What will it take to be comfortable on Nov 18

[Engineer86]

There is a long way to go and many different ways for things to play out, but this list gives you some idea of how many teams have their destiny still in their hands and what they may need to do to get there. I assumed that teams in the BSC, MVFC, CAA, SoCon, and Southland would need to get to 8 division 1wins to be safe for an at large bid and in the remaining leagues teams would need 9 wins. I am sure some would argue that level of wins and how a given league was treated, but using these assumptions, there are 34 teams that still have a realistic chance of "being comfortable" come selection day.

Here are the teams and what they need to do. I update this for requirements of Lehigh and Albany requiring 10-1, based on comments. Cal Poly to 9-2, because losing 3 of last 4 would be a concern if that happened. Sam Houtston to 7-4 allowing for a Texas AM lose. Otherwise using the same assumptions and the number of teams still alive with those assumptions is down to 26 with three weeks to play. A 7-4 power conference or others below the assumptions used are likely to make the playoffs, because I doubt 20 will make it though the season.

Call Poly - win 2 of 3
EWU - win 2 of 3
NAU - win 2 of 3
MSU - win 2 of 3
Sac St - win 2 of 2

Stony Brook - win 1 of 2 (fixed mistake from last week)

UNH - win 1 of 2
Nova - win 2 of 2
ODU - win 1 of 3
JMU - win 2 of 3
Richmond - win 3 of 3
UD - off list

BCU - 3 of 3

ISUb - 1 of 2
SIU - off list
NDSU - 1 of 3
SDSU - 2 of 3
ISUr - 1 of 2
YSU - off list

Albany - 3 of 3
Duquesne - off list

EKU - off list
Tenn Martin - 2 of 2
Tenn St - 1 of 2

Lehigh - 2 of 3
Lafayette - off list

GSU - 2 of 3
Wofford - 2 of 3
Chatty - off list
Citadel - off list
ASU - 2 of 2
Samford - 3 of 3

UCA - 2 of 2
SHSU - 2 of 3

Right now there are 16 teams out of the 26 teams on this list fighting for 10 at large spots using my assumed win requirements. If someone other than a team on this list wins their conference, it increases the 16 teams competing for those 10 spots.

I realize there could be many arguments about the number of division 1 wins a given team might need, but I tried to stay somewhat consistent. I would expect that a very large number of the 20 playoff teams will come from this list though.

The question is will we get to the point that the number of teams on the list based on my assumptions will go below 20. I think this is possible due to the number of teams that still have to play each other.

[Hawk98]

Not convinced a 9-2 3rd place Lehigh is going to get in. I think they need 2 of 3.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Not convinced a 9-2 3rd place Lehigh is going to get in. I think they need 2 of 3.

I agree. Lehigh would be in big trouble at 9-2 and a 1-2 finish.

[Pard4Life]

Not convinced a 9-2 3rd place Lehigh is going to get in. I think they need 2 of 3.

Right, two straight losses to finish the year and a third place finish will not get it done.

[melloware13]

IF (and that's a huge if) UD beats ODU, the remaining 3 games on their schedule have the opportunity to be playoff elimination games, so that should help clear things up a bit for the CAA.

[Engineer86]

I do not disagree if Lehigh loses two they would be a 50/50 chance at best, but I did not want to try to use individual team assumptions.

[Grizo406]

For me to be comfortable on 18 November, I'll hafta' be able to say...with some conviction, "After two close losses to ISU & Weber State, the Griz beat the Bobcats, yesterday!".xbawlingxxbawlingxxbawlingx

[Professor Chaos]

UD - 4 of 4
SHSU - 4 of 4

Both of these teams are in if they only win 3 of 4.

[TheValleyRaider]

4-for-4 would give Lafayette the autobid, which means you should probably put Colgate on the list in the same way. I don't think either of us gets in without winning the League

[ngineer]

Right, two straight losses to finish the year and a third place finish will not get it done.

If you're going to lose two games, you need to do it early in the season to redeem yourself. While 9-2 is 9-2, that is the reality.

[LouiseBFree]

I think history shows that Southland teams with seven DI wins have been near locks for the field. The committee has much more respect for the SLC than the folks on these boards who are too caught up in the meaningless polls and Sagrin ratings.

Sam Houston does not have to go 4-for-4 for comfort (thus meaning they would have to beat Texas A&M). By beating Lamar, SE La. and NW La., they are 8-2 overall and no worse than co-champs with their seven DI wins in pocket before heading to College Station. I'd count on it at this point.

C Ark. just needs to to go 2-1 to reach 7 DI wins, and will likely finsih 3-0 with atleast a co-champ.

And don't rule out SF Austin yet that can run the table and maybe get the SSouthland Auto bid, probably meaning three bids.

Lots of ball left.



There is a long way to go and many different ways for things to play out, but this list gives you some idea of how many teams have their destiny still in their hands and what they may need to do to get there. I assumed that teams in the BSC, MVFC, CAA, SoCon, and Southland would need to get to 8 division 1wins to be safe for an at large bid and in the remaining leagues teams would need 9 wins. I am sure some would argue that level of wins and how a given league was treated, but using these assumptions, there are 34 teams that still have a realistic chance of "being comfortable" come selection day.

Here are the teams and what they need to do.

Call Poly - win 1 of 4
EWU - win 2 of 4
NAU - win 3 of 4
MSU - win 3 of 4
Sac St - win 3 of 3

Stony Brook - win 1 of 3

UNH - win 2 of 3
Nova - win 2 of 3
ODU - win 2 of 4
JMU - win 3 of 4
Richmond - win 3 of 3
UD - 4 of 4

BCU - 4 of 4

ISUb - 2 of 3
SIU - 3 of 3
NDSU - 2 of 4
SDSU - 3 of 4
ISUr - 2 of 3
YSU - 4 of 4

Albany - 3 of 4
Duquesne - 4 of 4

EKU - 3 of 3
Tenn Martin - 3 of 3
Tenn St - 2 of 3

Lehigh - 1 of 3
Lafayette - 4 of 4

GSU - 2 of 4
Wofford - 2 of 4
Chatty - 4 of 4
Citadel - 4 of 4
ASU - 3 of 3
Samford - 3 of 3

UCA - 3 of 3
SHSU - 4 of 4

Right now there are 24 teams out of the 34 teams on this list fighting for 10 at large spots using my assumed win requirements. If someone other than a team on this list wins their conference, it increases the 24 teams competing for those 10 spots.

I realize there could be many arguments about the number of division 1 wins a given team might need, but I tried to stay somewhat consistent. I would expect that a very large number of the 20 playoff teams will come from this list though.

The question is will we get to the point that the number of teams on the list based on my assumptions will go below 20. I think this is possible due to the number of teams that still have to play each other.

[Engineer86]

I think history shows that Southland teams with seven DI wins have been near locks for the field. The committee has much more respect for the SLC than the folks on these boards who are too caught up in the meaningless polls and Sagrin ratings.

Sam Houston does not have to go 4-for-4 for comfort (thus meaning they would have to beat Texas A&M). By beating Lamar, SE La. and NW La., they are 8-2 overall and no worse than co-champs with their seven DI wins in pocket before heading to College Station. I'd count on it at this point.

C Ark. just needs to to go 2-1 to reach 7 DI wins, and will likely finsih 3-0 with atleast a co-champ.

And don't rule out SF Austin yet that can run the table and maybe get the SSouthland Auto bid, probably meaning three bids.

Lots of ball left.

I realize if you think 7 D 1 wins gets SHSU in they can go 3-1, but that is the assumption used. I did not use individual team assumptions, just like I said earlier at 9-2, Lehigh might not get in

[Samalum'10]

Has a top 10 team ever been left out of the playoffs? Also, does anybody know who the highest ranked team was to be left out of the playoffs?

[Professor Chaos]

Has a top 10 team ever been left out of the playoffs? Also, does anybody know who the highest ranked team was to be left out of the playoffs?
NDSU was ranked #4 in 2006 and #8 in 2007 didn't make the playoffs either year. :D

In all seriousness I'm 99% sure a 7-3 Sam Houston team would be in. It's tough to correlate who was the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs with what will happen this year since the playoff field used to be smaller. I don't have the resouces in front of me but I'm sure there were fringe top 10 teams that missed the playoffs when it was only 16 teams.

[R.A.]

A 9-2 (7-1 MEAC) Howard University team, makes the playoffs... in order to become 9-2, The Bison Football team must win our last four games-- @SC State, Hampton, @#3 Georgia Southern, Delaware State.

Currently, we're 5-2.

So, although you didn't include my Howard "Bison" in the teams that are vying for an at-large bid, in order for The Howard Bison to be comfortable on 11.18.12, we absolutely need to win 4 out of 4.

[WrenFGun]

A 9-2 (7-1 MEAC) Howard University team, makes the playoffs... in order to become 9-2, The Bison Football team must win our last four games-- @SC State, Hampton, @#3 Georgia Southern, Delaware State.

Currently, we're 5-2.

So, although you didn't include my Howard "Bison" in the teams that are vying for an at-large bid, in order for The Howard Bison to be comfortable on 11.18.12, we absolutely need to win 4 out of 4.

I tend to agree. 9-2 with a win over Georgia Southern would be a pretty good argument.

[WileECoyote06]

A 9-2 (7-1 MEAC) Howard University team, makes the playoffs... in order to become 9-2, The Bison Football team must win our last four games-- @SC State, Hampton, @#3 Georgia Southern, Delaware State.

Currently, we're 5-2.

So, although you didn't include my Howard "Bison" in the teams that are vying for an at-large bid, in order for The Howard Bison to be comfortable on 11.18.12, we absolutely need to win 4 out of 4.

Good catch.

Also if NCCU wins it's remaining games (highly unlikely, but hey you never know); we will win the MEAC autobid with an 8 - 0 (9-2) conference record. The MEAC is far from decided; but the next two weeks should shake it out enough to give us a clearer picture.

[R.A.]

Good catch.

Also if NCCU wins it's remaining games (highly unlikely, but hey you never know); we will win the MEAC autobid with an 8 - 0 (9-2) conference record. The MEAC is far from decided; but the next two weeks should shake it out enough to give us a clearer picture.

I don't think it's unlikely, NCCU looked great versus Hampton. Tenn State's okay, but Bethune should have defeated them though, so Bethune is defeatable. But like we have to win our last four games, so does North Carolina Central.

[Engineer86]

A 9-2 (7-1 MEAC) Howard University team, makes the playoffs... in order to become 9-2, The Bison Football team must win our last four games-- @SC State, Hampton, @#3 Georgia Southern, Delaware State.

Currently, we're 5-2.

So, although you didn't include my Howard "Bison" in the teams that are vying for an at-large bid, in order for The Howard Bison to be comfortable on 11.18.12, we absolutely need to win 4 out of 4.

I left you off the list because with the DII win vs Morehouse, Hampton can only get to 8 DI wins. That said a win at GSU, could change that 9 win assumption I used.

[Samalum'10]

NDSU was ranked #4 in 2006 and #8 in 2007 didn't make the playoffs either year. :D

In all seriousness I'm 99% sure a 7-3 Sam Houston team would be in. It's tough to correlate who was the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs with what will happen this year since the playoff field used to be smaller. I don't have the resouces in front of me but I'm sure there were fringe top 10 teams that missed the playoffs when it was only 16 teams.
Ah, thanks for the info. I posted this question on katfans, haven't received an answer yet. Has the SLC ever been represented by 3 teams in the playoffs?

[Polywog]

I think Poly needs to win two of their last four. If they only beat Idaho State and lose to Sac, EWU and Northern AZ its a tougher argument to send them as an at-large, even with an 8-3 record. They must beat at least one of the power schools to feel comfortable on selection day.

[tingly]

I'll only breathe easy with 3-1 or 4-0 for Cal Poly. I think 1-3 has Poly on the wrong side of the bubble. 2 of 4 is iffy with the losses being to EWU and NAU. The committee won't regard the Wyoming win as highly as they might have with Wyoming being without their QB that week. The other results wouldn't make it terribly obvious that Poly should get an at-large, but it might be enough.

[danefan]

10-1 with the NEC AQ locked.


Anything else and Albany will be packing their things for the CAA.

[TheRevSFA]

We just need SFA, and UCA to win out, or SFA wins out and Sam steps on their jocks. Either one will suffice.

[TheRevSFA]

NDSU was ranked #4 in 2006 and #8 in 2007 didn't make the playoffs either year. :D

In all seriousness I'm 99% sure a 7-3 Sam Houston team would be in. It's tough to correlate who was the highest ranked team to not make the playoffs with what will happen this year since the playoff field used to be smaller. I don't have the resouces in front of me but I'm sure there were fringe top 10 teams that missed the playoffs when it was only 16 teams.

NDSU wasn't playoff eligible then..were they?

[Engineer86]

There is a long way to go and many different ways for things to play out, but this list gives you some idea of how many teams have their destiny still in their hands and what they may need to do to get there. I assumed that teams in the BSC, MVFC, CAA, SoCon, and Southland would need to get to 8 division 1wins to be safe for an at large bid and in the remaining leagues teams would need 9 wins. I am sure some would argue that level of wins and how a given league was treated, but using these assumptions, there are 34 teams that still have a realistic chance of "being comfortable" come selection day.

Here are the teams and what they need to do. I update this for requirements of Lehigh and Albany requiring 10-1, based on comments. Cal Poly to 9-2, because losing 3 of last 4 would be a concern if that happened. Sam Houtston to 7-4 allowing for a Texas AM lose. Otherwise using the same assumptions and the number of teams still alive with those assumptions is down to 26 with three weeks to play. A 7-4 power conference or others below the assumptions used are likely to make the playoffs, because I doubt 20 will make it though the season.

Call Poly - win 2 of 3
EWU - win 2 of 3
NAU - win 2 of 3
MSU - win 2 of 3
Sac St - win 2 of 2

Stony Brook - win 1 of 2 (fixed mistake from last week)

UNH - win 1 of 2
Nova - win 2 of 2
ODU - win 1 of 3
JMU - win 2 of 3
Richmond - win 3 of 3
UD - off list

BCU - 3 of 3

ISUb - 1 of 2
SIU - off list
NDSU - 1 of 3
SDSU - 2 of 3
ISUr - 1 of 2
YSU - off list

Albany - 3 of 3
Duquesne - off list

EKU - off list
Tenn Martin - 2 of 2
Tenn St - 1 of 2

Lehigh - 2 of 3
Lafayette - off list

GSU - 2 of 3
Wofford - 2 of 3
Chatty - off list
Citadel - off list
ASU - 2 of 2
Samford - 3 of 3

UCA - 2 of 2
SHSU - 2 of 3

Right now there are 16 teams out of the 26 teams on this list fighting for 10 at large spots using my assumed win requirements. If someone other than a team on this list wins their conference, it increases the 16 teams competing for those 10 spots.

I realize there could be many arguments about the number of division 1 wins a given team might need, but I tried to stay somewhat consistent. I would expect that a very large number of the 20 playoff teams will come from this list though.

The question is will we get to the point that the number of teams on the list based on my assumptions will go below 20. I think this is possible due to the number of teams that still have to play each other.

I update this list with new assumptions for Lehigh and Albany, based on their own fans posts to require 10-1 for safety. Cal Poly to 9-2, because losing 3 of last 4 would not be safe and Sam Houston, allowing 8-3 and 7 DI wins based on two DI loses and high ranking (that last part makes them different than Towson)