MVFC Playoff Outlook

[Professor Chaos]

Post-Week 9 Update (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?176414-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook&p=2276431&viewfull=1#post2276431)
Post-Week 10 Update (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?176414-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook&p=2280786&viewfull=1#post2280786)
Post-Week 11 Update (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?176414-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook&p=2284853&viewfull=1#post2284853)


I did this last year and enjoyed it. Not sure how much anyone else did but I thought I'd post anyway since it looks like it may be another year of 4-5 MVFC playoff teams. With only 4 weeks left in the season there's still 9 conference teams with playoff hopes but 6 of them are on the bubble right now so that number is likely to shrink in a hurry. I ordered the teams according to what I think is the easiest road to the playoffs to the toughest.


Locks

None yet.


Should be in

Illinois St 6-1 (4-0)
Quality wins: UNI, WIU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUb, @SDSU, @SIU, USD
Winning 2 of their last 4 would lock them in but they've got tough games left. The YSU win doesn't look so good anymore but the EIU win is looking better so either of those could get into the quality win category. They're trending towards a top 2 seed right now.


Work to do

South Dakota St 5-2 (2-2)
Quality wins: @KU, SUU, ISUb
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @MSU, ISUr, @USD, @WIU
Even with the loss to UNI the Jacks are still in good shape. Their strong nonconference resume should help them alot if they drop another game or two. I think they're in with 2 more wins but they'll likely be seeded if they can take 3 or more. That last 3 game stretch won't be easy however.

North Dakota St 5-2 (3-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU, UNI, @ISUb
Bad losses: USD
Remaining games: @SIU, WIU, @YSU, MSU
I have a feeling that USD loss is going to come back to bite the Bison if not in terms of making playoffs in terms of seeding/1st round bye. One more loss and I'm not sure they'll be able to get back into the seeds but if they can run the table they'll likely get back into the top 4. They still need to win at least 2 of 4 to make the playoffs and 3 of 4 to be locked in.


On the bubble

Western Illinois 4-3 (3-1)
Quality wins: @UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: YSU, @NDSU, @ISUb, SDSU
Western's schedule is turning out to be the toughest in the league since the only team they miss is hapless MSU and pretty much everyone else in the conference looks tough this year. They'll need to win 3 of their last 4 to be in the conversation. I think they've got the ability to do it but they'll need to firing on all cylinders.

Indiana St 4-3 (2-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @ISUr, @UNI, WIU, YSU
Indiana St is in a tough spot having to win 3 of 4 to get to 7 wins against a very tough schedule. They'll need to steal one on the road over the next couple weeks to have a shot with their weak slate of wins to this point.

Northern Iowa 3-4 (1-3)
Quality wins: EWU, @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: USD, ISUb, @MSU, SIU
The Panthers stayed alive last week with a big win in Brookings and all of a sudden have some rekindled playoff hopes as their schedule softens up considerably. They should be favored in each of their last 4 with 3 of them at home. They seem to be good for at least one head scratching loss per year though which they haven't gotten yet but if any team is going to be the first team with 6 D1 wins to make the playoffs it might be this one.

South Dakota 4-3 (2-2)
Quality wins: @NDSU
Bad losses: YSU
Reamining games: @UNI, SIU, SDSU, @ISUr
The Yotes rode the momentum of their stunning upset at NDSU to another win against MSU last week but that's the last break they'll get. They'll need to win 3 of 4 which is a tall order with their schedule and without their star RB Bouma. Still, the fact they're in this position now is pretty surprising given where they were at 2 weeks ago.


Must win out

Youngstown St 3-4 (1-3)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: @SIU
Remaining games: @WIU, MSU, NDSU, @ISUb
This once promising YSU team has their postseason hopes on life support after a 3 game losing streak including blowing a 11 point 4th quarter lead against SIU last Saturday. They need to win out to get in.

Southern Illinois 3-4 (2-2)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: @SEMO
Remaining games: NDSU, @USD, ISUr, @UNI
SIU stayed alive with an OT win over YSU last week but they need to win out to have a chance with their weak slate of wins so far. If they can win out they'll certainly be in but that's a tall order with their remaining schedule.


Out of contention

Missouri St 1-6 (0-4) - This team might've been out of contention by mid-September

[Missingnumber7]

ISUR is in the drivers seat, and that hasn't been kind to many people this year.

SDSU has 2 tough games left as does NDSU (@SIU/@YSU, and WIU isn't quite the same team on the road as it is at home)

WIU can really prove they belong with YSU/SDSU/NDSU
UNI needs to be themselves and they should be fine getting into the playoffs, any slips or result that is a head scratcher may spell trouble, although the with the way the rest of the FCS is going I don't think they have an issue getting in if they win out.
ISUB/USD have very tough roads ahead. 1 surprise result could give either the confidence they need to make a big push.

YSU is a team I just don't get...they have the talent, but they have struggled in close games. Winning out with their remaining schedule is a very daunting task, I think WIU puts a nail in their coffin this weekend, but that makes them a much more dangerous team for everyone else the rest of the way having a team playing for nothing but pride scares me.
SIU has enough talent to be a scary team, and the 'stache has ways of pulling rabbits out of hats. Having NDSU/ISUR at home doesn't hurt, but I think they too will be done after Saturday.

[CappinHard]

You think SDSU would get a seed winning 3 out of 4? If 1 of those wins is against ISUr, and the loss is against WIU, I see it being more likely. But assuming the loss is against ISUr, I don't see us getting a seed. This is why the UNI loss is so crushing. The path to a seed looked pretty good with a win over UNI, now it looks pretty daunting.

[Professor Chaos]

You think SDSU would get a seed winning 3 out of 4? If 1 of those wins is against ISUr, and the loss is against WIU, I see it being more likely. But assuming the loss is against ISUr, I don't see us getting a seed. This is why the UNI loss is so crushing. The path to a seed looked pretty good with a win over UNI, now it looks pretty daunting.
Yeah, I think they would. Just because you have to assume that other teams in the 6-10 range (which is where I'd expect SDSU will be in the upcoming polls this week) are also going to take a loss during that time. Right now you've got teams that already have 2 losses on those spots so I don't think it's a stretch to say by the end of the year teams with 3 losses could be in those spots. I think SUU continuing their ascent in the Big Sky would go a long way towards SDSU's potential for a seed at 8-3. Give them a win over a playoff team in SUU (if they keep up the pace they're at), a win over KU, and 5 wins in the MVFC I think SDSU at 8-3 would be looking pretty good at #7 or #8.

[jacksfan29]

Actually, I think NDSU runs the table and gets a seed. They have SIU at home, WIU on the road. They win both, YSU is a win and MSU, well that's a win. They go 9-2.

That means if SDSU doesn't win out we likely will be going back to Fargo. An 8-3 or 7-4 SDSU will once again get an OVC or BSC school in round 1 and a bus trip to Fargo for the 2nd round.

If SDSU and NDSU win out both will have 2 losses. If ISUr falls to SDSU they will have one FCS loss, one FBS loss. I think in that scenario the MVFC gets two seeds. Those seeds would be NDSU and ISUr. A 9-2 SDSU could get a break and be sent outside of the NDSU bracket. But don't count on it. Regionalization will take over and we will go to Fargo.

I'm not feeling great about our shot at a seed after our coaching staff screwed the pooch last weekend.


Yeah, I think they would. Just because you have to assume that other teams in the 6-10 range (which is where I'd expect SDSU will be in the upcoming polls this week) are also going to take a loss during that time. Right now you've got teams that already have 2 losses on those spots so I don't think it's a stretch to say by the end of the year teams with 3 losses could be in those spots. I think SUU continuing their ascent in the Big Sky would go a long way towards SDSU's potential for a seed at 8-3. Give them a win over a playoff team in SUU (if they keep up the pace they're at), a win over KU, and 5 wins in the MVFC I think SDSU at 8-3 would be looking pretty good at #7 or #8.

[Missingnumber7]

You think SDSU would get a seed winning 3 out of 4? If 1 of those wins is against ISUr, and the loss is against WIU, I see it being more likely. But assuming the loss is against ISUr, I don't see us getting a seed. This is why the UNI loss is so crushing. The path to a seed looked pretty good with a win over UNI, now it looks pretty daunting.

I think SDSU needs to win out to get a seed, or needs help. I'm not even sure if they win out they are guaranteed a seed. I think if they knock off ISUr it all depends on how the MVFC ends up. Buy the confusion that exists elsewhere sure helps. I think what would really help is Charleston Southern knocking off Coastal this week, I also think that if either EIU/EKU can knock off Jacksonville St, then the door is wide open. But if Lee is done for the season at JMU and they start to drop then there is an opening. There is just way to much important FB left to be played to make that guess. At this point I would say take care of business in house, cheer for 1 of 2 scenario's to happen 1) whatever makes the valley stronger or 2)whatever gives you the conference outright. Then be cheering for top teams to lose. I also think you need to become big UNI fans.

[centennial]

SDSU and NDSU both go undefeated they should both make seeds. That is unlikely however.

[Missingnumber7]

If SDSU and NDSU win out both will have 2 losses. If ISUr falls to SDSU they will have one FCS loss, one FBS loss. I think in that scenario the MVFC gets two seeds. Those seeds would be NDSU and ISUr. A 9-2 SDSU could get a break and be sent outside of the NDSU bracket. But don't count on it. Regionalization will take over and we will go to Fargo.

I'm not feeling great about our shot at a seed after our coaching staff screwed the pooch last weekend.

I think if you guys knock off ISUr that may cost them a seed, and that may help you. Especially when they look at the P5 win.

[Professor Chaos]

Actually, I think NDSU runs the table and gets a seed. They have SIU at home, WIU on the road. They win both, YSU is a win and MSU, well that's a win. They go 9-2.

That means if SDSU doesn't win out we likely will be going back to Fargo. An 8-3 or 7-4 SDSU will once again get an OVC or BSC school in round 1 and a bus trip to Fargo for the 2nd round.

If SDSU and NDSU win out both will have 2 losses. If ISUr falls to SDSU they will have one FCS loss, one FBS loss. I think in that scenario the MVFC gets two seeds. Those seeds would be NDSU and ISUr. A 9-2 SDSU could get a break and be sent outside of the NDSU bracket. But don't count on it. Regionalization will take over and we will go to Fargo.

I'm not feeling great about our shot at a seed after our coaching staff screwed the pooch last weekend.
NDSU actually has SIU on the road and WIU at home but I see what you're saying and I agree that the Bison have a more favorable schedule than SDSU does at this moment. I just think that SDSU's nonconference wins against SUU and KU are going to play very well for them if they, at 8-3 (if that's where they end up), get compared to 9-2 teams from weaker leagues for those last couple seeds.

[RabidRabbit]

NDSU actually has SIU on the road and WIU at home but I see what you're saying and I agree that the Bison have a more favorable schedule than SDSU does at this moment. I just think that SDSU's nonconference wins against SUU and KU are going to play very well for them if they, at 8-3 (if that's where they end up), get compared to 9-2 teams from weaker leagues for those last couple seeds.

If SDSU wins out, and NDSU wins out and ISU-R only has the SDSU loss, but wins the rest:

MVFC top half standings:
NDSU 7-1 9-2 losses to Montana/USD
ISU-R 7-1 9-2 losses to FBS/SDSU
SDSU 6-2 9-2 losses to NDSU/UNI
UNI 5-3 7-4 losses to NDSU, ISU-R, WIU and FBS
WIU 5-3 6-5 losses to NDSU, SDSU, ISU-R, CCU and FBS

Rest won't matter if above plays out.

Assuming that selection committee will not allow one league to hog 3 (of 8) seeds, then who's the odd team out?

NDSU would be the AQ again, as they beat Jacks and ISU-R would not.
NDSU gets a seed.
Now deciding if ISU-R or SDSU are seed. SDSU beat ISU-R, and has FBS win. Jacks get the other seed, even though finish a game behind in MVFC.

If Jacks beat ISU-R, but lose to WIU, then WIU ends up in second, 6-2 conference mark, SDSU ties with UNI at 5-3, and by tie breaker is 5th place team. Then ISU-R is 2nd seed in MVFC.

Key Game for a seed for Jacks, ISU-R. WIU also important game. SDSU had better win the two road games against pre-season cellar dweller picks. Misery St. shouldn't be a contest. USD, at DakotaDome...... Rivalry games can bite (USD at SDSU 1986).

[Sycamore62]

Ill take ISUb to split the next 2 weeks (@ISUr and @UNI) and beat WIU and YSU at home to finish the season at 7-4

[Missingnumber7]

Look at it this way, they could end up with the following 1 loss teams:
Jacksonville St
James Madison
Portland St
an Undefeated Coastal/1 loss Coastal/Charleston Southern
Richmond
Chattanooga
and possibly an Undefeated McNeese St

If the wrong scenario's happen I could see MVFC getting only 1 seed. I think you are correct on not getting more than 2.

But the key to everything is the Jacks taking care of their own business, actually that's the key for everyone right now.

[Professor Chaos]

Yeah, it appears I'm higher on SDSU that most are given their rankings in the AGS and STATS polls. I still think of the 3 top teams (ISUr, NDSU, and SDSU) the Jacks would have the strongest case for a seed at 8-3 but there would probably need to be some tremendous volatility inside the top 10 for the rest of the year for that to happen.

[ysubigred]

ISUR is in the drivers seat, and that hasn't been kind to many people this year.

SDSU has 2 tough games left as does NDSU (@SIU/@YSU, and WIU isn't quite the same team on the road as it is at home)

WIU can really prove they belong with YSU/SDSU/NDSU
UNI needs to be themselves and they should be fine getting into the playoffs, any slips or result that is a head scratcher may spell trouble, although the with the way the rest of the FCS is going I don't think they have an issue getting in if they win out.
ISUB/USD have very tough roads ahead. 1 surprise result could give either the confidence they need to make a big push.

YSU is a team I just don't get...they have the talent, but they have struggled in close games. Winning out with their remaining schedule is a very daunting task, I think WIU puts a nail in their coffin this weekend, but that makes them a much more dangerous team for everyone else the rest of the way having a team playing for nothing but pride scares me.
SIU has enough talent to be a scary team, and the 'stache has ways of pulling rabbits out of hats. Having NDSU/ISUR at home doesn't hurt, but I think they too will be done after Saturday.

All the folks that sees all this talent at YSU needs to call BO and point them out. Seems we have a few good players on both sides of the ball but after that it falls off drastically xeyebrowx
"IF" there is some kind of rebirth at YSU and they end up 7-4 I'd say a bubble playoff spot will be in order just because they'd have knocked off the "mighty" Bison.

ISU(r) Seed

NDSU Home 1st round

SDSU home 1st round

WIU ???

SIU 7-4 like YSU bubble

USD ^^

ISU (b) ^^

UNI 7-4 a lock 6-5 won't happen.

[REALBird]

All the folks that sees all this talent at YSU needs to call BO and point them out. Seems we have a few good players on both sides of the ball but after that it falls off drastically xeyebrowx
"IF" there is some kind of rebirth at YSU and they end up 7-4 I'd say a bubble playoff spot will be in order just because they'd have knocked off the "mighty" Bison.

ISU(r) Seed

NDSU Home 1st round

SDSU home 1st round

WIU ???

SIU 7-4 like YSU bubble

USD ^^

ISU (b) ^^

UNI 7-4 a lock 6-5 won't happen.

THIS is the MVFC. Nothing surprises me anymore. Right now my Redbirds are in the drivers seat, but all we need is a freak winter storm to come through Brookings like several years ago when we forgot how to play football in the cold, and SDSU can put NDSU back in the drivers seat. AGS is appropriate for this thread more than ever.

ISUb - seems winnable at home. We seem to play terrible there, and they seem to play terrible in our place. Go figure!!!!
@SDSU - we may have a chance if Teddy Corwin is back to playing every down
@SIU - could be a shootout in the makings. A chance to sweep the Illinois FCS circuit, but it won't be easy. Last one with the ball wins.
USD - Senior Day. This one should be winnable. But as we saw with NDSU/USD....no freebie games in the MVFC.

[jacksfan29]

Oops, your correct; I don't think it matters. I think Stick gets comfortable and NDSU runs the table. And I think we end up in Fargo, again. Just my opinion, it sucks but it won't change until we stop dropping games at home we shouldn't, and/or regionalization goes away.


NDSU actually has SIU on the road and WIU at home but I see what you're saying and I agree that the Bison have a more favorable schedule than SDSU does at this moment. I just think that SDSU's nonconference wins against SUU and KU are going to play very well for them if they, at 8-3 (if that's where they end up), get compared to 9-2 teams from weaker leagues for those last couple seeds.

[UNIFanSince1983]

We are not making the playoffs. Book it.

[PantherRob82]

We are not making the playoffs. Book it.

book it twice

[clenz]

book it twice
Thrice

[JayJ79]

I'm guessing UNI makes the playoffs and drops the first round game

[PantherRob82]

I'm guessing UNI makes the playoffs and drops the first round game

If we make the playoffs we win the first round.

[clenz]

YSU isn't making the playoffs.

Records by month since 2010-present (through 10/26/15)

Aug/Sept 18-6
Oct - 10-13
Nov - 6-10


Almost every single one of their Aug/Sept wins is a NEC or PFL game.

[Missingnumber7]

All the folks that sees all this talent at YSU needs to call BO and point them out. Seems we have a few good players on both sides of the ball but after that it falls off drastically xeyebrowx
"IF" there is some kind of rebirth at YSU and they end up 7-4 I'd say a bubble playoff spot will be in order just because they'd have knocked off the "mighty" Bison.

I think you give Bo another year to bring some kids that he wants in and it could be a scary story for the rest of the MVFC.

I think if YSU wins out they are definitely in.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I don't get the whole there is talent at YSU. I mean if two different coaches are getting similar results, especially a coach like Pelini, there probably isn't much talent there. People can say what they want to, but Pelini is a good coach. I think you give him a year or two of recruiting (if he doesn't go to FBS) and YSU will be in the playoffs and be a scary team to play.

[Houndawg]

All the folks that sees all this talent at YSU needs to call BO and point them out. Seems we have a few good players on both sides of the ball but after that it falls off drastically xeyebrowx
"IF" there is some kind of rebirth at YSU and they end up 7-4 I'd say a bubble playoff spot will be in order just because they'd have knocked off the "mighty" Bison.

ISU(r) Seed

NDSU Home 1st round

SDSU home 1st round

WIU ???

SIU 7-4 like YSU bubble

USD ^^

ISU (b) ^^

UNI 7-4 a lock 6-5 won't happen.

No. If SIU is 7-4 they are in solid because they will have beaten NDSU, USD, IlSt., and UNI to get there. A highly unlikely result.

[Missingnumber7]

I don't get the whole there is talent at YSU. I mean if two different coaches are getting similar results, especially a coach like Pelini, there probably isn't much talent there. People can say what they want to, but Pelini is a good coach. I think you give him a year or two of recruiting (if he doesn't go to FBS) and YSU will be in the playoffs and be a scary team to play.

There's talent, just not depth.

[ST_Lawson]

WIU ???

I think this is how most Leatherneck fans feel right now. We still have YSU, @NDSU, @ISUb, and SDSU. I doubt we'll go 4-0, but anything from 3-1 to 0-4 wouldn't surprise me, I think. All the teams have looked vulnerable at times...all potentially "winnable" games if we play as well as we can. I think we've just had too little success over the last decade or so...we're all just kinda waiting for the other shoe to drop. 3-1 will get us to 7-4 and we're in. 2-2 will get us to 6-5 with one of (if not THE) toughest schedule of all of the FCS teams...which...idk...might get us the last spot in the playoffs if we're lucky and get some help from other "bubble" teams. I think if we are going to make the playoffs, we need to beat YSU and ISUb and ideally steal one from one of the XDSU's, but even if we lose those two, if we play them both very close...we might still have a chance.

[Yote 53]

You've got to take it one week at a time. USD vs UNI is the next game on the schedule. It's a knock out game, loser is out of playoff contention. Conventional wisdom says UNI should win but USD is riding high right now and you couldn't ask for a more comfortable setting if you are a Coyote than the UNI Dome. Doesn't take much to get used to the sister-building.

[Bisonwinagn]

Hard to figure what good wins / bad losses are anymore. Teams can look bad because they're playing in a great conference.

[Thumper 76]

Glad this thread is back, one of my favorites!

[Professor Chaos]

Hard to figure what good wins / bad losses are anymore. Teams can look bad because they're playing in a great conference.
Agreed, but that will really start to clear up in a week or two. It's very likely that there will be different quality wins and bad losses by the end of the season than what I have up there now.

[Sycamore62]

Is there any mvfc team that wont get in with 7 wins.

Speculation of course

[ST_Lawson]

Is there any mvfc team that wont get in with 7 wins.

Speculation of course

Well, an 8-4 Youngstown State didn't make it in in 2013 (first year of the "expanded" 24-team playoffs)...mostly because 3 of their 4 losses came all in a row at the end of the season. Epic collapse leading up to selection Sunday can kinda hurt your chances.

I would think that barring a scenario like that, 7 wins and playing in the MVFC should get a team in.

At this point, that looks like ISUr, NDSU, SDSU, and some mix of WIU, ISUb, maybe even USD. UNI and YSU still have an outside chance, but it'd be really tough.

[Sycamore62]

Well, an 8-4 Youngstown State didn't make it in in 2013 (first year of the "expanded" 24-team playoffs)...mostly because 3 of their 4 losses came all in a row at the end of the season. Epic collapse leading up to selection Sunday can kinda hurt your chances.

I would think that barring a scenario like that, 7 wins and playing in the MVFC should get a team in.

At this point, that looks like ISUr, NDSU, SDSU, and some mix of WIU, ISUb, maybe even USD. UNI and YSU still have an outside chance, but it'd be really tough.

I suppose UNI SIU and YSU are having playoffs now, WIU USD and ISUb start playoffs after their next loss.

[UNIFanSince1983]

USD has a really really tough route to get to 7-4.

[Professor Chaos]

Is there any mvfc team that wont get in with 7 wins.

Speculation of course
I highly doubt it with as weak as the field looks this year. Like ST_Lawson said in 2014 YSU missed with 8 losses but that was a 12 game season and there were a few 8 D1 win teams from the better conferences left out that year if I recall correctly. If you go by the polls right now we have a bunch of 4-3 teams and one 3-4 team in that 20-25 range which would put all those teams squarely on the bubble. I'd have to think any of those teams going 3-1 or 4-0 to close out the regular season will put them in comfortably.

I think even a 6-5 UNI may have a shot. The threshold that "may" eliminate a team from consideration was changed to 6 D1 wins with the expansion to the 24 team field. No team with less than 7 D1 wins has ever made the playoffs but prior to last year no team with 5 losses had ever made the playoffs until a middling MVFC team with a stellar OOC resume in Indiana St bucked that trend. UNI could be in the same position this year at 6-5 (4-4).

[Missingnumber7]

Is there any mvfc team that wont get in with 7 wins.

Speculation of course

I think this year may be the year to have a lot of 7 win teams in the MVFC. There really isn't anyone in the list with scratch your head losses yet, other than NDSU/USD. I honestly think there may be a 6 win team in the playoffs this year.

[BisonBacker]

I think this year may be the year to have a lot of 7 win teams in the MVFC. There really isn't anyone in the list with scratch your head losses yet, other than NDSU/USD. I honestly think there may be a 6 win team in the playoffs this year.

Not going to happen.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I think the only way a 6 win team gets in is if there aren't enough 7 win teams to fill the field. In which case the 6 win team would come from the MVFC more than likely.

[Professor Chaos]

I think this year may be the year to have a lot of 7 win teams in the MVFC. There really isn't anyone in the list with scratch your head losses yet, other than NDSU/USD. I honestly think there may be a 6 win team in the playoffs this year.


Not going to happen.
Idk, it would be quite the debate if it comes down to the last spot going between someone like UNI at 6-5 and someone like The Citadel at 7-4. It's a pretty weak bubble right now. As was alluded to in another thread not only did the MEAC autobid open up another at large spot but it's far less likely the MEAC will get an at-large bid either now which they've been known to get in the past with some very iffy bubble teams.

Of course who should get in isn't always who does get in. We'll see.

[ST_Lawson]

I suppose UNI SIU and YSU are having playoffs now, WIU USD and ISUb start playoffs after their next loss.

Essentially, yea. 1 loss for UNI, SIU, or YSU means they can only get to 6 wins and would be highly unlikely to make the playoffs. Same with 2 losses for WIU, USD, and ISUb.

If you consider ISUr, NDSU, and SDSU as the conference "front-runners"...of the three 4-3 teams, probably ISUb has the easiest route (not that anyone's route is "easy" in the MVFC) having to play only one of those in their upcoming 4 weeks (vs ISUr this weekend). WIU still has NDSU and SDSU, USD still has SDSU and ISUr, but nobody has it easy. None of the 4-3 teams get a game against MSU in the final 4 weeks, so no week is a "easy" win for anyone.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Essentially, yea. 1 loss for UNI, SIU, or YSU means they can only get to 6 wins and would be highly unlikely to make the playoffs. Same with 2 losses for WIU, USD, and ISUb.

If you consider ISUr, NDSU, and SDSU as the conference "front-runners"...of the three 4-3 teams, probably ISUb has the easiest route (not that anyone's route is "easy" in the MVFC) having to play only one of those in their upcoming 4 weeks (vs ISUr this weekend). WIU still has NDSU and SDSU, USD still has SDSU and ISUr, but nobody has it easy. None of the 4-3 teams get a game against MSU in the final 4 weeks, so no week is a "easy" win for anyone.

I would say out the the 4-3 teams that WIU might have it easiest. Then ISUb. USD I think has it the toughest. Although ISUb and WIU probably have very similar routes. I don't see USD getting to 7-4.

[ST_Lawson]

I would say out the the 4-3 teams that WIU might have it easiest. Then ISUb. USD I think has it the toughest. Although ISUb and WIU probably have very similar routes. I don't see USD getting to 7-4.

According to the Massey ratings, you're right.
WIU is favored in two of the 4 upcoming games (YSU & ISUb) and not a horrible chance vs SDSU (42%).
ISUb's best chances are against WIU (40%) and YSU (41%)...ISUr and UNI are both under 20% chance.
USD's best chance is against SIU (39%) with UNI, SDSU, and ISU all under 20% chance.

It also depends on what teams do when they're essentially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If we win against YSU this weekend, they're effectively out of the playoffs and that could affect how they play against ISUb...do they go "all-out" since they're only playing for pride and have nothing to lose...or do they start putting in more younger kids, getting them game experience for next year?

[Yote 53]

For USD I look at it like this, we're a Dome team. 3 out of the last 4 are in Domes with 2 at home against SIU and SDSU, one on the road at UNI, and on the road outdoors at ISUr. It actually sets up best that SIU is at home and ISUr is on the road because the chances of beating the Redbirds are slim anyways. I'm confident the Yotes can win their Dome games. Will they? WHo knows, just saying I am confident they have a decent chance in each of those games. 3-1 should get USD in the playoffs. How about that for a turnaround? Of course it could all crash down this Saturday in the Cedar Valley is we don't beat UNI.

[Sycamore62]

According to the Massey ratings, you're right.
WIU is favored in two of the 4 upcoming games (YSU & ISUb) and not a horrible chance vs SDSU (42%).
ISUb's best chances are against WIU (40%) and YSU (41%)...ISUr and UNI are both under 20% chance.
USD's best chance is against SIU (39%) with UNI, SDSU, and ISU all under 20% chance.

It also depends on what teams do when they're essentially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If we win against YSU this weekend, they're effectively out of the playoffs and that could affect how they play against ISUb...do they go "all-out" since they're only playing for pride and have nothing to lose...or do they start putting in more younger kids, getting them game experience for next year?

Huge IF here. We havent had Underwood all season basically and Im praying that Sewall is back for the last game or 2. Both game changers for us. Im not sure we have a prayer vs ISUr. I have no idea what to expect against UNI (both road games). We finish those last 2 games vs WIU then YSU at home. I would only be a little surprised if we were to go 4-0 or 0-4. Our O-line needs to improve but I doubt that's going to happen all of the sudden so we really need a strong defense or the 0-4 might be more probable.

[F'N Hawks]

I see NDSU has dropped from a 6.5 pt favorite to 3.5. Can't remember the last time they were this low of a fav.

[UNIFanSince1983]

It also depends on what teams do when they're essentially mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If we win against YSU this weekend, they're effectively out of the playoffs and that could affect how they play against ISUb...do they go "all-out" since they're only playing for pride and have nothing to lose...or do they start putting in more younger kids, getting them game experience for next year?

Yeah this is the biggest question. How do teams respond when eliminated? This was the wildcard in the whole thing.

[Professor Chaos]

I see NDSU has dropped from a 6.5 pt favorite to 3.5. Can't remember the last time they were this low of a fav.
That would be against SDSU 4 weeks ago.

[F'N Hawks]

That would be against SDSU 4 weeks ago.

Did it get that low? Bad memory, thought it was 6.

[Professor Chaos]

Did it get that low? Bad memory, thought it was 6.
I believe it settled in at around NDSU -1.5 or -2. There was some chatter about it in that game thread. I'll see if I can find it.

EDIT: Hit NDSU -2 the morning before the game: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?174740-SDSU-NDSU&p=2259194&viewfull=1#post2259194

So maybe this is a good thing :D

[Bisonator]

What's the MVFC OOC record this season and per team? Too lazy to look it up.

I have a hard time seeing a 6-5 team make the field. There will be many more 7-4 teams to choose from and we've seen the committee favor record versus SOS before. The only way a 6-5 team would make it over a 7-4 team IMO is if they have a H2H win or wins over common opponents.

[UNIFanSince1983]

UNI is 2-1 in OOC games this year with the only loss being to FBS Iowa State.

[Yote 53]

USD is 2-1 OOC this season with wins over UC-Davis and Drake and a loss to FBS Kansas State.

[cpacmel]

What's the MVFC OOC record this season and per team? Too lazy to look it up.


MVFC was 17-12 OOC vs DI (mo state has a win vs. Non Div I - Chadron State)


South Dakota State 3-0

Illinois State 2-1
NDSU 2-1
South Dakota 2-1
Indy State 2-1
YSU 2-1
UNI 2-1

WIU 1-2
SIU 1-2
Mo State 1-2 (win was Non DI)

[ST_Lawson]

WIU is 1-2:
33-5 win over Eastern IL (AGS #34)
44-0 ugly loss at Illinois
34-27 close loss at Coastal Carolina (AGS #3)

[RabidRabbit]

NDSU loss to USD could readily lose the wtf thought if USD finishes at 4-4 MVFC, and 6-5 with only FBS loss in ooc.

[REALBird]

Illinois State 2-1

L vs. Iowa (#10/#11) 31-14
W vs. Morgan State (NR)
W @ EIU (AGS #34)

[JayJ79]

I highly doubt we'll see a 6-5 team getting an at-large. If anything, the "6 win" thing was put in place to allow the committee the flexibility to put in a 7-4 team who played a D2 game.

[Rabbit74]

MVFC was 17-12 OOC vs DI (mo state has a win vs. Non Div I - Chadron State)


South Dakota State 3-0

Illinois State 2-1
NDSU 2-1
South Dakota 2-1
Indy State 2-1
YSU 2-1
UNI 2-1

WIU 1-2
SIU 1-2
Mo State 1-2 (win was Non DI)

More important probably is that the MVFC is 16-3 in OCC games agains FCS teams. SDSU is the only one to beat an FBS team out of 10 FBS opponents.

[Missingnumber7]

SDSU is the only one to beat an FBS team out of 10 FBS opponents.

8 teams played 9 FBS opponents (Mo St played Memphis and Arkansas St.

[JayJ79]

8 teams played 9 FBS opponents (Mo St played Memphis and Arkansas St.

9 teams played 10 FBS opponents:
ILS @ Iowa
INS @ Purdue
MSU @ Memphis
MSU @ Arkansas State
UNI @ Iowa State
USD @ Kansas State
SDSU @ Kansas
SIU @ Indiana
WIU @ Illinois
YSU @ Pittsburgh

[Twentysix]

You've got to take it one week at a time. USD vs UNI is the next game on the schedule. It's a knock out game, loser is out of playoff contention. Conventional wisdom says UNI should win but USD is riding high right now and you couldn't ask for a more comfortable setting if you are a Coyote than the UNI Dome. Doesn't take much to get used to the sister-building.

I'm rooting for you guys to play spoiler the rest of the season! Go Yotes! (especially beat ISUr)

[Sycamore62]

I'm rooting for you guys to play spoiler the rest of the season! Go Yotes! (especially beat ISUr)

In theory, if we won out @ISUr, @UNI, WIU, YSU we could be the win that ends each teams playoff hopes or ends a team's shot at sole MVFC champion.

[Missingnumber7]

9 teams played 10 FBS opponents:
ILS @ Iowa
INS @ Purdue
MSU @ Memphis
MSU @ Arkansas State
UNI @ Iowa State
USD @ Kansas State
SDSU @ Kansas
SIU @ Indiana
WIU @ Illinois
YSU @ Pittsburgh

Dang, knew my spreadsheet was missing a game somewhere.

[Yote 53]

I'm rooting for you guys to play spoiler the rest of the season! Go Yotes! (especially beat ISUr)

Spoiler? If we win out we're in the playoffs and maybe in contention for a share of the conference with a 6-2 record. Please, do cheer for the Yotes!

[CappinHard]

Spoiler? If we win out we're in the playoffs and maybe in contention for a share of the conference with a 6-2 record. Please, do cheer for the Yotes!

Silly coyotes... you don't have a chance at the playoffs, winning out, or a share of the conference. Have fun being planted firmly back to earth after your date with UNI this weekend. It's cute how much hope the NDSU win has given you though. I actually hope you win your next two games and think you have a chance at the playoffs, only to have your dreams crushed by big brother on November 14th. xsmiley_wix

[Yote 53]

If anybody's dreams are going to be crushed on November 14th it will be the Bunnies in blue and yellow.

Go Big, Go Blue, Go Home!

[Professor Chaos]

Week 9 saw one team (SIU) eliminated from playoff contention but there's still 8 MVFC teams with playoff aspirations. The top 3 have separated themselves and the other 5 are all very likely only one loss away from being out of contention. It's very possible the conference only gets 3 bids if the 4 loss teams beat up equally on each other and can't steal any games from the top 3. I ordered the teams according to what I think is the easiest road to the playoffs to the toughest.


Locks

None yet.


Should be in

Illinois St 7-1 (5-0)
Quality wins: UNI, WIU, @YSU, ISUb
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @SDSU, @SIU, USD
The Redbirds did what they needed to do but it wasn't pretty against a gritty Indiana St team. Winning one more would lock them in but next week in Brookings looks to be their final and biggest test of the regular season. They're trending towards a top 2 seed right now.

North Dakota St 6-2 (4-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU, UNI, @ISUb
Bad losses: USD
Remaining games: WIU, @YSU, MSU
The Bison did what they needed to do winning in Carbondale and eliminating SIU but I still have a feeling that the USD loss is going to come back to bite the Bison if not in terms of making playoffs in terms of seeding/1st round bye. One more loss and I'm not sure they'll be able to get back into the seeds but if they can run the table they'll likely get back into the top 4 and their schedule is manageable in relation to a lot of conference peers. They still need at least one more win to lock in their playoff spot.

South Dakota St 6-2 (3-2)
Quality wins: @KU, SUU, ISUb, @YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUr, @USD, @WIU
The Jacks have a huge home matchup looming with Illinois St and their hopes for a seed may hinge on that game. Their strong nonconference resume should help them alot if they drop another game or two. I think they're in with 1 more win, if they take 2 I think they still have a shot at a seed, and if they win all 3 they'll certainly be seeded, likely in the top 4. They've got a tough 3 game stretch to end the season however but USD and WIU may be eliminated by the time they face them on the road.


On the bubble

Northern Iowa 4-4 (2-3)
Quality wins: EWU, @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUb, @MSU, SIU
All of a sudden the Panthers have the easiest route to the playoffs of all the MVFC bubble teams with 2 of their last 3 against the only two MVFC squads eliminated from contention. They should be favored in all 3 of their final games but they'll basically be playing an elimination game next week when Indiana St comes to the UNI-Dome. They seem to be good for at least one head scratching loss per year though which they haven't gotten yet but I think of all these teams they have the best chance of making it into the field with 6 D1 wins although it's unlikely anyone makes it with only 6 wins this year.


Must win out

Youngstown St 4-4 (2-3)
Quality wins: @WIU
Bad losses: @SIU
Remaining games: MSU, NDSU, @ISUb
The Penguins stayed alive with a huge road win at WIU. They now have a couple home games including a gimme against MSU to keep them alive as they need to win out to get in. The last two will be tough but they've got the ability to pull it off if they can avoid the November swoon that plagued them during the Wolford era.

Indiana St 4-4 (2-3)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @UNI, WIU, YSU
Indiana St very nearly pulled off a season defining win at Illinois St but now they find themselves in a must win scenario in their last three. They haven't lost any bad games but they haven't won any good ones either. Every team left on their schedule is also fighting for their playoff lives so they'll have their work cut out for them.

South Dakota 4-4 (2-3)
Quality wins: @NDSU
Bad losses: YSU
Reamining games: SIU, SDSU, @ISUr
Winning at UNI wasn't a must for USD but failing to do so makes things extremely hard on them as they'll need to win out now which is a tall order with their remaining schedule and without their star RB Bouma. They do get their next two at home but regardless it's a suprise they're even still in playoff contention as the calendar turns to November.

Western Illinois 4-4 (3-2)
Quality wins: @UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @NDSU, @ISUb, SDSU
Quite simply the Leathernecks needed to hold serve and beat Youngstown St at home but couldn't do it. Now they'll need to win out to get in and their remaining schedule is incredibly tough starting with a roadtrip to the Fargodome next Saturday.


Out of contention

Southern Illinois 3-5 (2-3) - The Salukis were knocked out of contention by the Bison this week but they've got the ability to play spoiler down the stretch for teams still in contention.
Missouri St 1-7 (0-5) - This team might've been out of contention by mid-September.

[BisonTru]

I wouldn't call SIU out. If they win out they'd have wins against UNI and ISUr. That'd be an impressive resume for a 6-5 squad.

Certainly wouldn't be a lock, but they'd be in the conversation.

[centennial]

3 teams from the MVFC is what we are looking at, hopefully we can make it to 4

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Ill State
NDSU
SDSU

These 3 will get into the playoffs IMO. UNI is in if they run the table.

[Professor Chaos]

I wouldn't call SIU out. If they win out they'd have wins against UNI and ISUr. That'd be an impressive resume for a 6-5 squad.

Certainly wouldn't be a lock, but they'd be in the conversation.
Except their win against UNI would likely eliminate the Panthers from contention so that's a catch 22 situation there. It's possible they could make a good argument if YSU wins out because they could point to that win also.

Overall I think a 6-5 team is going to need something OOC to convince the selection committee they deserve inclusion and the only teams with those type of quality wins outside of conference are SDSU (who shouldn't have to worry about it) and UNI in my opinion. But if UNI loses to another MVFC team that's also ends up at 6-5 their hopes take a big hit I think.

[BisonTru]

Except their win against UNI would likely eliminate the Panthers from contention so that's a catch 22 situation there. It's possible they could make a good argument if YSU wins out because they could point to that win also.

Overall I think a 6-5 team is going to need something OOC to convince the selection committee they deserve inclusion and the only teams with those type of quality wins outside of conference are SDSU (who shouldn't have to worry about it) and UNI in my opinion. But if UNI loses to another MVFC team that's also ends up at 6-5 their hopes take a big hit I think.

l agree its a long shot, but it all comes down to the bubble. Trying to put together my first bracket of the year, it came down to a couple 6-5 teams with some good wins, a couple 7-4 teams with no good wins, and some 8-3, 9-2 Meac, Swac schools.

I could see the committee going in any three of those directions.

It's also possible that a few of those projected 7-4 teams drop another game and the committee has no other direction outside of considering 6-5 squads. That's of course if the committee doesn't add an 8-3 MEAC team, yuck.

[centennial]

l agree its a long shot, but it all comes down to the bubble. Trying to put together my first bracket of the year, it came down to a couple 6-5 teams with some good wins, a couple 7-4 teams with no good wins, and some 8-3, 9-2 Meac, Swac schools.

I could see the committee going in any three of those directions.

It's also possible that a few of those projected 7-4 teams drop another game and the committee has no other direction outside of considering 6-5 squads. That's of course if the committee doesn't add an 8-3 MEAC team, yuck.
I can imagine the amount of bitching if we get a 6-5 MVFC over 9-2 MEAC.

[FargoBison]

A 6-5 MVFC team is never getting into the playoffs unless I guess a 6-5 team wins the autobid.

[Professor Chaos]

A 6-5 MVFC team is never getting into the playoffs unless I guess a 6-5 team wins the autobid.
Similar things were said about a 5 loss team never making it last year and Indiana St snuck in at 7-5. There's 14 at large bids now which is more than there's ever been so I don't think you can absolutely say a 6-5 team has no shot without seeing what the rest of the bubble looks like. Looking at what the 20-25 ranked teams are this week there's going to be some 4-4 teams in there so I don't think it's out of line to think there won't be 6-5 teams in those same spots in 3 weeks. I agree that it's a long shot but I hope the playoff selection committee doesn't automatically discount a team that is 6-5 but compares them fairly with teams with more wins overall but lower quality and lower SOS.

[BisonTru]

Fordham losing today means Colgate's in the driver's for the PL auto. Does Fordham get an at large? Certainly adds another team to the discussion and 6-5 squad doesn't want to see a crowded bubble.

Also, a 6-5 UNI probably has the best resume of the MVFC teams, but Dannon is the MVFC rep. So, he can't argue or vote for UNI, but he could for say a 6-5 YSU or SIU.

When I first started looking into the bracket process a few years ago, I initially thought having your AD as the conference rep was a huge advantage. But when you dig a little further, it's the complete opposite.

[Jackal]

If SDSU would trip over it and lose out,they would have a good 6-5 resume.

[BisonTru]

If SDSU would trip over it and lose out,they would have a good 6-5 resume.

I didn't include you guys cuz I doubt you put yourself in that situation.xthumbsupx

[JayJ79]

A 6-5 MVFC team is never getting into the playoffs unless I guess a 6-5 team wins the autobid.

If a 6-5 MVFC team this year can't make it, I don't think there will ever be a 6-5 team getting an at-large.
(that being said, I wouldn't hold my breath on a 6-5 team getting in. Yes, they may have officially dropped the number to 6 D-I wins, but that's probably only to allow them to include some team that goes 7-4 with one of those wins being over a D2 or transitional)

[Professor Chaos]

Fordham losing today means Colgate's in the driver's for the PL auto. Does Fordham get an at large? Certainly adds another team to the discussion and 6-5 squad doesn't want to see a crowded bubble.

Also, a 6-5 UNI probably has the best resume of the MVFC teams, but Dannon is the MVFC rep. So, he can't argue or vote for UNI, but he could for say a 6-5 YSU or SIU.

When I first started looking into the bracket process a few years ago, I initially thought having your AD as the conference rep was a huge advantage. But when you dig a little further, it's the complete opposite.
Doesn't the conference rep have to leave if any team from their conference is being discussed?

[BisonTru]

Doesn't the conference rep have to leave if any team from their conference is being discussed?

No, just their own team. If your conference rep is the commissioner or someone from the conference office they can't argue for any team from the conference.

[FargoBison]

Fordham losing today means Colgate's in the driver's for the PL auto. Does Fordham get an at large? Certainly adds another team to the discussion and 6-5 squad doesn't want to see a crowded bubble.

Also, a 6-5 UNI probably has the best resume of the MVFC teams, but Dannon is the MVFC rep. So, he can't argue or vote for UNI, but he could for say a 6-5 YSU or SIU.

When I first started looking into the bracket process a few years ago, I initially thought having your AD as the conference rep was a huge advantage. But when you dig a little further, it's the complete opposite.

Fordham wins out and they are a lock to get an at-large.

[Bisonwinagn]

Charleston Southern is a near lock to win the Big South with their win over coastal today. Another at large bid lost.

[Bisonwinagn]

NDSU is in position to potentially knock SIU, WIU, and YSU out of the playoffs in consecutive weeks. Makes those game that much more difficult.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Fordham losing today means Colgate's in the driver's for the PL auto. Does Fordham get an at large? Certainly adds another team to the discussion and 6-5 squad doesn't want to see a crowded bubble.

Also, a 6-5 UNI probably has the best resume of the MVFC teams, but Dannon is the MVFC rep. So, he can't argue or vote for UNI, but he could for say a 6-5 YSU or SIU.

When I first started looking into the bracket process a few years ago, I initially thought having your AD as the conference rep was a huge advantage. But when you dig a little further, it's the complete opposite.

There's also a chance there could be a 3-way tie in the PL with Lehigh, Fordham and Colgate all finishing 5-1. Not sure the tie-breakers in that one...

Fordham's pretty good but they'll be right on the fringe even at 9-2. They've actually regressed some the last couple of years after peaking in 2013 imo.

I can see the PL rep beating the NEC champ then getting clobbered in the second round. A 6-5 MVFC team might be more worthy. And I think the MVFC, while still the best league, is not as deep top to bottom as recent editions.

The PL is real dicey this year. Although it is interesting that as the calendar turns to November the old guard of Lehigh and Colgate are emerging. Lehigh has a tough game this week given their defense...

[Houndawg]

I wouldn't call SIU out. If they win out they'd have wins against UNI and ISUr. That'd be an impressive resume for a 6-5 squad.

Certainly wouldn't be a lock, but they'd be in the conversation.

We give up 36 ppg, we're out.

[penguinpower]

Meanwhile UNI and YSU are scratching and clawing to hang on.

[Daved]

YSU better not overlook MSU like they did in 2011 at home with the playoffs on the line--MSU brought a 1-9 record into that game and pulled the upset.They need to keep in mind that MSU is a better team than Robert Morris.

[ValleyTalk]

Week 9 saw one team (SIU) eliminated from playoff contention but there's still 8 MVFC teams with playoff aspirations. The top 3 have separated themselves and the other 5 are all very likely only one loss away from being out of contention. It's very possible the conference only gets 3 bids if the 4 loss teams beat up equally on each other and can't steal any games from the top 3. I ordered the teams according to what I think is the easiest road to the playoffs to the toughest.


Locks

None yet.


Should be in

Illinois St 7-1 (5-0)
Quality wins: UNI, WIU, @YSU, ISUb
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @SDSU, @SIU, USD
The Redbirds did what they needed to do but it wasn't pretty against a gritty Indiana St team. Winning one more would lock them in but next week in Brookings looks to be their final and biggest test of the regular season. They're trending towards a top 2 seed right now.

North Dakota St 6-2 (4-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU, UNI, @ISUb
Bad losses: USD
Remaining games: WIU, @YSU, MSU
The Bison did what they needed to do winning in Carbondale and eliminating SIU but I still have a feeling that the USD loss is going to come back to bite the Bison if not in terms of making playoffs in terms of seeding/1st round bye. One more loss and I'm not sure they'll be able to get back into the seeds but if they can run the table they'll likely get back into the top 4 and their schedule is manageable in relation to a lot of conference peers. They still need at least one more win to lock in their playoff spot.

South Dakota St 6-2 (3-2)
Quality wins: @KU, SUU, ISUb, @YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUr, @USD, @WIU
The Jacks have a huge home matchup looming with Illinois St and their hopes for a seed may hinge on that game. Their strong nonconference resume should help them alot if they drop another game or two. I think they're in with 1 more win, if they take 2 I think they still have a shot at a seed, and if they win all 3 they'll certainly be seeded, likely in the top 4. They've got a tough 3 game stretch to end the season however but USD and WIU may be eliminated by the time they face them on the road.


On the bubble

Northern Iowa 4-4 (2-3)
Quality wins: EWU, @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: ISUb, @MSU, SIU
All of a sudden the Panthers have the easiest route to the playoffs of all the MVFC bubble teams with 2 of their last 3 against the only two MVFC squads eliminated from contention. They should be favored in all 3 of their final games but they'll basically be playing an elimination game next week when Indiana St comes to the UNI-Dome. They seem to be good for at least one head scratching loss per year though which they haven't gotten yet but I think of all these teams they have the best chance of making it into the field with 6 D1 wins although it's unlikely anyone makes it with only 6 wins this year.


Must win out

Youngstown St 4-4 (2-3)
Quality wins: @WIU
Bad losses: @SIU
Remaining games: MSU, NDSU, @ISUb
The Penguins stayed alive with a huge road win at WIU. They now have a couple home games including a gimme against MSU to keep them alive as they need to win out to get in. The last two will be tough but they've got the ability to pull it off if they can avoid the November swoon that plagued them during the Wolford era.

Indiana St 4-4 (2-3)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @UNI, WIU, YSU
Indiana St very nearly pulled off a season defining win at Illinois St but now they find themselves in a must win scenario in their last three. They haven't lost any bad games but they haven't won any good ones either. Every team left on their schedule is also fighting for their playoff lives so they'll have their work cut out for them.

South Dakota 4-4 (2-3)
Quality wins: @NDSU
Bad losses: YSU
Reamining games: SIU, SDSU, @ISUr
Winning at UNI wasn't a must for USD but failing to do so makes things extremely hard on them as they'll need to win out now which is a tall order with their remaining schedule and without their star RB Bouma. They do get their next two at home but regardless it's a suprise they're even still in playoff contention as the calendar turns to November.

Western Illinois 4-4 (3-2)
Quality wins: @UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @NDSU, @ISUb, SDSU
Quite simply the Leathernecks needed to hold serve and beat Youngstown St at home but couldn't do it. Now they'll need to win out to get in and their remaining schedule is incredibly tough starting with a roadtrip to the Fargodome next Saturday.


Out of contention

Southern Illinois 3-5 (2-3) - The Salukis were knocked out of contention by the Bison this week but they've got the ability to play spoiler down the stretch for teams still in contention.
Missouri St 1-7 (0-5) - This team might've been out of contention by mid-September.

Just out of curiosity, how do you consider UNI "on-the-bubble" with a 4-4 (2-3) record, but then go ahead and say YSU, INSU, USD, and WIU all must "win-out?" Should UNI not also be in the "win-out" category?

Other than that, nice work with the analysis!

[Cocky]

ISUr should be a lock. Should be in even if they lose the last three, which they wont.

[Professor Chaos]

Just out of curiosity, how do you consider UNI "on-the-bubble" with a 4-4 (2-3) record, but then go ahead and say YSU, INSU, USD, and WIU all must "win-out?" Should UNI not also be in the "win-out" category?

Other than that, nice work with the analysis!
I consider UNI at the top of the heap right now amongst 4 loss teams with two really good wins at SDSU and vs EWU that are better than any two wins the other 4 loss teams have. I think due to that UNI would have the best shot to be considered at 6-5 but, as has been discussed previously in the thread, it's unlikely any team at 6-5 gets in. I just submitted my poll for the week though and right now I can say that there is a complete mess between teams 16-25 right now and a good chunk of teams in that range are going to make the playoff with 14 at large selections. I think there's going to be a 6-5 MVFC team or two in that range by the end of the year. The question will be whether the committee values good wins and strength of schedule over lack of losses and weaker wins. We'll see.


ISUr should be a lock. Should be in even if they lose the last three, which they wont.
Yeah, you're probably right but the selection committee has shown before with teams like YSU in 2013, who was in the top 5 before dropping their last 3 to finish 8-4, that they don't like it if a team implodes in November. Like you said it's highly unlikely Illinois St will do that so they could just as well be a lock.

[birdsflyhigh]

Guess the hitch I can see with these playoff MVFC rankings is what is considered a bad loss. IMHO only MSU would be considered a bad loss. You give any FCS team outside the Valley a loss to the top 9 MVFC teams and that would NOT be considered a bad loss by any means. The top 9 teams in the MVFC are rated in the top 35 FCS....ergo NOT a bad loss.

Just an observation, otherwise a pretty cool breakdown of the teams.

[RabidRabbit]

YSU can't be both a good win (SDSU), and a bad loss (USD). I would agree, top 9 MVFC teams shouldn't be considered "bad".

[Thumper 76]

Interesting tidbit, SDSU will be tearing down the rest of CAS after next week. So any playoff games will be in Sioux Falls at Howard Wood field.

[UNIFanSince1983]

USD would also have to be a bad loss in the MVFC this year again. I know they beat NDSU, but they are just not a real good team this year again.

[birdsflyhigh]

Would have to disagree with the idea of USD being a bad loss. The Coyotes in all likelihood will finish in the FCS top 35 which puts them in the top 30 percent of all of FCS. Now we as MVFC fans might consider USD to not be a quality team relative to the conference, but that is on us. The Coyotes look quite favorable in the national FCS rankings (just not so high in the Valley rankings). So no USD should NOT be considered a bad loss.

[centennial]

USD would also have to be a bad loss in the MVFC this year again. I know they beat NDSU, but they are just not a real good team this year again.
I agree. USD is a bad loss. However, they aren't terrible like they used to be. They have swapped with Misery State. We still get a lot of best efforts, teams can play up when we are playing down- then we get Montana, or USD.

[Professor Chaos]

YSU can't be both a good win (SDSU), and a bad loss (USD). I would agree, top 9 MVFC teams shouldn't be considered "bad".
That's moreso due to the margins of the game and the location. SDSU beat YSU by 30 in Youngstown while USD lost to YSU by 28 in Vermillion. Youngstown may fall off of the "quality win" category IMO if they drop another game. For the time being I put pretty much any win outside of those against MSU, SIU, and USD as quality wins but that's going to change depending on what happens down the stretch.


USD would also have to be a bad loss in the MVFC this year again. I know they beat NDSU, but they are just not a real good team this year again.
Agreed, for the time being I'm counting any win against one of the 4-4 teams as a quality win except for wins against USD. That most definitely a bad loss for NDSU given that it happened in Fargo.

[clenz]

I agree. USD is a bad loss. However, they aren't terrible like they used to be. They have swapped with Misery State. We still get a lot of best efforts, teams can play up when we are playing down- then we get Montana, or USD.

The USD I saw yesterday was every bit as bad as past years. MiseryState is just really that bad.

I can't believe that USD team beat NDSU. 187 yards of offense with 81 on their only scoring drive.


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[Thundar]

The USD I saw yesterday was every bit as bad as past years. MiseryState is just really that bad.

I can't believe that USD team beat NDSU. 187 yards of offense with 81 on their only scoring drive.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

nobody can believe it, but it's exactly what happens the a young group gets big egos and look down to an opponent

[centennial]

nobody can believe it, but it's exactly what happens the a young group gets big egos and look down to an opponent
Our coaches as well. We were winning easy and changed our scheme after the 1st quarter so we could experiment. No respect to USD.

[clenz]

Our coaches as well. We were winning easy and changed our scheme after the 1st quarter so we could experiment. No respect to USD.
That's something UNI didn't do. The way the UNI defense attacked USDs offense was crazy.

Then again UNI is already in playoff mode.

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[JayJ79]

Interesting tidbit, SDSU will be tearing down the rest of CAS after next week. So any playoff games will be in Sioux Falls at Howard Wood field.

or would that preclude them from even bidding to host a playoff game?

[No_Skill]

Not to mention Wentz played the second half with a broken hand.

[Thumper 76]

or would that preclude them from even bidding to host a playoff game?

Not according to Justin Sell. Seemed to me they would still bid just have the games in Sioux Falls. I would imagine the bids wouldn't be as large unless the Sioux Falls Sports Authority wanted to chip in.

[centennial]

Not to mention Wentz played the second half with a broken hand.
He broke his hand on the 2nd series of the game if I remember right. 3 quarters with a broken hand. I don't like making excuses but that game reminded me of the Montana game, we tried to lose really hard, and were successful.

[Thundar]

He broke his hand on the 2nd series of the game if I remember right. 3 quarters with a broken hand. I don't like making excuses but that game reminded me of the Montana game, we tried to lose really hard, and were successful.

a 14 point lead should have been enough to win, Wentz and that injury had zero to do with the mental state of the team that day

[BisonFan02]

Career 100 yard rushing games at the QB position:

Easton Stick - 2
Brock Jensen - 0

****s getting pretty cray around here....with how many RBs are on the depth chart, it might be time to bring back the veer.... :D xlolx

[Bisonwinagn]

That's something UNI didn't do. The way the UNI defense attacked USDs offense was crazy.

Then again UNI is already in playoff mode.

Sent from my SM-T230NU using Tapatalk

How well did UNI play the week after the NDSU game? Both teams had a let down after that big game.

[clenz]

How well did UNI play the week after the NDSU game? Both teams had a let down after that big game.
UNI lost by 1 score to a likely playoff team that's been in the top 25

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[Yote 53]

I guess I don't understand the USD hate from UNI. Panther fans are saying it was the same old USD, couldn't do anything on offense. Did you ever stop to think that maybe the UNI defense is playing on another level right now? Lights out D is what I saw from UNI. If USD sucks so bad and our offense is so pathetic then what does that make SDSU? UNI's D shut them down cold too.

Maybe it is as simple as UNI has hit their groove, their defense is leading the way, and would make any MVFC team look bad right now.

As for USD, it was tough sledding for the offense. If we can't get a running game established then the production falls entirely on our QB. Sometimes he rises to the occasion (NDSU), sometimes he doesn't (every other conference loss). SO basically our young QB had a great game against the Bison and that is why the Coyotes won. For the most part the Coyote defense has battled all year. Holding UNI to 6 second half points was pretty decent. Where the USD defense gets chewed up (YSU, WIU) is when the offense leaves them hanging out to dry adn on the field too long.

Anyways, we'll find out about the Coyotes the next 3 weeks. SIU is going to be a dogfight of a game (get it? Salukis vs Coyotes). The home finale against SDSU is going to be intense no matter what. If the Coyotes can hold at home and gut out those two wins there will be a lot to play for in the trip to ISUr. I highly doubt the Coyotes can beat the Redbirds on the road, but I also never thought they could beat the Bison in Fargo. I'm just going to wait and see what happens on Saturday. I'm not really thinking playoffs for the Coyotes, I just want a 4-4 Valley record and that starts with a win against the Salukis. A 4-4 record should at least get us a little conference respect, which frankly means a whole lot more to me than the FCS playoffs. Shocking way to think about that but I view the MVFC as the premier FCS conference in the country. You go 4-4 in this league and, IMO, you are one of the 10-15 best teams in the country and basically a pick 'em against any other FCS conference champ.

[jacksfan29]

SDSU put up 177 in the 2nd half. USD 187 the entire game. Yes, UNI shut our offense down; but they pummeled the USD offense.

That being said, I don't see USD as being a bad loss. They will finish in the top 35 this year, possible top 30. Take into consideration that our "friends" to the north (NoDaks) are still in playoff consideration, sitting in the 50 range in GPI. If USD were in the BSC this year they would be a top 4 team and in the running for a playoff spot.


I guess I don't understand the USD hate from UNI. Panther fans are saying it was the same old USD, couldn't do anything on offense. Did you ever stop to think that maybe the UNI defense is playing on another level right now? Lights out D is what I saw from UNI. If USD sucks so bad and our offense is so pathetic then what does that make SDSU? UNI's D shut them down cold too.

Maybe it is as simple as UNI has hit their groove, their defense is leading the way, and would make any MVFC team look bad right now.

As for USD, it was tough sledding for the offense. If we can't get a running game established then the production falls entirely on our QB. Sometimes he rises to the occasion (NDSU), sometimes he doesn't (every other conference loss). SO basically our young QB had a great game against the Bison and that is why the Coyotes won. For the most part the Coyote defense has battled all year. Holding UNI to 6 second half points was pretty decent. Where the USD defense gets chewed up (YSU, WIU) is when the offense leaves them hanging out to dry adn on the field too long.

Anyways, we'll find out about the Coyotes the next 3 weeks. SIU is going to be a dogfight of a game (get it? Salukis vs Coyotes). The home finale against SDSU is going to be intense no matter what. If the Coyotes can hold at home and gut out those two wins there will be a lot to play for in the trip to ISUr. I highly doubt the Coyotes can beat the Redbirds on the road, but I also never thought they could beat the Bison in Fargo. I'm just going to wait and see what happens on Saturday. I'm not really thinking playoffs for the Coyotes, I just want a 4-4 Valley record and that starts with a win against the Salukis. A 4-4 record should at least get us a little conference respect, which frankly means a whole lot more to me than the FCS playoffs. Shocking way to think about that but I view the MVFC as the premier FCS conference in the country. You go 4-4 in this league and, IMO, you are one of the 10-15 best teams in the country and basically a pick 'em against any other FCS conference champ.

[clenz]

I guess I don't understand the USD hate from UNI. Panther fans are saying it was the same old USD, couldn't do anything on offense. Did you ever stop to think that maybe the UNI defense is playing on another level right now? Lights out D is what I saw from UNI. If USD sucks so bad and our offense is so pathetic then what does that make SDSU? UNI's D shut them down cold too.

Maybe it is as simple as UNI has hit their groove, their defense is leading the way, and would make any MVFC team look bad right now.

As for USD, it was tough sledding for the offense. If we can't get a running game established then the production falls entirely on our QB. Sometimes he rises to the occasion (NDSU), sometimes he doesn't (every other conference loss). SO basically our young QB had a great game against the Bison and that is why the Coyotes won. For the most part the Coyote defense has battled all year. Holding UNI to 6 second half points was pretty decent. Where the USD defense gets chewed up (YSU, WIU) is when the offense leaves them hanging out to dry adn on the field too long.

Anyways, we'll find out about the Coyotes the next 3 weeks. SIU is going to be a dogfight of a game (get it? Salukis vs Coyotes). The home finale against SDSU is going to be intense no matter what. If the Coyotes can hold at home and gut out those two wins there will be a lot to play for in the trip to ISUr. I highly doubt the Coyotes can beat the Redbirds on the road, but I also never thought they could beat the Bison in Fargo. I'm just going to wait and see what happens on Saturday. I'm not really thinking playoffs for the Coyotes, I just want a 4-4 Valley record and that starts with a win against the Salukis. A 4-4 record should at least get us a little conference respect, which frankly means a whole lot more to me than the FCS playoffs. Shocking way to think about that but I view the MVFC as the premier FCS conference in the country. You go 4-4 in this league and, IMO, you are one of the 10-15 best teams in the country and basically a pick 'em against any other FCS conference champ.
UNI's defense has been the same for quite some time. There was an absolute derth of play makers and athleticism for USD. There wasn't a single player that scared me as a fan. 187 yards of offense...61 in the final three quarters. SDSU was at least competitive with that defense. USD got to face the defense in the perfect conditions of a 70* UNIDome. SDSU had to run an offense in 15-20 MPH winds on a field that was soaked in rain for 24 hours leading up to the game and had a HS game on it as well. SDSU was a yard better per play than USD.


It's not hate. It's simple "eye test", not hate.

I think USD would do well in most other conferences - likely not win them but do well. I know USD had that big NDSU win, but the reality is that USD is still a ways behind the top 6...and we'll see how SIU responds to the rest of the season

[Jackal]

UNI's defense has been the same for quite some time. There was an absolute derth of play makers and athleticism for USD. There wasn't a single player that scared me as a fan. 187 yards of offense...61 in the final three quarters. SDSU was at least competitive with that defense. USD got to face the defense in the perfect conditions of a 70* UNIDome. SDSU had to run an offense in 15-20 MPH winds on a field that was soaked in rain for 24 hours leading up to the game and had a HS game on it as well. SDSU was a yard better per play than USD.


It's not hate. It's simple "eye test", not hate.

I think USD would do well in most other conferences - likely not win them but do well. I know USD had that big NDSU win, but the reality is that USD is still a ways behind the top 6...and we'll see how SIU responds to the rest of the season
....and their other three wins were against the worst team in The Big Sky, the worst team in the Valley, and a mid pack Pioneer team. Yawn.

[clenz]

....and their other three wins were against the worst team in The Big Sky, the worst team in the Valley, and a mid pack Pioneer team. Yawn.
Well, there is that...

That mid-pack PFL team did take UND to the brink though...granted UND got crushed by NDSU...

[BisonFan02]

Well, there is that...

That mid-pack PFL team did take UND to the brink though...granted UND got crushed by NDSU...

If there was a day where I REALLY wish NDSU would finally have embarrassed a lesser opponent on the scoreboard...it was that one.

[clenz]

I just remember USD fans getting really excited in 2013 after being UNI's 3rd string, winless Indiana State and sub .500 Missouri State in consecutive weeks. They then lost 14 consecutive conference games (including this year) and currently are just 2-15 since that 3 game stretch

[Professor Chaos]

The MVFC war of attitrition continued in week 10 with 2 more teams (WIU and ISUb) eliminated from playoff contention leaving 6 MVFC teams with playoff aspirations. The top 3 have separated themselves and may all be in line for a seed with the way the rest of the country shook out today while the other 3 are hanging by a thread with 4 losses each. It's possible the conference only gets 3 bids if the bottom 3 all drop one of their last two but it's looking like there's a decent shot the MVFC will get at least 4. I ordered the teams according to what I think is the easiest road to the playoffs to the toughest.


Locks

North Dakota St 7-2 (5-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU, UNI
Bad losses: None (although my personal bias really wants to still call the USD game a bad loss)
Remaining games: @YSU, MSU
The Bison put their most complete game together this week thoroughly dismantling a WIU team that was in playoff mode. I think they're locked into the playoffs with 7 wins and with the upheaval inside the top 10 this week are looking at a top 4 seed. Somehow even with the struggles they've had this year they may be able to once again get a top 2 seed and homefield throughout the playoffs if they win out and get a little help. They're looking to eliminate a team from playoff contention for a 3rd straight week on their trip to Youngstown this week and if they can pull out a win there they're all but guaranteed to finish 9-2 (7-1) with MSU at home to close the year.

South Dakota St 7-2 (4-2)
Quality wins: @KU, SUU, @YSU, ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @USD, @WIU
The Jacks got a huge win against Illinois St and are a lock for a playoff spot and looking very good for a playoff seed with a bevy of quality wins. I think they're right behind NDSU looking at a top 4-5 seed right now. Their next game at USD is a surprisingly big game for both teams as SDSU needs it to maintain their postseason position and USD needs it to maintain their postseason hopes. They close at WIU who was completely deflated by NDSU today so that's looking to be a winnable game for the Jacks.

Illinois St 7-2 (5-1)
Quality wins: UNI, @YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @SIU, USD
The Redbirds' loss to SDSU essentially knocks them down from being the clear cut top dog in the MVFC to suddenly 3rd in the pecking order. Despite their loss in Brookings I moved them in as a lock and I think they're still in position to get a seed with how many top teams around the country lost today. However, they can likely kiss their top 2 seed goodbye unless they win out and get some help from a few teams, mainly the opponents of SDSU and NDSU, in the last two weeks.


On the bubble

Northern Iowa 5-4 (3-3)
Quality wins: EWU, @SDSU, USD
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @MSU, SIU
The Panthers are starting to hit their stride which is a scary thought for potential playoff opponents after dismantling Indiana St eliminating them from playoff competition in the process. If they win out they're certainly in and this is one 7-4 team that can do some real damage as an unseeded team in the playoffs. They face the bottom two teams in the conference in their last two starting with hapless MSU who's been a punching bag all year. SIU is a sneaky game to end the season with but I can't see this Panther team losing focus when it matters most the way they're playing on both sides of the ball right now.

Youngstown St 5-4 (3-3)
Quality wins: @USD
Bad losses: @SIU
Remaining games: NDSU, @ISUb
The Penguins, as expected, rolled Missouri St to keep their playoff hopes alive but now they host an NDSU team that's clicking on all cylinders. It's pretty simple for YSU this week; beat the Bison and get the signature win they need to lock them in if they can get to 7-4 or lose and miss out on the party. Their last game @ISUb won't be a cake walk either but the big hurdle is this week.

South Dakota 5-4 (3-3)
Quality wins: @NDSU
Bad losses: None
Reamining games: SDSU, @ISUr
USD stayed alive... barely. This team now finds themselves only two wins away from the playoffs but their remaining schedule is brutal hosting the 7-2 Jackrabbits before closing the season on the road at conference co-leader and 7-2 Illinois St. Their matchup against SDSU will have more riding on it than it ever has in the D1 era which will make an already intense rivalry game even moreso. If they can take down their in-state rival it will be their biggest win since going to D1 (including beating Minnesota) but the Jacks are going to be keyed up for that game as well so it'll be one to watch.


Out of contention

Western Illinois 4-5 (3-3) - The Necks had a good run to start the conference season but just ran out of gas in a brutal conference slate where they missed the only gimme win (MSU) the conference had to offer this year.
Indiana St 4-5 (2-4) - The Trees just could never get that quality win they needed to keep them in the hunt.
Southern Illinois 3-6 (2-4) - How many more close games can this team lose?
Missouri St 1-8 (0-6) - With games remaining against UNI and NDSU things are likely to get even worse for the Bears before they can close up shop on an already awful season.

[Bison56]

The MVFC war of attitrition continued in week 10 with 2 more teams (WIU and ISUb) eliminated from playoff contention leaving 6 MVFC teams with playoff aspirations. The top 3 have separated themselves and may all be in line for a seed with the way the rest of the country shook out today while the other 3 are hanging by a thread with 4 losses each. It's possible the conference only gets 3 bids if the bottom 3 all drop one of their last two but it's looking like there's a decent shot the MVFC will get at least 4. I ordered the teams according to what I think is the easiest road to the playoffs to the toughest.


Locks

North Dakota St 7-2 (5-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU, UNI
Bad losses: None (although my personal bias really wants to still call the USD game a bad loss)
Remaining games: @YSU, MSU
The Bison put their most complete game together this week thoroughly dismantling a WIU team that was in playoff mode. I think they're locked into the playoffs with 7 wins and with the upheaval inside the top 10 this week are looking at a top 4 seed. Somehow even with the struggles they've had this year they may be able to once again get a top 2 seed and homefield throughout the playoffs if they win out and get a little help. They're looking to eliminate a team from playoff contention for a 3rd straight week on their trip to Youngstown this week and if they can pull out a win there they're all but guaranteed to finish 9-2 (7-1) with MSU at home to close the year.

South Dakota St 7-2 (4-2)
Quality wins: @KU, SUU, @YSU, ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @USD, @WIU
The Jacks got a huge win against Illinois St and are a lock for a playoff spot and looking very good for a playoff seed with a bevy of quality wins. I think they're right behind NDSU looking at a top 4-5 seed right now. Their next game at USD is a surprisingly big game for both teams as SDSU needs it to maintain their postseason position and USD needs it to maintain their postseason hopes. They close at WIU who was completely deflated by NDSU today so that's looking to be a winnable game for the Jacks.

Illinois St 7-2 (5-1)
Quality wins: UNI, @YSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @SIU, USD
The Redbirds' loss to SDSU essentially knocks them down from being the clear cut top dog in the MVFC to suddenly 3rd in the pecking order. Despite their loss in Brookings I moved them in as a lock and I think they're still in position to get a seed with how many top teams around the country lost today. However, they can likely kiss their top 2 seed goodbye unless they win out and get some help from a few teams, mainly the opponents of SDSU and NDSU, in the last two weeks.


On the bubble

Northern Iowa 5-4 (3-3)
Quality wins: EWU, @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @MSU, SIU
The Panthers are starting to hit their stride which is a scary thought for potential playoff opponents after dismantling Indiana St eliminating them from playoff competition in the process. If they win out they're certainly in and this is one 7-4 team that can do some real damage as an unseeded team in the playoffs. They face the bottom two teams in the conference in their last two starting with hapless MSU who's been a punching bag all year. SIU is a sneaky game to end the season with but I can't see this Panther team losing focus when it matters most the way they're playing on both sides of the ball right now.

Youngstown St 5-4 (3-3)
Quality wins: None
Bad losses: @SIU
Remaining games: NDSU, @ISUb
The Penguins, as expected, rolled Missouri St to keep their playoff hopes alive but now they host an NDSU team that's clicking on all cylinders. It's pretty simple for YSU this week; beat the Bison and get the signature win they need to lock them in if they can get to 7-4 or lose and miss out on the party. Their last game @ISUb won't be a cake walk either but the big hurdle is this week.

South Dakota 5-4 (3-3)
Quality wins: @NDSU
Bad losses: None
Reamining games: SDSU, @ISUr
USD stayed alive... barely. This team now finds themselves only two wins away from the playoffs but their remaining schedule is brutal hosting the 7-2 Jackrabbits before closing the season on the road at conference co-leader and 7-2 Illinois St. Their matchup against SDSU will have more riding on it than it ever has in the D1 era which will make an already intense rivalry game even moreso. If they can take down their in-state rival it will be their biggest win since going to D1 (including beating Minnesota) but the Jacks are going to be keyed up for that game as well so it'll be one to watch.


Out of contention

Western Illinois 4-5 (3-3) - The Necks had a good run to start the conference season but just ran out of gas in a brutal conference slate where they missed the only gimme win (MSU) the conference had to offer this year.
Indiana St 4-5 (2-4) - The Trees just could never get that quality win they needed to keep them in the hunt.
Southern Illinois 3-6 (2-4) - How many more close games can this team lose?
Missouri St 1-8 (0-6) - With games remaining against UNI and NDSU things are likely to get even worse for the Bears before they can close up shop on an already awful season.

Good stuff PC

[CappinHard]

I concur, good stuff. Although, I see the USD loss as a bad loss for NDSU. You can state your case against, it, but with their only quality win being NDSU, I beg to differ. They are in playoff contention now, but with SDSU and ISUr remaining, in all likelihood they will end the season at 5-6. If they beat either SDSU or ISUr, I would consider it not a bad loss, but as of right now, I'm going with bad loss.

[Professor Chaos]

I concur, good stuff. Although, I see the USD loss as a bad loss for NDSU. You can state your case against, it, but with their only quality win being NDSU, I beg to differ. They are in playoff contention now, but with SDSU and ISUr remaining, in all likelihood they will end the season at 5-6. If they beat either SDSU or ISUr, I would consider it not a bad loss, but as of right now, I'm going with bad loss.
Can't really disagree, if the NDSU team that showed up today was there against USD I'm convinced the score would've been about the same then as it was today. For now I took them off NDSU's bad loss list but if they get rolled by SDSU and ISUr they'll be back on it.

[JayJ79]

SIU is a sneaky game to end the season with but I can't see this Panther team losing focus when it matters most the way they're playing on both sides of the ball right now.

2009 After trouncing YSU and WIU, UNI loses to an Illinois State team (that finished 6-5) in the final game by giving up a last minute score, which knocked the Panthers out of the playoffs (though that one was on the road, where as the SIU game will be in the Dome)

[Bisonwinagn]

Can't really disagree, if the NDSU team that showed up today was there against USD I'm convinced the score would've been about the same then as it was today. For now I took them off NDSU's bad loss list but if they get rolled by SDSU and ISUr they'll be back on it.

Please explain how USD can be a bad loss for one team and a quality win for another? It's ridiculous. Also how any valley team be a bad loss when they've all been in the top 25 and would be in the playoff's if they played in any other conference in the country? Do you really think USD would be worse than UND who has a chance?

[Professor Chaos]

Please explain how USD can be a bad loss for one team and a quality win for another? It's ridiculous. Also how any valley team be a bad loss when they've all been in the top 25 and would be in the playoff's if they played in any other conference in the country? Do you really think USD would be worse than UND who has a chance?
UND would've been a bad loss for NDSU too. For this week only I added USD as a quality win for YSU and UNI. I took USD off NDSU's bad loss list but added the caveat because I'm pretty sure the WIU team NDSU beat today was better than the USD team that beat NDSU on 10/17. If USD loses their last two though they won't be a quality win for anyone and if they lose convincingly to SDSU and ISUr it will underscore that as a bad loss for NDSU.

I also don't believe in calling wins against teams with losing records a quality win no matter what they were ranked at when that win occurred or what they may do in other conferences. Besides I'm more comparing MVFC teams with each other rather than with OOC teams so there's no point in listing all teams outside of MSU as quality wins since it would just water down the summary.

[Yote 53]

How about this, with the exception of MSU every win you get in the MVFC is a good win and there is no such thing as a bad loss. This conference is a grind and any team in it, with the exception of the Bears, would be a contender in any other conference.

I don't get the good win/badloss thing. This conference is like the NFL, any win is a good win, you only hope to survive and advance.

Yes, consider this a shot at any other team in any other conference. You haven't lived (or died) until you have experienced a season in this conference. It's that damn good.

[PantherRob82]

How about this, with the exception of MSU every win you get in the MVFC is a good win and there is no such thing as a bad loss. This conference is a grind and any team in it, with the exception of the Bears, would be a contender in any other conference.

I don't get the good win/badloss thing. This conference is like the NFL, any win is a good win, you only hope to survive and advance.

Yes, consider this a shot at any other team in any other conference. You haven't lived (or died) until you have experienced a season in this conference. It's that damn good.

You need some Casey's pizza, bro, or at least some of those cheesy tots.

[Professor Chaos]

How about this, with the exception of MSU every win you get in the MVFC is a good win and there is no such thing as a bad loss. This conference is a grind and any team in it, with the exception of the Bears, would be a contender in any other conference.

I don't get the good win/badloss thing. This conference is like the NFL, any win is a good win, you only hope to survive and advance.

Yes, consider this a shot at any other team in any other conference. You haven't lived (or died) until you have experienced a season in this conference. It's that damn good.
Quality win=beating a team that most of the other teams they played have lost to.

Bad loss=losing to a team that most of the other they've played have beaten.

It's a pretty simple concept. I don't think it's very useful to list all 9 decent teams in the MVFC as quality wins. You can get a good idea of that by looking at the conference record.

[CappinHard]

Since the other MVFC thread seems to be reserved for food talk only, I'll leave this here in regards to this week's MVFC spreads:

SDSU opens as 10.5 point favorites over USD (about right, but I think SDSU covers, I see us winning by 13-17)
NDSU 7 point fav over YSU (too small, NDSU has their run game clicking, and we saw what YSU can do against SDSU, and we haven't been that good with the run game)
ISUr 4 point fav over SIU (too small, ISUr will have a big rebound win against SIU, a team out of playoff contention)
UNI 34 point fav over MSU (about right, blow out again)
ISUb and WIU are even (again, about right)

[Rollbird5]

Tough to predict what the committee will do but if Isur wins out do u guys think we get a top 4 seed?

[skinny_uncle]

Tough to predict what the committee will do but if Isur wins out do u guys think we get a top 4 seed?
You should.

[Panther-State]

Since the other MVFC thread seems to be reserved for food talk only, I'll leave this here in regards to this week's MVFC spreads:

SDSU opens as 10.5 point favorites over USD (about right, but I think SDSU covers, I see us winning by 13-17)
NDSU 7 point fav over YSU (too small, NDSU has their run game clicking, and we saw what YSU can do against SDSU, and we haven't been that good with the run game)
ISUr 4 point fav over SIU (too small, ISUr will have a big rebound win against SIU, a team out of playoff contention)
UNI 34 point fav over MSU (about right, blow out again)
ISUb and WIU are even (again, about right)

Geezo, is that an actual spread or just in jest? When was the last time a 5-4 team got that kind of spread? I'd hate to see what the spreads were for NDSU, ISUr, etc...

[UNI Pike]

Geezo, is that an actual spread or just in jest? When was the last time a 5-4 team got that kind of spread? I'd hate to see what the spreads were for NDSU, ISUr, etc...

The bears have been losing about 37 a game this year (http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/uni-football-trying-to-keep-winning-feeling-fresh-20151109). Ouch.

On top of all the other hardship the team has experienced this year, MSU HC had emergency eye surgery last week. Probably as a result of watching his teams' game films too much.

[Professor Chaos]

Geezo, is that an actual spread or just in jest? When was the last time a 5-4 team got that kind of spread? I'd hate to see what the spreads were for NDSU, ISUr, etc...
There's a guy on Bisonville who tracks the Sagarin predictor and how NDSU does against that each week. Currently he has it at NDSU -42.5 in the 11/21 game against MSU.


Tough to predict what the committee will do but if Isur wins out do u guys think we get a top 4 seed?
I think you'd need one in the group NDSU, SDSU, or McNeese to drop one more game. It's still possible ISUr gets seeded above one of those teams without any of them losing but if I had to guess right now the Redbirds would be the #5 seed in that scenario.

[Thumper 76]

Tough to predict what the committee will do but if Isur wins out do u guys think we get a top 4 seed?

It all depends on wht the committee values more between SDSU and ISUr. If it the Head to Head and quality wins, then it's SDSU. If it's record vs the FCS, then it's ISUr. One of those two get the 4 IMHO.

[ISUMatt]

ISUr did quite well with that 5 seed last season!


ISUMatt

[BisonFan02]

ISUr did quite well with that 5 seed last season!


ISUMatt

Yup.....I couldn't be happier if I were to see NDSU on the entire opposite side of the bracket from the top echelon of the MVFC....

[CappinHard]

Geezo, is that an actual spread or just in jest? When was the last time a 5-4 team got that kind of spread? I'd hate to see what the spreads were for NDSU, ISUr, etc...

Definitely a legit spread. It has ranged from 30-40 each week in MVFC play. Unusual for an MVFC team.

[ST_Lawson]

The bears have been losing about 37 a game this year (http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/uni-football-trying-to-keep-winning-feeling-fresh-20151109). Ouch.

On top of all the other hardship the team has experienced this year, MSU HC had emergency eye surgery last week. Probably as a result of watching his teams' game films too much.

I can't wait to get them back on the schedule next year :)

[JayJ79]

I can't wait to get them back on the schedule next year :)
looking to snap the 5 game losing streak that the Leathernecks have against the Bears?

[ST_Lawson]

looking to snap the 5 game losing streak that the Leathernecks have against the Bears?

Very much so, yes.

MSU wasn't great those years, but we were worse. We're finally starting to get better (it seems like it, anyway) and MSU is really not a good team right now.

[wretched]

I am certainly no expert when it comes to this stuff but I just get a feeling that WIU is playing for a playoff game next week when they meet SDSU at home. I am probably wrong but assuming UNI wins that gives them 2 top 15 wins and a slew of good losses. Opportunity for committee to reward scheduling Eastern Ill and Coastal OOC. Just think they should be rewarded for playing a challenging OOC and playing in the Valley. How wrong am I?

[BisonFan02]

I am certainly no expert when it comes to this stuff but I just get a feeling that WIU is playing for a playoff game next week when they meet SDSU at home. I am probably wrong but assuming UNI wins that gives them 2 top 15 wins and a slew of good losses. Opportunity for committee to reward scheduling Eastern Ill and Coastal OOC. Just think they should be rewarded for playing a challenging OOC and playing in the Valley. How wrong am I?

No way.........that loss in Fargo was like watching a snuff movie. I would be shocked if they took a team with that record period, let alone WIU.

[clenz]

Only 6 D1 wins leaves them about 2% chance to get in. That's if they win big


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[wretched]

Yeah that is what I figured, makes no sense to me as they have to be a top 14 team after the autobids, looking forward to Professor Chaos analysis after what went down today. Suppose YSU is done?

[BisonFan02]

Yeah that is what I figured, makes no sense to me as they have to be a top 14 team after the autobids, looking forward to Professor Chaos analysis after what went down today. Suppose YSU is done?

Yuuuuuuuuuuuup.

[Professor Chaos]

Week 11 saw the postseason hopes dashed in dramatic fashion for 2 more MVFC teams in YSU and USD leaving only 4 MVFC teams with playoff aspirations and all 4 likely to get in with only UNI being outside the locks. That means there's not much drama left for week 12 but jockeying for playoff position will still be important. I think the top 3 teams are all be in line for a good seed and UNI will be one of the toughest outs on the opening weekend (provided they win their last game) for whoever they play. I ordered the teams according to where I think their positioning will be in relation to each other in the playoffs.


Locks

North Dakota St 8-2 (6-1)
Quality wins: @SDSU, UNI
Bad losses: USD
Remaining games: MSU
The Bison survived in Youngstown winning a game they easily could've, and maybe should've, lost. Nevertheless they kept their postseason position intact and eliminated a fellow conference team from postseason contention for the 3rd straight week. They're locked into the playoffs with 8 wins and are looking at somewhere between a 2-4 seed right now IMO. I have NDSU as the first team seeded in the MVFC due to their likely autobid status over Illinois St (with no head-to-head matchup) and their convincing head-to-head win at SDSU. All they have left is MVFC punching bag Missouri St so it's very likely the Bison are in line to host multiple playoff games once again this year.

South Dakota St 8-2 (5-2)
Quality wins: @KU, SUU, ISUr
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: @WIU
The Jacks got a scare from their in-state rivals in Vermillion but kept pace with the other MVFC leaders outlasting USD. I think they're right behind NDSU looking at a top 3-5 seed right now. Their head-to-head win against ISUr and strong non-conference wins has them ahead of ISUr in the MVFC pecking order IMO. They close at WIU who is playing for pride but does have a shot at a winning record (and an ever so faint glimmer of hope that they can be the first 6 win team to make the playoffs) if they can knock off the Jacks.

Illinois St 8-2 (6-1)
Quality wins: UNI
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: USD
The Redbirds' shook off a slow start to handle SIU easily on the road and rebound from their loss last week to SDSU. They're still in good position to get a seed and depending on what criteria the selection committee uses to sort out these top 3 MVFC teams I could see ISUr anywhere from 2-6. They don't have the marquee win(s) that NDSU and SDSU do but they only have one FCS loss and a respectable one at that (@SDSU). I have them as the lowest seeded of the top 3 but wouldn't be surprised to see these three teams in any order should they all win their last game. They close against a USD team who's not a pushover anymore but likely going to be broken and beaten after their close but ultimately crushing loss to SDSU.


On the bubble

Northern Iowa 6-4 (4-3)
Quality wins: EWU, @SDSU
Bad losses: None
Remaining games: SIU
As expected the Panthers blew out hapless Missouri St to get within one home win against SIU of locking up a playoff spot. It looks like there may be a few surprise 7 win teams in the other leagues so I don't think a six win UNI team would have any playoff chances but they'd have to be the best 6 win team out there if the stars aligned and it did come down to that. SIU is a sneaky game to end the season with but the Panthers should win and I can't see them losing focus when it matters most the way they're playing on both sides of the ball right now.


Out of contention

Western Illinois 5-5 (4-3) - The Necks would be another really good looking 6 win team but I doubt they'll be in the discussion unless they beat SDSU and the stars align for them next week.
Youngstown St 5-5 (3-4) - The Penguins were oh-so-close to securing a season defining win against NDSU but let it slip through their fingers in the final minute.
South Dakota 5-5 (3-4) - The Coyotes performed admirably against SDSU and on the year in general giving themselves hope that they can be a playoff contender in the near future.
Indiana St 4-6 (2-5) - The Trees are better than their record indicates and have really let some games slip away from them that they easily could've won.
Southern Illinois 3-7 (2-5) - SIU's game against Illinois St was a microcosm of their season with them looking great for stretches early on but disappearing during crunch time.
Missouri St 1-9 (0-7) - This team is just flat out terrible and going on the road to face an NDSU team looking to make a statement in the final week will likely be yet another lopsided loss to top off an awful season.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Nice work !!!

[ST_Lawson]

Yea, we'd have to pretty much completely demolish SDSU next week (not going to happen) and get help from some other bubble teams losing to even get a look from the committee. We're not a playoff team this year. Maybe next year if we can figure out something for our d-line (most are seniors).

[Redbird 13]

Great work, Prof. I haven't the slightest idea what will happen, but all three are deserving of high seeds and hopefully will avoid each other for a while.

[BisonTru]

Yea, we'd have to pretty much completely demolish SDSU next week (not going to happen) and get help from some other bubble teams losing to even get a look from the committee. We're not a playoff team this year. Maybe next year if we can figure out something for our d-line (most are seniors).

If you guys beat SDSU, UNI wins (likely), EIU wins (very possible), you guys would have a very good resume with wins against three playoff teams. I think you guys get in. Also, I think USD would get in at 6-5 if they pull the upset at ISU, two wins on the road against top teams.

UNI if they stumble next week is starting to look worse for a 6-5 squad with EWU possibly losing their way out of the playoffs. YSU I think would be in the discussion at 6-5, but with no wins against playoff teams very easy team to leave out.

[Professor Chaos]

If you guys beat SDSU, UNI wins (likely), EIU wins (very possible), you guys would have a very good resume with wins against three playoff teams. I think you guys get in. Also, I think USD would get in at 6-5 if they pull the upset at ISU, two wins on the road against top teams.

UNI if they stumble next week is starting to look worse for a 6-5 squad with EWU possibly losing their way out of the playoffs. YSU I think would be in the discussion at 6-5, but with no wins against playoff teams very easy team to leave out.
While I agree that the 6-5 MVFC teams you list above are good teams I think there's going to be too many 7 D1 win teams in the other leagues for a 6 win MVFC team to get in. Check out FargoBison's bracketology thread to see what I mean. I think there's going to be some 7 win teams that get in who would get rolled by a 6 win WIU or YSU but it is what it is. At some point you have to win to truly be a contender and I don't think a 6-5 team, even in a league as tough as the MVFC this year, can really claim they've proven themselves to be a contender.

[BisonTru]

While I agree that the 6-5 MVFC teams you list above are good teams I think there's going to be too many 7 D1 win teams in the other leagues for a 6 win MVFC team to get in. Check out FargoBison's bracketology thread to see what I mean. I think there's going to be some 7 win teams that get in who would get rolled by a 6 win WIU or YSU but it is what it is. At some point you have to win to truly be a contender and I don't think a 6-5 team, even in a league as tough as the MVFC this year, can really claim they've proven themselves to be a contender.

The committee has put in a 5 loss team as well as a 6 DI win team in the past. It's possible they could throw in a 6-5 team especially if that team came from the toughest conference and also has some wins against other playoff teams. We'll find out next week how the bubble looks, but with 14 at-larges there's is a small bubble of 6+ DI win teams to consider. It all depends on how 10 ADs view it.

[JayJ79]

The committee has put in a 5 loss team as well as a 6 DI win team in the past. It's possible they could throw in a 6-5 team especially if that team came from the toughest conference and also has some wins against other playoff teams. We'll find out next week how the bubble looks, but with 14 at-larges there's is a small bubble of 6+ DI win teams to consider. It all depends on how 10 ADs view it.

they've put a 5-loss team in, but only during a 12 game season, and a 6 DI win team, but only if they had 1 or 2 D2/reclassifying wins as well. I don't see them putting in any 6-5 teams unless the bubble is very weak.

[BisoNick]

You need some Casey's pizza, bro, or at least some of those cheesy tots.

I get those tots for breakfast every morning. Best. Tots. Ever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BisonBacker]

I get those tots for breakfast every morning. Best. Tots. Ever.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7B00dCAal4

[BisoNick]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7B00dCAal4

F***off! Get your own damn tots!

Edit: Sorry. Touchy subject for me.


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[PantherRob82]

Well, after a bye week UNI is back to their playoffs to get into the playoffs.

[skinny_uncle]

Well, after a bye week UNI is back to their playoffs to get into the playoffs.

You should be fine. The Salukis were missing 6 starters against Ill State and I don't think any of them are returning for next Saturday. It limits what they can do.

[underdawg]

You should be fine. The Salukis were missing 6 starters against Ill State and I don't think any of them are returning for next Saturday. It limits what they can do.

I think RB Daquan Isom may be out of the Dawg house for this last one---QB Mark Iannotti will give it the old college try. He leads the country in total Offense and got 423 against no. 6 Deadbirds. Poor guy threw for three more TDs but get's no respect--it's a crime what our D has done to his season.

[Sycamore62]

Can they start a NIT, CIT and a CBT for the 5 teams in the MVFC that would have got at-large bids for going 8-3 in most of the other conferences?

[andthehomeofthe-BIZON-]

If you guys beat SDSU, UNI wins (likely), EIU wins (very possible), you guys would have a very good resume with wins against three playoff teams. I think you guys get in. Also, I think USD would get in at 6-5 if they pull the upset at ISU, two wins on the road against top teams.

UNI if they stumble next week is starting to look worse for a 6-5 squad with EWU possibly losing their way out of the playoffs. YSU I think would be in the discussion at 6-5, but with no wins against playoff teams very easy team to leave out.

Aaaaaaand Nope..... No MVFC team gets in with 5 losses except maybe UNI. But even with them I don't think so. WIU and USD absolutely not

[andthehomeofthe-BIZON-]

I think RB Daquan Isom may be out of the Dawg house for this last one---QB Mark Iannotti will give it the old college try. He leads the country in total Offense and got 423 against no. 6 Deadbirds. Poor guy threw for three more TDs but get's no respect--it's a crime what our D has done to his season.

You would be a top 5 team with a mediocre defense. They are just bad. I also feel for the poor guy as he plays some tough football.

[leatherneck177]

Aaaaaaand Nope..... No MVFC team gets in with 5 losses except maybe UNI. But even with them I don't think so. WIU and USD absolutely not

No way UNI gets in before WIU if both are 6-5. Head to head for Necks at UNI. Look at the other wins. Both will have beaten SDSU.

I think it would be tough for even UNI fans to argue with that.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Can we just get over this 6-5 thing? If any team is 6-5 they aren't getting in.

[leatherneck177]

Can we just get over this 6-5 thing? If any team is 6-5 they aren't getting in.

I won't argue with that.

[andthehomeofthe-BIZON-]

No way UNI gets in before WIU if both are 6-5. Head to head for Necks at UNI. Look at the other wins. Both will have beaten SDSU.

I think it would be tough for even UNI fans to argue with that.


I know they won the head to head but the committee also takes trending into account and SOS.(The same argument for seeding SDSU ahead of NDSU that blows bison minds) I don't think anyone has played a harder schedule than UNI plus they would be on a 5 game win streak. WIU limped out of last week with an overtime win and was on a three game skid before that. But yes ultimatly I don't really believe that any 6-5 team gets in.

[clenz]

I know they won the head to head but the committee also takes trending into account and SOS.(The same argument for seeding SDSU ahead of NDSU that blows bison minds) I don't think anyone has played a harder schedule than UNI plus they would be on a 5 game win streak. WIU limped out of last week with an overtime win and was on a three game skid before that. But yes ultimatly I don't really believe that any 6-5 team gets in.
I think WIU techincally has a harder Sagarin SOS at this point...#1 and #2. I think the difference is UNI played WIU and WIU got to play UNI

[BisonFan02]

I think WIU techincally has a harder Sagarin SOS at this point...#1 and #2. I think the difference is UNI played WIU and WIU got to play UNI

Bruh....... xlolx

[clenz]

Just looked...WIU is slightly a head of UNI in SOS. Thank you Cal Poly and EWU for ****ting the bed on that one.

The difference is essentially the difference between UNI/WIU in the rankings as well.

- - - Updated - - -


Bruh....... xlolx
It makes sense.

WIU gets UNI on their SOS - UNI is higher in the computer and helps WIU's SOS
UNI gets WIU on their SOS - doesn't help UNI quite like it helps WIU as UNI is 30 spots higher in the sagarin

NDSU's SOS would go up if they got to count NDSU on their SOS compared to counting USD on their SOS.

[BisonFan02]

Just looked...WIU is slightly a head of UNI in SOS. Thank you Cal Poly and EWU for ****ting the bed on that one.

The difference is essentially the difference between UNI/WIU in the rankings as well.

- - - Updated - - -


It makes sense.

WIU gets UNI on their SOS - UNI is higher in the computer and helps WIU's SOS
UNI gets WIU on their SOS - doesn't help UNI quite like it helps WIU as UNI is 30 spots higher in the sagarin

NDSU's SOS would go up if they got to count NDSU on their SOS compared to counting USD on their SOS.

No, I did catch that with the wording....but it is dizzying... xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

Just looked...WIU is slightly a head of UNI in SOS. Thank you Cal Poly and EWU for ****ting the bed on that one.

The difference is essentially the difference between UNI/WIU in the rankings as well.

- - - Updated - - -

It makes sense.

WIU gets UNI on their SOS - UNI is higher in the computer and helps WIU's SOS
UNI gets WIU on their SOS - doesn't help UNI quite like it helps WIU as UNI is 30 spots higher in the sagarin

NDSU's SOS would go up if they got to count NDSU on their SOS compared to counting USD on their SOS.
UNI also played MSU instead of YSU like WIU did. MSU is a big ol' anchor on the SOS.

[clenz]

UNI also played MSU instead of YSU like WIU did. MSU is a big ol' anchor on the SOS.
xnodx

[BisonFan02]

UNI also played MSU instead of YSU like WIU did. MSU is a big ol' anchor on the SOS.

Well....NDSU didn't get to play ISUr and ISUr didn't get to play NDSU....we are BOTH ****ed! xlolx xrotatehx

[CappinHard]

Well....NDSU didn't get to play ISUr and ISUr didn't get to play NDSU....we are BOTH ****ed! xlolx xrotatehx

Lol, I wish they would have played though. It would have put to bed the argument of how the seeds should go. I'm hoping they make you two duke it out in the 3rd round of the playoffs since you didn't play each other during the season. xthumbsupx

[leatherneck177]

UNI also played MSU instead of YSU like WIU did. MSU is a big ol' anchor on the SOS.

I'll take that anchor on our schedule, would be a much different picture if Western played MSU this year.

[Sycamore62]

I'll take that anchor on our schedule, would be a much different picture if Western played MSU this year.

ya, id rather have a win than just 1 plane trip. Our administration disagrees

[ST_Lawson]

I know they won the head to head but the committee also takes trending into account and SOS.(The same argument for seeding SDSU ahead of NDSU that blows bison minds) I don't think anyone has played a harder schedule than UNI plus they would be on a 5 game win streak. WIU limped out of last week with an overtime win and was on a three game skid before that. But yes ultimatly I don't really believe that any 6-5 team gets in.

To be fair though, if we do somehow end up 6-5, we'd have won our last 2 games at least, including a season-finale against playoff-bound SDSU. Still though...6-5 won't get you in without a lot of help from other bubble teams losing and some random "act of god". We'll be watching the playoffs from home this year regardless of next weekend's outcome.

[Professor Chaos]

So I decided to write it all out to see how things could play out this weekend to give a 6-5 team a chance and it's actually not that outrageous.

This is what I would root for if I was a WIU fan (of course this all depends on WIU beating SDSU):

1) SIU wins at UNI - UNI would also be 6-5 and WIU has an argument over them with head-to-head win
2) JMU wins vs Nova - Nova would be 6-5
3) SUU wins vs NAU - NAU would be 7-4 with a D2 win
4) UCA wins vs SHSU - SHSU would be 7-4 with a D2 win
5) Montana St wins vs Montana - Montana would be 6-5
6) PSU wins at EWU - EWU would be 6-5
7) Cal Poly wins vs UND - UND would be 6-5
8) Maine wins at UNH - UNH would be 6-5
9) EIU wins vs EKU - EIU would be 7-4 (but with head-to-head loss to WIU) and EKU would be 6-5

And these wouldn't hurt but I don't think would really matter
1) URI wins at Towson - Towson would be 6-5
2) Florida A&M wins at Bethune-Cookman - BCU would be 8-3

If all 9 of those first matchups go their way by my count there's only 9 at large teams outside the MEAC and Pioneer that have 7 or more D1 wins meaning the committee would have to dip into the 6 D1 win team pool or the weaker leagues to fill out the last 5 spots. Then it gets really interesting to see if they go with 7-4 teams with a D2 win or 6-5 teams. In reality a strong 6-5 team like WIU could probably get in even if only 6 or so of those first 9 matchups went their way.

Likewise a 6-5 USD (with a Illinois St win) or 6-5 UNI could be in that discussion as well.

[clenz]

Issue for WIU - their only good win at this point is UNI.

Them losing this weekend hurts WIU.

[ST_Lawson]

Issue for WIU - their only good win at this point is UNI.

Them losing this weekend hurts WIU.

We did beat both UNI and SIU, so in terms of SOS, there probably wouldn't be much impact. And to get to that point we'd have to beat SDSU, so that's a good win also.

I think we'd also have to beat SDSU pretty soundly. A close win might not be convincing enough.

Oh to have another shot at YSU...

[clenz]

SIU woudln't turn that into a good win.

A win vs UNI only gets them to 4-6, I believe

[Hammersmith]

NDSU/MSU just got a little more interesting.

[UNI Pike]

NDSU/MSU just got a little more interesting.

Referring to the ebola outbreak in Fargo?

[Hammersmith]

Referring to the ebola outbreak in Fargo?

Yep. 10 or more players with a stomach virus. (media is calling it flu, but symptoms don't fit that) Most everyone will likely be well for the game, but practice and strength will suffer. Thank god it's Missouri State. A first round playoff bye should leave the Bison with no lingering effects.

http://www.inforum.com/sports/3883967-bison-dealing-flu-bug-heading-last-regular-season-football-game

[centennial]

Yep. 10 or more players with a stomach virus. (media is calling it flu, but symptoms don't fit that) Most everyone will likely be well for the game, but practice and strength will suffer. Thank god it's Missouri State.
Any other team and we probably suffer a lot. Agreed.

[Kemo]

Yep. 10 or more players with a stomach virus. (media is calling it flu, but symptoms don't fit that) Most everyone will likely be well for the game, but practice and strength will suffer. Thank god it's Missouri State. A first round playoff bye should leave the Bison with no lingering effects.

http://www.inforum.com/sports/3883967-bison-dealing-flu-bug-heading-last-regular-season-football-game

This sets up nicely for the greatest upset in FCS history... xtroublex

[UNI Pike]

I think the team equipment manger should add more sheep to the herd so the "stomach bug" isn't passed around so quickly.

From my NSA monitored nexus 5

[centennial]

This sets up nicely for the greatest upset in FCS history... xtroublex
Nothing would amuse you more. MSU sucks on SWAC, MEAC, D2 level, I don't expect our 2nd's would even lose to them.

[IBleedYellow]

The last time ndsu has player(s) sick like this... They dominated GSU.

Sent from my E6653 using Tapatalk

[Thumper 76]

Nothing would amuse you more. MSU sucks on SWAC, MEAC, D2 level, I don't expect our 2nd's would even lose to them.

I might get a kick out of it as well xlolx

[UNI Pike]

If MSU wins that game, NDSU should be relegated to the SWAC.

For Christ's sake, the MSU HC nearly lost sight in one eye watching his team's game film...

From my NSA monitored nexus 5

[REALBird]

If MSU wins that game, NDSU should be relegated to the SWAC.

For Christ's sake, the MSU HC nearly lost sight in one eye watching his team's game film...

From my NSA monitored nexus 5

Illinois State beat MSU missing 5 starters to injuries and 1 to suspension ON THE ROAD. We DID beat MSU with our second string, and held them without a touchdown. THIS is one game I won't even bother checking the score. Vegas probably isn't even taking odds on this game.

[clenz]

Illinois State beat MSU missing 5 starters to injuries and 1 to suspension ON THE ROAD. We DID beat MSU with our second string, and held them without a touchdown. THIS is one game I won't even bother checking the score. Vegas probably isn't even taking odds on this game.
UNI ran for well over 400 yards last week without even trying.

That game could have easily been 100-0 had UNI "wanted".

MSU is historically bad, and not just MVFC historically bad, either.

They've given up something like 5,300 yards this year. That's nearly 500 more than anyone else in the nation, if I remember my reading correctly.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's some of MSU's team numbers on the year with the national rank (out of 123 FCS teams) in parentheseis:

Scoring offense: 10.8 ppg (123rd)
Total offense: 239.4 ypg (118th)
Passing offense: 109.8 ypg (117th)
Team pass efficiency: 84.02 (119th)
Rushing offense: 129.6 ypg (90th)

Scoring defense: 48.0 ppg (123rd)
Total defense: 543.7 ypg (123rd)
Passing defense: 253.6 ypg (110th)
Pass efficiency defense: 171.03 (123rd)
Rushing defense: 290.1 ypg (123rd)


They've given up something like 5,300 yards this year. That's nearly 500 more than anyone else in the nation, if I remember my reading correctly.
And they've given up over 3000 yards more than they've gained this year.

Yeah, they're bad.

[jtthenutt]

is ok to feel bad for Missouri State?

[UNIFanSince1983]

UNI ran for well over 400 yards last week without even trying.

That game could have easily been 100-0 had UNI "wanted".

MSU is historically bad, and not just MVFC historically bad, either.

They've given up something like 5,300 yards this year. That's nearly 500 more than anyone else in the nation, if I remember my reading correctly.

But this begs the question if they play in the Pioneer or SWAC or MEAC or {insert weak conference name here} are their stats that bad? One would say the fact that they are that low in all statistically categories could be based on the quality of opponents they are playing week in and week out.

[Lehigh'98]

But this begs the question if they play in the Pioneer or SWAC or MEAC or {insert weak conference name here} are their stats that bad? One would say the fact that they are that low in all statistically categories could be based on the quality of opponents they are playing week in and week out.

MSU was competitive before this year, even if they didn't have a great record. They would most likely dominate the weaker conferences just due to them having scholarships.

[Professor Chaos]

But this begs the question if they play in the Pioneer or SWAC or MEAC or {insert weak conference name here} are their stats that bad? One would say the fact that they are that low in all statistically categories could be based on the quality of opponents they are playing week in and week out.
True, they're not as bad as their stats indicate due to the fact that they have the hardest schedule in the MVFC (since they don't get to play themselves) plus 2 FBS games OOC. Sagarin has them at 225 ahead of 28 other FCS teams (so 95th overall in the FCS). I'd say that's about right. According to Sagarin they'd be 5th out of 8 NEC teams if you put them there and 4th out of 12 Pioneer teams if you put them there.

[UNIFanSince1983]

MSU was competitive before this year, even if they didn't have a great record. They would most likely dominate the weaker conferences just due to them having scholarships.

I was just saying that yes they are bad, but I wouldn't consider them historically bad outside of the MVFC. I mean they probably aren't even the worst team in FCS this year.

[clenz]

I was just saying that yes they are bad, but I wouldn't consider them historically bad outside of the MVFC. I mean they probably aren't even the worst team in FCS this year.
Stats as bad?

No

Do they have more wins?

Maybe 1...

They are bad

[Sycamore62]

is ok to feel bad for Missouri State?


did you feel bad for us for our 54 of 55 losses

[jtthenutt]

did you feel bad for us for our 54 of 55 losses yes, yes I did. I even was somewhat sad when Shakir Bell got a concussion before halftime in the UNI Dome after getting 145 yards to that point.

[clenz]

did you feel bad for us for our 54 of 55 losses
I think everyone did

[ST_Lawson]

True, they're not as bad as their stats indicate due to the fact that they have the hardest schedule in the MVFC (since they don't get to play themselves) plus 2 FBS games OOC.

Sagarin has Missouri State with the toughest schedule in the FCS and Western at #2 (since we also don't play them). Massey has us at #1, but MSU at 9/10 (which seems a bit low to me).

[Sycamore62]

yes, yes I did. I even was somewhat sad when Shakir Bell got a concussion before halftime in the UNI Dome after getting 145 yards to that point.

then it's ok

and there were a couple games that I would have liked to known what he would have done if he wouldnt have been knocked out, or played. the 6pt loss to Purdue where he didnt play due to suspension is one of them. I guess you take the good with the bad, part of which is that if you run a small guy into a wall too many times he will break.

[Thumper 76]

did you feel bad for us for our 54 of 55 losses

Absolutely did.

[CappinHard]

Illinois State beat MSU missing 5 starters to injuries and 1 to suspension ON THE ROAD. We DID beat MSU with our second string, and held them without a touchdown. THIS is one game I won't even bother checking the score. Vegas probably isn't even taking odds on this game.

They are, it's a 40 point spread. Honestly, I could see MSU possibly covering that with NDSU resting injured players and probably some starters for the playoffs.

[ST_Lawson]

then it's ok

and there were a couple games that I would have liked to known what he would have done if he wouldnt have been knocked out, or played. the 6pt loss to Purdue where he didnt play due to suspension is one of them. I guess you take the good with the bad, part of which is that if you run a small guy into a wall too many times he will break.

Man....that dude...what could have been...

How many games did he not play in through the course of his career due to injury or dumb mistakes?
He finished 9th on the list for most career rushing yards in the conference. How much higher could he have been...ahead of John Crockett and David Johnson....likely....Tom Koutsos and Herb Donaldson...maybe. He wasn't quite at the Zenner level, but he could have made the top 3-4 probably.

[REALBird]

did you feel bad for us for our 54 of 55 losses

I think it's human nature to "root" for any team with a losing streak of epic proportions, Indiana State, Prairie View, Northwestern, Columbia. There have been some terrible teams playing football in my lifetime, but I'll stop short of saying I felt sorry for you guys.

The losing among other things led to getting a coach like Mike Sanford who is turning your program around. As an Illinois State alum, I can't tell you how it grated my cheese to see us constantly finish 5-6 under Jim Heacock and then watch his contract get extended for another year, then another. When Todd Berry finally came to Illinois State he showed we could win in the Gateway Conference. Denver Johnson.......had some success late in his ISU tenure. Coach Spack is finally trending toward building a "consistent" winning program.

“That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.” Friedrich Nietzsche

I see the level of expectations for your team and your program being raised significantly on your fan board. That is reflective of where you guys have been, and what Sanford brings to the ISUb community. Indiana State football, out of the ashes rises the Phoenix knows as Sycamore Football......or something like that.

[clenz]

They are, it's a 40 point spread. Honestly, I could see MSU possibly covering that with NDSU resting injured players and probably some starters for the playoffs.
I don't think they'll cover unless NDSU wants them to cover. UNI could have ran for 600+ yards and doubled their score had they tried too.

A run game like NDSU is throwing out right now...I mean...NDSU's third string win that game by 40

[REALBird]

They are, it's a 40 point spread. Honestly, I could see MSU possibly covering that with NDSU resting injured players and probably some starters for the playoffs.

NDSU's second stringers can beat the spread. I'm laying money on that one. MSU is that bad.

[jtthenutt]

I don't think they'll cover unless NDSU wants them to cover. UNI could have ran for 600+ yards and doubled their score had they tried too.

A run game like NDSU is throwing out right now...I mean...NDSU's third string win that game by 40

they could have TRIED to throw the ball too. When will I learn my lesson and accept the fact that UNI will never have the aerial attacks we grew accustomed to for years and years