AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 10 2016

[superman7515]

Still waiting on the #1 Eastern Washington/#10 Cal Poly game, but they got a late start, so everything else is wrapped up until the computer updates tomorrow morning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a5fyXQ1VFjfIv5D2smHVYsFVK_MTPmyn3GENY6oJr_M/edit?usp=sharing

So which six D1 win teams are making the watered-down playoffs, because it certainly looks like it's going to happen again this year...

[TheKingpin28]

Still waiting on the #1 Eastern Washington/#10 Cal Poly game, but they got a late start, so everything else is wrapped up until the computer updates tomorrow morning.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a5fyXQ1VFjfIv5D2smHVYsFVK_MTPmyn3GENY6oJr_M/edit?usp=sharing

So which six D1 win teams are making the watered-down playoffs, because it certainly looks like it's going to happen again this year...

My favorite part of the Saturday Night/Sunday Morning! Thanks again so much!

[Twentysix]

Game is over EWU won.

[BEAR]

The Bears win again.
8-1
Ugly game though. 6 turnovers but we still won by nearly 3 TDs. Hard for any team to win with that many turnovers let alone win that decisevly.
500 yards of offense.
Held SFA to 59 yards rushing.
Just keep winning.....

[superman7515]

Game is over EWU won.

Posted the score, but probably won't have a write-up for a bit.

[MTfan4life]

So which six D1 win teams are making the watered-down playoffs, because it certainly looks like it's going to happen again this year...

Illinois State

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Illinois State

I was going to say them. They'll have some really good wins including one over a decent Northwestern (better than your typical 4-5 record indicate) team.

Another team people aren't talking about it seems is Nicholls State. If they beat UCA next week they get in. The Colonels had those close calls early against FBS teams then fell into the obscurity of the SLC. They're pretty good imo...

[Daytripper]

The Bears win again.
8-1
Ugly game though. 6 turnovers but we still won by nearly 3 TDs. Hard for any team to win with that many turnovers let alone win that decisevly.
500 yards of offense.
Held SFA to 59 yards rushing.
Just keep winning.....

UCA is a top 5 team. I am not confident in the match up in two weeks.

[Twentysix]

UCA is a top 5 team. I am not confident in the match up in two weeks.

They look top 10 to me, not top 5.

I won't be even a little bit surprised when UCA is seeded and SHSU is not (when UCA beats SHSU).

After they beat SHSU I could see UCA getting the #5 seed.

[BEAR]

UCA is a top 5 team. I am not confident in the match up in two weeks.

Our defense is solid. Our offense though...while getting 30+ points really is faltering or starting waaay too slow. We got to get it going...or you may win by virtue of our inability to score. xlolx

[Daytripper]

Our defense is solid. Our offense though...while getting 30+ points really is faltering or starting waaay too slow. We got to get it going...or you may win by virtue of our inability to score. xlolx

Teams not scoring on us is foreign to me......

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

They look top 10 to me, not top 5.

I won't be even a little bit surprised when UCA is seeded and SHSU is not (when UCA beats SHSU).

After they beat SHSU I could see UCA getting the #5 seed.

The Bears have Nicholls and SHSU to close out the year. That's no picnic. They can't afford to over look NSU. I really think that will be dogfight....

[Bearkat 41]

UCA is solid. They will obviously be the best defense shsu has played all year. The Kats offense will be the best offense the bears have faces all year so it could be an interesting game for sure.

[smilo]

I hadn't realized how many teams are going to be facing elimination in very losable games next week :o

Stony Brook vs. Maine guarantees one gone. Don't look good for South Dakota. Albany has a toughie. UNI has a playoff team - though very winnable. Nicholls has an uphill battle. Can't be too optimistic for Mercer, SUU, or Weber. UNCO is dead as a doornail. NAU can only get to 6-4 vs. D1 (which may be enough), but it requires a win against UND up next. And Wofford could be limited to the same if they fail to win vs UTC.

The playoff picture could be quite decisive after this next round of games.

[Professor Chaos]

Illinois State
I posted this in the MVFC playoff outlook thread as well but I wonder whether having a week 12 bye will hurt a potentially 6-5 Illinois St squad. That's the weekend the entire playoff selection committee will be hunkered down in Indianapolis watching games and trying to sort everything out. All the other bubble teams will be able to put the stamp on their playoff resumes that'll be fresh in the collective mind of the committee. Out of sight out of mind for Illinois St? I certainly hope not but I think it's a valid and unfortunate concern.

[jmufan999]

Illinois State

sounds about right.

[van]

what does everyone think about the NC A&T/NC Central loser?

[caribbeanhen]

what does everyone think about the NC A&T/NC Central loser?

loser should stay home.... What was the latest on MEAC playoff participation anyway?

[Professor Chaos]

what does everyone think about the NC A&T/NC Central loser?
If Central loses no chance I'd say. If A&T loses it would be debatable but ultimately I don't see it unless the bubble implodes.

[kdinva]

This voting will have a lot of variety. Someone ranked 9th by one, will be ranked #16 by someone else. Someone ranked #17 by one, will not be ranked by someone else, etc. etc....

[Professor Chaos]

This voting will have a lot of variety. Someone ranked 9th by one, will be ranked #16 by someone else. Someone ranked #17 by one, will not be ranked by someone else, etc. etc....
Yeah, I felt kind of dirty ranking the teams I did at 7-9 and 15-18. There's a lot of flawed teams in those spots given their respective rankings but there really just isn't much behind them to push them down.

[PantherRob82]

If UNI gets to 6-5 with wins over Western Illinois and South Dakota State I could see them in. If they aren't I won't be making a "UND weight room thread".xlolx

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

If UNI gets to 6-5 with wins over Western Illinois and South Dakota State I could see them in. If they aren't I won't be making a "UND weight room thread".xlolx


Definitely a team to consider with an FBS win and those 2 wins to close out the season.

[superman7515]

Sagarin, Massey, and SOS have been updated. Lots of yellow and red out there!

[Professor Chaos]

If UNI gets to 6-5 with wins over Western Illinois and South Dakota State I could see them in. If they aren't I won't be making a "UND weight room thread".xlolx
It'll be very interesting if both ISUr and UNI get to 6-5. I can't imagine both of them getting in and they didn't play each other this year. Yet both would have pretty equal quality wins with WIU and SDSU for both and then NW for ISUr and Iowa St for UNI. That probably means ISUr would have better wins but UNI would have "better losses" in that their only borderline bad loss would be USD whereas ISUr lost to USD, EIU, and ISUb.

[PantherRob82]

It'll be very interesting if both ISUr and UNI get to 6-5. I can't imagine both of them getting in and they didn't play each other this year. Yet both would have pretty equal quality wins with WIU and SDSU for both and then NW for ISUr and Iowa St for UNI. That probably means ISUr would have better wins but UNI would have "better losses" in that their only borderline bad loss would be USD whereas ISUr lost to USD, EIU, and ISUb.

And last year they valued "good losses". Who knows this year.

[Redbird007]

It'll be very interesting if both ISUr and UNI get to 6-5. I can't imagine both of them getting in and they didn't play each other this year. Yet both would have pretty equal quality wins with WIU and SDSU for both and then NW for ISUr and Iowa St for UNI. That probably means ISUr would have better wins but UNI would have "better losses" in that their only borderline bad loss would be USD whereas ISUr lost to USD, EIU, and ISUb.

...and both UNI and ISU will have finished strong. Would be hard not to take one and leave the other. I like take both vs neither given how they would have finished the season. Big question will be WIU. If they lose to UNI they still have SIU to beat. If they (WIU) lose to both UNI/SIU and finish at 6-5 I believe they are out as they will suffer in quality wins and lost to both UNI/ISU. That may allow both ISU and UNI to make it?

[clenz]

UNI is not a playoff team.

Cease and desist using them in hat context.

[Professor Chaos]

...and both UNI and ISU will have finished strong. Would be hard not to take one and leave the other. I like take both vs neither given how they would have finished the season. Big question will be WIU. If they lose to UNI they still have SIU to beat. If they (WIU) lose to both UNI/SIU and finish at 6-5 I believe they are out as they will suffer in quality wins and lost to both UNI/ISU. That may allow both ISU and UNI to make it?
Yeah, WIU is definitely out in that scenario which would give ISUr and UNI a boost (despite devaluing their wins against WIU). Even at 7-4 I can't imagine the Leathernecks would be feeling too comfortable knowing both UNI and ISUr are sitting at 6-5 with head-to-head losses to each. All hypothetical of course. UNI beating SDSU the last week of the season is a big maybe also.

[Engineer86]

UNI is not a playoff team.

Cease and desist using them in hat context.

There are many teams in the same boat, and the field needs to be filled. Once you are in, it is one game at a time.

[RootinFerDukes]

Can anyone explain how JSU has a significantly better SOS rating compared to The Citadel or JMU?

[RootinFerDukes]

The Bears win again.
8-1
Ugly game though. 6 turnovers but we still won by nearly 3 TDs. Hard for any team to win with that many turnovers let alone win that decisevly.
500 yards of offense.
Held SFA to 59 yards rushing.
Just keep winning.....
Take care of business against SHSU and UCA will be seeded.

[Professor Chaos]

Can anyone explain how JSU has a significantly better SOS rating compared to The Citadel or JMU?
I believe Supe pulls that from Massey so the difference is in the numbers. Here's how each team's opponents stack up (keep in mind the rank in parenthesis is including everyone in FBS, FCS, D2, etc)

JSU
1. LSU (11)
2. Coastal Carolina (119)
3. Liberty (134)
4. North Alabama (156)
5. Eastern Illinois (186)
6. SE Missouri St (220)
7. Tennessee Tech (228)
8. Eastern Kentucky (254)
9. Austin Peay (357)

The Citadel
1. Chattanooga (93)
2. Samford (106)
3. Wofford (126)
4. Mercer (178)
5. Gardner-Webb (187)
6. Furman (188)
7. Western Carolina (222)
8. East Tennessee St (268)
9. North Greenvile (335)

JMU
1. North Carolina (21)
2. Richmond (128)
3. New Hampshire (153)
4. Maine (180)
5. Delaware (213)
6. William & Mary (215)
7. Rhode Island (337)
8. Central Connecticut St (364)
9. Morehead St (382)

So basically the difference between JSU and The Citadel is that JSU has LSU pulling up their SOS. However, The Citadel will get that bump from North Carolina in a couple weeks. JMU has not played a very tough schedule accordingly to Massey's rankings. I think those last 3 really pull down their SOS. And the bottom two were OOC, no one to blame but the AD there.

If you look purely at the strength of each team's wins though JMU looks a lot closer to JSU than the SOS numbers would indicate and The Citadel looks better.

[superman7515]

Forgot to mention the update to ElCid's tracking of Sagarin vs Massey this year. So far:
Massey picks winners 80.4% of time
Sagarin picks winners 79.4% of time

So both are well above average and pretty good indicators.

[RootinFerDukes]

Thank you Professor Chaos. Great analysis and more detail than I expected. JSU is overinflated for having lost to LSU and the Citadel hasn't had an FBS yet to bring their number up. I can't believe Richmond is 128. How? Stony Brook loss and awful UVA team dragging them down?

[ElCid]

Thank you Professor Chaos. Great analysis and more detail than I expected. JSU is overinflated for having lost to LSU and the Citadel hasn't had an FBS yet to bring their number up. I can't believe Richmond is 128. How? Stony Brook loss and awful UVA team dragging them down?

Virginia is ranked 99th, behind many FCS teams, so it didn't help a whole lot. 128 is Richmond's Div I rank so everything that is going on there with FBS moving up and down impacts where Richmond is as well. I also would not characterize the LSU game as overinflating. The same could be said about JMU and UNC or might soon be said about The Citadel and UNC. It is what it is. Just because it may be a probable loss does mean it didn't happen...travel, wear and tear, etc.

Also looking at Richmond, the games that really hurt were Norfolk St(479), Elon(284), and even Towson(236). There are only 253 Div I schools so that really hurts.

[Professor Chaos]

Thank you Professor Chaos. Great analysis and more detail than I expected. JSU is overinflated for having lost to LSU and the Citadel hasn't had an FBS yet to bring their number up. I can't believe Richmond is 128. How? Stony Brook loss and awful UVA team dragging them down?


Virginia is ranked 99th, behind many FCS teams, so it didn't help a whole lot. 128 is Richmond's Div I rank so everything that is going on there with FBS moving up and down impacts where Richmond is as well. I also would not characterize the LSU game as overinflating. The same could be said about JMU and UNC or might soon be said about The Citadel and UNC. It is what it is. Just because it may be a probable loss does mean it didn't happen...travel, wear and tear, etc.

Also looking at Richmond, the games that really hurt were Norfolk St(479), Elon(284), and even Towson(236). There are only 253 Div I schools so that really hurts.
Yeah, and losing to Stony Brook is becoming more of an anchor for their overall rating I think also. Stony Brook dropped to 193 after their loss to W&M so that's a killer. I agree though that Massey has Richmond undervalued. They're below teams like Illinois St and Wofford. Sagarin has Richmond grading out quite a bit better at #12 amongst FCS teams (they're #20 according to Massey).

[BisonFan02]

I can't find 25 good teams in the FCS this year.......woof.

[ElCid]

Yeah, and losing to Stony Brook is becoming more of an anchor for their overall rating I think also. Stony Brook dropped to 193 after their loss to W&M so that's a killer. I agree though that Massey has Richmond undervalued. They're below teams like Illinois St and Wofford. Sagarin has Richmond grading out quite a bit better at #12 amongst FCS teams (they're #20 according to Massey).

I am not so sure. Their only good wins now are Villanova and Virginia who would be ranked 10th in FCS, in massey anyway. But I think they are getting a bit of human support for the dominating Virginia win which is probably deserved. But just looking at computer ratings it is debatable. Also, Albany is now suspect and it took 3 OTs. Plus the increasingly questionable Stoney Brook loss hurts bad. Sagarin rates FBS teams a little more as well. If they would have just beat JMU, this would not even be an issue.

[Twentysix]

I can't find 25 good teams in the FCS this year.......woof.

There have never been 25 good teams. The number of playoff teams has inflated to make more playoff participants. They didn't get any better, the standard to let teams in was lowered.

[JMUNJ08]

I believe Supe pulls that from Massey so the difference is in the numbers. Here's how each team's opponents stack up (keep in mind the rank in parenthesis is including everyone in FBS, FCS, D2, etc)

JSU
5. Eastern Illinois (186)

The Citadel
4. Mercer (178)
5. Gardner-Webb (187)
6. Furman (188)

JMU
4. Maine (180)


Not to cherry pick but those 3 for El Cid I think most work rank behind Maine/ E. Ill (though with their steep slide as the season wears on...). Always interesting how these rankings shake out with not great cross over games to compare

[Cocky]

Not to cherry pick but those 3 for El Cid I think most work rank behind Maine/ E. Ill (though with their steep slide as the season wears on...). Always interesting how these rankings shake out with not great cross over games to compare
EIU looked strong early in the year when they were playing the OOC part of the schedule, but the conference play has set them back. The weak OVC was just too strong for them this year.