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superman7515
November 10th, 2013, 11:54 AM
Just the way I see it...

Big Sky Conference -
In: Eastern Washington
Win & In: Montana (vs 1-9 Weber State, @ 7-3 Montana State)
Northern Arizona (vs 1-9 Northern Colorado, @ 7-3 Southern Utah)
Southern Utah (@ 7-3 Montana State, vs 7-2 Northern Arizona)
Montana State (vs 7-3 Southern Utah, vs 8-2 Montana)

Montana should beat Weber State this Saturday and clinch. Northern Arizona should beat Northern Colorado this Saturday and clinch. Southern Utah has two games they could lose, both against teams that need to win to get into the playoffs. The same goes for Montana State, but they get both games at home.

Big Sky will have four teams in.


Big South Conference -
In: Coastal Carolina
Win & In: Charleston Southern (@ 5-5 Gardner-Webb, vs 6-4 Liberty)

Charleston Southern is 10-1, but two wins are against sub-D1 opponents. While their win against a top 5 Coastal Carolina team yesterday probably punched their ticket, one more win in the next two games will leave no doubt come selection time as they take the autobid.

Big South will have two teams in.


Colonial Athletic Conference -
In: Maine, Towson
Win & In: Delaware (vs 4-6 Richmond, neutral vs 5-5 Villanova)
William & Mary (vs 8-2 Towson, @ 4-6 Richmond)
Must Win Out: James Madison (vs 3-6 Stony Brook, @ 8-2 Towson)

Maine & Towson are locks no matter what else happens. Delaware will lock it up with one more win, William & Mary will lock it up with one more win, and both teams are counting on Richmond to be that team. Can the Spiders get up one more time this season? I wouldn't count them out. JMU has to win both games and pray because head-to-head losses to Delaware and William & Mary has them sitting at the #5 CAA team.

CAA gets four teams in.


Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference -
In: Bethune-Cookman
Must Win Out: South Carolina State (vs 4-6 Morgan State, @ 3-7 Norfolk State)

Even if SC State wins out, they are still hoping for teams in other conferences to falter. The best shot for a MEAC at-large is for Bethune to somehow lose their next two games and have SC State win out, allowing SC State the autobid and BCU an at-large. Don't see it happening.

MEAC gets one team in.


Missouri Valley Football Conference -
In: North Dakota State, Youngstown State
Win & In: South Dakota State (@ 4-6 South Dakota, @ 8-2 Youngstown State)

For all the strength of the MVFC top to bottom, they've cannibalized each other this year. South Dakota State is going to need a win in their rivalry game at South Dakota, and the Coyotes would love to keep them out of the playoffs. Youngstown State won't be a pushover resting players in the final week either, they'll be looking to pad their resume for a higher seed. I think SDSU beats USD, but they better put them away early.

MVFC gets three teams in.


Northeast Conference -
In: None
Win & In: Robert Morris (vs 9-2 Sacred Heart, @ 4-5 St. Francis)
Sacred Heart (@ 5-4 Robert Morris)

The winner this Saturday will lock up the autobid. But Supe, Sacred Heart is 9-2, couldn't they get an at-large? Short answer... Nope. Two of the wins are against sub-D1 opponents and would make them effectively 7-3 if they lose to Robert Morris. A 7-3 NEC team is not getting an at-large bid over a 7 win team from any other FCS conference not named Pioneer.

NEC gets one team in.


Ohio Valley Conference -
In: Eastern Illinois
Win & In: Jacksonville State (@ 9-1 Eastern Illinois, vs 2-8 Southeast Missouri State)
Tennessee State (vs 5-5 Murray State)
Must Win Out: Eastern Kentucky (vs 6-4 Tennessee-Martin, @ 5-5 Murray State)
Tennessee-Martin (@ 6-4 Eastern Kentucky, vs 9-1 Eastern Illinois)

Eastern Illinois is in no matter what, but they'll still be trying to win the last two games to secure home field advantage all the way through to Frisco. If Jacksonville State knocks off Eastern Illinois, they're a lock, but even losing to a top 3 EIU squad won't keep them out as long as they rebound and beat SEMO the next week. They're hurt by having one of their wins against a sub-D1 squad and their win over FBS Georgia State is a win over an FBS squad in name only, so that won't garner them any bonus points. This past weekends win over EKU is probably the best on the resume. Tennessee State needs to win their final game, at home against Murray, to lock it up. They have a win over Jacksonville St & Tenn-Martin in their back pocket to help their cause, and if they hadn't played D2 Central State, they'd already be in. Eastern Kentucky & Tennessee-Martin play each other this weekend and the loser is eliminated. The best hope is for Eastern Kentucky to get the W and face Murray, because if Tennessee-Martin has to bank on beating EIU to get in, it won't be pretty.

OVC gets three teams in.


Patriot League -
In: Fordham Rams
Win & In: Colgate (vs 7-2 Lehigh, vs 10-0 Fordham)
Must Win Out: Lafayette (vs 10-0 Fordham, @ 7-2 Lehigh)
Lehigh (@ 4-6 Colgate, vs 3-6 Lafayette)

Fordham is in no matter what, but they aren't eligible for the PL autobid, so the race for #2 is on. If Colgate beats Lehigh this weekend, they are in (with what will probably end up a 5-7 overall record!!!). If Lehigh beats Colgate and Lafayette, then Lehigh is in. If Lehigh beats Colgate, and Lafayette beats Lehigh, then Lafayette is in. No one will get a look as second at-large team from the PL, so it might be best to hope for Lehigh to win out so that the Patriot League doesn't humiliate the entire FCS by sending a 5-7 team to the playoffs.

PL gets two teams in.


Pioneer Football League -
In: None
Win & In: San Diego (vs 6-4 Drake)
Need Help:Butler (@ 3-7 Morehead State)
Marist (vs 9-1 Mercer)

San Diego holds head to head victories over Marist and Butler, with all three teams at 6-1 in the conference. Marist and Butler didn't play each other, so if both Marist & Butler win while San Diego loses, it becomes a tie-breaker that I'm not really interested in going into. Mercer played several sub-D1 schools, it's their first year of football, so their record isn't as great as it looks. Best bet is San Deigo takes care of business and the PFL walks into the playoffs for the first time. Doesn't matter, only the autobid is going.

PFL gets one team in.


Southern Conference -
In: None
Win & In: Chattanooga (@ 6-4 Samford, @ Alabama [yes, that Alabama])
Must Win Out: Samford (vs 8-2 Chattanooga, vs 2-8 Elon)
Wofford (vs 2-8 Appalachian State, @ 5-5 Furman)

Chattanooga clinches a playoff spot with a win in either of their final two games, but I'm sure they'll prefer to do it this Saturday. Samford has to win out, which would give them the SoCon autobid and make Chattanooga rely on an at-large. Wofford has to win out, but even if they do, they decided to only play 11 games this season, so 7-4 probably won't cut it.

SoCon gets one team in.


Southland Conference -
In: None
Win & In: McNeese State (vs 5-5 Northwestern State, @ 4-6 Lamar)
Sam Houston State (@ 8-2 Southeastern Louisiana, @ Central Arkansas)
Southeastern Louisiana (vs Sam Houston State, vs 5-5 Nicholls State)

The Southland is hurt by the fact that Incarnate Word does not count as a D1 win in the first year of their transition. Southeastern Louisiana is as close to a lock as there can be with having the autobid in hand in the SLC. McNeese will have a win over Sam Houston State and a win over FBS Southern Florida, so one more win will lock them in with no problem. Sam Houston State needs one one more win, but if they can sweep Southeastern Louisiana and Nicholls State, their win over Eastern Washington will help them get a seed.

SLC gets three teams in.

That adds up to 25 teams playing for 24 spots. The 4th team from the Big Sky is playing for the same spot as the 4th team from the CAA and the 3rd team from the OVC and the 3rd team from the Southland. If Sam Houston falls to Southeastern Louisian, everyone goes home happy. If SHSU wins out, someone is going to be disappointed.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 12:02 PM
Imagine a tournament with the best teams in the country, barring the Ivy.
MVC -- 7
CAA -- 6
OVC -- 3
BSC -- 3
SLC -- 3
PL -- 1
BSO -- 1

van
November 10th, 2013, 12:05 PM
good analysis Supe!

Sir William
November 10th, 2013, 12:16 PM
Southern Conference -
In: None
Win & In: Chattanooga (@ 6-4 Samford, @ Alabama [yes, that Alabama])
Must Win Out: Samford (vs 8-2 Chattanooga, vs 2-8 Elon)
Wofford (vs 2-8 Appalachian State, @ 5-5 Furman)

Chattanooga clinches a playoff spot with a win in either of their final two games, but I'm sure they'll prefer to do it this Saturday. Samford has to win out, which would give them the SoCon autobid and make Chattanooga rely on an at-large. Wofford has to win out, but even if they do, they decided to only play 11 games this season, so 7-4 probably won't cut it.

SoCon gets one.

If Furman wins out (beats WCarolina and Wofford) and Samford wins out (beats UTC and Elon), there would be a 3-way tie for the SoCon title between UTC, Samford and Furman (all 6-2 and Wofford out at 5-3). All three would share SoCon title. According to SoCon bylaws under such a scenario, the autobid goes to...FURMAN.

superman7515
November 10th, 2013, 12:19 PM
Like I said, just the way I see it. Not going to happen for Furman.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 12:20 PM
According to SoCon bylaws under such a scenario, the autobid goes to...FURMAN.Are there tie-break rules involved or is there some agreement that Furman wins all three-way ties involving itself, Samford and UTC?

Sir William
November 10th, 2013, 12:29 PM
I'm just telling you what the bylaws say. Yes, these are according to conference tie-break procedures. You can read for yourself at www.soconsports.com (http://www.soconsports.com).

Of course, if we lose either game, we're out. We travel to Western and host Wofford.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 12:44 PM
You can read for yourself at www.soconsports.com (http://www.soconsports.com).This is a link to the front page of the SOCON site. Have you a more direct link to the bylaws?

Bisonwinagn
November 10th, 2013, 12:51 PM
Do you have support showing Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word don't count during their transition? I was sure NDSU counted as wins when they were in transition from D2 to D1. It would be impossible for those teams to schedule otherwise.

superman7515
November 10th, 2013, 12:54 PM
I did, but my inbox kept getting deleted, haha. Talk to one of the SHSU guys, they've been concerned about it all season.

Mattymc727
November 10th, 2013, 12:56 PM
UNH has a shot at 7-4 if they win out too. @ Albany and Home vs Maine to finish the season.

superman7515
November 10th, 2013, 01:05 PM
Do you have support showing Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word don't count during their transition? I was sure NDSU counted as wins when they were in transition from D2 to D1. It would be impossible for those teams to schedule otherwise.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/ncaa/article/2012-08-20/incarnate-word-join-southland-conference-during-transition-di


FRISCO, Texas – The Southland Conference and Incarnate Word announced that the school will become a member of the league effective July 1, 2013. The membership will coincide with the San Antonio-based school's four-year transition to Division I status.
Currently a member of the Division II Lone Star Conference, Incarnate Word will begin the four-year shift to Division I with the Southland Conference’s assistance and oversight. It is expected that UIW will begin counting as an Division I team for scheduling purposes in 2014-15, and will be fully eligible for NCAA championship events in 2017-18.

Incarnate Word will participate in all of the Southland’s 17 sponsored championships, including men’s sports baseball, basketball, cross country, football, golf, tennis, and indoor and outdoor track and field. On the women’s side, UIW will compete in basketball, cross country, golf, soccer, softball, tennis, indoor and outdoor track and field, and volleyball. In 2013-14, the athletic program will receive Southland schedules in all sports, except football, as the UIW program will begin league play in the fall of 2014.

Incarnate Word does not count as a D1 school until next year and is basically a non-conference scheduling agreement game this year.

Also, I screwed up on the HBU game, I keep thinking of Abilene Christian and saying Houston Baptist. HBU does count as a D1 game this year.

Sir William
November 10th, 2013, 01:12 PM
This is a link to the front page of the SOCON site. Have you a more direct link to the bylaws?

http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/Championships/Tie-Breaking/Tie-breaking_Procedures_Football.pdf

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 01:22 PM
http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/Championships/Tie-Breaking/Tie-breaking_Procedures_Football.pdf

Who have you beaten that neither chattanooga or Samford have?

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 01:38 PM
http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/Championships/Tie-Breaking/Tie-breaking_Procedures_Football.pdf"If the tie is still not broken, the teams’ won-loss record against the next highest seeded team not involved in the tie is considered and so on down the line until the tie is broken."

Do games against ASU and GSU count for this? In the scenario you describe below, it looks like it comes down to how Chatty and Furman played against GSU. Otherwise, Elon's win over Furman comes into play.

Am I reading this correctly?


If Furman wins out (beats WCarolina and Wofford) and Samford wins out (beats UTC and Elon), there would be a 3-way tie for the SoCon title between UTC, Samford and Furman (all 6-2 and Wofford out at 5-3). All three would share SoCon title. According to SoCon bylaws under such a scenario, the autobid goes to…FURMAN.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 01:44 PM
Samford beat Georgia Southern as well.

Sir William
November 10th, 2013, 01:47 PM
Take it up with the powers that be. I'm just the messenger - don't shoot me.

My understanding (and I could be wrong) is that GaSo does count as far as W-L is concerned. If so...

1) All three would have beaten Wofford (and I realize FU still has not yet done this).
2) UTC and FU beat The Citadel (Sammy did not - Sammy out).
3) FU beat GaSo (UTC did not - FU wins autobid).
[invert #2 & #3 above, and end result is same]

Of course this hinges on both Furman and Sammy winning out from here. Furman will have a tough final game against Wofford. Before that, Furman will have to go to WCarolina and play well if they are going win; and Sammy will have to knock off the Mocs (should be a great game) and Elon (should be a Sammy W). My point is that Furman is not out yet. Lots of football still to play.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 01:50 PM
Samford beat Georgia Southern as well.Yeah, but The Citadel beat Samford and lost to the other two, eliminating Samford, right? Confusing because the rule is written poorly.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 01:51 PM
Yeah, but The Citadel beat Samford and lost to the other two, eliminating Samford, right? Confusing.

Where does it say teams are eliminated as they go? This just happened last year and I'm pretty sure the tie must be broken in one step.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 01:55 PM
Take it up with the powers that be. I'm just the messenger - don't shoot me.Did you read this in an article somewhere, not challenging you, I'd just like to see the reasoning.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 02:00 PM
Where does it say teams are eliminated as they go? This just happened last year and I'm pretty sure the tie must be broken in one step.Good point…then it comes down to this? If so, I don't know how a Furman auto-bid could have been predicted. One of the games hasn't been played yet.

"If the tie is still not broken, the team with the fewest points allowed among the tied teams shall be considered."

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 02:04 PM
Take it up with the powers that be. I'm just the messenger - don't shoot me.

My understanding (and I could be wrong) is that GaSo does count as far as W-L is concerned. If so...

1) All three would have beaten Wofford (and I realize FU still has not yet done this).
2) UTC and FU beat The Citadel (Sammy did not - Sammy out).
3) FU beat GaSo (UTC did not - FU wins autobid).

This was my thinking, also, but chattownmocs thinks otherwise.

WMTribe90
November 10th, 2013, 02:38 PM
UNH has a shot at 7-4 if they win out too. @ Albany and Home vs Maine to finish the season.

A 7-4 record in a 12 game season is going to make it near impossible. UNH will likely be up against 8-4 teams from power conferences for a spot.

WMTribe90
November 10th, 2013, 02:46 PM
Great read and analysis Supe. One thought, is Towson an absolute lock if they were to lose their final two games (WM and JMU) to finish 8-4, with loses to UD, JMU and WM in this scenario? If WM, UD, JMU and Towson all finished 8-4 then Towson would be the 5th place CAA team based on head to head.

1) Maine
2) WM
3) UD
4) JMU
5) Towson

I think Towson needs one more win the punch their ticket for sure.

superman7515
November 10th, 2013, 03:02 PM
Great read and analysis Supe. One thought, is Towson an absolute lock if they were to lose their final two games (WM and JMU) to finish 8-4, with loses to UD, JMU and WM in this scenario? If WM, UD, JMU and Towson all finished 8-4 then Towson would be the 5th place CAA team based on head to head.

1) Maine
2) WM
3) UD
4) JMU
5) Towson

I think Towson needs one more win the punch their ticket for sure.

James Madison does not have a win this season over a team with a winning record, so taking that into account, I doubted their chances of having the planets align to get in front of Towson in the scenario described above.

WMTribe90
November 10th, 2013, 03:06 PM
James Madison does not have a win this season over a team with a winning record, so taking that into account, I doubted their chances of having the planets align to get in front of Towson in the scenario described above.

Fair enough, but what is likely to happen and what can happen are different things. The scenario I laid out is not that improbable. Towson needs one more win to be a lock.

superman7515
November 10th, 2013, 03:12 PM
And that's why I said "the way I see it" and not "everyone can go home and ignore the season because the BCS computers have already determined who is going to be in the FCS playoffs."

WMTribe90
November 10th, 2013, 03:21 PM
And that's why I said "the way I see it" and not "everyone can go home and ignore the season because the BCS computers have already determined who is going to be in the FCS playoffs."

I get its fluid and you are offering a snapshot. I think you gave a great synopsis. However, you list Towson as "In", which implies they are a lock. My simple (i thought) point, was that they could potentially be the 5th place CAA team if they lost their last two games to WM and JMU.

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 04:39 PM
Imagine a tournament with the best teams in the country, barring the Ivy.
MVC -- 7
CAA -- 6
OVC -- 3
BSC -- 3
SLC -- 3
PL -- 1
BSO -- 1

LOL - seven MVFC? Only 3 BSC? Nice try, but nope

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 04:43 PM
LOL - seven MVFC? Only 3 BSC? Nice try, but nopeWhat's your breakdown?

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 04:45 PM
What's your breakdown?

I would have to look at it, but from BSC, for sure, UM, MSU, EWU, NAU. SUU might be in there as well.

For MVFC, NDSU, YSU, SDSU. I wouldn't put UNI, USD, MSU or ISU-r in there.

Lehigh'98
November 10th, 2013, 04:46 PM
Imagine a tournament with the best teams in the country, barring the Ivy.
MVC -- 7
CAA -- 6
OVC -- 3
BSC -- 3
SLC -- 3
PL -- 1
BSO -- 1

Theoretically, you would put in a 7th place MVFC or 6th place CAA over a potential 9-2 Lehigh or Sacred Heart? Also no SoCon?? We have this discussion every year and it's a waste of time.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:00 PM
I wouldn't put UNI, USD, MSU or ISU-r in there.Understood. Is it due to their win/loss record?

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:02 PM
Theoretically, you would put in a 7th place MVFC or 6th place CAA over a potential 9-2 Lehigh or Sacred Heart? Also no SoCon??Correct. I see a different strength level between these teams than you do. PS Which SoCon team would you choose?


We have this discussion every year and it's a waste of time.Not to me. Don't take part. More and more I am seeing people admit that win/loss record should not be the primary tool for ranking.

Lehigh'98
November 10th, 2013, 05:06 PM
Why should you be rewarded for going 6-5 in a tougher conf? SOS is not the end all be all. From the SoCon, Chatty currently is a playoff team. Samford is in with Chatty if they beat them and Elon imo. Def take both of them overs 6 or 7 from MVFC.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:10 PM
Why should you be rewarded for going 6-5 in a tougher conf? SOS is not the end all be all. From the SoCon, Chatty currently is a playoff team. Samford is in with Chatty if they beat them and Elon imo. Def take both of them overs 6 or 7 from MVFC.I am listing the top 24 teams in the country. The top 24 teams in the country should be rewarded. Conference affiliation is arbitrary.

Sir William
November 10th, 2013, 05:13 PM
I am listing the top 24 teams in the country. The top 24 teams in the country should be rewarded.

In a perfect world, maybe...but that's not the way the FCS playoffs work. Conference champions are in, regardless of SOS. That's why we will see a non-schollie Pioneer champ in the playoff mix this year.

Want to be "rewarded" (guaranteed)? Win your conference outright.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 05:14 PM
Correct. I see a different strength level between these teams than you do. PS Which SoCon team would you choose?

Not to me. Don't take part. More and more I am seeing people admit that win/loss record should not be the primary tool for ranking.

You have it backwards the 6th or 7th best SOCON team would beat the 3rd or 4th best MVC team. Your ranking system is awful. These teams cannot matchup physically. Watch the games.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:17 PM
In a perfect world, maybe...but that's not the way the FCS playoffs work. Conference champions are in, regardless of SOS.I understand the current rules. I don't have to agree with them or argue on their behalf.

Lehigh'98
November 10th, 2013, 05:18 PM
Again, why should a team with 6 wins at end of season be in top 24? The only argument is they have tough losses and maybe 2 good wins. The other schools from Lower conferences will end up having same number of good wins most likely. Anyway, I'm not going to change your opinion, but the system won't change most likely for a very, very long time if ever.

ElCid
November 10th, 2013, 05:18 PM
I am listing the top 24 teams in the country. The top 24 teams in the country should be rewarded. Conference affiliation is arbitrary.

The top 24 according to some computer program. A program which may or may not actually represent the actual quality of teams. The built in bias that exists due to a programmer's personal belief on what factors to weigh and by how much. No better than a human poll. It is just dressed up in cloak of computing power and fancy presentation.

Try again.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:19 PM
You have it backwards the 6th or 7th best SOCON team would beat the 3rd or 4th best MVC team. Your ranking system is awful. These teams cannot matchup physically. Watch the games.I watch the games as much as I possibly can. Your ranking system is not a system.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:21 PM
The top 24 according to some computer program. A program which may or may not actually represent the actual quality of teams. The built in bias that exists due to a programmer's personal belief on what factors to weigh and by how much. No better than a human poll. It is just dressed up in cloak of computing power and fancy presentation.

Try again.Nothings is perfect, but an algorithm can be constantly improved. A human mind is never consistent.
I prefer using wikipedia and google to a card catalog, don't you?

Lehigh'98
November 10th, 2013, 05:26 PM
Why don't you think Chattanooga isn't a top 24 team right now?

LeeshaJo
November 10th, 2013, 05:29 PM
The team that honestly should get consideration for playing very good ball right now is Missouri State, Too bad they couldn't have grabbed a couple of those close ones in the beginning of the season.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:35 PM
Why don't you think Chattanooga isn't a top 24 team right now?The major issue is SOS for SoCon teams. The entire conference is ranked very low, Chattanooga the best of the group. Chattanooga's current SOS is 85th and it is only projected to reach 54th after they've made the trip to Tuscaloosa.

Professor Chaos
November 10th, 2013, 05:36 PM
The team that honestly should get consideration for playing very good ball right now is Missouri State, Too bad they couldn't have grabbed a couple of those close ones in the beginning of the season.
Absolutely correct. It's unfortunate for the rest of the conference that they couldn't play this type of ball in the OOC schedule because it not only took them out of playoff contention but it gives a perceived black eye to the playoff contending teams in the valley (like SDSU) who've lost to them for those who don't follow valley football.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:36 PM
The team that honestly should get consideration for playing very good ball right now is Missouri State, Too bad they couldn't have grabbed a couple of those close ones in the beginning of the season.I agree.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 05:37 PM
I watch the games as much as I possibly can. Your ranking system is not a system.

Do you factor what you see into your ranking system. Does your system factor when the teams played? Injuries? Suspensions? What exactly is your silly formula?

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 05:39 PM
I agree.

Sounds like your system is very incestual and likely entirely based on OOC games that were mainly played in the first few weeks of the season. I'm sure it is impossible for you to admit that your system is highly flawed.

ElCid
November 10th, 2013, 05:42 PM
Nothings is perfect, but an algorithm can be constantly improved. A human mind is never consistent.
I prefer using wikipedia and google to a card catalog, don't you?

Not a fair comparison. I will trust my judgment over a computers all day long.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:45 PM
What exactly is your silly formula?Listen, you pompous little ****, enjoy your southern football and go **** yourself.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 05:47 PM
Listen, you pompous little ****, enjoy your southern football and go **** yourself.

Why are you scared to share your formula?

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:47 PM
Not a fair comparison. I will trust my judgment over a computers all day long.I cannot trust my own judgement when the college football season is a data set of thousands of games.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 05:48 PM
Why are you scared to share your formula?It is not a matter of being scared, douchebag. Are you 12 years old?
I thought it was very clear that I use masseyratings.com.

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 05:49 PM
Understood. Is it due to their win/loss record?

UNI - not the same team as the beginning of the year, and that beginning is still propping up their computer ranking.
USD - good team, but since they have lost to UM and NAU, would be hard to justify them in, and only three BSC in.
ISU-r good team again, but not top 25
MSU - too jekyl and hyde to consider them a top team.

fmrbearkat
November 10th, 2013, 05:51 PM
Why are you scared to share your formula?

No point...you wouldn't understand! He's not fluid in insane!

taper
November 10th, 2013, 05:51 PM
LOL - seven MVFC? Only 3 BSC? Nice try, but nope

Yesterday the 7th place MVFC team arguably outplayed but lost to the 4th place BSG. Same MVFC team also handily lost to 3rd BSG. Little other meaningful cross-conference play, so while 7 and 3 might be a stretch, 6 and 3 has merit based on on-field results. When comparing final scores, check for garbage time scoring.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 05:53 PM
It is not a matter of being scared, douchebag. Are you 12 years old?
I thought it was very clear that I use masseyratings.com.

No, I'm 24. I honestly thought you had come up with something on your own since you are so staunchly defensive.

ejjones
November 10th, 2013, 05:58 PM
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference -[/B]
In: Bethune-Cookman
Must Win Out: South Carolina State (vs 4-6 Morgan State, @ 3-7 Norfolk State)

Even if SC State wins out, they are still hoping for teams in other conferences to falter. The best shot for a MEAC at-large is for Bethune to somehow lose their next two games and have SC State win out, allowing SC State the autobid and BCU an at-large. Don't see it happening.

MEAC gets one team in.

[B]

If SCSU wins out & BCU loose 1; SCSU would get AQ.

superman7515
November 10th, 2013, 06:04 PM
Yes, I just don't see BCU losing. FAMU is 9 yards of terrible and Hampton doesn't have a win this season over a team with a winning record against D1 competition.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:05 PM
No, I'm 24. I honestly thought you had come up with something on your own since you are so staunchly defensive.Instead of having a logical discussion, you use demeaning language to strengthen your point, like a child on the school yard. In the process, you stifle any real interaction, indicating that you actually don't care for a logical conversation.

I know that the algorithm I employ has issues, taking injuries and weather into account, for example, but it is the best system I have seen to rank the football season. Algorithms can be improved to include these and many other variables.

taper
November 10th, 2013, 06:07 PM
Absolutely correct. It's unfortunate for the rest of the conference that they couldn't play this type of ball in the OOC schedule because it not only took them out of playoff contention but it gives a perceived black eye to the playoff contending teams in the valley (like SDSU) who've lost to them for those who don't follow valley football.

I think MSU and UNI are the FCS's version of Clark Kent and Superman. Have you ever seen both of them play well at the same time?

ElCid
November 10th, 2013, 06:07 PM
I cannot trust my own judgement when the college football season is a data set of thousands of games.

I, can.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:10 PM
No, I'm 24. I honestly thought you had come up with something on your own since you are so staunchly defensive.Which system do you employ?

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 06:10 PM
Instead of having a logical discussion, you use demeaning language to strengthen your point, like a child on the school yard. In the process, you stifle any real interaction, indicating that you actually don't care for a logical conversation.

I know that the algorithm I employ has issues, taking injuries and weather into account, for example, but it is the best system I have seen to rank the football season.

Basically you called me a pompous douchebag after being questioned about your over the top statements. I doubt Phil Massey would even say that his system should solely decide the playoff field. When you state the best teams should be in, and then suggest 7 MVC teams over any SOCON teams, obviously you need reevaluate.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:10 PM
I, can.I'd love to see your work each week. As I noted in an earlier discussion, it must take a lot of paper.

ElCid
November 10th, 2013, 06:11 PM
Yesterday the 7th place MVFC team arguably outplayed but lost to the 4th place BSG. Same MVFC team also handily lost to 3rd BSG. Little other meaningful cross-conference play, so while 7 and 3 might be a stretch, 6 and 3 has merit based on on-field results. When comparing final scores, check for garbage time scoring.

The computers do not measure garbage time scoring or getting the second/third string playing time when the outcome is already decided. Ergo, they are not as accurate as the computer between the ears.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 06:12 PM
Which system do you employ?

I use more of a common sense approach. I wonder what would happen if a team played the top 12 teams in the country and lost every time or went 1-11. I'm guessing your algorythym would likely place them in the top 24.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:13 PM
Basically you called me a pompous douchebag after being questioned about your over the top statements. I doubt Phil Massey would even say that his system should solely decide the playoff field. When you state the best teams should be in, and then suggest 7 MVC teams over any SOCON teams, obviously you need reevaluate.Using the word basically implies that you are simplifying the situation to benefit your argument.
His first name is Kenneth. And, I'm not claiming that he would argue one way or another.
The statements are only "over the top" because they seem far from your understanding.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:18 PM
The computers do not measure garbage time scoring or getting the second/third string playing time when the outcome is already decided. Ergo, they are not as accurate as the computer between the ears.Do you keep a list of these factors to consult? You should share them in a spreadsheet for all of us.

ElCid
November 10th, 2013, 06:19 PM
I'd love to see your work each week. As I noted in an earlier discussion, it must take a lot of paper.

No, its just that I have a near eidetic memory when it comes to how teams have done year to date.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:21 PM
I use more of a common sense approach. I wonder what would happen if a team played the top 12 teams in the country and lost every time or went 1-11. I'm guessing your algorythym would likely place them in the top 24.That might be the case, actually. A system can be gamed, but if the rules are clear as to how one might game it, every team would have the same opportunity to do just that.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:22 PM
No, its just that I have a near eidetic memory when it comes to how teams have done year to date.I've always been jealous of you lot. What have you chosen as a profession?

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 06:23 PM
Using the word basically implies that you are simplifying the situation to benefit your argument.
His first name is Kenneth. And, I'm not claiming that he would argue one way or another.
The statements are only "over the top" because they seem far from your understanding.

Let me try and explain something that you may understand. Your system clearly places far to much weight on strength of schedule. SOS itself cannot even be calculated with any real accuracy. The problem With a system that relies on strength of schedule is that it becomes incestual as conference play begins.

NoDak 4 Ever
November 10th, 2013, 06:25 PM
Let me try and explain something that you may understand. Your system clearly places far to much weight on strength of schedule. SOS itself cannot even be calculated with any real accuracy. The problem With a system that relies on strength of schedule is that it becomes incestual as conference play begins.

Tell that to Lehigh. Oh wait. You're never here that late in the season.

Trust me, it's a thing.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 06:26 PM
That might be the case, actually. A system can be gamed, but if the rules are clear as to how one might game it, every team would have the same opportunity to do just that.

I wasnt saying anyone would do it. I was demonstrating how your system clearly has an absurd reliance on so-called "strength of schedule"

taper
November 10th, 2013, 06:27 PM
The computers do not measure garbage time scoring or getting the second/third string playing time when the outcome is already decided. Ergo, they are not as accurate as the computer between the ears.

A human can't possibly analyze every game in a season, computers can. Humans are better at the big picture. Neither is all that accurate. You need to blend the 2, which is the whole purpose of this entire site.

In this big picture, every computer poll and most humans put the MVFC as the top conference in FCS. We're probably only going to have NDSU and Youngstown make the playoffs. SDSU is the only other one that can hit 8 wins but will probably lose to YSU and get 7. BSG and CAA are talking about 4 each while we get the same number as the PL and OVC. Does this seem right?

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:30 PM
Let me try and explain something that you may understand. Your system clearly places far to much weight on strength of schedule. SOS itself cannot even be calculated with any real accuracy. The problem With a system that relies on strength of schedule is that it becomes incestual as conference play begins.I understand what you are saying. Thank you for explaining it so that I might understand it.
Please let me know how you make your decisions. I'm interested in your common sense approach.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 06:32 PM
I wasnt saying anyone would do it. I was demonstrating how your system clearly has an absurd reliance on so-called "strength of schedule"I understood your point. How do you suggest making a distinction between a 9-2 Lehigh and a 6-4 New Hampshire, for example?

ejjones
November 10th, 2013, 06:34 PM
If SCSU wins out & BCU loose 1; SCSU would get AQ.
fat fingers...typo: If SCSU wins out & BCU lose 1; SCSU would get AQ

Fear the Bird
November 10th, 2013, 06:35 PM
I understood your point. How do you suggest making a distinction between a 9-2 Lehigh and a 6-4 New Hampshire, for example?

Bad example, how about head to head?

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 06:47 PM
I understood your point. How do you suggest making a distinction between a 9-2 Lehigh and a 6-4 New Hampshire, for example?

Lehigh. Simple as that.

NoDak 4 Ever
November 10th, 2013, 06:51 PM
Lehigh. Simple as that.

of course you would. you are taking advantage of an unusually squishy SoCon to claim your first playoff berth since the Reagan administration so why shouldn't you discount SOS?

ElCid
November 10th, 2013, 06:51 PM
I've always been jealous of you lot. What have you chosen as a profession?

It is selective. I do not remember everything, only things I enjoy. And FCS football is one of them. Movies and history are others. I read nearly every box score each week. Only takes an a hour or two. When and how teams score is important. The internet is a wonderful place for information, but not for interpretations always. I rarely read the recaps. The fact that it is on the internet really does not make it true.:) As I have said before, I do not shun the computer rankings, but they are, in the end, just one more data point. And I certainly would not place teams in the playoffs solely based upon a raw computer ranking. It takes the entire psychology out of it as well. For instance, whether teams have just had a bitter loss or a triumphant emotional victory are not accounted for. How would a computer program account for that? Can a computer take "looking ahead" into account? My brain (or heart) can account for it. Sometimes incorrectly, but as good, or better than the computer can.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 06:54 PM
of course you would. you are taking advantage of an unusually squishy SoCon to claim your first playoff berth since the Reagan administration so why shouldn't you discount SOS?

You also have to look at how you did against your schedule. When you played teams and how they were playing at the time.

NoDak 4 Ever
November 10th, 2013, 06:56 PM
You also have to look at how you did against your schedule. When you played teams and how they were playing at the time.

bottom line, you have beaten one of the teams with a winning record you have played.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 07:00 PM
bottom line, you have beaten one of the teams with a winning record you have played.

OK, so we are disqualified. But wait, we haven't lost to a team with a losing record. We also Ned to disqualify every team that has.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 07:06 PM
Bad example, how about head to head?Not a bad example at all, Lehigh will probably finish 9-2, New Hampshire 6-5. I still believe that New Hampshire is the better team even though they lost to Lehigh early in the season.
How do I determine this? Strength of schedule.
The argument is that Lehigh would have had a tougher time with New Hampshire's schedule than New Hampshire did. Vice versa, New Hampshire would have had an easier time with Lehigh's schedule than Lehigh did.

NoDak 4 Ever
November 10th, 2013, 07:07 PM
OK, so we are disqualified. But wait, we haven't lost to a team with a losing record. We also Ned to disqualify every team that has.

Which is why you would likely only make it with the autobid. Actually you would probably still make it. A prime example of the watering down of the tournament field.

Lehigh'98
November 10th, 2013, 07:09 PM
bottom line, you have beaten one of the teams with a winning record you have played.

For all the talk about the big bad MVFC (NDSU excluded because no one will beat them anyway) the next 6 best teams (YSU, SDSU, MoSt, ISUr, SIU and SD) they have a whopping 1 real good OOC win SDSU > SELA at home and 1 mediocre YSU > Duquense. None of these teams have more than 2 good in conf wins. Yet dysto is saying 7 teams should be in top 24. Based on what exactly? If Massey is saying this, the formula needs to be revamped. I would argue the CAA & SLC & BSC are straight up better this year.

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 07:13 PM
For all the talk about the big bad MVFC (NDSU excluded because no one will beat them anyway) the next 6 best teams (YSU, SDSU, MoSt, ISUr, SIU and SD) they have a whopping 1 real good OOC win SDSU > SELA at home and 1 mediocre YSU > Duquense. None of these teams have more than 2 good in conf wins. Yet dysto is saying 7 teams should be in top 24. Based on what exactly? If Massey is saying this, the formula needs to be revamped. I would argue the CAA & SLC & BSC are straight up better this year.Yes. Removing non-participating programs and those not eligible, Massey's algorithm lists 7 MVFC in the top 24.

chattownmocs
November 10th, 2013, 07:14 PM
Which is why you would likely only make it with the autobid. Actually you would probably still make it. A prime example of the watering down of the tournament field.

Do you think the SOS stat is some sort of real tangible evidence of schedule strength.

Bison Fan in NW MN
November 10th, 2013, 07:15 PM
Do you think the SOS stat is some sort of real tangible evidence of schedule strength.


Doesn't really matter where the Mocs end up....1st game loss.

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 07:16 PM
A human can't possibly analyze every game in a season, computers can. Humans are better at the big picture. Neither is all that accurate. You need to blend the 2, which is the whole purpose of this entire site.

In this big picture, every computer poll and most humans put the MVFC as the top conference in FCS. We're probably only going to have NDSU and Youngstown make the playoffs. SDSU is the only other one that can hit 8 wins but will probably lose to YSU and get 7. BSG and CAA are talking about 4 each while we get the same number as the PL and OVC. Does this seem right?

MVFC 3rd Place -Missouri State: 0-4 Out of Conference
MVFC 4th Place - Illinois State: 1-2 OOC (only win over D2)
MVFC 5th Place(tie) - South Dakota: 1-3 OOC (only win over by 3 at home over 7th Place BSC)
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - Southern Ill: 2-2 OOC (with one win over D2)
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - SDSU - 3-1 OOC (good win over SELA)

UNI, SDSU and NDSU have only good OOC wins. Both UNI and SDSU have struggled since opening strong.
Youngstown State played a VERY WEAK OOC.


That is why

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 07:22 PM
MVFC 3rd Place -Missouri State: 0-4 Out of Conference
MVFC 4th Place - Illinois State: 1-2 OOC (only win over D2)
MVFC 5th Place(tie) - South Dakota: 1-3 OOC (only win over by 3 at home over 7th Place BSC)
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - Southern Ill: 2-2 OOC (with one win over D2)
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - SDSU - 3-1 OOC (good win over SELA)

UNI, SDSU and NDSU have only good OOC wins. Both UNI and SDSU have struggled since opening strong.
Youngstown State played a VERY WEAK OOC.
Massey ranks them this way: North Dakota State>Youngstown State>South Dakota State>Southern Illinois>Northern Iowa>Illinois State>Missouri State. These teams are all in the top 24.
OOC schedule unless it's very selective will probably be weaker than conference schedule for the MVFC, so not a good factor to use here, in my opinion.

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 07:26 PM
Yes. Removing non-participating programs and those not eligible, Massey's algorithm lists 7 MVFC in the top 24.


Which is why Massey's algorithm is crap

Engineer86
November 10th, 2013, 07:27 PM
A human can't possibly analyze every game in a season, computers can. Humans are better at the big picture. Neither is all that accurate. You need to blend the 2, which is the whole purpose of this entire site.

In this big picture, every computer poll and most humans put the MVFC as the top conference in FCS. We're probably only going to have NDSU and Youngstown make the playoffs. SDSU is the only other one that can hit 8 wins but will probably lose to YSU and get 7. BSG and CAA are talking about 4 each while we get the same number as the PL and OVC. Does this seem right?

I got this... Absolutely NO!:D

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 07:27 PM
Which is why Massey's algorithm is crapBoom. How do you make your submission decisions?

dystopiamembrane
November 10th, 2013, 07:30 PM
Doesn't really matter where the Mocs end up....1st game loss.I believe in you, Mocs.

dudeitsaid
November 10th, 2013, 07:32 PM
Imagine a tournament with the best teams in the country, barring the Ivy.
MVC -- 7
CAA -- 6
OVC -- 3
BSC -- 3
SLC -- 3
PL -- 1
BSO -- 1

I get what you are saying in your posts. But I don't think the playoffs are about matching the top 24 teams in the country. I personally think trying to create a playoff with the top 24 teams in the country has it's own inherent problems, many of which have already been noted. Ultimately, there is no system to determine the top 24 teams in the country accurately. Heck, just look at all of the disagreement between the plethora of polls trying to rank the top 25! How could we possibly hope to accurately determine the top 24 in FCS?

If there were a perfect system, would it not determine the best 24 at the moment the playoffs begin. But some teams don't hit their stride until the end of the season, after they have already been mathematically eliminated. Maybe they get that star player or two back from injury. Maybe they finally gel as a team. Maybe a coaching change has a dramatic effect. Hypothetically, some of those other teams have great records because they haven't played any strong competition wouldn't beat that mathematically eliminated team on their best day.

The current system is about following the parameters of FCS football to earn your shot to play the field for a championship. I don't know of many playoffs that are set up to pit the "top #" of teams against one another. All that I've seen are about winning divisions, earning wild card spots, etc, but in most scenarios, certain conferences, leagues, divisions, etc are weaker than others. Should they not be allowed to play? There are always some who feel they shouldn't. But show me a better way to determine a champion on the field.

Maybe some of these teams don't play the same strength of schedule, but we've seen in the playoffs some of those same teams make some noise (Colgate? Lehigh? Often told they don't belong because they don't play a strong enough schedule).

Personally, though our playoff system isn't perfect, it adds a lot of intrigue to the game. It is awesome to see the underdog come out on top a time or two every year. Some great teams always get left out. But as it's been said, if you want to punch your ticket, take care of business within the parameters that are set forth.

Engineer86
November 10th, 2013, 07:33 PM
Not a bad example at all, Lehigh will probably finish 9-2, New Hampshire 6-5. I still believe that New Hampshire is the better team even though they lost to Lehigh early in the season.
How do I determine this? Strength of schedule.
The argument is that Lehigh would have had a tougher time with New Hampshire's schedule than New Hampshire did. Vice versa, New Hampshire would have had an easier time with Lehigh's schedule than Lehigh did.

This is the perfect example why computer models are tools, and no better than informed judgement. The teams played and the Lehigh win was not some fluke that day. They plain beat UNH. On another day UNH could very well win, but to discount a win on the field and how the actual games played out is a mistake in my opinion.

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 07:35 PM
Massey ranks them this way: North Dakota State>Youngstown State>South Dakota State>Southern Illinois>Northern Iowa>Illinois State>Missouri State. These teams are all in the top 24.
OOC schedule unless it's very selective will probably be weaker than conference schedule for the MVFC, so not a good factor to use here, in my opinion.


So basically, real life means nothing to you.

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 07:36 PM
Boom. How do you make your submission decisions?


Using a variety of tools. An algorithm that ranks 7 MVFC teams in the top 24 is not one of them.

Engineer86
November 10th, 2013, 07:39 PM
Massey ranks them this way: North Dakota State>Youngstown State>South Dakota State>Southern Illinois>Northern Iowa>Illinois State>Missouri State. These teams are all in the top 24.
OOC schedule unless it's very selective will probably be weaker than conference schedule for the MVFC, so not a good factor to use here, in my opinion.

To be considered a strong conference don't you have to beat teams from other conferences??? Just beating in conference teams makes no difference real active to other conferences. It seems that the system is ranking teams based on in conference games. Based on what is posted above, I find it hard to believe 7 teams are in the top 24. That said there is clearly more than 2, and should definitely be more than the PL.

Lehigh'98
November 10th, 2013, 07:40 PM
Yes. Removing non-participating programs and those not eligible, Massey's algorithm lists 7 MVFC in the top 24.

And I'm telling you this is just flat out wrong. My method of determining this was looking at those 7 teams and calculating how many good wins each team has. Take NDSU out and it's shockingly low.

taper
November 10th, 2013, 07:42 PM
MVFC 3rd Place -Missouri State: 0-4 Out of Conference 2 score loss to Iowa, 1 score loss to 3 midpack FCS. Agreed not that impressive but winning is a novel concept at MSU.
MVFC 4th Place - Illinois State: 1-2 OOC (only win over D2) Loss to FBS and #2 EIU. No fault there.
MVFC 5th Place(tie) - South Dakota: 1-3 OOC (only win over by 3 at home over 7th Place BSC) FBS loss and 1 score loss to #12 NAU and #14 Mont. Strong showing.
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - Southern Ill: 2-2 OOC (with one win over D2) Close loss to FBS, OT loss to #2 EIU. Very strong.
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - SDSU - 3-1 OOC (good win over SELA) FBS loss.

UNI, SDSU and NDSU have only good OOC wins. Both UNI and SDSU have struggled since opening strong.
Youngstown State played a VERY WEAK OOC.


That is why

1 score losses to AGS ranked teams. UNI has an FBS win and absolutely destroyed #15 McNeese before injuries decimated their team. Losing to a team ranked in the teens doesn't mean you can't still be top 25.

Sir William
November 10th, 2013, 07:52 PM
I get what you are saying in your posts. But I don't think the playoffs are about matching the top 24 teams in the country. I personally think trying to create a playoff with the top 24 teams in the country has it's own inherent problems, many of which have already been noted. Ultimately, there is no system to determine the top 24 teams in the country accurately. Heck, just look at all of the disagreement between the plethora of polls trying to rank the top 25! How could we possibly hope to accurately determine the top 24 in FCS?

If there were a perfect system, would it not determine the best 24 at the moment the playoffs begin. But some teams don't hit their stride until the end of the season, after they have already been mathematically eliminated. Maybe they get that star player or two back from injury. Maybe they finally gel as a team. Maybe a coaching change has a dramatic effect. Hypothetically, some of those other teams have great records because they haven't played any strong competition wouldn't beat that mathematically eliminated team on their best day.

The current system is about following the parameters of FCS football to earn your shot to play the field for a championship. I don't know of many playoffs that are set up to pit the "top #" of teams against one another. All that I've seen are about winning divisions, earning wild card spots, etc, but in most scenarios, certain conferences, leagues, divisions, etc are weaker than others. Should they not be allowed to play? There are always some who feel they shouldn't. But show me a better way to determine a champion on the field.

Maybe some of these teams don't play the same strength of schedule, but we've seen in the playoffs some of those same teams make some noise (Colgate? Lehigh? Often told they don't belong because they don't play a strong enough schedule).

Personally, though our playoff system isn't perfect, it adds a lot of intrigue to the game. It is awesome to see the underdog come out on top a time or two every year. Some great teams always get left out. But as it's been said, if you want to punch your ticket, take care of business within the parameters that are set forth.

+1

Lehigh'98
November 10th, 2013, 07:55 PM
1 score losses to AGS ranked teams. UNI has an FBS win and absolutely destroyed #15 McNeese before injuries decimated their team. Losing to a team ranked in the teens doesn't mean you can't still be top 25.

You are basing your argument on losses. You don't see the problem with that???

Professor Chaos
November 10th, 2013, 08:01 PM
MVFC 3rd Place -Missouri State: 0-4 Out of Conference
MVFC 4th Place - Illinois State: 1-2 OOC (only win over D2)
MVFC 5th Place(tie) - South Dakota: 1-3 OOC (only win over by 3 at home over 7th Place BSC)
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - Southern Ill: 2-2 OOC (with one win over D2)
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - SDSU - 3-1 OOC (good win over SELA)

UNI, SDSU and NDSU have only good OOC wins. Both UNI and SDSU have struggled since opening strong.
Youngstown State played a VERY WEAK OOC.


That is why
Show me 4 OOC wins from the Big Sky (or any other conference for that matter) that are as impressive as Kansas St, Iowa St, McNeese St, and SE Louisiana. I agree that 7 teams is ludicrous but the OOC resume of the MVFC is as good or better than any conference in the country.

BattinRam
November 10th, 2013, 08:04 PM
MO St lost it's starting RB on the 3rd play from scrimmage to open the season. Still lost by a combined score of 16 points to those teams while trying to revamp their style. A dropped pass in the endzone against at the time the 4th ranked team in FCS is how close the Bears were to winning those games. Now that they have their RB back 4 games ago the Bears are undefeated and may finish in 2nd place in the MVFC. All I'm saying is that the MVFC deserves at least 3 teams in, are you not going to take the 2nd place team if that is where they finish.

taper
November 10th, 2013, 08:08 PM
You are basing your argument on losses. You don't see the problem with that???

I would expect #20ish to have a close loss to #12. For example, SIU lost to the current #1, #2, #8, an FBS, and 3rd place in the conference. Most of those were very close games. They're ranked #22 in AGS. Yes it's 5 losses but the voters of this site recognize they're still a good team. Do you disagree with this poll?

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 10th, 2013, 08:12 PM
I would expect #20ish to have a close loss to #12. For example, SIU lost to the current #1, #2, #8, an FBS, and 3rd place in the conference. Most of those were very close games. They're ranked #22 in AGS. Yes it's 5 losses but the voters of this site recognize they're still a good team. Do you disagree with this poll?

SIU was ranked with 4 losses. They won't be ranked this week....

ysubigred
November 10th, 2013, 08:21 PM
MVFC 3rd Place -Missouri State: 0-4 Out of Conference
MVFC 4th Place - Illinois State: 1-2 OOC (only win over D2)
MVFC 5th Place(tie) - South Dakota: 1-3 OOC (only win over by 3 at home over 7th Place BSC)
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - Southern Ill: 2-2 OOC (with one win over D2)
MVFC 5th Place (tie) - SDSU - 3-1 OOC (good win over SELA)

UNI, SDSU and NDSU have only good OOC wins. Both UNI and SDSU have struggled since opening strong.
Youngstown State played a VERY WEAK OOC.


That is why

The OOC for YSU is no weaker than playing in the SLC... Just sayin xeyebrowx

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 08:24 PM
Show me 4 OOC wins from the Big Sky (or any other conference for that matter) that are as impressive as Kansas St, Iowa St, McNeese St, and SE Louisiana. I agree that 7 teams is ludicrous but the OOC resume of the MVFC is as good or better than any conference in the country.

Those are four good wins - but not enough to say most of the MVFC is in the top 25
I gave credit to SDSU for the SELA win. UNI has two of those wins, but they aren't the same team that one those.

And no one is discounting NDSU.

dbackjon
November 10th, 2013, 08:25 PM
The OOC for YSU is no weaker than playing in the SLC... Just sayin xeyebrowx


Two Pioneer and one NEC is not the same as the SLC...

Lehigh'98
November 10th, 2013, 08:29 PM
Those are four good wins - but not enough to say most of the MVFC is in the top 25
I gave credit to SDSU for the SELA win. UNI has two of those wins, but they aren't the same team that one those.

And no one is discounting NDSU.

Precisely, take out NDSU and UNI ( 5 conf losses) and you are left with 1 quality OOC win. Not real impressive

taper
November 10th, 2013, 08:36 PM
Let's back away from that 7 teams in statement. That's pushing it a little too far. NDSU and YSU for sure, MSU and SDSU should be getting votes. SIU, USD, and MSU are better than their record. SIU should win out and get votes by season's end. That's a solid 3-5 in the top 25 and we're probably getting 2 in the 24 team field.

Mr. C
November 10th, 2013, 08:51 PM
Mr. Membrane loses credibility when he picks New Hampshire over Lehigh when Lehigh clearly out-played the Wildcats head-to-head. I was at the game and have seen Lehigh and UNH play twice head-to-head in the past three seasons. Lehigh is clearly better. UNH is somewhat fortune to even be in the discussion now. The Wildcats should have lost to Villanova. I don't see the UNH defense having much chance at all of knocking off Maine, which has clearly been the best team in the CAA this season by a long shot.

I'm with dbackjon on the subject of strength of schedule. I've had problems for years with the way Massey over-emphasizes this. There are also not enough inter-conference matchups for the computers to be able to accurately measure strength of schedule, like you can do with FBS. This allows for a bad team from a league like the MVFC (not picking on this conference, just using it as an example) to get a HUGE boost when someone like North Dakota State beat a Kansas State. NDSU, BTW, has been one of the few MVFC teams to make a playoff impact.

At some point, like someone else pointed out, you have to win some games.

Tribal
November 10th, 2013, 08:58 PM
According to my computational analysis, we'll all know more in 9 days.

taper
November 10th, 2013, 09:06 PM
Precisely, take out NDSU and UNI ( 5 conf losses) and you are left with 1 quality OOC win. Not real impressive

Patriot League: Those eligible for AQ have 1 quality OOC win. Same OOC beat your likely conference champ. Lots of bad losses. Your AQ will probably have a losing record.
CAA: 2 FBS wins, nothing else noteworthy. Some bad losses.
Southland: 2 FBS wins. SHSU beat EWU, NW and UCA beat Missouri State, SFA beat Mont St who was missing it's star QB.
Big Sky: 3 FBS wins. Lots of bad losses.

Nobody has outstanding OOC wins.

Cocky
November 10th, 2013, 09:21 PM
Show me 4 OOC wins from the Big Sky (or any other conference for that matter) that are as impressive as Kansas St, Iowa St, McNeese St, and SE Louisiana. I agree that 7 teams is ludicrous but the OOC resume of the MVFC is as good or better than any conference in the country.

OVC has wins against the second place team in the Mountain West, 3 teams who are leading their FCS conferences and a win against Ga State who might be the only FBS team worse than Iowa St. This doesn't count the wins against teams currently 3rd, 4th and 5th in the MVC. Six different teams won these games even if some aren't too impressive.

taper
November 10th, 2013, 09:46 PM
OVC has wins against the second place team in the Mountain West, 3 teams who are leading their FCS conferences and a win against Ga State who might be the only FBS team worse than Iowa St. This doesn't count the wins against teams currently 3rd, 4th and 5th in the MVC. Six different teams won these games even if some aren't too impressive.

I'm impressed with the OVC this year. You'll get 2, maybe 3 in but at least 4 would probably win a game. EIU is head of the class but there's a lot of talent out there.

BTW, did you know JSU is one of 3 teams with a winning series record against NDSU in the modern era?

ElCid
November 10th, 2013, 10:18 PM
Let's back away from that 7 teams in statement. That's pushing it a little too far. NDSU and YSU for sure, MSU and SDSU should be getting votes. SIU, USD, and MSU are better than their record. SIU should win out and get votes by season's end. That's a solid 3-5 in the top 25 and we're probably getting 2 in the 24 team field.

But that is the point. They may be, I think SIU is at least, but not where it counts--Ws and Ls. I could say the same thing about The Citadel. I know we are better than our record, now. But not when it counted. Win and nobody will argue with you when you win. Lose, and you give up any legitimate right to say how good you really are. It is a simple concept that frustrates the most ardent fan.

ElCid
November 10th, 2013, 10:19 PM
According to my computational analysis, we'll all know more in 9 days.

I think this might have been lost on most folks.xlolx

KWCAT
November 11th, 2013, 12:24 AM
According to my computational analysis, we'll all know more in 9 days.

even more in 13!xlolx

Grizzlies82
November 11th, 2013, 12:26 AM
even more in 13!xlolx

However, think of all the time we have saved by sorting it all out now.

KWCAT
November 11th, 2013, 12:38 AM
However, think of all the time we have saved by sorting it all out now.


The committee WILL appreciate it!xrolleyesx

PAllen
November 11th, 2013, 06:15 AM
Show me 4 OOC wins from the Big Sky (or any other conference for that matter) that are as impressive as Kansas St, Iowa St, McNeese St, and SE Louisiana. I agree that 7 teams is ludicrous but the OOC resume of the MVFC is as good or better than any conference in the country.

No, the OOC resume of NDSU is impressive. The rest leave much to be desired. If a one score loss counts as a win, there are a whole lot of undefeated and one loss teams out there.

dystopiamembrane
November 11th, 2013, 06:45 AM
Mr. Membrane loses credibility when he picks New Hampshire over Lehigh when Lehigh clearly out-played the Wildcats head-to-head.First of all, my father is Mr. Membrane. Please call me dystopia.


I'm with dbackjon on the subject of strength of schedule. I've had problems for years with the way Massey over-emphasizes this. There are also not enough inter-conference matchups for the computers to be able to accurately measure strength of schedule, like you can do with FBS.I get the concept, but I don't think I understand the issue. Conferences are arbitrary. Why would it matter how many inter- vs intra-conference matches there are? Why do we think the MVFC is a power conference? Is it because they are insular or because they have great teams?
I honestly don't understand. I'm kind of dim. Please explain further.

dystopiamembrane
November 11th, 2013, 07:08 AM
Hey, look at this one I found! composite ranking (http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm)
I think it might feel closer to on-field reality for you.
Still has New Hampshire 13 spots higher than Lehigh, though. I guess my father still loses credibility.**

I list the top 24 below, removing the Ivy and ODU. If there were no AQs, these are the players we might see. A moving tournament from 1st round to the final, but I accept the excitement that is the AQ underdog and am willing to accept that MSU, UNH, SIU and UNI (last four in) might not get in to make room for the BSo, NEC, Pioneer and PL champs.

MVFC 5 - NDSU, YSU, SDSU, UNI, SIU
CAA 5 - Maine, W&M, Towson, Villanova, UNH
BSC 4 - EWU, UM, NAU, MSU
OVC 3 - EIU, JSU, TSU
SLC 3 - SELA, SHSU, McNeese
BSo 1 - Coastal
PL 1 - Fordham
MEAC 1 - B-C
SC 1 - Chattanooga

**Note, ranking one team over another indicates, in my opinion, that the higher ranked team would have on average performed better with the lower ranked team's schedule than that lower ranked team performed. Vice versa.
13 spots is not a gigantic difference, but it is significant.

gotts
November 11th, 2013, 07:12 AM
No, the OOC resume of NDSU is impressive. The rest leave much to be desired. If a one score loss counts as a win, there are a whole lot of undefeated and one loss teams out there.

No, the OOC resume of UNI is impressive, they just hit a series of unfortunate events come conference play.

PaladinFan
November 11th, 2013, 07:37 AM
Who have you beaten that neither chattanooga or Samford have?

That's not the question. If Furman/Samford/UTC all end up 6-2, the first tie breaker is won/loss records against one another. In that case, each team would be 1-1 (Furman beat Samford, UTC beat Furman, Samford beats UTC). Tie not broken.

The next step is to consider "each teams record against the highest seeded team not involved in the tie..." We won't know that until the season is over, but we can assume that Georgia Southern (who beat UTC) and the Citadel (who beat Samford) will be seeded higher than Elon (who beat Furman). Therefore, Furman would get the bid by virtue of beating two higher seeded teams that beat UTC and Samford, respectively (that is, Furman beat Georgia Southern and the Citadel, and both of those teams will finish with a better record than Elon).

Where I think it gets really interesting is what happens if Furman wins out (WCU and Woff), Samford wins out (UTC and Elon), and UTC loses out (Samford and Bama). Not inconceivable, really. In that scenario, Furman is in by virtue of the auto bid, and then you'd have 8-4 Samford and 8-4 UTC. That scenario would make me highly uncomfortable as a UTC fan, particularly considering Samford would have just beaten the Mocs.

All that aside, no team in the country may have more pressure to win this week than UTC. If they win, all of this goes away and they are likely the SoCon's lone playoff team. If they do not win, then there are scenarios where UTC doesn't go to the post season at all.

Professor Chaos
November 11th, 2013, 07:44 AM
No, the OOC resume of NDSU is impressive. The rest leave much to be desired. If a one score loss counts as a win, there are a whole lot of undefeated and one loss teams out there.

The only thing NDSU did out of conference was beat K State. There isn't much impressiveness about beating Delaware St and Ferris St (D2). UNI beat Iowa St and McNeese St and SDSU beat SELA. Again, show me a league with 4 better OOC wins than that. Playing so many good teams out of conference is what made schedule strength for the MVFC which is why it is at the top of pretty much any computer ranking out there but the conference has won their fair share of those games.

Cocky
November 11th, 2013, 07:56 AM
I'm impressed with the OVC this year. You'll get 2, maybe 3 in but at least 4 would probably win a game. EIU is head of the class but there's a lot of talent out there.

BTW, did you know JSU is one of 3 teams with a winning series record against NDSU in the modern era? Cant remember ever losing to NDSU. Hope we get a chance this year.

ysubigred
November 11th, 2013, 09:36 AM
Two Pioneer and one NEC is not the same as the SLC...

Your right.. Probably harder than your SLC bottom feeders xsmiley_wix

AmsterBison
November 11th, 2013, 10:03 AM
Cant remember ever losing to NDSU. Hope we get a chance this year.

You haven't lost to NDSU.

In the last 50 years, NDSU has losing records to 11 teams (9 teams are 1-0, Jacksonville State is 2-0, Youngstown State is 4-3.) Jacksonville State is the only team to have played NDSU more than once without having an L to show for it in the last 50 years.

There aren't many teams that have played NDSU twice or more without having a loss.

Nova09
November 11th, 2013, 10:40 AM
Lose, and you give up any legitimate right to say how good you really are.

Wait, isn't the whole point that we're trying to determine who the best teams are despite the fact that not all wins are equal and not all losses are equal? And some have played a more difficult schedule than others? Are you really arguing we should just go by record, regardless of the schedule used to compile that record?

To take it to a further extreme, say hypothetically we had some omnipotent knowledge one year of how every team was in relation to each other, before they even played any games. And in this world, the team we know beforehand is the 15th best team in the country has a schedule that forces them to play 7 teams ahead of them. And they lose to all 7 of those teams. Is that team no longer the 15th best team? I get why you might not rank them 15 anymore, and that is perfectly valid if that fits your ranking criteria, but that's not what dystopia is arguing. He is saying the computers can analyze the data better (not perfectly) to determine which teams have done "better" relativistically, the same way computers have proven better at predicting weather patterns and stock trends and anything else that boils down to a bunch of quantitative data points.

ElCid
November 11th, 2013, 11:13 AM
Wait, isn't the whole point that we're trying to determine who the best teams are despite the fact that not all wins are equal and not all losses are equal? And some have played a more difficult schedule than others? Are you really arguing we should just go by record, regardless of the schedule used to compile that record?

To take it to a further extreme, say hypothetically we had some omnipotent knowledge one year of how every team was in relation to each other, before they even played any games. And in this world, the team we know beforehand is the 15th best team in the country has a schedule that forces them to play 7 teams ahead of them. And they lose to all 7 of those teams. Is that team no longer the 15th best team? I get why you might not rank them 15 anymore, and that is perfectly valid if that fits your ranking criteria, but that's not what dystopia is arguing. He is saying the computers can analyze the data better (not perfectly) to determine which teams have done "better" relativistically, the same way computers have proven better at predicting weather patterns and stock trends and anything else that boils down to a bunch of quantitative data points.

No of course not. I get the point and it seems logical when we take it to the extreme examples, but that does not work in the normal course of the year. My point is that arguing that a 4-6 or a 5-5 team are really great and should be ranked or considered for the playoffs because the computer says so is, well, really silly. Teams with those kind of records may be good teams, but they do not belong in the discussion, other than to gage wins/loses of other teams. For example, N Iowa is a good team. Should they be ranked? No. They may end up in my final poll if they win a couple more because I think they are a good team. But not yet. Also, will I penalize Youngstown this week for losing to them like I would if they had lost to a 5-5 Gardner Webb (no offense to G-W). No. And I don't need a computer to figure that out.

Nova09
November 11th, 2013, 11:22 AM
No of course not. I get the point and it seems logical when we take it to the extreme examples, but that does not work in the normal course of the year. My point is that arguing that a 4-6 or a 5-5 team are really great and should be ranked or considered for the playoffs because the computer says so is, well, really silly. Teams with those kind of records may be good teams, but they do not belong in the discussion, other than to gage wins/loses of other teams. For example, N Iowa is a good team. Should they be ranked? No. They may end up in my final poll if they win a couple more because I think they are a good team. But not yet. Also, will I penalize Youngstown this week for losing to them like I would if they had lost to a 5-5 Gardner Webb (no offense to G-W). No. And I don't need a computer to figure that out.

Well then I think the issue is you and dystopia are arguing completely different things. You are arguing that a 5-5 team does not deserve to be in your ranking, regardless of who they played to get to 5-5, and that is perfectly fine. Dystopia is arguing that a 5-5 team could still be one of the best 24 teams int he nation, and he is postulating what the playoff field would look like if the criteria were just "pick the 24 best teams" which, of course, is both not how it works nor is it possible.

Nova09
November 11th, 2013, 11:30 AM
This is the perfect example why computer models are tools, and no better than informed judgement. The teams played and the Lehigh win was not some fluke that day. They plain beat UNH. On another day UNH could very well win, but to discount a win on the field and how the actual games played out is a mistake in my opinion.

Try to make a ranking system that fits the criteria "Any given team shall be ranked ahead of every team it has beaten" Trust me, the odds of it being possible in any particular season are insignificant

PAllen
November 11th, 2013, 12:04 PM
Wait, isn't the whole point that we're trying to determine who the best teams are despite the fact that not all wins are equal and not all losses are equal? And some have played a more difficult schedule than others? Are you really arguing we should just go by record, regardless of the schedule used to compile that record?

To take it to a further extreme, say hypothetically we had some omnipotent knowledge one year of how every team was in relation to each other, before they even played any games. And in this world, the team we know beforehand is the 15th best team in the country has a schedule that forces them to play 7 teams ahead of them. And they lose to all 7 of those teams. Is that team no longer the 15th best team? I get why you might not rank them 15 anymore, and that is perfectly valid if that fits your ranking criteria, but that's not what dystopia is arguing. He is saying the computers can analyze the data better (not perfectly) to determine which teams have done "better" relativistically, the same way computers have proven better at predicting weather patterns and stock trends and anything else that boils down to a bunch of quantitative data points.

Of course not. The issue is that some are arguing that we should take into account the schedule, regardless of the record compiled against that schedule. For ridiculous examples, playing and losing by two scores to Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State, and Texas, while racking up wins against a DII and three lower half pioneer teams does not make you a world beater. It only shows that you are better than the lower half of the pioneer and a DII school. However, many computer rankings, and some in this discussion would say that the above scenario should make you a lock for the top 25 and inclusion in an "ideal" playoff.

Nova09
November 11th, 2013, 01:39 PM
Of course not. The issue is that some are arguing that we should take into account the schedule, regardless of the record compiled against that schedule. For ridiculous examples, playing and losing by two scores to Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State, and Texas, while racking up wins against a DII and three lower half pioneer teams does not make you a world beater. It only shows that you are better than the lower half of the pioneer and a DII school. However, many computer rankings, and some in this discussion would say that the above scenario should make you a lock for the top 25 and inclusion in an "ideal" playoff.

No computer ranking would have your hypothetical team in the top 25, and no human would argue for it. But a team like Villanova (choosing them because I know them very well and they fit our criteria, not because I think they should be ranked/deserve a playoff spot) can go 2-2 against top 10 teams and also have a loss at a BCS school, and I/computers would conclude they are competitively just about as "good" as those top 10 teams they had mixed results against.

I truly believe there is not a team in the country besides NDSU who could get through Villanova's schedule without 4 losses. I'm not arguing that we should be included in any polls or any playoff discussion, but we are one of the 24 best teams. Humans get hung up on the 5 losses, computers don't. Dystopia says we would be in the playoffs if the sole goal was to try to get the 24 best teams in the playoff field; I don't see how you can argue that.

TexasTerror
November 11th, 2013, 05:18 PM
Incarnate Word does not count as a D1 school until next year and is basically a non-conference scheduling agreement game this year.

Also, I screwed up on the HBU game, I keep thinking of Abilene Christian and saying Houston Baptist. HBU does count as a D1 game this year.

HBU is a NON-CLASSIFIED school similar to South Alabama in their first year of football. They do not count as an NCAA Division I opponent for purposes of scheduling. End of story.

superman7515
November 11th, 2013, 09:57 PM
HBU is a NON-CLASSIFIED school similar to South Alabama in their first year of football. They do not count as an NCAA Division I opponent for purposes of scheduling. End of story.

Thanks TT. In that case, SHSU can't afford a loss.

McNeese72
November 12th, 2013, 07:59 AM
Thanks TT. In that case, SHSU can't afford a loss.

Question. Is the number of Div I wins rule an iron clad rule or is it just a recommendation?


Doc

superman7515
November 12th, 2013, 08:17 AM
It's not an ironclad rule, but they've never gone against it, and as long as there are solid 8 win options out there, I don't see this being the year.

fmrbearkat
November 12th, 2013, 09:16 AM
It's not an ironclad rule, but they've never gone against it, and as long as there are solid 8 win options out there, I don't see this being the year.

Even with one more loss SHSU would be 9-3 7(d1 wins) and would be in the field. There are not many 8 fcs win options out there and there's sure not 24 teams better than SHSU! Would the socon, pioneer, nec, patriot, or big south runner ups be more qualified than a 9-3 team with losses to FBS top ten and top 10 McNeese and SELA (probable final rankings would be top 10 if SELA beat us). I sure don't think so. Who knows though....I'd say our boys won't put it to chance and they will win both games so the seniors can play at home a couple more times!

superman7515
November 12th, 2013, 09:36 AM
Would the socon, pioneer, nec, patriot, or big south runner ups be more qualified than a 9-3 team with losses to FBS top ten and top 10 McNeese and SELA (probable final rankings would be top 10 if SELA beat us).

The Pioneer and NEC are only getting 1 team in, and I feel that as things stand this moment, the SoCon is only getting in 1 as well. The Patriot is getting two in, and while SHSU even with two more losses is better than the probable PL autobid, they are still getting in because of the autobid thanks to Fordham being ineligible. The Big South runner up is a top 15 team, both Coastal and Charleston are in the top 15 right now, so if they both win out that won't change. The committee isn't leaving out a Top 15 team with 9 or 10 D1 wins for a team with 7 D1 wins. SHSU would be competing for the final spots with South Dakota State, Delaware, William & Mary, Jacksonville State, Montana State, and Southern Utah, all of which would have more D1 wins; they aren't competing against runner-ups from the NEC, PFL, etc with no playoff history.

fmrbearkat
November 12th, 2013, 09:50 AM
Yeah brain fart on forgetting Charleston was in the big south. Although I believe both them and coastal will get badly exposed once they get a round with a MVFC or Southland school. Big sky as well but due to geography I don't think they will get that far. I may be wrong but that's my thoughts on them.

fmrbearkat
November 12th, 2013, 09:54 AM
Yeah brain fart on forgetting Charleston was in the big south. Although I believe both them and coastal will get badly exposed once they get a round with a MVFC or Southland school. Big sky as well but due to geography I don't think they will get that far. I may be wrong but that's my thoughts on them.

And for the record I hope I'm wrong. Love to see schools break through and prove people's perceptions wrong!

superman7515
November 12th, 2013, 10:37 AM
Understood, and don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that SHSU isn't a good team or anything, but with the scheduling situation they were put in, it leaves very little breathing room.

Wallace
November 12th, 2013, 10:48 AM
More fodder... (http://www.collegesportingnews.com/content.php?1006-2013-Gridiron-Power-Index-(GPI)-Movements-Abound-Behind-1-NDSU)

4 - BSC
4 - CAA
4 - MVFC
3 - SLC
2 - PL
2 - OVC
1 - BSO
1 - MEAC
1 - NEC
1 - PFL
1 - SOCON
* - top ranked team in the conference

11/11/2013 GPI TOP 25
Rank, School (Rating)
*1. N Dakota St (1.00)
*2. E Illinois (2.00)
*3. E Washington (3.57)
*4. Maine (5.57)
*5. SE Louisiana (6.43)
*12T. Coastal Carolina (12.86)
*19T. Bethune-Cookman (21.57)
*28. Chattanooga (25.43)
*40. Lehigh (36.29)
*51. Sacred Heart (42.71)
*59. San Diego (49.00)
6. Sam Houston St (8.14)
7. McNeese St (9.43)
8T. Towson (10.14)
8T. Fordham (10.14)
10. Youngstown St (10.29)
11. Montana (11.43)
12T. William & Mary (12.86)
14. Northern Arizona (16.14)
15. Villanova (17.86)
16. S Dakota St (18.14)
17. Jacksonville St (18.57)
19T. Northern Iowa (21.57)
22. Montana St (22.14)

dbackjon
November 12th, 2013, 11:00 AM
Understood, and don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that SHSU isn't a good team or anything, but with the scheduling situation they were put in, it leaves very little breathing room.

It's a tough situation to be placed in. NAU knows that all to well - last year 8-3, with a FBS win, but only 7 DI wins. We sat home.

fmrbearkat
November 12th, 2013, 11:36 AM
It's a tough situation to be placed in. NAU knows that all to well - last year 8-3, with a FBS win, but only 7 DI wins. We sat home.

With 4 more teams in the field I would bet y'all would have been in last year! Flagstaff is one place I would hate to play! Probably even more of a home field advantage that WaGriz in December, NDSU anytime, or Huntsville in September! You just can't prepare for 7k feet!!

dbackjon
November 12th, 2013, 11:54 AM
With 4 more teams in the field I would bet y'all would have been in last year! Flagstaff is one place I would hate to play! Probably even more of a home field advantage that WaGriz in December, NDSU anytime, or Huntsville in September! You just can't prepare for 7k feet!!

I would have to assume that NAU was one of the last two out.

The elevation can be an advantage if you don't have depth.

superman7515
November 12th, 2013, 12:53 PM
You just can't prepare for 7k feet!!

They were talking about this with Denver last week and players and coaches (MLB, NFL, and NBA) were saying that the effects of altitude are completely overblown and media driven. They were doing a bunch of different interviews and not one player or coach, and they were talking to a bunch of really experienced guys, was able to think of a single player not named Ryan Clark from their team or any other who had been negatively affected on the field by the altitude. Claimed that athletes in college and the pros are too well conditioned for it to have any real affect and that it was just an excuse used by reporters or a way to hype up a game.

dbackjon
November 12th, 2013, 12:56 PM
They were talking about this with Denver last week and players and coaches (MLB, NFL, and NBA) were saying that the effects of altitude are completely overblown and media driven. They were doing a bunch of different interviews and not one player or coach, and they were talking to a bunch of really experienced guys, was able to think of a single player not named Ryan Clark from their team or any other who had been negatively affected on the field by the altitude. Claimed that athletes in college and the pros are too well conditioned for it to have any real affect and that it was just an excuse used by reporters or a way to hype up a game.

NAU is another 1,800 feet up :)

There is an effect - and it gets greater as the game goes by. If you have depth, and are well-conditioned, probably not huge factor. More so for linemen.

Grizalltheway
November 12th, 2013, 12:58 PM
With 4 more teams in the field I would bet y'all would have been in last year! Flagstaff is one place I would hate to play! Probably even more of a home field advantage that WaGriz in December, NDSU anytime, or Huntsville in September! You just can't prepare for 7k feet!!

Let's not go crazy here. xcoffeex

fmrbearkat
November 12th, 2013, 01:04 PM
They were talking about this with Denver last week and players and coaches (MLB, NFL, and NBA) were saying that the effects of altitude are completely overblown and media driven. They were doing a bunch of different interviews and not one player or coach, and they were talking to a bunch of really experienced guys, was able to think of a single player not named Ryan Clark from their team or any other who had been negatively affected on the field by the altitude. Claimed that athletes in college and the pros are too well conditioned for it to have any real affect and that it was just an excuse used by reporters or a way to hype up a game.

Thats bs!! I played in flagstaff in 2002 and going from sea level to 7k feet was absolutely horrible!! Before walk through on Friday we would jog 400 yards, I made it 200 and walked the other 200. It was incredibly hard to catch your breath!

fmrbearkat
November 12th, 2013, 01:13 PM
Let's not go crazy here. xcoffeex

Wagriz is loud but if you figure out a way to communicate it can be overcome. If you can't breath your screwed! Don't get me wrong WaGriz was crazy but fun...kinda! That altitude was pure misery...given I was a 320lb OL.

superman7515
November 12th, 2013, 01:14 PM
Hey, I'm not saying it's right or wrong, just what the players/coaches said during one of ESPN's many stroke-Peyton-on-the-backside infomercials they pass off as journalism.