REALBird
October 23rd, 2014, 09:11 PM
OK Gentlemen,
I just had waaaaay too much time on my hands so I figured I'd take my stab at trying to decipher the polls and see if anyone can make any sense of this whole thing. So here is the backstory. I took the Coaches Poll, TSN and AGS and lined them all up against each other to see how they stacked up and look for any real variance. I've been guilty of ripping TSN a new one this year, so I figured it was time to see if anyone has got this whole Poll thing right! Then for craps and grins, I took the average of all three polls, analyzed it against the Massey and Sagarin rankings for each team and divided by 5 (number of polls) to get each teams average poll position. (Example: NDSU (CP#1, TSN#1, AGS #1, Sagarin #1, Massey #1 = overall 1.0 ranking)
What I found was quite astonishing. I'll start with the interesting thing. Based on that formula above the top 10 teams would be:
1.) NDSU (avg. 1.0)
2.) Villanova (avg 3.0)
3.) New Hampshire (4.0)
4.) Eastern Washington (4.6)
5.) Coastal Carolina (5.0)
6.) Illinois State (5.8)
6.) SE Louisiana (5.8)
8.) Jacksonville St. (7.8)
9.) South Dakota State (9.4)
10.) Montana (10.0)
What's interesting is the TOP 6 teams are identical to what the AGS poll for this week indicate. the anomoly, Richmond coming it at #10 in AGS (which according to this formula would put them at #15, which is very close to the #16 of the Coaches Poll and #17 in TSN) The difference between where AGS ranked the last four teams vs. the formula used above (Jacksonville St. #7, Montana #8, SE Louisiana #9, SDSU #11) isn't really that far off save for a few teams shuffling around.
If you're interested the rest of the teams are as follows based on that formula:
(#11 -Chattanooga, #12 -Bethune-Cookman, #13 -Youngstown St., #14 - Southern Illinois, #15 -Richmond/Fordham, #17 - Montana St., #18 - Indiana St, #19 UNI, #20 - McNeese St, #21 - Missouri St, #22 - Eastern Kentucky, #23 - Harvard, #24 - William & Mary, #25 - Bryant)
But just for the sake of comparison, I just looked at all three polls and I was left with the following analysis, not one poll - even AGS will get things totally right. The Coaches Poll and TSN have the same top #12 teams, just with some minor variances in poll positions. AGS ranked Richmond about 6-7 spots higher than the others. 13-18 in both the TSN and Coaches Poll are more similar, once again with some minor variance with the position of the teams. Surprisingly Indiana State, and Harvard are both present in the 20-25 range of all three polls, GO IVIES!!!!!. The last three teams were a variance of Northern Iowa, Liberty, Missouri State, Bryant, Sacred Heart and Albany. I'm inclined to believe at this point, there could be some homer votes thrown in for a regional team or two just to keep them near the bottom of the poll. But those teams are so similar I can't find fault with some voters decisions.
I did like how Massey has the SOS and future SOS (SSF). I think if voters in every poll looked at the SOS for remaining games it would be interested to see how people vote based on the strength of the W/L against future teams. For all the EWU bashing about not having VA, their future SOS (23), is stronger than their current SOS (31) for current games played. While UNH's future SOS of 40, compared to their current SOS (24). Would AGS pollsters leapfrog a team like EWU over UNH by seasons end if both kept winning, or is it really all about W's and L's?
Once again, a guy with too much time on his hands. But it seems either AGS pollsters when aligned with Massey and Sagarin are more adept at picking the top 10 than the other two polls. Just my two cents.
I just had waaaaay too much time on my hands so I figured I'd take my stab at trying to decipher the polls and see if anyone can make any sense of this whole thing. So here is the backstory. I took the Coaches Poll, TSN and AGS and lined them all up against each other to see how they stacked up and look for any real variance. I've been guilty of ripping TSN a new one this year, so I figured it was time to see if anyone has got this whole Poll thing right! Then for craps and grins, I took the average of all three polls, analyzed it against the Massey and Sagarin rankings for each team and divided by 5 (number of polls) to get each teams average poll position. (Example: NDSU (CP#1, TSN#1, AGS #1, Sagarin #1, Massey #1 = overall 1.0 ranking)
What I found was quite astonishing. I'll start with the interesting thing. Based on that formula above the top 10 teams would be:
1.) NDSU (avg. 1.0)
2.) Villanova (avg 3.0)
3.) New Hampshire (4.0)
4.) Eastern Washington (4.6)
5.) Coastal Carolina (5.0)
6.) Illinois State (5.8)
6.) SE Louisiana (5.8)
8.) Jacksonville St. (7.8)
9.) South Dakota State (9.4)
10.) Montana (10.0)
What's interesting is the TOP 6 teams are identical to what the AGS poll for this week indicate. the anomoly, Richmond coming it at #10 in AGS (which according to this formula would put them at #15, which is very close to the #16 of the Coaches Poll and #17 in TSN) The difference between where AGS ranked the last four teams vs. the formula used above (Jacksonville St. #7, Montana #8, SE Louisiana #9, SDSU #11) isn't really that far off save for a few teams shuffling around.
If you're interested the rest of the teams are as follows based on that formula:
(#11 -Chattanooga, #12 -Bethune-Cookman, #13 -Youngstown St., #14 - Southern Illinois, #15 -Richmond/Fordham, #17 - Montana St., #18 - Indiana St, #19 UNI, #20 - McNeese St, #21 - Missouri St, #22 - Eastern Kentucky, #23 - Harvard, #24 - William & Mary, #25 - Bryant)
But just for the sake of comparison, I just looked at all three polls and I was left with the following analysis, not one poll - even AGS will get things totally right. The Coaches Poll and TSN have the same top #12 teams, just with some minor variances in poll positions. AGS ranked Richmond about 6-7 spots higher than the others. 13-18 in both the TSN and Coaches Poll are more similar, once again with some minor variance with the position of the teams. Surprisingly Indiana State, and Harvard are both present in the 20-25 range of all three polls, GO IVIES!!!!!. The last three teams were a variance of Northern Iowa, Liberty, Missouri State, Bryant, Sacred Heart and Albany. I'm inclined to believe at this point, there could be some homer votes thrown in for a regional team or two just to keep them near the bottom of the poll. But those teams are so similar I can't find fault with some voters decisions.
I did like how Massey has the SOS and future SOS (SSF). I think if voters in every poll looked at the SOS for remaining games it would be interested to see how people vote based on the strength of the W/L against future teams. For all the EWU bashing about not having VA, their future SOS (23), is stronger than their current SOS (31) for current games played. While UNH's future SOS of 40, compared to their current SOS (24). Would AGS pollsters leapfrog a team like EWU over UNH by seasons end if both kept winning, or is it really all about W's and L's?
Once again, a guy with too much time on his hands. But it seems either AGS pollsters when aligned with Massey and Sagarin are more adept at picking the top 10 than the other two polls. Just my two cents.