Nov. 1 Playoff Projections -College Sporting News

[CSN-info]

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=984&cid=18

Nov. 1 Playoff Projections
by Kent Schmidt
CSN West
College Sporting News

With just three weeks to play, the playoff field is starting to take some shape, although there are many possibilities left. Here are the projections based on the Gridiron Power Index (GPI).

Read More... (http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?236-Nov.-1-Playoff-Projections)

[WrenFGun]

Couldn't I have just read the GPI to get this information?

[CSN-info]

No. The GPI does not project matchups. That is Kent Schmidt.

[NHwildEcat]

I doubt the field ends up looking anything like that. If we wanted to scrap the selection comittee then we may as well move into the world of FBS and their bowl games.

[dystopiamembrane]

I love that there's always someone challenging CSN.

[ysubigred]

MVFC with 5 in? By the time the season ends we'll be lucky to get 3. Last year was a great example of no love for the MVFC.

[Sammy94]

UCA will win the Southland. Sam Houston will be the at-large from the Southland

[Hammerhead]

Have 5 teams from one conference made it to the playoffs in a single season? It doesn't seem likely since there were only 8 at-large bids until 2010.

[gotts]

Didn't EIU play SIU earlier this year?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Don't think Central Ark. will get an at-large over a 7-4 App. State.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

I'm surprised not to see JMU in the top 25 of GPI

[ysubigred]

Don't think Central Ark. will get an at-large over a 7-4 App. State.

Plus +1 ^^

[ysubigred]

Didn't EIU play SIU earlier this year?

8/30/2012 Eastern Illinois 49, Southern Illinois 28

[ysubigred]

Have 5 teams from one conference made it to the playoffs in a single season? It doesn't seem likely since there were only 8 at-large bids until 2010.

The CAA.

[BEAR]

Plus +1 ^^

xrolleyesx AGAIN ....UCA will get the autobid this saturday....SAM will get the at-large.

UCA would have 8 division I wins if they beat EIU but even that is moot. UCA gets the autobid. SAM will get the at-large over most teams.

I don't see how CSN can't get that easy fact right. Geez.

[ysubigred]

xrolleyesx AGAIN ....UCA will get the autobid this saturday....SAM will get the at-large.

UCA would have 8 division I wins if they beat EIU but even that is moot. UCA gets the autobid. SAM will get the at-large over most teams.

I don't see how CSN can't get that easy fact right. Geez.

^^ This there is no argument for xsalutex

[WrenFGun]

Don't think Central Ark. will get an at-large over a 7-4 App. State.

That's absurd. UCA would have more wins and the BEST win between the two of them..and perhaps the second best, too (McNeese State). Appalachian would have losses to Citadel, Ga. Southern, Wofford and East Carolina. I don't think wins over Samford and Chattanooga would match beating SHSU and McNeese ... point is moot though given UCA would have the autobid.

[Houndawg]

8/30/2012 Eastern Illinois 49, Southern Illinois 28

Also: SIU 17, ISU 0

Either SIU or SDSU will be out after Saturday.

SIU has the 4th toughest SOS in FCS and SDSU is 8th.

[chattownmocs]

That's absurd. UCA would have more wins and the BEST win between the two of them..and perhaps the second best, too (McNeese State). Appalachian would have losses to Citadel, Ga. Southern, Wofford and East Carolina. I don't think wins over Samford and Chattanooga would match beating SHSU and McNeese ... point is moot though given UCA would have the autobid.

Chattanooga is better than Mcneese state.

[PAllen]

Chattanooga is better than everyone except NDSU...

Oh, and all those teams they tend to lose to.

[bluehenbillk]

Don't think Central Ark. will get an at-large over a 7-4 App. State.

Won't matter if UCA wins this week, and they're decent favorites over NWST, then they get the Southland autobid. An 7-4 App State would sit behind a 8-3 SHSU team no questions asked.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I'm surprised not to see JMU in the top 25 of GPI

Win or lose, the Dukes will rise in GPI over the next three weeks. Still, playing the weaker CAA schedule this year really hurt/helped depending on how selections are made. JMU would be a relatively "weak" 9-2 or 8-3. At 7-4, no way JMU makes the field as there will be too many other teams with that record and better resumes.

That said, in 2004 we limped in, gutted out three tough wins on the road all the way to Chattanooga and a NC. Sadly, this ain't 2004! xsmhx

[BisonBacker]

MVFC with 5 in? By the time the season ends we'll be lucky to get 3. Last year was a great example of no love for the MVFC.

I was just going to say basically the same thing. As much as I'd love to see us get 5 in that isn't happening.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Win or lose, the Dukes will rise in GPI over the next three weeks.

And there's your problem with the GPI right there.

[asujch]

Seems like everyone believes that App will lose this weekend against GSU. While I don't expect us to go down there and blow them out, I also don't believe that we will get blown out either, its going to be a hard fought game. I think that because the playoffs would be up in the air with another loss ASU is going to step up and pull out a huge W on the road.

[CSN-info]

The projections are based on the GPI right now, as games are played it will change.


And there's your problem with the GPI right there.

Some teams have a problem because the NCAA uses strength of schedule (http://www.championshipsubdivisionnews.com/log/index.php/2012/10/31/fcs-strength-of-schedule?blog=2) like the GPI does for at-large teams so that sparkling records are revealed in the light of their opponents:

83. Bethune-Cookman Mid-Eastern AC
84. Yale Ivy League
85. Columbia Ivy League
86. Wagner Northeast
87. Lehigh Patriot League
88. Lafayette Patriot League
89. Delaware St Mid-Eastern AC
90. Dartmouth Ivy League
91. San Diego Pioneer

When your opponents win, your SoS improves whether you beat them or not. Obviously more if you beat them. :) So usually you have to win your conference if your SoS is very bad.

[kdinva]

IF both Stony Brook and New Hampshire win out, no way either or both play the first weekend.........

[WileECoyote06]

If Stony Brook and Albany are in the opening round; they will be matched with each other. Albany to UNH is 233 miles; while Albany to Stony Brook is 202 miles.

Also as I said before, since the playoffs expanded, no ten win team has been relegated to the opening round. I really don't see that changing either, as the FCS committee seems to value teams being successful against their schedule even with a questionable SOS; ie if Lehigh is undefeated they're going to be a seed.

*shrug*

[URMite]

Don't think Central Ark. will get the Southland AQ over a 7-4 App. State.

FIFY

[Engineer86]

Won't matter if UCA wins this week, and they're decent favorites over NWST, then they get the Southland autobid. An 7-4 App State would sit behind a 8-3 SHSU team no questions asked.

Yea, I think I agree ... Since that would mean that SHSU beats Texas AM xthumbsupx

Edit: my bad. xbangx. Can I blame it on the lack of power

[McNeese72]

Yea, I tank I agree ... Since that would mean that SHSU beats Texas AM xthumbsupx

Sigh! Sam Houston is 6-2 now. If they win out, and that would mean beating A&M, they would be 9-2. The 8-3 that was stated was presuming a loss to A&M.


Doc

[Engineer86]

Sigh! Sam Houston is 6-2 now. If they win out, and that would beating A&M, they would be 9-2. The 8-3 that was stated was presuming a loss to A&M.


Doc

Yea, I figured that out after I posted. My bad

[danefan]

If Stony Brook and Albany are in the opening round; they will be matched with each other. Albany to UNH is 233 miles; while Albany to Stony Brook is 202 miles.

Also as I said before, since the playoffs expanded, no ten win team has been relegated to the opening round. I really don't see that changing either, as the FCS committee seems to value teams being successful against their schedule even with a questionable SOS; ie if Lehigh is undefeated they're going to be a seed.

*shrug*

We'll see. I don't expect Albany to get a bye with 10 wins. No signature wins and YSU's collapse hurting tremedously.

SBU should absolutely get a bye at 10-1 with an FBS win and only a BCS loss.

Lehigh might get a seed but it won't be based on this year's resume. Their recent playoff success will help though.

[eaglesrback]

Chattanooga is better than Mcneese state.

Until last week, Chattanooga was better than Georgia Southern.

[walliver]

Wofford at Cal-Poly seems like something the NCAA would do.

[Kill'em]

Chattanooga is better than everyone except NDSU...

Oh, and all those teams they tend to lose to.
This isn't that Chattanooga from years past. This is a really good football team and I believe they will continue to improve. We were very fortunate to win there.

[Wallace]

if Lehigh is undefeated they're going to be a seed.

SoS#87 Lehigh with a seed? Don't think so with all the power teams this year.