Big Sky Playoff Forecast

[Walkon79]

Current standings and remaining schedule:

NAU 5-0, 7-1 - @ ISU, SUU, Cal Poly
Cal Poly 5-1, 7-1 - @ EWU (OOC), ISU, @ NAU
EWU 5-1, 6-2- Cal Poly, UCD, @ PSU
MSU 4-1, 7-1 - @ Sac St, PSU, @ UM
Sac St 4-2, 6-3 - MSU, Bye, @ UCD

All I really know is the obvious. Any of these 5 win out and they will likely get an invitation to the dance. Any of the top four win out and the likely get a seed. Other than that all bets are off!!

Discuss?

[Walkon79]

Without the Griz on the list, it might be tough to keep this on page one this week.

Come on Guys!!!

[dbackjon]

NAU is in the driver's seat, with only one road game left, against ISU. SUU and Cal Poly are tough, tough teams, but NAU gets a break by having them at home.

MSU has the toughest schedule left - trips to Sacramento and Missoula. Montana is down, but they would like nothing better but to deny MSU a seed.

While OOC, the Cal Poly-EWU will knock one of them out of seed consideration.

[Walkon79]

Here's my take:

NAU ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a loss to CP
CP ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a loss to EWU OOC
EWU ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a win over CP OOC
MSU wins out and ends up 7-1, 10-1
SAC ends up 5-3, 7-4 and barely misses the playoffs.

If this happens which I think is very possible, who gets the AQ with a four way tie?

My take would be EWU with the AQ and a seed, based on their head to head win over MSU. Poly, MSU and NAU all make the field and MSU also gets a seed based on 10 wins and a close loss to EWU.

[kmax]

Here's my take:

NAU ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a loss to CP
CP ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a loss to EWU OOC
EWU ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a win over CP OOC
MSU wins out and ends up 7-1, 10-1
SAC ends up 5-3, 7-4 and barely misses the playoffs.

If this happens which I think is very possible, who gets the AQ with a four way tie?

My take would be EWU with the AQ and a seed, based on their head to head win over MSU. Poly, MSU and NAU all make the field and MSU also gets a seed based on 10 wins and a close loss to EWU.
In that scenario the AQ would go to the team with the highest Sagarin rating...yep, it's that bad.

Tiebreakers:
1. Head to head: Of those four not all have played each other so doesn't apply, onto #2.
2. Record against common SCHEDULED conference opponents: Record for all four against common in conference opponents would be undefeated, onto #3.
3. Record against common conference opponents played as non-conference games: No common games here, onto #4.
4. Record against common non-conference opponents: No common games here, onto #5.
5. Team with highest Sagarin rating: should somehow two teams have the exact same Sagarin rating it gets even worse going to #6.
6. Coin-flip

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Here's my take:

NAU ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a loss to CP
CP ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a loss to EWU OOC
EWU ends up 7-1, 9-2 with a win over CP OOC
MSU wins out and ends up 7-1, 10-1
SAC ends up 5-3, 7-4 and barely misses the playoffs.

If this happens which I think is very possible, who gets the AQ with a four way tie?

My take would be EWU with the AQ and a seed, based on their head to head win over MSU. Poly, MSU and NAU all make the field and MSU also gets a seed based on 10 wins and a close loss to EWU.

Technically, MSU would have 9 wins that count because of the DII. I also seeing MSU losing to either Sac or UM, but probably not both. If it's Sac, then I think we'll get 5 teams in. I'm not sold on EWU beating CP though. We'll need both DTs and LB Zach Johnson back if we're to have a chance against the triple option. It was bad when SUU was running at will on us this weekend.

[Walkon79]

Yeah, the non-counter against Chadron might knock us out of a seed. Too bad since they're probably as good or better than 1/2 the teams in the Big Sky this year. :)

[clawman]

Yeah, the non-counter against Chadron might knock us out of a seed. Too bad since they're probably as good or better than 1/2 the teams in the Big Sky this year. :)

And that win against a non-scholly Drake is not much to brag about. Your other non conference win against SFA is becoming less valuable by the week. In fact who do you have as what would be considered a "quality" win?

[Walkon79]

Probably none stand out so far, but you play who's on the schedule. As a matter of fact, I would like to see EWU get a seed and put us in the same bracket :)

We can start getting our "quality wins" in the playoffs, starting with the used tampon in the second round :)

[Walkon79]

I would think the win over SUU at their place would be looking pretty good to you guys right now :)

[clawman]

Probably none stand out so far, but you play who's on the schedule. As a matter of fact, I would like to see EWU get a seed and put us in the same bracket :)

We can start getting our "quality wins" in the playoffs, starting with the used tampon in the second round :)

You're ON!
Bring it!!
Game ON!!
Lets DO IT!!

That would be fun.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Yeah, the non-counter against Chadron might knock us out of a seed. Too bad since they're probably as good or better than 1/2 the teams in the Big Sky this year. :)

LMFAO. Put the pot brownie down.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I would think the win over SUU at their place would be looking pretty good to you guys right now :)

I don't know, that win @ Bozeman looks better. ;)

[Walkon79]

I don't know, that win @ Bozeman looks better. ;)

You mean that GIFT in Bozeman?

[MTfan4life]

Last week we were talking about Cal Poly being a potential #1 seed. Now, if they lose their next two road games, they could miss the playoffs entirely. Sure they'd have 8 wins but over who? Wyoming, yes, but then North Dakota or San Diego would be the next best win. They are going to need to finish 2-1 to avoid that uncertainty, imo.

[dudeitsaid]

I'm not sold on EWU beating CP though. We'll need both DTs and LB Zach Johnson back if we're to have a chance against the triple option. It was bad when SUU was running at will on us this weekend.

Completely agree. EWU's run defense has been horrible this year. I have no idea why anyone is passing at all. The fact teams have passed the ball is the only reason we are not dead last in run defense. I've chalked the CP game as a loss for a while due to the triple option, and if EWU doesn't figure out how to defend the run better, they may not make it to the playoffs, much less win a game once they get there! Lot's of good things going on with the Eagles team this year, but defending the run is not one of them.

[kalm]

Completely agree. EWU's run defense has been horrible this year. I have no idea why anyone is passing at all. The fact teams have passed the ball is the only reason we are not dead last in run defense. I've chalked the CP game as a loss for a while due to the triple option, and if EWU doesn't figure out how to defend the run better, they may not make it to the playoffs, much less win a game once they get there! Lot's of good things going on with the Eagles team this year, but defending the run is not one of them.

Good post. Our front 7 was a strength against Idaho, WSU, UND, and MSU. Christ we held MSU to something like 70 yards rushing. If we're healthy, we can stop the run. But we're not, so we're going to have to create a few takeaways and outscore Poly like we did last year. Getting up early on them would also help.

As for the playoffs, I think both big games this weekend are toss ups, but the dust will settle a bit come Sunday. I'm guessing MSU loses one of it's final three, mostly likely to Sac (who is playing very good football right now). The other three are still a toss up and I'm guessing NAU-Poly will still be a toss up come game time. If we win this week, I don't see us losing again. The four teams at 9-2 scenario is still in play and a testament to who good this conference is right now.

[GtFllsGriz]

There is a lot of parity this season in the Big Sky. Each team has some strengths and weaknesses. Based on last weekend it seems that the Cats have the best balanced offense/defense team. They looked really good against UND, a team that I thought was pretty good even though one dimensional. There are a lot of good matchups at the end of the season that are going to shake things up. I look for NAU to struggle a little, EWU and CP are a toss up. I think the Cats will rise to the top but they shouldn't take Sac or the Griz for granted.

MSU at Missoula may be interesting. You certainly can't bet against the Cats but I think the QB change at Missoula will make them more respectable in the passing game which will open up and already good running game. I wish the change would have been made earlier in the season. The big question will be the secondary slowing down Bleskin and the other receivers. I don't think that can be done.

[Catbooster]

Current standings and remaining schedule:

NAU 5-0, 7-1 - @ ISU, SUU, Cal Poly
Cal Poly 5-1, 7-1 - @ EWU (OOC), ISU, @ NAU
EWU 5-1, 6-2- Cal Poly, UCD, @ PSU
MSU 4-1, 7-1 - @ Sac St, PSU, @ UM
Sac St 4-2, 6-3 - MSU, Bye, @ UCD

All I really know is the obvious. Any of these 5 win out and they will likely get an invitation to the dance. Any of the top four win out and the likely get a seed. Other than that all bets are off!!

Discuss?
I agree that anyone on the list that wins out will likely make the playoffs, and other than Sac State they will be in the discussion for a seed. I'm not sure tie-breakers are important this year. It seems unlikely that the best conference record will have two losses. Assuming that the conference champ only has one loss (there won't be a tie-breaker if NAU wins out) I think all the teams tying will make the playoffs anyway. So I don't think the auto-berth is important. We've seen teams with the auto-berth get lower seeds than the at-large before. I don't think the tie-breaker really affects seeding.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

There is a lot of parity this season in the Big Sky. Each team has some strengths and weaknesses. Based on last weekend it seems that the Cats have the best balanced offense/defense team. They looked really good against UND, a team that I thought was pretty good even though one dimensional. There are a lot of good matchups at the end of the season that are going to shake things up. I look for NAU to struggle a little, EWU and CP are a toss up. I think the Cats will rise to the top but they shouldn't take Sac or the Griz for granted.

MSU at Missoula may be interesting. You certainly can't bet against the Cats but I think the QB change at Missoula will make them more respectable in the passing game which will open up and already good running game. I wish the change would have been made earlier in the season. The big question will be the secondary slowing down Bleskin and the other receivers. I don't think that can be done.


I disagree. EWU did the same thing to them, winning 55-17 (one TD worse than MSU's score). Like ISU, UN_ has no D.

As of right now, considering who each has played (MSU, NAU, and CP have had relatively easy schedules thus far), the top 4 are pretty evenly matched, IMO.

TEAM | D-I RECORD, BSC RECORD | GOOD WINS* | OOC SCHED
EWU 6-2, 5-1: Good wins over FBS Idaho (by 17-A), UND (by 38-H), MSU (by 3-A), & Sac (by 3-H). 2 FBS (Idaho, WSU) & 1 FCS (Top 25 CP)
MSU 6-1, 4-1: Good wins over SUU (by 7-A), & UND (by 45-H). 2 FCS (SFA, Non-Scholly Drake) & 1 D-II (Chadron State)
NAU 6-1, 5-0: Good wins over FBS UNLV (by 3-A), UM (by 10-A), UND (by 7-A). 2 FBS (ASU, UNLV) & 1 D-II (Ft. Lewis)
CP 7-1, 5-1: Good wins over FBS Wyoming (by 2-A), UND (by 18-A), WSU (by 22-A), UNC (by 28-H). 1 FBS (WYO) & 2 FCS (Non-Scholly San Diego, Top-25 EWU)

*For what it's worth, I considered good wins as any FBS win, any win over EWU, MSU, CP, NAU, or SAC, home (H) wins by 21 or more, and away (A) wins by 7 or more.

[darell1976]

I think its going to be good race to the title. I picked MSU and Cal Poly for the title at the beginning of the year. I didn't think the Cal Poly at NAU game could decide the championship. NAU a big surprise in this race. I am glad UND got to play all the teams in this dog fight. It will prepare us for next year's fight. Good luck to all the teams in the race to the BSC title, also good luck in the playoffs we will be rooting for you!! Go Big Sky!!!

[Walkon79]

As they say, one game at a time. I solid win at Sac State on Saturday means we're peaking at the right time.

I loss with a bunch of TO's? The Cats might be in trouble.

[catbob]

Cats need to protect the rock at Sac, and have at the very least decent success running the ball. If we can't get a push from the OL, Sac will have an easier time defending the pass, though still not an easy task.

If the Cats are even in the TO battle, we should win, but it won't be a blowout by any stretch. Maybe 27-21 Cats.

[Griz_are_Beta_AF]

Cats need to protect the rock at Sac, and have at the very least decent success running the ball. If we can't get a push from the OL, Sac will have an easier time defending the pass, though still not an easy task.

If the Cats are even in the TO battle, we should win, but it won't be a blowout by any stretch. Maybe 27-21 Cats.

Our running games seems to be peaking right now, with Kirk over 150 last week and Davis just short. I think this game comes down to passing. I think if either team has a lot of success in the air that team will win. You just never know with our secondary, although they've been playing really well the last two games.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Our running games seems to be peaking right now, with Kirk over 150 last week and Davis just short. I think this game comes down to passing. I think if either team has a lot of success in the air that team will win. You just never know with our secondary, although they've been playing really well the last two games.

EWU rushed for 300 yards against UND, so analyze your running game based off success against UND at your own risk.

[Walkon79]

EWU rushed for 300 yards against UND, so analyze your running game based off success against UND at your own risk.

Did u go for almost 700 total and 40 first downs?

[Griz_are_Beta_AF]

EWU rushed for 300 yards against UND, so analyze your running game based off success against UND at your own risk.

Our total rushing yards was over 400, I think it was around 430. That includes Robinson, Johnson, and McGhee as well as Davis and Kirk.

[MSUBobcat]

Now that they are healthy, this defense is shutting everything down. Against what was supposed to be a good EWU offense, they were held to 211 yards and only scored 13 pts and 7 of those came on a drive continued by a retarded roughing the kicker with EWU on 4th and 20 on their own 19 xnonono2x. (Normally sure footed Perez missing a 33 yarder was pretty inexplicable also.) Then they held the high octane UND offense to 180 yards of offense.