Thumper 76
September 26th, 2016, 11:16 AM
Start Time: 6pm Central
Location: Dana J Dykhouse Stadium, Brookings
Television: ESPN3 as well as the MVFC game of the week coverage
Other: Military Appreciation Day, rather fitting with the Leathernecks in town.
So I couldn't wait till noon to put the team rankings in the title, the bye week beforehand is too much for me to wait. I'm impatient. This game looks like it's going to be a real fun one to watch having two ranked teams with high powered offenses coming to meet each other, quite the opposite of your normal top 25 MVFC matchup.
Western Illinois comes in averaging 33.3 points per game while giving up an average of 21.3 points per game. SDSU is averaging 42.6 points per game while giving up 41.6 points per game. However, the more important stat is that SDSU is giving up an insane amount of rushing yards per game, 283.3 yards per game to be exact. Meanwhile, WIU is averaging 190 yards rushing per game, except that was against teams that appear to actually play run defense. However, WIU is giving up 317.6 yards passing per game while SDSU has averaged 290 ypg. SDSU has 12 passing TDs this season while WIU has given up 7 passing TDs. WIU has 9 rushing TDs while SDSU has given up 10 TDs on the ground. So each teams defense appears to be awful against the other offenses strength.
The possible silver lining for SDSU on the defensive side is so far they have only faced one offense that is similar to the style of most MVFC teams in Drake, but they are atrocious. An argument could be made that a big reason they got gashed so badly was due to playing what is starting to look like an extremely potent triple option team in Cal Poly along with a wildly athletic Big XII spread team in TCU, neither of which were good match ups for the Jacks. Doesn't erase the god awful performances they have had, where they gave up over 600 yards of offense and over 40 ppg against any team that offers scholarships, but it could mean that they are better than what they have shown to date. They won't be great at any point this season, but they could end up being decent. It's doubtful, but possible.
Meanwhile WIU should be fairly used to facing an offense like SDSU after facing two teams that are heavy pass teams in NAU and EIU. SDSU can run the ball better than they get credit for, they just don't do it often as teams have been trying to force them to pass. Also, WIU will have to contend with two weapons that are better than any they have faced to date in Jake Wieneke and Dallas Goedert. People can say that SDSUs offense is only throw it up to Goedert (or Not Wieneke as dubbed by IBY) or to Wieneke, but no offense has been able to stop it yet. Both have great hands and body control, and are extremely hard to bring down in the open field. One thing going for WIU is that Taryn Christion has been hobbled since the TCU game with an ankle injury. If that hasn't healed fully I can see this ending up like the Cal Poly game where TC has to come off and get re-taped up while Zach Lujan takes over for a drive. Unfortunately for WIU, Lujan is more than a normal backup.
This game is going to be similar to the Cal Poly game. WIU will have to control the clock and run the ball, and convert on long third downs to keep the drives alive while SDSU sells out on the run. I'm going to bet they look to take advantage of SDSUs young secondary with play action pass plays and their great receiving corps. SDSU does get back senior safety Nick Mears, which should help in that regard, but I see the Necks getting more than one big play off of blown coverage by young cornerbacks. This game looks almost certain to be a track meet, and if there are under 70 points scored in the game I will be absolutely shocked. That would most likely mean one teams defense figured out how to play defense and the game is a blow out. WIU will have to guard against a let down after a huge emotional FBS win against an in state FBS rival. It should help them to not have that due to playing a ranked team this week, but SDSU does have the advantage of having a bye week to get healthy and refocused. SDSU also has the revenge factor after WIU ruined their chances of a top 8 seed last year. Probably a homer pick since the Jacks tend to drop big games like this at home, but I'll take SDSU at home in a really close game that has about a dozen lead changes in it. After a huge loss to Poly two weeks ago I'm expecting a crowd of about 13-14,000. I would be tickled pink if we draw over 15,000 after a loss like that, it would be a great sign for the Jacks fanbase.
Location: Dana J Dykhouse Stadium, Brookings
Television: ESPN3 as well as the MVFC game of the week coverage
Other: Military Appreciation Day, rather fitting with the Leathernecks in town.
So I couldn't wait till noon to put the team rankings in the title, the bye week beforehand is too much for me to wait. I'm impatient. This game looks like it's going to be a real fun one to watch having two ranked teams with high powered offenses coming to meet each other, quite the opposite of your normal top 25 MVFC matchup.
Western Illinois comes in averaging 33.3 points per game while giving up an average of 21.3 points per game. SDSU is averaging 42.6 points per game while giving up 41.6 points per game. However, the more important stat is that SDSU is giving up an insane amount of rushing yards per game, 283.3 yards per game to be exact. Meanwhile, WIU is averaging 190 yards rushing per game, except that was against teams that appear to actually play run defense. However, WIU is giving up 317.6 yards passing per game while SDSU has averaged 290 ypg. SDSU has 12 passing TDs this season while WIU has given up 7 passing TDs. WIU has 9 rushing TDs while SDSU has given up 10 TDs on the ground. So each teams defense appears to be awful against the other offenses strength.
The possible silver lining for SDSU on the defensive side is so far they have only faced one offense that is similar to the style of most MVFC teams in Drake, but they are atrocious. An argument could be made that a big reason they got gashed so badly was due to playing what is starting to look like an extremely potent triple option team in Cal Poly along with a wildly athletic Big XII spread team in TCU, neither of which were good match ups for the Jacks. Doesn't erase the god awful performances they have had, where they gave up over 600 yards of offense and over 40 ppg against any team that offers scholarships, but it could mean that they are better than what they have shown to date. They won't be great at any point this season, but they could end up being decent. It's doubtful, but possible.
Meanwhile WIU should be fairly used to facing an offense like SDSU after facing two teams that are heavy pass teams in NAU and EIU. SDSU can run the ball better than they get credit for, they just don't do it often as teams have been trying to force them to pass. Also, WIU will have to contend with two weapons that are better than any they have faced to date in Jake Wieneke and Dallas Goedert. People can say that SDSUs offense is only throw it up to Goedert (or Not Wieneke as dubbed by IBY) or to Wieneke, but no offense has been able to stop it yet. Both have great hands and body control, and are extremely hard to bring down in the open field. One thing going for WIU is that Taryn Christion has been hobbled since the TCU game with an ankle injury. If that hasn't healed fully I can see this ending up like the Cal Poly game where TC has to come off and get re-taped up while Zach Lujan takes over for a drive. Unfortunately for WIU, Lujan is more than a normal backup.
This game is going to be similar to the Cal Poly game. WIU will have to control the clock and run the ball, and convert on long third downs to keep the drives alive while SDSU sells out on the run. I'm going to bet they look to take advantage of SDSUs young secondary with play action pass plays and their great receiving corps. SDSU does get back senior safety Nick Mears, which should help in that regard, but I see the Necks getting more than one big play off of blown coverage by young cornerbacks. This game looks almost certain to be a track meet, and if there are under 70 points scored in the game I will be absolutely shocked. That would most likely mean one teams defense figured out how to play defense and the game is a blow out. WIU will have to guard against a let down after a huge emotional FBS win against an in state FBS rival. It should help them to not have that due to playing a ranked team this week, but SDSU does have the advantage of having a bye week to get healthy and refocused. SDSU also has the revenge factor after WIU ruined their chances of a top 8 seed last year. Probably a homer pick since the Jacks tend to drop big games like this at home, but I'll take SDSU at home in a really close game that has about a dozen lead changes in it. After a huge loss to Poly two weeks ago I'm expecting a crowd of about 13-14,000. I would be tickled pink if we draw over 15,000 after a loss like that, it would be a great sign for the Jacks fanbase.