Khan4Cats
November 17th, 2006, 01:55 PM
I've been looking at the possibilities for my team, UNI, to make the playoffs and have come up with this list of the competition for the final spots in the field.
BY my count, there are currently 33 teams that could get to the 7 win level. Take out the 6 that are already qualified (4 identified plus the Patriot and Southland 1-bids) and that gives us 27 for 8 at-large and 2 autos.
6 more teams are likely out because of weaker schedules and/or not even winning their conference-Central Conn, Holy Cross, Albany, Duquesne, So. Carolina St., Florida A&M brings us to 21 remainng teams.
The last two auto bids are from the Big Sky and Ohio Valley, with Jacksonville State and Tennessee State only getting in with auto bids. That would leave 16 teams for the 8 at-larges which I see breaking down this way:
1. Montana, should they lose, will get an at-large and possibly even a seed still at 9-2.
2-3. JMU and Illinois State are likely in Win or Lose, and looking at first round hosts.
4. Furman would give the SoCon a second team, 8-3 likely over a strong finishing Wofford at 7-4.
5. A third A-10 team: UNH with a W or Towson L, Towson with a W and UNH loss
That leaves 3 at-large spots for 11 teams, IF Montana loses. If they win and take the auto that opens up an at-large.
I rank the following for consideration as the last 3 (4) at-large spots:
1: A third Gateway team: SIU with a W, otherwise UNI with a W (both are out with L's)
2: A 2nd Ohio Valley team: UT-Martin at 9-2 or 8-3, or EIU at 8-4 if they win.
3: A second Big Sky team (if Montana wins): Portland State more likely than Montana State both at 7-4
4: Coastal Carolina: more likely with a W, iffy with an L
5: A fourth A-10: more likely if both UNH and Towson are 8-3, less if both are 7-4.
6: A fourth Gateway: UNI at 7-4, if SIU also wins
7: Delaware State at 9-2 withh a W, weak schedule makes 8-3 tough
8: A 3rd SoCon team with Wofford at 7-4
9: Monmouth at 10-1 or San Diego at 10-0, both weak schedules and history against them, more likely to see two 10-1 teams playing in the Grid Iron Classic.
So I think UNI's chances hang on a series of slim hopes.
1: Win over Illinois State
2: Likely must have the following lose: Towson, Montana State, and Coastal Carolina
3: Would help to have Southern Illinois and Eastern Illinois lose also freeing up at-large spots
4. Delaware State and UNH losing to further muddy things.
Its possible, not likely, but AGS
BY my count, there are currently 33 teams that could get to the 7 win level. Take out the 6 that are already qualified (4 identified plus the Patriot and Southland 1-bids) and that gives us 27 for 8 at-large and 2 autos.
6 more teams are likely out because of weaker schedules and/or not even winning their conference-Central Conn, Holy Cross, Albany, Duquesne, So. Carolina St., Florida A&M brings us to 21 remainng teams.
The last two auto bids are from the Big Sky and Ohio Valley, with Jacksonville State and Tennessee State only getting in with auto bids. That would leave 16 teams for the 8 at-larges which I see breaking down this way:
1. Montana, should they lose, will get an at-large and possibly even a seed still at 9-2.
2-3. JMU and Illinois State are likely in Win or Lose, and looking at first round hosts.
4. Furman would give the SoCon a second team, 8-3 likely over a strong finishing Wofford at 7-4.
5. A third A-10 team: UNH with a W or Towson L, Towson with a W and UNH loss
That leaves 3 at-large spots for 11 teams, IF Montana loses. If they win and take the auto that opens up an at-large.
I rank the following for consideration as the last 3 (4) at-large spots:
1: A third Gateway team: SIU with a W, otherwise UNI with a W (both are out with L's)
2: A 2nd Ohio Valley team: UT-Martin at 9-2 or 8-3, or EIU at 8-4 if they win.
3: A second Big Sky team (if Montana wins): Portland State more likely than Montana State both at 7-4
4: Coastal Carolina: more likely with a W, iffy with an L
5: A fourth A-10: more likely if both UNH and Towson are 8-3, less if both are 7-4.
6: A fourth Gateway: UNI at 7-4, if SIU also wins
7: Delaware State at 9-2 withh a W, weak schedule makes 8-3 tough
8: A 3rd SoCon team with Wofford at 7-4
9: Monmouth at 10-1 or San Diego at 10-0, both weak schedules and history against them, more likely to see two 10-1 teams playing in the Grid Iron Classic.
So I think UNI's chances hang on a series of slim hopes.
1: Win over Illinois State
2: Likely must have the following lose: Towson, Montana State, and Coastal Carolina
3: Would help to have Southern Illinois and Eastern Illinois lose also freeing up at-large spots
4. Delaware State and UNH losing to further muddy things.
Its possible, not likely, but AGS