AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 1

[superman7515]

It's that time of the year again! Obviously plenty of games to come, but I figured since I've got it already started and some of the previous games already filled out, I may as well post it.

As always, if you notice any errors while I'm filling it out, please send me a PM so that I can make any changes. And as long as you see the *** asterisks next to the Sagarin Ranking, those are from last week as he doesn't usually update until sometime Sunday.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdFoydjBaZmJxZHdQSlVKaF9LQXUxY Xc&usp=sharing

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Keep this handy voters. What is the last game this week? Is there one tomorrow? Man I'm ill informed this week ain't I?

[smilo]

Last game is South Dakota/Oregon at 10:30 tonight

[BisonFan02]

Keep this handy voters. What is the last game this week? Is there one tomorrow? Man I'm ill informed this week ain't I?

Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M square off tomorrow at 4pm central.

[superman7515]

Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M square off tomorrow at 4pm central.

SWAC has two games tomorrow. TSU & Prairie View as you said, no offense to either team, not sure that one will matter. North Carolina A&T is in the ORV category and plays tomorrow at 11 am Eastern vs Alabama A&M.

[smilo]

Whoops, didn't scroll down far enough. Sorry for the misinformation

[clenz]

Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M square off tomorrow at 4pm central.

Not to sound rude...but...if those games are influencing your vote you should probably not be voting.

[BisonFan02]

SWAC has two games tomorrow. TSU & Prairie View as you said, no offense to either team, not sure that one will matter. North Carolina A&T is in the ORV category and plays tomorrow at 11 am Eastern vs Alabama A&M.

Agree, just wanted to answer specifically. Probably more notable is the fact that the games are not entirely completed tonight.

- - - Updated - - -


Not to sound rude...but...if those games are influencing your vote you should probably not be voting.

Haha, no ****. I was just answering the question. xthumbsupx

[McNeese75]

Not to sound rude...but...if those games are influencing your vote you should probably not be voting.

:D

[bjtheflamesfan]

South Dakota is playing Oregon...south Dakota State played Missouri

[superman7515]

All of the results are posted except for Eastern Washington's second game (remember that they and Sam Houston State have two results in the spreadsheet this week), which they have well in hand against NAIA Montana Western, and the North Carolina A&T Aggies game, which is not played until 11 am tomorrow.

[superman7515]

South Dakota is playing Oregon...south Dakota State played Missouri

Ah, thanks. Good catch. For some reason I had the result for SDSU vs Missouri posted in both spots.

[superman7515]

All scores are updated with the exception of North Carolina A&T which begins play in an hour.

[superman7515]

I'm starting to add hyperlinks into the Week 1 Results section. If you click on the results, the hyperlink will take you to the recap of the game (sometimes the way you win/lose matters, in my humble opinion) so that you can see if it was close late or a lucky bounce or if the only reason it was even that close was because the starters were resting and the backups scored a late TD in garbage time. I'll finish them up soon, but need to run a few errands first, so they won't be completed right away. Let me know if this is useful, if so I will continue it into the future, if not, I can scrap it, haha.

[Fordham]

Thanks for doing this

[ursus arctos horribilis]

As always supey, can't say thanks enough for what you do here.

[Tribal]

Thanks Supe.

[superman7515]

No problem guys. All the links are up, just waiting on NC A&T who looks to have their game against Alabama A&M well in hand.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

when will voting be opened for this weeks poll?

[superman7515]

Approx 2 am this morning.

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?158910-2014-AGS-POLL-Week-1-Vote-Is-Open&p=2135671#post2135671

[ursus arctos horribilis]

when will voting be opened for this weeks poll?

Man, I even sent emails for this first vote. I'll go make a post on the FCSD board but I just didn't think that the overkill was necessary with it the Poll forum but it can't hurt I guess.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Man, I even sent emails for this first vote. I'll go make a post on the FCSD board but I just didn't think that the overkill was necessary with it the Poll forum but it can't hurt I guess.

I didn't see a link on the AGS home page. I likely wouldn't have checked my email until tomorrow, Monday....

[Catatonic]

Keep this handy voters. What is the last game this week? Is there one tomorrow? Man I'm ill informed this week ain't I?

As one who is new to FCS I had a tough time deciding how to weight games across divisions--a close loss vs a P5 opponent vs a blow out win over a hapless NAIA school, for example.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

As one who is new to FCS I had a tough time deciding how to weight games across divisions--a close loss vs a P5 opponent vs a blow out win over a hapless NAIA school, for example.

The former is normally of more weight than the latter to me but opinions vary on the matter. Just look at it and if you say "that's impressive" it's probaably true.

[BisonFan02]

The former is normally of more weight than the latter to me but opinions vary on the matter. Just look at it and if you say "that's impressive" it's probaably true.

See Davidson thread....I hope they show up ORV :D

[Cocky]

As one who is new to FCS I had a tough time deciding how to weight games across divisions--a close loss vs a P5 opponent vs a blow out win over a hapless NAIA school, for example.

Hard to tell by those games as coaches treat them differently. Some coaches play Los of players and some keep the starters in. Take JSU v MSU, MSU had more starters in the game when MSU score the last td. The game had been decided for awhile but MSU staff must of had a few plays needing work. Also do you let the 2nd team QB throw or not? So there is no normal which make the comparisons hard. NDSU always win against FBS so just treat them as normal, the champs until someone can beat the machine.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

As one who is new to FCS I had a tough time deciding how to weight games across divisions--a close loss vs a P5 opponent vs a blow out win over a hapless NAIA school, for example.

It's tough for those of us who have been following the FCS for a while as well. These early polls always have a strong element of educated guesswork and gut feelings anyway. I tend to credit playing tough with an FBS team above beating up in an NAIA or D3, and I carry over a little bit of last year's success of failure into the first couple of this year.

[superman7515]

As one who is new to FCS I had a tough time deciding how to weight games across divisions--a close loss vs a P5 opponent vs a blow out win over a hapless NAIA school, for example.

I use an extremely scientific method...

http://goodgrape.com/images/uploads/Throw_darts_blindfolded_cropped.jpg

[clenz]

This is how I treat FBS and sub D1...or even D1 body bag games...


FBS:
Respectable loss - loss was expected but team kept it close, looked competitive, or game finished about where expected:
-no punishment. I treat it like it didn't really happen so to speak.
--Example of this would be a team like Nova or UNI or Chatty this past weekend. Obviously level of opponent has to be taken into account. UNI's loss hurts UNI less than Chatty's does if that makes any sense.

Bad Loss - loss was expected but team didn't look sharp or competitive. Little bigger margin than expected
- Small punishment. Won't knock them a ton but definitely on the radar as a team that might have been overrated by me.
--Example would be South Dakota State (they are on my radar for their QB going down as well), Cal Poly (on my radar also for having 5 players kicked off), etc...

Blowout/Horrible Loss - Loss was bad all around. Score, performance, look, etc...
- There will be a big knock here. You can't get **** stomped by an FBS team, even a very good one, if you want to compete in the FCS.
--Jacksonville State, Liberty (wasn't in my poll but dropped form consideration), New Hampshire were all examples of this

Not shocking win - wins that were "expected" or shouldn't really shock anyone
- Get a small boost because it was an FBS win. However, let's tamper expectations a bit based on who was beaten
--See NDSU over Iowa State or B-C over FIU

Pretty much any other win - basically what it sounds like
- gets a good sized boost based on how I rated the FCS and FBS team before the game
--See ASU over Michigan, NDSU over Kansas State


Non D1/body bag FCS games
Loss of any kind
- consider yourself dropped out, period with a deep hole to climb out of

Unimpressive win - game was closer than it should have been
- I actually knock a team a little for that but not a ton. I get bad games can happen, but you need to stomp those you should if you want to be a top 25 team

Any other win - game went as it should have
- Great...you did what you should...no extra points for you

[clenz]

I take it this is the official thread for discussion on votes too?


If that is the case I think South Dakota State is a team that should be watched closely in the next couple games. With Sumner out who will they be? Their back up didn't look too bad yesterday but is that who he is? Their WR corps worried me before the season and with a new QB for the first time since 2010 what will happen? Sumner was just good enough to take just enough focus off ZZ to balance the offense. Can the new guy do it?

These next two weeks a VERY VERY important for them in my poll - Cal Poly and Southern Utah.

Oddly enough both of those teams are right on the edge of being in or out of my poll. Cal Poly lost 5 players due to an amazing set of felony charges. Can they maintain preseason hype?

Southern Utah has a lot to prove to me. They proved they didn't really belong in the post season last year and will be under a microscope this season.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I take it this is the official thread for discussion on votes too?


If that is the case I think South Dakota State is a team that should be watched closely in the next couple games. With Sumner out who will they be? Their back up didn't look too bad yesterday but is that who he is? Their WR corps worried me before the season and with a new QB for the first time since 2010 what will happen? Sumner was just good enough to take just enough focus off ZZ to balance the offense. Can the new guy do it?

These next two weeks a VERY VERY important for them in my poll - Cal Poly and Southern Utah.

Oddly enough both of those teams are right on the edge of being in or out of my poll. Cal Poly lost 5 players due to an amazing set of felony charges. Can they maintain preseason hype?

Southern Utah has a lot to prove to me. They proved they didn't really belong in the post season last year and will be under a microscope this season.

I took flack for suggesting that SDSU might be the team that would lose the war of attrition this year. Their schedule is absolutely brutal. Now without Sumner for the rest of the year they figure to take a couple more lumps. I actually moved them INTO my rankings given their performance against what I believe is a good Mizzou team. If nothing else, Matty Mauck is really good imo. Their game against Cal Poly will be real interesting.....

[clenz]

I took flack for suggesting that SDSU might be the team that would loses the war of attrition this year. Their schedule is absolutely brutal. Now without Sumner for the rest of the year they figure to take a couple more lumps. I actually moved them INTO my rankings given their performance against what I believe is a good Mizzou team. If nothing else, Matty Mauck is really good imo. Their game against Cal Poly will be real interesting.....

I base my preseason rankings on everyone being healthy.

I think Sumner is/was good enough to manage SDSU to a top 10 finish and wins over Cal Poly and SUU.

Without him? I don't know

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

I wouldn't read too much into UNH's loss. Toledo is one of the more underrated programs in the country. The Glass Bowl is a legit homefield advantage. The only thing might be UNH's lack of defense again. Their next game is in two weeks against Lehigh. The Wildcats will be looking for payback....

[clenz]

I wouldn't read too much into UNH's loss. Toledo is one of the more underrated programs in the country. The Glass Bowl is a legit homefield advantage. The only thing might be UNH's lack of defense again. Their next game is in two weeks against Lehigh. The Wildcats will be looking for payback....

Underrated or not giving up 666 yards with over 300 rush and passing allowed is bad.

1.2 yards per rush?

Giving up 8.3 yards per play over the course of an entire game?

That's not a good loss no matter how it's sliced

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Underrated or not giving up 666 yards with over 300 rush and passing allowed is bad.

1.2 yards per rush?

Giving up 8.3 yards per play over the course of an entire game?

That's not a good loss no matter how it's sliced

They lost 58-22 to Toledo in 2011 and still went on to have a good year. Last year Toledo rushed for more than 300 yards against EWU. The Rockets have very talented skill guys that would light up just about every single FCS defense.

The Wildcats defense has been a problem for several years but their offense is almost always among the best. I still think they're capable of returning to the semi's.....

[clenz]

They are still in my top 10..barely...

But their defense has a lot to prove to me right now

Saying they ran for a lot of yards against EWU means nothing to me. EWU has notoriously zero defense. They gave up over over 2700 yards, 180 yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry last season, and 22 TDs on the ground last season

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

They are still in my top 10..barely...

But their defense has a lot to prove to me right now

Saying they ran for a lot of yards against EWU means nothing to me. EWU has notoriously zero defense.

Even so, I'm guessing EWU is an elite team in your poll despite their problems on defense. UNH and EWU are similar in many ways, success, facilities, polar climate etc...

[clenz]

Even so, I'm guessing EWU is an elite team in your poll despite their problems on defense. UNH and EWU are similar in many ways, success, facilities, polar climate etc...

EWU has proven to have an elite offense.

[BEAR]

Hope my Bears get some consideration for the top 25 after hanging with Texas Tech! Coach Campbell appears to coach on a whole new level! Talk about adjustments. Yeah we were expected to lose by 29+ but a few overthrown TDs in the end zone and we would have won by 14. But again, it was Texas Tech.

[UNH72Plus]

Underrated or not giving up 666 yards with over 300 rush and passing allowed is bad.

1.2 yards per rush?

Giving up 8.3 yards per play over the course of an entire game?

That's not a good loss no matter how it's sliced

Can't say I'm not concerned about the total lack of D in the second half (the score was 16-14 Toledo at half time), but our offense looks pretty solid (300+ yards total passing against a very good defense). From what I've read, Toledo's linebackers are some of the best in the FBS, and that may account, in part, for the poor running game. Our lack of pressure on the QB opened up the offense in the second half. Toledo returned a good chunk of the offense that gave up the fewest sacks per game in the FBS last year. Our next game in two weeks against Lehigh should tell a lot.

[Cocky]

1.2 yards per rush?



UNI only had 1 yard per rush. But their loss was good?

[smilo]

This is how I treat FBS and sub D1...or even D1 body bag games...


FBS:
Blowout/Horrible Loss - Loss was bad all around. Score, performance, look, etc...
- There will be a big knock here. You can't get **** stomped by an FBS team, even a very good one, if you want to compete in the FCS.
--Jacksonville State, Liberty (wasn't in my poll but dropped form consideration), New Hampshire were all examples of this


Personally, I didn't move JSU down because frankly there was no one I could put above them. UNH's performance was against a mediocre team so I could move them behind, but I clearly has NDSU too low and had to move them up so no move for JSU, but they are clearly behind the teams in front of them.

My real problem with this comment however is Liberty. The score might have gotten a little lopsided at the end, but they played well against a very good UNC team. Not only did I not knock them, but I added them to my rankings. The back end of the poll doesn't make the playoffs anyway, but they could if they prove they can only lose one more game (CCU, Richmond, or App St).
Look at the performances ahead of them: Central Arkansas (who I already have much higher in my poll) could move in; Bethune-Cookman (who I added to my poll ahead of Liberty); and that's it for better performances. Delaware and James Madison have no business anywhere near the poll at this point. Northern Arizona looked terrible. Maine looked terrible against a pretty low tier FCS team. Cal Poly lost one of what should have been their must win games and now has no offensive backing. Montana State could be back, and I recognize Ark St is a decent Sun Belt team, but that was a terrible blowout - if I'm dropping UNH, Montana St is dropping twice as far. Further up, we have Towson with a legitimate shot to drop from the poll.

From behind we have SC St., who I rank right about even with Liberty putting up an expected performance. Southern Utah was respectable, but Nevada might be one of their easy games this year. Truly brutal schedule. If they win one of their next three, I'll rank them, but they don't stack up right now. Samford and Wofford had semi-respectable (a stretch for Samford) against meh FBS teams that will struggle to get bowl eligible.

Hence, Liberty's strong half performance can only be matched by SC St., Bethune (and the vastly underrated UCA). I have enough teams dropping out to fit them for the UNC performance. Even if you don't they really ought to be in the 26-30 range. Note: I even have Princeton highly ranked and Harvard right on the brink of it.

[Cocky]

JSU, I have no idea as we were outmanned everywhere except our DL. Plus DeMarcus James only got 3 carries?

[blackbeard]

So Sagarin now has Towson at 28 and CCSU at 93......makes sense.

Jeff Sagarin - proving his irrelevance weekly.

[thebootfitter]

So Sagarin now has Towson at 28 and CCSU at 93......makes sense.

Jeff Sagarin - proving his irrelevance weekly.
Blackbeard... Proving that he has little understanding of how computer rankings work. (Not meant to be a personal attack.)

Yes, it does make sense for this point in the season and most of the rankings are still based on the starting value -- which has at least some carryover from last year. Wait a few weeks until this year's teams are well connected and the rankings start to reflect this year's play.

[blackbeard]

Blackbeard... Proving that he has little understanding of how computer rankings work. (Not meant to be a personal attack.)

Yes, it does make sense for this point in the season and most of the rankings are still based on the starting value -- which has at least some carryover from last year. Wait a few weeks until this year's teams are well connected and the rankings start to reflect this year's play.

No, been watching his polls and others for a few years now and have grown accustomed to seeing bias for some conferences and against others. If his poll had carryover from last year he wouldn't have SHU at #77 or Fordham at #54 this week, yet Rhode Island at #61.