Playoff Rankings by Conference

[FUBeAR]

After Round 1...

1. Southern (2/2) (Chatt (AQ) (W), CIT (W)) 2-0 1.000
2. Southland (2/2) (McNeese (AQ) (B), SHSU (W)) 1-0 1.000
3. Missouri Valley (5/4) (ILL St (AQ) (B), NDSU (B), UNI (W), SDSU (L), WIU (W)) 2-1 .667
4. Colonial Athletic Association (4/3) (Richmond (AQ) (B), JMU (B), W&M (W), UNH (L)) 1-1 .500
5. Big Sky (3/2) (SUU (AQ) (L), Portland St (B), Montana (W)) 1-1 .500
6. Patriot League (2/1) (Colgate (AQ) (W), Fordham (L)) 1-1 .500
7. Big South (2/1) (CSU (AQ) (B), CCU (L)) 0-1 .000
7. Ohio Valley (2/1) (JSU (AQ), EIU (L)) 0-1 .000
9. Northeast (1/0) (Duquesne (AQ) (L)) 0-1 .000
9. Pioneer League (1/0) (Dayton (AQ (L)) 0-1 .000

[Toby]

After Round 1...

1. Southern (2/2) (Chatt (AQ) (W), CIT (W)) 2-0 1.000
2. Southland (2/2) (McNeese (AQ) (B), SHSU (W)) 1-0 1.000
3. Missouri Valley (5/4) (ILL St (AQ) (B), NDSU (B), UNI (W), SDSU (L), WIU (W)) 2-1 .667
4. Colonial Athletic Association (4/3) (Richmond (AQ) (B), JMU (B), W&M (W), UNH (L)) 1-1 .500
5. Big Sky (3/2) (SUU (AQ) (L), Portland St (B), Montana (W)) 1-1 .500
6. Patriot League (2/1) (Colgate (AQ) (W), Fordham (L)) 1-1 .500
7. Big South (2/1) (CSU (AQ) (B), CCU (L)) 0-1 .000
7. Ohio Valley (2/1) (JSU (AQ), EIU (L)) 0-1 .000
9. Northeast (1/0) (Duquesne (AQ) (L)) 0-1 .000
9. Pioneer League (1/0) (Dayton (AQ (L)) 0-1 .000

So perhaps the SoCon should have had 3 teams in with WCU?

[mvemjsunpx]

So perhaps the SoCon should have had 3 teams in with WCU?

No.

[smallcollegefbfan]

So perhaps the SoCon should have had 3 teams in with WCU?

WCU would have beaten Dayton for sure but that's about it. There are others I think would be a close game. I was disappointed in them. I expected them to go 8-3 this year and take the next step to become a yearly top 2 team in the SoCon. They lose a good bit of talent!

[Mocs123]

If both SoCon teams win this weekend, I think we can say that we should have gotten 3 teams in. WCU didn't have a great resume, though. They played 2 FBS games against SEC schools which doesn't hurt them but it does give them less opportunity to show anyone what they can do against a good FCS team. They played only 1 OOC FBS opponent, Presbyterian from the Big South, so the committee didn't have a large body of work to look at other than SoCon play. I hope we are not in that position next year, with ETSU joining we play one FBS (Alabama) and play one non D1 (I am not sure why) This is our first "scheduled" non D1 since 2009 (we have played 2 non D1's since 2009 but they were due to last minute bail outs by D1 FCS schools.).

WCU does lose a lot of talent, but they still have Newsome, who is a heck of a back.

[FUBeAR]

WCU would have beaten Dayton for sure but that's about it. There are others I think would be a close game. I was disappointed in them. I expected them to go 8-3 this year and take the next step to become a yearly top 2 team in the SoCon. They lose a good bit of talent!

Certainly not the "be all & end all," but, at this point in the season, Mr. Massey does have a good bit of data driving his predictions.
So, using "Massey Matchup" projects...WCU would beat 8 teams in the Playoff field; half of those by 2 or more scores; would beat 1 team which won a 1st round game; and would beat 1 team which rec'd a 1st round bye...FWIW

WCU over Dayton by 19 points - 33-14
WCU over New Hampshire by 10 points - 31-21
WCU over Duquesne by 9 points - 35-26
WCU over Colgate by 9 points - 30-21
WCU over Eastern Illinois by 7 points - 31-24
WCU over Fordham by 4 points - 39-35
WCU over Richmond by 3 points - 31-28
WCU over Coastal Carolina by 1 point - 31-30

....and FWIW...

Samford over Dayton by 17 points - 34-17
Samford over New Hampshire by 8 points - 35-27
Samford over Duquesne by 7 points - 35-28
Samford over Colgate by by 7 points - 31-24
Samford over Eastern Illinois by 5 points - 32-27
Samford over Fordham by 3 points - 41-38
Samford over Richmond by 2 points - 35-33
Wofford over Dayton by 14 points - 28-14
Wofford over New Hampshire by 7 points 28-21
Wofford over Duquesne by 6 points - 30-24
Wofford over Colgate by 6 points - 27-21
Wofford over Eastern Illinois by 3 points - 27-24
Wofford over Fordham by 2 points - 37-35
Mercer over Dayton by 8 points - 21-13
Mercer over New Hampshire by 3 points - 24-21
Mercer over Duquesne by 2 points - 28-26
Mercer over Colgate by 1 points - 24-23
Furman over Dayton by 7 points - 21-14
Furman over New Hampshire by 1 point - 21-20
VMI over Dayton by 3 points - 27-24

[CID1990]

I used to think that the way to take a bite out of the Midwest/CAA bias was to win playoff games. That still holds true, but a couple of very suspicious at large bids makes me wonder if regionalization alone doesn't favor the CAA and MVFC just a little.

Time will tell. There is more parity now than there was two years ago. We need to win 3-4 more playoff games this year to turn the committee heads.

[Winindy]

I used to think that the way to take a bite out of the Midwest/CAA bias was to win playoff games. That still holds true, but a couple of very suspicious at large bids makes me wonder if regionalization alone doesn't favor the CAA and MVFC just a little.

Time will tell. There is more parity now than there was two years ago. We need to win 3-4 more playoff games this year to turn the committee heads.

I think making a good showing in the playoffs is a first step. I think the second step is to hop on a plane instead of a bus and play home and home games with the CAA/BS/MVFC. Playing two money games with the FBS is great for the budget and probably makes it easier on the fund raising, but it doesn't move the conference forward.

[walliver]

WCU scheduled themselves out of the playoffs. The Cats only had 1 D-I win against an opponent with a winning record, and that was 6-5 Samford. That's a hard detail to overcome on selection Sunday.
Samford, Wofford and Furman played themselves out of the playoffs.
The real weakness the SoCon has had this year is failing to win OOC. Chatty has struggled against the OVC. The SC schools have struggled against the Big South. If we win our OOC FCS games, we will get three teams in again.

The worst part is that we used to routinely get 3 teams into a 16 team field. Now, with 24 teams and the MEAC out, we only get two.:( Winning, however, will fix a lot of things.

[Mocs123]

The SoCon stands at 14-6 on the year in FCS OOC games.

We are 4-2 against the Big South with the two losses to CCU and CSU.

We are 2-2 against the OVC with a loss to JSU and TTU.

We are 0-1 against the CAA with VMI losing to Richmond.

We are 1-0 against the Southland.

We are 2-0 against the MEAC.

We are 1-1 against the Patriot a League with VMI losing to Bucknell.

We are 3-0 against the Pioneer League.

We are 1-0 against FCS Independents.



The real kicker is that we were only 2-4 vs playoff teams.

We were 2-7 vs FBS Teams.

If Mercer had beaten TTU and VMI had beaten Bucknell it would eliminate the "bad" losses, then if we could have beaten JSU, CCU, or CSU it would have looked better.

[FUBeAR]

The SoCon stands at 14-6 on the year in FCS OOC games.

We are 4-2 against the Big South with the two losses to CCU and CSU.
- 2 close losses to the Top 2 teams in the Big South, one of those by a team that finished well down in the SoCon standings

We are 2-2 against the OVC with a loss to JSU and TTU.
- 1 loss to the #1 Team in the Country that was within a shanked punt of beating an SEC traditional power and the other by a 2nd year program playing with less than full scholarships (who also got some nasty home-cooking served to them by the OVC Officiating Crew - 2 obvious PI's in the end zone not called, for example)

We are 0-1 against the CAA with VMI losing to Richmond.
- The last place team in the SoCon losing to the CAA's AQ Team

We are 1-0 against the Southland.

We are 2-0 against the MEAC.

We are 1-1 against the Patriot a League with VMI losing to Bucknell.
- Last place team in the SoCon lost in OT

We are 3-0 against the Pioneer League.

We are 1-0 against FCS Independents.



The real kicker is that we were only 2-4 vs playoff teams.

We were 2-7 vs FBS Teams.

If Mercer had beaten TTU and VMI had beaten Bucknell it would eliminate the "bad" losses, then if we could have beaten JSU, CCU, or CSU it would have looked better.

Thank you for doing this! I was going to do it, but I am trying to close a 'deal' on my real job this morning...and occasionally, I have to get my priorities out of whack and not focus on Football....I've added some 'color' above to your data...

[Winindy]

0-0 vs. the Big Sky

0-0 vs. MVFC

0-0 vs. CAA

Wasn't the idea that that's who the SoCon wants to stand shoulder to shoulder with again? You can eliminate bias by playing them and competing. You invite bias by not competing. If the goal is to be better the the Patriot League, MEAC, and the Pioneer, then the ADs of the SoCon are doing well.

[Mocs123]

While I don't disagree Winindy, the fact remains that we are often limited to bus trips and don't have the budgets to fly out to play a MVFC or Big Sky team. We play OOC Schools that we are able to bus to which for us often is the OVC and Big South.

VMI is close to CAA territory and there are a couple of CAA schools we could bus to, but not many.

I don't see a lot of Big Sky schools jumping on planes to play CAA teams either. At our level and budgets regional OOC games are the norm.

The thing is too with the regionalization of the playoffs those type of match ups don't happen often. We did play a PL team that is way out of our footprint but JSU's side of the bracket is 2 SoCon teams, 2 Big South teams, one OVC team, and one Patriot League team. Hardly a chance to impress out of our footprint.

[Engineer86]

Certainly not the "be all & end all," but, at this point in the season, Mr. Massey does have a good bit of data driving his predictions.
So, using "Massey Matchup" projects...WCU would beat 8 teams in the Playoff field; half of those by 2 or more scores; would beat 1 team which won a 1st round game; and would beat 1 team which rec'd a 1st round bye...FWIW

WCU over Dayton by 19 points - 33-14
WCU over New Hampshire by 10 points - 31-21
WCU over Duquesne by 9 points - 35-26
WCU over Colgate by 9 points - 30-21
WCU over Eastern Illinois by 7 points - 31-24
WCU over Fordham by 4 points - 39-35
WCU over Richmond by 3 points - 31-28
WCU over Coastal Carolina by 1 point - 31-30

....and FWIW...

Samford over Dayton by 17 points - 34-17
Samford over New Hampshire by 8 points - 35-27
Samford over Duquesne by 7 points - 35-28
Samford over Colgate by by 7 points - 31-24
Samford over Eastern Illinois by 5 points - 32-27
Samford over Fordham by 3 points - 41-38
Samford over Richmond by 2 points - 35-33
Wofford over Dayton by 14 points - 28-14
Wofford over New Hampshire by 7 points 28-21
Wofford over Duquesne by 6 points - 30-24
Wofford over Colgate by 6 points - 27-21
Wofford over Eastern Illinois by 3 points - 27-24
Wofford over Fordham by 2 points - 37-35
Mercer over Dayton by 8 points - 21-13
Mercer over New Hampshire by 3 points - 24-21
Mercer over Duquesne by 2 points - 28-26
Mercer over Colgate by 1 points - 24-23
Furman over Dayton by 7 points - 21-14
Furman over New Hampshire by 1 point - 21-20
VMI over Dayton by 3 points - 27-24

xlmaox xlmaox xlmaox

[ElCid]

0-0 vs. the Big Sky

0-0 vs. MVFC

0-0 vs. CAA

Wasn't the idea that that's who the SoCon wants to stand shoulder to shoulder with again? You can eliminate bias by playing them and competing. You invite bias by not competing. If the goal is to be better the the Patriot League, MEAC, and the Pioneer, then the ADs of the SoCon are doing well.

For the SOCON, besides the Big South, I would think that each school could play any of the following teams on a fairly restricted budget. I tried to use about 9 hours max driving time. I think the school in the worst situation is actually The Citadel in regard to distances. Everyone else is either further west or north than Charleston. I only looked at CAA, PFL, IVY, OVC, MVFC and Southland. Big Sky is obviously not even a possibility without flying and the others, well, are just not worth it for SOS. And just for kicks and giggles, I checked the worst trip for the SOCON. Charleston to Lexington is 6:30. Macon to Lexington is 8 Hrs. Birmingham to Lexington is 8:25. Really the only road trip MVFC that are realistic are S Illinois, Indiana St, Illinois St, W Illinois, Missouri St, and Youngstown St for various SOCON schools.

The Citadel: 8 possible teams
Jacksonville St. - OVC
Tenn Tech - OVC
Eastern Kentucky - OVC
Tenn St (at the extreme west) - OVC
James Madison (at the extreme north) - CAA
Richmond - CAA
William and Mary - CAA
Elon - CAA

WCU, Wofford and Furman are all pretty close (relatively speaking) and these are all possible. WCU might be closer than the others to some, but it is getting out of those mountains that can be hard: 14 possible teams
Jacksonville St - OVC
Tenn Tech - OVC
Eastern Kentucky - OVC
Tenn St - OVC
Austin Peay - OVC
Tenn-Martin - OVC
Murray St - OVC
SEMO - OVC (extreme west)
S Illinois - MVFC
James Madison - CAA
Richmond - CAA
William and Mary - CAA
Elon - CAA
Towson (at the extreme north) - CAA

ETSU is a little north and might add these: 20 possible teams
Jacksonville St - OVC
Tenn Tech - OVC
Eastern Kentucky - OVC
Tenn St - OVC
Austin Peay - OVC
Tenn-Martin - OVC
Murray St - OVC
E Illinois - OVC
SEMO - OVC (extreme west)
S Illinois - MVFC
Indiana St - MVFC
Youngstown St - MVFC (extreme North)
Penn - IVY
James Madison - CAA
Richmond (they did) - CAA
William and Mary - CAA
Elon - CAA
Towson - CAA
Villanova - CAA
Delaware - CAA
Georgetown - PFL

Mercer is a bit further out and might add: 13
Richmond - CAA
William and Mary - CAA
Elon - CAA
Jacksonville St - OVC
Tenn Tech (they did)- OVC
Eastern Kentucky - OVC
Tenn St - OVC
Austin Peay (they did) - OVC
Tenn-Martin - OVC
Murray St - OVC
SEMO - OVC
SELA - Southland
S Illinois - MVFC

Samford is even a bit further out and might add some to the west: 18 possible teams
Elon - CAA
Jacksonville St - OVC
Tenn Tech - OVC
Eastern Kentucky - OVC
Tenn St - OVC
Austin Peay - OVC
Tenn-Martin - OVC
Murray St - OVC
SEMO - OVC
Missouri St - MVFC
S Illinois - MVFC
C Arkansas (they did) - Southland
SELA - Southland
NW State- Southland
Nicholls St- Southland
McNeese - Southland
Lamar - Southland
SFA (extreme west) - Southland
Maybe SHSU

UTC might go a bit further NW: 18 possible teams
James Madison - CAA
Richmond (they did) - CAA
William and Mary - CAA
Jacksonville St (they do) - OVC
Tenn Tech - OVC
Eastern Kentucky - OVC
Tenn St - OVC
Austin Peay - OVC
Tenn-Martin - OVC
Murray St - OVC
SEMO - OVC
E Illinois - OVC
C Arkansas - Southland (extreme west)
SELA - Southland (extreme south)
S Illinois - MVFC
Indiana St - MVFC
Illinois St - MVFC
W Illinois - MVFC

VMI is an outlier in the north, like Samford in the west, but they get to choose many that the others can't: 24 possible teams
James Madison - CAA
Richmond (they did) - CAA
William and Mary - CAA
Elon - CAA
Towson - CAA
Villanova - CAA
Delaware - CAA
Stoney Brook - CAA
Georgetown - PFL
Bucknell (they did) - PFL
Lafayette - PFL
Lehigh - PFL
Fordham - PFL
Colgate - PFL
Cornell - IVY
Penn - IVY
Princeton - IVY
Columbia - IVY
Tenn Tech - OVC
Tenn St - OVC
Austin Peay - OVC
Eastern Kentucky - OVC
Indiana St - MVFC
Youngstown St - MVFC

[Mocs123]

I would be happy with a home and home with any of those schools. Some of these schools we play fairly regularly

UTC might go a bit further NW: 18 possible teams
James Madison - CAA
Richmond (they did) - CAA
William and Mary - CAA
Jacksonville St (they do) - OVC - We play them in 2017 and 2019
Tenn Tech - OVC - We have played them a few times in the past few years
Eastern Kentucky - OVC - We played them in 2012 and 2013?
Tenn St - OVC - TN State wont play a home and home
Austin Peay - OVC - We played them last year and play them again next year
Tenn-Martin - OVC We play TN Martin next year
Murray St - OVC
SEMO - OVC
E Illinois - OVC
C Arkansas - Southland (extreme west)
SELA - Southland (extreme south)
S Illinois - MVFC
Indiana St - MVFC - We did play in the playoffs last year
Illinois St - MVFC
W Illinois - MVFC

[chattanoogamocs]

Chatty has struggled against the OVC.

I completely agree with the overall tenor of the discussion...the SoCon needs more quality OOC wins (especially with ETSU joining the conference and killing everyone SOS for a few years)

But since Huesman took over at UTC, I am not sure "struggled against the OVC" is the right phrase, they have really only struggled against JSU (but so has Auburn and Ole Miss ;) ).

UTC is 5-1 in the OVC against all teams not named Jacksonville State

(Unfortunately, they are 1-4 vs JSU and the 4 losses are by a soul crushing total of 13 points...and JSU was nationally ranked in every one of those games)

2015 #7 JSU L 20-23
2014 #9 JSU L 23-26 OT
2014 at APSU W 42-6
2014 at TTU W 38-17
2013 UTM L 21-31
2013 APSU W 42-10
2012 at #24 JSU L 24-27
2011 #10 JSU W 38-17
2011 at EKU W 23-14
2010 at #5 JSU L 17-21
2010 EKU W 42-24

[Stonewall D]

That is a very strong OOC schedule vs. the OVC. As a richmond fan, i would enjoy a match up against UTC or Furman or Wofford. Huesman is a very good coach. Btw, Didn't he come from Richmond?

[chattanoogamocs]

That is a very strong OOC schedule vs. the OVC. As a richmond fan, i would enjoy a match up against UTC or Furman or Wofford. Huesman is a very good coach. Btw, Didn't he come from Richmond?

Yes, he was the DC at Richmond when they won it all in 2008...at Finley Stadium in Chattanooga...they announced him as the head coach the next morning on the same field.

[FUBeAR]

the 4 losses are by a soul crushing total of 13 points

OH Man...as 'they' say, I'm feelin' ya there bro...




Wofford *

L, 34-33 -1
Final - OT




at Western Carolina *

L, 24-21 -3
Final












VMI *

L, 28-21 -7
Final




at The Citadel *

L, 21-19 -2
Final


__________________________________________________ ______________ -13 _________________________

[chattanoogamocs]

OH Man...as 'they' say, I'm feelin' ya there bro...




Wofford *

L, 34-33 -1
Final - OT




at Western Carolina *

L, 24-21 -3
Final












VMI *

L, 28-21 -7
Final




at The Citadel *

L, 21-19 -2
Final


__________________________________________________ ______________ -13 _________________________

LOL...I see your 2015 and raise you our 2011

at #3 Appalachian State L 12-14 (-2)
The Citadel L 27-28 (-1)
at #1 Georgia Southern L 27-28 (-1)

Furman L 7-14 (-7)
#12 Wofford L 27-28 (-1)

3 national ranked teams, 5 conference losses, only other loss that season was to Nebraska.

12 points difference between 5-6 (2-5) and 10-1 (7-0).

Considering their 5 wins included a quality win at EKU, a 21 point win over #10 JSU and beating Furman, Samford and Elon by a combined 117-34, you could argue that the Mocs were 12 points shy from being the #1 team in the country going into the playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

LOL...I see your 2015 and raise you our 2011

at #3 Appalachian State L 12-14 (-2)
The Citadel L 27-28 (-1)
at #1 Georgia Southern L 27-28 (-1)

Furman L 7-14 (-7)
#12 Wofford L 27-28 (-1)

3 national ranked teams, 5 conference losses, only other loss that season was to Nebraska.

12 points difference between 5-6 (2-5) and 10-1 (7-0).

Considering their 5 wins included a quality win at EKU, a 21 point win over #10 JSU and beating Furman, Samford and Elon by a combined 117-34, you could argue that the Mocs were 12 points shy from being the #1 team in the country going into the playoffs.

Well...I could throw out the -7 heavily-zebra-aided loss to TTU and talk about heading into the Sammy game 10-0...but instead...

http://www.leonardpierce.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/whiteflag.jpg

I surrender...you win...but only by 1...fittingly, dangit!

[clenz]

While I don't disagree Winindy, the fact remains that we are often limited to bus trips and don't have the budgets to fly out to play a MVFC or Big Sky team. We play OOC Schools that we are able to bus to which for us often is the OVC and Big South.

VMI is close to CAA territory and there are a couple of CAA schools we could bus to, but not many.

I don't see a lot of Big Sky schools jumping on planes to play CAA teams either. At our level and budgets regional OOC games are the norm.

The thing is too with the regionalization of the playoffs those type of match ups don't happen often. We did play a PL team that is way out of our footprint but JSU's side of the bracket is 2 SoCon teams, 2 Big South teams, one OVC team, and one Patriot League team. Hardly a chance to impress out of our footprint.
What's that we tell the MEAC, PFL, NEC, etc...? Either man up and commit to the costs or drop out of D1?

Well, SoCon, it's time for you to hear the same. Man the **** up and grow some balls to travel outside of a 9 hour driving radius (WHAT THE ****? YOU'LL DRIVE A TEAM 9 HOURS ON A ****ING BUS FOR A GAME?). It's not that UNI, SIU, EWU, Cal Poly, etc... have that much larger budgets, it's that we don't have a damn choice so we make it work. Want to know how we make it work? Home and homes. Get a nice h/h rotation going with a couple schools and it fills your home schedule with name opponents that will put asses in the seats, give you a quality win to use come play off time (so you can show us MVFC fans that we aren't that good...money where the mouth is, so to speak) for the selection committee.

UNI sure as hell doesn't have the budget to fly the team to Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Montana, Stephen F Austin, Southern Utah, etc... just for the hell of it. We worked every single one of those into H/H series on alternating years to fill out schedules with good road games to build a resume on, and fill home games with great games. UNI was @ Cal Poly and vs EWU this year. Next year UNI is @ EWU and home vs Montana. The year after that we are @ Montana and vs Cal Poly. See how that works?

Now, I do believe UNI flies the football team to NDSU (7 hours), SIU (8 hours), YSU (12 hours), ISUb (10 hours), MSU (8 hours), ISUr (4.5 hours). I'm not sure on USD/SDSU (both about 5 hours) for flights. WIU is the only drive, because it's only 3 hours. I couldn't imagine busing to a game that far away. Hell, that's what D2 and D3s do.

It's amazing how easily you could talk a MVFC, and Big Sky program into a H/H with someone other than another MVFC/Big Sky match up if you'd be willing to come out here.

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry, off my soap box now

[citdog]

What's that we tell the MEAC, PFL, NEC, etc...? Either man up and commit to the costs or drop out of D1?

Well, SoCon, it's time for you to hear the same. Man the **** up and grow some balls to travel outside of a 9 hour driving radius (WHAT THE ****? YOU'LL DRIVE A TEAM 9 HOURS ON A ****ING BUS FOR A GAME?). It's not that UNI, SIU, EWU, Cal Poly, etc... have that much larger budgets, it's that we don't have a damn choice so we make it work. Want to know how we make it work? Home and homes. Get a nice h/h rotation going with a couple schools and it fills your home schedule with name opponents that will put asses in the seats, give you a quality win to use come play off time (so you can show us MVFC fans that we aren't that good...money where the mouth is, so to speak) for the selection committee.

UNI sure as hell doesn't have the budget to fly the team to Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Montana, Stephen F Austin, Southern Utah, etc... just for the hell of it. We worked every single one of those into H/H series on alternating years to fill out schedules with good road games to build a resume on, and fill home games with great games. UNI was @ Cal Poly and vs EWU this year. Next year UNI is @ EWU and home vs Montana. The year after that we are @ Montana and vs Cal Poly. See how that works?

Now, I do believe UNI flies the football team to NDSU (7 hours), SIU (8 hours), YSU (12 hours), ISUb (10 hours), MSU (8 hours), ISUr (4.5 hours). I'm not sure on USD/SDSU (both about 5 hours) for flights. WIU is the only drive, because it's only 3 hours. I couldn't imagine busing to a game that far away. Hell, that's what D2 and D3s do.

It's amazing how easily you could talk a MVFC, and Big Sky program into a H/H with someone other than another MVFC/Big Sky match up if you'd be willing to come out here.

- - - Updated - - -

Sorry, off my soap box now


No thanks. Not losing more money. We need HOME games that require no return.

Would you like for me to tell you where to stick that soap box? Or do you need a radial diagram??

[MTfan4life]

If both SoCon teams win this weekend, I think we can say that we should have gotten 3 teams in.

So perhaps the SoCon should have had 3 teams in with WCU?

Every year. Same dumb argument.

Let's say Cit and Chat were both on opposite sides of the bracket and they both rolled their way to the title. It still doesn't mean Western Carolina deserved to get in the playoffs. In the two matchups with Chat and Cit, WCU lost by a combined total of 23-69. Regardless, though, one team's success, does not merit the conference's total strength, nor does it merit the strength of the first team out. Especially not when that team got smoked by the ones that made the playoffs. If Portland State rolls through to the title, it doesn't mean Northern Arizona should have been in. Same thing with Sam Houston and Central Arkansas. Playoff games are way different than regular season conference games, and you can't try to use playoff success to deem a conference worthy of greatness or its best snubs worthy of inclusion.

[MTfan4life]

Certainly not the "be all & end all," but, at this point in the season, Mr. Massey does have a good bit of data driving his predictions.
So, using "Massey Matchup" projects...WCU would beat 8 teams in the Playoff field; half of those by 2 or more scores; would beat 1 team which won a 1st round game; and would beat 1 team which rec'd a 1st round bye...FWIW


Massey's predictions went 4 out of 8 in the first round and is in second to last place out of 69 brackets scored in the AGS challenge.

[FUBeAR]

Massey's predictions went 4 out of 8 in the first round and is in second to last place out of 69 brackets scored in the AGS challenge.

Shouldn't you be scoring more brackets rather than using unbiased data to make posts that counter my biased 'data driven' arguments? xpeacex

[clenz]

Every year. Same dumb argument.

Let's say Cit and Chat were both on opposite sides of the bracket and they both rolled their way to the title. It still doesn't mean Western Carolina deserved to get in the playoffs. In the two matchups with Chat and Cit, WCU lost by a combined total of 23-69. Regardless, though, one team's success, does not merit the conference's total strength, nor does it merit the strength of the first team out. Especially not when that team got smoked by the ones that made the playoffs. If Portland State rolls through to the title, it doesn't mean Northern Arizona should have been in. Same thing with Sam Houston and Central Arkansas. Playoff games are way different than regular season conference games, and you can't try to use playoff success to deem a conference worthy of greatness or its best snubs worthy of inclusion.
This.

Hell, I'll go a step further and say that a team winning games in the playoffs doesn't justify them getting in either - per say.

I still don't believe SHSU should have gotten into the playoffs in 2013. They had 6 D1 wins (WIU has more outrage about getting in with 6 D1 wins that SHSU...all because SHSU had 8 wins in the win column, because they played 2 non counters), lost their last two games of the season, had an artifically high ranking due to being in the title game the two years prior, and beat Southern Utah (who also didn't belong in the playoffs that year, IMO...these were the two controversial bids that year) in the first round. Everyone pointed to them winning that game, and then playing SELA close, as a sign they "deserved" the bid.

Same thing for bids in the NCAA tournament for basketball. Just because the 8th place B10 team gets in and proceeds to win a game doesn't prove they "deserved" that bid.

[clenz]

No thanks. Not losing more money. We need HOME games that require no return.

Would you like for me to tell you where to stick that soap box? Or do you need a radial diagram??
If that's the case the conference gives up the right to bitch about getting a bubble team left out for a conference who had a team play multiple top teams, and beat them.

If it's all about home games then go ahead and play strictly D2 and NAIA schools. You'll get real cheap home games, and pile up wins.

I think this is an issue that's going to bite the SLC in the ass in the coming years. They now play 9 conference games to determine the "true champion" and to make OOC scheduling easier. I like the idea of a true champion, especially since the last two years the MVFC has split a champion between teams who didn't play and were both ranked in the top 5, but not at the risk of potential bids for the conference. The SLC now has teams playing an FBS money game and then needing a home game for the other OOC. Well, MVFC, CAA and Big Sky programs aren't going to agree to "buy games" on the road. It sounds like the SoCon and Big South aren't either. That means it's playing a MEAC, SWAC or D2/NAIA. It's pretty damn tough to build a playoff resume off a schedule that goes:
FBS Loss
D2 win
Conference games against: Houston Baptist, Nicholls State, Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, Lamar, Stephan F Austin and Northwestern State

McNeese, SHSU, and UCA were the only eligible teams in that conference this year to finish over .500. Hell, they were the only ones over .500 in conference play even. Houston Baptist only played 8 conference games, and played College of Faith and something called Bethany OOC. The conference finished 7 games under .500 as a whole (55-64), and that's with McNeese, SHSU and UCA going a combined 26-7.

Credit to the MVFC and Big Sky for realizing that to build playoff a playoff resume, and get a good home schedule, you need to be willing to compromise.

We now see what the committee will be looking for in the last 4 at-large bids.
1. A ****ty second OVC team continued to be forced down our throats
2. One more CAA team still riding the wave of 05-10
3. Teams with strong conference resume
4. Teams that challenged themselves OOC

I don't know if I like WIU getting a bid at 6-5. I can see why they did, though. They finished 3rd in the MVFC and beat 2 playoff teams out of the MVFC. If you're going to put the 4th and 5th place MVFC programs in (UNI and SDSU in that order) there's no way you can leave the third place team that beat them out. They took playoff team CCU to the wire in a 1 score game in Conway, and curb stomped playoff team EIU.

Compare that resume to, say, WCU:
D2 win (that means WCU also only had 6 D1 wins, so the rest of their resume needs to look real good)
3 score loss to playoff team Citadel
5 score loss to playoff team Chattanooga
and then no other playoff, or even bubble teams, on their schedule

UND?
Did beat Portland State
Did have a FBS win...and then
3 point win over the 5th place Pioneer Football League team...at home (a team that was beaten 52-0 the next week at bottom of the MVFC South Dakota)
A loss to Idaho State (their only D1 win of the season)...at home...on homecoming
Curb stomped by playoff team NDSU
Curb stomped by playoff team Montana

Had UND not been Idaho State's one win of the season - especially just 1 week after beating Portland State - or found a way to make with Montana or NDSU look, even remotely, respectable they probably get in.

[Mocs123]

1.) I am not saying that WCU deserved to be in. It had been said all year they were a good team screwed by their schedule. They pretty much had to win the SoCon to get in the playoffs. If they had beaten UTC they might have gotten in too, but still. I imagine that schedule was put in place a few years ago when they didn't think they could be "on the bubble" for a playoff spot.

2.) Unfortunately going out and getting a big name FCS school isn't going get more butts in the seats at Chattanooga. The average football fan doesn't know who ISUr, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Northern Iowa, etc are. NDSU and Montana might be the exceptions. In this part of the country if it doesn't say Bama, Auburn, UT, Florida, etc they don't know anything about it.

The average football fan (not UTC die hards) in TN probably doesn't know the difference between Carson-Newman (D2)
Chattanooga (FCS)
Middle Tennessee (FBS)

To them we are all D2 Football Teams.

CAA teams like JMU or Richmond "might" draw a little better and would be good games for the Chattanooga Faithful.

Honestly our best draws would probably be JSU, TN State (if they would do a home and home), TTU, or Austin Peay. There are lots of TTU and AP grads in the area.

It would be nice to be the big dog in the neighborhood like Montana as their fan support seems fantastic, but here it seems like 10-11k is all we can average (which is sad - especially since 15k Chattanoogans drive to Knoxville to see UTK). JSU has done well bringing in fan support and they are smack dab in the middle of SEC country too.

I am not saying that I wouldn't like to play a school or two from the MVFC or the CAA etc, but it would cost more $ to fly our team and wouldn't have a big return of extra ticket sales when it comes to the return game.

[chattownmocs]

The 3 best teams on this side of the bracket are JSU, chattanooga, and The Citadel. The citadel will advance. Even if JSU beats Chattanooga, I think the Citadel matches up with JSU better than Chattanooga. So I think either the citadel or chattanooga will be in Frisco. It won't matter at that point whether we get 2, 3, or 4 teams in. That stuff is for losers. A team that finishes 5th in its conference is a scrub. Western Illinois was a scrub all year and they showed they were a scrub on saturday. If you want to put them in the playoffs and put a patsy in front of them, go ahead. Their true colors showed anyway.

[UNIFanSince1983]

The 3 best teams on this side of the bracket are JSU, chattanooga, and The Citadel. The citadel will advance. Even if JSU beats Chattanooga, I think the Citadel matches up with JSU better than Chattanooga. So I think either the citadel or chattanooga will be in Frisco. It won't matter at that point whether we get 2, 3, or 4 teams in. That stuff is for losers. A team that finishes 5th in its conference is a scrub. Western Illinois was a scrub all year and they showed they were a scrub on saturday. If you want to put them in the playoffs and put a patsy in front of them, go ahead. Their true colors showed anyway.

To be fair WIU finished 3rd in our conference. So the top 4 finishers in the MVFC won. The 5th place team is the one that lost.

[chattownmocs]

To be fair WIU finished 3rd in our conference. So the top 4 finishers in the MVFC won. The 5th place team is the one that lost.

Either way, they looked like a team that wasn't good enough to recieve an at-large bid. Regardless of their "resume" or where they finished in the mvc.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Either way, they looked like a team that wasn't good enough to recieve an at-large bid. Regardless of their "resume" or where they finished in the mvc.

Wasn't arguing that point at all. They looked much better when I saw them play against us in October. Did not look good against Dayton, and if they look like that again they will be out real quick.

[kalm]

No thanks. Not losing more money. We need HOME games that require no return.

Would you like for me to tell you where to stick that soap box? Or do you need a radial diagram??

Sounds like ya'll learned your lesson about "scheduling OOC" 150 years ago.

(Clenz, Winindy, and MtGF are spot on in this thread)

[CID1990]

I knew this trolly a$$ thread was going to produce some War and Peace responses

Well done

[Mayville Bison]

The SoCon stands at 14-6 on the year in FCS OOC games.

We are 4-2 against the Big South with the two losses to CCU and CSU.
- 2 close losses to the Top 2 teams in the Big South, one of those by a team that finished well down in the SoCon standings
- Wins were against the #2, tied for #5, and #7 twice (7 teams) - Impressive win by The Citadel

We are 2-2 against the OVC with a loss to JSU and TTU.
- 1 loss to the #1 Team in the Country that was within a shanked punt of beating an SEC traditional power and the other by a 2nd year program playing with less than full scholarships (who also got some nasty home-cooking served to them by the OVC Officiating Crew - 2 obvious PI's in the end zone not called, for example)
- Wins were against #6 and #9 (9 teams)

We are 0-1 against the CAA with VMI losing to Richmond.
- The last place team in the SoCon losing to the CAA's AQ Team

We are 1-0 against the Southland.
- Win was against tied for #2 (11 teams) I'd put this in the impressive category

We are 2-0 against the MEAC.
- Wins were against the #4 and tied for last (11 teams)

We are 1-1 against the Patriot a League with VMI losing to Bucknell.
- Last place team in the SoCon lost in OT
- Win was against #2 (7 teams) impressive only because Fordham is a playoff team. I would expect Chatty to beat Fordham 9 times out of 10, but I'll still include it as impressive.

We are 3-0 against the Pioneer League.
- Wins against the tied for #3 and two wins against the tied for last (11 teams)

We are 1-0 against FCS Independents.
- Win against a team without any D1 wins


The real kicker is that we were only 2-4 vs playoff teams.

We were 2-7 vs FBS Teams.

If Mercer had beaten TTU and VMI had beaten Bucknell it would eliminate the "bad" losses, then if we could have beaten JSU, CCU, or CSU it would have looked better.




Thank you for doing this! I was going to do it, but I am trying to close a 'deal' on my real job this morning...and occasionally, I have to get my priorities out of whack and not focus on Football....I've added some 'color' above to your data...

I've also added some 'color' to the data above. 3 impressive wins for the entire conference and two of them were from your top two teams. I'm not expecting VMI to go take down Richmond, but it's the Samford wins over UCA that will move the league forward. Figure a way to get more of those games on the non-conf schedules and the SoCon will get back to 3 teams again soon.

[kalm]

FWIW, most BIg Sky programs would LOVE a home and home with a SoCon.

[CID1990]

FWIW, most BIg Sky programs would LOVE a home and home with a SoCon.

Not going to happen, as much as I'd like to see it.

Unless one of your well heeled alumni want to pay for our charter plane.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[chattanoogamocs]

As much as a I like schools like Montana (my aunt an uncle live there are and UM season ticket holders, so this is why I am using them as an example) and in a perfect world, I would love to see the Mocs hop on a plane and do a H/H, it makes absolutely zero financial sense (the state legislature keeps squeezing more and more money out of the higher education budget, Chattanooga was forced to cut $5 million from the University last year alone). Chattanooga needs to be scheduling games that give their fans a chance to travel economically (i.e. in a car, just a few hours) and play schools with good alumni bases in the Tennessee valley that will draw at home (no matter how much I like UM, most fans wouldn't give a flip about playing them, they wouldn't be a "draw").

Obviously, I am willing to travel, I went to New Hampshire last year, but only about 60 UTC fans were in the stands...it would be about the same if we had a game at Montana...and I doubt there would be many more Montana fans on the return to Chattanooga.

The reason you don't see matchups like this happening is because AD's have more common "cents" than fans. ;)

[PaladinFan]

As much as a I like schools like Montana (my aunt an uncle live there are and UM season ticket holders, so this is why I am using them as an example) and in a perfect world, I would love to see the Mocs hop on a plane and do a H/H, it makes absolutely zero financial sense (the state legislature keeps squeezing more and more money out of the higher education budget, Chattanooga was forced to cut $5 million from the University last year alone). Chattanooga needs to be scheduling games that give their fans a chance to travel economically (i.e. in a car, just a few hours) and play schools with good alumni bases in the Tennessee valley that will draw at home (no matter how much I like UM, most fans wouldn't give a flip about playing them, they wouldn't be a "draw").

Obviously, I am willing to travel, I went to New Hampshire last year, but only about 60 UTC fans were in the stands...it would be about the same if we had a game at Montana...and I doubt there would be many more Montana fans on the return to Chattanooga.

The reason you don't see matchups like this happening is because AD's have more common "cents" than fans. ;)

Well, that and we live in an area where you can't take ten steps without tripping over a college football program.

Football is expensive. As much as the fans would love to see cross continental matchups, the fiscally sound option is just to play one of the numerous FCS teams just down the street. I mean, there are 9 D1 football schools in South Carolina alone.

[BisonFan02]

Not going to happen, as much as I'd like to see it.

Unless one of your well heeled alumni want to pay for our charter plane.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We flew Prairie View A&M out to Fargo and paid them a guarantee in the 200k range I believe.

[Mocs123]

Teams out west have to fly to a lot of games anyways so cost isn't a concern. I mean it doesn't cost more for NDSU to fly to play The Citadel than it does for them to play ISUr as both are probably flights.

We only fly for FBS games and try to avoid that playing schools close enough to bus to like Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, etc.

The cost of flying teams around is a fact of life west of the Mississippi, heck Montana probably has to fly everywhere but Montana State which is a ~3.5 hour drive. Further east we have so many FCS schools within bussing distance it is a hard sell for our AD to fork out the dough to fly to an FCS game. Of course that plethora of FCS schools help keep most FCS schools in the east from growing massive regional fan bases like Montana or NDSU. Winning certainly helps too, which both of those programs have done plenty of.

[CID1990]

We flew Prairie View A&M out to Fargo and paid them a guarantee in the 200k range I believe.

Make The Citadel that offer and we'll be there whenever the hell you want us. Heck, we might drop UNC next season.

[BisonFan02]

Make The Citadel that offer and we'll be there whenever the hell you want us. Heck, we might drop UNC next season.

http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/content/bison-add-delaware-state-2013-schedule


The Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference opponent will come to the Fargodome on Sept. 21. It comes after a bye week following NDSU's season-opening games at Kansas State and at home against Montana State. And it didn't come cheap for the NDSU athletic department, either, which is paying the Hornets a $200,000 total package guarantee that includes hotel rooms and charter flight, a figure that is on par with what NDSU paid Prairie View A&M (Texas) to come to Fargo last year.

"We have to pay for their travel 100 percent or else people won't want to get on an airplane," said NDSU athletic director Gene Taylor.



Also....LOL at the bold.... It might have been a total 200k? How much would the hotels and charter cost? Anyone have an idea?

[mvemjsunpx]

Teams out west have to fly to a lot of games anyways so cost isn't a concern. I mean it doesn't cost more for NDSU to fly to play The Citadel than it does for them to play ISUr as both are probably flights.

We only fly for FBS games and try to avoid that playing schools close enough to bus to like Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, etc.

The cost of flying teams around is a fact of life west of the Mississippi, heck Montana probably has to fly everywhere but Montana State which is a ~3.5 hour drive. Further east we have so many FCS schools within bussing distance it is a hard sell for our AD to fork out the dough to fly to an FCS game. Of course that plethora of FCS schools help keep most FCS schools in the east from growing massive regional fan bases like Montana or NDSU. Winning certainly helps too, which both of those programs have done plenty of.

Montana also buses to EWU, Idaho State, and Weber (Cheney is the same distance as Bozeman), but I believe your larger point is correct.

[chattanoogamocs]

http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/content/bison-add-delaware-state-2013-schedule



Also....LOL at the bold.... It might have been a total 200k? How much would the hotels and charter cost? Anyone have an idea?

I know when Chattanooga played Oklahoma in 2008(?), our AD negotiated a $400K paycheck, plus $75K to cover travel expenses.

It adds up quickly...the flight, the rooms, buses for transport, meals, etc. Now the Mocs just stick to SEC teams (better pay days and half the expenses).

The basic philosophy of the Chattanooga AD is, if you are going to more than likely take a loss, you might as well get the maximum amount of cash...which is why the Mocs have typically played Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida State, etc, etc. We do get Kentucky in 2017, that one might actually be winnable.

In 2014 (a 12 game year) the Mocs lost a game to an opponent back out and found that Central Michigan was desperate for a home opener, UTC managed to squeeze $350K out of that game (and almost got the win too).

Getting $200k for a non-return game is not a very smart financial move, unless you are really desperate for cash.

[clenz]

I know when Chattanooga played Oklahoma in 2008(?), our AD negotiated a $400K paycheck, plus $75K to cover travel expenses.

It adds up quickly...the flight, the rooms, buses for transport, meals, etc. Now the Mocs just stick to SEC teams (better pay days and half the expenses).

The basic philosophy of the Chattanooga AD is, if you are going to more than likely take a loss, you might as well get the maximum amount of cash...which is why the Mocs have typically played Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida State, etc, etc. We do get Kentucky in 2017, that one might actually be winnable.

In 2014 (a 12 game year) the Mocs lost a game to an opponent back out and found that Central Michigan was desperate for a home opener, UTC managed to squeeze $350K out of that game (and almost got the win too).

Getting $200k for a non-return game is not a very smart financial move, unless you are really desperate for cash.
So you just assume you're going to lose to an MVFC team?

[FUBeAR]

After Round 2...

1. Missouri Valley (5/3) (ILL St (AQ) (1-0), NDSU (1-0), UNI (2-0), SDSU (0-1), WIU (1-1)) 5-2 = .714
2. Patriot League (2/1) (Colgate (AQ) (2-0), Fordham (0-1)) 2-1 = .667
2. Southland (2/1) (McNeese (AQ) (0-1), SHSU (2-0)) 2-1 =.667
4. Big South (2/1) (CSU (AQ) (1-0), CCU (0-1)) 1-1 = .500
4. Ohio Valley (2/1) (JSU (AQ) (1-0), EIU (0-1)) 1-1 = .500
4. Southern (2/0) (Chatt (AQ) (1-1), CIT (1-1)) 2-2 = .500
7. Colonial Athletic Association (4/1) (Richmond (AQ) (1-0), JMU (0-1), W&M (1-1), UNH (0-1)) 2-3 = .400
8. Big Sky (3/0) (SUU (AQ) (0-1), Portland St (0-1), Montana (1-1)) 1-3 = .250
9. Northeast (1/0) (Duquesne (AQ) (L)) 0-1 .000
9. Pioneer League (1/0) (Dayton (AQ (L)) 0-1 .000

Welp...looks like the MVFC has risen to their deserved place in the FCS pecking order. On the other hand, it might appear that the CAA getting 4 teams in and the Big Sky getting in 3 was a bit of an undeserved 'reach' by the selection committee. An argument can be made for the Big Sky based on the competition they faced in the 1st 2 rounds, but hard to say that the CAA deserved more than 1 team in...maybe 2. If Colgate beats or plays SHSU very close, then I suppose a defense for the CAA can be made, but we'll have to wait until next week to determine that.

[Engineer86]

After Round 2...

1. Missouri Valley (5/3) (ILL St (AQ) (1-0), NDSU (1-0), UNI (2-0), SDSU (0-1), WIU (1-1)) 5-2 = .714
2. Patriot League (2/1) (Colgate (AQ) (2-0), Fordham (0-1)) 2-1 = .667
2. Southland (2/1) (McNeese (AQ) (0-1), SHSU (2-0)) 2-1 =.667
4. Big South (2/1) (CSU (AQ) (1-0), CCU (0-1)) 1-1 = .500
4. Ohio Valley (2/1) (JSU (AQ) (1-0), EIU (0-1)) 1-1 = .500
4. Southern (2/0) (Chatt (AQ) (1-1), CIT (1-1)) 2-2 = .500
7. Colonial Athletic Association (4/1) (Richmond (AQ) (1-0), JMU (0-1), W&M (1-1), UNH (0-1)) 2-3 = .400
8. Big Sky (3/0) (SUU (AQ) (0-1), Portland St (0-1), Montana (1-1)) 1-3 = .250
9. Northeast (1/0) (Duquesne (AQ) (L)) 0-1 .000
9. Pioneer League (1/0) (Dayton (AQ (L)) 0-1 .000

Welp...looks like the MVFC has risen to their deserved place in the FCS pecking order. On the other hand, it might appear that the CAA getting 4 teams in and the Big Sky getting in 3 was a bit of an undeserved 'reach' by the selection committee. An argument can be made for the Big Sky based on the competition they faced in the 1st 2 rounds, but hard to say that the CAA deserved more than 1 team in...maybe 2. If Colgate beats or plays SHSU very close, then I suppose a defense for the CAA can be made, but we'll have to wait until next week to determine that.

I think you are reading to much into specific games or teams. Colgate is on a good roll and after 3 years of schollies seems to be starting to gel. To base what league or teams deserve to be in based on that is not appropriate IMO. In Colgates case, they are in due to a goal line stand of Lehigh, otherwise Fordham would be all the PL would have in. As was stated on another post, LU and CU were playing the best football in PL at the end of the year. If you think Colgates wins are not a matter of their coming together at the right time, then it should say that the Ivies, who did well against the PL this year would do very well in the playoffs. Nothing against the Ivies, but I think it is more a matter of Colgate gelling at the right time.

[FUBeAR]

After the semi-finals...FWIW

1. Ohio Valley (2/1) (JSU (AQ) (3-0), EIU (0-1)) 3-1 = .750
2. Missouri Valley (5/1) (NDSU (AQ) (3-0), ILL St (1-1), , UNI (2-1), SDSU (0-1), WIU (1-1)) 7-4 = .636
3. Southland (2/0) (McNeese (AQ) (0-1), SHSU (3-1)) 3-2 =.600
4. Southern (2/0) (Chatt (AQ) (1-1), CIT (1-1)) 2-2 = .500
4. Patriot League (2/0) (Colgate (AQ) (2-1), Fordham (0-1)) 2-2 = .500
6. Colonial Athletic Association (4/0) (Richmond (AQ) (2-1), JMU (0-1), W&M (1-1), UNH (0-1)) 3-4 = .429
7. Big South (2/0) (CSU (AQ) (1-1), CCU (0-1)) 1-2 = .333
8. Big Sky (3/0) (SUU (AQ) (0-1), Portland St (0-1), Montana (1-1)) 1-3 = .250
9. Northeast (1/0) (Duquesne (AQ) (L)) 0-1 .000
9. Pioneer League (1/0) (Dayton (AQ (L)) 0-1 .000

So...

...if NDSU loses to JaxSt, the MVFC will drop to 3rd place at .583 behind the OVC, which will be at .800, and the Southland at .600
...if JaxSt loses to NDSU, the OVC will drop to a tie for 2nd place with the Southland at .600 and the MVFC will move to 1st place at .667

[BisonFan02]

After the semi-finals...FWIW

1. Ohio Valley (2/1) (JSU (AQ) (3-0), EIU (0-1)) 3-1 = .750
2. Missouri Valley (5/1) (ILL St (AQ) (1-1), NDSU (3-0), UNI (2-1), SDSU (0-1), WIU (1-1)) 7-4 = .636
3. Southland (2/0) (McNeese (AQ) (0-1), SHSU (3-1)) 3-2 =.600
4. Southern (2/0) (Chatt (AQ) (1-1), CIT (1-1)) 2-2 = .500
4. Patriot League (2/0) (Colgate (AQ) (2-1), Fordham (0-1)) 2-2 = .500
6. Colonial Athletic Association (4/0) (Richmond (AQ) (2-1), JMU (0-1), W&M (1-1), UNH (0-1)) 3-4 = .429
7. Big South (2/0) (CSU (AQ) (1-1), CCU (0-1)) 1-2 = .333
8. Big Sky (3/0) (SUU (AQ) (0-1), Portland St (0-1), Montana (1-1)) 1-3 = .250
9. Northeast (1/0) (Duquesne (AQ) (L)) 0-1 .000
9. Pioneer League (1/0) (Dayton (AQ (L)) 0-1 .000


Yeah....and if the entire Valley wasn't on the same side of the bracket, there might be two teams left instead of 1. What's your point? Also, NDSU had the AQ...not ISUr.

[Bisonator]

Yeah this doesn't make much sense when you consider conference teams taking each other out.

[FUBeAR]

Yeah....and if the entire Valley wasn't on the same side of the bracket, there might be two teams left instead of 1. What's your point? Also, NDSU had the AQ...not ISUr.

* Might be...I assume you mean Northern Iowa as ISUr was taken out by a CAA team & SDSU by a Big Sky team...and, though Western Illinois was taken out by another MVFC team, I wouldn't think that their 6-5 record nor 'showing' against a PFL team in the 1st round would project them as making the Championship game. Certainly would have been interesting if Northern Iowa were on the other side from NDSU. I guess, although they aren't in the same conference, a case could be made that it might have been equally as interesting if Chatt and JSU were on opposite sides of the bracket since the Mocs took the Cocks to OT and the Cocks haven't really been tested in the subsequent 2 rounds. Looking at the bracket, it seems the CAA, the Big Sky, and the OVC rec'd the benefit of having at least 1 of their multiple teams on opposite sides of the bracket. SoCon, Big South, Patriot, and the Southland were all in the 'same boat' with the MVFC, with the Southland being the only other conference in that group to knock 'its own' out of the running. Richmond did knock out W&M, but the CAA had JMU and New Hampshire on the other side of the bracket, but neither of them could get by the Patriot's AQ, Colgate.

* My point is that these are the records of the various conferences in the 2015 FCS playoffs. Is there anything we can infer from these records about relative strength of conferences and/or number of playoff teams selected from each conference this year?

* You are correct. I guess I assumed that since ISUr had a higher seed than NDSU, they were the AQ. I was wrong. I have corrected that in the most recent post of the rankings. Thanks for pointing that out.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I would like to go back through the history and figure out if the two conferences (or one conference) that meet in the finals are always the top two in the end. If so it really makes this whole thing pointless. Because two conferences look really good just because of two teams.

[Professor Chaos]

Well, it is pretty easy to take out intra-conference matchups and just figure out what the OOC record for each conference in the playoffs is and it doesn't change the order at all:

1. OVC 3-1 (.750)
2. MVFC 5-2 (.714)
3. SLC 2-1 (.667)
4. SOCON 2-2 (.500)
4. Patriot 2-2 (.500)
6. CAA 2-3 (.400)
7. Big South 1-2 (.333)
8. Big Sky 1-3 (.250)
9. NEC 0-1 (.000)
9. Pioneer 0-1 (.000)

[UNIFanSince1983]

But again the OVC is skewed with only 2 teams in and one to the finals.

Like this doesn't prove that a conference as a whole was good. It just proves there was one good team in that conference. Playoff performance is not indicative of overall conference strength.

[FUBeAR]

I would like to go back through the history and figure out if the two conferences (or one conference) that meet in the finals are always the top two in the end. If so it really makes this whole thing pointless. Because two conferences look really good just because of two teams.

You might be right...probably makes sense mathematically. Is it still pointless if there is anything to be gleaned from looking beyond the top 2 though?

[Bisonator]

You might be right...probably makes sense mathematically. Is it still pointless if there is anything to be gleaned from looking beyond the top 2 though?

Like the Patriot is now better then the CAA and Big Sky?:D

[Professor Chaos]

But again the OVC is skewed with only 2 teams in and one to the finals.

Like this doesn't prove that a conference as a whole was good. It just proves there was one good team in that conference. Playoff performance is not indicative of overall conference strength.
If only there were things like computers with complex rating algorithms who could figure this stuff out for us. ;)

[UNIFanSince1983]

If only there were things like computers with complex rating algorithms who could figure this stuff out for us. ;)

I am a huge fan of computers ;)

(Programmer by trade BTW)

[FUBeAR]

Like the Patriot is now better then the CAA and Big Sky?:D

Is it really such a ridiculous proposition that the Patriot may now be better than the CAA? The Patriot AQ (Colgate) beat 2 CAA teams in the Playoffs (both on the road, I believe), including the CAA's highest seeded team (#5 - JMU) and the Patriot's other entry had the misfortune of taking a LONG road trip in the 1st round to face a team (Chatt) that took one of the finalists (JSU) to OT...and the only team that has really tested that finalist in the playoffs.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Is it really such a ridiculous proposition that the Patriot may now be better than the CAA? The Patriot AQ (Colgate) beat 2 CAA teams in the Playoffs (both on the road, I believe), including the CAA's highest seeded team (#5 - JMU) and the Patriot's other entry had the misfortune of taking a LONG road trip in the 1st round to face a team (Chatt) that took one of the finalists (JSU) to OT...and the only team that has really tested that finalist in the playoffs.

But then you are only comparing one Patriot team to the CAA. Is Colgate better than JMU and UNH? Well I think they proved that. Would Bucknell be better than them? What about Lafayette or Lehigh? There is more to the story than just one team beating teams in the playoffs especially when comparing conferences.

[FUBeAR]

But then you are only comparing one Patriot team to the CAA. Is Colgate better than JMU and UNH? Well I think they proved that. Would Bucknell be better than them? What about Lafayette or Lehigh? There is more to the story than just one team beating teams in the playoffs especially when comparing conferences.

Well, Lafayette went 1-10/0-6 this year (only lost to Colgate by 9 though) and finished in last place in the PL, so they weren't exactly a playoff contender.
Bucknell finished 4-7/1-5 (only lost to Colgate by 4 though @ Colgate) and finished in next to last place in the PL, so they weren't exactly a playoff contender either.
Lehigh did finish 6-5/4-2 though and only lost to Colgate by 7 @ Colgate. They were 3rd in the PL. Probably not playoff worthy...but were they much less worthy than 7-4 New Hampshire, who also lost to Colgate by 7 in the Playoffs @ Home?

[Mattymc727]

UNH also beat Colgate @ Colgate this year, so its still not determined whether Colgate was actually the better team. They were that day in December, but I wouldnt say its definite.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Lehigh lost to JMU 55-17. I bet during the regular season the CAA had a winning record against the PL and it wasn't close. Again this is why you cannot just use playoff games and their results as a barometer of the quality of conferences.

[Cocky]

It's valid info if it helps your argument, invalid if it doesn't.

[FUBeAR]

you cannot just use playoff games and their results as a barometer of the quality of conferences.

Agreed, you cannot JUST use these results, but don't you think you can ALSO use these results along with historical results, regular-season OOC results, results vs. FBS teams, comparative scores, and the good old 'eye test' to make such an assessment? If so, then it does make sense to take a look at and consider them, right?

You aren't saying Playoff Results are invalid, are you? If so, then I'd have to wonder what are the point of the playoffs as a whole...and I think a large number of Bison fans might take issue with that contention. xlolx

[Bisonator]

Agreed, you cannot JUST use these results, but don't you think you can ALSO use these results along with historical results, regular-season OOC results, results vs. FBS teams, comparative scores, and the good old 'eye test' to make such an assessment? If so, then it does make sense to take a look at and consider them, right?

You aren't saying Playoff Results are invalid, are you? If so, then I'd have to wonder what are the point of the playoffs as a whole...and I think a large number of Bison fans might take issue with that contention. xlolx

Just looking at the playoffs alone isn't going to prove which conference is better. It's too small a sample size. I would say cumulative OOC results determine conference strength.

[FUBeAR]

Just looking at the playoffs alone isn't going to prove which conference is better. It's too small a sample size. I would say cumulative OOC results determine conference strength.

OK...Using your proposed single measure of relative conference strength...first, I think it would be necessary to define 'cumulative.' Over how many years? What if conferences changed teams in any way during the time period you propose? What if the conference rules have changed over the selected time period to allow greater numbers of scholarships over that time? How do you account for those things? As to 'sample size,' using your proposed single measure, the longer you 'reach back,' the larger the sample size would be, BUT also the chances of the issues I raised above coming into the sample size, thereby, possibly, skewing the results, also increase. Also, the further back you 'reach,' the more the analysis becomes a lagging metric - more an indicator of past performance than current strength.

Relying on a single metric or too heavily on historical data will, IMHO, yield rankings which are determined too narrowly and/or too 'dated' to be completely valid. If the CFB Playoff Committee took this approach, we might have Michigan, Notre Dame, Yale, and Texas in this year's playoff... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_football_teams_by_wins - GO ELI's!!!

[Bisonator]

OK...Using your proposed single measure of relative conference strength...first, I think it would be necessary to define 'cumulative.' Over how many years? What if conferences changed teams in any way during the time period you propose? What if the conference rules have changed over the selected time period to allow greater numbers of scholarships over that time? How do you account for those things? As to 'sample size,' using your proposed single measure, the longer you 'reach back,' the larger the sample size would be, BUT also the chances of the issues I raised above coming into the sample size, thereby, possibly, skewing the results, also increase. Also, the further back you 'reach,' the more the analysis becomes a lagging metric - more an indicator of past performance than current strength.

Relying on a single metric or too heavily on historical data will, IMHO, yield rankings which are determined too narrowly and/or too 'dated' to be completely valid. If the CFB Playoff Committee took this approach, we might have Michigan, Notre Dame, Yale, and Texas in this year's playoff... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_football_teams_by_wins - GO ELI's!!!
You can only go with a single season. By cumulative OOC results I am talking all OOC games played during a season rather then the small sample size of the playoffs.

[PAllen]

How does showing that playoff teams from conference A are clearly better than last place teams from conference B show that conference A is better than conference B? I would say that this year the PL was comparable to the CAA. That said, this was a terrible year for the PL, so that's quite a surprise. In years to come, the PL might surpass the CAA, but I doubt it. All the more reason why you should judge teams by what they do on the field in any given year, not what they or their conference mates have done in previous years.

[UNIFanSince1983]

How does showing that playoff teams from conference A are clearly better than last place teams from conference B show that conference A is better than conference B? I would say that this year the PL was comparable to the CAA. That said, this was a terrible year for the PL, so that's quite a surprise. In years to come, the PL might surpass the CAA, but I doubt it. All the more reason why you should judge teams by what they do on the field in any given year, not what they or their conference mates have done in previous years.

I think that was my point. He was saying that the PL was better than the CAA simply because Colgate beat UNH and JMU. Well that is the same as just comparing the top teams in two conferences. Say JSU were to beat NDSU does that make the OVC better than the MVFC? Or does that just mean that JSU was better than NDSU?

[UNIFanSince1983]

The playoffs are good for determining the best team not necessarily the best conference as a whole.

[PAllen]

The playoffs are good for determining the best team not necessarily the best conference as a whole.

Absolutely. The playoffs can't be the measuring stick used to compare conferences as a whole. Only the best team/teams in a conference are represented. Holy Cross or Lafayette would have been killed by JMU (especially with Lee healthy), but I'd have liked their chances against URI or Elon.

[NDSUtk]

I also looked at your stats and started dividing out how many games each respective conference averaged. So if you had 5 games with 2 teams, you averaged 2.5 games per team from your conference. Is it any better than raw winning percentage? Probably not. Just another way to slice that data.

Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk

[FUBeAR]

He was saying that the PL was better than the CAA simply because Colgate beat UNH and JMU.

I assume by "he" that you meant me. I did nothing of the sort. I asked you (and others) to think about whether or not that is such a ridiculous idea - that maybe the top 2 or 3 teams in the PL are as good or better than the top 4 or 5 in the CAA.

I don't really care which conference we fans 'say' is better than the other. I do care about equity in the selection process for at large playoff berths. I do wonder if the 4th team from the CAA, the 5th team from the MVFC, and the 3rd team from the Big Sky were truly more deserving of those berths than 3rd & 4th place teams from other conferences or was there some historical or relational bias that came into play in those selections. I don't know the answer to those questions because I barely saw any of those teams play. Many members of this board did though & have much better informed opinions than I. I'm just putting 1 set of relative results 'out there' and learning from the discussion around those results.

[Lehigh'98]

Like the Patriot is now better then the CAA and Big Sky?:D

You are what your record says you are....in the playoffs :)

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Next year will be interesting between the PL and CAA. The PL finally has four scholarship classes so the transition is complete. There's some big early season games, Colgate-Richmond, HC-UNH and Lehigh-Villanova. Those 3 contests could go a long way towards perception and playoff positioning.