a system, but as in every system, PLAYERS MAKE PLAYS IMO. Hopefully, McKnight and the other injured players can return to the field for the Bulldogs.

BINGO!

[PaladinFan]

My take is that it doesn't really matter if McKnight plays or not. The air raid is more of a system than even the triple option. To clarify, your stat guys may or may not rack it up in the triple option, but they definitely will in the air raid. So look for a wide out to step up for the Bulldogs in the next couple weeks if one hasn't done so already

It doesn't seem that way, but the air raid philosophically has a lot in common with the option offenses. Both are possession-oriented attacks reliant on small gains and waiting until the defense makes a mistake to break one.

[gofurman]

McKnight is special......Anytime he isn't on the field its a big deal IMO. He and Shelling / Snelling (sorry can't remember which way it is spelled) are dynamic and a force when both on the field. Yes they have a system, but as in every system, PLAYERS MAKE PLAYS IMO. Hopefully, McKnight and the other injured players can return to the field for the Bulldogs.

Right. I get 'systems'. Wolff triple option. Samford air raid Texas Tech air raid. I have seen TTU QBs and recvrs w gaudy numbers not make NFL. Numbers that would make you a shoe in for NFL from any other school. However, even in a system there are guys who change that .... Brietenstein (sp?) at Wofford. He made the system work better, better than others. Same w McKnight - believe me, Samford wants him out there. And I hope he decides to miss a game , as a Furman fan ... Lol McKnight is a great recvr

[PaladinFan]

Good write up on Furman’s offense and the coaches behind it. http://www.furmansportsreport.com/

I really liked this quote:



"I wanted to take the stuff that I knew was the hardest to defend and prepare for. The difference was that we could get just as good of players as we're playing against. We couldn't get that at Air Force."

[PaladinNation]

Good write up on Furman’s offense and the coaches behind it. http://www.furmansportsreport.com/

I really liked this quote:


It will be interesting to see what wrinkles Furman has added over the bye week.

[FUBeAR]

It will be interesting to see what wrinkles Furman has added over the bye week.

I would expect very few new wrinkles. If I know Coach Sher...er, I mean, Coach Hendrix, the bye week was used to polish technique & execution.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PaladinFan]

Furman embarrassing el cid right now.

[ElCid]

Furman embarrassing el cid right now.

I was afraid they might have checked out after last week. Looks like they did. Slow, half hearted effort. Perfect storm for Furman.

[PaladinFan]

I was afraid they might have checked out after last week. Looks like they did. Slow, half hearted effort. Perfect storm for Furman.

I was afraid of a little let down after a bye week, which was common under Fowler. Not the case today.

[van]

Touchdown Furman!

[PaladinFan]

Mercer’s LeMarkus Bailey, just ejected for targeting. Probably Mercer’s best defensive player.

[longtimemocfan]

I like the WCU posters on here, but the Catamounts old nemesis come back to haunt them again. The inability to stop the run when they had to.

[Smitty]

I like the WCU posters on here, but the Catamounts old nemesis come back to haunt them again. The inability to stop the run when they had to.

That and turnovers.... Once again WCU craps a brick and we miss the playoffs.

[ElCid]

That and turnovers.... Once again WCU craps a brick and we miss the playoffs.

Not if you win next week.xthumbsupx

[PaladinFan]

Question I have is whether Furman has done enough regardless of their result against Samford.

Two FCS losses to ranked teams in the final possessions. After the early part of the season, Furman has just about hammered everyone they’ve seen. Only Mercer kept it respectable.

[walliver]

Question I have is whether Furman has done enough regardless of their result against Samford.

Two FCS losses to ranked teams in the final possessions. After the early part of the season, Furman has just about hammered everyone they’ve seen. Only Mercer kept it respectable.

FU’s chances went up after WCU’s loss. If Sammy wins, I think the SoCon gets 3 teams in. If Sammy loses I think we only get two.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[SCPALADIN]

...Citadel sucks 🍺

[ElCid]

...Citadel sucks 🍺

Yeah but like I said, it was part of our nefarious plot to lull Clemson into a false sense of security for next week's game....."That's right Dabo, we aren't very good this year,....we are down,.....these are not the droids your looking for."

Might work....never know.

[OL FU]

Yeah but like I said, it was part of our nefarious plot to lull Clemson into a false sense of security for next week's game....."That's right Dabo, we aren't very good this year,....we are down,.....these are not the droids your looking for."

Might work....never know.

I like your optimism. I hope it works. Hoping wofford pulls it off too.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Question I have is whether Furman has done enough regardless of their result against Samford.

Two FCS losses to ranked teams in the final possessions. After the early part of the season, Furman has just about hammered everyone they’ve seen. Only Mercer kept it respectable.

Caught some the Furman El-Cid game today, and was impressed. Seven-game win streak, and averaging over 40 points a game in that streak. Probably an even better turn-around than Georgia Southern from 2009 to 2010.


BTW, I notice that Furman is #1 in the FCS in passing yards per attempt. When you're running an option offense and can throw like that, it's hard to stop the offense without having significantly better athletes on defense. I think Furman can play with just about anyone in the country.

[PaladinFan]

Caught some the Furman El-Cid game today, and was impressed. Seven-game win streak, and averaging over 40 points a game in that streak. Probably an even better turn-around than Georgia Southern from 2009 to 2010.


BTW, I notice that Furman is #1 in the FCS in passing yards per attempt. When you're running an option offense and can throw like that, it's hard to stop the offense without having significantly better athletes on defense. I think Furman can play with just about anyone in the country.

From what I can tell, the best way to stop Furman’s offense is essentially to match their physicality. I’m not sure a defense is going to outscheme them.

There’s a good article posted above about the creation of Furman’s offense. Essentially, it is the combination of the background of some really impressive offensive coaches.

One thing Hendrix said (paraphrasing) was that the Air Force offense on which Furman’s system is primarily based is hard to stop. Unlike at Air Force, Furman can recruit athletes as good or better than their competition.

[Reign of Terrier]

looking at the Furman-Citadel stat sheet some things pop up off the screen:

this was the perfect storm for Furman for a lot of reason. Chief among them is that they are a better team than the Citadel. Let's break down why that was:

1) The Citadel had a vulnerable pass defense. Of all teams, Wofford exposed them and I think Furman looked at that film.
2) The Citadel had a bad offense this year. Period. Chalk it up to mistakes, youth, whatever; at the end of the day they couldn't score 20 in a game they needed to. That's important for an offense that runs the ball well because it limits the possessions of the opposition, which is particularly valuable against a team like Furman who can score on anyone. Even though they put up 20 points, it was garbage time points
3) Furman's offense was above average (even by their standards!) compared to their baseline in terms of efficiency, which means they were ungodly efficient. They scored touchdowns on their first 7 drives. Don't interpret this comment as taking away from that performance, but just as a general principle that's an outlier performance in the sense that this was an above average day. Maybe on an average day Furman scores 35 or 42 (you get the point), but you get the point. They really are this good.

With that said, if you were cheering for three/four Socon teams in the playoffs today was not your day. Between the Southland having 3-4 teams with 8+ D1 wins, Austin Peay, Kennesaw and Monmouth winning today and the bubble teams in the Big Sky and CAA winning, it's very possible that the Socon only gets two in this year.

If Furman loses next week to Samford they still have a good chance, but let's remember that the committee tunes out after you win a game by 3 TD's. With a crowded field it's less certain, but it's possible that next week is an elimination game between samford/Furman

[PaladinFan]

That may be. I’d put Furman’s resume up against any of the bubble teams, and if we lose to a top 15 team next week on the road and that keeps us out, then oh well.

Furman crushed a team today that had spent most of the season in the top 25.

[wcugrad95]

That and turnovers.... Once again WCU craps a brick and we miss the playoffs.

First, hats off to a Mercer team who didn't really have anything to play for but showed up and played hard. If you would have told me WCU would have over 500 yards offense, score 33 points against the top PPG defense in the league, and hold Mercer to 344 total yards, I certainly wouldn't have thought anything other than a Western win to seal a playoff spot.

But a turnover giving Mercer the ball in the redzone, giving up a TD on a fake FG, and allowing both a big punt and KO return costs the Cats. Gotta pull for the big upset against the Tarholes next week.

[Reign of Terrier]

That may be. I’d put Furman’s resume up against any of the bubble teams, and if we lose to a top 15 team next week on the road and that keeps us out, then oh well.

Furman crushed a team today that had spent most of the season in the top 25.

I agree and I definitely think Furman deserve to be in the field. It's just that, if they are left out of the field with a loss against Samford, the above will be why. They've only beaten one team with a winning record. If they win, they're in. If they are put in the other side of the bracket I'll pull for them. I'll admit I'm intimidated by them.

[wcugrad95]

I agree and I definitely think Furman deserve to be in the field. It's just that, if they are left out of the field with a loss against Samford, the above will be why. They haven't beaten a top 25 team yet (and I'm not saying that to take away their accomplishments; heck Wofford didn't either last year until week 11 either). If they win, they're in. If they are put in the other side of the bracket I'll pull for them. I'll admit I'm intimidated by them.

Correction - WCU was ranked when Furman beat us

[Reign of Terrier]

Correction - WCU was ranked when Furman beat us

correct, edited

[PaladinFan]

But that’s relative. It really depends on when you played a team.

For instance, if Furman had played UTC in week 1 and had the same result, we would have had an impressive win over a top 10 team (like JSU did), except no one knew that UTC wasn’t any good this season.

Wofford beat a top 25 citadel team by 2 points. Furman beats the same Citadel team like a drum a few weeks later.

Wofford only gets the benefit of beating a top 25 team because they played them at a different point in the season than Furman did. In my opinion, that particular stat is fairly irrelevant.

[Reign of Terrier]

But that’s relative. It really depends on when you played a team.

For instance, if Furman had played UTC in week 1 and had the same result, we would have had an impressive win over a top 10 team (like JSU did), except no one knew that UTC wasn’t any good this season.

Wofford beat a top 25 citadel team by 2 points. Furman beats the same Citadel team like a drum a few weeks later.

Wofford only gets the benefit of beating a top 25 team because they played them at a different point in the season than Furman did. In my opinion, that particular stat is fairly irrelevant.

Fair enough.

All I'm saying is that if Furman gets kept out, it's because other teams had a comparable resume with more concrete acheivements in terms of D1 wins. Very much comparable to 2002 Wofford IMO.

If Furman gets left out of the playoffs they are my preseason champ pick for 2018

[walliver]

I tend to go with more of a Gestalt or "gut feeling" approach. Although it is convenient to assign numeric quantities to games, each game is a unique game, and the two teams involved on any given Saturday are different teams than those two squads on any other Saturday.

In retrospect, The Citadel was never really a top 25 team. Elon wasn't the bad team most suspected in September, but also didn't live up to the October hype.

Furman is in with a win next week. IF Sammy wins soundly, the pups are in and FU is on the bubble. If Sammy wins in a close game it gets more complicated, and the 1st SoCon at large team may depend on the outcome of the Kennesaw-Monmouth game (A KSU favoring Samford and a Monmouth win favoring Furman). If Sammy wins, hopefully the SoCon can get three in.

If FU wins, Samford is probably on the wrong side of the bubble.

[gofurman]

looking at the Furman-Citadel stat sheet some things pop up off the screen:

this was the perfect storm for Furman for a lot of reason. Chief among them is that they are a better team than the Citadel. Let's break down why that was:

1) The Citadel had a vulnerable pass defense. Of all teams, Wofford exposed them and I think Furman looked at that film.
2) The Citadel had a bad offense this year. Period. Chalk it up to mistakes, youth, whatever; at the end of the day they couldn't score 20 in a game they needed to. That's important for an offense that runs the ball well because it limits the possessions of the opposition, which is particularly valuable against a team like Furman who can score on anyone. Even though they put up 20 points, it was garbage time points
3) Furman's offense was above average (even by their standards!) compared to their baseline in terms of efficiency, which means they were ungodly efficient. They scored touchdowns on their first 7 drives. Don't interpret this comment as taking away from that performance, but just as a general principle that's an outlier performance in the sense that this was an above average day. Maybe on an average day Furman scores 35 or 42 (you get the point), but you get the point. They really are this good.

With that said, if you were cheering for three/four Socon teams in the playoffs today was not your day. Between the Southland having 3-4 teams with 8+ D1 wins, Austin Peay, Kennesaw and Monmouth winning today and the bubble teams in the Big Sky and CAA winning, it's very possible that the Socon only gets two in this year.

If Furman loses next week to Samford they still have a good chance, but let's remember that the committee tunes out after you win a game by 3 TD's. With a crowded field it's less certain, but it's possible that next week is an elimination game between samford/Furman

I agree a lot of bubble teams won. at least NCAT looks to have the MEAC and Richmond lost. A few others. IF the committee weighs two things they say they do then FU should be in already. Margin of victory - they say that matters, and it should..to a point. I have to think Furman has the number one margin of victory in SoCon. Have to. Second the committee says they look at how you have played later in year. Well, we lost the three (NC State so two FCS games) and haven't lost since !! Not many teams at 7-4 will be able to say they won 7 of last 8 assuming here Sam beats FU

those are listed as criteria. And Furman has the significant edge on Samford in both even if Samford wins next week

[gofurman]

I agree and I definitely think Furman deserve to be in the field. It's just that, if they are left out of the field with a loss against Samford, the above will be why. They've only beaten one team with a winning record. If they win, they're in. If they are put in the other side of the bracket I'll pull for them. I'll admit I'm intimidated by them.

YT, you know I respect your opinion.
But Western had had a winning record. Webeat em. . Citadel was 5-4 today and we HAMMERED them. Beat em like no one else has even come close !!! They are on,y 5-5 bc we beat them today. That's two w winning records right there. We are killing people. We can't help if that no one in Socon has a winning record I guess. Mercer now 5-5 a v good team (Wofford obviously know that ) but really Mercer is 5-4 vs FCS. And they are about to play bama. But 5-4 v FCS A little odd to say a team (Wofford, Mercer, Furman anyone ) is 'not a winning record' if .500 and you played an FBS a or two. That's a tough one in FCS. FBS on other hand gets to a gimme win often by beating an FCS.

Appreciate you objectivity w 'intimidated comment. You guys did a much better job of playing at your level and putting VMI away - nice job. VMI has hung w a few teams. You guys took care of business today. Congrats

two things have stunk for us this year. Who are the probable two best teams we played? Wofford and Elon. Sanford and western next. Samford has a case for top two team I'll admit. As a young team with all new plays and a new 3-4 defense when did we have Woff and Elon? Games 1 and 2. Man. Couldn't it have been even games 3 and 6? Or games 1 and 5? At least one of those two not in first two games. The other was the 'who was ranked when we played em ? Western. Woff. But Elon is legit top 15 and I recall people posting if FU doesn't beat Elon by 30 then fu stinks. Elon was thought to stink at the time. Wrong. Citadel is solid but many teams got more credit for the win bc Citadel was ranked top 15 in pre season. Ranked just behind Woff. Think if FU had beat them in game 4 or so? We are probably 5 spot higher in rankings now just on the beating of 'number 18 Citadel' in game 4. Same with Chatt. They were preseason top 10 or so. If we played that same game 3 games earlier we are again three or four spots higher in rankings. Easy. Just random scheduling could have us at STATS 11 instead of 21. Almost everyone we played was ranked their lowest when we played them..

And thats a shame. Hate to see a team - i try to be very objective - that I see as easily top 15 maybe not make playoffs. Just today (only one game) but Citadel hadn't seen anything like that all year. And that's a fact


YT, heck, last week you posted (fairly) a citadel and Samford game will tell us more about FU. Well, regardless next week we now have 56-20 (49-0 and we pulled starters!!) v Citadel. 35-0 at half. No one else has been pulling starters in mid-3rd q vs Citadel!!!!. We pulled D starters w about twenty minutes left in game but then they scored the 14 so we put a few back to slow it down. Also PJ and starting O were out for entire 4th q. Just a complete dismantling of a very solid team. More than that (Wofford knows) Citadel claims the best front seven in the SoCon. We passed some to,open them up early but later went right back to up the middle every play and they were gassed. We had a run our guy was easily down (I had quit watching) and then he churns his legs and off to the endzone. I have watched for 25+ years and it shocked me. Citadel had no answer

[FUGameBreaker]

YT first was saying Mercer game will tell us alot about FU, then was saying WCU game will tell us alot about FU, then saying Citadel game will tell us alot about FU, now is saying Samford game will tell us alot about FU, all as if the jury is still out on FU, come on give it a rest dude.
That stuff can be said about every team until we have a national champion. The Paladins are good and know what they are playing for next Saturday, a SoCon Championship and a lock into the playoffs.

[Reign of Terrier]

YT first was saying Mercer game will tell us alot about FU, then was saying WCU game will tell us alot about FU, then saying Citadel game will tell us alot about FU, now is saying Samford game will tell us alot about FU, all as if the jury is still out on FU, come on give it a rest dude.
That stuff can be said about every team until we have a national champion. The Paladins are good and know what they are playing for next Saturday, a SoCon Championship and a lock into the playoffs.

Well all of those games did tell us something about FUxcoffeex

I don't think you can doubt Furman is a good team, but blowing out Colgate in the bad Patriot League, Chattanooga when they hadn't had their **** together (blowing them out now is more of an accomplishment IMO), VMI (heck even wofford did it) and lighting up the scoreboard on a bad ETSU defense isn't impressive.

Beating Mercer is kind of impressive as is Western Carolina (in different ways). So is the Citadel...but they kind have a bad offense so I'm not surprised they couldn't match Furman blow for blow this year.

Having said all of that, I think Samford at this point of the season is the best team they'll play (sans NC State). Maybe they're just as good as Wofford (or better, since they beat us), but they are as good/better in different ways.

I'm still waiting to see Furman deliver against a team that can keep pace with them going into the fourth quarter. They've done it a time or two this year but not against a team as good as Samford

[Reign of Terrier]

And Furman has the significant edge on Samford in both even if Samford wins next week

Absolutely not. Samford wins they are in (especially if Kennesaw gets in). That would put them at tied for second in the socon with the head to head over Furman. No way Furman gets in over samford in that situation.

[gofurman]

Absolutely not. Samford wins they are in (especially if Kennesaw gets in). That would put them at tied for second in the socon with the head to head over Furman. No way Furman gets in over samford in that situation.

You are misreading me. I didn’t mean Furman gets in OVER Samford if Samford wins but that in two or more categories that the committee CLAIMS are big factors in that SRS we have a big lead on Samford even if they win .. and the committee should hold to what they say... that 1) how did you finish ? If FU loses they ran 7 wins Out of 8. That’s impressive. 2) And margin of victory - I have to think we are number one there too.
- Just saying we should be in unless Sam kills us. Unless the committeee just lies about Criteria. If they aren’t going to hold to criteria then don’t list them.

[gofurman]

You are misreading me. I didn’t mean Furman gets in OVER Samford if Samford wins but that in two or more categories that the committee CLAIMS are big factors in that SRS we have a big lead on Samford even if they win .. and the committee should hold to what they say... that 1) how did you finish ? If FU loses they ran 7 wins Out of 8. That’s impressive. 2) And margin of victory - I have to think we are number one there too.
- Just saying we should be in unless Sam kills us. Unless the committeee just lies about Criteria. If they aren’t going to hold to criteria then don’t list them.

Read what you quoted. It said ‘Furman has the edge in both (categories) even if Samford wins. Didn’t say Furman takes their place ... just an edge in SRS categories