Playoff Prediction Week 8

[Go Apps]

Cal Poly vs Stoney Brook
Lehigh vs JMU winner vs 1) North Dakota State

Wofford vs 5) ODU
Albany vs N Hampshire winner vs 4) Sam Houston State

Montana State vs Illinois State
N. Arizona vs EKU winner vs 2) E Washington

Tenn State vs Villanova
Bethune vs C. Arkansas winner vs 3) GSU

Autobids - Albany - NEC, Villanova-CAA, GSU-Southern, E. Washington -Big Sky, Tenn State - OVC, NDSU - MVC, Lehigh- Patriot, Sam Houston State - Southland, Stony Brook - Big South, Behtune-MEAC

At Large - Mont State, ODU, Cal Poly, N. Arizona, EKU, N. Hampshire, JMU, Illinois State, C. Arkansas, Wofford

This weeks bubble teams - UTC, ASU, South dakota State, Tenn Martin, Delaware, Indiana State, Elon, Richmond

DEVELOPING STORY LINES...

-Lots of losses in the 10-25 range this week
-Conference Titles are more foggy than last week???
-Still do not beieve that a 4 loss at-large team will make the field

[paward]

-Lots of losses in the 10-25 range this week

I think this trend will continue. Therefore it will be possible for a 4 lose team to make it in, It all depends on the resume at season end. With all the parody in FCS this year it would not surprise me given the 20 team format.

[walliver]

Elon could end up at 7-4, but having lost to the Big 3 and win no marquee win, they have almost no chance of a bid. The Citadel would have a better chance as a bubble team.

[Engineer86]

There is no way Tenn St or Ill St get first round byes after this weekend's losses. If Lehigh wins out, with what you have there, Lehigh will be at Villanova

[kalm]

Sac St. looked very capable yesterday. They get Poly and MSU at home the next two weeks before finishing on the road at Davis. I would not be shocked to see them run the table and get to 8-3.

[Engineer86]

Cal Poly vs Stoney Brook
Lehigh vs JMU winner vs 1) North Dakota State

Wofford vs 5) ODU
Albany vs N Hampshire winner vs 4) Sam Houston State

Montana State vs Illinois State
N. Arizona vs EKU winner vs 2) E Washington

Tenn State vs Villanova
Bethune vs C. Arkansas winner vs 3) GSU

Autobids - Albany - NEC, Villanova-CAA, GSU-Southern, E. Washington -Big Sky, Tenn State - OVC, NDSU - MVC, Lehigh- Patriot, Sam Houston State - Southland, Stony Brook - Big South, Behtune-MEAC

At Large - Mont State, ODU, Cal Poly, N. Arizona, EKU, N. Hampshire, JMU, Illinois State, C. Arkansas

This weeks bubble teams - UTC, ASU, South dakota State, Tenn Martin, Delaware, Indiana State, Elon, Richmond

DEVELOPING STORY LINES...

-Lots of losses in the 10-25 range this week
-Conference Titles are more foggy than last week???
-Still do not beieve that a 4 loss at-large team will make the field

Wofford is your 10th at large, not on the list.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

The PL is shaping up to be very interesting. The "power" conference fans need to start pulling for Lehigh to win out.

Lehigh 8-0 (2-0)
10/27 BYE
11/3 @ Holy Cross
11/10 Colgate
11/17 @ Lafayette

Colgate 4-3 (2-0)
10/27 @ Bucknell
11/3 Lafayette
11/10 @ Lehigh
11/17 @ Fordham

Lafayette 5-2 (2-0)
10/27 Georgetown
11/3 @ Colgate
11/10 @ Fordham
11/17 Lehigh

[superman7515]

With all the parody in FCS this year it would not surprise me given the 20 team format.

I think you meant parity, although with the way this season has went, parody is equally as fitting a description.

[FargoBison]

Sac St. looked very capable yesterday. They get Poly and MSU at home the next two weeks before finishing on the road at Davis. I would not be shocked to see them run the table and get to 8-3.

Kalm...calm down. Sac State hasn't exactly been a model of consistency. But I wouldn't be shocked to seem them upset one of those schools...I also wouldn't be shocked if they went 0-3.

[kalm]

Kalm...calm down. Sac State hasn't exactly been a model of consistency. But I wouldn't be shocked to seem them upset one of those schools...I also wouldn't be shocked if they went 0-3.

Neither have we. The margin for error is razor thin. We are an onside kick and blocked punt away from being a bubble team ourselves. I'm not saying Sac WILL do it, but they pass the eyeball test and I wouldn't be all that surprised.

[FargoBison]

Neither have we. The margin for error is razor thin. We are an onside kick and blocked punt away from being a bubble team ourselves. I'm not saying Sac WILL do it, but they pass the eyeball test and I wouldn't be all that surprised.

I will say the most I've seen of Sac St this year was their game at home vs UND and they were dreadful.

[Seawolf97]

Stony Brook vs Cal Poly would be interesting. Who goes where on this coast to coast match up ?

[WrenFGun]

The PL is shaping up to be very interesting. The "power" conference fans need to start pulling for Lehigh to win out.

Lehigh 8-0 (2-0)
10/27 BYE
11/3 @ Holy Cross
11/10 Colgate
11/17 @ Lafayette

Colgate 4-3 (2-0)
10/27 @ Bucknell
11/3 Lafayette
11/10 @ Lehigh
11/17 @ Fordham

Lafayette 5-2 (2-0)
10/27 Georgetown
11/3 @ Colgate
11/10 @ Fordham
11/17 Lehigh

Lehigh should focus on winning out if they want to make the playoffs.

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

Lehigh should focus on winning out if they want to make the playoffs.

I'm not even worried at 10-1.....

[WrenFGun]

I'm not even worried at 10-1.....

So who has Lehigh beat to separate them from a PFL team at 10-1?

[Go Lehigh TU owl]

So who has Lehigh beat to separate them from a PFL team at 10-1?

Princeton and Fordham, either Lafayette or Colgate and maybe Liberty if they get past Coastal this week and emerge as a true challenger to SBU...

[WrenFGun]

Princeton and Fordham, either Lafayette or Colgate and maybe Liberty if they get past Coastal this week and emerge as a true challenger to SBU...

Right, so, again, who has Lehigh beaten? Those teams aren't very good (none are top 25 caliber or close) so I was just curious. If you start comparing a 10-1 Lehigh to an 8-3 Richmond, there's no way you can tell me that Lehigh has a better resume, for instance.

[stevdock]

Right, so, again, who has Lehigh beaten? Those teams aren't very good (none are top 25 caliber or close) so I was just curious. If you start comparing a 10-1 Lehigh to an 8-3 Richmond, there's no way you can tell me that Lehigh has a better resume, for instance.

The #1 seed in this ranking hasn't beaten anyone who is better though. In NDSU's 6 wins, their opponents have a total of 12 wins, and before yesterday 5 of those 6 teams had no more than 1 D1 win. If Lehigh is 10-1 and doesn't win the conference I would be shocked if they are not in.

[WrenFGun]

NDSU has a wins over YSU (4-3, impressive resume) and an FBS school. There's no comparison.

[Engineer86]

So who has Lehigh beat to separate them from a PFL team at 10-1?

Towson st. xcoffeex

[Engineer86]

NDSU has a wins over YSU (4-3, impressive resume) and an FBS school. There's no comparison.

Yea we get it, you have no respect for the Patriot League, if you think a 10-1 Lehigh does not get in you must be in North Dakota at the "Big Ten party"

[ITmonarch10]

NDSU has a wins over YSU (4-3, impressive resume) and an FBS school. There's no comparison.

I still think NDSU are the best team in FCS ,but man are NDSU wins starting to look less impressive every week. UNI, YSU, and even the FBS win over Colorado State looks less impressive due to each schools respective losing streak. Colorado State has only one win against the even worse Colorado football team. Oddly enough, NDSU could just now be getting tested in their FCS schedule.

[WrenFGun]

Towson st. xcoffeex

LOL. Last year's win?

I have a problem with the Patriot League because they haven't played or beaten anyone and then they whine when they play in the play-in game. Yes, great, they beat Towson last year and played UNH down to the wire... that doesn't matter when it comes to evaluating their current season performance and schedule.

[Engineer86]

LOL. Last year's win?

I have a problem with the Patriot League because they haven't played or beaten anyone and then they whine when they play in the play-in game. Yes, great, they beat Towson last year and played UNH down to the wire... that doesn't matter when it comes to evaluating their current season performance and schedule.

No whining about a play in game, we play and often beat who they give us in the first game. My comment was that if Lehigh is 11-0, and Tennessee St is 10-1, we are likely playing Villanova in a by than Tenn St. Do you thing a10-1 Tenn St would be viewed better than an 11-0 Lehigh?

[WrenFGun]

No whining about a play in game, we play and often beat who they give us in the first game. My comment was that if Lehigh is 11-0, and Tennessee St is 10-1, we are likely playing Villanova in a by than Tenn St. Do you thing a10-1 Tenn St would be viewed better than an 11-0 Lehigh?

Probably. I think the OVC has some teams with some wins (EIU beat Southern Illinois, for instance) that the PL doesn't have the fortune of having. Both teams should be in the play-in, though if Lehigh runs the table I do think they'll get a bye.

[BEAR]

Q: Does a 6 D-I win team get in?

A: If they are named SFA and share a conference title with a 7 D-I and an 8 D-I win team.

Q: IF it comes down to a 7 D-I win team vs. an 8 D-I win team, who gets in? Especially if that 8 D-I win team defeated the 7 win D-I team?

A: beats me. Any idea? Do 3 SLC teams make it? Especially since that 7 D-I win team is a top ten team that made the national title game last year?

Too many questions.
xlolx

[FargoBison]

Q: Does a 6 D-I win team get in?

A: If they are named SFA and share a conference title with a 7 D-I and an 8 D-I win team.

Q: IF it comes down to a 7 D-I win team vs. an 8 D-I win team, who gets in? Especially if that 8 D-I win team defeated the 7 win D-I team?

A: beats me. Any idea? Do 3 SLC teams make it? Especially since that 7 D-I win team is a top ten team that made the national title game last year?

Too many questions.
xlolx

A 6 win team is only getting in via autobid this year. The 8 win team would have the head to head and that is king.

I think the SLC is looking at two bids right now, there are just too many teams that could have 8 DI wins or better.

[CopperCat]

Sac St. looked very capable yesterday. They get Poly and MSU at home the next two weeks before finishing on the road at Davis. I would not be shocked to see them run the table and get to 8-3.

Sac would have a hard time with Poly's offense. Don't think there is much of a chance of them running the table.

[Professor Chaos]

Q: Does a 6 D-I win team get in?

A: If they are named SFA and share a conference title with a 7 D-I and an 8 D-I win team.

Q: IF it comes down to a 7 D-I win team vs. an 8 D-I win team, who gets in? Especially if that 8 D-I win team defeated the 7 win D-I team?

A: beats me. Any idea? Do 3 SLC teams make it? Especially since that 7 D-I win team is a top ten team that made the national title game last year?

Too many questions.
xlolx
I think it's highly unlikely that the SLC gets more than 2 teams in. The way I see it the Big Sky is going to take 3 at large spots, the MVFC at least 1, the SOCON at least 2, and the CAA at least 3. That only leaves one more at large spot open for the OVC/SLC/PL and that last spot could get vulched by another team from the MVFC, CAA, or SOCON.

[slostang]

Stony Brook vs Cal Poly would be interesting. Who goes where on this coast to coast match up ?

Which ever team steps up with a large playoff bid (money).

[Engineer86]

Probably. I think the OVC has some teams with some wins (EIU beat Southern Illinois, for instance) that the PL doesn't have the fortune of having. Both teams should be in the play-in, though if Lehigh runs the table I do think they'll get a bye.

Tenn st does not have that victory.

[KATS_21]

I think it's highly unlikely that the SLC gets more than 2 teams in. The way I see it the Big Sky is going to take 3 at large spots, the MVFC at least 1, the SOCON at least 2, and the CAA at least 3. That only leaves one more at large spot open for the OVC/SLC/PL and that last spot could get vulched by another team from the MVFC, CAA, or SOCON.

I completely agree. It will be interesting to see what happens if SFA, SHSU and UCA all win out. The SLC autobid would go to SFA and either UCA or Sam would be left out of the playoffs.

I could see SFA being the SLC co-champion but having to go on the road and either SHSU or UCA could get a home game or two.

[MTfan4life]

Stony Brook vs Cal Poly would be interesting. Who goes where on this coast to coast match up ?

The only shred of comparison I can find is the last time each has hosted a playoff game, and yes both were during thanksgiving weekend. Last season Stony Brook had a reported attendance of 8286 against Albany and in 2008 Cal Poly hosted Weber State and had a reported attendance of 6919.

[Bisonwinagn]

I completely agree. It will be interesting to see what happens if SFA, SHSU and UCA all win out. The SLC autobid would go to SFA and either UCA or Sam would be left out of the playoffs.

I could see SFA being the SLC co-champion but having to go on the road and either SHSU or UCA could get a home game or two.

Home games are based on the amount of money each school pays (bids). Records mean nothing except the top 5 teams host.

[superman7515]

Tenn st does not have that victory.

Tennessee State has a Top 25 win and has the "harder" schedule so far (TSU 206 - LU 224).

TSU remaining schedule:
vs. Tennessee Tech #200
at Murray State #167
at Tennessee Martin #144

Lehigh remaining schedule:
at Holy Cross #212
vs Colgate #165
at Lafayette #181

Tennessee-Martin has a good chance of being ranked when they face TSU, so if TSU goes 10-1 (just using your scenario) they will have the harder schedule and two wins over Top 25 teams. I think they would be viewed more favorably than an 11-0 Lehigh that had not faced a ranked opponent all season.

[ThreadStopper]

Stony Brook vs Cal Poly would be interesting. Who goes where on this coast to coast match up ?

If Poly has to play Stony Brook I hope it is in Frisco, Texas!

[ecasadoSBU]

If Poly has to play Stony Brook I hope it is in Frisco, Texas!


Fair enough! That would probably mean 1000 in total attendance at Frisco....

[WileECoyote06]

Tennessee State has a Top 25 win and has the "harder" schedule so far (TSU 206 - LU 224).

TSU remaining schedule:
vs. Tennessee Tech #200
at Murray State #167
at Tennessee Martin #144

Lehigh remaining schedule:
at Holy Cross #212
vs Colgate #165
at Lafayette #181

Tennessee-Martin has a good chance of being ranked when they face TSU, so if TSU goes 10-1 (just using your scenario) they will have the harder schedule and two wins over Top 25 teams. I think they would be viewed more favorably than an 11-0 Lehigh that had not faced a ranked opponent all season.

Was BCU ranked when they played? I'd imagine that if BCU finishes off their conference schedule unscathed, with TSU only having one loss and moving into the top 15; BCU will re-enter the top-25. That would give TSU three top-25 wins, a resume as good as any in the country, in the eyes of the playoff committee.

But I do hope my Eagles go punch BCU in the mouth this weekend. :D

[kalm]

Was BCU ranked when they played? I'd imagine that if BCU finishes off their conference schedule unscathed, with TSU only having one loss and moving into the top 15; BCU will re-enter the top-25. That would give TSU three top-25 wins, a resume as good as any in the country, in the eyes of the playoff committee.


No it wouldn't. Their OOC schedule was weak and the OVC is less regarded than the big four. Would they deserve to get in without the auto bid? Probably. But lets not get carried away with the whole resume thing. Go see the ignore the records thread.

[WileECoyote06]

No it wouldn't. Their OOC schedule was weak and the OVC is less regarded than the big four. Would they deserve to get in without the auto bid? Probably. But lets not get carried away with the whole resume thing. Go see the ignore the records thread.

Three top-25 wins is three top-25 wins. The playoff committee will look at this favorably, no matter the conference. The better conference schedule will be reflected in your SOS ratings; and that will considered as well. You better hope that the Coaches and TSN poll don't start looking favorably at Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

Any team that wins their conference and has wins over the champions of two other conferences along with two other top-25 wins. . . if that isn't a great resume, there's no point to playing the games. Just award all the spots to the 'big four' and the rest of us should move down to division II.

Oh and that throw out the records thread is annoying. At this point in the season, you are who your record says you are. .

[Twentysix]

Three top-25 wins is three top-25 wins. The playoff committee will look at this favorably, no matter the conference. The better conference schedule will be reflected in your SOS ratings; and that will considered as well. You better hope that the Coaches and TSN poll don't start looking favorably at Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

Any team that wins their conference and has wins over the champions of two other conferences along with two other top-25 wins. . . if that isn't a great resume, there's no point to playing the games. Just award all the spots to the 'big four' and the rest of us should move down to division II.

Oh and that throw out the records thread is annoying. At this point in the season, you are who your record says you are. .

I feel like people who think this, watch to much NFL football and think they can apply it to College ball.

The problem with this is there are more than 100 teams in our division alone... if we had 32 teams that theory would work fine.

[WileECoyote06]

I feel like people who think this, watch to much NFL football and think they can apply it to College ball.

The problem with this is there are more than 100 teams in our division alone... if we had 32 teams that theory would work fine.

And people who think the opposite way want to equate FCS ball with FBS/BCS ball. They aren't equal.

Teams in the 'Big Four' conferences presumably have access to better coaches, better facilities, and presumably better athletes. And everyone in those conferences has those advantages. So when you enter your conference play, you are facing teams that should be somewhat equal to you. However FCS and its playoff structure is intended to reward both the 'stronger conferences' and the 'weaker conferences' based on the success against their individual schedules; and the strength of their schedule.

Is Northern Iowa a better team than TSU? Maybe. .. did UNI perform better against their schedule than TSU? Nope. I've stated before that IMHO playoff selection is more about who you beat than who you lose to, and at this point in the season, my ranking philosophy is heavily influenced by who I feel will advance to the playoffs. If playoff eligible team is eliminated from the playoff chase already then I see no need to rank them.

[NHwildEcat]

I am still a firm believer that UNH will win out and capture the CAA Auto-Bid and only have one FCS loss and that by a whole 3 points to ODU.

Does anyone think that would land UNH a seed?

[kalm]

Three top-25 wins is three top-25 wins. The playoff committee will look at this favorably, no matter the conference. The better conference schedule will be reflected in your SOS ratings; and that will considered as well. You better hope that the Coaches and TSN poll don't start looking favorably at Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

Any team that wins their conference and has wins over the champions of two other conferences along with two other top-25 wins. . . if that isn't a great resume, there's no point to playing the games. Just award all the spots to the 'big four' and the rest of us should move down to division II. .

You said:


a resume as good as any in the country, in the eyes of the playoff committee.

It's the quality of the "top 25" teams/conference champions that needs to be questioned. Those conferences and those wins are not equal. Compare TSU's schedule to NAU who has the same record and tell me with a straight face that TSU's is as good. And this in a year where NAU doesn't play Montana State or EWU and may finish 4th in the conference.

[kalm]

And people who think the opposite way want to equate FCS ball with FBS/BCS ball. They aren't equal.

Teams in the 'Big Four' conferences presumably have access to better coaches, better facilities, and presumably better athletes. And everyone in those conferences has those advantages. So when you enter your conference play, you are facing teams that should be somewhat equal to you. However FCS and its playoff structure is intended to reward both the 'stronger conferences' and the 'weaker conferences' based on the success against their individual schedules; and the strength of their schedule.

Is Northern Iowa a better team than TSU? Maybe. .. did UNI perform better against their schedule than TSU? Nope. I've stated before that IMHO playoff selection is more about who you beat than who you lose to, and at this point in the season, my ranking philosophy is heavily influenced by who I feel will advance to the playoffs. If playoff eligible team is eliminated from the playoff chase already then I see no need to rank them.

I thought the playoffs were for the 20 best teams. Same with the rankings. Good grief, with that mindset maybe you should move down to DII

[WrenFGun]

I am still a firm believer that UNH will win out and capture the CAA Auto-Bid and only have one FCS loss and that by a whole 3 points to ODU.

Does anyone think that would land UNH a seed?

It depends; currently, a number of teams have better resumes, including ODU (they beat us), NDSU, Ga. Southern, Eastern Washington, Cal Poly. Those would be my five seeds right now.

You also have similar teams as us: Wofford (win over 5-3 Appalachian State), Montana State (only loss to EWU), Stony Brook (FBS win, only loss to FBS), Villanova (win over ODU, but loss to Richmond).

I think UNH and Wofford are kind of the next two in the pecking order after the five I listed above. I'd probably rank them NDSU, EWU, Ga. Southern, ODU, Cal Poly, with UNH and Wofford the next two.

[WileECoyote06]

You said:



It's the quality of the "top 25" teams/conference champions that needs to be questioned. Those conferences and those wins are not equal. Compare TSU's schedule to NAU who has the same record and tell me with a straight face that TSU's is as good. And this in a year where NAU doesn't play Montana State or EWU and may finish 4th in the conference.

NAU is having a great season so far, and their ranking reflects that. You can disagree with my philosophy about TSU's resume; it's my opinion. At the end of the season NAU will have a win or a loss against a Top-25 team; while TSU will have a win, maybe even two or three against Top 25 teams. NAU got a break with their schedule and can coast to the playoffs.
If things go exactly like how I predicted, and that's a tall order, and NAU loses to Cal Poly as expected, then yes I'd argue that TSU has a better resume than NAU. This is all speculation, and we've got four weeks to go.

But let's use them in another argument, if they win the Big Sky auto-bid with an 7 - 1 record (having lost to Cal Poly; who beats E. Washington); do they deserve a top three seed?

[kalm]

NAU is having a great season so far, and their ranking reflects that. You can disagree with my philosophy about TSU's resume; it's my opinion. At the end of the season NAU will have a win or a loss against a Top-25 team; while TSU will have a win, maybe even two or three against Top 25 teams. NAU got a break with their schedule and can coast to the playoffs.
If things go exactly like how I predicted, and that's a tall order, and NAU loses to Cal Poly as expected, then yes I'd argue that TSU has a better resume than NAU. This is all speculation, and we've got four weeks to go.

But let's use them in another argument, if they win the Big Sky auto-bid with an 7 - 1 record (having lost to Cal Poly; who beats E. Washington); do they deserve a top three seed?

No, Poly would. And all three would be more deserving of a seed or an at-large than a TSU team with an equal record or even one less loss.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Cal Poly vs Stoney Brook
Lehigh vs JMU winner vs 1) North Dakota State

Wofford vs 5) ODU
Albany vs N Hampshire winner vs 4) Sam Houston State

Montana State vs Illinois State
N. Arizona vs EKU winner vs 2) E Washington

Tenn State vs Villanova
Bethune vs C. Arkansas winner vs 3) GSU

Autobids - Albany - NEC, Villanova-CAA, GSU-Southern, E. Washington -Big Sky, Tenn State - OVC, NDSU - MVC, Lehigh- Patriot, Sam Houston State - Southland, Stony Brook - Big South, Behtune-MEAC

At Large - Mont State, ODU, Cal Poly, N. Arizona, EKU, N. Hampshire, JMU, Illinois State, C. Arkansas, Wofford

This weeks bubble teams - UTC, ASU, South dakota State, Tenn Martin, Delaware, Indiana State, Elon, Richmond

DEVELOPING STORY LINES...

-Lots of losses in the 10-25 range this week
-Conference Titles are more foggy than last week???
-Still do not beieve that a 4 loss at-large team will make the field

1) I wouldn't call South Dakota State a "bubble team". Sure it'll be hard for them to win 3 of the next 4, but don't count them out yet.
2) If App. State loses at GSU and finishes 7-4, I think they will be hosting a wild card game simply by virtue of their attendance.
3) If Wofford wins out I think they should get a seed.

[NHwildEcat]

It depends; currently, a number of teams have better resumes, including ODU (they beat us), NDSU, Ga. Southern, Eastern Washington, Cal Poly. Those would be my five seeds right now.

You also have similar teams as us: Wofford (win over 5-3 Appalachian State), Montana State (only loss to EWU), Stony Brook (FBS win, only loss to FBS), Villanova (win over ODU, but loss to Richmond).

I think UNH and Wofford are kind of the next two in the pecking order after the five I listed above. I'd probably rank them NDSU, EWU, Ga. Southern, ODU, Cal Poly, with UNH and Wofford the next two.

I think my thought is if UNH is the auto-bid, even with that loss to ODU shouldn't they out of those two be the team who gains the seed (if either were to gain one?). It would seem odd to me if you wins the CAA and ODU falls a game short but they still get the ranking. Maybe I am just not thinking it as logically as I should, but it would seem strange to me.

[WrenFGun]

I think my thought is if UNH is the auto-bid, even with that loss to ODU shouldn't they out of those two be the team who gains the seed (if either were to gain one?). It would seem odd to me if you wins the CAA and ODU falls a game short but they still get the ranking. Maybe I am just not thinking it as logically as I should, but it would seem strange to me.

I mean, if ODU were to finish, say, 10-1 with their only loss to Villanova, and UNH finished 9-2 with their only FBS loss to ODU, I'd think the only team with an argument to be seeded over ODU would be a 9-2 Villanova if they were to win out. Otherwise, I can't see any rationale reason why a 10-1 ODU would lose out on a seed to 9-2 UNH. ODU can't win the CAA because of a technicality, but I don't think that should impact seeding.

Now if UNH wins the CAA and ODU loses another game, then yeah, I think all bets are off and you could make the argument for UNH as a seed if 'Nova and JMU don't win out. If either Nova or JMU do win out, have to think they'd be above us in the pecking order given the challenging down the stretch schedules.

[superman7515]

I thought the playoffs were for the 20 best teams. Same with the rankings. Good grief, with that mindset maybe you should move down to DII

Absolutely not. As long as there are autobids, the playoffs will never be about the 20 best teams (or 24 next year). I'm not saying they should get rid of them, but to suggest that just because someone won their conference they are one of the 20 best teams in the nation is patently false.

[kalm]

Absolutely not. As long as there are autobids, the playoffs will never be about the 20 best teams (or 24 next year). I'm not saying they should get rid of them, but to suggest that just because someone won their conference they are one of the 20 best teams in the nation is patently false.

You are absolutely correct. I should have said the at-larges, seeds, and polls should reflect the best teams.

[NHwildEcat]

Absolutely not. As long as there are autobids, the playoffs will never be about the 20 best teams (or 24 next year). I'm not saying they should get rid of them, but to suggest that just because someone won their conference they are one of the 20 best teams in the nation is patently false.

Agreed. The playoffs are for the best teams from EACH conference plus the remaining at-large best teams (and even then we can debate all year as to the last few selections).

[WileECoyote06]

Absolutely not. As long as there are autobids, the playoffs will never be about the 20 best teams (or 24 next year). I'm not saying they should get rid of them, but to suggest that just because someone won their conference they are one of the 20 best teams in the nation is patently false.

Thanks. Also, ironically Division II doesn't grant autobids. So with the exception of their earned access philosophy, they actually do try to allow the 24 best teams to advance.

[Jazzman1522]

Agreed. The playoffs are for the best teams from EACH conference plus the remaining at-large best teams (and even then we can debate all year as to the last few selections).

The only way to eliminate controversy in the playoffs is to do away with at large bids completely, which I'm sure nobody wants to see. That's why I think it's funny when they talk about expanding the basketball tourney. If you let 128 teams in (Which would be ridiculous), then team 129 is gonna be ticked that they didn't make it.

[WileECoyote06]

The only way to eliminate controversy in the playoffs is to do away with at large bids completely, which I'm sure nobody wants to see. That's why I think it's funny when they talk about expanding the basketball tourney. If you let 128 teams in (Which would be ridiculous), then team 129 is gonna be ticked that they didn't make it.

Every single year there is controversy; and every single year we come right back as the fanatics that we are; no matter the level or sport. Coaches lobby for their teams, but if you want to eliminate bias/controversy/unfairness, the simplest solution is to win as many games as you can and don't leave your berth in the hands of a committee.

[ODUsmitty]

Thanks. Also, ironically Division II doesn't grant autobids. So with the exception of their earned access philosophy, they actually do try to allow the 24 best teams to advance.

WileE-

Looks like NCCU is in the mix for one of those autobids. This ODU fan is rooting for you guys, as I remember well the hospitality shown our team when we visited your stadium. It was much appreciated and remembered by many.

Good luck!

[WileECoyote06]

WileE-

Looks like NCCU is in the mix for one of those autobids. This ODU fan is rooting for you guys, as I remember well the hospitality shown our team when we visited your stadium. It was much appreciated and remembered by many.

Good luck!

I appreciate the well-wishes. Realistically my team has yet to record a win against a team with a winning record. If we continue our revenge tour at Bethune-Cookman, then I'll be even more excited/hopeful.

[KATS_21]

Home games are based on the amount of money each school pays (bids). Records mean nothing except the top 5 teams host.

You are correct, I meant that UCA or SHSU will get a 4 or 5 seed and will host a game or two at home. If SFA wins out, my guess is that they will not be seeded.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

If Poly has to play Stony Brook I hope it is in Frisco, Texas!

There would be about 3,000 people at that game.

[Humble Steward]

Was BCU ranked when they played? I'd imagine that if BCU finishes off their conference schedule unscathed, with TSU only having one loss and moving into the top 15; BCU will re-enter the top-25. That would give TSU three top-25 wins, a resume as good as any in the country, in the eyes of the playoff committee.

But I do hope my Eagles go punch BCU in the mouth this weekend. :D

See you in Daytona Beachxcoffeex.

[MTfan4life]

1. Cal Poly
@Sam Houston State
Tennessee Martin


@Montana State
Central Arkansas


5. Eastern Washington
Wofford

@New Hampshire
Albany

4. Old Dominion


3. Georgia Southern
@Bethune-Cookman
Eastern Kentucky


@Villanova
Lehigh


@Indiana State
Stony Brook

@Northern Arizona
Stephen F. Austin

2. North Dakota State

In this scenario, not one team with more that one FCS loss is selected for an at-large berth. Last teams in are Northern Arizona and Tennessee Martin. Last teams out are Richmond and South Dakota State.

[ExpandSpanos]

Which ever team steps up with a large playoff bid (money).

You're right about that.. and I'm guessing that would be Stony Brook.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R23aTcl7gwc

Anyway, last time Cal Poly headed out East things turned up alright...

[Seawolf97]

If Poly has to play Stony Brook I hope it is in Frisco, Texas!

Amen to that! Coast to Coast Championship Game. Good luck going forward !

[Seawolf97]

There would be about 3,000 people at that game.

So the whole State of North Dakota would show up -minus the cows.

[ThreadStopper]

There would be about 3,000 people at that game.

In Texas when they turn on the stadium lights on at least 3,000 show up to see who is playing!

[ITmonarch10]

You're right about that.. and I'm guessing that would be Stony Brook.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R23aTcl7gwc

Anyway, last time Cal Poly headed out East things turned up alright...

That brings back memories, we weren't even in the CAA at that time. It not to late to play the FCS start up card is it :D. I would love to play Cal Poly again.

[KATS_21]

1. Cal Poly
@Sam Houston State
Tennessee Martin


@Montana State
Central Arkansas


5. Eastern Washington
Wofford

@New Hampshire
Albany

4. Old Dominion


3. Georgia Southern
@Bethune-Cookman
Eastern Kentucky


@Villanova
Lehigh


@Indiana State
Stony Brook

@Northern Arizona
Stephen F. Austin

2. North Dakota State

In this scenario, not one team with more that one FCS loss is selected for an at-large berth. Last teams in are Northern Arizona and Tennessee Martin. Last teams out are Richmond and South Dakota State.

I like your scenario of 3 Southland teams getting in, but I doubt it will happen.

With your bracket I also would feel pretty good about Sam Houston's chances on getting back to Frisco.

[Bisonwinagn]

I like your scenario of 3 Southland teams getting in, but I doubt it will happen.

With your bracket I also would feel pretty good about Sam Houston's chances on getting back to Frisco.

IF SFA wins the autobid who are you leaving out? SAM or UCA considering UCA won the head to head. I think its a lock they all get in if they win out as teams from other major conferences will beat up on each other. Although if one of the teams loses its a mute point.

[MTfan4life]

I like your scenario of 3 Southland teams getting in, but I doubt it will happen.

With your bracket I also would feel pretty good about Sam Houston's chances on getting back to Frisco.

I understand what you're getting at, but it's not really the debate of how many bids a conference should get, it's more of a debate of would the committee leave out a 1 FCS loss top 15 school? If they both win their remaining FCS games, both UCA and SHSU will be at least top 15 and possibly top 10. I don't think they would leave either team out and therefore I have both garnering at large bids in this scenario.

[KATS_21]

I understand what you're getting at, but it's not really the debate of how many bids a conference should get, it's more of a debate of would the committee leave out a 1 FCS loss top 15 school? If they both win their remaining FCS games, both UCA and SHSU will be at least top 15 and possibly top 10. I don't think they would leave either team out and therefore I have both garnering at large bids in this scenario.

I have no problem with Sam or UCA making it, it's SFA that bothers me the most. I can see 2 SLC teams with 1 conference loss, just not sure who those two teams will be. Sam Houston has the easiest remaining schedule.

Still a few games left, so hopefully the teams ahead of Sam Houston all lose a game or 2. I would love to see the Kats get a 4-5 seed if possible, but they need a few upsets in the next few weeks to make that happen.

[BEAR]

So you're saying:

SFA gets the autobid.
UCA gets the at large because of head to head win agaiinst Sam.
Sam gets left out?

NO -FREAKIN'-WAY! Is that right? xconfusedx

That's of course if all 3 win out the rest of the season of course.

[ITmonarch10]

So you're saying:

SFA gets the autobid.
UCA gets the at large because of head to head win agaiinst Sam.
Sam gets left out?

NO -FREAKIN'-WAY! Is that right? xconfusedx

That's of course if all 3 win out the rest of the season of course.

Hey its your fault for beating Sam Houston then losing to SFA. Also, Sam Houston's fault for having one of the crappiest schedules in FCS history. Honestly, I think SFA will lose another game and make this a none issue.

[KATS_21]

So you're saying:

SFA gets the autobid.
UCA gets the at large because of head to head win agaiinst Sam.
Sam gets left out?

NO -FREAKIN'-WAY! Is that right? xconfusedx

That's of course if all 3 win out the rest of the season of course.

Yep that is what would happen unless, Sam pulls the upset in College Station (99% unlikely) or the SLC gets 3 teams in.

The SLC has the wackiest tie-breaker ever, the team with the longest playoff drought gets the auto-bid.

[KATS_21]

Hey its your fault for beating Sam Houston then losing to SFA. Also, Sam Houston's fault for having one of the crappiest schedules in FCS history. Honestly, I think SFA will lose another game and make this a none issue.


Thats my guess as well, I dont see there be being 3 1-loss teams at the end of conference play.