AGS Playoff Projection...Aggregate Member Selections

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Here's the way the sum total for AGS Members looks going into the final week of the season.

AGS Aggregate Projections Through Week 11 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Aph2Xme278kGdFpMNklwYWxhWFFUcldZWU8zTW5Ma2c&output=html)

The link at the top of the page reflects this same result now too.

[Engineer86]

Ugh, Lehigh to UNI again? Let's hope Lehigh put in a big bid. Either place, I would think both fan bases would prefer a different/new matchup. Overall it looks pretty good, but I would think any easy switch is the UNH winner and YSU winner to avoid the NDSU-YSU rematch so early.

[van]

2 comments I would make, Albany - UNH, does either have a stadium to host a game? and Lehigh to UNI and ODU to Montana does not follow the geographical rules, more likely would be UNI to Montana and Lehigh to ODU.

[FargoBison]

2 comments I would make, Albany - UNH, does either have a stadium to host a game? and Lehigh to UNI and ODU to Montana does not follow the geographical rules, more likely would be UNI to Montana and Lehigh to ODU.

If it isn't a bus trip, you can throw geography out the window. Would those teams bus to play each other? Montana and UNI definitely wouldn't.

[Engineer86]

If it isn't a bus trip, you can throw geography out the window. Would those teams bus to play each other? Montana and UNI definitely wouldn't.

If my recollection of 400 miles being the bus limit, they would bus. It is about 300 miles.

[ngineer]

Lehigh would certainly bus to ODU.

I also wouldn't mind playing UNI again, only this time at Goodman!

[FargoBison]

If my recollection of 400 miles being the bus limit, they would bus. It is about 300 miles.

I'd say it is possible then, maybe even likely(especially if UNI loses).

[Dallas Demon]

Unless Ga. Southern beats Alabama, there's no way they get a higher seed than Sam Houston assuming the Bearkats don't lose to Texas St.

[Engineer86]

Unless Ga. Southern beats Alabama, there's no way they get a higher seed than Sam Houston assuming the Bearkats don't lose to Texas St.

The more I look at the Southland conference. I have to saw, you guys are in for a big surprise. This conference has done nothing since McNeese St in 2002. Welcome to Patriot League level. Four or five seed at best.

All those poll votes do not equal committee confidence and there is little to base confidence on. I think there is actually a chance you do not get seeded. Certainly a better chance of that than getting a 1 or 2 seed.

[TexasTerror]

How does SHSU drop this week from the previous week? And Georgia Southern rises from non-seed to seed - despite everyone knowing that they are likely to take a loss this week? This bracket release on Sunday is sure shaping up to be an interesting one, particularly if SHSU takes care of business on Saturday...

[Catbooster]

Even though I said I think you'll get a 1 or 2 seed, and still think so, don't forget Eastern Washington last year. I believe they were #1 on both polls and got the #5 seed.

[MTfan4life]

2 comments I would make, Albany - UNH, does either have a stadium to host a game? and Lehigh to UNI and ODU to Montana does not follow the geographical rules, more likely would be UNI to Montana and Lehigh to ODU.

This is simply a consensus of all the people who submitted a bracket. SHSU dropped because with NDSU losing and with Georgia Southern winning, a lot of people wanted to put them in a top 3 seed. The teams are mostly placed in the mode position they were in with all the brackets. UNI was the highest placed non-seed, so they get a home game in this bracket. Montana was next, followed by App St. They are going to assign home games based off $ anyways, but this is just an average or mode of all the brackets.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Even though I said I think you'll get a 1 or 2 seed, and still think so, don't forget Eastern Washington last year. I believe they were #1 on both polls and got the #5 seed.

I think that is a real good indicator in itself that the committee doesn't put a whole lot of stock into the polls and that they do tend to go off their own rankings more than the outside sources...although the outside indicators turned out to be correct in that instance.

[Dallas Demon]

The more I look at the Southland conference. I have to saw, you guys are in for a big surprise. This conference has done nothing since McNeese St in 2002. Welcome to Patriot League level. Four or five seed at best.

All those poll votes do not equal committee confidence and there is little to base confidence on. I think there is actually a chance you do not get seeded. Certainly a better chance of that than getting a 1 or 2 seed.

Playoff Results AFTER 2002:

Southland

2009 SFA advanced to the Quarterfinals
2005 Texas State advanced to the Semifinals
2004 Sam Houston advanced to the Semifinals

Qualifiers (11 total): 2010 SFA, 2008 Texas St., 2009, 2007, 2006, 2003 McNeese St., 2004 Northwestern St., 2005 Nicholls St. + 3 above


Patriot

2010 Lehigh advanced to the Quarterfinals
2003 Colgate advanced to the Finals

Qualifiers: 2004 Lehigh, 2008, 2005 Colgate, 2009 Holy Cross, 2006, 2005, 2004 Lafayette, 2007 Fordham + 2 above

The Southland is not quite at the level of the Patriot IMO, however we have not had the success that we are used to either SINCE 2002. Part of the issue that is skewing the results is that McNeese was all-world beaters during the regular season both in and out of conference during many of these years going into the playoffs as the #1 seed or very high seed, but laid an egg at home - who knows why. Also, if we look at AFTER 2003 or AFTER 2001 (or go back any year before 2001), it is clear that the Southland is much stronger than the Patriot. Take out the Colgate run in 2003 and the Patriot has little to stand on regarding playoff success.

[ASUMountaineer]

Oh Lord, please don't make us play Maine again. DOH!

[van]

quick question, if Montana loses to Montana State, does it get a bye and home game as the brackets show?

I assume that its high attendance record might have a lot to do with this...

attendance has nothing to do with getting a bye. the committee will select the 12 best teams to get byes, and the remaining 8 get paired up based on geography and conference differences.

[SeattleGriz]

quick question, if Montana loses to Montana State, does it get a bye and home game as the brackets show?

I assume that its high attendance record might have a lot to do with this...

If Montana loses, then most likely they would get a first round bye. They would only have 2 FCS losses, with the latest coming at the hands of the #1 team in the nation. As to home games, Montana will ALWAYS have a home game unless they face a seeded team. Their attendance is too high and thus always submit bids that crush everyone else.

[Engineer86]

Playoff Results AFTER 2002:

Southland

2009 SFA advanced to the Quarterfinals
2005 Texas State advanced to the Semifinals
2004 Sam Houston advanced to the Semifinals

Qualifiers (11 total): 2010 SFA, 2008 Texas St., 2009, 2007, 2006, 2003 McNeese St., 2004 Northwestern St., 2005 Nicholls St. + 3 above


Patriot

2010 Lehigh advanced to the Quarterfinals
2003 Colgate advanced to the Finals

Qualifiers: 2004 Lehigh, 2008, 2005 Colgate, 2009 Holy Cross, 2006, 2005, 2004 Lafayette, 2007 Fordham + 2 above

The Southland is not quite at the level of the Patriot IMO, however we have not had the success that we are used to either SINCE 2002. Part of the issue that is skewing the results is that McNeese was all-world beaters during the regular season both in and out of conference during many of these years going into the playoffs as the #1 seed or very high seed, but laid an egg at home - who knows why. Also, if we look at AFTER 2003 or AFTER 2001 (or go back any year before 2001), it is clear that the Southland is much stronger than the Patriot. Take out the Colgate run in 2003 and the Patriot has little to stand on regarding playoff success.

Thanks, I think the Southland has shown a little better than the Patriot, but these two leagues are similar in that I would group them together. THe Patriot League has only played in the playoffs since 1998. We wanted to copy the Ivies for some unknown reason. This is why I would argue it SHSU gets seeded 1 or 2, Lehigh will have a good chance at a seed. I think both are unlikely.

[danefan]

Albany is 240 miles to UNH.

If both are in the first round, they will be playing.

[MTfan4life]

Albany is 240 miles to UNH.

If both are in the first round, they will be playing.

Correction sir. Last season Robert Morris and Lehigh were both in the first round. Robert Morris is about 310 miles from Lehigh. However, they both traveled to MVFC schools. It's not a guarantee.

[danefan]

Correction sir. Last season Robert Morris and Lehigh were both in the first round. Robert Morris is about 310 miles from Lehigh. However, they both traveled to MVFC schools. It's not a guarantee.

That was only because NDSUand UNI couldn't play each other in the first round.

The way things are going now, it's very unlikely to have a similar first round situation

But yes, it's possible.

[Dallas Demon]

Thanks, I think the Southland has shown a little better than the Patriot, but these two leagues are similar in that I would group them together. THe Patriot League has only played in the playoffs since 1998. We wanted to copy the Ivies for some unknown reason. This is why I would argue it SHSU gets seeded 1 or 2, Lehigh will have a good chance at a seed. I think both are unlikely.

If you go back to 1998, the Southland really shines with the following additions:

1998 - Northwestern St. advanced to the Semifinals (McNeese St., Troy qualified)
1999 - Troy advanced to the Quarterfinals
2000 - (McNeese St, Troy qualified)
2001 - Sam Houston advanced to the Quarterfinals (McNeese St., Northwestern St. qualified)
2002 - McNeese St. advanced to the Finals (Northwestern St. qualified)

[danefan]

If you go back to 1998, the Southland really shines with the following additions:

1998 - Northwestern St. advanced to the Semifinals (McNeese St., Troy qualified)
1999 - Troy advanced to the Quarterfinals
2000 - (McNeese St, Troy qualified)
2001 - Sam Houston advanced to the Quarterfinals (McNeese St., Northwestern St. qualified)
2002 - McNeese St. advanced to the Finals (Northwestern St. qualified)

The FCS world is a way different place then it was at that point. shoot, the CAA didn't even exist them.

[WileECoyote06]

From my understanding of the rules, the Youngstown-Norfolk to NDSU bracket can't occur. They do not allow teams that have played in the regular season to have an opening game against each other.

Also, Liberty/Norfolk, Towson/Lehigh, App State/ODU all fit within the 400 mile rule.