FCS Bracketology

[Professor Chaos]

Seeing as how we've hit the halfway point of the regular season I think we can start making reasonable playoff projections. Here's my stab at it:

Autobids in CAPS

Winner of Northern Arizona @ LEHIGH
at
(1) NORTH DAKOTA ST

SAM HOUSTON ST
at
Cal Poly

Winner of New Hampshire @ ALBANY
at
(4) Eastern Washington

Georgia Southern
at
(5) Old Dominion

Winner of BETHUNE-COOKMAN @ Illinois St
at
(2) MONTANA ST

STONY BROOK
at
Appalachian St

Winner of TENNESSEE ST @ South Dakota St
at
(3) JAMES MADISON

WOFFORD
at
Youngstown St


Bids by conference:
Big Sky, MVFC: 4
CAA, SOCON: 3
Soutland, OVC, Patriot, Big South, NEC, MEAC: 1

Last 4 in: Northern Arizona, New Hampshire, Illinois St, South Dakota St
First 4 out: Towson, Central Arkansas, Samford, McNeese St

[van]

How does App State get a first round bye? 3rd best team from SoCon gets a bye?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Beat me to it while I was trying to make my bracket look just right.

[Engineer86]

I would argue that an undefeated Lehigh would get a first round bye, but I honestly can't give you a team that they would replace in what you have. Not sure if match ups are determined by strength of team, if it does I doubt we get NAU of the first round teams if undefeated.

Also no seed from SoCon, but two from CAA and BSC, not sure about that when it all plays out.

[Professor Chaos]

How does App State get a first round bye? 3rd best team from SoCon gets a bye?
That is a bit questionable. At this point Lehigh could make argument over them. I felt that App's wins are better quality than Lehigh's.


I would argue that an undefeated Lehigh would get a first round bye, but I honestly can't give you a team that they would replace in what you have. Not sure if match ups are determined by strength of team, if it does I doubt we get NAU of the first round teams if undefeated.

Also no seed from SoCon, but two from CAA and BSC, not sure about that when it all plays out.
I do my projection a little different than some. I'm basing it off of where the teams stand now as if the playoffs started next week. I'm not predicting how every team will finish the year.

[Twentysix]

(4) Eastern Washington (2) MONTANA ST

How does 2 loss EWU get seeded with a loss to MSU when one loss YSU is not seeded and their only loss is to the #1 seed?

Maybe you have YSU losing another game? Just curious.

I am understanding your records as EWU (4) 9-2(win over idaho [WAC]); MSU (2) 10-0 (No fbs); YSU 10-1 (win over Pitt [Big East]) is this correct?

[hebmskebm]

Wouldn't a 10-1 Stony Brook (with the one loss being FBS, and another FBS win on their resume) be in consideration for a seed? Depending on how things shake out they could be right there.

[Twentysix]

Wouldn't a 10-1 Stony Brook (with the one loss being FBS, and another FBS win on their resume) be in consideration for a seed? Depending on how things shake out they could be right there.

Very possibly, really depends on where every team stands.

[Professor Chaos]

How does 2 loss EWU get seeded with a loss to MSU when one loss YSU is not seeded and their only loss is to the #1 seed?

Maybe you have YSU losing another game? Just curious.

I am understanding your records as EWU (4) 9-2(win over idaho [WAC]); MSU (2) 10-0 (No fbs); YSU 10-1 (win over Pitt [Big East]) is this correct?
Eastern only has one loss right now. Again, I'm not predicting the full 11 games in my projection, I'm just projecting what I think the field would be right now if the playoffs started this weekend similar to how Joe Lunardi does his NCAA tourney projections in basketball. Personally, I think it's a much more interesting way to do it because the projections are based solely on proven performance so far rather than potential in future games which adds a whole new layer of speculation to an already argumentative topic.

EDIT: I also just noticed that I have SHSU with the Southland auto-bid which is counter-intuitive to my "performance so far only" basis. Too late now but I'll fix that if I do one of these again next week.

[Twentysix]

Eastern only has one loss right now. Again, I'm not predicting the full 11 games in my projection, I'm just projecting what I think the field would be right now if the playoffs started this weekend similar to how Joe Lunardi does his NCAA tourney projections in basketball. Personally, I think it's a much more interesting way to do it because the projections are based solely on proven performance so far rather than potential in future games which adds a whole new layer of speculation to an already argumentative topic.

EDIT: I also just noticed that I have SHSU with the Southland auto-bid which is counter-intuitive to my "performance so far only" basis. Too late now but I'll fix that if I do one of these again next week.

Ah that explains it then.

[MTfan4life]

How does App State get a first round bye? 3rd best team from SoCon gets a bye?

Wofford was the third team in last season from the socon and they had a first round bye.

[Mr. Pink]

I really hope GSU doesn't have to play ODU again... That game gave me heart palpitations...

[AppAlum2003]

If Wofford wins out they get a seed, plain and simple.