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ITmonarch10
November 17th, 2012, 11:06 PM
Thoughts.....


*Snubbed due to Div 2 wins
Wofford (8-3)
Stony Brook (8-3)
N. Arizona (8-3)
Towson (7-4)

*UNH over Wofford
*EKY sneaks in once again
*Lehigh over Stony Brook
*NDSU and Sam Houston rematch


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AUTOMATIC BIDS

E. Washington (Big Sky)

Coastal Carolina(Big South)

Villanova (CAA)

Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)

North Dakota St.(MVFC)

Wagner (NEC)

E. Illinois (OVC)

Colgate (Patriot)

Georgia Southern (Southern)

Central Arkansas (Southland)


AT-LARGE BIDS

Appalachian St. (8-3)
Cal Poly (9-2)
Illinois St. (8-3)
Lehigh (10-1)
Montana St. (10-1)
New Hampshire (8-3)
Old Dominion (10-1)
Richmond (8-3)
Sam Houston St. (8-3)
South Dakota St. (8-3)


BUBBLE BURST

Wofford (8-3)

Stony Brook (8-3)

N. Arizona (8-3)

Towson (7-4)


NEXT FOUR OUT

Albany (9-2)

Youngstown St. (7-4)

The Citadel (7-4)

UT-Martin (8-3)


PAST BRACKETS

Week 11 (http://nobowls.com/week-11-the-bracket-before-the-bracket.html)

Week 10 (http://nobowls.com/week-10-welcome-back-appalachian-state.html)

Week 9 (http://nobowls.com/week-9-north-dakota-state-reclaims-top-spot.html)

Week 8 (http://nobowls.com/week-8-wofford-back-in-the-top-five.html)

Week 7 (http://nobowls.com/week-7-huge-shake-up-in-the-top-seeds.html)

Week 6 (http://nobowls.com/week-6-youngstown-st-trounced-in-fargo.html)

Week 5 (http://nobowls.com/week-5-north-dakota-st-enters-as-top-seed.html)


ABOUT

Since its inception in 2008, NoBowls has correctly predicted 70 of the 72 teams selected to participate in the FCS postseason. Resident bracketologist Erik Pitzer (erik@nobowls.com) strives to provide weekly bias-free predictions heavily rooted in the same criteria set forth by the NCAA selection guidelines.


The Final Bracket

http://nobowls.com/images/week12.png
Posted November 18, 2012 at 12:05 AM EST

Week 12: It All Comes Down to This

Rest easy, auto-bids. Everyone else? Do your best to calm those nerves before ESPNU airs the selection show at 1:30 PM EST. It's supposed to be fun, right?
Quick Notes


Wofford, Stony Brook? Eesh. It hurts to leave good teams out.

Sam's Cornhole Bags Team of the Week: Colgate
After a 1-3 start to the season, Colgate has rattled off six straight wins to take the Patriot League title and punch their postseason ticket. Raider fans, order your maroon and white cornhole bags at Sam's Cornhole Bags (http://www.samscornholebags.com/) or use their team color generator to select from any other FCS team color combination! Check it out (http://www.samscornholebags.com/)
Breaking It Down

Selecting the Field
Every week's bracket is based on an "If the season ended today" mindset. The ten automatic bids are just that: automatic. Whichever team is atop the standings of each of the ten auto-bid conferences at the end of the week receives a bid. Expectedly, teams on top of conference standings early in the season often are not in the same spot come Selection Sunday. The other ten bids, the at-large selections, are simply the teams I believe to be the best remaining in the country. Keep in mind again this is not a prediction of what I think the brackets will look like in late November, but rather a collection of deserving teams week to week.
The Pairings
All first and second round match-ups in these brackets are my best attempts at mimicking what the committee would do with the chosen 20 teams while adhering to these rules:


Seeding the top five teams and spacing them accordingly across the bracket
Avoiding first round match-ups with teams from the same conference (Note: The round of 16 is now the "second round")
Creating geographically-friendly match-ups that follow the NCAA's 400-mile limitations when possible
Giving home field advantage to schools that historically have made winning bids

"This is garbage..."

Comments? I'm itching to hear your praise/raging hatred. Sound off to erik@nobowls.com and let me know what's on your mind.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 17th, 2012, 11:07 PM
you have nova listed twice...

bostonspider
November 17th, 2012, 11:09 PM
Have Nova listed twice. Do not see SDSU listed but they are in bracket.

stevdock
November 17th, 2012, 11:09 PM
No way both SDSU and Ill St are both playing opening round games. I expect both to get byes but we shall see.

Gil Dobie
November 17th, 2012, 11:10 PM
No South Dakota State on the list, Nova twice?

MTfan4life
November 17th, 2012, 11:10 PM
In this scenario, I think Lehigh would host Wagner. They easily out attend Colgate and are much closer to Wagner.

youngterrier
November 17th, 2012, 11:14 PM
No way Lehigh gets in over Wofford. No way. I will call BS on any such prediction unless it becomes true. You can't punish Wofford for playing a single D2 game and then promote Lehigh for playing in the Patriot. It just doesn't work that way.

ITmonarch10
November 17th, 2012, 11:18 PM
No way both SDSU and Ill St are both playing opening round games. I expect both to get byes but we shall see.

ODU played in the opening round last year because Norfolk St is 5 miles down the road. That said, I think UNH and SDSU should be switched.

*Honestly, don't think UNH should be in the playoffs after they got blew out by Towson.

ITmonarch10
November 17th, 2012, 11:21 PM
No way Lehigh gets in over Wofford. No way. I will call BS on any such prediction unless it becomes true. You can't punish Wofford for playing a single D2 game and then promote Lehigh for playing in the Patriot. It just doesn't work that way.

BUBBLE BURST

Wofford (8-3)

Stony Brook (8-3)

N. Arizona (8-3)

Towson (7-4)

Hes consistent with the 2 Div 1 loss and Div 2 win thing. I also think Wofford and Stony Brook should get in over Lehigh/UNH.

youngterrier
November 17th, 2012, 11:22 PM
BUBBLE BURST

Wofford (8-3)

Stony Brook (8-3)

N. Arizona (8-3)

Towson (7-4)

Hes consistent with the 2 Div 1 loss and Div 2 win thing. I also think Wofford and Stony Brook should get in over Lehigh/UNH.doesn't mean he is right.

totoinfl
November 17th, 2012, 11:26 PM
Unfortunately the last 4 or 5 teams in is kind of like any tournament or the BCS in general...a beauty contest and campaign.

ITmonarch10
November 17th, 2012, 11:28 PM
I think his 70/72 pick ratio is going to be a little fubar this year.

World
November 18th, 2012, 12:32 AM
No way Lehigh gets in over Wofford. No way. I will call BS on any such prediction unless it becomes true. You can't punish Wofford for playing a single D2 game and then promote Lehigh for playing in the Patriot. It just doesn't work that way.

Forget the Div. II game that Wofford played

It is not punished for that game

Wofford is punished for only winning 7 Div. I games

The concept is very simple here

maybe next year

LehighU11
November 18th, 2012, 12:44 AM
Towson didn't play a D2 team...

KUlawJack
November 18th, 2012, 02:39 AM
No way both SDSU and Ill St are both playing opening round games. I expect both to get byes but we shall see.

Agreed. No way in hell we should both play opening weekend. If we have to play I hope he is right with that pick because we'll roll.

I'd also like a southland matchup because we have kicked their teeth in for quite some time now. Something like 8-1 against the southland.

Nickels
November 18th, 2012, 03:51 AM
Agreed. No way in hell we should both play opening weekend. If we have to play I hope he is right with that pick because we'll roll.

I'd also like a southland matchup because we have kicked their teeth in for quite some time now. Something like 8-1 against the southland.
Be careful what you wish for. SHSU is going to load the box, blitz non-stop while playing receivers man to man. Anything to stop the rush and short stuff. They are only allowing 68 rushing yards a game. SDSU doesn't have a good passing attack and throws a lot of interceptions. I doubt SDSU would score more than 14-17 on Sam. I also doubt SDSU's good (but not great) defense cant stop the 5th best rushing attack and 3rd most efficient passing offense in the FCS to under 28-35 points.

There are some teams in the playoffs that worry me, SDSU isn't one of them.