FCS FBS matchups week 1

[Daytripper]

I do Yahoo Sports College Pick'em and of the thirty games to pick, eight are FCS - FBS matchups.

Which upset do you think is most likely to happen?:

Michigan St. v. Furman
Baylor v. Northwestern State
Virgnia v Richmond
Oklahoma State v. SE Louisiana
Oregon v. UC Davis
Iowa State v. UNI
Washington State v. Eastern Washington
TCU v South Dakota State


I think the most likely upsets...in order, are:

UNI over Iowa State
Eastern Washington over Washington State
Richmond over Virginia
South Dakota State over TCU
Northwestern State over Baylor
SELA over Ok State
UC Davis over Oregon
Furman over Michigan St

[The Yo Show]

My take in order of likelihood:

UNI over Iowa State: I like UNI's odds. Not a guarantee, but since you're making picks, why not?

Eastern Washington over Washington State: I think the Eagles have a shot to knock off Washington State.

Richmond over Virginia: I'm not sold on this happening, but it is more likely than ones further down. I think its close even if Richmond loses.

SDSU over TCU: I don't think this is happening, but it would be awesome, and on this list is more likely than what I have below IMO.

UC Davis over Oregon: UC Davis has a shot. EWU played Oregon competitively last year. Not saying this will happen, but its probably more likely than others further down the list.

Northwestern State over Baylor: doubt it but who knows? Baylor is a question mark

Furman over Michigan State: VERY unlikely

SE Louisiana over Oklahoma State: Most unlikely

Disclaimer, even though I'm ranking in terms of likelihood, I will be happy for every FCS teams that gets the upset xthumbsupx

[Catatonic]

My take in order of likelihood:

UNI over Iowa State: I like UNI's odds. Not a guarantee, but since you're making picks, why not?

Eastern Washington over Washington State: I think the Eagles have a shot to knock off Washington State.

Richmond over Virginia: I'm not sold on this happening, but it is more likely than ones further down. I think its close even if Richmond loses.

SDSU over TCU: I don't think this is happening, but it would be awesome, and on this list is more likely than what I have below IMO.

UC Davis over Oregon: UC Davis has a shot. EWU played Oregon competitively last year. Not saying this will happen, but its probably more likely than others further down the list.

Northwestern State over Baylor: doubt it but who knows? Baylor is a question mark

Furman over Michigan State: VERY unlikely

SE Louisiana over Oklahoma State: Most unlikely

Disclaimer, even though I'm ranking in terms of likelihood, I will be happy for every FCS teams that gets the upset xthumbsupx

I'd rank this one as most unlikely. Baylor looks to take out all it's frustrations on Northwestern State. For all it's difficulties, Baylor still has its coaching staff in tact (other than head coach), and returns a bunch of talent. Bears destroy the Demons. Next year will be the year Baylor drops off significantly...the coaching staff will be gone and Baylor will start to feel the effect of all those recruits who bailed as the crisis unfolded.

[Thumper 76]

UNI over Iowa State: UNI is good, better than they were in previous games where they should have beaten the Cyclones. I think they win by 7.

Richmond over Virginia: Richmond is a good team and Virginia is a big name but not good enough to be scary.

Eastern Washington over Washington State: I doubt WSU over looks them, but if EWUs new O Line proves itself, they have the weapons to keep pace in a shoot out.

South Dakota State over TCU: Not likely, but SDSU is better than the rest of the teams playing FBS listed after them this week and has proven they can scare the hell out of highly ranked FBS teams, like when they were in the game start to finish against #6 Nebraska.

Northwestern State over Baylor: Prolly not, but with the turmoil at Baylor it makes it have a better chance than the other three.

Furman over Michigan St: Michigan State is just too good and I can't see them overlooking Furman enough to lose.

SELA over Ok State: Doubtful. Really really doubtful.

UC Davis over Oregon: If Davis keeps them under 60 I'll be surprised.

[smilo]

EWU is not coming close to Wazzu. That's a legit team and EWU is a very bubbly team for the FCS playoffs. That's gotta be #4.

Not that SD State is beating TCU either after barely beating Kansas with perhaps a slightly better team, but at least I'd say they are in the upper echelon of the best division.

UNI and Richmond would make me very happy, but if we got one of those two, it'd be a half-decent year.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Why does it seem like UNI manages to lose to either Iowa or Iowa State by the slimmest of margins every year? Always seems like it's a late missed FG, a late FG by opponent or one play that makes the difference in the game. Definitely rooting for them to smack the Cyclones.

If Richmond is as good as everyone is projecting (a handful of first-place votes I believe), they have a very legit shot to beat the Cavs.

[Thumper 76]

Not that SD State is beating TCU either after almost choking away a 31-7 lead by letting off the gas at Kansas with a better team than Kansas, but at least I'd say they are in the upper echelon of the best division.


FIFY

[smilo]

FIFY

haha, a little true, but a football game is 60 minutes. There are a) depth issues and b) the need to run out the clock, not necessarily for respect, but just to seal the deal. The final score was close for a reason. Was certainly proud of y'all for pulling it off, but we have to be realistic. I'd love it even more this year, so I hope that 'realistic' expectation puts me to shame.

[Thumper 76]

haha, a little true, but a football game is 60 minutes. There are a) depth issues and b) the need to run out the clock, not necessarily for respect, but just to seal the deal. The final score was close for a reason. Was certainly proud of y'all for pulling it off, but we have to be realistic. I'd love it even more this year, so I hope that 'realistic' expectation puts me to shame.

I totally agree. TCU will win. If SDSU pulls the upset, Saturday night of a three day weekend? My liver doesn't have the proper training at this point in my life for the celebration. xlolx

[UNIFanSince1983]

South Dakota State over TCU: Not likely, but SDSU is better than the rest of the teams playing FBS listed after them this week and has proven they can scare the hell out of highly ranked FBS teams, like when they were in the game start to finish against #6 Nebraska.


I know the site is called Any Given Saturday, but people are projecting TCU to make the playoff. I have a hard time seeing SDSU come close.

[clenz]

I don't expect the Jacks to really be all that close to TCU, but there is a 99.693% chance this game is entertaining to watch.

[Thumper 76]

I know the site is called Any Given Saturday, but people are projecting TCU to make the playoff. I have a hard time seeing SDSU come close.

I shouldn't have had the over in there. I was just ranking them according to probability of them happening. There is almost no way SDSU is within two touchdowns after the 3rd quarter, let alone win. Only one I see happening on the list is the UNI game.

However, my one spot of hope is the fact that Kansas has somehow managed to give TCU trouble over the last couple seasons. Not sure how, but those games have been a lot closer than you would think. It's not much of a hope, but it exists :D

[Grizalltheway]

UC Davis has zero chance at Autzen. Less than zero. Like absolute zero.

[melloware13]

Ones off the board I'd take the FCS (or give <35% odds to) are Montana State (at Idaho), Eastern Kentucky (at Purdue), Southern Illinois (at Florida Atlantic). On the other side of the spectrum, I'd put the house on Oregon and Georgia Southern

[Schism55]

Why does it seem like UNI manages to lose to either Iowa or Iowa State by the slimmest of margins every year? Always seems like it's a late missed FG, a late FG by opponent or one play that makes the difference in the game. Definitely rooting for them to smack the Cyclones.

If Richmond is as good as everyone is projecting (a handful of first-place votes I believe), they have a very legit shot to beat the Cavs.
Not last year, Iowa St. took UNI behind the wood shed.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I think Richmond has a legit shot against UVA. UNI will be in it to win it against ISU but can they actually close the deal? My guess is....

I don't see the others being that close....

[bonarae]

More than likely blowouts will happen for all of those games. One or two will be close.

[Houndawg]

Why does it seem like UNI manages to lose to either Iowa or Iowa State by the slimmest of margins every year? Always seems like it's a late missed FG, a late FG by opponent or one play that makes the difference in the game. Definitely rooting for them to smack the Cyclones.

If Richmond is as good as everyone is projecting (a handful of first-place votes I believe), they have a very legit shot to beat the Cavs.


Tradition.

One time they had two chances to kick the winning FG against Iowa State and were blocked both times. I think that deep down they expect to lose in big games.

[dewey]

Tradition.

One time they had two chances to kick the winning FG against Iowa State and were blocked both times. I think that deep down they expect to lose in big games.

In 2009 UNI had 2 straight field goal attempts blocked at Iowa and lost 17-16. Iowa went on to win the Orange Bowl that season.

Dewey

[Smitty]

Noticed WCU vs East Carolina was not on the list. If there was a year to beat them it would be this year due to a new coach and losing a few players. Unfortunately we are also breaking in a new QB so....

[clenz]

Not last year, Iowa St. took UNI behind the wood shed.
It was 10-7 at half

UNI's punter decided to hand...or foot...the game to ISU.

Sure, he averaged 43.3 yards in the air but he had no touch, no hang time and couldn't angle to coverage at all. ISU averaged 24.1 yards per return (193 yards). Because of that ISU's average starting field position was the UNI 49 yard line I believe. Iowa State started in UNI territory 8 times that game.

The three drives they scored offensive touchdowns on were 38 yards, 43 yards and 23 yards. All off of punt returns.

UNI got their ass handed to them last year because they weren't prepared with a true game plan and Iowa State took advantage of it.

UNI still had more first downs, 50 more yards rushing (gave up 2.4 ypc), had just 8 fewer total yards despite rolling out 3 different QBs and 13 running backs, and going 3 of 16 on 3rd down.

Over the last decade UNI is 2-4 against Iowa State with two of those losses being by 1 (a 56 yard field goal going just wide as time ran out and a TD catch with about 20 seconds left that I'm still not sure the WR was actually in bounds by more than a quarter inch.

2010 was 27-0 and 14 of those were pick 6s and UNI outgained Iowa State by about 108 yards...just decided to throw passes to Iowa State once in the red sonze


Yes, it's like a damn curse. 4 points away from being 4-2 against ISU over the last decade.

I think it happens this year. ISU had 5 OL that have never started a college game. A new coach, a new system, everything. For the first time since 08 UNI actually has a settled QB position and offensive identity.

[Bam]

Not mentioned. Maty Mauk led EKU wins at Purdue!

[JSUSoutherner]

Not mentioned. Maty Mauk led EKU wins at Purdue!
Isn't Bennie Coney starting? He's listed at the top of EKU's chart.

[Bam]

Isn't Bennie Coney starting? He's listed at the top of EKU's chart.

Coney will start, but after Mauk shows out to bring the Colonels back to victory, Mr. Coney will be 2nd on the depth chart.

[kdinva]

you missed W&M @ N C State.........Tribe has a great shot of winning, or staying w/in 7 points....



I do Yahoo Sports College Pick'em and of the thirty games to pick, eight are FCS - FBS matchups.

Which upset do you think is most likely to happen?:

Michigan St. v. Furman
Baylor v. Northwestern State
Virgnia v Richmond
Oklahoma State v. SE Louisiana
Oregon v. UC Davis
Iowa State v. UNI
Washington State v. Eastern Washington
TCU v South Dakota State


I think the most likely upsets...in order, are:

UNI over Iowa State
Eastern Washington over Washington State
Richmond over Virginia
South Dakota State over TCU
Northwestern State over Baylor
SELA over Ok State
UC Davis over Oregon
Furman over Michigan St

[Sandlapper Spike]

I also think that William and Mary-NC State game could be interesting. My pick for top upset potential, though, is EKU-Purdue.

[Lehigh'98]

In the Patriot League, Colgate @ Syracuse and Fordham @ Navy. Very slim chance in both cases, but we will see.

[neverobeyed]

It was 10-7 at half

UNI's punter decided to hand...or foot...the game to ISU.

Sure, he averaged 43.3 yards in the air but he had no touch, no hang time and couldn't angle to coverage at all. ISU averaged 24.1 yards per return (193 yards). Because of that ISU's average starting field position was the UNI 49 yard line I believe. Iowa State started in UNI territory 8 times that game.

The three drives they scored offensive touchdowns on were 38 yards, 43 yards and 23 yards. All off of punt returns.

UNI got their ass handed to them last year because they weren't prepared with a true game plan and Iowa State took advantage of it.

UNI still had more first downs, 50 more yards rushing (gave up 2.4 ypc), had just 8 fewer total yards despite rolling out 3 different QBs and 13 running backs, and going 3 of 16 on 3rd down.

Over the last decade UNI is 2-4 against Iowa State with two of those losses being by 1 (a 56 yard field goal going just wide as time ran out and a TD catch with about 20 seconds left that I'm still not sure the WR was actually in bounds by more than a quarter inch.

2010 was 27-0 and 14 of those were pick 6s and UNI outgained Iowa State by about 108 yards...just decided to throw passes to Iowa State once in the red sonze


Yes, it's like a damn curse. 4 points away from being 4-2 against ISU over the last decade.

I think it happens this year. ISU had 5 OL that have never started a college game. A new coach, a new system, everything. For the first time since 08 UNI actually has a settled QB position and offensive identity.

It was nice going into August with a QB named for once. Last year, it was a huge ... HUUUUUGE ... cluster regarding the QB situation, new offensive coordinator, new offense ... hang on, nevermind, change the offense.

[Matt]

Love that so many are giving as a chance against UVA (who are bad). I think we keep it close, anyhow.

I think W&M beats NC State, and I'm not even sure that's an upset. Same for EW-WSU.

[UNIFanSince1983]

It was nice going into August with a QB named for once. Last year, it was a huge ... HUUUUUGE ... cluster regarding the QB situation, new offensive coordinator, new offense ... hang on, nevermind, change the offense.

Yup last year at Iowa State no one knew who the QB would be until the first huddle.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Love that so many are giving as a chance against UVA (who are bad). I think we keep it close, anyhow.

I think W&M beats NC State, and I'm not even sure that's an upset. Same for EW-WSU.

Washington State should be pretty damn good this year. I don't see EWU beating them or really coming close. That would be a rather large upset if it happened.

[Matt]

Washington State should be pretty damn good this year. I don't see EWU beating them or really coming close. That would be a rather large upset if it happened.

I mean, would a blowout in any of these games be truly surprising? I think EWU can score a lot of points against anyone on their sched. I'll trust you on Wazzou's talent this year.

[Matt]

Washington State should be pretty damn good this year. I don't see EWU beating them or really coming close. That would be a rather large upset if it happened.

Like I said

[Red & Black]

Washington State should be pretty damn good this year. I don't see EWU beating them or really coming close. That would be a rather large upset if it happened.

And that's why I like college football. This was an EWU team with a QB making his first college start, playing behind an offensive line that replaced all 5 starters and the top two backups. I knew we'd be able to move the ball, but I was surprised with the defense's ability to get a few key stops here and there.

[Thumper 76]

Like I said

What do you expect from the guy who openly roots for FBS teams to beat the FCS teams here.

[dewey]

What do you expect from the guy who openly roots for FBS teams to beat the FCS teams here.

There is one team I hope loses to every team regardless of division :D

Dewey

[Matt]

What do you expect from the guy who openly roots for FBS teams to beat the FCS teams here.
Lol