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FargoBison
November 13th, 2012, 02:12 PM
Lets say there are a massive amount of very deserving teams left on Sunday....Who gets in......

Autos
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: CCU
Colonial: Villanova
Mid-Eastern: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: NDSU
Northeast: Wagner
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 02:16 PM
Lets say there are a massive amount of very deserving teams left on Sunday....Who gets in......

Autos
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: CCU
Colonial: Villanova
Mid-Eastern: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: NDSU
Northeast: Wagner
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3

You might as well throw Albany in that mix at 9-2. Albany would have as much of a chance at at-large as some other schools you have list......which is 0.00000001%.

FargoBison
November 13th, 2012, 02:18 PM
You might as well throw Albany in that mix at 9-2. Albany would have as much of a chance at at-large as some other schools you have list......which is 0.00000001%.

Alright I tossed them in and even included Sac State(they do have a win over a Pac 10 team and Cal Poly). So now there is an even 20 from the at-large poll, pick 10.

Lehigh'98
November 13th, 2012, 02:21 PM
That really is a nightmare for the committee. I tried to pick 10, then realized its probably not even close

frozennorth
November 13th, 2012, 02:22 PM
At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

last in: SBU, TSU. first out, JMU, NAU

PAllen
November 13th, 2012, 02:22 PM
Lehigh, SBU, EWU, Cal Poly, ODU, then break out a dart board.

FargoBison
November 13th, 2012, 02:26 PM
No matter what the meltdowns going on at AGS would be epic under this scenario. Ursus might want to beef up the servers.

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 02:26 PM
Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

DFW HOYA
November 13th, 2012, 02:26 PM
If the Engineers defeat Lafayette, Lehigh is in and it's a first round playoff somewhere west.

Lose, and it gives the committee ample opportunity to cut the PL back to a one-bid league.

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 02:27 PM
24-team playoff would have been great this year.

WileECoyote06
November 13th, 2012, 02:30 PM
At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4[/QUOTE]

Last In: TSU, Lehigh, SDSU, Cal Poly
First Out: Richmond, Illinois State

KUlawJack
November 13th, 2012, 02:30 PM
Lets say there are a massive amount of very deserving teams left on Sunday....Who gets in......

Autos
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: CCU
Colonial: Villanova
Mid-Eastern: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: NDSU
Northeast: Wagner
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

This is really really hard to do.

dgreco
November 13th, 2012, 02:32 PM
Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 02:34 PM
I think every single one of the teams on that list of 20 could win a game or two in the playoffs.

Franks Tanks
November 13th, 2012, 02:34 PM
If the Engineers defeat Lafayette, Lehigh is in and it's a first round playoff somewhere west.

Lose, and it gives the committee ample opportunity to cut the PL back to a one-bid league.

No way Lehigh gets in with a loss to Lafayette IMO. Who is there quality win.. Liberty? Is Liberty even over .500?

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 02:36 PM
No way Lehigh gets in with a loss to Lafayette IMO. Who is there quality win.. Liberty? Is Liberty even over .500?

The thing is, even with a win over Lafayette their resume is the same. Not a knock on Lafayetee because they're a decent team this year, but Lehigh does not have any wins that we would normally call at-large quality.

bluehenbillk
November 13th, 2012, 02:37 PM
Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 02:37 PM
This site is going to blow up Sunday!

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 13th, 2012, 02:39 PM
The thing is, even with a win over Lafayette their resume is the same. Not a knock on Lafayetee because they're a decent team this year, but Lehigh does not have any wins that we would normally call at-large quality.

A road win over your rival doesn't hurt imo. The road win being the biggest boost.

Assuming Liberty beats VMI they'll finish 6-5 with a close FBS loss and a conference Co-Champ. Princeton beating Darmouth would also help. The Ivy League is given more respect by those who matter than those on here imo.

I actually think Fordham beating Colgate would help Lehigh.

At the end of the day I'm not at all worried at 10-1.

knucklehead
November 13th, 2012, 02:42 PM
No way Lehigh gets in with a loss to Lafayette IMO. Who is there quality win.. Liberty? Is Liberty even over .500?
Liberty is 5-5 and should be 6-5 after VMI game Sat. I find it interesting that several have a SBU in at 9-3 in the Big South getting in when LU has been left out 2 times in similar circumstances. The committe always a loves slew of CAA teams, and just look at the crop on that list. The bad one for LU was when they took stinkin Maine over us that one year (08 I think).

Franks Tanks
November 13th, 2012, 02:45 PM
The thing is, even with a win over Lafayette their resume is the same. Not a knock on Lafayetee because they're a decent team this year, but Lehigh does not have any wins that we would normally call at-large quality.

Agree. Lafayette's only wins of note this year would be 5 or 6 win Ivy League co-champs Penn and 2 or 3 win William & Mary. That won't get Lehigh over the hump either.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 13th, 2012, 02:46 PM
Agree. Lafayette's only wins of note this year would be 5 or 6 win Ivy League co-champs Penn and 2 or 3 win William & Mary. That won't get Lehigh over the hump either.

It's a boost because it means a 5-0 road record.

Bear84
November 13th, 2012, 02:46 PM
If you take the rankings from this week's AGS poll, and assume NAU and JMU drop a couple of spots, since this hypothetical list has them losing next week, you get this.

EWU
ODU
SHSU
GSU
UNH
Wofford
ISUr
Cal Poly
SBU
Richmond

FargoBison
November 13th, 2012, 02:48 PM
If you take this week's AGS poll, and assume NAU and JMU drop a couple of spots, since this hypothetical list has them losing next week, you get this.

EWU
ODU
SHSU
GSU
UNH
Wofford
ISUr
Cal Poly
SBU
Richmond

Actually this hypothetical has JMU beating ODU.

FCS_pwns_FBS
November 13th, 2012, 02:48 PM
1. All the people whining that the playoffs have gotten too big will be silent this Sunday.

2. I have been saying for a while now (with no one seeming to believe me) that conferences not playing a round-robin conference schedule tends to produce more teams with 8+ wins overall and at least 7+ DI wins. It's just plain combinatorics. IMO, any team that got a lucky draw with their conference schedule should get less consideration than, say, a Wofford team that has had to play every member of the conference.

Go Apps
November 13th, 2012, 02:48 PM
24-team playoff would have been great this year.

Does that 24 include more autobids? or 4 more at large - not sure?

Jacked_Rabbit
November 13th, 2012, 02:49 PM
If you take this week's AGS poll, and assume NAU and JMU drop a couple of spots, since this hypothetical list has them losing next week, you get this.

EWU
ODU
SHSU
GSU
UNH
Wofford
ISUr
Cal Poly
SBU
Richmond

But this list doesn't include SDSU, so it cannot be right... xbawlingx

FargoBison
November 13th, 2012, 02:50 PM
Does that 24 include more autobids? or 4 more at large - not sure?

It would be an auto for the Pioneer and three more at-large bids.

Go Apps
November 13th, 2012, 02:50 PM
1. All the people whining that the playoffs have gotten too big will be silent this Sunday.

2. I have been saying for a while now (with no one seeming to believe me) that conferences not playing a round-robin conference schedule tends to produce more teams with 8+ wins overall and at least 7+ DI wins. It's just plain combinatorics. IMO, any team that got a lucky draw with their conference schedule should get less consideration than, say, a Wofford team that has had to play every member of the conference.

There you go! This is right the CAA and Big Sky should not be rewarded for not playing a full schedule - and throw in the MVC and OVC yes they too are guilty

Bear84
November 13th, 2012, 02:50 PM
Actually this hypothetical has JMU beating ODU.

In that case, then JMU would bump Richmond off.

Mr. Pink
November 13th, 2012, 02:53 PM
I've said this before, and i'll say it again.... How in the world does the selection committee leave out the SOCON champion? It doesn't... Wofford gets in, no question.

Go Apps
November 13th, 2012, 02:54 PM
If this is how it ends up...then

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
[B]GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
[B]ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
[B]Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

FCS_pwns_FBS
November 13th, 2012, 02:54 PM
I've said this before, and i'll say it again.... How in the world does the selection committee leave out the SOCON champion? It doesn't... Wofford gets in, no question.

They may look at DI wins, which unless Wofford can find a way to beat USC they will only have 7.

Doesn't make much sense to me because many FCS teams have DI wins that are basically automatic wins just like Lincoln is, but whatever.

UNH Fanboi
November 13th, 2012, 02:57 PM
This site is going to blow up Sunday!

It does even in a normal year.

WileECoyote06
November 13th, 2012, 02:58 PM
1. All the people whining that the playoffs have gotten too big will be silent this Sunday.

2. I have been saying for a while now (with no one seeming to believe me) that conferences not playing a round-robin conference schedule tends to produce more teams with 8+ wins overall and at least 7+ DI wins. It's just plain combinatorics. IMO, any team that got a lucky draw with their conference schedule should get less consideration than, say, a Wofford team that has had to play every member of the conference.

Good point. .. replace SDSU with Wofford in my prediction.

xthumbsupx

FCS_pwns_FBS
November 13th, 2012, 02:59 PM
It does even in a normal year.

I don't think he is talking about traffic. He is talking about angry posters. There is a strong possibility of teams from the top 4 FCS conferences with 8 wins not geteting into the playoffs. Even teams like Sam Houston or Stony Brook with a case for being included being left out will create strong controversy. Not going to be real pretty.

KUlawJack
November 13th, 2012, 02:59 PM
They may look at DI wins, which unless Wofford can find a way to beat USC they will only have 7.

Doesn't make much sense to me because many FCS teams have DI wins that are basically automatic wins just like Lincoln is, but whatever.

I think the last two spots are between SDSU, Wofford, and Richmond. Hell, throw in Stony Brook and Tennessee State for those last spots too. Should be interesting to see how this shakes out. This assumes the results cited above obviously.

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 03:00 PM
Does that 24 include more autobids? or 4 more at large - not sure?

1 more autobid - PFL
3 more at-larges.

We probably would have seen Drake or Butler as the PFL AQ. Drake played a good game against Montana St this year so I think they could hang in the first round. Butler lost to Western Illinois so I would expect them to get killed in the first round.

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 03:02 PM
I've said this before, and i'll say it again.... How in the world does the selection committee leave out the SOCON champion? It doesn't... Wofford gets in, no question.


I think Wileycoyote did this analysis before, but its very rare for a Co-Champion from any major conference to be left out.

UNH Fanboi
November 13th, 2012, 03:06 PM
1. All the people whining that the playoffs have gotten too big will be silent this Sunday.

2. I have been saying for a while now (with no one seeming to believe me) that conferences not playing a round-robin conference schedule tends to produce more teams with 8+ wins overall and at least 7+ DI wins. It's just plain combinatorics. IMO, any team that got a lucky draw with their conference schedule should get less consideration than, say, a Wofford team that has had to play every member of the conference.

Playing 8 out of 11 teams in your conference instead of 8 out of 8 doesn't automatically make your schedule easier. This myth needs to die.

MTfan4life
November 13th, 2012, 03:08 PM
I think Wileycoyote did this analysis before, but its very rare for a Co-Champion from any major conference to be left out.

I've said this before, and i'll say it again.... How in the world does the selection committee leave out the SOCON champion? It doesn't... Wofford gets in, no question.

It's happened twice to the Big Sky the past ten postseasons. Montana State in 2005 and Idaho State in 2002. (Both teams were over the 7 win threshold as well) So, it's not a completely unheard of thing to do. The main thing to consider is there haven't been too many seasons where the bubble has been this competitive and this jam packed. Previous precedents are bound to get overlooked in this season's selection process.

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 03:08 PM
Playing 8 out of 11 teams in your conference instead of 8 out of 8 doesn't automatically make your schedule easier. This myth needs to die.

It doesn't automatically, but there is certainly the potential for one team's conference schedule to not be as tough as the conference as a whole. If a team misses two of the top teams in the conference because of a lucky schedule draw, should they really get the full benefit of the conference strength?

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 03:09 PM
It's happened twice to the Big Sky the past ten postseasons. Montana State in 2005 and Idaho State in 2002. (Both teams were over the 7 win threshold as well) So, it's not a completely unheard of thing to do. The main thing to consider is there haven't been too many seasons where the bubble has been this competitive and this jam packed. Previous precedents are bound to get overlooked in this season's selection process.

That is the truth.

FCS_pwns_FBS
November 13th, 2012, 03:11 PM
Playing 8 out of 11 teams in your conference instead of 8 out of 8 doesn't automatically make your schedule easier. This myth needs to die.

I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that if you only play, say, 3 out of the top 5 opponents in your conference, that team should get less consideration than someone who had to play all of the teams in their conference unless the former's conference is a lot better, and I consider the top 4 conferences to be close enough together that this applies.

App1928
November 13th, 2012, 03:13 PM
I'm sorry, but it would be a SHAME if Lehigh made the playoffs...I'm sorry but that team would get rocked by any team other than Bethune-Cookman in the field. If you are in a crappy league your job is simple...win the league. If you lose to Liberty, then tough. I mean their are 4-5 CAA, 2-3 Big Sky, and 2-3 SoCon teams who WILL BE LEFT OUT of the playoffs who would take Lehigh to the shed. Resume is terrible. I hope they don't get in because it would sad that great football teams miss the playoffs because they dont play lehigh's schedule. Give 90% of SoCon, Southland, Caa, MVC, OVC, and Big Sky teams lehigh's schedule...they will most likely go undefeated with maybe 1 single digit win...

Go Apps
November 13th, 2012, 03:17 PM
Playing 8 out of 11 teams in your conference instead of 8 out of 8 doesn't automatically make your schedule easier. This myth needs to die.

It also shouldn't mean everybody gets a trophy either - enough with Pop Warner Ball - how about you play JMU, Villanova, and replace those others in the first couple of weeks - if you want a huge conference then play the games - I would have favored you in both of these games and you would have eliminated 2 teams from contention - my point exactlt

We did not say an 9 team conference makes it easier what we are saying is we determine a champion on the field and that yeilds more answers on a yearly basis

WileECoyote06
November 13th, 2012, 03:18 PM
That is the truth.

No argument from me there. There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Professor Chaos
November 13th, 2012, 03:18 PM
1) EWU 9-2
2) ODU 9-2
3) Cal Poly 9-2
4) GSU 8-3
5) SHSU 8-3
6) UNH 8-3
7) SDSU 8-3
8) Illinois State 8-3
9) Richmond 8-3
10) Wofford 8-3
----------------------
11) Indiana State 8-3
12) JMU 8-3
13) Towson 7-4
14) Tenn State 9-2
15) SBU 9-2
16) NAU 8-3
17) Lehigh 10-1
18) EKU 8-3
19) Albany 9-2
20) Sac State 7-4

Professor Chaos
November 13th, 2012, 03:23 PM
I've said this before, and i'll say it again.... How in the world does the selection committee leave out the SOCON champion? It doesn't... Wofford gets in, no question.


I think Wileycoyote did this analysis before, but its very rare for a Co-Champion from any major conference to be left out.
That makes no sense to me. Basically, you're rewarding Wofford because App St beat GSU. It would be just like saying Indiana St should get in if Illinois St beats NDSU because they'd be co-MVFC champs along with Illinois St, NDSU, and SDSU.

Nickels
November 13th, 2012, 03:26 PM
I'm sorry, but it would be a SHAME if Lehigh made the playoffs...I'm sorry but that team would get rocked by any team other than Bethune-Cookman in the field. If you are in a crappy league your job is simple...win the league. If you lose to Liberty, then tough. I mean their are 4-5 CAA, 2-3 Big Sky, and 2-3 SoCon teams who WILL BE LEFT OUT of the playoffs who would take Lehigh to the shed. Resume is terrible. I hope they don't get in because it would sad that great football teams miss the playoffs because they dont play lehigh's schedule. Give 90% of SoCon, Southland, Caa, MVC, OVC, and Big Sky teams lehigh's schedule...they will most likely go undefeated with maybe 1 single digit win...

xbowxxhurrayx

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 13th, 2012, 03:29 PM
I'm sorry, but it would be a SHAME if Lehigh made the playoffs...I'm sorry but that team would get rocked by any team other than Bethune-Cookman in the field. If you are in a crappy league your job is simple...win the league. If you lose to Liberty, then tough. I mean their are 4-5 CAA, 2-3 Big Sky, and 2-3 SoCon teams who WILL BE LEFT OUT of the playoffs who would take Lehigh to the shed. Resume is terrible. I hope they don't get in because it would sad that great football teams miss the playoffs because they dont play lehigh's schedule. Give 90% of SoCon, Southland, Caa, MVC, OVC, and Big Sky teams lehigh's schedule...they will most likely go undefeated with maybe 1 single digit win...

*yawn* been reading the same junk for close to 15 years. I know most on here don't the PL in the playoffs at all. Deal with it, they derserve a shot.

VUCats02
November 13th, 2012, 03:30 PM
I'm sorry, but for all of those people that are picking UNH and leaving out Richmond, which are most of you, what is your rationale for doing so? That just can't be right...

wapiti
November 13th, 2012, 03:31 PM
Lehigh should not be on the list of potential at-large teams.
Their strength of schedule is too weak. And throw on top of that their struggles to win against these weak opponents.
Not saying they should have run up the score, but by the start of the 4th quarter the games should have been in hand.

If this years Lehigh team had to play this year's Sac State team, Sac would crush them.


Lets say there are a massive amount of very deserving teams left on Sunday....Who gets in......

Autos
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: CCU
Colonial: Villanova
Mid-Eastern: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: NDSU
Northeast: Wagner
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

Professor Chaos
November 13th, 2012, 03:32 PM
*yawn* been reading the same junk for close to 15 years. I know most on here don't the PL in the playoffs at all. Deal with it, they derserve a shot.
They had one. They lost to Colgate. The strength, or lack thereof, of the Patriot League as a conference in relation to the strength of other bubble teams around the country didn't give Lehigh the luxury of having margin for error in conference games.

cpacmel
November 13th, 2012, 03:32 PM
At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4



What is the basis for Indiana State over Illinois State?

Illinois State won in Terre Haute.

Illinois State has an FBS win.

One of Indiana State's win is over Quincy. In the eyes of the committe the best they can be is 7-3.

I just don't see any way the Sycamores get in before the Redbirds.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 13th, 2012, 03:32 PM
Lehigh should not be on the list of potential at-large teams.
Their strength of schedule is too weak. And throw on top of that their struggles to win against these weak opponents.
Not saying they should have run up the score, but by the start of the 4th quarter the games should have been in hand.

If this years Lehigh team had to play this year's Sac State team, Sac would crush them.

Watched a lot of Big Sky football this year. Lehigh would have competed well.

Jacked_Rabbit
November 13th, 2012, 03:32 PM
Since 2007, no teams ranked in the Top 10 of the GPI have been left out of the playoff field. The team left out in 2007 was NDSU, who were ineligible for the playoffs. You can say GPI doesn't matter all you want, but the number don't lie. That is good news for the teams in this group:

1. N Dakota St (9) (1.00)
2. Montana St (2.29)
3. Sam Houston St (3.14)
4. E Washington (5.00)
5. Ga Southern (7.00)
6. Illinois St (8.29)
7. Indiana St (10.14)
8. Cent Arkansas (10.57)
9. S Dakota St (11.43)
10. Cal Poly (11.86)

asucrutch23
November 13th, 2012, 03:33 PM
I'm sorry, but for all of those people that are picking UNH and leaving out Richmond, which are most of you, what is your rationale for doing so? That just can't be right...

I have both in, but why would Richmond be chosen before UNH? UNH won the head-to-head and their only losses are an FBS and at ODU by 3. Richmond lost the head-to-head and also lost to an FBS and ODU.

WileECoyote06
November 13th, 2012, 03:35 PM
That makes no sense to me. Basically, you're rewarding Wofford because App St beat GSU. It would be just like saying Indiana St should get in if Illinois St beats NDSU because they'd be co-MVFC champs along with Illinois St, NDSU, and SDSU.

No you'd be rewarding Wofford, because they beat App State in Boone.

VUCats02
November 13th, 2012, 03:39 PM
I have both in, but why would Richmond be chosen before UNH? UNH won the head-to-head and their only losses are an FBS and at ODU by 3. Richmond lost the head-to-head and also lost to an FBS and ODU.

Once again - putting WAY too much value in head to head. Richmond had a tougher schedule than UNH. UNH got to play W&M, URI, and Georgia State. I'm not sure if non CAA football people realize severity of the unbalanced CAA schedule this year.

Professor Chaos
November 13th, 2012, 03:41 PM
No you'd be rewarding Wofford, because they beat App State in Boone.
That's part of Wofford's resume, a quality road win. Co-champs of the SOCON is another. But that alone doesn't get them in this year with only 7 D1 wins. Is their 6-2 record in conference any more impressive than Indiana St's 6-2 conference record? They'd be right on the bubble for me in the scenario the OP laid out. I could see them getting left out in favor of a team like Towson, Tennessee St, Indiana St, or JMU.

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 03:46 PM
Since 2007, no teams ranked in the Top 10 of the GPI have been left out of the playoff field. The team left out in 2007 was NDSU, who were ineligible for the playoffs. You can say GPI doesn't matter all you want, but the number don't lie. That is good news for the teams in this group:

1. N Dakota St (9) (1.00)
2. Montana St (2.29)
3. Sam Houston St (3.14)
4. E Washington (5.00)
5. Ga Southern (7.00)
6. Illinois St (8.29)
7. Indiana St (10.14)
8. Cent Arkansas (10.57)
9. S Dakota St (11.43)
10. Cal Poly (11.86)

Anyone on this board could have told you those teams would make it. The GPI had nothing to do with their selection.

asucrutch23
November 13th, 2012, 03:50 PM
Once again - putting WAY too much value in head to head. Richmond had a tougher schedule than UNH. UNH got to play W&M, URI, and Georgia State. I'm not sure if non CAA football people realize severity of the unbalanced CAA schedule this year.

Richmond got to play W&M, URI, and Georgia State too. Richmond's SOS is 51 according to Massey and UNH's is 52. It's not like Richmond had a great OOC schedule either. Aside from UVA, the played Gardner-Webb and VMI. Not much better than UNH's Holy Cross and CCSU. Richmond had a chance to prove they were better than UNH and lost.

ysubigred
November 13th, 2012, 03:53 PM
What is the basis for Indiana State over Illinois State?

Illinois State won in Terre Haute.

Illinois State has an FBS win.

One of Indiana State's win is over Quincy. In the eyes of the committe the best they can be is 7-3.

I just don't see any way the Sycamores get in before the Redbirds.

"IF" YSU beats Indy ST this weekend then what?? Both left out or does this give the MVFC another team in???

WileECoyote06
November 13th, 2012, 03:54 PM
What is the basis for Indiana State over Illinois State?

Illinois State won in Terre Haute.

Illinois State has an FBS win.

One of Indiana State's win is over Quincy. In the eyes of the committe the best they can be is 7-3.

I just don't see any way the Sycamores get in before the Redbirds.

I believe that the committee places more emphasis on who you beat than who you lost to unless it is a bad loss. Using the GPI as a reference tool, and comparing the two:
Illinois State
GPI: 6
Massey: 7
DI wins: 8*
Good wins: @EMU, @Indiana State (7), EIU (16)
Good losses: SIU (17), NDSU (1)*
Losses outside of Top 25: Missouri State (33)

Indiana State
GPI: 7
Massey: 4
Division I Wins: 7*
Good wins: NDSU (1), SIU (17), YSU (21)*
Good losses: SDSU (9), Ill State(6)
Losses outside of Top 25: None

*predicted

If Illinois State doesn't defeat NDSU, is their resume as impressive as ISU's? That's up for debate.

tourguide
November 13th, 2012, 03:54 PM
A lot of love for Poly especially since the thread starter penciled them in to win this weekend. They are paying at NAU! And i consider it a first round playoff game.....winner advances loser goes home

VUCats02
November 13th, 2012, 03:55 PM
Richmond got to play W&M, URI, and Georgia State too. Richmond's SOS is 51 according to Massey and UNH's is 52. It's not like Richmond had a great OOC schedule either. Aside from UVA, the played Gardner-Webb and VMI. Not much better than UNH's Holy Cross and CCSU. Richmond had a chance to prove they were better than UNH and lost.

Ah you're right. For some reason I thought Richmond played Towson instead of Ga St. Yes, I understand the UNH over Richmond now.

asucrutch23
November 13th, 2012, 03:58 PM
Ah you're right. For some reason I thought Richmond played Towson instead of Ga St. Yes, I understand the UNH over Richmond now.

I understand you being high on Richmond though since they beat you (I am too), but not over UNH. For the record, I hope App doesn't have to play VU, Richmond, or UNH in the round of 16, but I think we are on a collision course with one of the 3. xsmhx

SpeedkingATL
November 13th, 2012, 04:01 PM
If Samford beats a really bad SEC team this weekend (Kentucky) then they get thrown into the mix too. Wofford could solve it's issue by beating South Carolina but that is highly unlikely. This year more than ever shows that it's better to schedule a lousy FCS team than any Division II.

Jacked_Rabbit
November 13th, 2012, 04:17 PM
Anyone on this board could have told you those teams would make it. The GPI had nothing to do with their selection.

Really?! You think Indiana State is a lock if they beat YSU this weekend? And a few prognosticators have SDSU on the outside looking in. Cal Poly would obviously fall out of the Top 10 with at loss at NAU, so that'd be a moot point.

Guess I was focusing on both Indiana St. & SDSU, who both seem to be on the bubble.

Go Apps
November 13th, 2012, 04:18 PM
If Samford beats a really bad SEC team this weekend (Kentucky) then they get thrown into the mix too. Wofford could solve it's issue by beating South Carolina but that is highly unlikely. This year more than ever shows that it's better to schedule a lousy FCS team than any Division II.

You are right and a Samford win could be costly for Wofford as Samford holds the head to head matchup and beating any SEC team gets you in

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 04:22 PM
Really?! You think Indiana State is a lock if they beat YSU this weekend? And a few prognosticators have SDSU on the outside looking in. Cal Poly would obviously fall out of the Top 10 with at loss at NAU, so that'd be a moot point.

Guess I was focusing on both Indiana St. & SDSU, who both seem to be on the bubble.


No sorry - I meant the years past. The Top 10 teams from years past.

This year is completely up in the air.

Go Apps
November 13th, 2012, 04:23 PM
Why would you put in Stoney Brook - for the record 42 FCS schools are ranked ahead of Army in the Sargins - how is this a quality win - can't believe they are still ranked in the top 25 Crazy - 2 teams from the big south is just not right

BisonBacker
November 13th, 2012, 04:24 PM
24-team playoff would have been great this year.

Personally I'm not a fan of the expanded playoffs. Too watered down. This year I think is an exception in that a number of deserving teams will get left out. But 20 is enough for a playoff round but thats a different subject. I wouldn't want to have tom make some of those decisions. Going to be tough for sure and no matter what or who they pick someone somewhere will be pissed off.

VUCats02
November 13th, 2012, 04:27 PM
I understand you being high on Richmond though since they beat you (I am too), but not over UNH. For the record, I hope App doesn't have to play VU, Richmond, or UNH in the round of 16, but I think we are on a collision course with one of the 3. xsmhx

I can imagine after App's experience in the playoffs against the CAA the last 2 years :P

I don't think UNH, Nova, or Richmond are as good as Nova 2 years ago and Maine last year though...

Go Apps
November 13th, 2012, 04:29 PM
I can imagine after App's experience in the playoffs against the CAA the last 2 years :P

I don't think UNH, Nova, or Richmond are as good as Nova 2 years ago and Maine last year though...

Yes but then again neither are we

cpacmel
November 13th, 2012, 04:31 PM
I believe that the committee places more emphasis on who you beat than who you lost to unless it is a bad loss. Using the GPI as a reference tool, and comparing the two:
Illinois State
GPI: 6
Massey: 7
DI wins: 8*
Good wins: @EMU, @Indiana State (7), EIU (16)
Good losses: SIU (17), NDSU (1)*
Losses outside of Top 25: Missouri State (33)

Indiana State
GPI: 7
Massey: 4
Division I Wins: 7*
Good wins: NDSU (1), SIU (17), YSU (21)*
Good losses: SDSU (9), Ill State(6)
Losses outside of Top 25: None

*predicted

If Illinois State doesn't defeat NDSU, is their resume as impressive as ISU's? That's up for debate.

isnt Illinois State's Massey @ 5 and Indiana State's @ 9

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

Also how come you give Indiana State credit for a potential win over YSU, but not Illinois State? Illinois State already beat YSU.

I don't think the Committee is going to overlook 2 big things when comparing these 2:

8 Division I wins vs 7 (committee favors teams with all DI schedules)

Head to head (game @ Terre Haute too)

I really like Indiana State too. But if they don't get in, it's because they scheduled Quincy over an FCS.

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 04:31 PM
Personally I'm not a fan of the expanded playoffs. Too watered down. This year I think is an exception in that a number of deserving teams will get left out. But 20 is enough for a playoff round but thats a different subject. I wouldn't want to have tom make some of those decisions. Going to be tough for sure and no matter what or who they pick someone somewhere will be pissed off.

I'm not sure how you can look at the potential field of at-larges this year and say the field would be watered down by adding 3 of the teams that end up on the outside.

There are 20 teams listed above and each of them could win a playoff game or two.

cpacmel
November 13th, 2012, 04:37 PM
"IF" YSU beats Indy ST this weekend then what?? Both left out or does this give the MVFC another team in???

I don't see YSU getting in @ 7-4

And if it's Indiana State @ 7-3....I just don't know. Probably depends on what happens with a few other games.

But what do I know. xsalutex

Jacked_Rabbit
November 13th, 2012, 04:42 PM
I don't see YSU getting in @ 7-4

And if it's Indiana State @ 7-3....I just don't know. Probably depends on what happens with a few other games.

But what do I know. xsalutex

I hope I'm wrong, but I think both get left out... That said, I think it helps SDSU's chances of getting in, as I think 3 ends up being the number for the MVFC.

Twentysix
November 13th, 2012, 04:45 PM
At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

Last In: TSU, Lehigh, SDSU, Cal Poly
First Out: Richmond, Illinois State

No way ISU-r (8 DI wins 1 FBS win tied for 2nd in the MVFC) is left out for ISU-b (7DI wins, road win against the #1 seed, tied for 2nd in the MVFC).

NDSU_grad
November 13th, 2012, 04:45 PM
I'm sorry, but it would be a SHAME if Lehigh made the playoffs...I'm sorry but that team would get rocked by any team other than Bethune-Cookman in the field. If you are in a crappy league your job is simple...win the league. If you lose to Liberty, then tough. I mean their are 4-5 CAA, 2-3 Big Sky, and 2-3 SoCon teams who WILL BE LEFT OUT of the playoffs who would take Lehigh to the shed. Resume is terrible. I hope they don't get in because it would sad that great football teams miss the playoffs because they dont play lehigh's schedule. Give 90% of SoCon, Southland, Caa, MVC, OVC, and Big Sky teams lehigh's schedule...they will most likely go undefeated with maybe 1 single digit win...

South Dakota 31
Colgate 21
It will be interesting to see the weight the committee puts on that score. That is USD's only win of the season and it came against the PL champs.

wow
November 13th, 2012, 04:50 PM
Lets say there are a massive amount of very deserving teams left on Sunday....Who gets in......

At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

Can someone please post this list with DI only W-L. I bet that would clear up the picture a bit...

App1928
November 13th, 2012, 04:57 PM
*yawn* been reading the same junk for close to 15 years. I know most on here don't the PL in the playoffs at all. Deal with it, they derserve a shot.


nope. didnt say dont want the PL in the playoffs...dont want 2 PL's in the playoffs. lehigh is crap dude.

URMite
November 13th, 2012, 04:57 PM
Anyone on this board could have told you those teams would make it. The GPI had nothing to do with their selection.

Not to mention the GPI formula was completely changed this year. Even if it was a predictor before...now???

danefan
November 13th, 2012, 04:57 PM
Can someone please post this list with DI only W-L. I bet that would clear up the picture a bit...

Good point

App1928
November 13th, 2012, 04:58 PM
Watched a lot of Big Sky football this year. Lehigh would have competed well.


you are smoking crack....lehigh WOULD NOT win more than maybe 1 game in the Big Sky, and im leaning more toward 0....dillusional and blind lehigh fan here

GSUhooligan
November 13th, 2012, 04:59 PM
Lets say there are a massive amount of very deserving teams left on Sunday....Who gets in......

Autos
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: CCU
Colonial: Villanova
Mid-Eastern: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: NDSU
Northeast: Wagner
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4
.

URMite
November 13th, 2012, 05:00 PM
I understand you being high on Richmond though since they beat you (I am too), but not over UNH. For the record, I hope App doesn't have to play VU, Richmond, or UNH in the round of 16, but I think we are on a collision course with one of the 3. xsmhx

Both of you are missing one thing in this Hypothetical. We loss to UNH and they loss to Towson. That would be the difference. Just Villanova lost to us and we lost to ODU. Could be a close call, but I don't like our chances.

ngineer
November 13th, 2012, 05:03 PM
If you take the rankings from this week's AGS poll, and assume NAU and JMU drop a couple of spots, since this hypothetical list has them losing next week, you get this.

EWU
ODU
SHSU
GSU
UNH
Wofford
ISUr
Cal Poly
SBU
Richmond

The problem with your example is that it's based on the AGS rankings. While I think our rankings are the best, I don't think "The Committee"uses them, but either the Coaches poll or TSN poll seems to be given more credence for whatever reason.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 13th, 2012, 05:03 PM
you are smoking crack....lehigh WOULD NOT win more than maybe 1 game in the Big Sky, and im leaning more toward 0....dillusional and blind lehigh fan here

You are simply blind by ignorance. Lehigh could beat Idaho State, Montana, Portland State, North Dakota, Weber State, Sac State, UC Davis and Northern Colorado. They'd have a legit shot against NAU and Cal Poly. SUU is the wildcard, especially in Cedar City.

I can't believe you would say something so stupid. The worst teams in the Big Sky might be worse than the bottom feeders in the PL. Idaho State is horrendous.

URMite
November 13th, 2012, 05:04 PM
At-Large Pool....

Took at Div II, *=assumed loss, number=GPI

42 Lehigh 10-1
23 SBU 8-2
04 EWU 9-2
10 Cal Poly 9-2
12*NAU 7-3
07 Indiana State 7-3
09 SDSU 8-3
06 Illinois State 8-3
14 Wofford 7-3
05 GSU 8-3
27 JMU 8-3
11 ODU 9-2
18*UNH 8-3
24 Richmond 8-3
20 Towson 7-4
03 SHSU 7-3
28 Tenn State 9-2
15 EKU 8-3
43 Albany 9-2
31 Sac State 7-4

Is that right?

MplsBison
November 13th, 2012, 05:04 PM
Lets say there are a massive amount of very deserving teams left on Sunday....Who gets in......

Autos
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: CCU
Colonial: Villanova
Mid-Eastern: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: NDSU
Northeast: Wagner
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

Sorry, NEC and Big South only get the autos. I don't care if Albany and Stony Brook beat Alabama.

Those are garbage conferences and they don't deserve more than the auto. Too bad.

Jacked_Rabbit
November 13th, 2012, 05:06 PM
You are simply blind by ignorance. Lehigh could beat Idaho State, Montana, Portland State, North Dakota Weber State, Sac State, UC Davis and Northern Colorado.

I can't believe you would say something so stupid. The worst teams in the Big Sky might be worst than anyone in the PL. Idaho State is horrendous.

I agree... Lehigh could win some games in the Big Sky, as the bottom tier is far worse (and larger) than that of the MVFC. USD, Missouri State, & Western Illinois would probably be the only beatable teams in the MVFC this year, and we all saw how Colgate did against our biggest bottom feeder. Sorry for beating an already dead horse.

BisonBacker
November 13th, 2012, 05:06 PM
I'm not sure how you can look at the potential field of at-larges this year and say the field would be watered down by adding 3 of the teams that end up on the outside.

There are 20 teams listed above and each of them could win a playoff game or two.
I thought I made it clear that this year is an anomaly in that regard.

ngineer
November 13th, 2012, 05:07 PM
South Dakota 31
Colgate 21
It will be interesting to see the weight the committee puts on that score. That is USD's only win of the season and it came against the PL champs.

Not all that much weight. A very early season loss on a long road trip is not as bad as late in the season. Teams are expected to improve, change personnel, etc. The question the committee looks at is how good the teams are NOW, not two months ago.

knucklehead
November 13th, 2012, 05:08 PM
Why would you put in Stoney Brook - for the record 42 FCS schools are ranked ahead of Army in the Sargins - how is this a quality win - can't believe they are still ranked in the top 25 Crazy - 2 teams from the big south is just not right

And there you go. The same power conference bias on display in this post is in the track record of the committee. They did it to LU and they will do it to SBU. Like it or hate it you have to live with it. Only 1 big south team will get in even though 2 may deserve a bid.

LEHIGH61
November 13th, 2012, 05:08 PM
nope. didnt say dont want the PL in the playoffs...dont want 2 PL's in the playoffs. lehigh is crap dude. You lost to The Citadel

LEHIGH61
November 13th, 2012, 05:10 PM
You are simply blind by ignorance. Lehigh could beat Idaho State, Montana, Portland State, North Dakota, Weber State, Sac State, UC Davis and Northern Colorado. They'd have a legit shot against NAU and Cal Poly. SUU is the wildcard, especially in Cedar City.

I can't believe you would say something so stupid. The worst teams in the Big Sky might be worse than the bottom feeders in the PL. Idaho State is horrendous.My sentiments exactly!

knucklehead
November 13th, 2012, 05:11 PM
You are simply blind by ignorance. Lehigh could beat Idaho State, Montana, Portland State, North Dakota, Weber State, Sac State, UC Davis and Northern Colorado. They'd have a legit shot against NAU and Cal Poly. SUU is the wildcard, especially in Cedar City.

I can't believe you would say something so stupid. The worst teams in the Big Sky might be worse than the bottom feeders in the PL. Idaho State is horrendous.

Liberty played both Montana and Lehigh this year, and I would be hard pressed to pick a winner between the 2. Would be a tight game.

Jacked_Rabbit
November 13th, 2012, 05:11 PM
At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 8-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 7-3
Indiana State 7-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 7-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 7-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4
Is that right?

So it looks like this assumes NAU is going to lose to Cal Poly...? Is there a list that assumes all of these bubble teams will win their remaining games? Sorry if I'm wrong/confused.

ngineer
November 13th, 2012, 05:12 PM
I'm disappointed the some on the board cannot exchange differing opinions without trying to degrade other schools or conferences with comments like "garbage conferences", teams are "crap", and similar erudite phrases. A reflection of the low self-esteem as one cannot build themselves up without tearing someone else down.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 13th, 2012, 05:12 PM
Liberty played both Montana and Lehigh this year, and I would be hard pressed to pick a winner between the 2. Would be a tight game.

I was at the Montana game in Missoula. You guys hung in there but the turnovers and punt return doomed you.

knucklehead
November 13th, 2012, 05:16 PM
I was at the Montana game in Missoula. You guys hung in there but the turnovers and punt return doomed you.

Agree. Same with the Lehigh game. Shot ourselves in the foot in atleast 3 or 4 games we could have won. Young team, news coaches scheme, tons of injuries, it'll turn around soon.

URMite
November 13th, 2012, 05:17 PM
So it looks like this assumes NAU is going to lose to Cal Poly...? Is there a list that assumes all of these bubble teams will win their remaining games? Sorry if I'm wrong/confused.

I edited the post to * the losses. The OP assumed the outcome to create the largest number of possible candidates.

URMite
November 13th, 2012, 05:18 PM
At-Large Pool....

Took at Div II, *=assumed loss, number=GPI

42 Lehigh 10-1
23 SBU 8-2
04 EWU 9-2
10 Cal Poly 9-2
12*NAU 7-3
07 Indiana State 7-3
09 SDSU 8-3
06 Illinois State 8-3
14 Wofford 7-3
05 GSU 8-3
27 JMU 8-3
11 ODU 9-2
18*UNH 8-3
24 Richmond 8-3
20 Towson 7-4
03 SHSU 7-3
28 Tenn State 9-2
15 EKU 8-3
43 Albany 9-2
31 Sac State 7-4

Is that right?

Quoting myself because fast moving thread.

EKUSteve
November 13th, 2012, 05:24 PM
This keeps showing Tenn St at 9 - 2, but they have a game against UT-Martin this week. If Martin wins, then both Martin and Tenn St are 8 - 3. Not sure if that will impact your predictions. UTM does have a win over Memphis.

Skyhawk71
November 13th, 2012, 05:52 PM
If UTM beats TSU= EKU 8-3; UTM 8-3; TSU 8-3= EKU has the upper hand in the event the OVC gets a second team- beat UTM head to head; EKU is strong in the polls; would be even with UTM with 2 FCS losses/1FBS loss; UTM has 1 FBS win- throw it out head to head- If TSU beats UTM then I would say they have the upper hand at 9-2 beat EKU head to head..........Does the OVC get two teams, who knows, the Hawks blew their shot on Saturday in Cookeville

wapiti
November 13th, 2012, 06:09 PM
You are simply blind by ignorance. Lehigh could beat Idaho State, Montana, Portland State, North Dakota, Weber State, Sac State, UC Davis and Northern Colorado. They'd have a legit shot against NAU and Cal Poly. SUU is the wildcard, especially in Cedar City.

I can't believe you would say something so stupid. The worst teams in the Big Sky might be worse than the bottom feeders in the PL. Idaho State is horrendous.

Ok I'll bite.

Lehigh would beat Idaho State, might compete well against Weber, Northern Colorado, Portland State, UC-Davis, North Dakota, Southern Utah, and Montana, but would be odds against winning and would be crushed by the rest of the Big Sky. That would put Lehigh somewhere between the bottom and middle of the Big Sky this year.

I do want a Pioneer team in the playoffs, but not two.
I also want a Patriot team in the playoffs, but not two.
I also would like to see the Ivy league send one team to the playoffs.
and the only way they can get in is with an AQ.

PhillyApp1
November 13th, 2012, 06:48 PM
But we have changed coaches and the players are fighting to win....bring on the CAA or anyone else.....Beat who ever is in your way...GO APP.......to much APP juice??

GreatAppSt
November 13th, 2012, 06:52 PM
I think this could be the year that two PL's get in. If Lehigh wins this week at 10 wins and only one loss they may have done enough to punch thier ticket even without the PL autobid.xnodx

Walkon79
November 13th, 2012, 07:46 PM
You are simply blind by ignorance. Lehigh could beat Idaho State, Montana, Portland State, North Dakota, Weber State, Sac State, UC Davis and Northern Colorado. They'd have a legit shot against NAU and Cal Poly. SUU is the wildcard, especially in Cedar City.

I can't believe you would say something so stupid. The worst teams in the Big Sky might be worse than the bottom feeders in the PL. Idaho State is horrendous.

Winless was a little strong, but there's not much difference between the top of the conference and the next 6. ISU, WSU, PSU, UNC and perhaps UCD might be winnable. The rest would be more of a struggle.

MTfan4life
November 13th, 2012, 09:22 PM
Since 2007, no teams ranked in the Top 10 of the GPI have been left out of the playoff field. The team left out in 2007 was NDSU, who were ineligible for the playoffs. You can say GPI doesn't matter all you want, but the number don't lie. That is good news for the teams in this group:

1. N Dakota St (9) (1.00)
2. Montana St (2.29)
3. Sam Houston St (3.14)
4. E Washington (5.00)
5. Ga Southern (7.00)
6. Illinois St (8.29)
7. Indiana St (10.14)
8. Cent Arkansas (10.57)
9. S Dakota St (11.43)
10. Cal Poly (11.86)

However, since 2007, the bubble has been NOWHERE near what it is this season. Going back to 2007, it's tough to find just the first four 7 or more win teams left out of each season of the playoffs. However, this season that left out list could be as high as 10. Therefore, I've said it before; previous precedents are bound to go out the window this season with the immensely loaded bubble of potential at-large teams.

Jacked_Rabbit
November 13th, 2012, 09:27 PM
However, since 2007, the bubble has been NOWHERE near what it is this season. Going back to 2007, it's tough to find just the first four 7 or more win teams left out of each season of the playoffs. However, this season that left out list could be as high as 10. Therefore, I've said it before; previous precedents are bound to go out the window this season with the immensely loaded bubble of potential at-large teams.

Meh, whatever. I thought I was making a solid point. I don't even know why I try anymore, if nobody appreciates all of my hard work... xcoolx

*sarcasm above"

whoanellie
November 13th, 2012, 09:48 PM
Ah the poetry of the FCS there are fruit flakes and nut's in every box of granola.



I'm disappointed the some on the board cannot exchange differing opinions without trying to degrade other schools or conferences with comments like "garbage conferences", teams are "crap", and similar erudite phrases. A reflection of the low self-esteem as one cannot build themselves up without tearing someone else down.

CHIP72
November 13th, 2012, 10:36 PM
FargoBison - you forgot Villanova.

kalm
November 13th, 2012, 10:41 PM
Ok I'll bite.

Lehigh would beat Idaho State, might compete well against Weber, Northern Colorado, Portland State, UC-Davis, North Dakota, Southern Utah, and Montana, but would be odds against winning and would be crushed by the rest of the Big Sky. That would put Lehigh somewhere between the bottom and middle of the Big Sky this year.

I do want a Pioneer team in the playoffs, but not two.
I also want a Patriot team in the playoffs, but not two.
I also would like to see the Ivy league send one team to the playoffs.
and the only way they can get in is with an AQ.

This.

COULD being the operative word in GLTO's post. Sacramento State COULD beat Utah, UW, Cal, WSU, and DID beat Colorado. Lehigh COULD beat Sacramento State...a 4-5th best team in BSC who won't get an at-large. 3-7 UC Davis lost 12-6 to SDSU...while Colgate lost to 1-win USD...the evidence goes on and on.

Fully fund scholarships, beaf up your OOC schedule.

FargoBison
November 13th, 2012, 10:42 PM
FargoBison - you forgot Villanova.

Technically they are the autobid in this scenario, but now I'm not sure if that is right.

VUCats02
November 13th, 2012, 11:33 PM
Technically they are the autobid in this scenario, but now I'm not sure if that is right.

UNH has the best probability of receiving the Auto bid, and Nova has the second best probability of receiving it, assuming games game go according to paper.

World
November 13th, 2012, 11:58 PM
I'm sorry, but it would be a SHAME if Lehigh made the playoffs...I'm sorry but that team would get rocked by any team other than Bethune-Cookman in the field. If you are in a crappy league your job is simple...win the league. If you lose to Liberty, then tough. I mean their are 4-5 CAA, 2-3 Big Sky, and 2-3 SoCon teams who WILL BE LEFT OUT of the playoffs who would take Lehigh to the shed. Resume is terrible. I hope they don't get in because it would sad that great football teams miss the playoffs because they dont play lehigh's schedule. Give 90% of SoCon, Southland, Caa, MVC, OVC, and Big Sky teams lehigh's schedule...they will most likely go undefeated with maybe 1 single digit win...

How has Lehigh done in the last two years in the playoffs?

World
November 14th, 2012, 12:07 AM
you are smoking crack....lehigh WOULD NOT win more than maybe 1 game in the Big Sky, and im leaning more toward 0....dillusional and blind lehigh fan here

wrong yet again

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year

FargoBison
November 14th, 2012, 12:10 AM
wrong yet again

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year

That is a quite a statement.....for a team that wouldn't even be .500 in the MVFC.

World
November 14th, 2012, 12:14 AM
That is a quite a statement.....for a team that wouldn't even be .500 in the MVFC.

How has Lehigh done against MVFC Champ teams in the last 2 years?

FargoBison
November 14th, 2012, 12:18 AM
How has Lehigh done against MVFC Champ teams in the last 2 years?

Last time I checked this isn't 2010 anymore. Middle of the pack teams in our league are beating the likes of Pitt, what are the middle of the pack PL teams doing? Losing to Robert Morris....

skinny_uncle
November 14th, 2012, 01:07 AM
As of today:
Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

You have to look at SOS as well as won-loss record.

dudeitsaid
November 14th, 2012, 01:18 AM
Lets say there are a massive amount of very deserving teams left on Sunday....Who gets in......

Autos
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: CCU
Colonial: Villanova
Mid-Eastern: Bethune-Cookman
Missouri Valley: NDSU
Northeast: Wagner
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois
Patriot: Colgate
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Central Arkansas

At-Large Pool....

Lehigh 10-1
SBU 9-2
EWU 9-2
Cal Poly 9-2
NAU 8-3
Indiana State 8-3
SDSU 8-3
Illinois State 8-3
Wofford 8-3
GSU 8-3
JMU 8-3
ODU 9-2
UNH 8-3
Richmond 8-3
Towson 7-4
SHSU 8-3
Tenn State 9-2
EKU 8-3
Albany 9-2
Sac State 7-4

Someone asked for this list with D1 wins only. I tried to put that together with D1 wins to date. Also, here is another question when looking at this list. What happens with these potential at larges if they lose Saturday (for those that have a game, which is most). I know that some of these teams will win, and some of them will win their conference autobid, and some of them will beat a team on this list bringing about that loss. But it seems that a loss this week will eliminate several of these teams. Question is, who can lose next week, and still make the field with a large degree of certainty? Obviously, several of the teams would not even reach 7 D1 wins if they lose on Saturday, so pretty much all of those teams would be out. Also, obviously, the mix of winning vs losing will put some of those teams that look like a lock with all of those teams losing in a precarious situation concerning making the playoffs at all. I would probably say that with absolute certainty, no matter what happens, NDSU, ODU, and MSU get in. I would say the next 6 are MSU, EWU, Illinois St, GSU, App, SHSU, and I'm really torn on whether Cal Poly or SBU is the last team in.

NDSU (9 D1 wins, 1 being FBS Colorado St)
Lehigh (9 D1 wins)
ODU (9 D1 wins)
SBU (8 D1 wins, 1 being FBS Army)
EWU (8 D1 wins, 1 being FBS Idaho)
Cal Poly (8 D1 wins, 1 being FBS Wyoming)
Illinois St (8 D1 wins, 1 being FBS E Michigan)
GSU (8 D1 wins)
UNH (8 D1 wins)
Tenn St (8 D1 wins)
EKU (8 D1 wins)
Albany (8 D1 wins)
App St (8 D1 wins)
Montana St (8 D1 wins)
NAU (7 D1 wins, 1 being FBS UNLV)
SDSU (7 D1 wins)
Wofford (7 D1 wins)
JMU (7 D1 wins
Richmond (7 D1 wins)
SHSU (7 D1 wins)
Villanova (7 D1 wins)
Wagner (7 D1 wins)
Sac St (6 D1 wins)
Indiana St (6 D1 wins)
Towson (6 D1 wins)
CCU (6 D1 wins)

UNIFanSince1983
November 14th, 2012, 01:23 AM
Last time I checked this isn't 2010 anymore. Middle of the pack teams in our league are beating the likes of Pitt, what are the middle of the pack PL teams doing? Losing to Robert Morris....

And let's not forgot the team that just beat Lehigh lost to the worst team in the MVFC. Colgate will won the Patriot and couldn't beat a team that did not win a game in the MVFC. They can put up a good fight for 1 game, but week in week out Lehigh would not be able to handle the grind of a major FCS conference.

344Johnson
November 14th, 2012, 01:33 AM
And let's not forgot the team that just beat Lehigh lost to the worst team in the MVFC. Colgate will won the Patriot and couldn't beat a team that did not win a game in the MVFC. They can put up a good fight for 1 game, but week in week out Lehigh would not be able to handle the grind of a major FCS conference.

At least not with their scholarship restrictions.

MSUBobcat
November 14th, 2012, 01:34 AM
wrong yet again

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year

The drugs must be really good where you live. xrotatehx UM beat Liberty by 20. Lehigh beat them by 2. There is not an 18pt home field advantage differential especially when 2 teams have already won in Wa-Griz this year. On top of that UM beat USD who then went on to beat the PL champs (who isn't Lehigh). The Griz very likely could finish 8th in the BSC this year.

I'll give you ISU, BBQ, and PSU. UC-Davis has played playoff caliber teams tough, but didn't have enough to win and UNC is a late FG from beating 8-2 NAU and being 4-3 in conference, so they'd give Lehigh a game. The Griz whooped a team you barely beat and SUU beat the Griz in Missoula, so they'd likely beat Lehigh. MSU, NAU, CP, EWU and Sac State would be clear favorites. I'd say Lehigh would finish 4-4 at best in the BSC and that's if the schedule didn't include the top 5 teams. Playing all 13, I'd say 4-9. Hell, Lehigh beat 1-9 Holy Cross by 1 point! xrolleyesx

World
November 14th, 2012, 01:42 AM
The drugs must be really good where you live. xrotatehx UM beat Liberty by 20. Lehigh beat them by 2. There is not an 18pt home field advantage differential especially when 2 teams have already won in Wa-Griz this year. On top of that UM beat USD who then went on to beat the PL champs (who isn't Lehigh). The Griz very likely could finish 8th in the BSC this year.

I'll give you ISU, BBQ, and PSU. UC-Davis has played playoff caliber teams tough, but didn't have enough to win and UNC is a late FG from beating 8-2 NAU and being 4-3 in conference, so they'd give Lehigh a game. The Griz whooped a team you barely beat and SUU beat the Griz in Missoula, so they'd likely beat Lehigh. MSU, NAU, CP, EWU and Sac State would be clear favorites. I'd say Lehigh would finish 4-4 at best in the BSC and that's if the schedule didn't include the top 5 teams. Playing all 13, I'd say 4-9. Hell, Lehigh beat 1-9 Holy Cross by 1 point! xrolleyesx

thanks

Excellent analysis

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year

344Johnson
November 14th, 2012, 01:43 AM
thanks

Excellent analysis

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year


The sky is green too isn't it?

Professor Chaos
November 14th, 2012, 01:52 AM
thanks

Excellent analysis

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year
And about 3rd in the NFC East I'm guessing?

MSUBobcat
November 14th, 2012, 02:05 AM
thanks

Excellent analysis

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year

17218

Excellent response analysis but I'll bite. Lehigh would finish 2nd or 3rd based on what, may I ask? Is it the 10pt win over 4-5 Monmouth? The 21pt win over 2-9 CCSU? 3pt win over 5-4 Princeton? 2pt win over Liberty, who were dominated by the 8th place Griz? 3pt thrashing of 6-4 Fordham, the same margin of defeat to BUCKNELL lol? 21pt dominance over 3-6 Columbia? 3pt win over 5-5 Georgetown? 23pt win over 2-9 Bucknell? 1pt squeaker over 1-9 HC? Or is it perhaps the 11 pt loss to the team that lost by 11 to the BSC's 8th place team?

WrenFGun
November 14th, 2012, 07:05 AM
I'm sorry, but for all of those people that are picking UNH and leaving out Richmond, which are most of you, what is your rationale for doing so? That just can't be right...

H2H?

kalm
November 14th, 2012, 07:40 AM
17218

Excellent response analysis but I'll bite. Lehigh would finish 2nd or 3rd based on what, may I ask? Is it the 10pt win over 4-5 Monmouth? The 21pt win over 2-9 CCSU? 3pt win over 5-4 Princeton? 2pt win over Liberty, who were dominated by the 8th place Griz? 3pt thrashing of 6-4 Fordham, the same margin of defeat to BUCKNELL lol? 21pt dominance over 3-6 Columbia? 3pt win over 5-5 Georgetown? 23pt win over 2-9 Bucknell? 1pt squeaker over 1-9 HC? Or is it perhaps the 11 pt loss to the team that lost by 11 to the BSC's 8th place team?

But, but, but... they beat UNI and Towson in the playoffs. xlolx

wow
November 14th, 2012, 08:15 AM
Honest question and not meant to be a dig on their team: Why is SHSU such a lock with 7 DI wins? Are they going to be conference champs?

Wallace
November 14th, 2012, 08:55 AM
Not to mention the GPI formula was completely changed this year. Even if it was a predictor before...now???

How was the GPI formula completely changed this year?

gotts
November 14th, 2012, 09:06 AM
thanks

Excellent analysis

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year

Is TheFan back?

danefan
November 14th, 2012, 09:09 AM
How was the GPI formula completely changed this year?

You stopped using the AGS poll didn't you Ralph? Or was that last year after GAS saved this place from extinction?

PAllen
November 14th, 2012, 09:55 AM
Last time I checked this isn't 2010 anymore. Middle of the pack teams in our league are beating the likes of Pitt, what are the middle of the pack PL teams doing? Losing to Robert Morris....

Last time I checked, we weren't talking about the middle of the pack PL either. Don't you guys have a BCS championship game to prep for?

lknspider
November 14th, 2012, 10:35 AM
H2H?

Richmond win @ W&M = playoffs before Villanova or JMU.......even if......JMU and VU win..... UR has wins over VU @ VU and win over JMU.

Walkon79
November 14th, 2012, 10:43 AM
wrong yet again

Lehigh would place around 2nd-3rd in the Big Sky this year

Would lose big to:

EWU
MSU
CP
NAU
SAC

Pick-ems

SUU
UND
UM
UCD

Likely Wins:

PSU
UNC
WSU
ISU

That puts you middle of the road in the Big Sky.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 14th, 2012, 10:52 AM
Would lose big to:

EWU
MSU
CP
NAU
SAC

Pick-ems

SUU
UND
UM
UCD

Likely Wins:

PSU
UNC
WSU
ISU

That puts you middle of the road in the Big Sky.

Disagree.
Cal Poly, NAU and even EWU have played a lot of close games. The Eagles seem to win by a TD no matter who they play. The only team in the Big Sky to really blow teams out is MSU and they've only kicked into gear the last few weeks.

VUCats02
November 14th, 2012, 10:58 AM
Richmond win @ W&M = playoffs before Villanova or JMU.......even if......JMU and VU win..... UR has wins over VU @ VU and win over JMU.

However, Nova has higher quality wins than Richmond does. Nova gets in before Richmond despite the head to head loss. Richmond also played Ga St, URI, and W&M giving them a much easier SOS than Nova. And Nova has a significantly higher chance to win the auto bid than Richmond does, which ends this debate entirely.

kalm
November 14th, 2012, 10:58 AM
Disagree.
Cal Poly, NAU and even EWU have played a lot of close games. The Eagles seem to win by a TD no matter who they play. The only team in the Big Sky to really blow teams out is MSU and they've only kicked into gear the last few weeks.

Well we did beat UND 55-17 and Cal Poly 34-17. But you're right we've played many close games...against FBS and BSC opponents. You have played many close against...

Walkon79
November 14th, 2012, 11:01 AM
Disagree.
Cal Poly, NAU and even EWU have played a lot of close games. The Eagles seem to win by a TD no matter who they play. The only team in the Big Sky to really blow teams out is MSU and they've only kicked into gear the last few weeks.

That's the meatgrinder that is BSC football, just like the SoCon, CAA or MVFC. The only real gimmes this year were WSU and ISU in my mind. We caught UND and PSU on REALLY bad days for them, and UNC has been coming on strong as of late.

I'm not sold on the playoff caliber of CP and NAU since we haven't seen them and they've slid lately. My feeling is that EWU, MSU and SAC are the class of the Big Sky this year, and Sac will likely get left out.

Engineer86
November 14th, 2012, 11:10 AM
NAU is the one I am not sold on, but I have to agree that while Lehigh could compete on any given day, the season long grind would drop them off the top teams. I hope with scholarships they do schedule up more, but as I have said many times, local CAA teams make it difficult, but if we can go to Liberty, we can got to Ohio.

URMite
November 14th, 2012, 11:14 AM
How was the GPI formula completely changed this year?

It was said that 2011 was (ARC/5 + SNW + FCP) /3 and 2012 (ARC + SNW + FCP) /7.

I no longer think that. The only change was the year before 2010 (ARC + AGS + SNW + FCP) /8

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?95533-2011-Gridiron-Power-Index-(GPI)-Debuts-Georgia-Southern-is-No-1&p=1691080#post1691080

Check posts #24 to 29 the bolded formula was used the 1st week of 2011 GPI but was revised. So only a 14% increase in computer weight in 2011, no change in 2012.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 14th, 2012, 11:17 AM
NAU is the one I am not sold on, but I have to agree that while Lehigh could compete on any given day, the season long grind would drop them off the top teams. I hope with scholarships they do schedule up more, but as I have said many times, local CAA teams make it difficult, but if we can go to Liberty, we can got to Ohio.

The biggest issue with the Big Sky is travel. Only the PFL travel compares to the amount of miles these kids travel in FCS. Lehigh would compete well because of their defense and team speed. The lack of depth could ultimately cost them depending on what type of schedule they were given. Since there's so many teams in the BSC it could really differ.

I liked last years schedule for Lehigh. UNH, Liberty, Monmouth, Princeton and Yale make for a perfect slate. Lehigh needs to focus on getting the better Ivies in addition to Princeton. Harvard, Penn, Brown and Yale are usually pretty good. Make sure you get 6 home games by playing two full scholarship teams, an NEC team and two IL games. The NEC games are good because you may very easily see those schools in the playoffs.

Engineer86
November 14th, 2012, 11:26 AM
The biggest issue with the Big Sky is travel. Only the PFL travel compares to the amount of miles these kids travel in FCS. Lehigh would compete well because of their defense and team speed. The lack of depth could ultimately cost them depending on what type of schedule they were given. Since there's so many teams in the BSC it could really differ.

I liked last years schedule for Lehigh. UNH, Liberty, Monmouth, Princeton and Yale make for a perfect slate. Lehigh needs to focus on getting the better Ivies in addition to Princeton. Harvard, Penn, Brown and Yale are usually pretty good. Make sure you get 6 homes games by playing two full scholarship teams, an NEC team and two IL games. The NEC games are good because you may very easily see those schools in the playoffs.

Needs to be top NEC teams, I agree with top Ivy's, but we need at least one CAA or equivalent, I prefer two IF they will do home and home.

T-Dog
November 14th, 2012, 12:34 PM
Guess who the FCS playoff chair is this year?

http://66.147.242.171/~appstat1/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/charliecobb3.jpg?w=300

Jacked_Rabbit
November 14th, 2012, 12:46 PM
Guess who the FCS playoff chair is this year?

Guess who can't even be in the room when App. State's position or potential seed is being discussed...?

T-Dog
November 14th, 2012, 12:56 PM
Guess who can't even be in the room when App. State's position or potential seed is being discussed...?

Guess who holds the fate of everyone else in their hands?

Bribes are not only encouraged, but they're preferred. xangelx

If anyone gets us a C-USA invitation, we'll give you a bye to Frisco. xrulesx

FargoBison
November 14th, 2012, 11:12 PM
Anyone on this board could have told you those teams would make it. The GPI had nothing to do with their selection.

danefan the media is also starting to get it...which is good because I've had to listen to people up here babble about the GPI all year.


NCAA official says FCS GPI used on "very limited basis," only to evaluate champ of Pioneer League if it is good enough to make field.



Even at that, NCAA says the GPI is just one of three factors used to evaluate if Pioneer champ is qualified to make the FCS playoffs.


I'll have more on GPI FCS business in my Friday column in The Forum, but the reality is the power poll getting more credit than it should.

https://twitter.com/FGOSPORTSWRITER/status/268796357853208577

MR. CHICKEN
November 14th, 2012, 11:29 PM
Guess who can't even be in the room when App. State's position or potential seed is being discussed...?


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Griz_are_Beta_AF
November 14th, 2012, 11:58 PM
you are smoking crack....lehigh WOULD NOT win more than maybe 1 game in the Big Sky, and im leaning more toward 0....dillusional and blind lehigh fan here

They could've competed with Weber State AND Idaho State! But no Lehigh couldn't compete in the Big Sky.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 15th, 2012, 12:03 AM
They could've competed with Weber State AND Idaho State! But no Lehigh couldn't compete in the Big Sky.

Lehigh could compete with far more BSC teams than that. Just another dumb comment from someone who probably couldn't find Lehigh on a map.

Griz_are_Beta_AF
November 15th, 2012, 12:22 AM
Lehigh could compete with far more BSC teams than that. Just another dumb comment from someone who probably couldn't find Lehigh on a map.

Why do I have to find them on the map to know what kind of team they are? But yes, they could probably beat 4 or 5 teams in the BSC. And another 4 could be potential wins. But that's 4 or 5 definite losses. MSU, EWU, NAU, CP, and CSUS. I think SUU would beat them and probably UND, and UM. That's 8 losses and 5 wins. And competing doesn't mean much, we could compete with some BCS teams but that doesn't mean anything. Competing and beating are two completely different things.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 15th, 2012, 12:27 AM
Why do I have to find them on the map to know what kind of team they are? But yes, they could probably beat 4 or 5 teams in the BSC. And another 4 could be potential wins. But that's 4 or 5 definite losses. MSU, EWU, NAU, CP, and CSUS. I think SUU would beat them and probably UND, and UM. That's 8 losses and 5 wins. And competing doesn't mean much, we could compete with some BCS teams but that doesn't mean anything. Competing and beating are two completely different things.


I watched enough BSC football this year to know that Lehigh could compete and win games in the BSC. Montana State is the only team right now that I think would be problem. Four weeks ago I was singing a different tune but the return of Kirk has made a huge difference. Your coach is pretty familar with the PL from his time coaching at Juniata (PA) and from his frienship with Lafayette head coach Frank Tavani. He's amazed how good these teams are with their current aid structure and is fully aware how good they could potentially be with them.

MSUBobcat
November 15th, 2012, 01:38 AM
I watched enough BSC football this year to know that Lehigh could compete and win games in the BSC. Montana State is the only team right now that I think would be problem. Four weeks ago I was singing a different tune but the return of Kirk has made a huge difference. Your coach is pretty familar with the PL from his time coaching at Juniata (PA) and from his frienship with Lafayette head coach Frank Tavani. He's amazed how good these teams are with their current aid structure and is fully aware how good they could potentially be with them.

You must not have watched those games very closely. 8th place Griz beat USD, USD beats Colgate, Colgate beats you. "But teams get better as the year goes on", you say. Then why didn't Lehigh get better. Last 2 games - lost to the toothpaste, eked out a 1 pt win over 1-9 Holy Cross team. It's been a season of narrow escapes against weak competition. You have yet to bet a team w/ a .500 or better record by more than 3 points. Even a homer has to admit more than 1 team out of 13 "would be a problem". C'mon man!!
xhomerxxdizzyx

MacThor
November 15th, 2012, 06:18 AM
However, Nova has higher quality wins than Richmond does. Nova gets in before Richmond despite the head to head loss. Richmond also played Ga St, URI, and W&M giving them a much easier SOS than Nova. And Nova has a significantly higher chance to win the auto bid than Richmond does, which ends this debate entirely.

VU played Ga St and URI too, so I don't think UR had a "Much Easier" SOS. VU also got to play Maine instead of UNH. If Nova doesn't get the autobid, you can be sure the committee will look at 6-2/8-3 UR 28 @ 6-2/8-3 VU 17.

VUCats02
November 15th, 2012, 09:49 AM
VU played Ga St and URI too, so I don't think UR had a "Much Easier" SOS. VU also got to play Maine instead of UNH. If Nova doesn't get the autobid, you can be sure the committee will look at 6-2/8-3 UR 28 @ 6-2/8-3 VU 17.

You can also be sure that they will look at Old Dominion's only loss of the year - which was a blowout.

URMite
November 15th, 2012, 09:57 AM
VU played Ga St and URI too, so I don't think UR had a "Much Easier" SOS. VU also got to play Maine instead of UNH. If Nova doesn't get the autobid, you can be sure the committee will look at 6-2/8-3 UR 28 @ 6-2/8-3 VU 17.
I'm not convinced what the committee will do but interesting differences:
Maine vs W&M
Towson vs UNH
Penn/Fordham vs VMI/Gardner Webb

And UR vs ODU

URMite
November 15th, 2012, 10:00 AM
We would have the opposite position with UNH. h2h vs SOS

Engineer86
November 15th, 2012, 10:01 AM
In my view

Maine >W&M
Towson ~= UNH
Penn/Fordham > VMI/Gardner Webb

URMite
November 15th, 2012, 10:23 AM
In my view

Maine >W&M
Towson ~= UNH
Penn/Fordham > VMI/Gardner Webb

Not as sure on W&M, four losses are to Maryland, UNH, JMU, & Towson all on the road by a combined 8 points. = tough two win team.

And the real conundrum
Beat VU lost ODU
Beat ODU lost UR

MacThor
November 15th, 2012, 10:55 AM
Not as sure on W&M, four losses are to Maryland, UNH, JMU, & Towson all on the road by a combined 8 points. = tough two win team.

And the real conundrum
Beat VU lost ODU
Beat ODU lost UR
It would help our cause if UNH beats Towson. Then depending on other games UR's two losses would be to the CAA co-champs while VU has a 5-3 Towson loss and the H2H.

UD and W&M are no gimmes of course.

VUCats02
November 15th, 2012, 11:06 AM
Regardless, it is very close. If Nova and Richmond win on Saturday, and the committee had to pick only one of the two teams, that would be a very difficult decision to make.

THE HERD
November 15th, 2012, 11:47 AM
Is TheFan back?

Exactly what I was thinking.

Mr. C
November 15th, 2012, 11:56 AM
You stopped using the AGS poll didn't you Ralph? Or was that last year after GAS saved this place from extinction?

AGS was removed by Ralph Wallace from the GPI in 2011 over the objections of two senior staff members (me being one of them). His argument was that we couldn't trust the people doing the AGS poll anymore and that we couldn't verify its results. People need to know that the GPI has been tinkered with from year to year and hasn't been a constant, just like the BCS has tinkered with its ratings over the years.

Wallace
November 15th, 2012, 11:53 PM
AGS was removed by Ralph Wallace from the GPI in 2011 over the objections of two senior staff members (me being one of them). His argument was that we couldn't trust the people doing the AGS poll anymore and that we couldn't verify its results. People need to know that the GPI has been tinkered with from year to year and hasn't been a constant, just like the BCS has tinkered with its ratings over the years.

Mr. C is David Coulson, Appalachian State beatwriter and relieved of duty at many places. Here is maybe a reason, his facts are wrong.

Wallace
November 16th, 2012, 12:05 AM
You stopped using the AGS poll didn't you Ralph? Or was that last year after GAS saved this place from extinction?

Me? Your answer to both questions is no and you are way off base as you usually are when you are ranting with your blind hatred.

Wallace
November 16th, 2012, 12:12 AM
I'll have more on GPI FCS business in my Friday column in The Forum, but the reality is the power poll getting more credit than it should.
Be sure to check this out too from your conference commissioner:
http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/log/index.php/2012/11/08/too-much-tv-audio-podcast?blog=2

The GPI is not the selector of at-large bids to the NCAA D-I Football Championships. It is a main subjective indicator that has been remarkably accurate since it began in the 1990s and the NCAA used it officially for the bridge AQ. The championship committee makes the decisions. I know for a fact that they all get the GPI and consider it, whatever that's worth.

FargoBison
November 16th, 2012, 01:29 AM
Contrary to some FCS public opinion, the Gridiron Power Index poll is not a primary factor.

“We use it in a very limited fashion,” said Damani Leech, director of championships and alliances for the NCAA.

Specifically, the only time the GPI is used is if a team from the non-scholarship Pioneer League is on the cusp of making the field. For a Pioneer team to make it, a team must have eight Division I wins, with two coming against a team from a league that has an automatic qualifier, and it finishes the season ranked 20th or higher in an average of three top 25 polls: the coaches’, Sports Network media and the GPI.

“So (the GPI) is used to evaluate one team, and it’s one of the components of it,” Leech said.

A Pioneer team has never made the playoffs. It’s doubtful a team has even been close.

This is not meant to demean the GPI. It’s a rather accurate rating and considering a main FCS selection factor is strength of schedule, it’s a pretty good predictor on who will get in. The litmus test will be Indiana State, which if it beats Youngstown State on Saturday, will have seven D-I victories but a high GPI.

Leech said the FCS playoff committee does its own rankings via conference calls during the season, and when the group huddles this weekend in Indianapolis, they will have that chart in front of them. Wins versus Football Bowl Subdivision teams are very much a factor, he said.



http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/380571/group/Sports/

Wallace
November 16th, 2012, 01:58 AM
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/content.php?863-NCAA-Using-CSN-s-GPI

ITmonarch10
November 16th, 2012, 02:42 AM
Be sure to check this out too from your conference commissioner:
http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/log/index.php/2012/11/08/too-much-tv-audio-podcast?blog=2

The GPI is not the selector of at-large bids to the NCAA D-I Football Championships. It is a main subjective indicator that has been remarkably accurate since it began in the 1990s and the NCAA used it officially for the bridge AQ. The championship committee makes the decisions. I know for a fact that they all get the GPI and consider it, whatever that's worth.

This makes me think that Stony Brook, YSU (If they beat Indiana st), Cal Poly (Lost to NAU), Tenn-Martin (beat tenn st), and NAU(lose to Cal poly) are still very much alive for playoff selection despite any computer/poll rankings.

Wallace
November 16th, 2012, 02:57 AM
http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/380571/group/Sports/

Funny that Jeff Kolpack reports the NCAA and GPI stuff like it was previously unknown. He is pushing his company's predictions (http://www.bisonmedia.areavoices.com)! They really know their FCS having predicted for two years (probably bolstered by GPI/opinion polls/computers). hahaha

Mr. C
November 16th, 2012, 03:43 AM
Lehigh could compete with far more BSC teams than that. Just another dumb comment from someone who probably couldn't find Lehigh on a map.

Or probably gain admission to Lehigh, either, judging by his goofy comments.

Mr. C
November 16th, 2012, 03:44 AM
Mr. C is David Coulson, Appalachian State beatwriter and relieved of duty at many places. Here is maybe a reason, his facts are wrong.

So if the facts are wrong, prove it. Put your MONEY where your mouth is.

danefan
November 16th, 2012, 07:38 AM
http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/380571/group/Sports/

Bang!

Exactly what I've been saying for YEARS!

danefan
November 16th, 2012, 07:40 AM
This makes me think that Stony Brook, YSU (If they beat Indiana st), Cal Poly (Lost to NAU), Tenn-Martin (beat tenn st), and NAU(lose to Cal poly) are still very much alive for playoff selection despite any computer/poll rankings.

The GPI is less accurate than the AGS poll.
Even more so now that Ralph has stopped including the AGS poll in the GPI.

PantherRob82
November 16th, 2012, 10:11 AM
Mr. C is David Coulson, Appalachian State beatwriter and relieved of duty at many places. Here is maybe a reason, his facts are wrong.

Why aren't you in politics? You insinuate he is wrong, but don't provide any evidence.

Wallace
November 16th, 2012, 10:13 AM
... cheap shots ...

I finished feeding trolls today mr. negative reputation giver. Goodbye disgruntled person and good luck. xcoffeex

PantherRob82
November 16th, 2012, 10:14 AM
So if the facts are wrong, prove it. Put your MONEY where your mouth is.

He has money?xconfusedx

Wallace
November 16th, 2012, 10:26 AM
Why aren't you in politics? You insinuate he is wrong, but don't provide any evidence.

I don't make decisions on the GPI including or excluding anything. Plain and simple. Everything is public knowledge. The GPI is what it is and there are never claims of it to be anything else. It's laughable that anyone could think otherwise but you can't cure stupid. The GPI has been dependable for longer than any other indicator, including the AGS poll which I helped create and publicize. That's it.

danefan
November 16th, 2012, 10:28 AM
I don't make decisions on the GPI including or excluding anything. Plain and simple. Everything is public knowledge. The GPI is what it is and there are never claims of it to be anything else. It's laughable that anyone could think otherwise but you can't cure stupid. The GPI has been dependable for longer than any other indicator, including the AGS poll which I helped create and publicize. That's it.

You seriously sit there and claim that you did not decide to remove the AGS poll from the GPI?

Wallace
November 16th, 2012, 10:30 AM
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?240-A-Note-On-Computer-Ratings

Mr. C
November 16th, 2012, 11:08 AM
I finished feeding trolls today mr. negative reputation giver. Goodbye disgruntled person and good luck. xcoffeex

So I'm a troll because I asked you to prove that the facts involving the use of AGS in the GPI are wrong?

PantherRob82
November 16th, 2012, 02:26 PM
I remember when Ralph was a real person. Now he seems like Mr. Anderson from the Matrix. xlolx

Engineer86
November 16th, 2012, 04:23 PM
Not as sure on W&M, four losses are to Maryland, UNH, JMU, & Towson all on the road by a combined 8 points. = tough two win team.

And the real conundrum
Beat VU lost ODU
Beat ODU lost UR

And Lafayette loss? xlolx

URMite
November 16th, 2012, 06:05 PM
And Lafayette loss? xlolx

I thought we were comparing them to Maine?

Interesting that I'm pumping up W&M before tomorrow, while you are saying they can't be good if they lost to Lafayette...before tomorrow.

Engineer86
November 16th, 2012, 07:14 PM
I thought we were comparing them to Maine?

Interesting that I'm pumping up W&M before tomorrow, while you are saying they can't be good if they lost to Lafayette...before tomorrow.

The loss to Lafayette hurts W&M'S in a comparison with Maine. Maine's worst loss was to a ranked Albany, and Maine beat Delaware, who badly beat W&M, and finally Maine beat W&M. Maybe I am missing the point of what you are trying to do, cause there is no comparison. .... Oh wait no, Lafayette is really good and doesn't need to really show up tomorrow. Losing there is just really tough scheduling by W&M. I already started tailgating xrotatehx

Franks Tanks
November 16th, 2012, 11:35 PM
The loss to Lafayette hurts W&M'S in a comparison with Maine. Maine's worst loss was to a ranked Albany, and Maine beat Delaware, who badly beat W&M, and finally Maine beat W&M. Maybe I am missing the point of what you are trying to do, cause there is no comparison. .... Oh wait no, Lafayette is really good and doesn't need to really show up tomorrow. Losing there is just really tough scheduling by W&M. I already started tailgating xrotatehx

William & Mary is still a better win than Lehigh had all year.

MSUBobcat
November 17th, 2012, 12:36 AM
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?240-A-Note-On-Computer-Ratings

I don't have a dog in this race, but I really hate it when someone references their own BLOG as some sort of evidentiary source. If you back up your own opinion with a website of your own opinion, you may as well be quoting wikipedia.

Go Lehigh TU owl
November 17th, 2012, 01:45 AM
William & Mary is still a better win than Lehigh had all year.

Umm....no

Engineer86
November 17th, 2012, 04:43 AM
William & Mary is still a better win than Lehigh had all year.

I know, you guys are a lock against this crappy LU team

Wallace
November 17th, 2012, 05:48 AM
I don't have a dog in this race, but I really hate it when someone references their own BLOG as some sort of evidentiary source.

Sorry you "hate it" but when ornery people do not take the time to see that you already answered their question it helps them from being seen as obviously lazy by pointing out where you answered it.

danefan
November 17th, 2012, 06:48 AM
William & Mary is still a better win than Lehigh had all year.

+1

Engineer86
November 17th, 2012, 06:55 AM
William & Mary is still a better win than Lehigh had all year.

And all of lafayette's losses are worse than any Lehigh loss. Your point?