Socon Week 8 Power Rankings and Pick em

[Reign of Terrier]

1. Wofford:
2. Western Carolina
3. Furman
4. Samford
5. Mercer
6. Citadel
7. ETSU
8. Chatt
9. VMI

(Caveat: Teams 1-6 are really close to each other); also this looks like the actual standings

We have lots of good games on this week

Mercer @ Furman. Mercer has statistically the best defense in the Socon. It's pretty representative of who they are, as they've played more Socon games than any other team. Even though I don't think they're as good as FuBear says, that's not to say they aren't really really good. On the other side of the match up, Furman has the most efficient offense in the conference; in my opinion, they're the best offense because their style of play compensates for their defensive weaknesses better than Western Carolina's. Having said that, the caveat of both Mercer and Furman is that Mercer's defense hasn't played the best offenses in the league, and Furman's offense has routed the lesser defenses of the league in the last month or so. The outcome is gonna be difficult to prognosticate, but I'm going to give the edge to Furman because their offense is more efficient than Mercer's and Mercer has kicking problems. It'll be a tough one.

Samford @ Wofford. I'm going to just not pick this one. Obviously, I'm biased in favor of Wofford but the stat oriented guy inside me says this one is gonna be close. Samford has has our number in the last few years and they're coming off a bye. Wofford just finds a way to win, and they'll want to avenge last year's loss. I think our defense is more conducive to stopping Samford's offense than Western's, but that's not saying much. It'll be a good game, and it's homecoming in Spartanburg.

Western @ VMI; Western by 100

The Citadel @ Chattanooga. I'm picking the Citadel, but really there's only 2 ways this game can go. Either the Dawgs play mad and hungry for the win or they play poorly after a hangover from this tough loss to Wofford. If the Citadel can play ball-control and not lose the turnover battle (like they did tonight), they'll win this easily. Chattanooga doesn't have a run game, and as great as their freshman QB is, that's gonna keep him from being as effective as he could be.

[Toby]

[QUOTE=youngterrier;2547856
Mercer's defense hasn't played the best offenses in the league[/QUOTE]

While I accceed to the premise that my PhD Theory of Statistics courses are vastly inferior to your undergraduate college course in Applied Statistics, I'm almost certain that you are saying here that Wofford has one of the worst offenses in the SoCon. But I could be wrong. But I am confident to a one tail 2 standard deviation of 97.5% confidence interval.

[Reign of Terrier]

While I accceed to the premise that my PhD Theory of Statistics courses are vastly inferior to your college course in Applied Statistics, I'm almost certain that you are saying here that Wofford has one of the worst offenses in the SoCon. But I could be wrong.

Our offense is middle-tier. You didn't catch a contradiction. Western, Furman and maybe Samford have the best offenses in the conference. Mercer has played none of them.

Y'all think because the stats say Wofford has an advantage in category x,y and z and that I cite those stats that I'm just some major homer. But I really haven't talked up Wofford, I've just added scrutiny to some of the teams, namely Mercer.

I'm catching flack for being critical of Mercer because Mercer has done a lot to be critical of. Only Mercer fans seems to care about/radically disagree/disregard this sort of analysis because it makes them look bad.

(Even though I think Mercer is a pretty decent team with a great defense and have said as much!)

[Toby]

Our offense is middle-tier. You didn't catch a contradiction. Western, Furman and maybe Samford have the best offenses in the conference. Mercer has played none of them.

Y'all think because the stats say Wofford has an advantage in category x,y and z and that I cite those stats that I'm just some major homer. But I really haven't talked up Wofford, I've just added scrutiny to some of the teams, namely Mercer.

I'm catching flack for being critical of Mercer because Mercer has done a lot to be critical of. Only Mercer fans seems to care about/radically disagree/disregard this sort of analysis because it makes them look bad.

(Even though I think Mercer is a pretty decent team with a great defense and have said as much!)

Actually. NO. You haven't listened to a single thing that I "think". Not that there is anything wrong with that.......

[Reign of Terrier]

Actually. NO. You haven't listened to a single thing that I "think".

Well to be fair, you edited your post and your original post didn't have much content to it.

Wofford's offense is quite literally smack dab in the middle of the Socon in terms of points scored and total offense (#5 in both categories). I think that's pretty representative of what we've seen thus far.

Meanwhile, the top three in those categories are literally Western, Furman and Mercer in that order.

I'm not going to pretend like I can match statistical wits with a PhD. I'm not doing this as some sort of **** measuring contest, I'm trying to find insight. If you want to toss your hat in the ring and add some (clearly more credible) insight, have at it, I love it. That's why I'm here.

What I have noticed is that three Mercer posters are the only ones complaining about posts and insinuating an extent of arrogance and confidence that I don't intend to express. All because I've pointed out that the ETSU loss does, relatively speaking, bring Mercer down when evaluating similar teams. So if I'm short with response to the snark, that's the full context.

[Toby]

Seems my post is correct. You don't think Wofford has a top tier SoCon offense. I find that odd, but ok. Also, I'm pretty sure that I have been more critical of Mercer than anyone else on this site, particularly as it relates to the Mercer- ETSU game. Third, who in the heck is "ya'll"? I'm confident that I only speak for myself, so just chill....
Congrats on your win.
I think my assessment that the Citadel vs. Wofford game was an emotional "trap" game despite the probabilities was fairly spot on. Wofford pulled it out, but like most Wofford games this year, it wasn't a decisive victory. Much like Citadel's season last year. The margins in the SoCon are fairly tight.

[BearDownMU]

I'm catching flack for being critical of Mercer because Mercer has done a lot to be critical of. Only Mercer fans seems to care about/radically disagree/disregard this sort of analysis because it makes them look bad.


Nope. I think you have been, on all these threads, reading to craft your response, rather than reading to understand what I'm saying. I couldn't care less if you are critical of Mercer, or any other team for that matter. I haven't been talking to you to defend my team. My beef with you this whole way is that you seem to think because you've arbitrarily picked stats you think are most important, and modified them in the way you think is most sound (eliminating certain games from the analysis, for example), that somehow your assessment is superior, or rather, more valid to anyone else's. I'm just saying I think that's a buncha hooey. Use whatever method of evaluation you want, but don't act like it's better because you've talked yourself into the idea that it's "science".

Here's what I think. Mercer's defense is really, really good. Our offense is not. Furman's offense is really, really good. Their defense is Ok. So, unless we can right the offense ship, its going to be really hard for us to beat Furman in their building, not because I don't think our D can hold them to 17 points or so, but because I don't know that we will be able to score more than 14 points on O playing the way we are right now.

See what I did there? No statistical input whatsoever, but equally valid (not more or less) an assessment as yours. That's all I'm saying, partner. You're entitled to whatever opinion you want. But you can't can act like it's superior because you've flipped some arbitrary numbers at it.

[FUBeAR]

Nope. I think you have been, on all these threads, reading to craft your response, rather than reading to understand what I'm saying. I couldn't care less if you are critical of Mercer, or any other team for that matter. I haven't been talking to you to defend my team. My beef with you this whole way is that you seem to think because you've arbitrarily picked stats you think are most important, and modified them in the way you think is most sound (eliminating certain games from the analysis, for example), that somehow your assessment is superior, or rather, more valid to anyone else's. I'm just saying I think that's a buncha hooey. Use whatever method of evaluation you want, but don't act like it's better because you've talked yourself into the idea that it's "science".

Here's what I think. Mercer's defense is really, really good. Our offense is not. Furman's offense is really, really good. Their defense is Ok. So, unless we can right the offense ship, its going to be really hard for us to beat Furman in their building, not because I don't think our D can hold them to 17 points or so, but because I don't know that we will be able to score more than 14 points on O playing the way we are right now.

See what I did there? No statistical input whatsoever, but equally valid (not more or less) an assessment as yours. That's all I'm saying, partner. You're entitled to whatever opinion you want. But you can't can act like it's superior because you've flipped some arbitrary numbers at it.

Y’know...for a Baseball Player that didn’t even have Football at your school, you get this Football thang real good like. While I will have no commentary on the Mercer @ Furman game this week, I have no quarrel with your subjective analysis. It’s hard to argue with anything you posited, unless I wanted to be a real sphincter.


What I do know is that we will see 2 very well coached Teams playing balls out for 60 minutes & both of these Teams will be 2 of the very best 24 Teams in FCS Football. Neither one may win the SoCon & neither one may make the Playoffs, but from what I’ve seen of both of these Teams & the rest of the FCS landscape, so far, this year, they both should be in ‘the dance.’ So very proud to be associated with both & to have played some extremely minuscule part in the success each of these programs is enjoying today & the many successes they will both achieve in the future.

[CID1990]

There's only one trap in the SoCon, and that's thinking that Wofford could be exchanged with Mercer/Samford/Furman at the top spot because they don't blow people out. For all the number crunching going on you'd think all you perfessers would have noticed a pattern with The Citadel the last two years and Wofford this year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dungeonjoe]

There's only one trap in the SoCon, and that's thinking that Wofford could be exchanged with Mercer/Samford/Furman at the top spot because they don't blow people out. For all the number crunching going on you'd think all you perfessers would have noticed a pattern with The Citadel the last two years and Wofford this year.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is spot on. I think what ultimately counts is the W's...

[ElCid]

This is spot on. I think what ONLY counts is the W's...

Yup, but FIFY for clarity.

[PaladinFan]

Stats aside, the Furman/Mercer game is going to be a good offensive team with a decent defense against a good defensive team with a decent offense.

[wcugrad95]

No doubt the game of the week. Furman fighting to stay in contention for a share of the SoCon crown if Wofford slips up, and pressing for a top-25 ranking. Mercer fighting for respect and to stay in the hunt for a possible playoff spot. Then throw in the Bobby Lamb factor, and you have even more to this game. I won't even mention FUBeAR and his affinity for this contest (or maybe he hates it because they are both "his" schools???). This should be a good one.

[kdinva]

1. Wofford:
2. WCU
t3. Furman
t3. Samford
t5. The Citadel
t5. Mercer
7. ETSU
8. UTC
9. VMI


WCU 38; VMI 20
The Citadel 24; UTC 20
Wofford 26; Samford 23
Furman 31; Mercer 24

[FUBeAR]

1. Wofford:
2. WCU
t3. Furman
t3. Samford


5. The Citadel
6. Mercer


7. ETSU
8. UTC
9. VMI


WCU 38; VMI 20
The Citadel 24; UTC 20
Wofford 26; Samford 23
Furman 31; Mercer 24

Typo?

[kdinva]

very slight one....

[wcugrad95]

1. Wofford - have to lose to fall
2. WCU - offense has actually struggled of late, but the D has looked better and they stay here until they lose
3. Furman - seems to be the hottest team in the conference right now, and wants to jump to #2 with next games against Mercer and WCU
4. Samford - it's not supposed to, but bye week causes them to fall. We'll find out if the high-powered offense can put pressure on Wofford
5. Mercer - looking to prove they should be in the top-3 or 4 with games against Furman and then Samford the next 2 weeks
6. Citadel - 3 straight conference losses probably ends any chances of playoffs, so how will they respond?
7. ETSU - better defense than I thought, but still at least a year away from rising towards the top half
8. UTC - talented, but coaches seem to be struggling adjusting to D-I
9. VMI - stays here until they win probably 2 conference games

[tenNesseeCat]

Picks:
WCU vs VMI
The Citadel vs UTC
Wofford vs Samford
Furman vs Mercer

Power:
Wofford
WCU
Samford
Furman
Mercer
The Citadel
ETSU
UTC
VMI

[FUBeAR]

no

Care to show your work?

[PaladinNation]

Some of you know this… FuBear knows far more on this dynamic than I do.
Bobby and Clay go way back and I mean way back.

I'm guessing here but the Mercer/Furman matchup will be turned up a notch from the Lamb/Fowler matchups.

I like BL a lot and you should never count him out playing Furman.
Saying that, I don't expect the lackluster first half performance we saw against VMI.
I expect the FU coaches and players to come out with their hair on fire.
Furman is young, but boy do they respond to these coaches.

[wcugrad95]

@FUBeAR - it is just like many polls having WCU behind Samford even with the head-to-head win by Western. In this case it is a little more of a head-scratcher since Mercer beat Citadel on the road more "soundly" than WCU defeated Samford at home, but everybody has an opinion.

[Reign of Terrier]

Nope. I think you have been, on all these threads, reading to craft your response, rather than reading to understand what I'm saying. I couldn't care less if you are critical of Mercer, or any other team for that matter. I haven't been talking to you to defend my team. My beef with you this whole way is that you seem to think because you've arbitrarily picked stats you think are most important, and modified them in the way you think is most sound (eliminating certain games from the analysis, for example), that somehow your assessment is superior, or rather, more valid to anyone else's. I'm just saying I think that's a buncha hooey. Use whatever method of evaluation you want, but don't act like it's better because you've talked yourself into the idea that it's "science".

Here's what I think. Mercer's defense is really, really good. Our offense is not. Furman's offense is really, really good. Their defense is Ok. So, unless we can right the offense ship, its going to be really hard for us to beat Furman in their building, not because I don't think our D can hold them to 17 points or so, but because I don't know that we will be able to score more than 14 points on O playing the way we are right now.

See what I did there? No statistical input whatsoever, but equally valid (not more or less) an assessment as yours. That's all I'm saying, partner. You're entitled to whatever opinion you want. But you can't can act like it's superior because you've flipped some arbitrary numbers at it.

I've eliminated games from everyone, because conference competition is the most common variable. Though Mercer only lost by 2 touchdowns to Auburn, the 5 turnovers put the game in doubt as an indicator of aggregate performance. You can disagree with me here, but my reasoning isn't "well this makes Mercer look good, therefore I'm going to leave it out." My reasoning is if you look at the history of FCS v. FBS football games, they aren't a good indicator of the FCS team performances, even when teams do well.

Just to run down some of the history behind that: In the last 3 meetings, Wofford lost to USC by 11 points and only won the Socon one of those times; Citadel beat USC and didn't win the Socon outright a couple years ago; Samford was able to score more points against Mississippi State last year than they were against many of their Socon opponents. One could go on. And then when you look at how teams play sub D1 teams or D1 teams with fewer scholarships, the problem is similar in the sense that they pad the offensive/defensive stats for the FCS teams. I can understand if you think I'm excluding OOC because Wofford played poorly against Gardner Webb and (for three quarters) PC. But I openly admit we played terrible against GW and as the weeks pass our performance against PC doesn't look as bad.

The kicker is that if you factor in the stats from those two games, Wofford is still at our about their average, both in yardage and scoring percentage. Meanwhile, if you count Mercer's performance against Auburn, those numbers go down (with the exception of the defensive stats, which stay about the same from a scoring efficiency percentage but goes way up with yardage).

The whole source of this disagreement doesn't come from predicting games, it comes from evaluating the power rankings in the socon. Game predictions are inherently probabilistic in that anyone can be right or wrong on any given saturday. Math is only helpful to give you a baseline expectation of what to expect (but even turnovers can ruin that). Meanwhile, the power rankings can be more precisely assessed through raw data. Standings just look at W/L stats, but when we're doing "power rankings" it's kind of subjective, but I think it can be more precise by looking at long term trends in offensive/defensive performance.

I haven't said that my predictions for outcomes are better than anyone else, but I do think my power rankings are better and answer to criticism better than FUbear's original "math" power rankings from last week, which he used to shamelessly assert Mercer as the third best team in the Socon *based upon current data.* To be clear, I think it's possible that Mercer goes 7-4 and proves to be the second best team in the league in spite of their upset loss to ETSU. But I don't think you can say that mathematically, given the current dataset of game results, stats, etc.

[Reign of Terrier]

As I said, I won't pick the Samford-Wofford game, but I will say this: I don't think it's going to be close. I think the winner, whoever it is, will win by 10-20 points. I'm not saying this as if I've picked Wofford and just won't say it. It's just that 2-3 things makes me think someone has a bigger advantage over the other. Hatcher has always played the option tough and we saw what the Bulldogs did to the Citadel. At the same time, relative to last year, the Samford offense hasn't been at the level of efficiency it needs to be. The game is going to be unlike any Wofford has played this year because it's the first game we'll play where our opponent will try to set up the run with the pass and not vice versa.

Mercer and Furman I think is the second place game of the week. The reason I give Furman the edge is their efficiency. Their efficiency is ungodly, and in my opinion Blazejowski should be the first team all-socon QB over Hodges. Furman's offense reminds me of Wofford 2008 offense which was ungodly as well, all though this team's offense isn't as efficient. As I pointed out in other threads, the weakness of the Mercer offense will let you back in the game in spite of the defense of Mercer. I don't know if there's a "leave points on the field" stat, but if there is one, Mercer is high on that list. I think Mercer's defense will hold Furman to a low efficiency day (less than 50%), but that won't be enough to win the game as that will still be good for 24-35 points. Furman's offense is opportunistic, is good at getting sacks and is probably the average compared to higher tier compared to the defenses Mercer's played thus far (they are better than Chattanooga, ETSU and VMI but probably not as good as Wofford or the Citadel). Just eye-balling that, that would Mercer probably at the 24-28 points range (take out VMI and that's about what they score against opponents thus far). That'll be enough to be competitive, but not enough to win, given Furman's efficiency (and again, I'm just talking about averages here, I could be wrong about all of this, this is just a baseline expectation). So the key to this game, contrary to the first impression, will not be Furman's stellar offense vs Mercer's stellar defense (though obviously that's important); it's going to be Mercer offense against Furman's defense, both of which have solid strengths but also noticeable weaknesses.

If Mercer can have an above average game, limit the amount of possessions, limit turnovers and grind clock, I think they can win (the best analogy is looking at what the Citadel did in the first half against Wofford yesterday). The problem is that they haven't done that yet this year. Mercer has an efficiency problem on offense in terms of getting yardage when they need to; they aren't bad at turning the ball over, but they haven't had a good enough offensive performance when playing a decent offense to compete with. Mercer played one of its best games against Wofford offensively, but the inability to get key yards was the difference. That's the game that I think is most comparable to this one, except the difference is that Furman's offense is much better than Wofford's. On the surface, Mercer's offense played well against Wofford, but they got 10 of their points based upon a good special teams return. I'm not saying this to defend Wofford (it still counts, obviously), but just to put Mercer's offensive woes into perspective.

So I've picked Furman in this game because of the above, but also because Mercer has missed a couple field goals and has probably been held to settle for field goals (I could be wrong on this, I'm just too lazy to look up the stat) more than the average Socon offense. So it's certainly within Mercer's capability to win, but I think given their average performance it's not as likely. With that said, I hope I'm wrong and I'll be pulling for Mercer because I want more breathing room at the top of the conference.

[BearDownMU]

Nope. I think you have been, on all these threads, reading to craft your response, rather than reading to understand what I'm saying.

Thank you for proving my point




I haven't said that my predictions for outcomes are better than anyone else, but I do think my power rankings are better...

Twice

[LarryBoy]

I’m hedging my bets on Furman. I’m really happy that we’re consistently pummeling lower competition, something we haven’t done in years. And our losses are a 1 point loss to Wofford, a 3 point loss to (as it turns out) a very good Elon team, and a “closer than the scoreboard indicated loss to #20 NC State.

We’re doing good things- things we didn’t do during the Fowler era, like running the ball with authority, being creative on offense, getting pressure on the QB, and stopping the run.

All of this with a ton of true freshmen playing key roles, thanks to injuries and a pretty bare cupboard as far as depth goes. So, good stuff.

HOWEVER...

I think our secondary and our youth will be exploited in this closing 4 game gauntlet. We’re prone to giving up big plays in the passing game. And frankly, we need an off week to heal and rest.

So I think that, while there’s a chance we can run the table, I seriously doubt it. If we can finish 2-2, I’d be really hopeful about the direction of this team. Heck, I already am. But I’m not sure we’ve got enough in the tank to go all the way this year.

[Cat-in-GA]

Power Rankings:
1. Wofford - Undefeated
2. WCU - Getting it done without their star RB. This is the best WCU team in years.
3. Furman - Like WCU, a surprise for many in the 1st half of the season.
4. Samford - I expect Samford to spoil Wofford, Mercer and/or Furman's season
5. Mercer - Has Furman, Samford, WCU and Alabama left on their schedule, that a tough road ahead for them
6. The Citadel - Can still play spoiler to WCU and/or Furman
7. ETSU - A good team, but still needs a few more years to put the pieces together
8. UTC - Too talented to be this bad
9. VMI - Started in last place, will finish in last place

This week:

WCU @ VMI - WCU will rest as many of its starters as it can, but will still win convincingly
The Citadel @ Chattanooga - The Citadel will grind out a win
Mercer @ Furman - Furman continues to make it's way towards the playoffs
Samford @ Wofford - Samford may just be the team to beat Wofford

[World]

this one will be close

Chattanooga - 28
The Citadel - 21

[FUGameBreaker]

Seems like a good weekend to call "Separation Saturday" in the SoCon

[PaladinNation]

I’m hedging my bets on Furman. I’m really happy that we’re consistently pummeling lower competition, something we haven’t done in years. And our losses are a 1 point loss to Wofford, a 3 point loss to (as it turns out) a very good Elon team, and a “closer than the scoreboard indicated loss to #20 NC State.

We’re doing good things- things we didn’t do during the Fowler era, like running the ball with authority, being creative on offense, getting pressure on the QB, and stopping the run.

All of this with a ton of true freshmen playing key roles, thanks to injuries and a pretty bare cupboard as far as depth goes. So, good stuff.

HOWEVER...

I think our secondary and our youth will be exploited in this closing 4 game gauntlet. We’re prone to giving up big plays in the passing game. And frankly, we need an off week to heal and rest.

So I think that, while there’s a chance we can run the table, I seriously doubt it. If we can finish 2-2, I’d be really hopeful about the direction of this team. Heck, I already am. But I’m not sure we’ve got enough in the tank to go all the way this year.


I agree Furman's final four games are a gauntlet. Two of the four Furman should be very pumped to play… Mercer and the Citadel.
Furman has their bye week after Western before closing the regular season against Citadel and Samford.

I think the key for Furman is - no - more - injuries. Furman played cautiously with Blaze, Morehead and Gordon. It will be interesting to see if Furman lets it loose against Mercer or do they play it safe?

Furman should benefit from getting AK back soon to give some strength back to the ILB position.

The one aspect of Furman's offensive game this season is the power running game. Dirks (245+), Wilcox (235) and Gipson (225) are a bundle of trouble as a game wears on. It will be interesting to see how teams like WCU and Samford hande the inside part of the Furman offense.

[Reign of Terrier]

Thank you for proving my point



Twice

You jumped to the bottom of my comment without reading my response. If I'm not mistaken, the bolded below is your beef, and I addressed that.

Nope. I think you have been, on all these threads, reading to craft your response, rather than reading to understand what I'm saying. I couldn't care less if you are critical of Mercer, or any other team for that matter. I haven't been talking to you to defend my team. My beef with you this whole way is that you seem to think because you've arbitrarily picked stats you think are most important, and modified them in the way you think is most sound (eliminating certain games from the analysis, for example), that somehow your assessment is superior, or rather, more valid to anyone else's. I'm just saying I think that's a buncha hooey. Use whatever method of evaluation you want, but don't act like it's better because you've talked yourself into the idea that it's "science".

Here's what I think. Mercer's defense is really, really good. Our offense is not. Furman's offense is really, really good. Their defense is Ok. So, unless we can right the offense ship, its going to be really hard for us to beat Furman in their building, not because I don't think our D can hold them to 17 points or so, but because I don't know that we will be able to score more than 14 points on O playing the way we are right now.

See what I did there? No statistical input whatsoever, but equally valid (not more or less) an assessment as yours. That's all I'm saying, partner. You're entitled to whatever opinion you want. But you can't can act like it's superior because you've flipped some arbitrary numbers at it.

I addressed why I used the method I use in that comment for like two paragraphs. I'm not arbitrarily eliminated games. There's a great, nonarbitrary reason to not count FBS games and non-conference FCS. FBS performances are noisy and often unpredictive of how a team will do in FCS and or conference competition. There are too many variables when assessing performance against non-FCS and nonconference competition that a 1-to-1 comparison isn't a sound assessment.

What makes my assessment "better" in my opinion is the concession of these point. Anecdote is not data. Wofford could beat or play USC close this year and I still wouldn't use that performance as statistically significant. We all have the inclination to reach for the best games we've played and ignore the worst and then create a quasi-statistical assessment (and admittedly, mine isn't perfect either) of who is best, and it's often just an intricate covering of our biases. An excellent example is FUBear's "math power rankings" where he put a 3 loss Mercer as #3 in his conference power rankings. The only way that's mathematically justifiable (and to be clear, the only mathematical justification for certain is that #2-5 were tied and at margin of error) is if you quite literally over-weigh their performance against Auburn and under-weigh their loss to ETSU.

There's good reason to not over-weigh the Auburn performance (they still let up 500 yards and 5 turnovers in any context is an outlier) and good reason to keep it. Admittedly, in my formula I would probably weigh Mercer better had they lost to Jacksonville and beat ETSU handily. My "heart" would say that Mercer would probably we worse than they are now, but my head would say, given the formula, Mercer was still at the same level.

TL;DR:
Prognostication is arbitrary and subjective in terms of weighing the margin of error in rankings and scoring outcomes, but a mathematical method is a solid way to extrapolate a baseline expectation. The difference between my method and others is that I use the math and I show my work. I don't postulate "well maybe x team is better than they were 3 weeks ago" because that's unmeasurable. I weight it when I make my picks (which is *admittedly* biased), but my point in these posts is creating a baseline. We can be more precise in our analysis than "this team has a good offense and this team has a good defense" and I'm trying to add that nuance.

[FurmanWins!!]

Guessing that all WCU and FU fans are also Samford fans this week xnodx

[woffordgrad94]

If Wofford can get past Samford- a very big IF- they will likely go unbeaten in FCS play as they get to finish with the three bottom teams in the conference. That is why fans of other schools really do need to root HARD for the Bulldogs to win.

[PaladinFan]

If Wofford can get past Samford- a very big IF- they will likely go unbeaten in FCS play as they get to finish with the three bottom teams in the conference. That is why fans of other schools really do need to root HARD for the Bulldogs to win.

Still my opinion, but UTC has too much talent to suck.

They are a bottom team, but unlike some others, they have the firepower to win games if they show up.

[woffordgrad94]

1. Wofford
2. WCU
3. Samford
4. Furman
5. Mercer
6. The Citadel
7. ETSU
8. Chattanooga
9. VMI

Samford 25, Wofford 24: it’s hard to go unbeaten in this conference, and playing all these close games is bound to bite you in the ass at some point. The S-Bulldogs are very good and they make the conference title race more interesting.

The Citadel 27, Chattanooga 17: C-Bulldogs wear down the Mocs over four quarters

Furman 38, Mercer 21: Furman is the hottest team in the conference

WCU 49, VMI 14: No comment

[woffordgrad94]

Still my opinion, but UTC has too much talent to suck.

They are a bottom team, but unlike some others, they have the firepower to win games if they show up.
And yet they do suck. I think Woffford beats them. maybe not by as much as Wofford fans would like, but I don’t think we lose to them, especially if we’re coming off a loss to Samford and the game becomes a must win...that’s my opinion.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm inclined to think UTC will sneak up on somebody, but until they develop a run game, it's just not going to happen. It would be one thing if their pass offense was remarkable, but it's statistically indistinguishable from the middle of the pack passing teams.

They're also last in the conference in sacks allowed and pass efficiency offense and near the bottom in total offense (8th).

Basically, they are getting their butt kicked in the trenches. They may have athleticism, but I don't think its concentrated on the OL, and that's the source of their problems. Maybe they'll get some yards on a not-quite-100% ETSU team, but I don't think they are getting anywhere on Wofford, Samford or the Citadel.

[BearDownMU]

The source of their issues are that no one is playing very hard and they don't look like they want to be out there. Find me some stats for that, and we'd have a relevant metric to discuss.

[Reign of Terrier]

It shows up in the stats...

[FUBeAR]

The source of their issues are that no one is playing very hard and they don't look like they want to be out there. Find me some stats for that, and we'd have a relevant metric to discuss.

L L L L L L

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/919620180703096832

[SCPALADIN]

I’m hedging my bets on Furman. I’m really happy that we’re consistently pummeling lower competition, something we haven’t done in years. And our losses are a 1 point loss to Wofford, a 3 point loss to (as it turns out) a very good Elon team, and a “closer than the scoreboard indicated loss to #20 NC State.

We’re doing good things- things we didn’t do during the Fowler era, like running the ball with authority, being creative on offense, getting pressure on the QB, and stopping the run.

All of this with a ton of true freshmen playing key roles, thanks to injuries and a pretty bare cupboard as far as depth goes. So, good stuff.

HOWEVER...

I think our secondary and our youth will be exploited in this closing 4 game gauntlet. We’re prone to giving up big plays in the passing game. And frankly, we need an off week to heal and rest.

So I think that, while there’s a chance we can run the table, I seriously doubt it. If we can finish 2-2, I’d be really hopeful about the direction of this team. Heck, I already am. But I’m not sure we’ve got enough in the tank to go all the way this year.

Hopefully we'll be getting two of our CBs back this week.

[NorthChuckSouth]

Mercer @ Furman - 42-28
Samford @ Wofford - 21-17
WCU @ VMI - 52-6
Citadel @ Chattanooga - xcoffeex

[cx500d]

WCU
The Citadel
Samford
Mercer

[longtimemocfan]

Still my opinion, but UTC has too much talent to suck.

They are a bottom team, but unlike some others, they have the firepower to win games if they show up.

Wish this were true. Not sure if we will show up at all this year. Coaching staff doesn’t know how to instill fire and create passion the players need to have. The Mocnation message board has more posts the last couple of weeks than I’ve ever seen it have from fans appalled at direction this program is heading.

[PaladinFan]

Hopefully we'll be getting two of our CBs back this week.

The injury issues are critical, I think. It seemed to me that Furman was trying to protect a lot of guys on Saturday against VMI, limiting their touches and pulling the starters as soon as the game was largely in control. I understand Furman limited a lot of guys in practice, which may have explained a bit the slow start against the Keydets.

I will be interested to see how many of those guys we can expect back at full speed.

[PaladinNation]

The injury issues are critical, I think. It seemed to me that Furman was trying to protect a lot of guys on Saturday against VMI, limiting their touches and pulling the starters as soon as the game was largely in control. I understand Furman limited a lot of guys in practice, which may have explained a bit the slow start against the Keydets.

I will be interested to see how many of those guys we can expect back at full speed.

This Furman coaching staff has masterfully built defensive depth - that didn't exist in a game one when the Paladin D was gassed. Furman now has three defensive line groups. I'm pretty sure I'm right in the fourth-quarter Furman had at times 9 freshmen on the field. Really excited about the upside of these tall-lanky defensive freshmen… Dillion Vann for one.

I think Furman will be fine - if - they can get Gordon back into his role and Luke and Wynn can give Furman that triple-headed monster at tailback. btw… Furman is doubling down on the tailback/z positions, they've already scored four commits at those two positions.

Furman barely used the z in the running game against VMI - since they were down to DeLuca. Gordon just played on a few select plays and Rogers wasn't in pads.

[PaladinFan]

This Furman coaching staff has masterfully built defensive depth - that didn't exist in a game one when the Paladin D was gassed. Furman now has three defensive line groups. I'm pretty sure I'm right in the fourth-quarter Furman had at times 9 freshmen on the field. Really excited about the upside of these tall-lanky defensive freshmen… Dillion Vann for one.

I think Furman will be fine - if - they can get Gordon back into his role and Luke and Wynn can give Furman that triple-headed monster at tailback. btw… Furman is doubling down on the tailback/z positions, they've already scored four commits at those two positions.

Furman barely used the z in the running game against VMI - since they were down to DeLuca. Gordon just played on a few select plays and Rogers wasn't in pads.

I was a bit disappointed in how the team started the VMI game, but when you start getting info about some of the injuries and player limitations, you realize that Furman thumped VMI playing with essentially a skeleton crew.

You could easily see Blazejowski wasn't full speed. He did a really good job of avoiding unnecessary contact all afternoon. I also got the distinct impression that the play calling tried to protect Morehead and Gordon, who had a combined 7 touches out of 78 plays.

Even with all of that, Furman ran for 354 yards on 61 carries. 46 of those carries (75%) went to Dirks, Wilcox, Gibson, and Sanders. So, Furman was able to pile up huge rushing yards basically running the fullback behind the guard most of the game. From that perspective, the game couldn't have gone much better. The Paladins were able to build a lead, get their key guys out of the game, and spend most of the contest just barreling the ball up the middle.

[wcugrad95]

Depth and resting players is an interesting topic. The SoCon right now is such a balanced league that it is easy to slip-up against any of the top-7 teams, and about the time somebody takes UTC for granted that will be the week they show up and surprise or possibly blow somebody's doors off. WCU had a half like that against ETSU. We were playing our 3rd string RB, and the Bucs sold out on stopping Adams for 2 quarters. In the second half we got the running game going and then that RS Freshman (Spencer) ended the game with 139 yards and 4 TDs (should at least be considered for SoCon offensive player of the week).

The really impressive thing about Furman is the next-man-up seems to often be a Freshman stepping up for another underclassman. Coach Hendrix seems to have them poised for a good run for the foreseeable future. They are competing for a top 2 or 3 spot this season and a possible playoff run, and would seem to be scary good the next couple of years.

[PaladinFan]

You do make a good point about defensive depth, too. I thought one of the great failings of the Fowler staff was the ability to develop depth. That seems to be a primary focus of Hendrix's staff.

Vann may end up being a steal. He was a really good player on a top program in Georgia. I believe he lost his senior season to a knee injury, which may have kept him off a lot of radars.

[PaladinFan]

Depth and resting players is an interesting topic. The SoCon right now is such a balanced league that it is easy to slip-up against any of the top-7 teams, and about the time somebody takes UTC for granted that will be the week they show up and surprise or possibly blow somebody's doors off. WCU had a half like that against ETSU. We were playing our 3rd string RB, and the Bucs sold out on stopping Adams for 2 quarters. In the second half we got the running game going and then that RS Freshman (Spencer) ended the game with 139 yards and 4 TDs (should at least be considered for SoCon offensive player of the week).

The really impressive thing about Furman is the next-man-up seems to often be a Freshman stepping up for another underclassman. Coach Hendrix seems to have them poised for a good run for the foreseeable future. They are competing for a top 2 or 3 spot this season and a possible playoff run, and would seem to be scary good the next couple of years.

I think that's what has a lot of Furman faithful looking forward to the future. This is firmly a rebuilding year for Furman.

You get another solid recruiting class or two, another year in the "system", and the Paladins could be well positioned.

[tenNesseeCat]

The injury issues are critical, I think. It seemed to me that Furman was trying to protect a lot of guys on Saturday against VMI, limiting their touches and pulling the starters as soon as the game was largely in control. I understand Furman limited a lot of guys in practice, which may have explained a bit the slow start against the Keydets.

I will be interested to see how many of those guys we can expect back at full speed.

I would think WCU might be doing some of the same this week vs VMI. We don't get a bye this year, due to playing Hawaii in the 12 game schedule. We can't take the week off by any means, but we need to heal up some.

[Reign of Terrier]

All this talk about injuries, but *knocks on wood* Wofford has been relatively healthy all year. The only big injury that's seen someone miss extended time was our center Roo Daniel who didn't play until the Western Carolina game with a knee injury, but then got a hairline fracture on his arm/wrist in that game. He had surgery and may be back in the next couple of weeks.

All of that is *knock on wood* of course.

[PaladinFan]

Just another thought.

Going forward, I think Furman and Mercer are under the least amount of pressure of the contending teams. This was largely a rebuilding year for both programs. Furman, in particular, has exceeded expectations. Mercer, I think, will meet expectations as long as they don't continue a trend of losing leads late in the fourth quarter, which is daggers in the eyes of a fan base.

WCU might have some more pressure given the open window of talent. Tyrie Adams is a sophomore, but this is the last hurrah for Newsom, Robinson, and Hill. While they will return some talented players, they will lose a lot of their offensive potency to graduation. There may be some pressure to win while all of these guys are in uniform.

The most pressure, I think, is on Samford and Wofford. They are the most experienced teams. They had the preseason accolades. They were expected to be in contention. You would think that anything short of the winning at least one game in the post season would be a major disappointment for both programs.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer, I think, will meet expectations as long as they don't continue a trend of losing leads late in the fourth quarter

You know this is #FakeNews. You've studied the trend analysis work of BearDownMU published on other academic sites.

[PaladinFan]

You know this is #FakeNews. You've studied the trend analysis work of BearDownMU published on other academic sites.

We can agree to disagree.

[Catamount87]

Power Rankings
1. Wofford - top teams find a way to win and they continue to do that, especially the last two weeks
2a. WCU - did it with defense again
2b. Furman - peaking at the right time of the season which sets up a huge battle for Oct 28th
2c. Samford - rested up for the battle coming up, Wofford
.
.
.
5. ETSU - they played tough and proved once again they can't be taken lightly
6. Mercer - handled the Mocs easily. Statistically they are better than their record
7. Citadel - couldn't seem to hold it together against Wofford
8. Chatt - from top 10 to 1 and 10? It's looking likely.
9. VMI - I got nothing, nor do the roos



Predictions
Mercer @ Furman - Neither will show mercy in this game. The Paladins are firing on all cylinders right now.


Samford @ Wofford - Samford has picked up the defensive play and rushing attack since the WCU loss, albeit against lesser competition. Wofford pulls out another one.


WCU @ VMI - The Cats find some offensive rhythm again, rotate players to gain experience and rest up the injured. Can the Catamount defense pitch a shut out finally?


Citadel @ UTC - Battle of the fallen, the Mocs have fallen way to far to hold off the coastal dogs

[BearDownMU]

Going forward, I think Furman and Mercer are under the least amount of pressure of the contending teams. This was largely a rebuilding year for both programs.

Rebuilding year for Mercer? I think I'd need some clarification on that.

[PaladinFan]

Rebuilding year for Mercer? I think I'd need some clarification on that.

Mercer lost all of their large senior class, the guy who basically owns all of their offensive records, and is starting a freshman quarterback.

I mean, its your team. If you want the increased pressure to win, I can be convinced.

[SU DOG]

Preseason accolades for Samford? I never saw anything better than a 3rd place pick, and several lower than that.

[PaladinFan]

Preseason accolades for Samford? I never saw anything better than a 3rd place pick, and several lower than that.

in the coaches poll, they were third place by two votes. They had the offensive player of the year. They had six players on the first team. By my count, that was the most preseason first team spots of any team in the SoCon.

[PaladinNation]

I think that's what has a lot of Furman faithful looking forward to the future. This is firmly a rebuilding year for Furman.

You get another solid recruiting class or two, another year in the "system", and the Paladins could be well positioned.

One knock on Furman and rightly so has been… do they have the talent on the field that scares the opposition? For a long time there we played slow and predictable or so complex we suffered in identity.

Hendrix's from the very beginning seemed to have an identity of what he saw as Paladin Football. FuBear can speak more too this but I'm guessing it's step-in-step with the Sheridan era.

If commits hold - based on what's on the field now and combining the commits already in the fold. Future Furman teams will be far more athletic and physical in the trenches. Now if we can keep JMU from stealing our QB commit.

[FUBeAR]

http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-footbl/2017-18/releases/20171016guvhx3

Football Rivals From Fifty-Three Yards, Friends For Life

[FUGameBreaker]

http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-footbl/2017-18/releases/20171016guvhx3

Football Rivals From Fifty-Three Yards, Friends For Life




Nice read!

[BearDownMU]

Mercer lost all of their large senior class, the guy who basically owns all of their offensive records, and is starting a freshman quarterback.

I mean, its your team. If you want the increased pressure to win, I can be convinced.

I wasn't trying to be adversarial, just curious as to how you got there. I personally never thought of this as a rebuilding year. Yes, there was a big senior class that was lost, and I love and appreciate everything those men did to get the program going, but as far as starters and "snaps" lost, Russ was really the glaring departure. Also Robert Brown, Tyler Ward, Tosin Aguebor, Bret Neiderreither, Kirby Southard, Avery White. But I feel like, from a pure talent standpoint, as good if not better on the defensive side. RB is crazy better because everyone was hurt last year. Skill players are some of the best in the league (WR and TE) Certainly the Oline losses really hurt (Bret, Kirby, Avery) and I think we are seeing some of that with the offensive struggles. And breaking in a new QB is tough, but unless losing a long time starting QB always puts you in rebuilding mode, I wouldn't have classified us that way.

I think that's part of the frustration level with a lot of fans because we knew (with Russ being gone the glaring exception) the cupboard was far from bare coming back into this year. I fully expected this to be a competing for the league title kind of team, just from a talent standpoint.

And it's amazing how much one game matters, because if the ETSU game goes a different way, I think the opinion and feeling about this team is completely different. I mean, completely. Probably ranked.

But I never thought of this as a rebuilding year.

[PaladinFan]

I wasn't trying to be adversarial, just curious as to how you got there. I personally never thought of this as a rebuilding year. Yes, there was a big senior class that was lost, and I love and appreciate everything those men did to get the program going, but as far as starters and "snaps" lost, Russ was really the glaring departure. Also Robert Brown, Tyler Ward, Tosin Aguebor, Bret Neiderreither, Kirby Southard, Avery White. But I feel like, from a pure talent standpoint, as good if not better on the defensive side. RB is crazy better because everyone was hurt last year. Skill players are some of the best in the league (WR and TE) Certainly the Oline losses really hurt (Bret, Kirby, Avery) and I think we are seeing some of that with the offensive struggles. And breaking in a new QB is tough, but unless losing a long time starting QB always puts you in rebuilding mode, I wouldn't have classified us that way.

I think that's part of the frustration level with a lot of fans because we knew (with Russ being gone the glaring exception) the cupboard was far from bare coming back into this year. I fully expected this to be a competing for the league title kind of team, just from a talent standpoint.

And it's amazing how much one game matters, because if the ETSU game goes a different way, I think the opinion and feeling about this team is completely different. I mean, completely. Probably ranked.

But I never thought of this as a rebuilding year.

From watching Mercer a bit, I think they have a good team. Riley is still figuring it out a bit, but he has a lot of weapons in the passing game. Mercer has one of the better receiving corps in the SoCon (probably behind WCU and Samford and about even with Furman, in my opinion). I don't think their running game has been quite as advertised, and that may be somewhat related to a rebuilt offensive line.

Defensively, they are sound. I think their strong defense and particularly their ability to force turnovers has helped the offense a little bit. I'm interested to see how that defense stacks up against Furman this weekend. The Paladins are the first of three good offenses Mercer will see over their next three games.

The ETSU contest is a hard one to overlook. I've long said this about Furman, but you reach a point as a program where to get people to take you seriously on a national scale, there are some games you just cannot lose. ETSU is one of those games.

[FUBeAR]

Power Rankings
1. Wofford - Enjoy the view...for now.
4. WCU - Tests are on the horizon. Study hard.
5. Samford - I'm expecting some upward movement from these dogs. I see them lifting their legs high this week.
6. THE Citadel - Took grit for this PROUD bunch to almost (coulda, shoulda, woulda) beat Woffy after getting mauled and mangled by Mercer and Samford the prior 2 weeks
7. ETSU - Winning Record is possible. Maybe even another upset up their puffy sleeves?
8. Chatt - Talent is there. Effort and HEART were left in San Francisco or some place from which they transferred
9. VMI - Played a good half; Some tough finishing holes on a tough course. I birdied #18 last time I played. Shot a 146. C'mon Roos, make it interesting!


Predictions
Samford @ Wofford - 27-24. If the bellhops can hold the PorchYappers to under 100 yards rushing, then Samford has a chance to do the same, but will win. Lift it high Bulldogs!
WCU @ VMI - 42-14. Cats keep scratchin'....Fur balls ahead?
Citadel @ UTC - 24-20. Just don't think Chatt's Players can play with enough Heart, right now, to contend with the Bellhops brand of Football. It may get uglier than this, much uglier.


Oh...Also...asking for a friend...

My friend has a Dad and a Son. Let's call the Dad "Frank" & the son "Mark" (not their real names). Now, Frank & Mark have decided that they want to have a knock-down, drag-out, bare-knuckles brawl with one another in Frank's backyard this coming Saturday.

Both Frank and Mark have 'corner men' that will be actively participating in this fight. Frank's 'corner-man' (Let's call him "Carl" - not his real name) is my friend's younger brother and Mark's 'corner-man' (Let's call him "Bill" - not his real name) is my friend's favorite nephew.

This does get even a bit more complicated in that my friend's other son (Let's call him "67") was invited by Carl to live with him for a while when he was out west, but 67 ended up moving back east and then Bill asked 67 to come live with him and Mark...and he still lives there.

Now my friend has always loved his Dad, Frank, and he has always loved his many, many brothers that also love Frank. They are a close <F>amily and my friend has always been very active with them.

But when Mark was born, he was just so very small and needed a lot of care. My friend took a very active role in helping Mark grow up. And with his other son, 67, living with Mark and Bill, he's grown very attached to them also.

Who should my friend want to win this fight? Frank or Mark?

[tenNesseeCat]

Who should my friend want to win this fight? Frank or Mark?

He should pull for them to beat the snot out of each other. That way they aren't as much of a threat to those around them, for a while. Their very nice neighbor that lives up the street is trying to go to the playground, and he doesn't want to run into any tough characters on the way. Will is his name, and he has to go by both of their houses to get to the playground. Will really wants to go to the playground. He hasn't been in over 30 years. Help Will out, and root for nothing left slug fest that ends in a tie.

[BearDownMU]

Power Rankings
1. Wofford - Enjoy the view...for now.
4. WCU - Tests are on the horizon. Study hard.
5. Samford - I'm expecting some upward movement from these dogs. I see them lifting their legs high this week.
6. THE Citadel - Took grit for this PROUD bunch to almost (coulda, shoulda, woulda) beat Woffy after getting mauled and mangled by Mercer and Samford the prior 2 weeks
7. ETSU - Winning Record is possible. Maybe even another upset up their puffy sleeves?
8. Chatt - Talent is there. Effort and HEART were left in San Francisco or some place from which they transferred
9. VMI - Played a good half; Some tough finishing holes on a tough course. I birdied #18 last time I played. Shot a 146. C'mon Roos, make it interesting!


Predictions
Samford @ Wofford - 27-24. If the bellhops can hold the PorchYappers to under 100 yards rushing, then Samford has a chance to do the same, but will win. Lift it high Bulldogs!
WCU @ VMI - 42-14. Cats keep scratchin'....Fur balls ahead?
Citadel @ UTC - 24-20. Just don't think Chatt's Players can play with enough Heart, right now, to contend with the Bellhops brand of Football. It may get uglier than this, much uglier.


Oh...Also...asking for a friend...

My friend has a Dad and a Son. Let's call the Dad "Frank" & the son "Mark" (not their real names). Now, Frank & Mark have decided that they want to have a knock-down, drag-out, bare-knuckles brawl with one another in his Frank's backyard this coming Saturday.

Both Frank and Mark have 'corner men' that will be actively participating in this fight. Frank's 'corner-man' (Let's call him "Carl" - not his real name) is my friend's younger brother and Mark's 'corner-man' (Let's call him "Bill" - not his real name) is my friend's favorite nephew.

This does get even a bit more complicated in that my friend's other son (Let's call him "67") was invited by Carl to live with him for a while when he was out west, but 67 ended up moving back east and then Bill asked 67 to come live with him and Mark...and he still lives there.

Now my friend has always loved his Dad, Frank, and he has always loved his many, many brothers that also love Frank. They are a close <F>amily and my friend has always been very active with them.

But when Mark was born, he was just so very small and needed a lot of care. My friend took a very active role in helping Mark grow up. And with his other son, 67, living with Mark and Bill, he's grown very attached to them also.

Who should my friend want to win this fight? Frank or Mark?

I've always been kind of partial to Mark. Good guy.

[Catamount87]

Another vote for Mark. Of course Catamounts would be a bit partial to the name Mark. :D


Power Rankings
...4. WCU - Tests are on the horizon. Study hard....

Man do you have that ever right but so does Furman and Samford.

WCU
@ VMI
Furman (homecoming at that)
@ Citadel
Mercer
@ UNC

Furman
Mercer
at WCU
Citadel
at Samford

Samford
@ Wofford
Chatt
@ Mercer
ETSU
Furman

Furman has a bit more difficult time but lucky for them they are peaking at the right time with the injury situation behind them. We peaked early and are in the middle of the injury bug. Samford has probably the toughest closing stretch of the three.

No matter how we slice it, the next 4-5 weeks are going to be REALLY interesting!

[Sir William]

Oh...Also...asking for a friend...

My friend has a Dad and a Son. Let's call the Dad "Frank" & the son "Mark" (not their real names). Now, Frank & Mark have decided that they want to have a knock-down, drag-out, bare-knuckles brawl with one another in Frank's backyard this coming Saturday.

Both Frank and Mark have 'corner men' that will be actively participating in this fight. Frank's 'corner-man' (Let's call him "Carl" - not his real name) is my friend's younger brother and Mark's 'corner-man' (Let's call him "Bill" - not his real name) is my friend's favorite nephew.

This does get even a bit more complicated in that my friend's other son (Let's call him "67") was invited by Carl to live with him for a while when he was out west, but 67 ended up moving back east and then Bill asked 67 to come live with him and Mark...and he still lives there.

Now my friend has always loved his Dad, Frank, and he has always loved his many, many brothers that also love Frank. They are a close <F>amily and my friend has always been very active with them.

But when Mark was born, he was just so very small and needed a lot of care. My friend took a very active role in helping Mark grow up. And with his other son, 67, living with Mark and Bill, he's grown very attached to them also.

Who should my friend want to win this fight? Frank or Mark?

I feel ya, FUBear, but you failed to mention the following...

Frank's been in the hospital the past 6 years, at times in seemingly critical condition. Now, Frank is doing much better, and he's out of the hospital and getting back up to full speed. Moreover, his recovery is moving faster than people even expected.

What's worth noting is that during the last two years of Frank's stay in the hospital, that little punk Mark came in and punched Frank in the gut twice.

Frank's looking forward to Mark's upcoming visit, for sure.

Tell your "friend" that if he has to choose, his heart should be with Frank. 👍 😀.

[FUBeAR]

Another vote for Mark. Of course Catamounts would be a bit partial to the name Mark. :D



Man do you have that ever right but so does Furman, Mercer, and Samford, and Wofford.

Furman
Mercer
at WCU
Citadel
at Samford

Mercer
@ Furman
Samford
@ WCU
@ Alabama

Samford
@ Wofford
Chatt
@ Mercer
ETSU
Furman

WCU
@ VMI
Furman (homecoming at that)
@ Citadel
Mercer
@ UNC

Wofford
Samford
@ ETSU
Chattanooga
@ VMI
@ USC

Furman has a bit more difficult time but lucky for them they are peaking at the right time with the injury situation behind them. We peaked early and are in the middle of the injury bug. Samford has probably the toughest closing stretch of the three.

No matter how we slice it, the next 4-5 weeks are going to be REALLY interesting!

FIFY (...and alphabetized ALL current contenders)

[FUBeAR]

I feel ya, FUBear, but you failed to mention the following...

Frank's been in the hospital the past 6 years, at times in seemingly critical condition. Now, Frank is doing much better, and he's out of the hospital and getting back up to full speed. Moreover, his recovery is moving faster than people even expected.

What's worth noting is that during the last two years of Frank's stay in the hospital, that little punk Mark came in and punched Frank in the gut twice.

Frank's looking forward to Mark's upcoming visit, for sure.

Tell your "friend" that if he has to choose, his heart should be with Frank.  .

That's an interesting way to look at it. Sort of the "WWCB-I-LD?" take on the situation. I'll pass it along.

[Catamount87]

FIFY (...and alphabetized ALL current contenders)

Mercer definitely has an uphill battle to get them into any type of contention for even 2nd place. Wofford has the easiest stretch by far. The battle for 2nd place is going to be a nasty, bare knuckles punch fest.

[Sir William]

That's an interesting way to look at it. Sort of the "WWCB-I-LD?" take on the situation. I'll pass it along.

Yep, exactly!

[PaladinFan]

Mercer definitely has an uphill battle to get them into any type of contention for even 2nd place. Wofford has the easiest stretch by far. The battle for 2nd place is going to be a nasty, bare knuckles punch fest.

If it is to be a punch fest, I'm glad that Kealand Dirks and Antonio Wilcox play for my team.

If they aren't the best punchers in the SoCon right now, they'll do till one comes.

[ETSUfan1]

Furman will beat Mercer by 14+.

[PaladinFan]

Furman will beat Mercer by 14+.

Let's hope you are right. That'd be nice. We owe them one (two, really).

[ETSUfan1]

Maybe Mercer just had a bad game when we played them, but Furman really impressed me.

[FurmanWins!!]

Furman will beat Mercer by 14+.

Hope so xnodx

[wcugrad95]

WCU might have some more pressure given the open window of talent. Tyrie Adams is a sophomore, but this is the last hurrah for Newsom, Robinson, and Hill. While they will return some talented players, they will lose a lot of their offensive potency to graduation. There may be some pressure to win while all of these guys are in uniform.


WCU wasn't picked anywhere close to the top of the conference, and we are coming off a 2-9 train wreck where we went straight into the toilet after blowing the ETSU game. There is the normal pressure that comes with being where we are right now in the season, but I don't think there is pressure like some of the preseason top 2 or 3 teams felt.

As for the, offense - no doubt the coming graduation of Newsome would be a huge loss to any program. He has proven he has the skills to play against P5 teams with some unbelievable runs and returns against the likes of several SEC teams. But, he has been hobbled or out a fair part of the last 3 games and in two of those our backups ran for over 100 yards (Holloway against UTC and Spencer against ETSU). On the receiving front, Robinson is the school's all-time leader in receptions. But we have a couple of good TEs who will be back (one is hurt right now), and we will have Connell Young (a true Soph that converted from RB who we expect huge things from who has also been playing dinged up). We also will have Jordan Mathis who has been getting valuable time playing in Young's absence. And most importantly, we will return 4 starters on the offensive line and a 5th who has been getting into most games.

Next year we will have big shoes to fill with the departure of Newsome, Robinson, and Hill, but I think Western fans will optimistically see winning seasons going forward (3 in the last 4 years) to be possible rather than the 2-9 season we suffered last year.

[Terrier19]

1. Wofford:
2. Western Carolina
3. Samford
4. Furman / 5. Mercer (these 2 are interchangeable at this point. This week will sort these 2 apart.)
6. Citadel
7. ETSU
8. Chatt
9. VMI

(#5 Wofford Hosting #16 Samford) Sammy coming off the BYE week will be rested and hungry...... and will have the entire SoCon's hopes/dreams to get back in the race on its shoulders. If Wofford wins this one, they will have beaten teams ranked 2,3,4,5 and 6 with the 3 remaining conference game against 7,8 and 9. The race will effectively be over, seeing regardless of how the other teams play out, Wofford can still drop one of those 3 games (Unlikely) but would still get the AutoBid and have their piece of the crown regardless. Styles make fights and this will be a tale of 2 different styles. Sammy likes to wing it around, and has committed itself more to the run after failing at Western earlier in the season. And they will be passing against the SoCon's top Pass defense in Wofford, (ranked #6 Nationally). Wofford continues to get better and better defensively, and has done it against a good early schedule. I like Wofford to continue its winning ways in (you guessed it) a close one.....34-31 in a shootout of sorts.....

Mercer @ Furman......This is a battle of 2 very similar teams IMO.....Good teams with a lot of potential. Both played my Wofford boys to the wire, both have some good wins, but MErcer has the only questionable loss at ETSU. Furman's losses were to higher ranked opponents, so they haven't dropped the ball per se and are right in the tick of things in the SoCon. This game will tell alot about where both teams really are. Furman appears to be banged up as their first half against VMI was anything but spectacular. They came out extremely flat and looked oftentimes disinterested, now from what I am reading, injuries contributed a lot to those results. Furman came out in the 2nd half and handled business accordingly, but that left some doubt in folks minds. Is Furman as far along as their base feels, or is it more a product of scheduling. With games looming against (Mercer, @ WCU, Citadel, and ending up @ Samford) I think they have the toughest remaining road of the contenders. We will find out exactly where they really are over these last 4 weeks. Mercer seems poised to strike this week. Winners of 3 straight in convincing fashion, but they will need a better road effort than when they went to ETSU. Will the team that battled Auburn to the brink show up, the team that had Wofford on the ropes, or will it drop the ball in its most important game of the season. I think Mercer comes to the game ready to make its move in the SoCOn, Bobby Lamb will want this game bad, and they have the tools to do it. I think Furman's youth and imjury issues show up in this one. I like Mercer 28-24 in this one.

#19 Western Carolina @ VMI----WCU wins this one comfortably. No offense to VMI, but this isn't their year, and Western is really good. They continue their hot streak whether they are banged up or not. Western's tests will be in the stretch following this game. Furman (homecoming),@ Citadel, then Mercer. That stretch will determine Western's fate.

Citadel @ Chattanooga.......Citadel is closer to being themselves than Chatt is. I think Chatt is demoralized as a program and unfortunately is going through the process of starting over. Of course the talent is there, but with injuries, a new staff and system it just hasnt meshed and the season hasn't allowed them to fiond any footing. I think this weekends will mirror that result. Citadel played a great first half against Wofford, controlling the lines of scrimmage and controlling the ball and clock, and used that to lead 14-7, and looked good doing it. That being said, one team adjusted the other did not, Citadel fully committed to stopping the Wofford rushing attack (Mission accomplished), but with that left their secondary to man up with the Wofford receivers and paid the price. Citadel, much like Wofford, likes to operate on schedule, and if they can this week, they will find enough success to win an ugly hard fought game against a wounded Chatt team. 21-14 Citadel Victory on Military Appreciation Day.

[BearDownMU]

If it is to be a punch fest, I'm glad that Kealand Dirks and Antonio Wilcox play for my team.

If they aren't the best punchers in the SoCon right now, they'll do till one comes.

I feel the same way about Lee Bennett and LeMarkus Bailey.

I guess Saturday Rock gets to meet Hard Place.

[FurmanWins!!]

1) Wofford
2) Western Carolina (hoping for a FU vs. WCU showdown in 2 weeks for their homecoming)
3) Furman (expecting a big crowd this weekend for homecoming vs. Mercer)
4) Samford (putting SU here for now, but hoping they beat Wofford)
5) Mercer
6) Citadel
7) ETSU
8) UTC
9) VMI

[gofurman]

This is spot on. I think what ultimately counts is the W's...

Just my .02

I agree to an extent but winning by a margin DOES matter depending on your goals. Last 6 national champs ? NDSU. NDSU. NDSU. NDSU. NDSU. JMU. All were DOMINANT.

Winning close leads to an to an eventual playoff loss. I get that option football keeps the score close. I do. Actually another good example of close-wins-lead-to-losses is the Citadel beating Wofford in regular season last year only to lose to Woff in playoffs. Because the teams were close. And thus was the end of Citadel. Because they weren't dominantly better

look. Ws matter. First and foremost. And Cit and Woff are doing great. But the national champs usually come from teams that put in some blowouts too

( as for my guys, long term my Furman guys look very very good and getting better but may well lose to both Citadel and Woff this year. I get that. Fine with it. I think everyone can see we are going to be very good in a year or so. 3 wins last year w 20+ Seniors. Maybe 6 wins this year maybe w youth everywhere?? Hope we keep these coaches !)

good ode luck to your teams this week

[wcugrad95]

In my rankings I dropped Samford but made the comment that you aren't supposed to when you didn't play. I did it because I try to look more at how the teams are playing, and I think Furman is playing that well. Flip that to the Coaches and STATS poll. WCU has been behind Samford in those even though we beat them head-to-head. In the Coaches poll Samford is 7 spots ahead of us coming off a bye and Western winning by 39 in a game we were favored in by 14.

[gofurman]

No doubt the game of the week. Furman fighting to stay in contention for a share of the SoCon crown if Wofford slips up, and pressing for a top-25 ranking. Mercer fighting for respect and to stay in the hunt for a possible playoff spot. Then throw in the Bobby Lamb factor, and you have even more to this game. I won't even mention FUBeAR and his affinity for this contest (or maybe he hates it because they are both "his" schools???). This should be a good one.

Furman guy here. I would say Samford v Woff game of the week

[wcugrad95]

Nah - I am ignoring that one. Maybe if I don't pay attention the golden horeshoe will fall out of the Terrier's butts :)

[Terrier19]

Just my .02

I agree to an extent but winning by a margin DOES matter depending on your goals. Last 6 national champs ? NDSU. NDSU. NDSU. NDSU. NDSU. JMU. All were DOMINANT.

Winning close leads to an to an eventual playoff loss. I get that option football keeps the score close. I do. Actually another good example of close-wins-lead-to-losses is the Citadel beating Wofford in regular season last year only to lose to Woff in playoffs. Because the teams were close. And thus was the end of Citadel. Because they weren't dominantly better

look. Ws matter. First and foremost. And Cit and Woff are doing great. But the national champs usually come from teams that put in some blowouts too

( as for my guys, long term my Furman guys look very very good and getting better but may well lose to both Citadel and Woff this year. I get that. Fine with it. I think everyone can see we are going to be very good in a year or so. 3 wins last year w 20+ Seniors. Maybe 6 wins this year maybe w youth everywhere?? Hope we keep these coaches !)

good ode luck to your teams this week

Well FWIW, Wofford lost to the team that played in the national title game last season, and we lost to them at their place in the Quarterfinals of the playoffs, in Double OT in 14 degree weather. In a game we HAD won, I do not think the Triple Option had anything to do with us losing, we had our chances and lost. And haven't lost since. I think it is a bit unfair to compare any team over the last few seasons to NDSU as if that's the measuring stick. I think NDSU shames any school over that time period regardless of style, offense, or historical narrative. WE may not have a national championship team, but we do have a playoff team, this we KNOW because we did it last season and brought most of that team back this season. In fact, the last time Wofford made the QuarterFinals of the national playoffs (2012), we lost to NDSU, and we lost 14-7 in a helluva game that we once again had our shots to win that game.

Close wins do not show weakness, they show strength, especially when you look at the fact they win most of these types of games (over the last 2 seasons). In fact Wofford has won 12 of its last 13 games, the 1 loss was in the Quarterfinals in Double OT, many of those games are of the close variety. No one has to view Wofford as a juggernaut, but you should respect what they have achieved and how they go about doing things. I am glad that the Furman faithul are so ecstatic with their new staff and subsequent results. I like that rivalry being good.

- - - Updated - - -


Nah - I am ignoring that one. Maybe if I don't pay attention the golden horeshoe will fall out of the Terrier's butts :)

xlolx

[wcugrad95]

I'm not saying Wofford isn't good. Good luck generally finds people who put themselves in the right position, and Wofford does that in spades. Excellent coaching, good players, a scheme that tends to lead to relatively close games. But, as someone who loves the numbers and statistics, I would also expect you to acknowledge that the world usually tends to average out eventually.

[Terrier19]

I'm not saying Wofford isn't good. Good luck generally finds people who put themselves in the right position, and Wofford does that in spades. Excellent coaching, good players, a scheme that tends to lead to relatively close games. But, as someone who loves the numbers and statistics, I would also expect you to acknowledge that the world usually tends to average out eventually.

I think I get what you are saying. But explain that a little more in depth for me please. "that the world usually tends to average out eventually.'

[Terrier19]

I'm not saying Wofford isn't good. Good luck generally finds people who put themselves in the right position, and Wofford does that in spades. Excellent coaching, good players, a scheme that tends to lead to relatively close games. But, as someone who loves the numbers and statistics, I would also expect you to acknowledge that the world usually tends to average out eventually.

In regards to close games, I get it if you are saying that Wofford has been fortunate. And THEY HAVE. But in each and every close game they have had this season, and even last season, they MADE THEIR OWN fortune. A diving interception, a strip fumble, a 2 point conversion defense, another interception, a 13 play 7 minute drive to end the game.....all things that Wofford did in these moments. Which of these games would you call lucky for Wofford??

[ElCid]

Citadel @ Chattanooga.......Citadel is closer to being themselves than Chatt is. I think Chatt is demoralized as a program and unfortunately is going through the process of starting over. Of course the talent is there, but with injuries, a new staff and system it just hasnt meshed and the season hasn't allowed them to fiond any footing. I think this weekends will mirror that result. Citadel played a great first half against Wofford, controlling the lines of scrimmage and controlling the ball and clock, and used that to lead 14-7, and looked good doing it. That being said, one team adjusted the other did not, Citadel fully committed to stopping the Wofford rushing attack (Mission accomplished), but with that left their secondary to man up with the Wofford receivers and paid the price. Citadel, much like Wofford, likes to operate on schedule, and if they can this week, they will find enough success to win an ugly hard fought game against a wounded Chatt team. 21-14 Citadel Victory on Military Appreciation Day.

This was spot on about our game with Wofford. They adjusted very well. Chalk that up to a very good coach. How old is Ayers? I have no illusions about our prospects this year. I like how our program is doing, but we had too many shortcomings to repeat this year. We can still finish ok, but I like our prospects in the coming years. I can see us at 5-6 or 6-5. Lots of talent, but not a huge amount of experience right now at key spots.

[wcugrad95]

I would certainly question one of those interceptions (I could even provide visual proof) ��

Again, Wofford has not only put themselves in place to win - they have made the play required to pull all these games out. That is both commendable and more than a trend. I just think it's hard to expect that every single week. I'd have a heart attack as a fan, but it helps you recover when you win.

[Terrier19]

This was spot on about our game with Wofford. They adjusted very well. Chalk that up to a very good coach. How old is Ayers? I have no illusions about our prospects this year. I like how our program is doing, but we had too many shortcomings to repeat this year. We can still finish ok, but I like our prospects in the coming years. I can see us at 5-6 or 6-5. Lots of talent, but not a huge amount of experience right now at key spots.

You guys were thumping us in that first half. No 2 ways about it. Fast and flying around the ball.

[ElCid]

You guys were thumping us in that first half. No 2 ways about it. Fast and flying around the ball.

The boys were hungry no doubt about it. I was very pleased with their performance. But like you said, you adjusted very well and in an unexpected fashion. We should have adjusted as well and finished. Oh well.

[Reign of Terrier]

Re-examining my picks, I'll say this briefly

Mercer and Furman will be a close game with both teams scoring in the 21-35 point range. The winner will be the team that leaves the least amount of points on the field and that's why I picked Furman.

VMI and Western Carolina will NOT be close

Citadel and Chattanooga is a trap game, here's why. Chattanooga's defense isn't terrible and the Citadel's offense only averages about two scores against comparable competition (they did well against PC, Newberry and ETSU but not against Wofford, Mercer and Samford). It's possible and perhaps likely that the Citadel will have one of their best offensive games of their, but if they're on par with their Socon average, Chattanooga will be in a position to tie/win late. Remember, Citadel is only averaging about 18 ppg against Socon competition, which means why could enter the fourth quarter with 10 points. If that's the case, Chattanooga will definitely still be in it and the momentum could be on their side. The only way Citadel wins this one is if they break the Moc's will early.

Wofford @ Samford. It's hard for me to get a read on Samford. They're statistically the second to last defense in the Socon, but they've played some great offenses, so that stat may be skewed. Their offense isn't as efficient as last year, but they still have the capability to score 30 on us. If Wofford has an average night overall and Samford has an average night offensively and only slightly above average night defensively, we'll lose. On one hand, Samford is due for a good defense to knock down their stats a little bit, on another Wofford's luck can't last forever.

If Wofford is a top 10 team and Samford is as good as advertised, this game will be decided by 1 score either which way. If Wofford is who we say we are, we win and if Samford isn't as good as advertised we win by 2 scores. Right now I'm inclined to think that won't happen. We shouldn't be favored in this one.

[Terrier19]

The boys were hungry no doubt about it. I was very pleased with their performance. But like you said, you adjusted very well and in an unexpected fashion. We should have adjusted as well and finished. Oh well.

On to the NExt one brother......

[BearDownMU]

Wofford @ Samford. It's hard for me to get a read on Samford. They're statistically the second to last defense in the Socon, but they've played some great offenses, so that stat may be skewed. Their offense isn't as efficient as last year, but they still have the capability to score 30 on us. If Wofford has an average night overall and Samford has an average night offensively and only slightly above average night defensively, we'll lose. On one hand, Samford is due for a good defense to knock down their stats a little bit, on another Wofford's luck can't last forever.

Wait a sec, by what measure? Didn't you give me 9 posts about taking out non-conference games? They're the 2nd best scoring defense in the conference in conference only games. And 7th (not 8th) in yards allowed per game in conference only games. But scoring defense is really what matters, no?

[Terrier19]

Wait a sec, by what measure? Didn't you give me 9 posts about taking out non-conference games? They're the 2nd best scoring defense in the conference in conference only games. And 7th (not 8th) in yards allowed per game in conference only games. But scoring defense is really what matters, no?

Pulling up the NCAA Stats.

Wofford Total Defense Ranked 18th NAtionally
Samford Total Defense Ranked 100th

Scoring Defense
Wofford #31 (allowing 20 Points Per Game)
Samford #66 (allowing 27.5 Points Per Game)

[BearDownMU]

Pulling up the NCAA Stats.

Wofford Total Defense Ranked 18th NAtionally
Samford Total Defense Ranked 100th

Scoring Defense
Wofford #31 (allowing 20 Points Per Game)
Samford #66 (allowing 27.5 Points Per Game)

SoCon games only Samford is allowing 19.7 ppg. Wofford allowing 23.5 ppg

[Terrier19]

SoCon games only Samford is allowing 19.7 ppg. Wofford allowing 23.5 ppg

SoCon only....ahhh I see.. well there is a point. against SoCon competition albeit not the same competition. Seeing MErcer and Furman 2 of the better offenses in the conference Wofford has played while Samford hasnt. And hasnt played Wofford.......Fair enough......If that fuels your feeling of a Samford win, I can dig it.

I don't think that will matter with Wofford at home on homecoming, with a shot to Lock the LEague up in essence......but hey, "ANY GIVEN SATURDAY"....

[Terrier19]

SoCon games only Samford is allowing 19.7 ppg. Wofford allowing 23.5 ppg

Add in that they share a common opponent....Western....

Western beat Samford
Wofford beat Western

just another caveat....

[Reign of Terrier]

Wait a sec, by what measure? Didn't you give me 9 posts about taking out non-conference games? They're the 2nd best scoring defense in the conference in conference only games. And 7th (not 8th) in yards allowed per game in conference only games. But scoring defense is really what matters, no?

They are 8th in total defense http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2017/confldrs.htm

They're hard to measure because they've played one less game than everyone else in conference play and their efficiency in their OOC brings their efficiency on both sides of the ball down. In my stats, I have "Socon only" and "total" stats (I can provide them to anyone via google doc if you PM me), and by either metric they're an anomaly. I don't include UGA in the stats because I don't think it's fair reasons I've gone over ad nauseum, but including Kennesaw and West Georgia doesn't make much of a dent in the stats (makes both sides of the ball look 5% better), which is weird because they're both in theory supposed to help Samford pad the stats more than that (at least West Georgia)

Meanwhile, if you look how they played just in Socon:
>VMI is terrible on both sides of the ball and throws averages off (which isn't a big deal for most teams sans Samford and UTC because most teams have enough games to offset that),

>Western has a good offense (which had a respectable 6 scores on 14 possessions against the Samford defense) and decent defense in every measure but yardage (7th in total defense, but top 3 in terms of scoring defense % in both Socon and overall measures)

>and Samford defensively held a Citadel team to about its average in the Socon on offensive efficiency, but you could argue that the Citadel forwent field goals as it needed points, which would skew its scoring efficiency; on the flip side they also scored 35 points, but they couldn't find more points later in the game, which was odd, even if you're trying to run clock.

My point in all of this is that scoring defense matters, but it doesn't tell the whole story of how good a team is. For example, Wofford's given up 26 points this year (20% of our points!) on giving the other team a scoop and score, punt return, or a turnover inside our own 25. I'm sure every team has stories like that, and that's why I look at efficiency per possession, not points per se.

[wcugrad95]

SoCon games only Samford is allowing 19.7 ppg. Wofford allowing 23.5 ppg

And if we get to throw out the OOC games, here are all the team's average PPG in league games to date:
Mercer - 18.4
Samford - 19.7
WCU - 21.5
Furman - 21.5
Wofford - 23.5
Citadel - 26
UTC - 30.8
ETSU - 39.8
VMI - 45

To me, yards given up isn't nearly as important as the above. I don't care if we give up 600 yards, the most important thing is we score more points than the opposition.

[Reign of Terrier]

SoCon games only Samford is allowing 19.7 ppg. Wofford allowing 23.5 ppg

That is true, but when it comes to common opponents, Wofford has defensively edged Samford in terms of points and yardage (Western and Citadel). I don't think it's helpful to include VMI just because of how bad VMI is (nevertheless they still count). Not to mention, if you look at the average ppg of Wofford's opponents (33 ppg), we've held them to 10 ppg less than their to average. Meanwhile, Samford is right on those numbers.

But again, I have to reiterate, this doesn't mean Wofford is clearly, better, will win, etc. It means that we have an incomplete sample of Samford. So I'm using their absolute stats, sans Georgia (which I already admit makes them look better ever so slightly) and long story short, I think Samford should be favored given the incomplete information we have on them (I have a formula on a spreadsheet on google sheets, I'll share if anyone is curious)

[BearDownMU]

SoCon only....ahhh I see.. well there is a point. against SoCon competition albeit not the same competition. Seeing MErcer and Furman 2 of the better offenses in the conference Wofford has played while Samford hasnt. And hasnt played Wofford.......Fair enough......If that fuels your feeling of a Samford win, I can dig it.

I don't think that will matter with Wofford at home on homecoming, with a shot to Lock the LEague up in essence......but hey, "ANY GIVEN SATURDAY"....

I'm not saying AT ALL that I think Samford is going to win. I'm mostly just busting YT's statistical analysis balls. lol.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm not saying AT ALL that I think Samford is going to win. I'm mostly just busting YT's statistical analysis balls. lol.

I figured but I'm like galactic brain meme at this point

[BearDownMU]

Lines are already out. Here they be:

Mercer @ Furman (-3.5), O/U 61.5
Samford @ Wofford (-2.5), O/U 54
WCU (-27.5) @ VMI, O/U 59.5
The Citadel (-3.5) @ Chatt, O/U 47.5

[Reign of Terrier]

Lines are already out. Here they be:

Mercer @ Furman (-3.5), O/U 61.5
Samford @ Wofford (-2.5), O/U 54
WCU (-27.5) @ VMI, O/U 59.5
The Citadel (-3.5) @ Chatt, O/U 47.5

these are good lines. I would have Samford favored though

[SU DOG]

West Alabama and NOT West Georgia. That game was 35-7 at the half. BTW, that undefeated otherwise West Alabama D-2 team would beat most Big South Teams(IMO, other opinions accepted). Anyhow, I have a suspicion that the Samford defense is going to be the X-factor in the game Saturday - I sure hope so. They are far better than most think having improved thru the season. We could lay an egg, and Wofford is a beast, but I pick my Dogs. In the last five years, Wofford has won ONE game against Samford. What does this mean for Saturday? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!! If Wofford Fans can make themselves feel better by quoting abstract manipulated stats, however, I can do the same by pointing to definite historical facts. LOL!!!
Hatcher on practice and the defenses:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHV7eBUTNyg

[Reign of Terrier]

I hear the stat of how many times Samford has beaten us in the last 5 years thrown around, but it's never talked about how good those Wofford teams were.

Anyone want to take a guess how many times Samford has beaten a Wofford team with a winning record? Twice. How about a guess as to how many times they've done it against a Wofford team with a winning record in Spartanburg? Zero.

The series is Samford 5 Wofford 4 in 9 years. If you want to claim dominance over a team that went 11-11 in the Socon over the course of three years, go ahead; last year was only the second time Samford beat a Wofford team that finished above .500 in Socon play

[SU DOG]

Is Samford somehow responsible for Wofford's success or lack of? Last year was certainly a very good Wofford Team. Look, I've claimed nothing of dominance. My point was this means nothing(as I stated), just like a bunch of stats is not gonna really tell us anything either. Hope it's a great game with no injuries. All respect in the world for the Wofford Program and your great coach, but not so much for a bunch of meaningless comparison stats.

[Mocs123]

We have played the run really well all year on defense Except Furman where they dominated us physically. I fear The Citadel May do the same.

[ElCid]

We have played the run really well all year on defense Except Furman where they dominated us physically. I fear The Citadel May do the same.

If we play, the whole game, like we did in the first half against Wofford, your are toast. If not, or we cough it up 5 times, then who knows. Inconsistency is the name of our game this year.

[FurmanWins!!]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMRmAXXUEAYJnR5.jpg:large

[PaladinFan]

Interesting quote in the Greenville News article after VMI game: http://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/sports/college/furman/2017/10/14/furman-paladins-rushing-attack-wears-down-vmi-keydets/762890001/


“Kealand might have come as far as anybody on our football team,” said Furman head coach Clay Hendrix. “He’s always had really good running skills. He’s just buying in to everything. Practice. Blocking. Toughness.”

Furman's renewed punishing run game and the play of Kealand Dirks may be one of the best stories of the 2017 SoCon season. Dirks was effectively relegated to a short-yardage battering ram under Bruce Fowler. There has always been some level of disconnect as to why he was never more involved in the offense. When he would play, he would excel, as evidenced by his 171 yard effort last season against Western Carolina. Whatever that disconnect was, it seems to not be an issue this season.

Dirks already has back to back 100 yard games against ETSU and UTC. At 6'0 244, he's a big physical back reminiscent of Jerome Felton. Like Felton, he does not go backwards. On 76 attempts this season, he has lost only one yard.

[Catamount87]

...There has always been some level of disconnect as to why he was never more involved in the offense. ...


Right there, IMHO that sums up Fowler at Furman. It always seemed like he was trying to force players into his system rather than recruiting the appropriate talent for his system. Dirks and Blazejowski seems to be the poster kids for this.

[Reign of Terrier]

What I'm interested in seeing is whether or not Furman can win a close one. It's a criticism of FCS coaches when they can't win the close games (there are a few that come to mind). Hendrix gets a mulligan given the full context, but Lamb obviously needs this one worse than Hendrix.

I don't mean to take away from Furman's accomplishments this season, but with the limited sample we have, they've bulldozed bad teams and lost the close games. This game is more likely to be a close loss than a blowout. It'll be a good game to watch

[SCPALADIN]

What I'm interested in seeing is whether or not Furman can win a close one. It's a criticism of FCS coaches when they can't win the close games (there are a few that come to mind). Hendrix gets a mulligan given the full context, but Lamb obviously needs this one worse than Hendrix.

I don't mean to take away from Furman's accomplishments this season, but with the limited sample we have, they've bulldozed bad teams and lost the close games. This game is more likely to be a close loss than a blowout. It'll be a good game to watch

I'd prefer to keep scoring 40+ and winning by 21+ each week. We'll leave the close ones to you guys...

[PaladinFan]

What I'm interested in seeing is whether or not Furman can win a close one. It's a criticism of FCS coaches when they can't win the close games (there are a few that come to mind). Hendrix gets a mulligan given the full context, but Lamb obviously needs this one worse than Hendrix.

I don't mean to take away from Furman's accomplishments this season, but with the limited sample we have, they've bulldozed bad teams and lost the close games. This game is more likely to be a close loss than a blowout. It'll be a good game to watch

You kinda sorta do intend to take away what Furman is accomplishing. I don't think it's a fair critique when they are beating the teams in front of them. They don't have control over the schedule.

Remember this is a team coming off a 3 win season, following a 4 win season, following a 3 win season. They have 49 freshmen. The fact we are even having this conversation is astounding.

[PaladinFan]

Right there, IMHO that sums up Fowler at Furman. It always seemed like he was trying to force players into his system rather than recruiting the appropriate talent for his system. Dirks and Blazejowski seems to be the poster kids for this.

I agree. If you want to run a spread zone-read type of offense, Dirks is a poor fit. He's a north south battering ram.

To be fair, I do think the coaching staff saw the writing on the wall last year and tried to make some fundamental changes to the offense and pegged Blazejowski as the starter. They moved to more of a pistol look, which had some limited success before Blazejowski went down with an injury. After that, they just let Hannon sling it.

The maturation of Blazejowski in this new system, though, has been pretty impressive. You watch the games and can really appreciate how many intelligent decisions he makes with the football. In years past, he would force throws and create a bunch of turnovers. This year, he's been picked twice (one of those, I think, was a batted pass at NC State) and has really opened up Furman's passing game by looking defensive backs off the play.

[Reign of Terrier]

You kinda sorta do intend to take away what Furman is accomplishing. I don't think it's a fair critique when they are beating the teams in front of them. They don't have control over the schedule.

Remember this is a team coming off a 3 win season, following a 4 win season, following a 3 win season. They have 49 freshmen. The fact we are even having this conversation is astounding.

Well, to be clear, I didn't say they would lose the close one, just that it would be interesting to watch. Beating VMI, ETSU and Chattanooga isn't much of an accomplishment this year. We don't have enough information to rule one way or another how Furman plays against tough competition other than Elon and Wofford. It's only two games and they were both in the margin of error.

I'd argue Bobby Lamb needs to win this game more than Hendrix, but I think the Dins will invalidate my talking pointxnodx

[PaladinFan]

Well, to be clear, I didn't say they would lose the close one, just that it would be interesting to watch. Beating VMI, ETSU and Chattanooga isn't much of an accomplishment this year. We don't have enough information to rule one way or another how Furman plays against tough competition other than Elon and Wofford. It's only two games and they were both in the margin of error.

I'd argue Bobby Lamb needs to win this game more than Hendrix, but I think the Dins will invalidate my talking pointxnodx

Furman has played 7 games. 3 of them were against Wofford, Elon and NC State. So, nearly half the schedule has been against "tough competition." We do have a pretty good idea of how they play against tough competition.

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman has played 7 games. 3 of them were against Wofford, Elon and NC State. So, nearly half the schedule has been against "tough competition." We do have a pretty good idea of how they play against tough competition.

But they haven't beaten them yet. No one is denying that Furman has the capability, but it's a point worth mentioning as something to watch this week. This is a different test from Wofford or Elon, because we knew nothing about Furman under Hendrix when they played Wofford and no one expected Elon to be a great team this year (at least as good as they are). This is the first game we have a reasonable forecast of what Furman will do and how well they will execute, as well as their opponent. It's got a different feeling and the outcome could go either way, and that's worth pointing out.

I reiterate again that I think Furman will win, but if they don't, we have to put more weight on their youth and injuries than many are right now. Youth and injuries lead to inconsistent outcomes. Just look at the Citadel right now.

[FUBeAR]

Beating VMI, ETSU and Chattanooga isn't much of an accomplishment this year.


SAT 10/28/2017 - 1PM - EAST TENNESSEE STATE (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
JOHNSON CITY, TN
TV: ESPN3
RADIO: WOFFORD/IMG DIGITAL NETWORK


SAT 11/4/2017 - 1:30PM - CHATTANOOGA (http://www.gomocs.com/)
SPARTANBURG, S.C.
GIBBS STADIUM
TV: ESPN3
RADIO: WOFFORD/IMG DIGITAL NETWORK


SAT 11/11/2017 - 1:30PM - VIRGINIA MILITARY INSTITUTE (http://www.vmikeydets.com/)
LEXINGTON, VA
RADIO: WOFFORD/IMG DIGITAL NETWORK


See....this is the kind of thing you want to post (if you can) about 5:00 PM on November 11th; not on October 17th.

[PaladinFan]

I'm not even sure why Wofford is bothering to play those last three, seeing as it's a given and all.

[Reign of Terrier]

SAT 10/28/2017 - 1PM - EAST TENNESSEE STATE (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
JOHNSON CITY, TN
TV: ESPN3
RADIO: WOFFORD/IMG DIGITAL NETWORK


SAT 11/4/2017 - 1:30PM - CHATTANOOGA (http://www.gomocs.com/)
SPARTANBURG, S.C.
GIBBS STADIUM
TV: ESPN3
RADIO: WOFFORD/IMG DIGITAL NETWORK


SAT 11/11/2017 - 1:30PM - VIRGINIA MILITARY INSTITUTE (http://www.vmikeydets.com/)
LEXINGTON, VA
RADIO: WOFFORD/IMG DIGITAL NETWORK


See....this is the kind of thing you want to post (if you can) about 5:00 PM on November 11th; not on October 17th.

I'm confident enough, given the lack of run game for Chattanooga, the fact that VMI has scored 8 points a game, and the paper mache defense of ETSU. If we lose, I'll eat my crow, but quite frankly I have no reason to think we should.

[PaladinNation]

But they haven't beaten them yet. No one is denying that Furman has the capability, but it's a point worth mentioning as something to watch this week. This is a different test from Wofford or Elon, because we knew nothing about Furman under Hendrix when they played Wofford and no one expected Elon to be a great team this year (at least as good as they are). This is the first game we have a reasonable forecast of what Furman will do and how well they will execute, as well as their opponent. It's got a different feeling and the outcome could go either way, and that's worth pointing out.

I reiterate again that I think Furman will win, but if they don't, we have to put more weight on their youth and injuries than many are right now. Youth and injuries lead to inconsistent outcomes. Just look at the Citadel right now.

I understand the Wofford argument that they knew nothing about Furman under Hendrix, it's partially correct. Obviously, Ayers and staff studied Air Force and Reinhardt and maybe even Maryville to gain some insights. Ayers kinda backed this up in comments related to the 2pt attempt at the end of the game.

Offensively Furman was a work in progress in both Wofford and Elon games. Miscues seem to have been corrected, and the level of consistency of the offense has greatly improved.

Now Furman has figured out a bit more who they are on offense, they are becoming far more physical and spread the ball around at a level I don't thnk I've ever seen from Furman. The rise of the big backs - especially Dirks, gives the Dins a weapon to use in a close game when they're playing with the lead.

BTW… I would put all my chips on Dirks this weekend, Dirks has the chance to bury the spike ball demon that cost Furman a win two years ago.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the Samford game is a toss up, but I think at this point in the year, Wofford fans have earned the right to be confident against teams with a total of 3 wins against D1 teams and only one win against one with a winning record. The law of averages applies, as it does with every game (and if I were to pick one, ETSU will probably be the most challenging), but I don't think anyone is saying Western fans who predict a win this weekend are over-confident, so I think there's something else going on here if you think I'm being overconfident.

[FUBeAR]

they are becoming far more physical and spread the ball around at a level I don't thnk I've ever seen from Furman. The rise of the big backs - especially Dirks, gives the Dins a weapon to use in a close game when they're playing with the lead.

I don't recall when you started watching FU Football...but if I throw the names Mark Stowers, Mike Glenn, Brothel Cole, Stanford Jennings, Steve Bishop, Dinky Williams, John Drye, Steve Bennett at you...and you think about it (or read some old Media Guides), I think you might be a bit off in that assessment. Those are just the RB's - FB's and TB's. I didn't include the WR's and TE's...and the QB's (most of them) who uses to be part of a wide-spread ball distribution (and very physical) Offense that was a hallmark of Furman Football.

As an example, I recall playing in 1 game, a Victory (of course) over our good friends, the Bellhops, down in Chucktown...'79, I think...and 3 of those RB's had over 100 yards EACH, if I'm not mistaken.

I promise what FU is doing on Offense is NOT new...but it IS....VERY, VERY GOOD!

[FUBeAR]

I think there's something else going on here if you think I'm being overconfident.

Didn't say "overconfident."

I would use other terms, if I weren't such a nice FUBeAR. Thus, I'll let the beholders choose their own right words to describe what you ARE being by posting what you did.

[PaladinFan]

I don't recall when you started watching FU Football...but if I throw the names Mark Stowers, Mike Glenn, Brothel Cole, Stanford Jennings, Steve Bishop, Dinky Williams, John Drye, Steve Bennett at you...and you think about it (or read some old Media Guides), I think you might be a bit off in that assessment. Those are just the RB's - FB's and TB's. I didn't include the WR's and TE's...and the QB's (most of them) who uses to be part of a wide-spread ball distribution (and very physical) Offense that was a hallmark of Furman Football.

As an example, I recall playing in 1 game, a Victory (of course) over our good friends, the Bellhops, down in Chucktown...'79, I think...and 3 of those RB's had over 100 yards EACH, if I'm not mistaken.

I promise what FU is doing on Offense is NOT new...but it IS....VERY, VERY GOOD!

Furman isn't doing anything exotic offensively. They are just executing and playing a physical brand of football. That used to be a standard operating procedure.

[ElCid]

As an example, I recall playing in 1 game, a Victory (of course) over our good friends, the Bellhops, down in Chucktown...'79, I think...and 3 of those RB's had over 100 yards EACH, if I'm not mistaken.


1980 actually. And to be accurate it wasn't over 100, it was 137, 101, and 100. So it is more accurate to say three 100 yard rushers.😀 get it right next time. That is amazing though to have three rushers for 100 yards. We actually had a game with 4 100 yard rushers recently. Crazy.

[FUBeAR]

1980 actually. And to be accurate it wasn't over 100, it was 137, 101, and 100. So it is more accurate to say three 100 yard rushers. get it right next time. That is amazing though to have three rushers for 100 yards. We actually had a game with 4 100 yard rushers recently. Crazy.

'80, huh...so it was in G'Vegas; not ChuckTown? That was my 1st game back starting at Center after disintergrating my ACL @ WCU just a few weeks earlier (we were tougher back then :-) ) My avatar is actually from that game. Woulda thought I would have remembered it better. Oh well...those leather helmets were NOT tougher.

BTW - Check out the SEASON-Long Distribution of the 3 TB's and the primary FB on that team...

Rushing & Receiving



Rushing
Receiving
Scrimmage


Rk
Player
Att
Yds
Avg
TD
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Plays
Yds
Avg
TD


1
Mike Glenn (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mike-glenn-1.html)
158
855
5.4
11
1
0
0.0
0
159
855
5.4
11


2
Steve Bishop (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/steve-bishop-1.html)
129
719
5.6
1
1
7
7.0
0
130
726
5.6
1


3
Brothel Cole (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brothel-cole-1.html)
96
626
6.5
6
2
10
5.0
0
98
636
6.5
6


5
Stanford Jennings (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/stanford-jennings-1.html)
63
433
6.9
4
13
193
14.8
1
76
626
8.2



Total
446
2,633
5.9
22
17
210
12.4
1
463
2,843
6.1



6.1 yards every time (on average) each time 1 of those 4 dudes touched the football. You can win games and championships with that number!

...and that Jenkins fella, with the 8.2 yards/touch...he was only a Freshman. I think he musta turned out pretty good... http://www.bengals.com/first50.html

* For those, keeping score at home, the final 2 cells in the right column should show "5" and "23" & the highlighting of the "Brothel Cole" row is unintentional - poster errors of some sort...leather helmets...again.

[wcugrad95]

And if we get to throw out the OOC games, here are all the team's average PPG in league games to date:
Mercer - 18.4
Samford - 19.7
WCU - 21.5
Furman - 21.5
Wofford - 23.5
Citadel - 26
UTC - 30.8
ETSU - 39.8
VMI - 45

To me, yards given up isn't nearly as important as the above. I don't care if we give up 600 yards, the most important thing is we score more points than the opposition.

I did the math the other way, too. Here are where teams stand in terms of average winning margin in SoCon games only to date:
Furman +19 (76 more points than their opposition)
WCU +18.5 (74)
Mercer +12.2 (61 but have played 5 conference games)
Samford +12 (36 but only 3 conference games)
Wofford +3.25 (13)
UTC -6.5 (-26 helped by a 56-point win over VMI)
Citadel -7.25 (-29)
ETSU -15.75 (-63)
VMI -35.5 (-142)

I know it doesn't tell us the whole story until everybody has played everybody, just throwing them out there. That was all manual by grabbing scores for each individual team, so apologies if there is a mistake or my math was off any (I did double-check). All these really do (points allowed and average winning margin) is show that there is a distinction between the top 5 and the bottom 4 through the first half of the conference games. And YT (and all the Wofford fans), I know the most important stat is Ws :). These are for informational purposes only.

[OL FU]

Can we change this board to ANS - Any Nerdy Saturdayxeyebrowx;):)

[SU DOG]

Can we change this board to ANS - Any Nerdy Saturdayxeyebrowx;):)

LOL +1

[Reign of Terrier]

I'll share the math I've done on this (because honestly, I'm kind of proud and I'll share my spreadsheet with you if you want). I think when prognosticating, it's easy to look at absolute margins or use transitive thinking which isn't always helpful. Instead, I look at the average points a team can expect to score (given prior performances) and give up.

I calculate this number according to this method:
I average the amount of scoring possessions a team averages per game (it's as long as 1.6 for VMI and as high as 5.8 for Furman) and I multiply that number x 1/2. Call this number "the offensive magic number." I do the same with the amount on defense, cal it the "defensive magic number). The principle behind it is that everyone mathematically has an average performance, but (logically) 1/2 of the outcome is based on the quality of the other team. The magic number, using Furman's says, Furman will average a score of at least 2.9 times (2-3 times, may be touchdowns, may be field goals), no matter who they play.

But we aren't done yet, because the defense will allow a certain amount of points no matter how they play either. So I average the defensive magic numbers of the Socon teams and that number is about 2.1. Adding them together, that's about 5 scores for Furman, so if Furman has an "average" game and the defense they play has an average performance, they can expect to score (on average) 5 times. That could be 5 field goals, 5 touchdowns or anywhere in between. And again, it's an average, it's not a precise number, just a baseline.

Next, I create 3 scenarios and an average: the average best case scenario for Team A, the average best case scenarios for Team B, the "hybrid" of the two, and an average of all three. To make the hybrid, I just add the numbers of the teams accordingly to create a hypothetical score. So for the Furman Mercer game, the hybrid is Mercer's D magic number + Furman's O magic number=Furman Score and Furman's D magic number +Mercer's O magic number=Mercer's score. For the best case scenarios, the variables are replaced with the best possible number (their own average or the Socon average).

From there, I get the average; It gives the impression, not of the final score, but the amount of times you can expect a team to drive down the field and at least get a field goal (or be in position to do so). Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty, but in a Bayesian sense it can give you the impression of who should be favored, if only slightly. Below is the table of the magic numbers (for both socon and overall schedule..omitting UGA for Samford and Limestone for ETSU) and what I get for the Furman-Mercer game.



Baseline #
offense
defense
socon offense
socon defense


Chattanooga
1.583333333
1.916666667
1.875
2


Citadel
1.916666667
1.583333333
1.375
2


ETSU
1.75
2.5
2
2.75


Furman
2.916666667
1.833333333
2.875
1.75


Samford
2.083333333
1.666666667
2.666666667
1.5


VMI
0.8333333333
2.916666667
0.75
3.375


Western Carolina
2.916666667
1.833333333
2.5
1.75


Wofford
2.25
1.583333333
2.125
1.875


Mercer
2.357142857
1.428571429
2.4
1.5


Chatt No VMI
1
2.2
1
2.5




Socon average
1.965740741
2.111111111


Week 8
hybrid
Mercer best case
Furman best case
average


Mercer
4.15
4.511111111
3.715740741
4.125617284


Furman
4.375
3.465740741
4.986111111
4.275617284



Using this methdology, I have Samford favored against wofford, citadel favored against Chattanooga, but only by a score, and Western favored against VMI big-time (the math was hard on this one because it was the end of the day for me and VMI is so bad they can only hope to play to the average.

But that's my two cents worth. In the next week or so I may use this method to predict a baseline final records/the last few games of the season. In my excel sheet it's constantly updating (how Bayesian), so a prediction now may be overturned next week pending on an outcome. If anyone wants to see it, let me know, or if you have good criticisms on how to improve it, shoot me a PM. I talk about math and **** not as **** measuring thing, but for insight, so if I'm wrong I'll admit it.

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/920263036669186048

[PaladinNation]

I don't recall when you started watching FU Football...but if I throw the names Mark Stowers, Mike Glenn, Brothel Cole, Stanford Jennings, Steve Bishop, Dinky Williams, John Drye, Steve Bennett at you...and you think about it (or read some old Media Guides), I think you might be a bit off in that assessment. Those are just the RB's - FB's and TB's. I didn't include the WR's and TE's...and the QB's (most of them) who uses to be part of a wide-spread ball distribution (and very physical) Offense that was a hallmark of Furman Football.

As an example, I recall playing in 1 game, a Victory (of course) over our good friends, the Bellhops, down in Chucktown...'79, I think...and 3 of those RB's had over 100 yards EACH, if I'm not mistaken.

I promise what FU is doing on Offense is NOT new...but it IS....VERY, VERY GOOD!

I should have said in recent memory… my days watching games at Sirrine were sadly, for the most part, spent sliding down the hill on cardboard. That said my memories really start with Whitehurst, Jennings, Lamb, Fox and Robbie Gardner.

I agree with all you said - It's just been a long time since we played team ball they way we are this season.

[FUGameBreaker]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/920263036669186048


will be another early tailgate xcoffeex

[FUBeAR]

I should have said in recent memory… my days watching games at Sirrine were sadly, for the most part, spent sliding down the hill on cardboard. That said my memories really start with Whitehurst, Jennings, Lamb, Fox and Robbie Gardner.

I agree with all you said - It's just been a long time since we played team ball they way we are this season.

If you remember Whitehurst (I'm assuming you meant David, not Mark, his younger brother), then you would remember all of the names I mentioned. They all played 1977 thru 1984...or so.

Whitehurst's last year as a Paladin was 1976. All of his home games were in Sirrine. That 3 RB's at or over (there, El Cid!) 100 yards in 1980 was the last game in Sirrine.

[FUBeAR]

if you have good criticisms on how to improve it

Present your data with the number of decimal places displayed as fixed; not floating...if you want anyone to read it. The number of places may vary for clarity as needed, but should be standardized when reading by column (in this case; could need to be by row; depending upon how you have designed your array).

Please describe the extent and results of the validation testing you have done on your predictive model.

[woffordgrad94]

Okay, here are my two cents:

The Samford game should be an excellent game. Either Wofford or Samford could win this one. But regardless of the outcome of that game, I think Wofford fans have a right to expect wins over Chatty, ETSU and VMI simply based on their records. This doesn’t mean that Wofford will definitely and 100% win all these games. Hell, the world may end and these games might not even be played! An asteroid might crash into the planet, that Yellowstone volcano might erupt, or North Korea might irradiate us all with nukes...but I disgress. Assuming none of that happens and the games are played, I think that any reasonable person would say that there is a sizably greater than 50% chance that Wofford wins all three of these, EVEN if Samford beats Wofford 100-0. Now if this post upsets you, then you are taking a message board WAY too seriously! Because at the end of the day, who really freakin’ cares what some random anonymous jackass posting on a message board thinks about ANYTHING, am I right? Plus, all us posters here have zero, yes ZERO, influence on the outcome of the games on the field anyway!

[FUBeAR]

Okay, here are my two cents:

The Samford game should be an excellent game. Either Wofford or Samford could win this one. But regardless of the outcome of that game, I think Wofford fans have a right to expect wins over Chatty, ETSU and VMI simply based on their records. This doesn’t mean that Wofford will definitely and 100% win all these games. Hell, the world may end and these games might not even be played! An asteroid might crash into the planet, that Yellowstone volcano might erupt, or North Korea might irradiate us all with nukes...but I disgress. Assuming none of that happens and the games are played, I think that any reasonable person would say that there is a sizably greater than 50% chance that Wofford wins all three of these, EVEN if Samford beats Wofford 100-0. Now if this post upsets you, then you are taking a message board WAY too seriously! Because at the end of the day, who really freakin’ cares what some random anonymous jackass posting on a message board thinks about ANYTHING, am I right? Plus, all us posters here have zero, yes ZERO, influence on the outcome of the games on the field anyway!

Cool - If those games are played, and Wofford should remain as fortunate as they have been, and wins all 3 of them, would you characterize those 3 wins; those 3-in-a-row, 2-on-the-road, 3 SoCon WINS as "not much of an accomplishment?"

If you would, I bet I know where you can find an entire Coaching Staff and about 100 young men who would wholeheartedly disagree with you. (HINT: It's near THE Beacon Drive-In)

[woffordgrad94]

Nope, ANY win in the SoCon is an accomplishment. I’m just saying that Wofford should be favored in all three games. Never did I say that winning them would not be any kind of accomplishment. It is an assumption on YOUR part that I thought that.

[FUBeAR]

Nope, ANY win in the SoCon is an accomplsihment. I’m just saying that Wofford should be favored in all three games. Never did I say that winning them would not be any kind of accomplishment. It is an assumption on YOUR part that I thought that.


Nope - I did not assume that you would. I asked you if you would. And you wouldn't, of course. No REASONABLE person would say that, right?

[Reign of Terrier]

Present your data with the number of decimal places displayed as fixed; not floating...if you want anyone to read it. The number of places may vary for clarity as needed, but should be standardized when reading by column (in this case; could need to be by row; depending upon how you have designed your array).

Please describe the extent and results of the validation testing you have done on your predictive model.

How do I do the fixed bit in excel/google sheets? And I'll start testing it this week. It's not going to be perfect on the first try (I'm not sure how to account for standard deviation...I'm self-taught in excel and statistics). And admittedly, it's a pretty rough model in terms of predictiveness (for now at least) as it's only an average for baseline expectations of scoring possessions, but not scores itself. Even then, 4.7 possessions compared to 4.3 could have the former round down and the latter round up, so if Mercer scores 5 times and Furman 4, it's not technically wrong, because it's an average and the margin of error is 1 I guess.

I'm just using the above as a model of baseline expectations more so than a predictive model for a specific outcome. The Socon is really close this year with a diverse set of offensive philosophies, so a lot of these numbers are all over the place. but I think in a conference with more consistency in style of play (like the MVFC), it may be more clear-cut.

Having said that, I'm using the averages/hybrids as the baseline. So for example in the Furman game this weekend, I think Mercer makes too many mistakes on offense and leaves points on the field while Furman has been solid on getting touchdowns instead of field goals. Though the number of possible scoring possessions are similar/too close to call, given this I'm picking Furman.

[woffordgrad94]

Nope - I did not assume that you would. I asked you if you would. And you wouldn't, of course. No REASONABLE person would say that, right?
You are right my friend! :)

[FUBeAR]

How do I do the fixed bit in excel/google sheets?

Google Sheets...

Main Menu (Top Toolbar) > Format > Number

OR

Main Menu (Top Toolbar) > Format > Number > More Formats > Custom Number Format

[gofurman]

What I'm interested in seeing is whether or not Furman can win a close one. It's a criticism of FCS coaches when they can't win the close games (there are a few that come to mind). Hendrix gets a mulligan given the full context, but Lamb obviously needs this one worse than Hendrix.

I don't mean to take away from Furman's accomplishments this season, but with the limited sample we have, they've bulldozed bad teams and lost the close games. This game is more likely to be a close loss than a blowout. It'll be a good game to watch

Hendrix should get more of a Mulligan. We are coming off a 3 win Fowler season w a ton of seniors and systems that had been in place for years. Now we have a New 3-4 D. New HC. New DC. Tons of freshman and injuries. It's amazing we are eve. looking at a possible winning record. This is already a year ahead in my opinion. Even if we finish 5-6 that's impressive. He is changing our culture back to the Bobby Johnson days.

For perspective Bobby Johnson led us to the Title game in 2001 and we went 3-8 his first year

[walliver]

My (somewhat later than usual) Power Rankings:
1) Wofford - winning has its privileges.

2-4) these three have little separation so far
2) Western Carolina - beating Sammy, even in a close game at home, gives the Cants the edge
3) Samford - we'll know a lot more about them by Saturday night
4) Furman - have a tough schedule for last half of season with WCU, Sammy and the Citadel.

5) Mercer - still in contention, but big underdogs the rest of the season.
6) The Citadel - disappointing year, but they did lose a lot from last year's team.
7) ETSU - about as expected in their development
8) Chattanooga - who would have predicted this?
9) VMI - not much to say here.

This week:
Mercer at Furman. Both teams are currently on winning streaks, but a suspect the senior horsie QB outperforms the cubbie RS-F down the stretch and FU win 39-28
Samford at Wofford - a 2 point bullpup win last year, but somehow the Big Dogs of the SoCon pull out a 20.1-20 terrier win.
Western at VMI - VMI has kept games close for the first half of the last several games, but this one gets ugly fast and the Cants beat the Roos 53-20.
The Citadel at Chattanooga - Despite the Trainbirds woes this year, they have the talent to play with anybody. The Chucktown bullpups, however, are too well coached to fall apart and win 37-21.


Playoff Predictions: I suspect a SoCon team needs to go 8-3 with 7 D1 wins and at least 6-2 in conference to feel confident on selection Sunday. A lesser resume may work, but I doubt it.
1) Wofford - Win over South Carolina is unlikely, but winning 2 of next 4 in SoCon should be enough. Winning all 4 would get a seed.
2) Western Carolina - With a 12 game schedule, and likely loss to UNC, 8-4 should get them in. They need to win 3 out of 4 amongst VMI, Furman, the Citadel and Mercer. Davidson win won't help if they end up on the bubble at 7-5.
3) Samford - SEC loss out of the way - Need to win 4 of next 5 SoCon games (Wofford, Mercer, Furman as well as ETSU and Chattanooga). With 2 losses would be on a bubble. D2 win won't help, but if Kennesaw keeps playing well, that may be the difference.
4) Furman - With ACC loss already out of the way, The horsies really need to win all 4. Their next 4 are all winnable, and all losable (Mercer, Western, Citadel (rivalry game) and Samford). Elon loss doesn't look as bad now. Possibly late season momentum could get them past the bubble.
5) Mercer - Need to beat Furman, Western, Samford, and Alabama to get to 8-3. 7 wins puts them on the bubble, and 6-2 conference record might help, but Jacksonville win won't.
6) The Citadel - Needs to run the table, beating Clemson in the process, to get to 7 D-1 wins, needs to beat Chatty, Western, VMI and FU just to get to 6 and their OOC won't help there.
7) ETSU - need to beat Wofford and Samford, as well as Chatty and VMI to get to 6 wins.
8) Chattanooga - maximum of 5 D-I wins
9) VMI - maximum of 4 wins, and that isn't likely.
My guess: Wofford, Western, and winner of Samford-FU.

[Reign of Terrier]

Google Sheets...

Main Menu (Top Toolbar) > Format > Number

OR

Main Menu (Top Toolbar) > Format > Number > More Formats > Custom Number Format

Thanks! I found an alternative way. Here's what the predictions come out to for this week. The teams highlighted green are who the "formula" predicts has an edge (if ever so slightly). I have my own opinion as to how these games will go, but I think given what we know so far of each opponent, it's a reasonable forecast



Week 8
hybrid
Mercer best case
Furman best case
average


Mercer
4.15
4.51
3.72
4.13


Furman
4.38
3.47
4.99
4.28



hybrid
Samford best case scenario
Wofford best case



Wofford
3.63
3.47
4.24
3.78


Samford
4.54
4.78
3.84
4.39



hybrid
Western best case
VMI best case
average


Western
5.88
5.88
4.08
5.28


VMI
2.50
2.50
4.08
3.03



hybrid
Citadel best case
Mocs best case scenario



Chattanooga
3.00
3.00
3.99
3.33


Citadel
3.88
4.47
3.38
3.91



And before anyone points it out, yes I'm aware that this formula picks or favors Samford. The conclusion I draw from that is that if Wofford is as good as we think, they'll tip the odds in their favor. Samford on paper is good right now (as evident by the numbers), but I'm less certain of how good they are, given the small sample we have. If they have an "average" game, they should win, but a decisive Wofford win may reposition the average expectation of them (as that's how averages work)

[PaladinFan]

I think you are reading way to much into this. If you concede a small sample size, why are you dedicated to these metrics?

Samford isn't just good on paper. Samford is good in real life. Watch the games. Their defense has steadily improved, they are coming off a bye week, and, unlike the Citadel, they can actually complete a forward pass.

[ElCid]

I think you are reading way to much into this. If you concede a small sample size, why are you dedicated to these metrics?

Samford isn't just good on paper. Samford is good in real life. Watch the games. Their defense has steadily improved, they are coming off a bye week, and, unlike the Citadel, they can actually complete a forward pass.

Ouch. Yeah Samford is good, but their numbers might be a bit skewed since they scored like 5 times in about 7 plays against us. We were MIA for about 20 minutes of that game. And after a bye week no less.

[PaladinFan]

Ouch. Yeah Samford is good, but their numbers might be a bit skewed since they scored like 5 times in about 7 plays against us. We were MIA for about 20 minutes of that game. And after a bye week no less.

That's sort of my point. Every team has a small sample size. The numbers are suggestive of certain trends, but not necessarily dispositive of them.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think you are reading way to much into this. If you concede a small sample size, why are you dedicated to these metrics?

Samford isn't just good on paper. Samford is good in real life. Watch the games. Their defense has steadily improved, they are coming off a bye week, and, unlike the Citadel, they can actually complete a forward pass.

Well, keep in mind, I'm using Southern conference performance as a baseline, and Samford has only played 3 games: Citadel, Western and VMI; everyone else has 4, except Mercer who has 5. VMI butchers averages.

I'm basically using the averages at face value, which will obviously be skewed for the less data we have, but as we progress to the end of the season, I'm hoping it will be more accurate.

So I'm using the most flattering data I can with Samford because if I don't people will assert I'm being biased. Regardless, it's just an forecast of a probabilistic universe, in which only one outcome will happen, so many people won't be happy. I'm doing this for ****s and giggles,

It's not going to be perfect, but I'm hoping it can help us figure out whether or not a team overperformed on a single day relative to the rest of the schedule. I think I've also figured out a way to put weight on the possessions, so I can turn those obscure decimals into scoring forecasts, but I won't know for certain how reliable it is until we see some scores.

[wcugrad95]

What I can tell in watching SoCon football is execution is what matters - there are some all-out studs on every team, but for the most part nobody just purely out-studs (TM) the other teams. Wofford is clearly a team that executes what they want to do well, and as long as they take care of the ball they will stay in pretty much any game they play. But Samford has improved defensively quite a bit since playing WCU (I will add that was the last time WCU's offense was at full-strength). Samford's offensive numbers might also be down some from then, but I can tell you that if Hodge's and his receivers are in-sync like they were against Western they can absolutely move the ball up and down the field almost at will. I think there is only 2 possible outcomes - a very close game that could be like most of Wofford's (close to last team with the ball wins) or Samford plays lights-out and wins convincingly (at least 2 TDs) - I don't see Wofford being able to pull away the way Samford ***could*** do. Given it is at Wofford, I certainly expect the close game scenario.

[SU DOG]

Yeah it's easy to figure out how to beat the Terriers. They are a team that has trouble coming back in the 4th quarter if they are trailing. Trouble is they have to be trailing by at least 35-40 points in that 4th quarter. xlolx

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm worried about this game. We had trouble getting pressure on Hodges last year, and we've been inexcusably bad at applying pressure this year, dead last in sacks in the conference. Even though we're number one in pass defense in the conference, we can't let Hodges pick us apart and we can't let him scramble either.

This game is going to be decided on third down and with the turnover battle. If we can out-convert Samford and win the turnover battle, we'll win. If it's ambiguous if we've succeeded on those fronts, we'll lose.

[Toby]

Mercer seems poised to strike this week. Winners of 3 straight in convincing fashion, but they will need a better road effort than when they went to ETSU. Will the team that battled Auburn to the brink show up, the team that had Wofford on the ropes, or will it drop the ball in its most important game of the season. I think Mercer comes to the game ready to make its move in the SoCOn, Bobby Lamb will want this game bad, and they have the tools to do it. I think Furman's youth and imjury issues show up in this one. I like Mercer 28-24 in this one.





Man, truer words have not been spoken than these. It is very hard to reconcile the ETSU game with the rest of Mercer's effort this year.

[Toby]

I wasn't trying to be adversarial, just curious as to how you got there. I personally never thought of this as a rebuilding year. Yes, there was a big senior class that was lost, and I love and appreciate everything those men did to get the program going, but as far as starters and "snaps" lost, Russ was really the glaring departure. Also Robert Brown, Tyler Ward, Tosin Aguebor, Bret Neiderreither, Kirby Southard, Avery White. But I feel like, from a pure talent standpoint, as good if not better on the defensive side. RB is crazy better because everyone was hurt last year. Skill players are some of the best in the league (WR and TE) Certainly the Oline losses really hurt (Bret, Kirby, Avery) and I think we are seeing some of that with the offensive struggles. And breaking in a new QB is tough, but unless losing a long time starting QB always puts you in rebuilding mode, I wouldn't have classified us that way.

I think that's part of the frustration level with a lot of fans because we knew (with Russ being gone the glaring exception) the cupboard was far from bare coming back into this year. I fully expected this to be a competing for the league title kind of team, just from a talent standpoint.

And it's amazing how much one game matters, because if the ETSU game goes a different way, I think the opinion and feeling about this team is completely different. I mean, completely. Probably ranked.

But I never thought of this as a rebuilding year.

Nice recognition of the Mercer last year seniors. This might have to temper our disagreement over the ETSU coaching performance. :)

[Reign of Terrier]

So what's the verdict on Mercer from Mercer fans? In conference standings they're right where they've always been right now and a lot of their final games could go either way. We know they have a good defense. Right now, I think they'll finish 5-6 or 6-5, but this team does not "feel" like that kind of team, watching from a distance.

I think there are 2, maybe 3 tiers in the Socon
Top Tier:
Wofford
Western
Samford
Furman (I think the bottom of this tier may end up with comparable records to the middle tier)

Middle:
Mercer
Citadel
ETSU

Bottom:
Chattanooga
VMI

The thing that's keeping Mercer in that middle tier, from the win/loss perspective is that loss to ETSU. And it's really weird to say because it doesn't feel like Mercer is middle tier (they should be in every game here on out, sans Bama). It also speaks to the strength of the program that the "rebuilding year" is only one loss less than last year.

Mercer is gonna be scary in the next couple of years and I anticipate that they'll break the close game mold.

[wcugrad95]

I think the "Any Given Saturday" hit Mercer in the ETSU game. Had they won, they would be exactly where Western and Furman are with 1 razor-thin loss to Wofford in the league. I know the game counts, but the fact that any team (especially in the top-7) ***can*** beat any of the other teams if they play poorly could bite any of your "top tier" teams. I don't think anybody will be totally surprised if Citadel finds more of the play they had in the first half against you guys and beats any team left on their SoCon schedule (including a couple that are in that top grouping). The ETSU loss hurts Mercer, but should they win on Saturday they are back in the hunt for a high conference finish and possible playoff berth. I am not going to be surprised to see multiple teams with 2 or 3 conference losses - which might hurt the conferences chances for more than 2 to at the most 3 playoff teams. For WCU, I truly think we have to win at least 3 of the 4 SoCon games left and that is going to be a tall order - another situation that nobody will be shocked if we do no better than 2-2. If Wofford wins Saturday they will stand-alone at the top, and if Mercer beats Furman I think we will still have 4 teams bunched in that "right behind Wofford" grouping. If Wofford loses in that scenario, then we have 5 teams bunched - 3 with 1 and 2 with 2 conference losses.

I guess the point is after this weekend there could be some real definition to the very top, but there is still not a lot of distance down to probably the 5 spot.

[BearDownMU]

So what's the verdict on Mercer from Mercer fans? In conference standings they're right where they've always been right now and a lot of their final games could go either way. We know they have a good defense. Right now, I think they'll finish 5-6 or 6-5, but this team does not "feel" like that kind of team, watching from a distance.

I think there are 2, maybe 3 tiers in the Socon
Top Tier:
Wofford
Western
Samford
Furman (I think the bottom of this tier may end up with comparable records to the middle tier)

Middle:
Mercer
Citadel
ETSU

Bottom:
Chattanooga
VMI

The thing that's keeping Mercer in that middle tier, from the win/loss perspective is that loss to ETSU. And it's really weird to say because it doesn't feel like Mercer is middle tier (they should be in every game here on out, sans Bama). It also speaks to the strength of the program that the "rebuilding year" is only one loss less than last year.

Mercer is gonna be scary in the next couple of years and I anticipate that they'll break the close game mold.

The question is: Is this "tiering" system about performance, or team ability/potential. If it'a about ability and potential, and Wofford is the first team in the first tier, then, to me, Mercer is right in that mix. Mercer really dominated Wofford that game and then completely crapped the bed in the 4th Q. Mercer with a 13 point lead with 8 minutes to go and then has 3 turnovers in the last 6 minutes of the game? Ugh. I still want to hurl just thinking about it. But given that, I certainly feel like that wouldn't put Mercer in a different "tier" than Wofford.

If it's about performance, then I think this "system" makes sense given the results that have been had. To wcugrad95's point, would anyone be surprised if Wofford/Samford/WCU/Furman/Mercer (even CIT, really) beat any one of the others at this point? None of those would be shockers, no matter how they went.

Our reality is we have a R-Fr QB and a 60% new offensive line that has had some struggles. And that's been the difference in game, IMO. Line play that isn't super consistent and a young signal caller can lend itself to... unexpected, sometimes head scratching results.

And, I won't go over the whys again to save everyone's eyes, but this wasn't a rebuilding year to me. And I think most Mercer people would agree with that statement.

[Reign of Terrier]

The question is: Is this "tiering" system about performance, or team ability/potential. If it'a about ability and potential, and Wofford is the first team in the first tier, then, to me, Mercer is right in that mix. Mercer really dominated Wofford that game and then completely crapped the bed in the 4th Q. Mercer with a 13 point lead with 8 minutes to go and then has 3 turnovers in the last 6 minutes of the game? Ugh. I still want to hurl just thinking about it. But given that, I certainly feel like that wouldn't put Mercer in a different "tier" than Wofford.

If it's about performance, then I think this "system" makes sense given the results that have been had. To wcugrad95's point, would anyone be surprised if Wofford/Samford/WCU/Furman/Mercer (even CIT, really) beat any one of the others at this point? None of those would be shockers, no matter how they went.

Our reality is we have a R-Fr QB and a 60% new offensive line that has had some struggles. And that's been the difference in game, IMO. Line play that isn't super consistent and a young signal caller can lend itself to... unexpected, sometimes head scratching results.

And, I won't go over the whys again to save everyone's eyes, but this wasn't a rebuilding year to me. And I think most Mercer people would agree with that statement.

Yeah, the tiering I'm talking about final record. for just the eye test, the first 6 are indistinguishable from each other with individual games being outliers.

My point was, most succinctly, was that Mercer "feels" top tier, but the end result of their season (whether that be through dumb mistakes like ETSU or dumb administrative mistakes like playing both Bama and Auburn) will see them only as "mid-tier" and it doesn't feel right.

[BearDownMU]

or dumb administrative mistakes like playing both Bama and Auburn

Actually, the way I understood it, we were trying to get 'Bama scheduled for next year and because of conflicts it ended up in a position of "play it this year (in 2017) or not at all." And I think that was done a couple of years ago with Auburn already booked. Seems more likely that we may not have thought "We are sitting in year two of scholarship football and by year 4 of scholarship football (this year), we will be competing for a playoff spot and possibly a conference title, so don't schedule those in the same year, dum dum!" but rather were thinking "That's a truckload of cash AND we are a brand new program and it's great exposure for us, so if we are going to schedule like this, let's do it while we are still young."

But I'm only speculating.

[wcugrad95]

2 SEC teams on the schedule ***can*** possibly knock you out of the playoffs - it certainly drastically decreases the margin for error (arguably cost WCU in at least one of our recent 7-win seasons). But our kids got exposure, got to play in some incredible venues, and we cashed some HUGE checks to help the stability of our program over the past 3 or 4 seasons. Play well in those games and you get lots of FCS respect - play poorly and get blown out and it is generally ignored. I don't want to play multiple SEC teams again, but for Mercer I think they were itching to play some games like this.

[Toby]

So what's the verdict on Mercer from Mercer fans?


This Mercer fan expected Mercer to be in the top tier of the SoCon and in the hunt for a playoff spot. It could still happen, but we will have to win out in the SoCon which is a tall order. The Bears have had one bad game and one bad quarter, otherwise you have to be pleased with how they have played. The defense is clearly one of the top tier defenses in the SoCon. The offense has to continue to show improvement but appears to be getting better as the season progresses. So the Furman game is huge with a lot on the line for both teams.

[Toby]

2 SEC teams on the schedule ***can*** possibly knock you out of the playoffs - it certainly drastically decreases the margin for error (arguably cost WCU in at least one of our recent 7-win seasons). But our kids got exposure, got to play in some incredible venues, and we cashed some HUGE checks to help the stability of our program over the past 3 or 4 seasons. Play well in those games and you get lots of FCS respect - play poorly and get blown out and it is generally ignored. I don't want to play multiple SEC teams again, but for Mercer I think they were itching to play some games like this.

I believe if Mercer wins out in the SoCon and goes 6-2, they will get a playoff spot. If they go 5-3, they won't and probably shouldn't get a playoff spot. The Auburn and Alabama games are probably not relevant as it relates to the playoffs.

[wcugrad95]

I would agree with that - 6 wins in the SoCon should count for a lot, but that is probably required by whoever we have that gets in (5-3 in conference probably would need a good OOC win). The Jacksonville game doesn't do you any favors, just like WCU playing Davidson doesn't help us, either.

But for comparison's sake, WCU went 7-4 a couple of years ago with losses to the top-2 teams in the SoCon (one loss was to #4 ranked UTC), and SEC losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M. We didn't make the playoffs not because of those 2 FBS losses, but because our other 2 wins were against Mars Hill and Presbyterian.

[Toby]

I would agree with that - 6 wins in the SoCon should count for a lot, but that is probably required by whoever we have that gets in (5-3 in conference probably would need a good OOC win). The Jacksonville game doesn't do you any favors, just like WCU playing Davidson doesn't help us, either.

But for comparison's sake, WCU went 7-4 a couple of years ago with losses to the top-2 teams in the SoCon (one loss was to #4 ranked UTC), and SEC losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M. We didn't make the playoffs not because of those 2 FBS losses, but because our other 2 wins were against Mars Hill and Presbyterian.

Must have been 1 less conference game and 1 more OCC game that year compared to this year.

[wcugrad95]

Must have been 1 less conference game and 1 more OCC game that year compared to this year.

Yes - this was 2015 and was before ETSU started back playing SoCon games. The 8 SoCon games actually help in that you don't have to find an extra game to go along with an FBS (or 2). But it also means you *presumably* play a tougher team.

[Reign of Terrier]

This Mercer fan expected Mercer to be in the top tier of the SoCon and in the hunt for a playoff spot. It could still happen, but we will have to win out in the SoCon which is a tall order. The Bears have had one bad game and one bad quarter, otherwise you have to be pleased with how they have played. The defense is clearly one of the top tier defenses in the SoCon. The offense has to continue to show improvement but appears to be getting better as the season progresses. So the Furman game is huge with a lot on the line for both teams.

I think Mercer has one of the best, if not the best defenses in the conference.

I believe if Mercer wins out in the SoCon and goes 6-2, they will get a playoff spot. If they go 5-3, they won't and probably shouldn't get a playoff spot. The Auburn and Alabama games are probably not relevant as it relates to the playoffs.

Speculatively, A 7-4 Mercer team, whose only FCS losses are to a (tentative) conference champion Wofford and ETSU may make the playoffs provided Furman (7-4) wins out and Western Carolina (7-5) wins out against FCS. My head kind of hurts deducing all of the logic behind it, but Mercer needs a quality win, not just quality losses, and the only way that happens is if one of Furman/Samford/Western plummets while the other two win out (with the exception of against Mercer). So I would presume the best case would be Furman plummeting, because Samford and Western have already played each other, so giving each another loss puts them at 8-3 and 8-4 respectively. That would give Mercer 2 quality wins, one bad loss, one good FCS loss, a quality FBS loss and an irrelevant FBS game.

That would be the Mercer path in, without any judgement over its likelihood. If Furman and Mercer win out, Western Carolina is sitting at a pitiful 7-5 with the only quality win being against hypothetical 7-4 win Samford (and it gets worse for Mercer if Samford loses to Wofford this week).

All that said, in 2002 Wofford won 9 games (8 D1, at least) and didn't get in the playoffs.

TL;DR if you're a Mercer fan, you're a big fan of Western Carolina and Samford, unless you play them. You Hate Furman; You either want Wofford to lay 4 eggs to make the conference standings competitive or you want them to go 9-2 and there's not much in between.

[BearDownMU]

I'm just hoping we go 1-0 this week.

[PaladinFan]

Actually, the way I understood it, we were trying to get 'Bama scheduled for next year and because of conflicts it ended up in a position of "play it this year (in 2017) or not at all." And I think that was done a couple of years ago with Auburn already booked. Seems more likely that we may not have thought "We are sitting in year two of scholarship football and by year 4 of scholarship football (this year), we will be competing for a playoff spot and possibly a conference title, so don't schedule those in the same year, dum dum!" but rather were thinking "That's a truckload of cash AND we are a brand new program and it's great exposure for us, so if we are going to schedule like this, let's do it while we are still young."

But I'm only speculating.

Scheduling two FBS games is almost always a bad idea in terms of playoffs.

App State made the post season in 2005, I think, with losses to LSU and Kansas, but you leave yourself little room for error. That team went on to win the national title, and could easily have not even been in the field had they had a bad game along the way.

[gofurman]

My (somewhat later than usual) Power Rankings:
1) Wofford - winning has its privileges.

2-4) these three have little separation so far
2) Western Carolina - beating Sammy, even in a close game at home, gives the Cants the edge
3) Samford - we'll know a lot more about them by Saturday night
4) Furman - have a tough schedule for last half of season with WCU, Sammy and the Citadel.

5) Mercer - still in contention, but big underdogs the rest of the season.
6) The Citadel - disappointing year, but they did lose a lot from last year's team.
7) ETSU - about as expected in their development
8) Chattanooga - who would have predicted this?
9) VMI - not much to say here.

This week:
Mercer at Furman. Both teams are currently on winning streaks, but a suspect the senior horsie QB outperforms the cubbie RS-F down the stretch and FU win 39-28
Samford at Wofford - a 2 point bullpup win last year, but somehow the Big Dogs of the SoCon pull out a 20.1-20 terrier win.
Western at VMI - VMI has kept games close for the first half of the last several games, but this one gets ugly fast and the Cants beat the Roos 53-20.
The Citadel at Chattanooga - Despite the Trainbirds woes this year, they have the talent to play with anybody. The Chucktown bullpups, however, are too well coached to fall apart and win 37-21.


Playoff Predictions: I suspect a SoCon team needs to go 8-3 with 7 D1 wins and at least 6-2 in conference to feel confident on selection Sunday. A lesser resume may work, but I doubt it.
1) Wofford - Win over South Carolina is unlikely, but winning 2 of next 4 in SoCon should be enough. Winning all 4 would get a seed.
2) Western Carolina - With a 12 game schedule, and likely loss to UNC, 8-4 should get them in. They need to win 3 out of 4 amongst VMI, Furman, the Citadel and Mercer. Davidson win won't help if they end up on the bubble at 7-5.
3) Samford - SEC loss out of the way - Need to win 4 of next 5 SoCon games (Wofford, Mercer, Furman as well as ETSU and Chattanooga). With 2 losses would be on a bubble. D2 win won't help, but if Kennesaw keeps playing well, that may be the difference.
4) Furman - With ACC loss already out of the way, The horsies really need to win all 4. Their next 4 are all winnable, and all losable (Mercer, Western, Citadel (rivalry game) and Samford). Elon loss doesn't look as bad now. Possibly late season momentum could get them past the bubble.
5) Mercer - Need to beat Furman, Western, Samford, and Alabama to get to 8-3. 7 wins puts them on the bubble, and 6-2 conference record might help, but Jacksonville win won't.
6) The Citadel - Needs to run the table, beating Clemson in the process, to get to 7 D-1 wins, needs to beat Chatty, Western, VMI and FU just to get to 6 and their OOC won't help there.
7) ETSU - need to beat Wofford and Samford, as well as Chatty and VMI to get to 6 wins.
8) Chattanooga - maximum of 5 D-I wins
9) VMI - maximum of 4 wins, and that isn't likely.
My guess: Wofford, Western, and winner of Samford-FU.

gotta think a 7-4 Furman team would get in playoffs. Not saying we go 7-4. 5 or 6 wins would be super improvement and look great going forward. Just IF we somehow got 7-4 I am pretty sure that gets in as that means wins over WCU or Sammy or both w losses to Woff by 1 and Elon by 3 in first two games.

[gofurman]

One knock on Furman and rightly so has been… do they have the talent on the field that scares the opposition? For a long time there we played slow and predictable or so complex we suffered in identity.

Hendrix's from the very beginning seemed to have an identity of what he saw as Paladin Football. FuBear can speak more too this but I'm guessing it's step-in-step with the Sheridan era.

If commits hold - based on what's on the field now and combining the commits already in the fold. Future Furman teams will be far more athletic and physical in the trenches. Now if we can keep JMU from stealing our QB commit.

which QB is that ?

[PaladinFan]

[/B]

which QB is that ?

Hayden Mann. Good looking QB commit from North Carolina. James Madison offered him after he announced Furman commit.

[PaladinFan]

According to game notes, Furman should have a number of players back from injury that have either been out or limited the last few weeks.

[woffordgrad94]

Hayden Mann. Good looking QB commit from North Carolina. James Madison offered him after he announced Furman commit.
I know Furman is one of our main rivals and I am supposed to hate you (and I do). But still, I’d much rather go play in Greenville, SC than Harrisonburg, VA. And before anyone asks, yes, I have been to Harrisonburg. I go right through JMU on I-81 on my way to nuclear plants in PA and NY. I’ve passed nights in Harrisonburg a couple of times. Give me Greenville!

[PaladinFan]

An almost unbelievable stat posted over the weekend from Scott Keeler at furmansportsreport.com: http://www.furmansportsreport.com/2017/10/depth-paying-off-for-furman-running-game.html

Furman has had three straight games rushing for over 290 yards.

Between 2006-2016, Furman rushed for 290+ only five times.

What a difference a year makes.

[PaladinFan]

I know Furman is one of our main rivals and I am supposed to hate you (and I do). But still, I’d much rather go play in Greenville, SC than Harrisonburg, VA. And before anyone asks, yes, I have been to Harrisonburg. I go right through JMU on I-81 on my way to nuclear plants in PA and NY. I’ve passed nights in Harrisonburg a couple of times. Give me Greenville!

I'm never 100% comfortable until national signing day. From what I can see on video, Wofford fans should hope this kid decides he likes Harrisonburg better than Greenville.

[FUGameBreaker]

An almost unbelievable stat posted over the weekend from Scott Keeler at furmansportsreport.com: http://www.furmansportsreport.com/2017/10/depth-paying-off-for-furman-running-game.html

Furman has had three straight games rushing for over 290 yards.

Between 2006-2016, Furman rushed for 290+ only five times.

What a difference a year makes.


Nice!

[Reign of Terrier]

One of the quantitative differences between Furman last year and this year:

Furman averages running the ball 20 times more per game than they did last year. 16 less passing games.

[PaladinFan]

One of the quantitative differences between Furman last year and this year:

Furman averages running the ball 20 times more per game than they did last year. 16 less passing games.

Scheme, coaching, and offensive line play.

If there's one aspect of Furman's resurgence that should concern other SoCon teams long term, it is the offensive line. Clay Hendrix has built a career's worth of reputation on developing offensive linemen. The difference in that single aspect of Furman's game from an execution and physicality standpoint is astounding.

The Paladin's two deep OL has 5 freshmen, 3 sophomores, and 2 seniors. These guys are going to develop into a pretty impressive unit, I would imagine.

[FurmanWins!!]

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/921540489815494656

[ElCid]

Updated SOCON preview on the FCS Wedge.

http://thefcswedge.com/socon/socon-week-8-preview-2/

[FUGameBreaker]

Gameday!

[Terrier19]

GAMEDAY!!!!!!! all prognostications and forecasts out the window....Time to get the plastic popping...GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!!

[Terrier19]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=26334&stc=1

[PaladinFan]

Furman goes up 14-7 with under a minute before half time.

[PaladinFan]

Furman wins another nailbiter over Mercer 28-21

[PaladinFan]

Well, “separation Saturday” just moved a bunch of teams closer together.

[JHWCUGrad07]

I would agree with that - 6 wins in the SoCon should count for a lot, but that is probably required by whoever we have that gets in (5-3 in conference probably would need a good OOC win). The Jacksonville game doesn't do you any favors, just like WCU playing Davidson doesn't help us, either.

But for comparison's sake, WCU went 7-4 a couple of years ago with losses to the top-2 teams in the SoCon (one loss was to #4 ranked UTC), and SEC losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M. We didn't make the playoffs not because of those 2 FBS losses, but because our other 2 wins were against Mars Hill and Presbyterian.

Davidson won’t hurt us because they are FCS and not D2. That’s why they were scheduled instead of a Presbyterian or mars hill.

[PaladinFan]

Davidson won’t hurt us because they are FCS and not D2. That’s why they were scheduled instead of a Presbyterian or mars hill.

PC is a D1 scholarship program. Mars Hill is not.

[GoCats1985]

Davidson won’t hurt us because they are FCS and not D2. That’s why they were scheduled instead of a Presbyterian or mars hill.

Catawba College was the D2 school scheduled in the 2014 season

[Terrier19]

Great win by Furman today, do not know a thing about the game at all other than the score but thats a big time win. Mercer is tough as nails.

[PaladinFan]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AKK4288yQJc

Real physical football game. Great win for the Paladins.

[walliver]

Davidson won’t hurt us because they are FCS and not D2. That’s why they were scheduled instead of a Presbyterian or mars hill.

A win over Davidson can help get a team to the minimum of 6 wins, but will impress absolutely nobody on the committee. Davidson is horrible, even by PFL standards.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[wcugrad95]

A win over Davidson can help get a team to the minimum of 6 wins, but will impress absolutely nobody on the committee. Davidson is horrible, even by PFL standards.



I agree with this. Davidson is better than scheduling Mars Hill, but isn't going to impress playoff voters. Gardner Webb has been a disappointment, and that is something we can't control - they were something like a pre-season top-3 in the Big South. It would have been much better to schedule Kennesaw State this year, but schedules are not easy to put together and it is a crap shoot when scheduling a Big South team in advance. The SoCon is still going to be considered a top 3 or 4 conference, so our teams have to rely on 5 or 6 conference wins carrying weight more than anything any SoCon team did OOC (unless we all get some wins against SEC and ACC teams in that last week!).